Pundits' Guide to Canadian Elections

Current Party Standings and Nominations

 ConsNDPLibBQGrnOthIndTOTAL
Won in last general election1661033441  308
By-election vacancies-9-3-3    -15
By-election wins825    15
Left the caucus-3-7-2-3  -3-18
[Re-]Joined the caucus1 11121218
Vacancies      -22
CURRENT STANDINGS16395352227306
Retiring Incumbents25852  141
Nominated - Own Caucus1316730 222234
Nominated - Different Caucus 1     1
Nominated - Non-incumbents6346164129341338

Earlier Blog Posts

Conservative Software Project Went Into Production in 2013, Financial Statements Show

July 3rd, 2014

[Welcome, National Newswatch readers!] The Conservative Party's mysterious software project was no longer listed as an "asset under development", but rather full-fledged "computer software", in financial statements the party recently filed with Elections Canada for the 2013 calendar year. This is one of several storylines to emerge from the 2013 annual financial statements just filed […]

[more]

June By-election Turnout: How low could we go? (You don’t want to know)

July 1st, 2014

Until Monday, Canada had never had a federal by-election with turnout under 20%. As of today – Canada Day – we've had two of them. Whether by accident or design, the decision by the Prime Minister to hold four federal by-elections on the Monday between a summer weekend and a statuatory holiday led to the […]

[more]

Three Strategic Lessons and Seven Kinds of Ridings from the Ontario Election

June 16th, 2014

[Welcome, National Newswatch readers!] As always, the real data story is found in the cross-tabs. The Ontario Liberals and Ontario NDP each gained a percentage point in popular support in Thursday's election, but they did not do so evenly, nor in the same places. Unfortunately for the Ontario Progressive Conservatives, they lost nearly everywhere. The […]

[more]

UPDATED: GUEST POST – The Morning After: Valid Minority Government Options in Ontario

June 12th, 2014

Late last month I attended some of the Canadian Political Science Association's annual meeting sessions and live-tweeted them. One session that was very interesting, but was in part too fast to live-tweet, was on the issue of constitutional conventions in the case of a minority government. The panel included Professor Peter Russell, former Ontario Premier […]

[more]

Summer By-elections to Challenge Party Organizations

May 12th, 2014

[Welcome, National Newswatch readers!] What if they called a by-election and nobody came … out to vote, that is. That's the challenge now facing candidates and campaigners in the four federal by-elections called Sunday for Monday, June 30. The day before Canada Day. On what probably half the country will try to take off work […]

[more]

The Rules Menu: Party Nomination Processes, Three Ways

May 1st, 2014

Canada's three major political parties are conducting candidate nominations in often very different ways from one another in the current election cycle, but those differences are getting lost in all the hand-waving from some pundits about how "they all do it, and they're all the same". As we start into the process of tracking nominations […]

[more]

RE-UPDATED: Fifteen MP Retirements and Their Impact in 2015

April 22nd, 2014

[Welcome, National Newswatch readers!] Thirty new ridings, plus now fourteen fifteen retiring MPs and counting, adds up to a lot of open seats in the next election. And without the incumbency advantage, open seats always come with a higher risk of turnover. That means a lot of competitive races to watch in 2015. [UPDATE: Mike Allen also […]

[more]

UPDATED: Conservative 2015 Majority At Risk As Incumbents Flee to Safer Ground

April 14th, 2014

The Conservatives risk conceding the majority supposed to have been their due when 30 new seats were added to the House of Commons. In many of the 30 new ridings, sitting MPs have taken their incumbency advantage with them and fled to safer ground, leaving the remaining open seats more — and sometimes far more […]

[more]

Re-UPDATED: Once again, nomination races take early by-election focus

March 18th, 2014

[Welcome, National Newswatch readers!] A progressive Conservative in Macleod and a strong Libertarian [UPDATE: and New Democrat] in Fort McMurray-Athabasca are the only two three by-election candidates finalized so far, but the coming weeks will see a number of interesting nomination contests unfold. UPDATED: See below for Conservative nomination key dates in Fort McMurray-Athabasca. While […]

[more]

Open Nominations Pledge Now an Open Question

March 17th, 2014

[First published at NationalNewswatch.com, March 14, 2014] I was a believer on this pledge of Justin Trudeau’s, I really was. He made a persuasive argument during the Liberal leadership race to party members and new supporters that to rebuild the Liberal Party, every nomination had to be open, and no MP could expect to be […]

[more]