Here are a few news items from the by-elections that aren't being covered elsewhere, but may be of interest to readers:

• If the Bloc Québécois' Nancy Gagnon is elected in Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, QC next Monday, she will be part of the second married couple to sit in the House of Commons right now, and the third one ever. Gagnon's spouse is Bloc House Leader Pierre Paquette, M.P. for Joliette on the north shore. They would join NDP Leader Jack Layton and his partner Olivia Chow who represent neighbouring Toronto ridings, and follow in the footsteps of Conservative M.P.s Gurmant and Nina Grewal both from Surrey, BC (only Ms. Grewal is still sitting in the Commons). Notwithstanding these precedents, however, the other week Conservative candidate Bernard Généreux questioned how much time, in the face of Gagnon's situation, she might be able to devote to her own constituents.
  
  The two have been sparring over numerous issues, including the post office in La Pocatière, government support for forestry workers, EI reform, the impact of "Buy American" on contracts for Bombardier, and the involvement of former Bloc M.P. Paul Crête in obtaining federal government funding for the area. Généreux has accused Gagnon of "demagoguery"; she's asked him to apologize for denying Crête's role in obtaining some federal funds (she later produced an ad in which he had earlier congratulated Crête for his role, but I wish I could find that clipping again now ;-)); and he's said her accusation about Bombardier was "scandalous". I guess this is what we call a "hotly contested" race.
  
  
• Meantime, with the hotly contested Montréal municipal elections out of the way, the race in Hochelaga has also heated way up, with a pretty frontal assault launched by the NDP Tuesday morning on Bloc Québécois candidate Daniel Paillé's progressive credentials and the extent of his ties to the riding he's running in. The party unveiled a website highlighting aspects of Paillé's past, both in government and the private sector, and tied it to a street poster campaign, featuring a blue cheque with a Conservative logo made out to Paillé, in reference to his work during the last Parliament for former Conservative Minister Michel Fortier on the awarding of opinion research contracts in the federal government. Duceppe and Paillé had scheduled a news conference for Tuesday morning to discuss the Port of Montréal. I haven't seen any coverage of their reaction to the NDP's attacks, as most stories focused instead on Duceppe's refusal to dine with the Royals.
  
  
• Elections Canada has released Advance Voting numbers for the four ridings. I've crunched the numbers below, but early voting interest appears highest in Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, NS and lowest in Hochelaga, QC (probably not surprising, given the much greater interest in municipal politics there in the last few weeks).

Riding	2009 By Electors	2009 By Adv.	2008 GE Electors	2008 GE Adv.
CCMV	67,789	3,397 (5.0% of electorate)	68,831	3,726 (5.4%)
MIKR	77,886	3,092 (4.0%)	78,377	3,931 (5.0%)
'Chlag	78,260	1,829 (2.3%)	79,542	4,184 (5.3%)
NWC	82,226	3,075 (3.7%)	80,755	4,576 (5.7%)

Labels: Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, Hochelaga, Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, New Westminster – Coquitlam, Nov 9 2009 By-elections

I've now added the fourth Google Map in the set of by-election ridings, shown in context of their neighbouring ridings, the map for Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, QC.

As you can see from this screenshot (click on the image to take you to the actual live Google Map, or reach it from the top of the main Pundits' Guide page while we're still in by-election mode), the riding of MIKR straddles an area of Bloc seats to the north-east and an area of mainly Conservative seats to its south-west. And indeed many commentators believe the contest here could swing between those two parties.



You can click on any riding in the Google Map itself to find out which one it is, or you can browse the neighbouring ridings by opening up one of the nodes in the left-hand column and clicking on its square (not shown here, but you'll see what I mean when you get there).

Notice that the Conservative ridings are coloured in the darker shade of blue, while the Bloc ones are in a lighter shade. The independent-held riding of Portneuf – Jacques-Cartier, QC is grey with a dark grey border, while MIKR (since it's vacant) is grey but with a white border.

Being a Google Map, of course you can zoom in and out, switch to satellite view and back again, or just pan across using your mouse.

Labels: Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, Nov 9 2009 By-elections

After a bit of digging, and with a little help from our friends, I've been able to collect a bit more news about who'll be running in the by-election ridings in Québec.

• Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, QC - Liberals announced today that, as expected, retiring Cap-Saint-Ignace mayor Marcel Catellier will be their candidate for the by-election. Mr. Catellier was appointed today, and will be introduced to the media by former candidate Jean Bouchard on Thursday morning, reports InfoDimanche.com. The NDP was to introduce its acclaimed candidate, literacy worker François Lapointe, tonight, with Leader Jack Layton and deputy leader Thomas Mulcair on hand, but I haven't seen any coverage as yet. The Greens are expecting to announce their candidate soon, I'm told. Meanwhile Conservative candidate Bernard Généreux launched his campaign earlier today, reports Radio-Canada.
  
• Hochelaga, QC - The Liberals announced Harvard grad and university prof Robert David as their candidate for Hochelaga about an hour ago. The economist, who is also active in international development work, was appointed this evening by Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff. Meanwhile, Conservative candidate Stéphanie Cloutier now has a website up and running. I haven't been able to ascertain the date or status of her nomination (acclaimed, appointed, won a contested nomination, etc.), so if anyone knows please get in touch. The Bloc Québécois has scheduled its contested nomination meeting for Thursday, October 8, according to the Bloc website's events calendar. Math teacher Jean Baribeau, who calls himself a "confirmed sovereigntist and social democrat", will challenge Gilles Duceppe's hand-picked candidate and newly appointed economic advisor, a former PQ Industry Minister and École des Hautes Études Commercials prof, Daniel Paillé. The Greens have named plumber/fitter Christine Lebel as their candidate, but again I'm still waiting to hear the date on which she was selected, and the nomination type. NDP candidate Jean-Claude Rocheleau's campaign claimed they were ready to go and on the streets within hours of the by-election being called, according to a news release issued by his campaign earlier today.

If you have by-election news to share, in either language, why not drop us a note to pass it along.

Labels: Hochelaga, Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, Nov 9 2009 By-elections

A few items to report tonight:

• South Shore – St. Margaret's, NS - Former M.P. and three-time NDP candidate in this riding, Gordon Earle won the contested nomination here this afternoon, and will now have a fourth rematch with long-time Conservative M.P. Gerald Keddy, and a Liberal candidate to be picked at their contested nomination meeting next weekend. Thanks to a reader for writing in with this information this evening.
  
• Sackville – Eastern Shore, NS - A Liberal nomination was apparently held in this riding this afternoon, according to the Nova Scotia Liberal party website. I have been unable to confirm the result, but understand through a follower on Twitter that 2008 candidate Carolyn Scott had declared her intention to run again. The riding is currently held by five-term NDP M.P. Peter Stoffer.
  
• Manicouagan, QC - I've just noticed a contested Liberal nomination posted at the Elections Canada website, in which André Forbes placed ahead of Charles Dufour on Sunday, August 30. The riding is currently held by six-term Bloc Québécois M.P. Gérard Asselin, who was renominated on June 7, 2009.
• Etobicoke North, ON - Immigration Minister Jason Kenney attended a fundraising dinner earlier this evening for the new Conservative candidate in this riding northwest of Toronto. Priti Lamba was acclaimed here on September 9. Ms. Lamba will now face first-time Liberal M.P. Kirsty Duncan.
• UPDATE: Burnaby – New Westminster, BC - We earlier reported that former Conservative M.P. Paul Forseth has now declared his candidacy for this riding, after scheduling difficulties prevented him from running in the vacant seat of New Westminster – Coquitlam, BC. However, according to the Burnaby Politics blog, Forseth will have a competitor for the nomation, Andy Radia, a self-described first generation Canadian and political columnist. The riding is currently represented by three-term NDP M.P. Peter Julian, who was renominated by acclamation Sunday evening himself. Check out the comments on the blogpost there to see the latest on who might run here for the Liberals.
  

In addition, a number of NDP incumbents were renominated today, including leader Jack Layton; and the formalization of the Bloc Québécois' candidate in the vacant seat of Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, QC was also set to take place today. Those candidates have all been entered into the database now. Thanks to everyone for passing along the details.

Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Bloc Québécois, Conservatives, Liberals, Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, NDP

There's a fair bit of news to catch up on in the likely by-election ridings today, starting on the east coast:

• Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, NS - We earlier reported that there would be a contested NDP nomination here on Thursday, September 24. However events have continued to unfold, according to the Babble thread on the riding, with the result that 2008 candidate Karen Olsson has decided to withdraw and support wild blueberry farmer and Truro town sustainability coordinator, Mark Austin, who is now expected to be acclaimed at a rescheduled nomination meeting on Wednesday, September 30. Meantime, the Green Party acclaimed addictions counsellor and substitute teacher Jason Blanch as their candidate on Tuesday, September 1. Thanks to the GPC for contacting us with this information. With Austin's nomination for the NDP, the riding will have a full slate in place, at least so far as the major parties are concerned. The by-election here must be called by Tuesday, October 31 at the latest, for a date on or after Monday, December 9.
• Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, QC - New Democrats in this riding have scheduled a nomination meeting for Tuesday, October 6, a reader writes to advise. No further details are available for the moment, however. The recently nominated Conservative candidate, Bernard Généreux, notes that a by-election must be called here by Tuesday, October 13, and believes that, if elected, he will then have about six months to prove himself before the next general election which he expects to occur in the spring of 2010, reports InfoDimanche.com. The seat became vacant on the resignation of long-time Bloc Québécois M.P. Paul Crête, who tried unsuccessfully this spring to win the provincial seat opened up by the resignation of ADQ leader Mario Dumont. Crête then withdrew his name for consideration as the Bloc nominee for the by-election, and has since announced he will host a show on a local Kamouraska TV station. Meanwhile, Marcel Catellier, the retiring mayor of Cap-Saint-Ignace, is confirming rumours that he has been approached by Liberal Party officials to consider running, but tells Le Peuple Cote Sud that he hasn't made any decisions about his future as yet. No Green Party candidate has surfaced as yet in this riding. Bloc Québécois candidate Nancy Gagnon is expected to be acclaimed tomorrow (Sunday, September 27). The by-election must be called here by no later than Wednesday, November 18, for a date on or after Monday, December 29.
  
• Hochelaga, QC - While one prospective Bloc Québécois nomination candidate has stepped aside in favour of Bloc Leader Gilles Duceppe's preferred candidate, Daniel Paillé, another one is not going anywhere, reports Les Nouvelles Hochelaga-Maissonneuve. Former aide to former Bloc M.P. Réal Ménard, Benoît Demuy, had been selling memberships since June, but after meeting with Duceppe on September 4, decided to withdraw from the race. Not so for Jean Baribeau, a 25-year resident of the riding and math teacher who describes himself as a "sovereignist and confirmed social democrat" who "has politics in his blood" and thinks people in his community don't want a "parachute candidate". Baribeau had been seeking a meeting with Duceppe all summer while he was selling membership cards, he says, but never got any reply. Meanwhile the Bloc has brought in veteran organizer Patrick Marais to help Paillé with his nomination campaign, according to Le Devoir. Thus there will be at least two candidates for the Bloc nomination meeting, whenever it is held. No word on any prospective Liberal, Conservative or Green candidates as yet, but nominated NDP candidate Jean-Claude Rocheleau has evidently been following the Bloc race, and recently highlighted his own local roots to Les Nouvelles as well.

The Hochelaga by-election can be called as early as this Tuesday, September 29 while the New Westminster – Coquitlam, BC by-election must be called before Tuesday, October 13 (and the New Westminster News Leader reports that all the candidates there are "ready to go"). Thus we will be having at least two and as many as four by-elections this autumn, which could still be eclipsed by a general election, should the government fall in the meantime.

So far, the NDP has a 2 nominated candidates and 2 scheduled nomination meetings; while the Conservatives are nominated in 3/4 ridings, but have no scheduled meeting as yet in the 4th. The Bloc is set to go in one Québec riding, and has a contested but still unscheduled nomination on its hands in the other. The Liberals and Greens are both apparently ready in the 2 ridings outside Québec, and the Liberals appear to have a prospect in one of the Québec ridings. Finally, the Christian Heritage Party will be running its new leader in the Nova Scotia seat.

As soon as the by-elections are called, I'll be moving the Pundits' Guide website into by-election mode, meaning that we'll be tracking the by-elections at the top of the main page, and moving the general election nominations off to the "Search the Database" page (see "Queries for Most Recent Election") for the duration.

Labels: Bloc Québécois, Conservatives, Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, Greens, Hochelaga, Liberals, Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, NDP

OK, grab your double-double and low-fat blueberry muffin because the cross-country roundup of nomination news is getting on the road, starting tonight in one of the vacant seats:

• Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, QC - Local Conservatives met last night to formally nominate their candidate for the forthcoming (by-)election in this riding, the retiring mayor of La Pocatière, Bernard Généreux, with Québec lieutenant Christian Paradis in attendance. Meanwhile the Bloc Québécois has scheduled its nomination meeting for this coming Sunday, and will welcome Bloc Leader Gilles Duceppe as they formalize the nomination of their only declared candidate, Nancy Gagnon, a former aide to former Bloc M.P. Paul Crête whose resignation opened up the seat. The by-election here must be called by Wednesday, November 18, although that would put E-day on something like Monday, December 29 for a short writ, so I'm guessing the Prime Minister either calls it earlier with New Westminster – Coquitlam, BC and Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, NS and possibly Hochelaga, QC, or else he waits and calls this one and Hochelaga together in the new year.

In other news, some other candidates have been selected in the past few days, and some meetings have been set. Let's drive from east to west:

• Halifax, NS - A good turnout was reported Tuesday night (September 22) for the contested Liberal nomination in this riding, which saw medical doctor and adolescent mental health researcher Stan Kutcher defeat Chris Crowell by a vote of 351 to 204. Kutcher will now face first-time NDP M.P. Megan Leslie. No Conservative or Green candidates have been identified as yet. Thanks to several folks who reported on the meeting via Twitter!
  
• Fundy Royal, NB - Area Liberals have called a nomination meeting for Wednesday, September 30, and to date the only declared candidate is Habitat for Humanity director of operations and long-time Liberal volunteer Dave Delaney, reports the Kings County Record. The riding is currently held by three-term Conservative M.P. Rob Moore, who defeated PC-turned-Liberal M.P. John Herron in 2004, and obtained over 50% of the vote last time around. This riding was also the only riding in New Brunswick where the Liberals fell to third place behind the NDP's Rob Moir on his second time running. It's not known if Moir, an economic professor at UNB, is planning to run again.
  
• Miramichi, NB - We mentioned earlier that the contested Liberal nomination race here was down to three candidates, and a reader has been kind enough to get in touch and advise us of the nomination date, which has now been set for October 3. Keith Vickers, a former aide to former Liberal M.P. Charlie Hubbard, Véronique Arsenault, who recently stepped down as Chamber of Commerce executive director, and riding president Rob Hutchison will vy for the opportunity to face first-time Conservative M.P. Tilly Gordon-O'Neill in the next election. No news on any other party candidates here yet.
• Brome – Missisquoi, QC - The 2008 NDP candidate, Christelle Bogosta, in this riding was renominated here by acclamation Tuesday night, where she'll be running against two-term Bloc Québécois M.P. Christian Ouellet, and former Liberal M.P. Denis Paradis. Thanks to a reading for passing along the details of this meeting.
  
• Compton – Stanstead, QC - As reported here earlier, three-term Bloc Québécois M.P. France Bonsant was to be renominated here by acclamation tonight. Her Liberal opponent, 2008 candidate William Hogg, was nominated in late July, and the seat was on Denis Coderre's list of target seats as reported by Le Devoir earlier this summer. The Liberals last won this seat with former PC-turned-Liberal M.P. David Price running for them in 2000. Bonsant switched places with him in vote share in 2004, and has continued to win against a divided opposition vote.

It's also worth making another pitstop here for a second to highlight the visit made Tuesday to Québec city by Bloc Leader Gilles Duceppe to introduce his candidates for the Capital Region, some of whom have been nominated while some are still only declared. It's clear that the Bloc is focussing a great deal of effort to retake seats from the Conservatives in the provincial capital. Here's who was in attendance at the event:

• Québec, QC - Six-term Bloc M.P. Christiane Gagnon (not yet renominated)
• Beauport – Limoilou, QC - Michel Létourneau (not yet nominated, and a new name for us), who will be running against two-term Conservative M.P. Sylvie Boucher
• Charlesbourg – Haute-Saint-Charles, QC - Félix Grenier (not yet nominated, and another new name for us), who will be running against two-term Conservative M.P. Daniel Petit
  
• Louis-Saint-Laurent, QC - France Gagné (nominated June 14, 2009), who will be running against two-term Conservative M.P. Josée Verner, and recently nominated Liberal candidate Johanne Brisson. Some Liberals believe this seat will be their best hope in the city.
  
• Louis-Hébert, QC - First-time Bloc M.P. Pascal-Pierre Paillé (nominated May 20, 2009)
• Portneuf – Jacques-Cartier, QC - Richard Côté (nominated September 8, 2009), who will be running against two-term Independent M.P. André Arthur in this seat that surrounds the city of Québec. Duceppe has been scathing in recent weeks about Mr. Arthur's attendance record and effectiveness, and has made no bones about the fact that he wants to win the seat back for the Bloc.
• Montmorency – Charlevoix – Haute-Côte-Nord, QC - Six-term Bloc M.P. Michel Guimond (not yet renominated), from further north-east of the city
  

Continuing across the country, our next stop is in eastern Ontario:

• Kingston and the Islands, ON - Daniel Beals finished ahead of Pauline Kuhlmann in the contested NDP nomination race in this riding this past Tuesday, September 22, which now has all candidates in place save for the incumbent, Commons Speaker and Liberal M.P. Peter Milliken. Milliken is subject to continued speculation that he will not run for his seat again, but last I read had maintained his intention to do so. Thanks to several readers for getting in touch about this riding in the past few days.
  
• Trinity – Spadina, ON - Two-term NDP M.P. Olivia Chow was to be renominated by acclamation in this seat on the same evening. She now faces a rematch with recently renominated Liberal candidate Christine Innes, and renominated 2008 Green candidate Stephen La Frenie. CTV's Graham Richardson told Power Play the other day that he was watching this seat as a barometer of the overall NDP-Liberal contest, citing Ms. Chow's 2008 margin of 3,484 votes. If you consult the riding profile page for this riding, you'll see that this represents a 5.8% margin, or 11.2 votes per poll. No Conservative name has surfaced in this riding as yet.
  
• Beaches – East York, ON - A good catch by the Liberal Scarf blog, who found this clipping from the Toronto Star in which two-time federal NDP candidate and former provincial cabinet minister Marilyn Churley has ruled herself out of running federally next time and is turning her eyes municipally. The seat has been another perennial target of the NDP, which held its predecessor for many years under Neil Young and Andrew Brewin before him, but has been unable to unseat six-term Liberal M.P. Maria Minna, even though it holds the seat provincially.
  
• Oakville, ON - Big crowds were also on hand Tuesday, according to a Twitter correspondent, for the 2-way 4-way contested nomination in this riding, eventually won by municipal councillor Max Khan. Khan will now face first-term Conservative M.P. Terence Young, who won the seat on his second match against former Liberal M.P. Bonnie Brown.
  
• St. Catharines, ON - Andrew Gill was to be acclaimed as the Liberal candidate here the same evening, and will now face two-term Conservative M.P. Rick Dykstra, and Green Party candidate Jennifer Mooradian, who was acclaimed on June 25 (thanks to a reader for getting in touch to pass along the Green nomination info).
  
• Niagara Falls, ON - Our Twitter correspondent was on duty again Wednesday night, at this uncontested Liberal nomination where lawyer Bev Hodgson was formalized as her party's candidate, after the withdrawal of Joyce Morocco to attend to family health concerns. Hodgson will be taking on long-time Conservative M.P. Rob Nicholson.
  
• Oxford, ON - In the first of two potential party-switchers we're covering tonight, the Woodstock Sentinel-Review is reporting that the former 2004 and 2006 Marijuana Party candidate in this riding, small-business owner Jim Bender, is putting the finishing touches on his nomination papers to run under a red banner this time after some area Liberals had mused earlier in the summer about trying to recruit him. Bender cites his potential appeal to current non-voters as a competitive advantage, along with his previous experience as a candidate, believing that "the party will allow some flexibility to express his opinions and does not treat candidates in a heavy handed manner". Should Bender be successful, it would be third match against three-term Conservative M.P. Dave MacKenzie.
• Thunder Bay – Rainy River, ON - First-time NDP M.P. John Rafferty was to be acclaimed after a 3-day 3-city nomination process in this northwestern Ontario riding tonight, and will now face the Liberal M.P. he defeated, former Liberal M.P. Ken Boshcoff, in their 4th rematch since 2004.
• Westlock – St. Paul, AB - Also tonight, Liberals were meeting to formalize the nomination by acclamation of new candidate Rob Fox. Thanks to a reader for passing this information along. This northern Alberta riding is currently represented by two-term Conservative M.P. Brian Storseth, who obtained 72.7% of the vote last time around as turnout dropped to 51.1%.
  
• Richmond, BC - The Richmond Review is reporting that some 3,800 Liberals are eligible to vote at this 3-way battle for the party nomination in this west coast riding. Running are two former Liberal M.P.s for the riding, Raymond Chan and Joe Peschisolido, and a former nomination candidate in a neighbouring riding Mason Loh. The riding was won as part of the Conservatives' successful strategy to target new Canadians in the last election, resoundingly electing first-time Conservative M.P. Alice Wong with nearly 50% of the vote.
  
• North Vancouver, BC - Thanks to a reader, we learn from the North Vancouver Politics blog of another potential party switcher: none other than "Green Jim" Stephenson, who you'll recall stepped down as candidate and switched into this riding, in order to allow former Liberal M.P. Blair Wilson to cross the floor and run as a Green in the last election in neighbouring West Vancouver – Sunshine Coast – Sea to Sky Country, where Stephenson had originally been nominated. He now says he's concluded that "Green popularity between elections is high but, strategic voting during elections is what stops them from getting any seats", that "running again as a Green in North Van. would all but, guarantee Andrew Saxton's re-election", and that "the best bet is to try to be elected as a Green Liberal because the environmental issues we face are too dire to wait for voter reform to elect Green Members to Parliament". He said he nearly wasn't going to run at all, believing that running against former Liberal M.P. Don Bell (who is yes apparently going to go for it, as has been speculated here earlier) would be a "long shot". There's a good cross-section of comments on the blogpost that will give you a feeling for the local colour. As mentioned above, the riding was won by first-time Conservative M.P. Andrew Saxton in a surprise upset over former Liberal M.P. and one-time Mayor of North Vancouver Don Bell. Since his defeat, Bell tried unsuccessfully to win a BC Liberal nomination for the recent provincial election.

Speaking of former Liberal M.P.s, I fished out and updated my list of who's in and who's out, given the trend we were observing. As things stand at present, there are 21 former Liberal M.P.s either nominated, running for the nomination, or said to be interested in running for the forthcoming election.

Nominated (12) are: Alghabra, Boshcoff, Maloney, Paradis, Pratt, Redman, Simard, Speller, St.-Amand, Telegdi, Temelkovski, Valley.

Running (6) are: Bell, Chan, Peschisolido, Thibault, Turner, Wells.

Said to be interested (3) are: Bakopanos, Torsney, Zed.

Not running (14) are: Allard, Bertrand, Cauchon, Copps, Godbout, Kadis, Keeper, Keyes, Lastewka, Macklin, McArthur, Scherrer, St.-Denis, Stronach, Whelan.

To get on the last list, the former MPs had to have been reported to be approached to run and declined, or have a news story in which they ruled themselves out from running again, thus allowing the riding to launch a new candidate search. Some others on the list were reported to have been sidelined (wanting to run again, but either told not to or observed that they could not win), or else they lost a nomination meeting.

OK, that was a long drive, but if you have news we can stop in to report on our next cross-country nominations road-trip, why not drop us a line. And follow along @punditsguide on Twitter, where you too could be a Twitter correspondent from a nomination meeting in your area.

Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Bloc Québécois, Liberals, Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, NDP

Before we return to general nomination news in Québéc, news from one of the vacant ridings:

• Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, QC - Long-time Bloc Québécois political aide and one-time Parti Québécois candidate Nancy Gagnon has met with the local riding association, reports the Kamouraska community tv station, and emerged to announce that she will be seeking her party's nomination for the forthcoming election (or by-election, whichever comes first). No word on when the nomination meeting will be held, or who else might be running, although it does seem that by this point we likely would have heard if former Bloc M.P. Paul Crête (who stepped down for an unsuccessful provincial run this past spring) was interested in running again himself. The soon-to-be-retiring Mayor of La Pocatière, Bernard Généreux appears to be the leading candidate for the Conservative nomination there ... and may even be nominated already, although I haven't found any evidence of it yet ... and 2008 Liberal candidate Jean Bouchard is said to be thinking about running again.
  

We earlier reported on some brewing developments in Conservative nomination news in Québec, and since then 9 candidates have been announced, 7 on Friday and a further 2 Monday, including the names we had heard about late last week. Thanks to a reader for sending these links along. The candidates are:

• Gaspésie – Îles-de-la-Madeleine, QC - Régent Bastien, a teacher and former mayor of Paspébiac, will be running against three-term Bloc Québécois M.P. Raynald Blais in this far-eastern Québec riding.
  
• Bas-Richelieu – Nicolet – Bécancour, QC - Further down the south shore, Réjean Bériault, a manager in the real estate business, will be running against the dean of the House of Commons, long-time Bloc Québécois M.P. Louis Plamondon. Plamondon was recently feted on his 25th anniversary in the Commons, having been first elected as a Conservative M.P. in the 1984 sweep. The word I have heard from that shindig is that he has every intention of running again.
  
• Berthier – Maskinongé, QC - Across the river from him, former political aide and businesswoman, Marie-Claude Godue who ran in 2008, has been nominated to stand again, and will face three-term Bloc Québécois M.P. Guy André and recently nominated Liberal candidate Francine Gaudet. Godue placed second here last time in the last two elections, moving ahead of the Liberals, although their vote shares started to balance out a bit by 2008.
  
• Saint-Bruno – Saint-Hubert, QC - Municipal councillor and 2008 candidate Nicole Charbonneau Barron is set to run again in this south shore riding across from Montréal. The riding is currently held by three-term Bloc Québécois M.P. Carole Lavallée, and area Liberals recently nominated their candidate, Michel Picard, as well. The Conservatives placed second here in 2006, but dropped to third under Godue in 2008.
  
• Saint-Lambert, QC - Qais Hamidi, of Afghani background, runs a professional services firm that works with governments overseas, and is taking up the Conservative mantle in this neighbouring south shore riding. The seat is currently held by Josée Beaudin, who retained it for her party during a lengthy by-election campaign that was eventually cancelled and superceded by last year's fall general election. The Liberals also recently renominated their 2008 candidate Roxanne Stanners.
  
• Brossard – La Prairie, QC - Maurice Brossard, a businessman and former teacher, ran one riding further west, which saw a surprising upset last fall as first-time Liberal M.P. Alexandra Mendès defeated one-term Bloc Québécois M.P. Marcel Lussier, who had in turn defeated former Liberal M.P. Jacques Saada two years earlier. Mr. Brossard's almost 20% vote share, along with a reasonably strong performance by first-time NDP candidate pharmacist Hoang Mai last time (13%) turned the riding into a mathematical four-way race in 2008, in addition to meeting the criteria for a close two-way race for the last 3 elections running. Mai was one of the Québec candidates featured in the NDP's convention video, and can probably therefore be assumed to be running again as well.
  
• Laurier – Sainte-Marie, QC - Charles K. Langford, a UQAM prof in managerial sciences and his party's 2008 candidate in this east Montréal riding held by Bloc Québécois leader Gilles Duceppe, will be carrying his party's banner once again.
  
• Outremont, QC - Rodolphe Husny, a student, chartered accountant an auditor, blogger and Junior Chamber of Commerce member, will represent his party in this central Montréal riding held by two-term NDP M.P. Thomas Mulcair. [UPDATE: Apologies; I seem to have read that news release incorrectly, and appreciate the reader getting in touch to straighten me out.]
  
• Vaudreuil – Soulanges, QC - Labour lawyer Claude-Marc Boudreau is going to pick up where Michel Fortier left off in this riding, and will face three-term Bloc Québécois M.P. Meili Feille.
  

I've also just noticed a couple of newly posted Conservative nominations from August at the Elections Canada website:

• Cape Breton – Canso, NS - New Conservative candidate Clarence Derrick Kennedy was nominated by acclamation on August 5, 2009, according to Elections Canada. He will face four-term Liberal M.P. Rodger Cuzner.
  
• Etobicoke – Lakeshore, ON - First-time candidate Bernard Trottier also won his nomination by acclamation on August 10, 2009 Elections Canada reports. Trottier will be replacing former Progressive Conservative M.P. Patrick Boyer who ran last time against two-term Liberal M.P. and party leader Michael Ignatieff.
  

In New Brunswick news (h/t the Liberal Scarf):

• Saint John, NB - Paul Zed is still not saying whether he plans to run for the Liberal nomination or not, however the Liberal riding president says no nomination meeting will be held here now until election is called, reported the Telegraph-Journal earlier this week. In other news from the same story ...
  
• Miramichi, NB - A fourth candidate is now in the running for the Liberal nomination in this riding, which was snatched from them when first-time Conservative M.P. Tilly O'Neill-Gordon defeated long-time Liberal M.P. Charles Hubbard lasat fall. We earlier reported three candidates who were in the race: Hubbard's former aide Keith Vickers, Véronique Arsenault, who recently stepped down as Chamber of Commerce executive director, and former Miramichi Mayor John McKay, and they've now been joined in the frey by Rob Hutchison (no biographical information available).
  
• New Brunswick Southwest, NB - Long-time Greg Thompson tells the Telegraph-Journal that he is nominated and will be running again in what will be his 8th election. No other party candidates have been mentioned in this riding as yet.
  

Some upcoming new Liberal nomination meetings:

• Sat 12 Sep - Burnaby – Douglas, BC - Thanks to a reader for drawing our attention to this recently-scheduled meeting, where it appears that 2008 Vancouver East Liberal candidate Ken Low will be unopposed for the Liberal nomination. The riding is currently held by three-term NDP M.P. Bill Siksay, who took over the seat from his former boss long-time NDP M.P. Svend Robinson after the latter's legal difficulties forced him to resign just before the 2004 election. While Robinson had been one of the only two NDP incumbents to hang on in 1993, the riding has in fact been settled by less than 5% between New Democrats and either the Liberals or Conservative/Alliance candidates since 2000, but has also met the mathematical criteria for a 3-way race in all but one of those elections as well. Low's candidacy appears to spell the end of the 3-election effort by BC Liberal insider Bill Cunningham to take the seat. Cunningham came tantalizingly close to Siksay in 2004 and 2006, but fell to third place behind Conservative candidate Ronald Leung in 2008.
  
• Sun 13 Sep - West Vancouver – Sunshine Coast – Sea to Sky Country, BC - A tip of the hat to the Liberal Scarf blog for this clipping from the North Shore News, which reports that Daniel Veniez will indeed be acclaimed as the Liberal candidate, as we reported here earlier, at a meeting now scheduled for the night before the House of Commons is set to return. The riding is currently held by first-time Conservative M.P. John Weston, who reclaimed it for his party from one-term Liberal-turned-Green M.P. Blair Wilson, who in turn had narrowly picked up the seat the time before following the retirement of former Conservative M.P. John Reynolds. While Wilson had nearly caught up with Reynolds in 2004, and just narrowly moved ahead of Weston in 2006 to pick up the seat, Weston won it quite decisively in 2008, due in part to Wilson's very public legal disputes and subsequent change in party allegiance, which skewed the 2008 results.
• Tue 15 Sep - Victoria, BC - The earlier reader also advises that Oak Bay Mayor Chris Causton will almost certainly be acclaimed as the Liberal candidate here next Tuesday, and will be facing two-term NDP M.P. Denise Savoie.
  
• Sun 20 Sep - Burlington, ON - Another reader was kind enough to pass along the date of the upcoming Liberal nomination meeting in this Golden Horseshoe riding just east of Hamilton, where former Liberal M.P. Paddy Torsney will be running again. Once nominated, she'll be trying for a third time to defeat the two-term Conservative M.P. who defeated her in 2006, Mike Wallace.
  

In other BC news:

• North Vancouver, BC - The North Shore News story above also confirms that former Liberal M.P. Don Bell is indeed considering another federal run in his former seat, which he lost to first-time Conservative M.P. Andrew Saxton in 2008 after serving two terms. Since then, he ran unsuccessfully for a BC Liberal nomination in the recent provincial election. The federal riding has been settled by just under or just over 5% in each of the last three elections. No meeting date has been set as yet.
• Saanich – Gulf Islands, BC - It's almost anti-climactic to report that Green Party Elizabeth May finally announced what everyone has known since August 9, namely that she would be running in this Vancouver Island/Gulf Islands riding in the next election. Of course, she'll have to win her party's nomination first at a meeting now scheduled for September 19 (challenger Stuart Hertzog's candidacy was just approved by the party last week, reports CFAX radio), and will learn the name of her Liberal opponent a week earlier on September 12 when the contested nomination between Kit Spence and Renée Hetherington is resolved. Thanks to a reader for letting us know that the NDP was likely to call its nomination meeting some time this week for a date in several weeks' time. Edith Loring-Kuhanga, the president of First Nations Training & Consulting Services and a Saanich School District Trustee is apparently running, and the reader says there may be several others surfacing yet. Ms. Loring-Kuhanga is Gitksan and originally from Hazelton. If successful, she would be the third nominated first nations or métis candidate for the NDP so far. There does seem to be a higher count of aboriginal candidates from all the parties so far this election cycle, which if my early observation bears out for the rest of the nomination season, is a most welcome development.
  

OK, that's all there's time for tonight. I still owe a big update on Green Party candidates, but it's difficult because they don't post all the details I need, and so they have to be researched one at a time, although I'm grateful to the readers who are helping me with that. The next few weeks are going to be really busy for nomination news, so believe me, every bit of help is greatly appreciated. It will also take me a day or so to get the new Conservative candidates entered into the database, so please stand by.

If you have nomination news or hear of potential candidates, why not get in touch, and help keep this database as up-to-date as possible. Then follow along @punditsguide on Twitter.

Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Bloc Québécois, Conservatives, Greens, Liberals, Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, NDP

The following people are apparently not on the list of Senate appointees, and have determined instead to try and achieve public office the hard way:

• Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, QC - News from one of the by-election ridings that may give us some clues to the unfolding of political events this fall: the Mayor of La Pocatière, Bernard Généreux has told Le Placoteux, Radio-Canada and Le Soleil that he's the Conservative candidate for this riding, and even has a possible date for the by-elections to be called, October 13 (the Tuesday after Thanksgiving). I can't find any evidence that he's been nominated, however, but if anyone knows when and whether it was by acclamation or appointment, please get in touch, so I can enter the name into the Pundits' Guide database and add it to the counts. Bloc Québécois Leader Gilles Duceppe has also been in town for meetings with potential candidates and tells Le Soleil that he hasn't heard the talk that former Bloc M.P. Paul Crête might return, although he's heard from a few others who are interested in running. Meanwhile 2008 Liberal candidate Jean Bouchard tells Radio-Canada that he's a potential candidate and is in discussions with Denis Coderre about running again, and decisions will be taken in due course.
  
• Roberval – Lac-Saint-Jean, QC - Duceppe recently visited another Bloc target seat in the Saguenay and posed with riding president, Claude Pilote, who announced he would be a candidate for the nomination there at a meeting to be scheduled within the coming weeks, according to L'Étoile du lac. Pilote says that the riding has 1300 members now, an increase from 425 in 2008, and believes this portends improved political engagement. The riding is currently held by Conservative M.P. Denis Lebel, who was elected in the Fall 2007 by-elections, and then re-elected in 2008.
  
• Saint-Lambert, QC - Denis Coderre was in Longueuil with 60 or so Liberal activists last Sunday August 23 to see 2008 candidate Roxanne Stanners acclaimed for another run in this south shore riding across from Montréal. Stanners was first nominated to run in the aborted by-election in this riding last fall, which was later cancelled in favour of the general election where Bloc Québécois candidate Josée Beaudin was able to keep her party's seat.
• Gatineau, QC - The people of Gatineau will be seeing a lot of their political leaders if this past weekend is any indication: Liberal nomination candidate Steve McKinnon hosted a community barbecue on the same day as two-term Bloc Québécois M.P. Richard Nadeau hosted his fourth annual corn roast with party leader Gilles Duceppe in attendance, who then stayed on for a second day to campaign with Nadeau. Meanwhile, 2008 NDP candidate and former Liberal M.P. for the area, Françoise Boivin, played an early golf game with Jack Layton before attending the wedding of Layton's long-time press secretary Karl Bélanger; while Denis Coderre and Hull-Aylmer M.P. Marcel Proulx announced that the Liberals would develop a specific platform for western Québec and denied that former party national director Steve McKinnon was Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff's preferred choice to win the Gatineau nomination. The Conservatives say that they are not making any special preparations to find a candidate here, since they don't expect an election to be held soon. Folks, I think this is going to be one hot riding to watch.
  
• Stormont – Dundas – South Glengarry, ON - Both the Liberal and NDP candidates have now been acclaimed in this eastern Ontario riding. First up, 200 Liberals acclaimed Bernadette Clement on Tuesday, August 25. Then the NDP renominated its 2008 candidate, Darlene Jalbert, the following night by acclamation. The riding is currently represented by three-term Conservative M.P. Guy Lauzon, and already has a nominated Green candidate, David Rawnsley, making it the first non-vacant riding by my count to have a full slate of major party candidates nominated and in place (New Westminster – Coquitlam, BC also has a full slate, but it's vacant and awaiting an imminent by-election call).
  
• Leeds – Grenville, ON - 143 Liberals turned out to pick their winner last week in this eastern Ontario riding, selecting Marjorie Loveys in a contested nomination to run against three-term Conservative M.P. Gord Brown, reported the Brockville Recorder and Times for the Kingston Whig-Standard. Meanwhile, 2008 Green candidate Jeannie Warnock has announced she won't be running again, but area Greens tell the Whig-Standard that they are talking to two possible candidates and believe they can have a nominee in place by September 15.
  
• Renfrew – Nipissing – Pembroke, ON - Toronto lawyer Christine Tabbert will be running for the Liberal nomination in this northeastern Ontario riding at a meeting scheduled for next week (exact date unknown, and not yet on the list at the Ontario federal Liberal party's website), according to the Renfrew 96.1 FM radio station's website. The riding is currently held by four-term Conservative M.P. Cheryl Gallant, who is also expected to run again.
  
• Peterborough, ON - 2008 Liberal candidate Betsy McGregor was acclaimed by about 100 Liberals, according to the Peterborough Examiner, to run once again in this eastern Ontario riding that has often served as an English-Canadian bellwether. McGregor will now be facing two-term Conservative M.P. Dean Del Mastro. NDP candidate Steve Sharpe has told the Examiner in the past that he also intends to run again. Del Mastro won the seat in 2006 after the retirement of former Liberal M.P. Peter Adams, and increased his vote share in 2008, drawing from the former Liberal vote and even more so from former NDP supporters. Both Del Mastro and McGregor spent the limit last time, while the NDP's campaign spending dropped from 72% in 2006 under candidate Linda Slavin to just 53% by Sharpe. No Green candidate has surfaced as yet.
  
• Don Valley West, ON - My apologies for not porting this nomination over earlier from my local copy of the database up to the online Pundits' Guide, as 2008 Green Party candidate Georgina Wilcock had been renominated in this riding by acclamation back on July 14, 2009, according to the Elections Canada database. As with Saint-Lambert above, a by-election was called in this riding north of Toronto, but was later superceded by the call of the 2008 general election. The riding was vacated by retiring Liberal M.P. John Godfrey, and held by his replacement, Liberal M.P. Rob Oliphant. 2008 Conservative candidate John Carmichael has also apparently been renominated, but I don't have the date yet or whether it was contested, and will have to redouble my efforts to get in touch and confirm those details in order to add him to the database as well. If anyone can tell me, please do get in touch.
• Thornhill, ON - Thanks to a follower on Twitter for passing along that Dr. Karen Mock will be seeking the Liberal nomination in this riding, now that former Liberal M.P. Susan Kadis has taken herself out of the running. The Liberal Scarf blog located a Facebook group for Dr. Mock's candidacy where we learned that she is the former executive director of the Canadian Race Relations Foundation. Kadis lost this riding north of Toronto to first-time Conservative M.P. Peter Kent in 2008. No word on the date of any scheduled nomination meeting as yet.
• St. Paul's, ON - The Liberal Scarf has also been reading Babble and reports that one of the unsuccessful challengers for the NDP nomination in the provincial by-election that's just been called, former BC Green Party Leader Stuart Parker, is now considering a federal run in the same seat instead. Parker hailed from the left-wing of the Greens and his 2000 ouster as leader after attempting negotiations with the provincial NDP saw him replaced by Adriane Carr (now Deputy Leader of the federal Green Party) who then cancelled those negotiations. St. Paul's is currently represented by long-time Liberal M.P. Carolyn Bennett who has claimed 50% of the vote or more since 1997. Area Greens have already nominated Debborah Donnelly.
  
• Niagara Falls, ON - There will be a contested Liberal nomination in this riding (date as yet unknown), reports the Niagara Falls Review, as lawyer Bev Hodgson has stepped forward to challenge 2008 Liberal candidate Joyce Morocco for the right to represent their party against five-term Conservative M.P. Rob Nicholson (two of those terms were from 1984-1993). Nicholson's vote share increased in 2008, mainly because the Liberal raw vote dropped by 6,000 votes while the NDP's raw vote also fell by roughly 3,000 causing turnout to decline steeply from 63.2% to 54.6%. Nicholson's vote slightly increased, as did that of Green candidate Shawn Willick who appears to be the named candidate in this riding again, according to the list on the party's website, and will be hosting Green Party leader Elizabeth May when she tours the area this weekend to promote the Greens and sign copies of her new book.
• Dufferin – Caledon, ON - Both the Caledon Citizen and Hill Times are confirming what we surmised here earlier, that Liberal nomination candidate Jeffrey May has withdrawn from the race, leaving former Conservative-turned-Liberal M.P. Garth Turner as the sole remaining candidate for now. No nomination meeting has been scheduled as yet. Turner will face off against his former caucus colleague, three-term Conservative M.P. David Tilson.
  
• Algoma – Manitoulin – Kapuskasing, ON - François Cloutier, a provincial public servant in the Ministry of Attorney-General and small business owner was the winner of the 4-way contested Liberal nomination this past weekend, according to the newly constructed Election Prediction Project page for this riding (also now reported in the Sudbury Star). The northern Ontario riding is currently represented by first-time NDP M.P. Carol Hughes, who is being visited, perhaps not uncoincidentally, by NDP Leader Jack Layton today. Hughes defeated former Liberal M.P. Brent St. Denis in 2008.
  
• Sudbury, ON - Lawyer Carol Hartman won the 4-way contested Liberal nomination meeting in this northern Ontario riding last night, according to the Sudbury Star this morning (thanks to a reader for reminding me), in advance of the weekend meeting of the national Liberal caucus and $550/plate fundraising dinner. Hartman's nomination means that Sudbury joins Stormont – Dundas – South Glengarry, ON in having a full slate of nominated candidates from all the major parties. Again perhaps not coincidentally, NDP Jack Layton visited the area yesterday to campaign with his MP's Glen Thibeault who won Sudbury away from former Liberal M.P. Diane Marleau in 2008, and Nickel Belt M.P. Claude Gravelle, who also claimed a Liberal seat on the retirement of former Liberal M.P. Ray Bonin.

OK, that's a wrap for now, but I have noticed several Green Party candidates on their website whose nomination dates and details I haven't confirmed yet, so I'll be following up there over the weekend. Apart from that, I can't believe I'm actually caught up ... yippee!

As alluded to above, the Election Prediction Project is now up and running for the 41st General Election (for now being called the "2009 Election" at that site), and its publisher Milton Chan has graciously offered to include links from its riding pages to the riding profile page at the Pundits' Guide. In turn, I have updated the EPP links from every 2003 Representation Order riding profile page to his new riding page as well, so that the quantitative and qualitative/subjective aspects of each riding are now well-covered and easily accessible from one another. Note that the EPP pages now include handy links to earlier predictions for the same riding, so the world of online political coverage is slowly getting more and more cross-referenced. Thanks to Milton for this offer.

If you have nomination news to share from your part of the country or home on the political spectrum, please drop us a line. And then follow along @punditsguide on Twitter for all the latest.

Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Bloc Québécois, Conservatives, Greens, Liberals, Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, NDP

You'll recall that, further to a motion adopted by the House on the Liberals' last Opposition Day motion in June, the Commons is scheduled to return on Monday, September 14, 2009.

In order to have a by-election held the previous Tuesday, September 8 (the day after Labour Day), it would have had to be called over the weekend.

So, it now seems clear that the three vacant seats won't be filled before Parliament returns, leading us to conclude that the Prime Minister may either be waiting to call them in such a way that the by-election campaigns are on-going during the next confidence vote, or that he is waiting for Hochelaga to become vacant on Wednesday September 16 and call all four at once.

Only New Westminster – Coquitlam, BC has all 4 major party candidates in place, the Liberals selecting theirs yesterday. Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, NS has its Conservative candidate, a Liberal contest under way, and presumably an NDP announcement designed to coincide with their convention down that way soon, plus the possibly that Green Party Leader Elizabeth May could yet enter the race. No-one is yet nominated in Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, QC. And only the NDP has its candidate in place in Hochelaga, QC (see forthcoming nomination news update).

Labels: Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, Hochelaga, Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, New Westminster – Coquitlam, Vacant Seats

Well, I just got a batch of other work out of the way, but boy the nomination news sure piles up in the meantime. Thank you so much to everyone who has written to pass various items along; it really does look like things are starting to heat up out there in spite of summer holidays (and the actual weather).

Let's start with candidates who were nominated in the past few days and some meetings that were recently scheduled, and then follow up with some some earlier nominations we may have missed, and some new candidate announcements.

• Calgary West, AB - Lawyer and 2008 candidate Jennifer Pollock won her party's nomination in Monday night's contest. Reader reports say the meeting was well-attended with 88 people voting, and that second-place finisher Ernie Corbett may yet surface as a Liberal candidate in a neighbouring riding. The riding is currently represented by long-time Conservative M.P. Rob Anders.
  
• Haldimand – Norfolk, ON - Former Liberal M.P. Bob Speller was renominated by acclamation as well Monday night in this southwestern Ontario riding, currently held by Conservative M.P. Diane Finley. Speller was first elected in 1988 and this will be his third contest against Finley. He sat out the 2008 election, which saw his Liberal replacement largely hold their vote share but Finley's vote drop 8 percentage points in favour of well-performing independent candidate Gary McHale who ran to raise the issue of the Caledonia land dispute between area residents and first nations. Last I read McHale was considering a second run, which could have some interesting and unpredictable effects on the riding's outcome. Speller is the 8th former Liberal M.P. to be nominated as a candidate for the current election.
  
• Compton – Stanstead, QC - As he was the only declared candidate, I'm assuming that 2008 Liberal candidate William Hogg was successfully renominated by acclamation at last night's meeting in this Eastern Townships riding in Québec, currently held by three-term Bloc Québécois M.P. France Bonsant.
  

Hogg's nomination kicked off a group of 9 further Québec Liberal nomination meetings set to unfold between now and the return of the Commons on September 14, which were announced on Tuesday as follows:

• Mon 27 Jul - Longueuil – Pierre-Boucher, QC
• Tue 28 Jul - Joliette, QC
• Wed 12 Aug - Argenteuil – Papineau – Mirabel, QC
• Wed 19 Aug - Jonquière – Alma, QC
• Thu 27 Aug - Lac-Saint-Louis, QC
• Thu 3 Sep - Gatineau, QC
• Sun 13 Sep - Pontiac, QC

I am currently trying to confirm three names passed along to me by a reader of Conservative candidates who may already have been nominated. If any other readers can help out by sending along links or clippings that would be appreciated:

• Eglinton – Lawrence, ON - This was the Conservatives' best riding in north Toronto in the last election, and 2008 candidate Joe Oliver has either been renominated already or looks to be keen to get the nomination at the very least. According to his recent tweets, he has been attending many community events, including some with Peter Kent and Jason Kenney, certainly looks to be keeping a candidate's schedule, and is saying on Twitter that Conservatives need MPs from Toronto in their three closest seats of last time. The riding is currently held by long-time Liberal M.P. Joe Volpe, however Oliver obtained 39.3% of the vote last time, coming within 4.7% of Volpe's vote share, and significantly outspending Volpe (nearly 100% of the spending limit vs. Volpe's 58%) in the process. It is unclear whether this former President of the Investment Dealers Association has been formally renominated just yet, but if any reader could clarify, it would be appreciated.
  
• Don Valley West, ON - One of the events Oliver was attending was a barbecue being organized by the 2008 Conservative in this neighbouring riding, the party's 2nd best riding in north Toronto last time out, John Carmichael. Again, a source tells me that Carmichael has been renominated, but I can't find any documentary evidence of that as yet, unless you count the barbecue with Peter Kent. This former chair of the Canadian Automobile Dealers' Association obtained 38.8% of the vote running against newly-elected Liberal by-election M.P. Rob Oliphant in 2008, and outspent him by a good margin as well (97% of the limit to Oliphant's 70%).
  
• Vancouver South, BC - A third Conservative candidate said to have been renominated from last time is Wai Young, who came within 20 votes (after a long and tortuous recount process) of defeating Liberal M.P. Ujjal Dosanjh in the 2nd closest race of the last election, having slightly outspent him as well (94% of the limit vs. 87%) Young had certainly indicated to Public Eye Online in May that she intended to run again somewhere, either federally or provincially, but again I can find no documentary evidence that she has actually been formally renominated here, so if anyone out there has further details I'd love to hear them.

In other nomination news, starting with the two vacant ridings:

• Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, NS - As expected, previous Liberal candidate Tracy Parsons has announced her intention to seek the Liberal nomination in this vacant Nova Scotia seat, which means a contest is on between Parsons and farmer Jim Burrows. This is the seat vacated by Independent M.P. Bill Casey in order to take a job representing the provincial government in Ottawa.
  
• Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, QC - Word from Radio-Canada about one of the vacant ridings, that the Mayor of La Pocatière, Bernard Généreux, is considering running for the Conservatives in any upcoming election, given that he is not planning to run for reelection municipally. Former Bloc Québécois M.P. Paul Crête was elected here in 2008, but stepped down to make an unsuccessful provincial bid in Rivière-du-Loup provincially for the Bloc's sister party, the Parti Québécois, in the spring.
  
• Pontiac, QC - As mentioned above, the contested Liberal nomination meeting has now been scheduled for Sunday, September 13, and a commenter here runs down the latest handicapping of the race from an insider's perspective here. Running are former Liberal Party national director Greg Fergus, former Liberal M.P. Robert Bertrand, and former 2008 Liberal candidate Cindy Duncan McMillan. The riding is currently held by two-term Conservative M.P. Lawrence Cannon, and is rated as meeting the criteria for a close three-way and four-way race, although Cannon also increased his margin from 5.0% to 8.5% between 2006 and 2008. I can't comment on the spending, as Ms. Duncan McMillan's return is not yet posted on the Elections Canada website.
  
• Ottawa Centre, ON - A reader writes to pass along that Janet Yale now seems fairly certain to contest the Liberal nomination here, against Scott Bradley who is all but in and has a website set up here. Yale, you'll recall, was said to be considering a run against former M.P. David Pratt in neighbouring Ottawa West – Nepean, ON but publicly removed her name from consideration. The riding is currently represented by two-term NDP M.P. Paul Dewar.
  
• Toronto Centre, ON - The NDP may have a nomination contest shaping up in this riding, as 2008 Willowdale candidate and a former director of the Canadian Actors' Equity, Susan Wallace, has announced a bid for the nomination there. My sources say that two-time former NDP candidate, and the recently-elected Grand Marshall of the Toronto Pride Parade, muslim lawyer El-Farouk Khaki, is also hoping to run again. [UPDATE: Per his comment below, Mr. Khaki is in fact not planning a run again this time.] No date for the meeting has been set as yet. This is the riding won by Liberal leadership candidate and former NDP MP and Premier, Bob Rae in the March 2008 by-elections. After seeing higher spending levels during the by-election, the general election was a more muted affair, with Rae spending just 54% of the limit but his rivals spending barely half of that. Already nominated in this riding are new Conservative candidate Kevin Moore (not Keith, thanks to a reader for the correction), and former Green Party candidate Ellen Michelson.
  
• Parry Sound – Muskoka, ON - Computer consultant Doug Banwell has announced he will be running for the Liberal nomination in this central Ontario riding, currently held by two-term Conservative M.P. Tony Clement, reports ParrySound.com. No date has been set for the nomination meeting as yet, although the riding association has asked for one to be set, and expects it for late August. After earning the ranking of the closest riding of the 2006 election when Clement won by just 28 votes, he went on to earn over 50% of the vote here last time.

OK, that's a wrap for now. If you have any nomination news to pass along for the next update, please drop me a line here. Then you can follow all the latest @punditsguide on Twitter.

Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Conservatives, Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, Liberals, Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, NDP

Elections Canada announced this afternoon that it had received official notification today of Paul Crête's resignation yesterday and the resulting vacancy in his Québec riding of Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, QC.

The procedure involved was quite interesting actually, because apparently Commons Speaker Peter Milliken is out of town, and obviously Crête needed to resign quickly in order to run in the provincial Rivière-du-Loup by-election that was just called, so two Members of the House of Commons had to sign the warrant instead of Milliken in order for it to be sent to the Chief Electoral Officer. I wonder who they were.

Since the warrant was received today, we can now calculate the relevant dates for all three vacant ridings as follows. I plan to shorten this riding name to MIKR in certain situations, as I have already done with CCMV for Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, NS and NWC for New Westminster – Coquitlam, BC.

	MIKR	CCMV	NWC
Date of resignation:	Thu May 21, 2009	Thu Apr 30, 2009	Mon Apr 13, 2009
Date Speaker's warrant received by CEO:	Fri May 22, 2009	Mon May 4, 2009	Thu Apr 16, 2009
Earliest date the by-election could be called (11 days later):	Tue June 2, 2009	Fri May 15, 2009	Mon Apr 27, 2009
Earliest date the by-election could be held (first Monday at least 36 days after that):	Mon Jul 13, 2009	Mon Jun 22, 2009	Mon Jun 8, 2009
Latest date the by-election could be called (180 days later):	Wed Nov 18, 2009	Sat Oct 31, 2009	Tue Oct 13, 2009
Latest date the by-election could be held (first Monday at least 36 - [no maximum] days later, or the next non-Statuatory holiday):	on or after Tue Dec 29, 2009	on or after Mon Dec 7, 2009	on or after Mon Nov 23, 2009

So looking across the three ridings, the earliest they could all be called together is Tuesday June 2 for Monday July 13, and the latest they could all be called together is Tuesday October 13 for Monday November 23, 2009.

As a commenter to my previous post pointed out, the Nova Scotia provincial election and Québec provincial by-election now underway effectively rule out any by-election calls for June dates. Also, the Québec-wide municipal elections are being held this November 1, with a 45-day campaign period.

Thus I'm sticking with my earlier guess of a Monday August 3 call for Tuesday September 8, or a Monday August 10 call for Monday September 14 (the House reconvenes on Monday September 21).

Catching up on nomination news for the ridings, there are a couple of items to report:

• New Westminster – Coquitlam, BC - The local Green Party electoral district association (EDA) has called their annual general meeting for Monday June 15 to make plans for their candidate search and a summer nomination meeting.
• New Westminster – Coquitlam, BC -Public Eye Online is also reporting a possible new entrant into the race, Coquitlam city councillor and Rivershed Society Executive Director Fin Donnelly. Curiously, though, his party affiliation is not mentioned. Donnelly did tell Public Eye Online that he is planning an announcement next week, and confirmed that he would not be running for the Liberals in the riding. His municipal election website from last November uses the colour green, but also features an endorsement from former provincial NDP cabinet minister and Coquitlam MLA John Cashore (Harvey's dad, for those following the Oliphant Commission). And a commenter on Babble believes that Donnelly will in fact be running for the NDP nomination. If so, he would be joining fellow Coquitlam city councillor Barry Lynch, and possibly New Westminster city councillor Lorrie Williams and health sector administrator Zoe Royer who ran next door federally in 2008 in the riding of Port Moody – Westwood – Port Coquitlam, BC, as previously reported here. No nomination meeting date has been set as yet.
  

If you know of nomination news in any of the by-election ridings, do get in touch and pass it along.

Labels: Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, New Westminster – Coquitlam, Vacant Seats

Hi folks, back from the Big Apple, and while I have a few items I'll be catching up on here in the next day or so, there are a few points to note quickly on the status of vacant seats.

First, Québec Premier Jean Charest called two provincial by-elections yesterday. Given that federal Bloc Québécois M.P. Paul Crête was nominated earlier this month as the Parti Québécois candidate for the Rivière-du-Loup by-election, his federal riding of Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, QC is set to become vacant very soon. Some early babble and at least one media pundit are already speculating on the possibility that Mario Dumont, having vacated his provincial seat, might be a contender for the federal Conservative nomination there. [UPDATE: I gather he was spotted at Prime Minister's Montreal fundraiser last night, for whatever that tells us.]

Second, unless you believe that Monday June 29 is a likely day for a federal by-election call (it sounds a bit late in the school year to me), we've now passed the last date on which the two outstanding federal by-elections could be called for Monday June 22 (i.e., they had to have been called by last Friday May 15 to occur on June 22) and therefore it is unlikely that those two seats will be filled before the fall, by which point Crête's vacant seat would be added to the list.

So, there will be one NDP, one Independent Conservative, and one Bloc seat up for grabs in the next round of by-elections whenever they're called. By-elections held on the Tuesday after Labour Day (September 8) would have to be called by the Civic Holiday in Ontario (Monday, August 3), or by-elections held on Monday September 14 (the last available date before the House is scheduled to return on Monday September 21) would have to be called by Monday August 10.

Stories to watch for in this round of by-elections include:

• whether former provincial ADQ leader Mario Dumont runs federally in Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, QC
• whether and where Green Party leader Elizabeth May runs, and
• whether former Conservative M.P. Paul Forseth is allowed to try for a comeback in New Westminster – Coquitlam, BC or whether his party tries to install a "star" candidate as he fears (and if so would it be former Vancouver South, BC Conservative candidate Wai Young, who may have made a very vague hint to that effect to Public Eye Online). The 2008 Conservative candidate in New Westminster – Coquitlam, BC, Yonah Martin, has since been appointed to the Senate. Young came within 20 votes of unseating Vancouver South Liberal M.P. Ujjal Dosanjh in the 2008 election.

So far, the NDP appears to have a contested nomination on their hands in New Westminster – Coquitlam, BC, the Conservatives and Liberals both have candidates actively seeking their parties' nominations in Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, NS, and as mentioned above Paul Forseth would like to return to Ottawa as well.

If you hear of nomination news in any of these prospective by-election seats, or anywhere else, please drop me a line to pass it along. Next I'll be posting a reprint of Part II of my Hill Times series on Candidate Election Spending with Bill Stanbury from last week, and then catching up on all the nomination news during my time away.

Labels: Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, New Westminster – Coquitlam, Vacant Seats

A couple of developments to report on one vacant seat, and one that's about to become vacant.

First, in the seat that is vacant, the Chief Electoral Officer announced today that he received the Speaker's warrant declaring Bill Casey's seat vacant yesterday. Thus, we can recalculate the exact dates affecting the calling of a by-election in Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, NS (and compare with those for New Westminster – Coquitlam, BC):

	CCMV	NWC
Date of resignation:	Thu Apr 30, 2009	Mon Apr 13, 2009
Date Speaker's warrant received by CEO:	Mon May 4, 2009	Thu Apr 16, 2009
Earliest date the by-election could be called (11 days later):	Fri May 15, 2009	Mon Apr 27, 2009
Earliest date the by-election could be held (first Monday at least 36 days after that):	Mon Jun 22, 2009	Mon Jun 8, 2009
Latest date the by-election could be called (180 days later):	Sat Oct 31, 2009	Tue Oct 13, 2009
Latest date the by-election could be held (first Monday at least 36 - [no maximum] days later):	on or after Mon Dec 7, 2009	on or after Mon Nov 23, 2009

Next, Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, QC Bloc Québécois M.P. Paul Crête was nominated this past Sunday as the Parti Québécois candidate for the forthcoming provincial by-election in Rivière-du-Loup, the seat recently vacated by former ADQ leader Mario Dumont. Crête hasn't resigned his Commons seat as yet, but the provincial by-election is not expected until June, so he has a bit of time yet.

Labels: Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, New Westminster – Coquitlam, Vacant Seats