We'll conclude this series on the November 2009 by-election poll-by-poll result maps with the British Columbia riding of New Westminster – Coquitlam. (You'll also notice that I got the push-pin colour problem solved, and so apartment and mobile polls appear in the correct colours now.)

This riding was a 3-way race in 2004 and 2006, becoming a close but geographically segregated 2-way race in 2008, and a fairly decisive win in the by-election. Unusually, the NDP won more polls than the Conservatives in 2004, but lost the popular vote and thus the race that year.

The riding is composed of all or part of three municipalities: New Westminster in the lower left-hand corner, Coquitlam in the centre-right, and a part of Port Moody in the top-left corner. Coquitlam polls seem to have voted Conservative over the last number of elections, but by recruiting a candidate from the Coquitlam city council, the NDP was able to make significant inroads there.

Earlier unofficial results had showed the Green party candidate as having just 47 votes at one point. The official voting results, however, placed candidate Rebecca Helps at 1,047 votes: a bit closer to historical levels for that party.

The Liberals' vote share has been declining in the riding since 2004, to the point where they did not win a single poll in the 2008 general election, and won just 1 geographic poll in the 2009 by-election, along with the Special Voting Rules Group 2 (special ballots) which may in fact have been responsible for putting their candidate Ken Beck Lee over the rebate eligibility threshold of 10% of the ballots cast.

Notably, the Conservatives did make their now-characteristic push to get their supporters out to the Advance Polls here, winning them 49%-41%. But they couldn't touch the NDP's Fin Donnelly on election day. And while on the one hand turnout was low across the board, it was apparently so across all parties.

I'll try and get the other bug sorted out this weekend, so that users can select poll maps for the election of their choice. Next, obviously we have to get seriously caught up on nominations, and then I'll try and fulfill a request from several quarters that we look at the proposed changes to the redistribution process, to change the seat allocations by province.

New Westminster – Coquitlam, BC, 2004 GE, Poll-by-Poll Winners:


New Westminster – Coquitlam, BC, 2006 GE, Poll-by-Poll Winners:


New Westminster – Coquitlam, BC, 2008 GE, Poll-by-Poll Winners:


New Westminster – Coquitlam, BC, 2009 By-election, Poll-by-Poll Winners:


Vote Share, Percent of the Electorate, and Number of Polls Won+Tied, by Party, 2000 Tr - 2009 By, New Westminster – Coquitlam, BC

Elec		Lib	NDP	Grn	Cons | CA	Rest
2009 By	% Vote % Elec Won+Tied	10.3% 3.1% 2+0	49.7% 14.9% 175+1	4.3% 1.3% 0	35.7% 10.7% 47+1	-- -- --
2008 GE	% Vote % Elec Won+Tied	11.3% 7.0% 0	41.8% 25.7% 125+2	7.2% 4.4% 0	38.8% 23.9% 87+2	0.8% 0.5% 0
2006 GE	% Vote % Elec Won+Tied	23.5% 15.3% 6+1	38.3% 24.9% 158+3	3.0% 1.9% 0	32.5% 21.2% 73+4	2.6% 1.8% 0
2004 GE	% Vote % Elec Won+Tied	27.4% 17.4% 21+3	32.6% 20.7% 97+3	5.6% 3.6% 0	32.9% 20.9% 88+4	1.5% 0.9% 0
2000 Tr	% Vote % Elec Won+Tied	28.7% 17.6% 12+5	12.8% 7.9% 0+2	-- -- --	8.0% | 47.3% 4.9% | 29.0% 0+2 | 188+5	3.2% 2.0% 0+2

Labels: Google Maps, Nov 9 2009 By-elections, Poll-by-Poll Results

Continuing with the third in our series showing the poll-by-poll maps for the four November by-election ridings tonight we move on to Hochelaga, QC.

The maps tell the story of this riding fairly well: it's a Bloc stronghold through and through, with a pocket of Liberal support in the northwest corner next to St-Léonard. All that's changed over time is that the Liberal support has abated somewhat, and the NDP support has increased to the point where it just passed the Liberals in the by-election, but not in a concentrated enough fashion to win more than 3 polls, although notably they were in previously Bloc-held areas of support rather than Liberal ones (1 in Rosemont and 2 in Hochelaga including the poll where Jean-Claude Rocheleau's campaign office was located). The Conservatives also won one poll here, for the first time since they held the seat for a term in 1988, but as it was just one split (73C) of polling division split into 3 polling stations (73A-73B-73C, along Sherbrooke, across from the hospital), and since they didn't win the other splits, it doesn't appear on the map.

As with many Québec ridings in 2008, the Liberals had increased their vote in Hochelaga. Looking at the vote shares in the 2009 by-election, it could appear that, with the Liberals down about 6 points and the NDP up about 6 points, this represented a vote shift from the former to the latter. Yet the NDP won polls in areas of previous Bloc strength. This example highlights the danger in extrapolating actual vote shifts from riding vote totals. To more accurately answer the question of who switched where, we would need a methodology that, once it confirmed whether the polling division boundaries were consistent over time, examined the party vote changes at the polling division level and looked for patterns of change in all the parties' support.

Next time: New Westminster – Coquitlam, BC.

Hochelaga, QC, 2004 GE, Poll-by-Poll Winners:


Hochelaga, QC, 2006 GE, Poll-by-Poll Winners:


Hochelaga, QC, 2008 GE, Poll-by-Poll Winners:


Hochelaga, QC, 2009 By-election, Poll-by-Poll Winners:


Vote Share, Percent of the Electorate, and Number of Polls Won+Tied, by Party, 2000 Tr - 2009 By, Hochelaga, QC

Elec		Lib	NDP	Grn	BQ	Cons | CA	Rest
2009 By	% Vote % Elec Won+Tied	14.3% 3.2% 13+0	19.6% 4.4% 3+0	3.3% 0.7% 0	51.2% 11.4% 202+0	10.1% 2.2% 1+0	1.5% 0.4% --
2008 GE	% Vote % Elec Won+Tied	20.7% 11.9% 19+2	14.4% 8.3% 0	4.3% 2.4% 0	49.7% 28.6% 198+2	9.2% 5.3% 0	1.7% 0.9% 0
2006 GE	% Vote % Elec Won+Tied	17.2% 9.9% 11+0	8.9% 5.1% 0	4.9% 2.8% 0	55.6% 31.9% 212+0	12.2% 7.0% 0	1.2% 0.7% 0
2004 GE	% Vote % Elec Won+Tied	25.6% 14.5% 22+2	5.5% 3.1% 0	3.0% 1.7% 0	60.1% 34.0% 191+2	4.1% 2.3% 0	1.7% 0.9% 0
2000 Tr	% Vote % Elec Won+Tied	35.7% 19.7% 50+4	1.9% 1.1% 0+1	-- -- --	50.5% 27.9% 161+4	4.0% | 3.4% 2.2% | 1.9% 0+1 | 0+1	4.5% 2.5% 0+1

Labels: Google Maps, Nov 9 2009 By-elections, Poll-by-Poll Results

Tonight we continue our series showing the poll-by-poll maps for the next of the four by-election ridings from last November, Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, QC (aka "MIKR"), along with a table showing the changes in percent of the valid ballots by party (% Vote), percent of the eligible electors by party (% Elec), and number of polls won+tied (Won+Tied).

Since neither the NDP, Green Party nor Christian Heritage Party have regularly cracked 5% in this riding, its story is the changing nature of the two-way race, from a Bloc-Liberal contest in 2000, to a Bloc seat with two opponents of roughly equal strength in 2004, to a Bloc-Conservative race in 2008, and as we all know, a Conservative upset in the by-election.

Since falling behind the Conservatives, the Liberals were only able to win mobile polls in 2006 (6 won + 1 tied) and 2008 (7 won + 1 tied), winning a few geographic polls again in the 2009 by-election (but not their candidate's hometown of Cap-Saint-Ignace) but meantime losing 4 more mobile polls. A mobile poll is taken around to various residential and long-term care facilities for seniors and those who would not otherwise be able to get themselves to a regular polling station, each mobile poll representing one or more residences/locations. From the maps we can see that there are a lot of them in MIKR (but again, remember that for now I just have the use of blue pins, so the colour doesn't tell you who won them just yet).

The maps show that Conservative strength grew from the south part of the riding northwards, from 2004 to the 2009 by-election. The riding adjoins or is closer to other areas of Conservative strength in the south (and indeed the Prime Minister attended an event with Maxime Bernier in Beauce, two ridings over, during the campaign), while the north part adjoins Rimouski and other areas of Bloc strength in the Gaspé peninsula. By 2009, the Conservatives and the Bloc were splitting the polls in Rivière-du-Loup (Bloc candidate Nancy Gagnon's hometown), all but one of which had been won by Paul Crête in 2008. Moreover, they won nearly every poll in their candidate Bernard Généreux's hometown of La Pocatière (also the hometown of former Bloc M.P. Crête), polls that had all been taken by Crête in the general election.

Looking at the raw vote and percent of the electorate for the three parties over time, we can see that Généreux's campaign was able to hold its vote during the by-election, while the Bloc vote dropped by half, and the Liberal vote broke through its earlier low of 2006.

I've added a link to the last map image below, so you can click through to the interactive version. Given the large number of mobile polls being shown, and the less than ideal differentiation between the Bloc and Conservative shades of blue at present, you'll want to be able to zoom in yourself and see what's going on. I'll also be working on making the earlier versions available through the riding profile page as soon as possible, although I need a little programming help finding the bug that's preventing me from doing so now. Sorry about the delay.

Next time: Hochelaga.

Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, QC, 2004 GE, Poll-by-Poll Winners:


Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, QC, 2006 GE, Poll-by-Poll Winners:


Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, QC, 2008 GE, Poll-by-Poll Winners:


Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, QC, 2009 By-election, Poll-by-Poll Winners:


Vote Share, Percent of the Electorate, and Number of Polls Won+Tied, by Party, 2000 Tr - 2009 By, Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, QC

Elec		Lib	NDP	Grn	BQ	Cons | CA	Rest
2009 By	% Vote % Elec Won+Tied	13.2% 4.8% 7+0	4.8% 1.8% 0	1.7% 0.6% 0	37.7% 13.8% 96+4	42.7% 15.6% 150+4	-- -- --
2008 GE	% Vote % Elec Won+Tied	15.4% 8.7% 7+1	5.5% 3.1% 0	2.2% 1.2% --	46.0% 26.1% 183+2	30.6% 17.4% 62+3	0.3% 0.2% 0
2006 GE	% Vote % Elec Won+Tied	14.1% 8.2% 6+1	4.6% 2.7% 0	3.8% 2.3% 0	52.4% 30.8% 232+2	25.1% 14.7% 15+2	-- -- --
2004 GE	% Vote % Elec Won+Tied	29.6% 16.7% 28+3	2.0% 1.1% 0	2.2% 1.2% 0	57.1% 32.3% 219+3	9.1% 5.1% 0	-- -- --
2000 Tr	% Vote % Elec Won+Tied	39.5% 23.0% 87+3	1.1% 0.6% 0+1	-- -- --	48.9% 28.5% 147+3	3.8% | 6.5% 2.2% | 3.8% 0+1 | 0+1	0.2% 0.1% 0+1

Labels: Google Maps, Nov 9 2009 By-elections, Poll-by-Poll Results

Here are the poll-by-poll maps for the first of the four by-election ridings from last November, along with a table showing the changes in percent of the valid ballots by party (% Vote), percent of the eligible electors by party (% Elec), and number of polls won+tied (Won+Tied).

2008 was the outlier election, given that Independent and former Conservative M.P. Bill Casey won every poll but 2 (the NDP won a couple of the indian reserve land polls, which you can see on that map just below the 3 blue push pins near Truro).

By 2009, the riding had returned to a new normal with newly-elected Conservative M.P. Scott Armstrong winning the majority of the polls again (although fewer of them than Casey in 2000), but this time with a more concentrated NDP vote and a more dissipated Liberal one (I say this because the NDP's vote share resulted in more polls won than did the Liberals'). Also note that Christian Heritage Party leader Jim Hnatiuk won his home poll of Enfield in the bottom left-hand corner, and tied for first in two others nearby (the polls are called Goffs and Dutch Settlement).

Due to the late hour, I'll leave the rest of the analysis to my capable readers, and will be interested to read your thoughts in the comments section below.

Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, NS, 2004 GE, Poll-by-Poll Winners:


Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, NS, 2006 GE, Poll-by-Poll Winners:


Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, NS, 2008 GE, Poll-by-Poll Winners:


Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, NS, 2009 By-election, Poll-by-Poll Winners:


Vote Share, Percent of the Electorate, and Number of Polls Won+Tied, by Party, 2000 Tr - 2009 By, Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, NS

Elec		Lib	NDP	Grn	Cons | CA	Rest
2009 By	% Vote % Elec Won+Tied	21.3% 7.6% 8+0	25.7% 9.2% 34+2	3.3% 1.2% 0	45.8% 16.3% 199+2	3.2% 1.3% 1+2
2008 GE	% Vote % Elec Won+Tied	8.5% 4.9% 0	12.3% 7.1% 2+0	-- -- --	5.1% 5.1% 1+0	70.4%* 40.5% 237+0
2006 GE	% Vote % Elec Won+Tied	23.9% 14.7% 4+1	20.7% 12.8% 3+2	2.1% 1.3% 0	52.0% 32.0% 234+1	1.2% 0.7% 0
2004 GE	% Vote % Elec Won+Tied	26.5% 15.9% 10+1	18.9% 11.4% 3+0	3.1% 1.9% 0	50.5% 30.4% 214+1	-- -- --
2000 Tr	% Vote % Elec Won+Tied	26.4% 16.0% 15+4	13.0% 7.9% 8+5	-- -- --	47.4% | 13.1% 28.8% | 8.0% 202+7 | 1+4	0.1% 0.1% 0+3

Labels: Google Maps, Nov 9 2009 By-elections, Poll-by-Poll Results

Commenter "jad" suggested earlier this week that it was about time to retire the Nov 9, 2009 by-election coverage from the top of the main page to its own blogpost, and get back to nominations progress for the 41st General Election. So for posterity here are the party scorecards and charts for future reference.



Validated Results (last updated: Nov. 20, 2009):

	New Westminster – Coquitlam, BC	Hochelaga, QC	Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, QC	Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, NS
Winner	DONNELLY, Fin (M)	PAILLÉ, Daniel (M)	GÉNÉREUX, Bernard (M)	ARMSTRONG, Scott (M)
Contest	NDP-Cons	BQ-NDP	Cons-BQ	Cons-NDP
Polls	225/225	219/219	257/257	245/245
%TO	29.9%	22.3%	36.6%	35.7%
Raw Margin	3376	5551	1425	4900
Votes/Poll	15.0	25.3	5.5	20.0
% Margin	13.8%	31.7%	5.0%	20.1%
% Marg 1-3	39.3%	36.9%	29.5%	24.5%
% Marg 1-4	45.3%	41.1%	37.9%	42.5%

Party Scorecard - 2009 By

2009 By	Lib	NDP	Grn	BQ	Cons	Rest
Vote Pct	14.9% (+0.9%)	24.8% (+5.4%)	2.0% (-1.6%)	21.0% (-3.1%)	36.0% (+13.4%)	1.3% (-15.0%)
Seats		1 (--)		1 (-1)	2 (+2)	(-1)
2nds	(-1)	2 (+1)		1 (+1)	1 (-1)
Rebate Eligib.	4 (+1)	3 (--)		2 (--)	4 (+2)	(-1)
Raw Vote	14,008 (-11,228)	23,245 (-11,444)	1,898 (-4,600)	19,726 (-23,488)	33,827 (-6,806)	1,204 (-27,987)

Coverage of the November 9, 2009 by-elections:

• Summary information on the November 9 By-elections, or click here for another view
• Detailed results for the four November 9 by-election ridings
• Blog posts

	NWC BC	"Chlag" Hochelaga, QC	MIKR QC	CCMV NS
Prev Contest	NDP-Cons	BQ-Lib	BQ-Cons	Ind-NDP
Prev Marg %	3.0%	29.1%	15.4%	56.7%
Elec History	link	link	link	link
Fin Metrics	link	link	link	link
Census Data	link	link	link	link
Google Maps	map	map	map	map
Blog Posts	read	read	read	read

Labels: Nov 9 2009 By-elections

The Conservatives defied nearly all the pundits Monday night, picking up a seat on the south shore of eastern Québec, and regaining their former seat in Nova Scotia more handily than some had expected. The Liberals were shut out of both first- and second-place finishes, but appear at least to have exceeded the 10% vote share threshold required to obtain candidate expense rebates in all four ridings (up from 3 in 2008).

Conservatives also topped the popular vote across the four ridings (with 35.7%), pushing the Bloc (who held that position last time) down to third place (at 20.8% for a drop of 3.3 percentage points) behind the NDP, who jumped a spot to second place with 24.4%. The Liberals kept 4th place in the popular vote, even though they placed 3rd in each riding. The Green Party pulled up the rear with 3.1% overall, down 0.6 percentage points, with no candidate earning a rebate. Their best performance was in New Westminster – Coquitlam, BC (4.3% of the vote), although they did edge out the Christian Heritage Party leader in Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, NS.

It was a disappointing night for the Bloc Québécois, losing their seat in Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, QC to the Conservatives, and with a drop in popular vote of 3.3 percentage points. New Democrats did not achieve the wildest dreams of their most optimistic supporters, but passed the Liberals in Hochelaga, QC, attained a record vote share in Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, NS, and obtained nearly half the vote in New Westminster – Coquitlam, BC. In fact, the BC race proved not to be close at all.

I should add that many observers were bemoaning the low turnout tonight, but in many cases it wound up higher than ridings in the March, 2008 by-elections.

For those readers who only usually access the Pundits' Guide via an RSS reader, you'll want to visit the site's main page today, to see the Party Election Scorecard, the By-Election Metrics Summary Table, various charts, and all the detailed data for each riding. All the relevant riding and local region charts have been updated as well.

Labels: Nov 9 2009 By-elections, Party Scorecard

With the polls set to close soon, let's take a look at the baseline that each party is starting from, as a way of reminding readers what the Party By-Election Scorecard is going to tell us.

First, a couple of views of the overall electoral history across those 4 ridings, starting with the Bar + Stacked Area Chart:



... and continuing with the Line + Bar Chart:



Then the baseline party scorecard:

Party Scorecard - 2009 By Baseline

2009 By	Lib	NDP	Grn	BQ	Cons	Rest
Prev VotePct	14.1%	19.3%	3.6%	24.1%	22.6%	16.3%
Prev Seats		1		2		1
Prev 2nds	1	1			2
Prev RebateEligib.	3	3		2	2	1
Prev RawVote	25,236	34,689	6,498	43,214	40,633	29,191

It's interesting to note that the Bloc was so strong in its two seats that it won the popular vote across all four, polling some 24.1%. The Conservatives followed with 22.6%, with the NDP third at 19.3%, and the "Rest" (mostly Bill Casey in CCMV) coming in fourth. The Liberals were already running fifth overall in popular vote (at 14.1%) in these four seats. However, they did earn the minimum of 10% needed to receive a candidate rebate in 3 of the 4 seats, as did the NDP, while the Conservatives and Bloc only achieved that threshold in 2 of them. The Bloc obviously held both Quebec seats, while the Conservatives achieved two second-place finishes. The NDP had one seat and one second-place finish, with Independent M.P. Bill Casey making up the other seat. The Liberals had their one second-place standing in the fourth seat.

Turning to the charts, one trend that pops out is the decline in Liberal vote over the four previous elections. In the Transposition of the 2000 election results onto the current boundaries, the Liberals did not win a seat, but they did place second in all four seats, earning some 30% of the vote. Over the next three elections, they lost one second-place finish per election, and overall saw their vote share drop by half.

The Liberal vote was being pushed down by a combination of the rising NDP vote, a slight increase in the Green vote, a one-time increase in the Bloc vote in 2004, followed by an increase in the Conservative vote in 2006, and a huge increase in the Independent/Other vote in 2008. The NDP went from no second place finishes in 2000, to one in 2004, a seat in 2006 and one seat plus one second-place finish in 2008.

The Bloc has held its two seats since 2000 (we only show 2000 and forward here, as that's all that is available for the current boundaries, but obviously they had held them since 1993). The Liberals held the CCMV predecessor seat for one term from 1993-1997, and the NDP held the NWC predecessor from 1988 to 1993. Apart from that, the Conservatives, Canadian Alliance and/or PCs had won the other two until 2006, when the NDP's Dawn Black won in the BC seat, followed by 2008 which saw former PC and Conservative M.P. Bill Casey win re-election as an Independent.

As soon as the polls close in BC, I'll post whatever I have by way of results in chart and table format at the top of the home page of the Pundits' Guide website.

Labels: Nov 9 2009 By-elections, Party Scorecard

I don't know why it is, but any time a news story appears about an election that hasn't occurred yet, the reporter wants to report who will win it, or who is "expected to" win, or "favoured to" win ... and they write it as news.

This has always struck me as really presumptuous when citizens haven't actually had a chance to vote yet (almost antidemocratic, even). I mean if they want to endorse a candidate, fine: write an editorial. If they want to make a prediction, do that in a column. But it drives me crazy when a story says that party XXX is expected to win. Particularly when it's clear the reporter hasn't done much of any research visiting or phoning into the actual riding ... such as this Québec reporter who claims to know the outcome of the Nova Scotia race:

"[E]n Nouvelle-Écosse, dans Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley, les conservateurs semblent bien placés pour reprendre la circonscription détenue par l'indépendant Bill Casey (69 % du vote en 2008)..." -- Guillaume Bourgault-Côté in Le Devoir

... or where they're basing their call on nothing more than previous election results (a longstanding bug-a-boo of mine). This last practice can be particularly unreliable in a by-election, which by definition has no incumbents, and thus can't be compared to the previous result which usually did.

However, I realize I'm not going to win this war. The news organizations are going to keep writing these stories that way, because they want to get ahead of the news, or not miss out on something that "everyone else has".

So instead, I'm just going to document those calls today, and we'll rate the pundits afterwards. If I've missed any pundit predictions or news stories that claim to be reporting as fact the outcome of any of Monday's by-elections, please add them in the comments. Also included are news stories that wrote it straight up without writing predictions as facts.

UPDATE: I've added Chantal Hébert from l'Actualité and Susan Delacourt from the Toronto Star this morning.

FURTHER UPDATE: Craig Oliver made his own prediction for CCMV during the journalists' panel at the end of the show. Thanks to a reader for helping to clear up the confusion.

Journo/Pundit	News Org	Date	NWC	'Chlag	MIKR	CCMV
L. Ian MacDonald	National Post	Nov 6	NDP	BQ	(1.)	Cons
Janyce McGregor	CBC.ca Inside Politics	Nov 6	(2.)
Nick Gamache	CBC.ca Inside Politics	Nov 6			(3.)
Stephen Puddicombe	CBC.ca Inside Politics	Nov 6				(4.)
Doug Ward	Vancouver Sun	Nov 6	(5.)
Joël-Denis Bellavance	La Presse	Nov 7	NDP	BQ	BQ	Cons
Guillaume Bourgault-Côté	Le Devoir	Nov 7	--	BQ	(6.)	Cons
No byline	Radio-Canada.ca	Nov 7			(7.)
No byline	Radio-Canada.ca	Nov 8		(8.)
Canadian Election Watch	blog	Nov 8	NDP	BQ	BQ	Cons
No byline	Canwest News Service	Nov 8	(9.)	BQ	Cons	Cons
No byline	CBC.ca	Nov 8	NDP	BQ	BQ	Cons
Joan Bryden (10.)	CP	Nov 8	NDP	BQ	BQ	Cons
Nelson Wiseman	CTV.ca	Nov 8	(11.)
Ian Munroe	CTV.ca	Nov 8	(12.)	BQ	BQ	Cons
Craig Oliver	Question Period	Nov 8	NDP	BQ	--	Cons NDP
Jean Lapierre (QC only)	Question Period	Nov 8		BQ	BQ
Christy Clark (BC only)	Question Period	Nov 8	NDP
Dan Leger (NS only)	Question Period	Nov 8				(13.)
Althia Raj	Sun Media	Nov 8	(14.)
Philip Authier	Montreal Gazette	Nov 8		(15.)	(16.)
ElectionPrediction.org	blog	Nov 8	NDP	BQ	BQ	Cons
Chantal Hébert	l'Actualité	Nov 9	(17.)	BQ	BQ	(18.)
Susan Delacourt	Toronto Star	Nov 9	(19.)

1. "This is an extremely tight race, too close to call, between the Bloc’s Nancy Gagnon and the Conservatives’ Bernard Généreux. Radio-Canada is calling it 'the Battle of the Lower St. Lawrence'."
2. "I was particularly interested in his belief that the Rivière du Loup riding is too close to call -- I'm not sure that's expected, given that the Bloc won by a double-digit margin in this riding just one year ago....It *should* be safe Conservative turf, but a cruise through the data from the last provincial election suggests the NDP will have a much better showing than they did in Casey's day....Hochelaga should be safe east-end Montreal turf for the Blocquistes, and wouldn't be all that interesting if the BQ candidate hadn't had a bit of a kerfuffle over his nomination, and didn't use to be an advisor to Stephen Harper's Conservative government. But both are true....But the race expected to be the closest -- based on the margin of victory in the last election -- is New Westminster-Coquitlam."
3. "If the race is between the Bloc and the Conservatives, where are the Liberals? According to many here, they're in trouble. Their local organization is largely non-existent and their candidate reportedly entered the race reluctantly. I ended up spending more time than expected in Rivière-du-Loup, a good chunk of it at a garage. A fellow client asked if I was voting for Généreux or that woman from the Bloc. I said I wasn't going to vote on Monday. He said: "Me neither, I'm tired of all those elections'."
   
4. "During this by-election campaign you can't have a conversation without someone mentioning Bill Casey. A local debate this week in Truro was dominated by Casey and his ideals and legacy. I was talking with a couple of dairy farmers about the contest. They both said the choice is simple. Whichever candidate is most like Bill Casey is the person they'll vote for. They didn't care if electing a Conservative gets them closer to those infrastructure cheques with the party logo on them. They didn't care about their candidate making it into cabinet. They just want someone to stick up for them. Someone who will put the region's interests ahead of a political career."
   
5. "New Westminster-Coquitlam is a swing constituency that has produced razor-thin finishes between the NDP and the Conservatives over the past three elections with the NDP winning the last two."
   
6. "Le Bloc québécois perdra-t-il un de ses bastions lors de l'élection partielle de lundi dans Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Rivière-du-Loup (MLKRDL)? Les conservateurs le souhaitent et l'affirment, mais la lutte s'annonce très serrée."
7. "À quatre jours des élections partielles fédérales dans Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Rivière-du-Loup, le Bloc québécois et les conservateurs jouent leur va-tout. Bien que la circonscription soit aux mains des bloquistes depuis 16 ans, les conservateurs et leur candidat, l'ex-maire de La Pocatière Bernard Généreux, croient pouvoir créer la surprise."
8. "Le Bloc québécois et le Nouveau Parti démocratique (NPD) se livrent une dure lutte en prévision de l'élection partielle fédérale de lundi dans Hochelaga."
   
9. "The B.C. riding of New Westminster-Coquitlam has shaped up to be a battleground between the Conservatives' Diana Dilworth and the NDP's Fin Donnelly."
10. "The contests will most likely amount to a confirmation of the status quo, with the Bloc Quebecois hanging on to two ridings in Quebec, New Democrats holding on to another in British Columbia and the Tories reclaiming a Nova Scotia riding that had been a longtime stronghold until Bill Casey, a former Conservative MP, captured it as an independent in 2008. But all four races are sufficiently tight that they could conceivably produce upset victories for the Conservatives and the NDP."
11. "None of the ridings are particularly representative of the country's political landscape, University of Toronto professor Nelson Wiseman told CTV.ca, and voting rates are usually lower outside of general elections. But the results could still shed light on how Canadians feel about how their political parties are performing."
    
12. "The Conservatives won the riding in 2004 but the NDP has held it since then, and the race is expected to be close."
13. He said it would be "down to organization and coattails".
14. "Canadians in four federal ridings head to the polls Monday to cast their ballots in hotly contested byelections."
15. "The Conservatives believe the riding is ripe for change. In the 2008 federal election, the Bloc’s share of the vote slipped from 52 per cent to 46 per cent while the Conservatives crept up to 30 per cent. Add to the mix Généreux, a popular local mayor, and they think they have a chance."
16. "The campaign in Hochelaga has turned into a Bloc-NDP fight to the finish with the NDP turning on the pressure in the belief Hochelaga is ready to flip over to them in much the same way Outremont did."
17. "Le NPD a repris ce siège aux conservateurs l’an dernier et ces derniers voudraient bien le récupérer. Les néo-démocrates ont fait campagne contre l’instauration prochaine d’une taxe de vente harmonisée en Colombie-Britannique. S’ils perdent le comté, ils devront se demander si l’idée de faire payer le prix politique d’une mesure provinciale par le gouvernement d’Ottawa est un pétard mouillé."
18. "Comté bleu où le député conservateur Bill Casey avait été réélu comme indépendant l’automne dernier, après avoir quitté le parti de Stephen Harper pour protester contre la formule de péréquation imposée par le gouvernement. Le NPD, qui vient de s’installer au pouvoir en Nouvelle-Écosse, compte sur l’élan de cette victoire historique pour chauffer les conservateurs aujourd’hui."
19. "The New Democrats and Bloc Québécois have high hopes, while the Conservatives and Liberals are playing down any expectations of seat gains in four by-elections on Monday in Nova Scotia, Quebec and British Columbia....[I]t's possible the Liberals will not place first or even second in any of the by-elections, in what will be sure to be portrayed by opponents as another sign of the shaky state of Ignatieff's leadership."

Note that people were most likely to call Hochelaga, QC for the Bloc, and least likely to call New Westminster – Coquitlam, BC for anyone (although the lone British Columbian, Christy Clark, predicted a likely NDP win). Only Canwest News Service (no byline that I could find anywhere for that story) called Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, QC for the Conservatives. Everyone was ready to call Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, NS for the Conservatives, except the resident Nova Scotians Dan Leger and Steve Puddicombe.

The Globe and Mail used Joan Bryden's story from CP on Sunday, while the Toronto Star has not written about the by-elections at all this weekend that I've noticed, (they have now).

Labels: Media Coverage, Nov 9 2009 By-elections

Shorter John Robson:

"I can't write about the by-elections because no-one else in the mainstream media has written about them. Of course why should we be expected to work that hard when those communities were so thoughtless as to have long hard-to-pronounce names. [Or have so much of their news in french.] Hence these races must be boring."

For the take of someone who's taken the trouble to follow them: L. Ian MacDonald in this morning's National Post.

Labels: Nov 9 2009 By-elections

Here are a few news items from the by-elections that aren't being covered elsewhere, but may be of interest to readers:

• If the Bloc Québécois' Nancy Gagnon is elected in Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, QC next Monday, she will be part of the second married couple to sit in the House of Commons right now, and the third one ever. Gagnon's spouse is Bloc House Leader Pierre Paquette, M.P. for Joliette on the north shore. They would join NDP Leader Jack Layton and his partner Olivia Chow who represent neighbouring Toronto ridings, and follow in the footsteps of Conservative M.P.s Gurmant and Nina Grewal both from Surrey, BC (only Ms. Grewal is still sitting in the Commons). Notwithstanding these precedents, however, the other week Conservative candidate Bernard Généreux questioned how much time, in the face of Gagnon's situation, she might be able to devote to her own constituents.
  
  The two have been sparring over numerous issues, including the post office in La Pocatière, government support for forestry workers, EI reform, the impact of "Buy American" on contracts for Bombardier, and the involvement of former Bloc M.P. Paul Crête in obtaining federal government funding for the area. Généreux has accused Gagnon of "demagoguery"; she's asked him to apologize for denying Crête's role in obtaining some federal funds (she later produced an ad in which he had earlier congratulated Crête for his role, but I wish I could find that clipping again now ;-)); and he's said her accusation about Bombardier was "scandalous". I guess this is what we call a "hotly contested" race.
  
  
• Meantime, with the hotly contested Montréal municipal elections out of the way, the race in Hochelaga has also heated way up, with a pretty frontal assault launched by the NDP Tuesday morning on Bloc Québécois candidate Daniel Paillé's progressive credentials and the extent of his ties to the riding he's running in. The party unveiled a website highlighting aspects of Paillé's past, both in government and the private sector, and tied it to a street poster campaign, featuring a blue cheque with a Conservative logo made out to Paillé, in reference to his work during the last Parliament for former Conservative Minister Michel Fortier on the awarding of opinion research contracts in the federal government. Duceppe and Paillé had scheduled a news conference for Tuesday morning to discuss the Port of Montréal. I haven't seen any coverage of their reaction to the NDP's attacks, as most stories focused instead on Duceppe's refusal to dine with the Royals.
  
  
• Elections Canada has released Advance Voting numbers for the four ridings. I've crunched the numbers below, but early voting interest appears highest in Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, NS and lowest in Hochelaga, QC (probably not surprising, given the much greater interest in municipal politics there in the last few weeks).

Riding	2009 By Electors	2009 By Adv.	2008 GE Electors	2008 GE Adv.
CCMV	67,789	3,397 (5.0% of electorate)	68,831	3,726 (5.4%)
MIKR	77,886	3,092 (4.0%)	78,377	3,931 (5.0%)
'Chlag	78,260	1,829 (2.3%)	79,542	4,184 (5.3%)
NWC	82,226	3,075 (3.7%)	80,755	4,576 (5.7%)

Labels: Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, Hochelaga, Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, New Westminster – Coquitlam, Nov 9 2009 By-elections

I just noticed that Elections Canada has now published the spending limits for registered political parties running candidates in the four by-elections.

The limits are set according to an arithmetic formula, based on the number of electors on the list in each riding, the indexing factor in effect, and the number of candidates being endorsed by a given party across the 4 by-election ridings (see the Elections Canada fact-sheet for a detailed explanation).

We can figure out how much each riding contributes to the total limit, by doing some subtraction using the smaller parties who are only running in 1 or 2 ridings. The candidate preliminary spending limits were already announced earlier in the campaign.

	NWC, BC	'Chlag, QC	MIKR, QC	CCMV, NS
Electors on List	82,226	78,260	77,886	67,789
Regis. Party Limit ($)	$72,004.43	$68,847.53	$68,204.77	$59,362.83
Prelim. Cand. Limit ($)	$89,079.96	$86,734.83	$86,257.35	$86,242.26

This breaks down by party as follows (also shown in the top table on this database page):

	Lib, NDP, Grn, Cons	BQ	CHP	CPC-ML, neoRhino.ca
# of Candidates	4 ea.	2 (both QC)	1 (CCMV)	1 ea. ('Chlag)
Regis. Party Limit ($)	$268,419.56	$137,052.30	$59,362.83	$68,847.53
Prelim. Cand. Limit ($)	$348,314.40	$172,992.18	$86,242.26	$86,734.83

Parties report their by-election spending on Part 3a of their annual returns. Looking at the returns from 2007, for example, we see that, given a registered party spending limit of $171,997:

• the Bloc Québécois and the Green Party spent nothing centrally on the 3 Québec 2007 by-elections, while
  
• the Conservatives spent $158,146.65: largely in Roberval – Lac-Saint-Jean ($75,989.64) and Saint-Hyacinthe – Bagot ($81,789.05), with just $367.96 spent in Outremont
• the Liberals spent 78,832.03, mostly all in Outremont ($75,042.03), while
• the NDP spent $21,003.31, which was evenly split across the 3 ridings.

As this demonstrates, unlike candidates, the parties are under no obligation to distribute their spending across the by-election ridings equally, or to stay under the allotment based on a riding's population in their spending on that riding. In fact, a party might be at an advantage if it were only targetting certain of the by-election seats, and could focus all their central resources on them, as compared with a party that targets and therefore spends equally in each one. In the case of the 2007 Québec by-elections, the Conservatives picked up a seat for all their targetted spending, and nearly picked up another. On the other hand, central spending alone did not help keep Outremont in Liberal hands that time.

In other by-election news, Advanced Voting starts this Friday.

Labels: Election Expenses, Nov 9 2009 By-elections

I've noticed that a few of the candidates have videos out now, so while I work busily away on some things, here are some by-election candidate videos for your viewing pleasure:

Liberal candidate Jim Burrows in CCMV (double-click to play):



NDP candidate Fin Donnelly in NWC:



Green candidate Jason Blanch in CCMV:



Bloc Québécois candidate Daniel Paillé in 'Chlag:



Conservative candidate Bernard Généreux in MIKR:

Labels: Campaign Techniques, Nov 9 2009 By-elections

Still battling a cold here, which demands sleep, and that cuts into precious blogging time. I've made a few database updates tonight, including the victor in the contested Conservative nomination in London North Centre last night (Susan Truppe). Thanks to a reader for bringing this clipping to our attention.

The list of official candidates for the 4 by-election ridings was released yesterday, and it appears that no-one got disqualified, while a new Independent candidate has shown up in Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley CCMV), Kate Graves. I've added in all the finalized candidates to the database now, and updated the graph on the main page. There are 23 candidates running across the 4 by-election ridings, 8 of them women, with both the Liberals and NDP running an all-male ticket. Hochelaga has the highest number of candidates running (8), while New Westminster – Coquitlam (NWC) has just 4 running. Each of the major parties is running a full slate. Five of the candidates won contested nominations in order to run, including 3/4 in NWC, the Liberal in CCMV and the Bloc candidate in Hochelaga, two were appointed (the 2 Liberals in Quebec), while the rest were acclaimed or were nominated as independents.

In other news, here are a few items worth following up on:

• Regular readers will recall that the Canadian Election Study (the academic exit poll that has been conducted after each general election for years) publicly releases its raw data a year after the election was held. I wrote to Professor Elisabeth Gidengil to inquire when the data would be released, and she was kind enough to reply earlier today that the data would be made available on their website shortly (probably on this page, along with many of their publications). They have made earlier datasets available in SPSS format (so, it's not for the casual user), but still and all, it is being made public, which is great.
• On a related note, former M.P. Dennis Gruending in his blog Pulpit and Politics has written the first of a two-part series examining data on voting trends by religious affiliation, looking at a recent study by the Evangelical Fellowship of Canada. In a subsequent post he plans to look at the data collected by the Canadian Election Study on that subject as well, so stay tuned.
• For those who can't get enough of mapping, there have been some very detailed coloured poll-by-poll maps of the 4 by-election ridings posted on Babble (see comment #77) by someone who looks like she or he does this professionally. Here are the links:
  • Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, NS - (this one is for the 2006 results, since Bill Casey won every poll but one of the Indian Reserves in 2008, which he lost to the NDP)
    
  • Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, QC
    
  • Hochelaga, QC
    
  • New Westminster – Coquitlam, BC
    
  There are also other maps linked to by that Babble user in other threads as well, including Outremont from 2006 and 2008.

Thanks to everyone for their patience, and for staying in touch. I hope to be back in fighting form for a productive weekend's work.

Labels: Data Analysis, Nov 9 2009 By-elections

During the last set of by-elections (the ones that were pre-empted by the call of the general election), we started a feature called "Facebook Watch". Since then, Twitter has also become an important vehicle of communication for campaigns, and the last election proved the power of YouTube beyond any doubt.

So, with the official list of candidates set to be released at 2:00 PM Wednesday, here's a first round-up of the various candidates' activities on some of the major social media/Web 2.0 sites: Facebook (full-service social media site), Twitter (140-character status updates), YouTube (video sharing) and Flickr (photo-sharing), along with the counts of their Friends/Supporters (for Facebook) or Followers (for Twitter) as of about 12:30 AM on Wednesday morning Oct. 21.

Party	NWC	'Chlag	MIKR	CCMV
Lib	(101) (104)		(4)	(122)
NDP	(407) (139)	(226) (16)		(149) (17)
Grn	(25) (43)			(133) (11)
BQ		(194)	(124)
Cons	(253)		(66)	(346)
Oth				(39) (20)

The first thing to note is that many of the Twitter follower counts went up by 1 tonight, as I started following any of the candidates I had not found before (that's me @punditsguide).

Next thing to say is that New Westminster – Coquitlam, BC (NWC) is the leader in social media campaigning, with 10 candidate accounts, although that's also likely related to the fact that the seat became vacant first, and has had a full slate of candidates for most of the summer. The next most active riding is Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, NS (CCMV), with 8 candidate accounts, while the Québec ridings follow with 3 each.

The most active party in the social media domain at the moment is the NDP, with 7 candidate accounts across the 4 ridings, followed by the Liberals with 5 candidate accounts (although Liberal Ken Beck Lee in NWC is the only candidate to have a profile on the professional social-networking site LinkedIn, which I decided not to include this go-around, mainly due to lack of time on my part), and the Greens with another 5. The Conservatives have 3 candidate accounts activated, while the Bloc and others (Christian Heritage Party leader Jim Hnatiuk, who is running in CCMV) have 2 each.

In terms of Facebook friends / supporters (it's a different term, depending on the type of Facebook page, but I'm just using the generic term 'friend', since it's stuck over the past few years), the NDP candidates are ahead of the pack in NWC and Hochelaga, while the Conservative candidates are ahead in MIKR and CCMV (where in particular their candidate was nominated quite some time ago).

And turning to Twitter followers, again the NDP candidates are ahead in NWC and Hochelaga, while the Christian Heritage leader is ahead in CCMV.

The NDP candidate in Hochelaga, Jean-Claude Rocheleau is tweeting quite a bit, and doing so exclusively in french. He does not appear to have many followers. But sometime around 10 days ago, a Twitter account entitled "JeanClaudeNDP" invited a lot of people to follow him/her/it, including yours truly and quite a few others. It invited its followers to complete a short survey, saying that the NDP needed their help. Needless to say, the link to this "survey" likely contained a virus, and the account has been tweeting spam ever since. Most of its followers have since vanished, but I'm sure I wasn't the only one to think I had a story that the NDP by-election candidate had been infected by a virus. Mr. Rocheleau's true Twitter account is "jcrocheleau" (linked to above).

Incidentally, I'm indebted to the legwork already undertaken by the Twitter aggregator sites, notably PoliTwitter.ca which maintains detailed profiles of Tweeting candidates and other politicos. TweetCommons.com focuses on the conversations between tweeting politicians (or candidates) and citizens. And of course David Akin maintains the Political Twits directory of Hill denizens who tweet for a living.

We'll check back again next week to see how much progress has been made in cyberspace by the candidates, so if you have information about a tweeting, facebooking, youtubing, flickring candidate, please do get in touch.

Meanwhile we'll be waiting for a news release from Elections Canada, expected some time Wednesday afternoon, announcing the final list of nominated candidates for the 4 by-election ridings. Election day is now less than 3 weeks away.

Labels: Facebook Watch, Nov 9 2009 By-elections

Nominations close Monday at 2:00 p.m. local-time for the 4 by-election ridings. Candidates must present completed nomination papers (opens a PDF file), an endorsement letter signed by their party leader if running for a registered political party, an official agent and a witness, the name of an auditor who has agreed to audit their books, and a cheque for the $1,000 deposit, which is returned once their financial reports are filed after the election.

The nomination papers are interesting to take a look at, if you've never seen them before, and contain all the rules about running, who can run, the kinds of oaths they have to take, the way they're allowed to call themselves on the ballot, and all kinds of other details about the process of how the nomination papers get reviewed and approved.

The one detail they don't cover is the number of signatures required on the papers to be successfully nominated, which is because it varies. In most ridings, candidates must present the signatures of 100 electors from that riding (i.e., eligible to vote, and normally resident within the riding boundaries). However in the large and remote ridings listed in Schedule 3 of the Elections Act, just 50 signatures are required.

Once the nomination papers are filed, the Deputy District Returning Officer (DRO) for that riding reviews them to ensure everything is in order and that all the signatures are from eligible voters in that riding. If not, the candidate's nomination will be rejected, and this has certainly happened in recent history: for example the 2000 Progressive Conservative candidate in Regina – Lumsden – Lake Centre, SK did not meet this threshold and was not confirmed as a candidate. (The story goes that there were dead people names on the papers, but the DRO had attended one of the individuals' funeral, and began to investigate further.) These things can be consequential; for example in this case, the incumbent was defeated by a narrow margin with only 3 candidates on the ballot.

[UPDATE: a reader who would know, wrote to correct my terminology above. DROs are the Deputy Returning Officers who sit at the polling stations next to the Poll Clerks, while District Returning Officers are called ROs. Colloquially we always called returning officers DROs when I worked on campaigns Anyways, that's who I meant to say. In fact, as the reader further points out, that person may not be the individual who actually does the checking either, but is in any event the person responsible for ensuring it happens.]

DROs Returning Officers have 48 hours to verify and confirm the details in the nomination papers, and then Elections Canada releases the names of the candidates who will appear on the ballot, and sets the parties' spending limits for the by-election campaign, which depend on how many candidates each is running.

Note that candidates have until 5:00 p.m. Monday to withdraw their name from the ballot. Candidates resigning after that point will still appear on the ballot (under the name of the party endorsing them on their nomination papers), as we all remember from several examples in the last campaign.

You will notice that Elections Canada has candidates already listed for each riding on their by-election website right now. These are the lists of "registered" candidates; basically candidates who have already contacted the DRO to indicate their intentions to run, whether they have nomination papers completed or not.

On this basis, we can say that the neoRhino.ca candidate Gabrielle Anctil is now a registered candidate according to the list for Hochelaga, and perennial candidate John Turmel has registered to run as an independent candidate in that riding as well.

--------------

I've also been making some database updates for general election nominations, but blogging is light at present, to permit me the time to delve into a new topic for a future Pundits' Guide project.

Thanks to everyone who has been staying in touch to keep us apprised of candidate developments.

Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Nov 9 2009 By-elections

I've now added the fourth Google Map in the set of by-election ridings, shown in context of their neighbouring ridings, the map for Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, QC.

As you can see from this screenshot (click on the image to take you to the actual live Google Map, or reach it from the top of the main Pundits' Guide page while we're still in by-election mode), the riding of MIKR straddles an area of Bloc seats to the north-east and an area of mainly Conservative seats to its south-west. And indeed many commentators believe the contest here could swing between those two parties.



You can click on any riding in the Google Map itself to find out which one it is, or you can browse the neighbouring ridings by opening up one of the nodes in the left-hand column and clicking on its square (not shown here, but you'll see what I mean when you get there).

Notice that the Conservative ridings are coloured in the darker shade of blue, while the Bloc ones are in a lighter shade. The independent-held riding of Portneuf – Jacques-Cartier, QC is grey with a dark grey border, while MIKR (since it's vacant) is grey but with a white border.

Being a Google Map, of course you can zoom in and out, switch to satellite view and back again, or just pan across using your mouse.

Labels: Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, Nov 9 2009 By-elections