Commenter "jad" suggested earlier this week that it was about time to retire the Nov 9, 2009 by-election coverage from the top of the main page to its own blogpost, and get back to nominations progress for the 41st General Election. So for posterity here are the party scorecards and charts for future reference.



Validated Results (last updated: Nov. 20, 2009):

	New Westminster – Coquitlam, BC	Hochelaga, QC	Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, QC	Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, NS
Winner	DONNELLY, Fin (M)	PAILLÉ, Daniel (M)	GÉNÉREUX, Bernard (M)	ARMSTRONG, Scott (M)
Contest	NDP-Cons	BQ-NDP	Cons-BQ	Cons-NDP
Polls	225/225	219/219	257/257	245/245
%TO	29.9%	22.3%	36.6%	35.7%
Raw Margin	3376	5551	1425	4900
Votes/Poll	15.0	25.3	5.5	20.0
% Margin	13.8%	31.7%	5.0%	20.1%
% Marg 1-3	39.3%	36.9%	29.5%	24.5%
% Marg 1-4	45.3%	41.1%	37.9%	42.5%

Party Scorecard - 2009 By

2009 By	Lib	NDP	Grn	BQ	Cons	Rest
Vote Pct	14.9% (+0.9%)	24.8% (+5.4%)	2.0% (-1.6%)	21.0% (-3.1%)	36.0% (+13.4%)	1.3% (-15.0%)
Seats		1 (--)		1 (-1)	2 (+2)	(-1)
2nds	(-1)	2 (+1)		1 (+1)	1 (-1)
Rebate Eligib.	4 (+1)	3 (--)		2 (--)	4 (+2)	(-1)
Raw Vote	14,008 (-11,228)	23,245 (-11,444)	1,898 (-4,600)	19,726 (-23,488)	33,827 (-6,806)	1,204 (-27,987)

Coverage of the November 9, 2009 by-elections:

• Summary information on the November 9 By-elections, or click here for another view
• Detailed results for the four November 9 by-election ridings
• Blog posts

	NWC BC	"Chlag" Hochelaga, QC	MIKR QC	CCMV NS
Prev Contest	NDP-Cons	BQ-Lib	BQ-Cons	Ind-NDP
Prev Marg %	3.0%	29.1%	15.4%	56.7%
Elec History	link	link	link	link
Fin Metrics	link	link	link	link
Census Data	link	link	link	link
Google Maps	map	map	map	map
Blog Posts	read	read	read	read

Labels: Nov 9 2009 By-elections

The Conservatives defied nearly all the pundits Monday night, picking up a seat on the south shore of eastern Québec, and regaining their former seat in Nova Scotia more handily than some had expected. The Liberals were shut out of both first- and second-place finishes, but appear at least to have exceeded the 10% vote share threshold required to obtain candidate expense rebates in all four ridings (up from 3 in 2008).

Conservatives also topped the popular vote across the four ridings (with 35.7%), pushing the Bloc (who held that position last time) down to third place (at 20.8% for a drop of 3.3 percentage points) behind the NDP, who jumped a spot to second place with 24.4%. The Liberals kept 4th place in the popular vote, even though they placed 3rd in each riding. The Green Party pulled up the rear with 3.1% overall, down 0.6 percentage points, with no candidate earning a rebate. Their best performance was in New Westminster – Coquitlam, BC (4.3% of the vote), although they did edge out the Christian Heritage Party leader in Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, NS.

It was a disappointing night for the Bloc Québécois, losing their seat in Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, QC to the Conservatives, and with a drop in popular vote of 3.3 percentage points. New Democrats did not achieve the wildest dreams of their most optimistic supporters, but passed the Liberals in Hochelaga, QC, attained a record vote share in Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, NS, and obtained nearly half the vote in New Westminster – Coquitlam, BC. In fact, the BC race proved not to be close at all.

I should add that many observers were bemoaning the low turnout tonight, but in many cases it wound up higher than ridings in the March, 2008 by-elections.

For those readers who only usually access the Pundits' Guide via an RSS reader, you'll want to visit the site's main page today, to see the Party Election Scorecard, the By-Election Metrics Summary Table, various charts, and all the detailed data for each riding. All the relevant riding and local region charts have been updated as well.

Labels: Nov 9 2009 By-elections, Party Scorecard

With the polls set to close soon, let's take a look at the baseline that each party is starting from, as a way of reminding readers what the Party By-Election Scorecard is going to tell us.

First, a couple of views of the overall electoral history across those 4 ridings, starting with the Bar + Stacked Area Chart:



... and continuing with the Line + Bar Chart:



Then the baseline party scorecard:

Party Scorecard - 2009 By Baseline

2009 By	Lib	NDP	Grn	BQ	Cons	Rest
Prev VotePct	14.1%	19.3%	3.6%	24.1%	22.6%	16.3%
Prev Seats		1		2		1
Prev 2nds	1	1			2
Prev RebateEligib.	3	3		2	2	1
Prev RawVote	25,236	34,689	6,498	43,214	40,633	29,191

It's interesting to note that the Bloc was so strong in its two seats that it won the popular vote across all four, polling some 24.1%. The Conservatives followed with 22.6%, with the NDP third at 19.3%, and the "Rest" (mostly Bill Casey in CCMV) coming in fourth. The Liberals were already running fifth overall in popular vote (at 14.1%) in these four seats. However, they did earn the minimum of 10% needed to receive a candidate rebate in 3 of the 4 seats, as did the NDP, while the Conservatives and Bloc only achieved that threshold in 2 of them. The Bloc obviously held both Quebec seats, while the Conservatives achieved two second-place finishes. The NDP had one seat and one second-place finish, with Independent M.P. Bill Casey making up the other seat. The Liberals had their one second-place standing in the fourth seat.

Turning to the charts, one trend that pops out is the decline in Liberal vote over the four previous elections. In the Transposition of the 2000 election results onto the current boundaries, the Liberals did not win a seat, but they did place second in all four seats, earning some 30% of the vote. Over the next three elections, they lost one second-place finish per election, and overall saw their vote share drop by half.

The Liberal vote was being pushed down by a combination of the rising NDP vote, a slight increase in the Green vote, a one-time increase in the Bloc vote in 2004, followed by an increase in the Conservative vote in 2006, and a huge increase in the Independent/Other vote in 2008. The NDP went from no second place finishes in 2000, to one in 2004, a seat in 2006 and one seat plus one second-place finish in 2008.

The Bloc has held its two seats since 2000 (we only show 2000 and forward here, as that's all that is available for the current boundaries, but obviously they had held them since 1993). The Liberals held the CCMV predecessor seat for one term from 1993-1997, and the NDP held the NWC predecessor from 1988 to 1993. Apart from that, the Conservatives, Canadian Alliance and/or PCs had won the other two until 2006, when the NDP's Dawn Black won in the BC seat, followed by 2008 which saw former PC and Conservative M.P. Bill Casey win re-election as an Independent.

As soon as the polls close in BC, I'll post whatever I have by way of results in chart and table format at the top of the home page of the Pundits' Guide website.

Labels: Nov 9 2009 By-elections, Party Scorecard

I don't know why it is, but any time a news story appears about an election that hasn't occurred yet, the reporter wants to report who will win it, or who is "expected to" win, or "favoured to" win ... and they write it as news.

This has always struck me as really presumptuous when citizens haven't actually had a chance to vote yet (almost antidemocratic, even). I mean if they want to endorse a candidate, fine: write an editorial. If they want to make a prediction, do that in a column. But it drives me crazy when a story says that party XXX is expected to win. Particularly when it's clear the reporter hasn't done much of any research visiting or phoning into the actual riding ... such as this Québec reporter who claims to know the outcome of the Nova Scotia race:

"[E]n Nouvelle-Écosse, dans Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley, les conservateurs semblent bien placés pour reprendre la circonscription détenue par l'indépendant Bill Casey (69 % du vote en 2008)..." -- Guillaume Bourgault-Côté in Le Devoir

... or where they're basing their call on nothing more than previous election results (a longstanding bug-a-boo of mine). This last practice can be particularly unreliable in a by-election, which by definition has no incumbents, and thus can't be compared to the previous result which usually did.

However, I realize I'm not going to win this war. The news organizations are going to keep writing these stories that way, because they want to get ahead of the news, or not miss out on something that "everyone else has".

So instead, I'm just going to document those calls today, and we'll rate the pundits afterwards. If I've missed any pundit predictions or news stories that claim to be reporting as fact the outcome of any of Monday's by-elections, please add them in the comments. Also included are news stories that wrote it straight up without writing predictions as facts.

UPDATE: I've added Chantal Hébert from l'Actualité and Susan Delacourt from the Toronto Star this morning.

FURTHER UPDATE: Craig Oliver made his own prediction for CCMV during the journalists' panel at the end of the show. Thanks to a reader for helping to clear up the confusion.

Journo/Pundit	News Org	Date	NWC	'Chlag	MIKR	CCMV
L. Ian MacDonald	National Post	Nov 6	NDP	BQ	(1.)	Cons
Janyce McGregor	CBC.ca Inside Politics	Nov 6	(2.)
Nick Gamache	CBC.ca Inside Politics	Nov 6			(3.)
Stephen Puddicombe	CBC.ca Inside Politics	Nov 6				(4.)
Doug Ward	Vancouver Sun	Nov 6	(5.)
Joël-Denis Bellavance	La Presse	Nov 7	NDP	BQ	BQ	Cons
Guillaume Bourgault-Côté	Le Devoir	Nov 7	--	BQ	(6.)	Cons
No byline	Radio-Canada.ca	Nov 7			(7.)
No byline	Radio-Canada.ca	Nov 8		(8.)
Canadian Election Watch	blog	Nov 8	NDP	BQ	BQ	Cons
No byline	Canwest News Service	Nov 8	(9.)	BQ	Cons	Cons
No byline	CBC.ca	Nov 8	NDP	BQ	BQ	Cons
Joan Bryden (10.)	CP	Nov 8	NDP	BQ	BQ	Cons
Nelson Wiseman	CTV.ca	Nov 8	(11.)
Ian Munroe	CTV.ca	Nov 8	(12.)	BQ	BQ	Cons
Craig Oliver	Question Period	Nov 8	NDP	BQ	--	Cons NDP
Jean Lapierre (QC only)	Question Period	Nov 8		BQ	BQ
Christy Clark (BC only)	Question Period	Nov 8	NDP
Dan Leger (NS only)	Question Period	Nov 8				(13.)
Althia Raj	Sun Media	Nov 8	(14.)
Philip Authier	Montreal Gazette	Nov 8		(15.)	(16.)
ElectionPrediction.org	blog	Nov 8	NDP	BQ	BQ	Cons
Chantal Hébert	l'Actualité	Nov 9	(17.)	BQ	BQ	(18.)
Susan Delacourt	Toronto Star	Nov 9	(19.)

1. "This is an extremely tight race, too close to call, between the Bloc’s Nancy Gagnon and the Conservatives’ Bernard Généreux. Radio-Canada is calling it 'the Battle of the Lower St. Lawrence'."
2. "I was particularly interested in his belief that the Rivière du Loup riding is too close to call -- I'm not sure that's expected, given that the Bloc won by a double-digit margin in this riding just one year ago....It *should* be safe Conservative turf, but a cruise through the data from the last provincial election suggests the NDP will have a much better showing than they did in Casey's day....Hochelaga should be safe east-end Montreal turf for the Blocquistes, and wouldn't be all that interesting if the BQ candidate hadn't had a bit of a kerfuffle over his nomination, and didn't use to be an advisor to Stephen Harper's Conservative government. But both are true....But the race expected to be the closest -- based on the margin of victory in the last election -- is New Westminster-Coquitlam."
3. "If the race is between the Bloc and the Conservatives, where are the Liberals? According to many here, they're in trouble. Their local organization is largely non-existent and their candidate reportedly entered the race reluctantly. I ended up spending more time than expected in Rivière-du-Loup, a good chunk of it at a garage. A fellow client asked if I was voting for Généreux or that woman from the Bloc. I said I wasn't going to vote on Monday. He said: "Me neither, I'm tired of all those elections'."
   
4. "During this by-election campaign you can't have a conversation without someone mentioning Bill Casey. A local debate this week in Truro was dominated by Casey and his ideals and legacy. I was talking with a couple of dairy farmers about the contest. They both said the choice is simple. Whichever candidate is most like Bill Casey is the person they'll vote for. They didn't care if electing a Conservative gets them closer to those infrastructure cheques with the party logo on them. They didn't care about their candidate making it into cabinet. They just want someone to stick up for them. Someone who will put the region's interests ahead of a political career."
   
5. "New Westminster-Coquitlam is a swing constituency that has produced razor-thin finishes between the NDP and the Conservatives over the past three elections with the NDP winning the last two."
   
6. "Le Bloc québécois perdra-t-il un de ses bastions lors de l'élection partielle de lundi dans Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Rivière-du-Loup (MLKRDL)? Les conservateurs le souhaitent et l'affirment, mais la lutte s'annonce très serrée."
7. "À quatre jours des élections partielles fédérales dans Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Rivière-du-Loup, le Bloc québécois et les conservateurs jouent leur va-tout. Bien que la circonscription soit aux mains des bloquistes depuis 16 ans, les conservateurs et leur candidat, l'ex-maire de La Pocatière Bernard Généreux, croient pouvoir créer la surprise."
8. "Le Bloc québécois et le Nouveau Parti démocratique (NPD) se livrent une dure lutte en prévision de l'élection partielle fédérale de lundi dans Hochelaga."
   
9. "The B.C. riding of New Westminster-Coquitlam has shaped up to be a battleground between the Conservatives' Diana Dilworth and the NDP's Fin Donnelly."
10. "The contests will most likely amount to a confirmation of the status quo, with the Bloc Quebecois hanging on to two ridings in Quebec, New Democrats holding on to another in British Columbia and the Tories reclaiming a Nova Scotia riding that had been a longtime stronghold until Bill Casey, a former Conservative MP, captured it as an independent in 2008. But all four races are sufficiently tight that they could conceivably produce upset victories for the Conservatives and the NDP."
11. "None of the ridings are particularly representative of the country's political landscape, University of Toronto professor Nelson Wiseman told CTV.ca, and voting rates are usually lower outside of general elections. But the results could still shed light on how Canadians feel about how their political parties are performing."
    
12. "The Conservatives won the riding in 2004 but the NDP has held it since then, and the race is expected to be close."
13. He said it would be "down to organization and coattails".
14. "Canadians in four federal ridings head to the polls Monday to cast their ballots in hotly contested byelections."
15. "The Conservatives believe the riding is ripe for change. In the 2008 federal election, the Bloc’s share of the vote slipped from 52 per cent to 46 per cent while the Conservatives crept up to 30 per cent. Add to the mix Généreux, a popular local mayor, and they think they have a chance."
16. "The campaign in Hochelaga has turned into a Bloc-NDP fight to the finish with the NDP turning on the pressure in the belief Hochelaga is ready to flip over to them in much the same way Outremont did."
17. "Le NPD a repris ce siège aux conservateurs l’an dernier et ces derniers voudraient bien le récupérer. Les néo-démocrates ont fait campagne contre l’instauration prochaine d’une taxe de vente harmonisée en Colombie-Britannique. S’ils perdent le comté, ils devront se demander si l’idée de faire payer le prix politique d’une mesure provinciale par le gouvernement d’Ottawa est un pétard mouillé."
18. "Comté bleu où le député conservateur Bill Casey avait été réélu comme indépendant l’automne dernier, après avoir quitté le parti de Stephen Harper pour protester contre la formule de péréquation imposée par le gouvernement. Le NPD, qui vient de s’installer au pouvoir en Nouvelle-Écosse, compte sur l’élan de cette victoire historique pour chauffer les conservateurs aujourd’hui."
19. "The New Democrats and Bloc Québécois have high hopes, while the Conservatives and Liberals are playing down any expectations of seat gains in four by-elections on Monday in Nova Scotia, Quebec and British Columbia....[I]t's possible the Liberals will not place first or even second in any of the by-elections, in what will be sure to be portrayed by opponents as another sign of the shaky state of Ignatieff's leadership."

Note that people were most likely to call Hochelaga, QC for the Bloc, and least likely to call New Westminster – Coquitlam, BC for anyone (although the lone British Columbian, Christy Clark, predicted a likely NDP win). Only Canwest News Service (no byline that I could find anywhere for that story) called Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, QC for the Conservatives. Everyone was ready to call Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, NS for the Conservatives, except the resident Nova Scotians Dan Leger and Steve Puddicombe.

The Globe and Mail used Joan Bryden's story from CP on Sunday, while the Toronto Star has not written about the by-elections at all this weekend that I've noticed, (they have now).

Labels: Media Coverage, Nov 9 2009 By-elections

Shorter John Robson:

"I can't write about the by-elections because no-one else in the mainstream media has written about them. Of course why should we be expected to work that hard when those communities were so thoughtless as to have long hard-to-pronounce names. [Or have so much of their news in french.] Hence these races must be boring."

For the take of someone who's taken the trouble to follow them: L. Ian MacDonald in this morning's National Post.

Labels: Nov 9 2009 By-elections

Here are a few news items from the by-elections that aren't being covered elsewhere, but may be of interest to readers:

• If the Bloc Québécois' Nancy Gagnon is elected in Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, QC next Monday, she will be part of the second married couple to sit in the House of Commons right now, and the third one ever. Gagnon's spouse is Bloc House Leader Pierre Paquette, M.P. for Joliette on the north shore. They would join NDP Leader Jack Layton and his partner Olivia Chow who represent neighbouring Toronto ridings, and follow in the footsteps of Conservative M.P.s Gurmant and Nina Grewal both from Surrey, BC (only Ms. Grewal is still sitting in the Commons). Notwithstanding these precedents, however, the other week Conservative candidate Bernard Généreux questioned how much time, in the face of Gagnon's situation, she might be able to devote to her own constituents.
  
  The two have been sparring over numerous issues, including the post office in La Pocatière, government support for forestry workers, EI reform, the impact of "Buy American" on contracts for Bombardier, and the involvement of former Bloc M.P. Paul Crête in obtaining federal government funding for the area. Généreux has accused Gagnon of "demagoguery"; she's asked him to apologize for denying Crête's role in obtaining some federal funds (she later produced an ad in which he had earlier congratulated Crête for his role, but I wish I could find that clipping again now ;-)); and he's said her accusation about Bombardier was "scandalous". I guess this is what we call a "hotly contested" race.
  
  
• Meantime, with the hotly contested Montréal municipal elections out of the way, the race in Hochelaga has also heated way up, with a pretty frontal assault launched by the NDP Tuesday morning on Bloc Québécois candidate Daniel Paillé's progressive credentials and the extent of his ties to the riding he's running in. The party unveiled a website highlighting aspects of Paillé's past, both in government and the private sector, and tied it to a street poster campaign, featuring a blue cheque with a Conservative logo made out to Paillé, in reference to his work during the last Parliament for former Conservative Minister Michel Fortier on the awarding of opinion research contracts in the federal government. Duceppe and Paillé had scheduled a news conference for Tuesday morning to discuss the Port of Montréal. I haven't seen any coverage of their reaction to the NDP's attacks, as most stories focused instead on Duceppe's refusal to dine with the Royals.
  
  
• Elections Canada has released Advance Voting numbers for the four ridings. I've crunched the numbers below, but early voting interest appears highest in Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, NS and lowest in Hochelaga, QC (probably not surprising, given the much greater interest in municipal politics there in the last few weeks).

Riding	2009 By Electors	2009 By Adv.	2008 GE Electors	2008 GE Adv.
CCMV	67,789	3,397 (5.0% of electorate)	68,831	3,726 (5.4%)
MIKR	77,886	3,092 (4.0%)	78,377	3,931 (5.0%)
'Chlag	78,260	1,829 (2.3%)	79,542	4,184 (5.3%)
NWC	82,226	3,075 (3.7%)	80,755	4,576 (5.7%)

Labels: Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, Hochelaga, Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, New Westminster – Coquitlam, Nov 9 2009 By-elections

I just noticed that Elections Canada has now published the spending limits for registered political parties running candidates in the four by-elections.

The limits are set according to an arithmetic formula, based on the number of electors on the list in each riding, the indexing factor in effect, and the number of candidates being endorsed by a given party across the 4 by-election ridings (see the Elections Canada fact-sheet for a detailed explanation).

We can figure out how much each riding contributes to the total limit, by doing some subtraction using the smaller parties who are only running in 1 or 2 ridings. The candidate preliminary spending limits were already announced earlier in the campaign.

	NWC, BC	'Chlag, QC	MIKR, QC	CCMV, NS
Electors on List	82,226	78,260	77,886	67,789
Regis. Party Limit ($)	$72,004.43	$68,847.53	$68,204.77	$59,362.83
Prelim. Cand. Limit ($)	$89,079.96	$86,734.83	$86,257.35	$86,242.26

This breaks down by party as follows (also shown in the top table on this database page):

	Lib, NDP, Grn, Cons	BQ	CHP	CPC-ML, neoRhino.ca
# of Candidates	4 ea.	2 (both QC)	1 (CCMV)	1 ea. ('Chlag)
Regis. Party Limit ($)	$268,419.56	$137,052.30	$59,362.83	$68,847.53
Prelim. Cand. Limit ($)	$348,314.40	$172,992.18	$86,242.26	$86,734.83

Parties report their by-election spending on Part 3a of their annual returns. Looking at the returns from 2007, for example, we see that, given a registered party spending limit of $171,997:

• the Bloc Québécois and the Green Party spent nothing centrally on the 3 Québec 2007 by-elections, while
  
• the Conservatives spent $158,146.65: largely in Roberval – Lac-Saint-Jean ($75,989.64) and Saint-Hyacinthe – Bagot ($81,789.05), with just $367.96 spent in Outremont
• the Liberals spent 78,832.03, mostly all in Outremont ($75,042.03), while
• the NDP spent $21,003.31, which was evenly split across the 3 ridings.

As this demonstrates, unlike candidates, the parties are under no obligation to distribute their spending across the by-election ridings equally, or to stay under the allotment based on a riding's population in their spending on that riding. In fact, a party might be at an advantage if it were only targetting certain of the by-election seats, and could focus all their central resources on them, as compared with a party that targets and therefore spends equally in each one. In the case of the 2007 Québec by-elections, the Conservatives picked up a seat for all their targetted spending, and nearly picked up another. On the other hand, central spending alone did not help keep Outremont in Liberal hands that time.

In other by-election news, Advanced Voting starts this Friday.

Labels: Election Expenses, Nov 9 2009 By-elections

I've noticed that a few of the candidates have videos out now, so while I work busily away on some things, here are some by-election candidate videos for your viewing pleasure:

Liberal candidate Jim Burrows in CCMV (double-click to play):



NDP candidate Fin Donnelly in NWC:



Green candidate Jason Blanch in CCMV:



Bloc Québécois candidate Daniel Paillé in 'Chlag:



Conservative candidate Bernard Généreux in MIKR:

Labels: Campaign Techniques, Nov 9 2009 By-elections

Still battling a cold here, which demands sleep, and that cuts into precious blogging time. I've made a few database updates tonight, including the victor in the contested Conservative nomination in London North Centre last night (Susan Truppe). Thanks to a reader for bringing this clipping to our attention.

The list of official candidates for the 4 by-election ridings was released yesterday, and it appears that no-one got disqualified, while a new Independent candidate has shown up in Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley CCMV), Kate Graves. I've added in all the finalized candidates to the database now, and updated the graph on the main page. There are 23 candidates running across the 4 by-election ridings, 8 of them women, with both the Liberals and NDP running an all-male ticket. Hochelaga has the highest number of candidates running (8), while New Westminster – Coquitlam (NWC) has just 4 running. Each of the major parties is running a full slate. Five of the candidates won contested nominations in order to run, including 3/4 in NWC, the Liberal in CCMV and the Bloc candidate in Hochelaga, two were appointed (the 2 Liberals in Quebec), while the rest were acclaimed or were nominated as independents.

In other news, here are a few items worth following up on:

• Regular readers will recall that the Canadian Election Study (the academic exit poll that has been conducted after each general election for years) publicly releases its raw data a year after the election was held. I wrote to Professor Elisabeth Gidengil to inquire when the data would be released, and she was kind enough to reply earlier today that the data would be made available on their website shortly (probably on this page, along with many of their publications). They have made earlier datasets available in SPSS format (so, it's not for the casual user), but still and all, it is being made public, which is great.
• On a related note, former M.P. Dennis Gruending in his blog Pulpit and Politics has written the first of a two-part series examining data on voting trends by religious affiliation, looking at a recent study by the Evangelical Fellowship of Canada. In a subsequent post he plans to look at the data collected by the Canadian Election Study on that subject as well, so stay tuned.
• For those who can't get enough of mapping, there have been some very detailed coloured poll-by-poll maps of the 4 by-election ridings posted on Babble (see comment #77) by someone who looks like she or he does this professionally. Here are the links:
  • Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, NS - (this one is for the 2006 results, since Bill Casey won every poll but one of the Indian Reserves in 2008, which he lost to the NDP)
    
  • Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, QC
    
  • Hochelaga, QC
    
  • New Westminster – Coquitlam, BC
    
  There are also other maps linked to by that Babble user in other threads as well, including Outremont from 2006 and 2008.

Thanks to everyone for their patience, and for staying in touch. I hope to be back in fighting form for a productive weekend's work.

Labels: Data Analysis, Nov 9 2009 By-elections

During the last set of by-elections (the ones that were pre-empted by the call of the general election), we started a feature called "Facebook Watch". Since then, Twitter has also become an important vehicle of communication for campaigns, and the last election proved the power of YouTube beyond any doubt.

So, with the official list of candidates set to be released at 2:00 PM Wednesday, here's a first round-up of the various candidates' activities on some of the major social media/Web 2.0 sites: Facebook (full-service social media site), Twitter (140-character status updates), YouTube (video sharing) and Flickr (photo-sharing), along with the counts of their Friends/Supporters (for Facebook) or Followers (for Twitter) as of about 12:30 AM on Wednesday morning Oct. 21.

Party	NWC	'Chlag	MIKR	CCMV
Lib	(101) (104)		(4)	(122)
NDP	(407) (139)	(226) (16)		(149) (17)
Grn	(25) (43)			(133) (11)
BQ		(194)	(124)
Cons	(253)		(66)	(346)
Oth				(39) (20)

The first thing to note is that many of the Twitter follower counts went up by 1 tonight, as I started following any of the candidates I had not found before (that's me @punditsguide).

Next thing to say is that New Westminster – Coquitlam, BC (NWC) is the leader in social media campaigning, with 10 candidate accounts, although that's also likely related to the fact that the seat became vacant first, and has had a full slate of candidates for most of the summer. The next most active riding is Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, NS (CCMV), with 8 candidate accounts, while the Québec ridings follow with 3 each.

The most active party in the social media domain at the moment is the NDP, with 7 candidate accounts across the 4 ridings, followed by the Liberals with 5 candidate accounts (although Liberal Ken Beck Lee in NWC is the only candidate to have a profile on the professional social-networking site LinkedIn, which I decided not to include this go-around, mainly due to lack of time on my part), and the Greens with another 5. The Conservatives have 3 candidate accounts activated, while the Bloc and others (Christian Heritage Party leader Jim Hnatiuk, who is running in CCMV) have 2 each.

In terms of Facebook friends / supporters (it's a different term, depending on the type of Facebook page, but I'm just using the generic term 'friend', since it's stuck over the past few years), the NDP candidates are ahead of the pack in NWC and Hochelaga, while the Conservative candidates are ahead in MIKR and CCMV (where in particular their candidate was nominated quite some time ago).

And turning to Twitter followers, again the NDP candidates are ahead in NWC and Hochelaga, while the Christian Heritage leader is ahead in CCMV.

The NDP candidate in Hochelaga, Jean-Claude Rocheleau is tweeting quite a bit, and doing so exclusively in french. He does not appear to have many followers. But sometime around 10 days ago, a Twitter account entitled "JeanClaudeNDP" invited a lot of people to follow him/her/it, including yours truly and quite a few others. It invited its followers to complete a short survey, saying that the NDP needed their help. Needless to say, the link to this "survey" likely contained a virus, and the account has been tweeting spam ever since. Most of its followers have since vanished, but I'm sure I wasn't the only one to think I had a story that the NDP by-election candidate had been infected by a virus. Mr. Rocheleau's true Twitter account is "jcrocheleau" (linked to above).

Incidentally, I'm indebted to the legwork already undertaken by the Twitter aggregator sites, notably PoliTwitter.ca which maintains detailed profiles of Tweeting candidates and other politicos. TweetCommons.com focuses on the conversations between tweeting politicians (or candidates) and citizens. And of course David Akin maintains the Political Twits directory of Hill denizens who tweet for a living.

We'll check back again next week to see how much progress has been made in cyberspace by the candidates, so if you have information about a tweeting, facebooking, youtubing, flickring candidate, please do get in touch.

Meanwhile we'll be waiting for a news release from Elections Canada, expected some time Wednesday afternoon, announcing the final list of nominated candidates for the 4 by-election ridings. Election day is now less than 3 weeks away.

Labels: Facebook Watch, Nov 9 2009 By-elections

Nominations close Monday at 2:00 p.m. local-time for the 4 by-election ridings. Candidates must present completed nomination papers (opens a PDF file), an endorsement letter signed by their party leader if running for a registered political party, an official agent and a witness, the name of an auditor who has agreed to audit their books, and a cheque for the $1,000 deposit, which is returned once their financial reports are filed after the election.

The nomination papers are interesting to take a look at, if you've never seen them before, and contain all the rules about running, who can run, the kinds of oaths they have to take, the way they're allowed to call themselves on the ballot, and all kinds of other details about the process of how the nomination papers get reviewed and approved.

The one detail they don't cover is the number of signatures required on the papers to be successfully nominated, which is because it varies. In most ridings, candidates must present the signatures of 100 electors from that riding (i.e., eligible to vote, and normally resident within the riding boundaries). However in the large and remote ridings listed in Schedule 3 of the Elections Act, just 50 signatures are required.

Once the nomination papers are filed, the Deputy District Returning Officer (DRO) for that riding reviews them to ensure everything is in order and that all the signatures are from eligible voters in that riding. If not, the candidate's nomination will be rejected, and this has certainly happened in recent history: for example the 2000 Progressive Conservative candidate in Regina – Lumsden – Lake Centre, SK did not meet this threshold and was not confirmed as a candidate. (The story goes that there were dead people names on the papers, but the DRO had attended one of the individuals' funeral, and began to investigate further.) These things can be consequential; for example in this case, the incumbent was defeated by a narrow margin with only 3 candidates on the ballot.

[UPDATE: a reader who would know, wrote to correct my terminology above. DROs are the Deputy Returning Officers who sit at the polling stations next to the Poll Clerks, while District Returning Officers are called ROs. Colloquially we always called returning officers DROs when I worked on campaigns Anyways, that's who I meant to say. In fact, as the reader further points out, that person may not be the individual who actually does the checking either, but is in any event the person responsible for ensuring it happens.]

DROs Returning Officers have 48 hours to verify and confirm the details in the nomination papers, and then Elections Canada releases the names of the candidates who will appear on the ballot, and sets the parties' spending limits for the by-election campaign, which depend on how many candidates each is running.

Note that candidates have until 5:00 p.m. Monday to withdraw their name from the ballot. Candidates resigning after that point will still appear on the ballot (under the name of the party endorsing them on their nomination papers), as we all remember from several examples in the last campaign.

You will notice that Elections Canada has candidates already listed for each riding on their by-election website right now. These are the lists of "registered" candidates; basically candidates who have already contacted the DRO to indicate their intentions to run, whether they have nomination papers completed or not.

On this basis, we can say that the neoRhino.ca candidate Gabrielle Anctil is now a registered candidate according to the list for Hochelaga, and perennial candidate John Turmel has registered to run as an independent candidate in that riding as well.

--------------

I've also been making some database updates for general election nominations, but blogging is light at present, to permit me the time to delve into a new topic for a future Pundits' Guide project.

Thanks to everyone who has been staying in touch to keep us apprised of candidate developments.

Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Nov 9 2009 By-elections

I've now added the fourth Google Map in the set of by-election ridings, shown in context of their neighbouring ridings, the map for Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, QC.

As you can see from this screenshot (click on the image to take you to the actual live Google Map, or reach it from the top of the main Pundits' Guide page while we're still in by-election mode), the riding of MIKR straddles an area of Bloc seats to the north-east and an area of mainly Conservative seats to its south-west. And indeed many commentators believe the contest here could swing between those two parties.



You can click on any riding in the Google Map itself to find out which one it is, or you can browse the neighbouring ridings by opening up one of the nodes in the left-hand column and clicking on its square (not shown here, but you'll see what I mean when you get there).

Notice that the Conservative ridings are coloured in the darker shade of blue, while the Bloc ones are in a lighter shade. The independent-held riding of Portneuf – Jacques-Cartier, QC is grey with a dark grey border, while MIKR (since it's vacant) is grey but with a white border.

Being a Google Map, of course you can zoom in and out, switch to satellite view and back again, or just pan across using your mouse.

Labels: Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, Nov 9 2009 By-elections

The Green Party has acclaimed its candidate for MIKR, rounding out its own slate and in fact rounding out the slate of major party candidates for the 4 ridings:

• Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, QC - Farmer and nature-lover Charles Marois was acclaimed by the Green riding association this past Sunday, a reader writes to say.
• Hochelaga, QC - The Green candidate Christine Lebel was in fact acclaimed by their riding association back on September 23, the reader also advises. Looks like she may be joined by a neoRhino candidate, Gabrielle Anctil, who although not yet nominated has a few thoughts on the current state of the sign war in the riding.

Meanwhile, the Liberal Party has put up its by-election website, including websites for the two Québec candidates, which I've now added to the database. They promote the site from the main page in rotation with other featured sections, and link to the candidates' websites from the by-election site. as seen here:





In fact, it looks like they took the photograph from Jim Burrows' website, and dropped the other candidates' photos into it:

Labels: Greens, Nov 9 2009 By-elections, Other Party Candidates, Party Web Watch

There's been a fair bit of regional news coverage about the by-elections in the past week, and for folks who might not have time to scour the web for it, here's a rundown on what's been happening.

Candidate Spending Limits

First of all, Elections Canada announced the candidate spending limits for each of the 4 ridings yesterday. I've added them into the database now, but 3 of the ridings have limits on the order of $86K, while NWC with its higher population is set around $89K. Once nominations officially close, Elections Canada will announce the parties' overall spending limits for the 4 ridings, based on the number of ridings in which they have duly nominated candidates.

Party Web Watch

Next up, 2 of the 5 political parties have already devoted significant real estate on their websites to the by-elections: Friday morning, the Bloc Québécois added Daniel Paillé in rotation with Nancy Gagnon in the top right-hand corner of their home page ...





... while the NDP returned to its "Unite 4 Change" theme of the last parliamentary session ("Le Pouvoir de changer" in french) to set up a pair of by-election specific websites that went live late this Friday afternoon in both english and french, and which are being promoted from their home page as well.





As I said, to date there is no mention or link to the by-election campaigns from the home pages of the Conservative, Liberal or Green Party websites, but we'll check back every so often and report when that aspect of their campaigns gets under way. Meantime, I've updated the candidates' database entries with all their website addresses, albeit that the Green Party has yet to announce a candidate for MIKR, and no websites have been located as yet for the 2 Québec Liberal candidates (but if you have the addresses, please do get in touch so I can update the site).

Riding Newswatch

While most folks already follow the main national news outlets (and one of the best ways to do so is via National Newswatch, if you're not familiar with the site), everyone knows that all politics is local politics. So I thought I'd run down what the local coverage is saying about the by-election campaigns in each riding, starting with Nova Scotia. The others will follow in later blogposts.

Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, NS - The main news outlets are the Amherst Daily News in the north, and the Truro Daily News in the south. Anecdotally, some readers are complaining that the latter has too Tory a focus in its coverage, but as I'm not familiar with the news sources, I guess we'll just have to see over the course of the campaign how the different parties fare in terms of quantity and quality of coverage from the different outlets.

• Byelection could prove interesting - [Amherst Daily News - Editorial - Oct 9, 2009] - Like it or not, voters in the federal riding of Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley are going to the polls in 32 days and the results could prove ...
• Hot seat: Liberal candidate looking to capitalize on anti-Harper sentiment in byelection - [Amherst Daily News - Dave Mathieson - Oct 8, 2009] - How much resentment is still coarsing through the veins of the Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley electorate over the Bill Casey affair could determine ...
• Retired military officer eager to serve as Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley MP - [Amherst Daily News - <no byline> - Oct 8, 2009] - Christian Heritage Party Leader Jim Hnatiuk became the first candidate to register for the byelection call in Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley ...
• Byelection candidates hit the trail - [Truro Daily News - Jason Malloy - Oct 7, 2009] - Candidates are criss-crossing Cumberland Colchester Musquodoboit Valley looking for votes. From the New Brunswick border to the Pictou County line and ...
• Armstrong hopeful of Conservative support in riding - [Amherst Daily News - Raissa Tetanish - Oct 5, 2009] - Winning over Bill Casey’s former supporters will be key to capturing Cumberland Colchester Musquodoboit Valley in the Nov. 9 byelection, says Conservative ...
• Tories punishing riding for support of Casey, Liberal candidate says - [Amherst Daily News - <no byline> - Oct 5, 2009] - Taxpayers’ money should be spent fairly across the country regardless of who represents voters in the House of Commons, says the local Liberal candidate ...
• Blanch to present Green option - [Amherst Daily News - Darrell Cole - Oct 5, 2009] - Jason Blanch is hoping to give the voters of northern Nova Scotia another option when they go to the polls sometime later this year to elect a replacement ...
• Vote will delay news on federal funds for civic centre - [Truro Daily News - Jason Malloy - Oct 4, 2009] - Colchester County residents will have to wait at least another five weeks before hearing if the federal government will provide funds for the region’s ...
• Federal byelection set for Nov. 9 - [Truro Daily News - Jason Malloy - Oct 4, 2009] - Central and Northern Nova Scotia will have its new member of Parliament in five weeks time. Prime Minister Stephen Harper announced four byelections, ...
• Calling all voters - [Amherst Daily News - Darrell Cole - Oct 4, 2009] - Voters in Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley are going to the polls in early November to fill a vacancy created earlier this year by the resignation ...
• Federal byelection called for Nov. 9 - [Truro Daily News - <no byline> - Oct 4, 2009] - Colchester County residents will have a new federal politician by mid November. Four byelections, including Cumberland Colchester Musquodoboit Valley, ...
• By-Elections Called - [CKDH Amherst - <no byline> - Oct 4, 2009] - As expected, Prime Minister Stephen Harper has called four by-elections. One of those ridings is the Cumberland Colchester Musquidobit Valley, the seat ...
• Green Party names candidate for vacant seat - [Truro Daily News - Darrell Cole - Oct 2, 2009] - Jason Blanch is hoping to give the voters of northern Nova Scotia another option when they go to the polls sometime later this year to elect a replacement ...
• Austin acclaimed as NDP candidate for local riding - [Truro Daily News - <no byline> - Oct 2, 2009] - ...
• Old Barns man to run for NDP in byelection - [Truro Daily News - <no byline> - Sep 27, 2009] - There are two qualities Mark Austin feels a member of parliament must possess. He feels he has both. The 50-year-old resident of Old Barns will run ...
• Austin to run for NDP in federal byelection - [Truro Daily News - <no byline> - Sep 27, 2009] - Mark Austin, a 50-year-old resident of Old Barns will run for the NDP party in the Cumberland Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley byelection, which has yet ...
• Liberal candidate wants federal byelection already - [Amherst Daily News - Jason Malloy - Sep 22, 2009] - The time has come for the Harper government to call a byelection for Central and Northern Nova Scotia, says the local Liberal candidate. Jim Burrows ...
• Austin to represent NDP in federal vote - [Amherst Daily News - Darrell Cole - Sep 20, 2009] - Mark Austin will represent New Democrats in the upcoming federal byelection for Cumberland-Colchester-Mus-quodoboit Valley. The Old Barns resident has ...
• Liberal wants federal government to call byelection - [Truro Daily News - <no byline> - Sep 18, 2009] -
• Burrows will carry riding’s Liberal colours into next federal election - [Truro Daily News - Monique Chiasson - Sep 13, 2009] - Green Oaks dairy farmer Jim Burrows is the Cumberland Colchester Musquodoboit Valley Liberal candidate for the next federal election. Burrows, 51, operator ...
• Liberals vote today for local candidate in next federal election - [Truro Daily News - Brad Works - Sep 13, 2009] - Local Liberals will choose between a campaign of experience and that of determination today when they select the party’s next candidate for the next federal ...
• Burrows easily wins Cumberland Colchester Musquodoboit Valley Liberal bid for the next federal election - [Truro Daily News - <no byline> - Sep 13, 2009] - Green Oaks dairy farmer Jim Burrows will represent Cumberland Colchester Musquodoboit Valley Liberals in the next federal election. Burrows received ...
• Federal Grit candidate wonders where civic centre funding is - [Truro Daily News - Jason Malloy - Sep 10, 2009] - A local Liberal is concerned funding for Colchester County’s regional civic centre is being delayed for political reasons. Jim Burrows said it is important ...
• Liberals set to choose next candidate - [Amherst Daily News - Brad Works - Sep 10, 2009] - Local Liberals will choose between a campaign of experience and that of determination when Saturday they select the party’s next candidate for federal ...
• Liberals holding nomination meeting for federal riding - [Truro Daily News - <no byline> - Sep 8, 2009] - A New Brunswick Member of Parliament will be the guest speaker at Saturday’s Liberal nomination meeting for Cumberland Colchester Musquodoboit Valley. ...
• Federal Grits to select local candidate Sept. 12 - [Truro Daily News - <no byline> - Aug 17, 2009] - The federal candidate nomination meeting for the Cumberland Colchester Musquodoboit Valley Liberal Association will be held on Saturday, Sept. 12. Two ...
• Liberal nomination meeting next month - [Truro Daily News - <no byline> - Aug 14, 2009] - Cumberland Colchester Musquodoboit Valley Liberals will decide who will represent them in the next federal election. Official candidates are Green Oak’s ...
• Christian Heritage Party leader looking to replace Casey - [Amherst Daily News - <no byline> - Aug 12, 2009] - The leader of the Christian Heritage Party will be a candidate when voters in Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley go to the polls this fall to elect ...
• Parsons seeking Liberalnomination for next federal election - [Truro Daily News - Monique Chiasson - Jul 23, 2009] - Tracy Parsons is taking another shot at federal politics. The 45-year-old Bible Hill resident officially announced her intention to seek the Liberal ...
• Parsons preparing for another run at federal politics - [Amherst Daily News - Darrell Cole - Jul 22, 2009] - Bill Casey is not running in the next election, but Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley Liberal candidate Tracy Parsons feels he will still be a ...
• Bible Hill's Tracy Parsons seeking federal Liberal nomination - [Truro Daily News - <no byline> - Jul 22, 2009] - Tracy Parsons is taking another shot at federal politics. The 45-year-old Bible Hill resident officially announced her intention to seek the Liberal ...
• Burrows seeking federal Liberal nomination - [Amherst Daily News - Darrell Cole - Jul 19, 2009] - With an election coming in the fall, Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley Liberals are preparing for what they feel will be their best opportunity ...
• Burrows seeking Liberal nomination - [Truro Daily News - <no byline> - Jul 18, 2009] - A Beaver Brook farmer wants to represent the Liberal party of Cumberland Colchester Musquodoboit Valley in the next federal election. Jim Burrows, 51, ...
• Federal Tory candidate says don’t worry about civic centre funds - [Truro Daily News - <no byline> - Jul 10, 2009] - Colchester County residents should not be concerned about Halifax’s problem getting federal funds for a rink project, says the local Conservative candidate ...
• Armstrong gets federal Tory nod - [Truro Daily News - <no byline> - Apr 30, 2009] - Scott Armstrong will carry the Conservative banner in Cumberland Colchester Musquodoboit Valley the next time residents go to the polls for a federal ...
• The right thing to do - [Truro Daily News - Jason Malloy - Apr 29, 2009] - Cumberland Colchester Musquodoboit Valley is losing the member of Parliament they elected only six months ago. Bill Casey’s long run as the federal representative ...
• Armstrong after Tory nod - [Amherst Daily News - Jason Malloy - Apr 21, 2009] - Scott Armstrong was in elementary school when he started helping Tories get elected. Now he is hoping the party will return the favour. The Truro resident ...
• Truro educator seeking Tory nomination for next federal election - [Truro Daily News - Jason Malloy - Apr 20, 2009] - The man who wants to turn central and northern Nova Scotia Tory once again will announce today he is seeking the party’s nomination for the next federal ...

Labels: Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, Election Expenses, Nov 9 2009 By-elections, Party Web Watch, Riding News Watch

[UPDATE: See below for story from La Presse Canadienne on Hochelaga Bloc nomination.]

Switching back from by-election coverage to the non-byelection nomination news, we have a last spurt of nominations to cover, after which it appears that things are slowing down for the fall. Many fewer meetings are scheduled for the coming weeks, and I'm hearing unconfirmed reports that other meetings and announcements are being delayed. Blogger tcnorris is arguing tonight that the announcement of the royal visit and the calling of the byelections signals that the Prime Minister is unlikely to try and engineer his own defeat this fall, and I think that's probably about right.

Indeed, if the election window drags out longer than that, we may start to see the opposition phenomenon .... candidates dropping out because the timing turns bad for them, and MPs with long service deciding to sit out the next campaign after all.

Personally, I'm looking forward to the break so we can return to some other analyses around here that got crowded out by the onslaught of nomination news. So, let's get down to it now, starting with candidates who have been selected recently:

• Leeds – Grenville, ON - The NDP has renominated its 2008 candidate in this riding, Brockville and District Labour Council president Steve Armstrong this past week. Meantime, the Green Party now has a three-way nomination race on the go, with a meeting set for Thursday, October 15 as we've already reported here. Armstrong and the winner of the Green contest will be joining recently nominated Liberal candidate Marjory Loveys, and three-term Conservative M.P. Gord Brown on the campaign trail.
  
• Oak Ridges – Markham, ON - NDP - Three-time NDP candidate in neighbouring Markham – Unionville, Janice Hagen, was nominated last Friday, October 2 in her new riding. She will now face first-time Conservative M.P. Paul Calandra, and former Liberal M.P. Lui Temelkovski.
  
• Miramichi, NB - As we quickly reported last weekend, Keith Vickers, and former aide to the former Liberal M.P. for this riding, Charlie Hubbard, won the 3-way contested nomination in this riding last Saturday, October 3. According to the Miramichi Leader, which ran down the details of the ballotting, Vickers won on the second ballot, with some 650 members voting in a room of 800, telling the crowd afterwards that the seat is "ours and we're going to take it back". If they do, it will be from first-time Conservative M.P. Tilly O'Neill-Gordon.
  
• Essex, ON - The NDP renominated three-time candidate Taras Natyshak this past Saturday, reported the Amherstburg Echo. Natyshak be will facing two-time Conservative M.P. Jeff Watson for the third straight contest, with a new Liberal face, Kingsville Mayor Nelson Santos, joining the race alongside first-time Green Party candidate Cora Carriveau. The riding has been held by all 3 major parties since 1984. The NDP's Steven Langdon won the former riding of Essex-Windsor in 1984, on the retirement of long-time (and colourful) former Liberal M.P. Eugene Whelan. Langdon held the seat for two terms, losing alongside many NDP incumbents in 1993 to first-time Liberal M.P.s, in this case Whelan's daughter Susan. She then held the seat for 3 terms, but lost to Watson in 2004, and after trying twice more to regain it, ruled herself out of the Liberal nomination this time. The riding has been a 3-way race in two of the last three elections, but historically has seen everything from crushing Liberal victories under Whelan Sr., to a third-place finish for his successor. And unlike many ridings in which the NDP did much worse in the elections of 1993 and 2000, that party never dropped below 14%, and have scored as high as 44%. Conservatives posted a record low of 14% in the Free Trade election of 1988, but scored as high as 40% 20 years later. The riding has a combination of agriculture and folks dependent on the auto sector, and surrounds the city of Windsor. I think it's going to make for an interesting window into how Ontario goes in the next election.
  
• Haldimand – Norfolk, ON - Also on Saturday, the NDP renominated 2008 candidate Ian Nichols by acclamation in this rural southwestern Ontario riding, currently held by three-term Conservative M.P. Diane Finley, and also being contested by former Liberal M.P. Bob Speller and first-time Green candidate Anne Faulkner. Local NDP members are noting that this marks the first time they've had the same candidate run more than once for them in this riding. Meanwhile, Speller recently picked up the endorsement of a former prime minister, as Paul Martin recently visited Brantford in support of his campaign.
  
• Davenport, ON - Calling it "just like a gig, but with a tie", musician and member of the band "The Skydiggers" Andrew Cash accepted the NDP nomination in the Toronto riding of Davenport on Monday, October 5 before a room of several hundred who were treated to live music alongside the usual speeches, including leader Jack Layton, M.P. Charlie Angus, and most of the band Blue Rodeo, according to one tweeter in attendance. Cash will be facing three-term Liberal M.P. Mario Silva, who has won the riding with 46%-52% of the vote each time. The NDP has been able to post a 30-32% vote share since the forced retirement of long-time Liberal M.P. Charles Caccia in 2004, before which they earned 14-18%. Conservative candidates typically score around 10-12% in the riding, and a strong Green candidate in 2008, bike courier activist Wayne Scott, came in just behind them. Traditionally considered the home of the Portuguese community, the MediaStyle.ca blog reports that Davenport has been changing demographically in recent years to include "a growing core 'creative class'", and indeed the riding ranked 14th in the country in the 2006 census for employment in art, culture, recreation and sport, even if that does represent just 7.15% of its population.
  
• Burlington, ON - As well on Monday night, child protection worker and NDPer David Laird was renominated his party's candidate for the 4th time in this riding just outside Hamilton. He will join two-term Conservative M.P. Mike Wallace and Liberal candidate Bruce Bowser, who ran in Wellington – Halton Hills in 2008. Here's a riding where the NDP and Green vote did not change much between 2004 and 2008, but the seat changed hands strictly on the exchange of Liberal and Conservative votes. It was close in 2004 when Wallace nearly overtook former Liberal M.P. Paddy Torsney, and again in 2006 when he finally did, but by 2008 Wallace was able retain his raw vote, while the Liberal vote apparently stayed home as turnout fell.
  
• Barrie, ON - Another return NDP candidate, Myrna Clark, was renominated by acclamation in this riding northwest of Toronto on Wednesday, October 7, according to the Barrie Examiner. Clark will rejoin three-time Conservative M.P. Patrick Brown, and three-time Green Party candidate Erich Jacoby-Hawkins, and a Liberal to be named later. Again, the NDP vote has stayed within a range of 10-12% here since 2004, with the Greens growing somewhat, but unlike Burlington, the Liberal vote here plummetted by around 10,000 votes between 2006 and 2008, with the Conservatives picking up about 4,000 of them, the Greens another 2,000 and the rest staying home as turnout fell. Thanks to a reader for supplying the clipping.
  
• Simcoe – Grey, ON - Thanks to a reader for sending along this clipping from the Wasaga Sun, reporting the nomination by acclamation of Green Party candidate Stuart Starbuck, also on Wednesday. Realtor Phil Baldwin had earlier been planning to contest the nomination, but withdrew citing work conditions. Starbuck, a former municipal councillor, will now join three-time Conservative M.P. Helena Guergis, returning Liberal candidate Andrea Matrosovs, and two-time NDP candidate Katy Austin, who was also recently acclaimed on September 28.
  
• Saskatoon – Wanuskewin, SK - Another reader wrote in to say that the expected contested NDP nomination in this riding between Barb Henderson and John Parry, also slated for Wednesday night, in fact saw Parry acclaimed with Henderson stepping down to take care of some family concerns. An accountant by training and christian by faith, Parry represented the former riding of Kenora-Rainy River from 1984-1988, subsequently ran for the party several times in Manitoba between 2000 and 2002 and has since relocated to Saskatchewan for work, unsuccessfully running for the nomination in this riding last time around, after having been nominated here for the 2005 election scare (which Belinda Stronach and Chuck Strahl Cadman [D'oh: sorry about that, Mr. Strahl] spared the country) but then stepping down for work reasons. I'm betting he is also the only University of Western Ontario MBA to have joined the Facebook group "Let George Gallaway speak". Parry will be running against long-time Conservative M.P. Maurice Vellacott, with Liberal and Green candidates yet to be chosen.
• Hochelaga, QC - There's a new blog covering by-election news (welcome, and thanks for the link yesterday), and it's reporting tonight that Gilles Duceppe's chosen candidate, former PQ Industry Minister, Daniel Paillé, did indeed win the Bloc Québécois nomination in this by-election riding Thursday, October 8. He'll be joining NDP candidate Jean-Claude Rocheleau, whose campaign office will be opened by leader Jack Layton tomorrow night, Conservative candidate Stéphanie Cloutier, whose campaign kick-off the other day was aided by Conservative Senator Claude Carignan, and recently-named Liberal candidate Robert David, who made quite a memorable entry into the campaign, according to Le Devoir (via Deux Maudits Anglais at Macleans.ca). Here's a question readers could perhaps help us out with: is this Mr. Paillé in any way related to first-term Louis-Hébert Bloc M.P. Pascal-Pierre Paillé? If you know, please drop us a line. UPDATE: La Presse Canadienne writes that Paillé "easily" won the meeting, and has Duceppe's office denying Jean Baribeau's claims that they phoned and asked him to withdraw. FURTHER UPDATE: Daniel Paillé is Pascal-Pierre Paillé's uncle, a reader writes to let us know. Cool. Thanks.
  

If it's starting to sound like a lot of NDP nomination news lately, and less from the other parties, it seems to be because the party made a big push to get key nominations completed once their convention was concluded. One of the analyses I'll be preparing (hopefully over the weekend), now that I've just about got the nominations database up-to-date, is the number of nominations by week, by party. I think that chart will show more clearly the different time-frames in which different parties have been active on that score, over what many believed would be a pre-election period.

Anyway there is other nomination news from across the country, but as it's well past my bedtime here, it will have to wait until tomorrow night. As you may have noticed, it's not just the nomination news that's starting to slow down these days ;-). Bring on the long weekend, I say.

Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Bloc Québécois, Greens, Hochelaga, Liberals, NDP, Nov 9 2009 By-elections

[Welcome National Newswatch readers!]

A candidate for the Bloc Québécois nomination is accusing leader Gilles Duceppe's office of trying to pressure him to drop out of the race, in advance of tomorrow night's contested nomination meeting to pick the party's candidate for next month's by-election in this east-end Montréal riding, reports Kathleen Levesque of Le Devoir this afternoon. The report has sparked the NDP's candidate to ask why the Bloc would "borrow the strategies of the Liberal Party" and whether this represents the "Coderrisation du Bloc québécois".

25-year Hochelaga resident and "confirmed sovereignist and social democrat", Jean Baribeau, has been running for the Bloc nomination since June. He told Le Devoir that he received a telephone call from a staff member in Duceppe's office Tuesday morning asking him to step aside, saying they wanted the Thursday meeting to be a big media event introducing Duceppe's endorsed candidate and recently-appointed economic advisor, former PQ Industry Minister Daniel Paillé.

Citing Duceppe's commitment of last month to hold an open nomination, Baribeau is refusing to stand down, and now refusing to return the calls of Duceppe himself, complaining that the Bloc has already been introducing Paillé as their candidate, and that they've sent in an experienced Bloc organizer to run his nomination campaign. Another nomination candidate, Benoît Dumuy, who was an aide to the former Bloc M.P. in the riding, Réal Ménard, and who had also been selling memberships since June, was already persuaded by Duceppe in early September to withdraw from the race, and a fourth reported candidate Thérèse Ste-Marie also appears to be out of the race now. SMALL UPDATE: Indeed, she has withdrawn and endorsed M. Paillé, according to Les Nouvelles Hochelaga Maisonneuve, which unfortunately however got the nomination date wrong at the end of its story.

Meanwhile the NDP's Jean-Claude Rocheleau, who was renominated in August, issued a news release this afternoon "extending a hand to Bloquistes who are upset" about the "less than democratic practices" of their party, and also chiding the Liberals for "le parachutage dans Hochelaga d’un économiste de Harvard".

The seat became vacant on the resignation of Ménard this past September 16, 2009 in order to run as borough mayor in Hochelaga during the Québec municipal elections that are now underway. The Prime Minister called the by-election this past Sunday for Monday, November 9. The Bloc's candidate will be the last one selected by the major parties in this riding.

We earlier reported on another case of a Bloc nomination candidate, Christian Gionet, who felt the party maneuvred him out of its nomination race in Haute-Gaspésie – La Mitis – Matane – Matapédia, QC, in favour of the leader's preferred candidate Jean-François Fortin last June.

While most media commentators have assumed the Bloc to be the likely winners in Hochelaga, it will be interesting to see whether this nomination race is little more than a distraction, such as the challenge Green Party leader Elizabeth May fought off last month, or whether (as the NDP appears to hope) it represents the opening of schism in the Bloc Québécois riding association.

One way to follow the race there that I've discovered is the Politics news page of Les Nouvelles Hochelaga Maissonneuve.

Labels: Bloc Québécois, Hochelaga, NDP, Nov 9 2009 By-elections

After a bit of digging, and with a little help from our friends, I've been able to collect a bit more news about who'll be running in the by-election ridings in Québec.

• Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, QC - Liberals announced today that, as expected, retiring Cap-Saint-Ignace mayor Marcel Catellier will be their candidate for the by-election. Mr. Catellier was appointed today, and will be introduced to the media by former candidate Jean Bouchard on Thursday morning, reports InfoDimanche.com. The NDP was to introduce its acclaimed candidate, literacy worker François Lapointe, tonight, with Leader Jack Layton and deputy leader Thomas Mulcair on hand, but I haven't seen any coverage as yet. The Greens are expecting to announce their candidate soon, I'm told. Meanwhile Conservative candidate Bernard Généreux launched his campaign earlier today, reports Radio-Canada.
  
• Hochelaga, QC - The Liberals announced Harvard grad and university prof Robert David as their candidate for Hochelaga about an hour ago. The economist, who is also active in international development work, was appointed this evening by Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff. Meanwhile, Conservative candidate Stéphanie Cloutier now has a website up and running. I haven't been able to ascertain the date or status of her nomination (acclaimed, appointed, won a contested nomination, etc.), so if anyone knows please get in touch. The Bloc Québécois has scheduled its contested nomination meeting for Thursday, October 8, according to the Bloc website's events calendar. Math teacher Jean Baribeau, who calls himself a "confirmed sovereigntist and social democrat", will challenge Gilles Duceppe's hand-picked candidate and newly appointed economic advisor, a former PQ Industry Minister and École des Hautes Études Commercials prof, Daniel Paillé. The Greens have named plumber/fitter Christine Lebel as their candidate, but again I'm still waiting to hear the date on which she was selected, and the nomination type. NDP candidate Jean-Claude Rocheleau's campaign claimed they were ready to go and on the streets within hours of the by-election being called, according to a news release issued by his campaign earlier today.

If you have by-election news to share, in either language, why not drop us a note to pass it along.

Labels: Hochelaga, Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, Nov 9 2009 By-elections

UPDATED: See below for preliminary information on the apparent Conservative candidate in Hochelaga, QC.

FURTHER UPDATE: See below for preliminary information on the NDP candidate who will be introduced on Tuesday for MIKR.

First, as a housekeeping matter, for the duration of the by-elections, I'm going to abbreviate the long riding names as follows:

• New Westminster – Coquitlam, BC will be known as "NWC". The riding also includes a chunk of the town of Port Moody, BC and there is a private member's bill on the books to officially change the name, but it hasn't advanced past first reading in the Commons as yet. Still in one spot in the Google Map I did use the abbreviation "NWCPM", in case you're wondering what that meant.
• Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, NS will be known as "CCMV".
• Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, QC will be known as "MIKR".
• I think we're good with Hochelaga, QC just being "Hochelaga", but if I need a short form to use in a table, it will be "Hoch". UPDATE: a reader writes to advise that the well-known street-name for the community is "Chlag". Good enough for me...
  

Now, further to this morning's by-election call in the 4 vacant seats, here is the latest on nominations from the various political parties:

• Liberals - They have 2 candidates nominated, one each in NWC and CCMV, both of whom won contested nominations. Marlene Jennings told a CTV Question Period panel that the Liberals have candidates in both the Québec ridings, but didn't name them, and wasn't sure about their candidates in the other 2 ridings. Certainly I haven't located any information about who the Québec candidates might be, although at various times the names of 2008 candidate Jean Bouchard and Marcel Catellier, the retiring mayor of Cap-Saint-Ignace, have both been mentioned as considering running in MIKR. But I've heard nothing about Hochelaga, and was thinking we might hear some news out of the Sunday Liberal meeting in Québec city.
• NDP - They have 3 candidates nominated (1 of 3 in a contested nomination in NWC, although CCMV was originally to be contested until 1 candidate withdrew), and a 4th set to be announced by Deputy Leader Thomas Mulcair on Tuesday for MIKR, he also told CTV Question Period. UPDATE: The name of the candidate is François Lapointe. He was the only candidate to run for the nomination, and will be acclaimed on Tuesday, a reader writes to advise. He works as a project manager with the literacy group L'ABC des Hauts Plateaux Montmagny-L'Islet, according to LaVoixduSud.com.
  
• Greens - They have acclaimed candidates in the 2 non-Québec ridings, which seems to pretty much rule party leader Elizabeth May out of running in this set of by-elections.
  
• Bloc Québécois - They just acclaimed Paul Crête's former aide, Nancy Gagnon, in MIKR; and have a contested nomination on their hands in Hochelaga, which still remains unscheduled so far as I know. Running are former PQ Industry Minister (and Bloc Leader Gilles Duceppe's endorsed candidate), Daniel Paillé, and riding association activist, avowed social democrat and math teacher Jean Baribeau.
• Conservatives - They have 3 candidates nominated (1 of 3 in a contested nomination in NWC), with no names as yet in play for Hochelaga that I've heard or read. UPDATE: It appears that Stéphanie Cloutier will be the candidate, although I haven't yet confirmed the date on which she was selected, and whether it was by acclamation, appointment, a contest or just what. Mme. Cloutier is the "directrice de fondation" of the école Jacques-Ouellette (incorrectly spelled in Le Soleil), and is married to the 2008 Conservative candidate in the same riding, Luc Labbé, who is legally blind and spoke last year along with his wife to the school for the blind founded by the grandfather of NDP Leader Jack Layton.
  
• Others - The new leader of the Christian Heritage Party, Jim Hnatiuk, has announced that he will be running in CCMV. I can't guess which riding perennial english-canadian candidate John Turmel will pick this time, but I'm betting on Hochelaga for perennial french-canadian candidate Régent Millette.

Candidates will have until October 19, 2009 at 2:00 p.m. local-time to be officially nominated with Elections Canada, and can drop off the ballot anytime before 5:00 p.m. the same day.

If you have nomination or candidate news about the by-election ridings to pass along, or any candidate website addresses, please get in touch so I can share with other Guide readers.

Labels: Nov 9 2009 By-elections

National Newswatch has just reported that the 4 by-elections have been called for Monday, November 9, which makes sense given the other announcement of earlier today that Prince Charles and Camilla will be visiting Canada in mid-November, as he would not visit the country during an election.

More to follow: Canadian Press story; CTV.ca

Labels: Nov 9 2009 By-elections