I don't know why it is, but any time a news story appears about an election that hasn't occurred yet, the reporter wants to report who will win it, or who is "expected to" win, or "favoured to" win ... and they write it as news.

This has always struck me as really presumptuous when citizens haven't actually had a chance to vote yet (almost antidemocratic, even). I mean if they want to endorse a candidate, fine: write an editorial. If they want to make a prediction, do that in a column. But it drives me crazy when a story says that party XXX is expected to win. Particularly when it's clear the reporter hasn't done much of any research visiting or phoning into the actual riding ... such as this Québec reporter who claims to know the outcome of the Nova Scotia race:

"[E]n Nouvelle-Écosse, dans Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley, les conservateurs semblent bien placés pour reprendre la circonscription détenue par l'indépendant Bill Casey (69 % du vote en 2008)..." -- Guillaume Bourgault-Côté in Le Devoir

... or where they're basing their call on nothing more than previous election results (a longstanding bug-a-boo of mine). This last practice can be particularly unreliable in a by-election, which by definition has no incumbents, and thus can't be compared to the previous result which usually did.

However, I realize I'm not going to win this war. The news organizations are going to keep writing these stories that way, because they want to get ahead of the news, or not miss out on something that "everyone else has".

So instead, I'm just going to document those calls today, and we'll rate the pundits afterwards. If I've missed any pundit predictions or news stories that claim to be reporting as fact the outcome of any of Monday's by-elections, please add them in the comments. Also included are news stories that wrote it straight up without writing predictions as facts.

UPDATE: I've added Chantal Hébert from l'Actualité and Susan Delacourt from the Toronto Star this morning.

FURTHER UPDATE: Craig Oliver made his own prediction for CCMV during the journalists' panel at the end of the show. Thanks to a reader for helping to clear up the confusion.

Journo/Pundit	News Org	Date	NWC	'Chlag	MIKR	CCMV
L. Ian MacDonald	National Post	Nov 6	NDP	BQ	(1.)	Cons
Janyce McGregor	CBC.ca Inside Politics	Nov 6	(2.)
Nick Gamache	CBC.ca Inside Politics	Nov 6			(3.)
Stephen Puddicombe	CBC.ca Inside Politics	Nov 6				(4.)
Doug Ward	Vancouver Sun	Nov 6	(5.)
Joël-Denis Bellavance	La Presse	Nov 7	NDP	BQ	BQ	Cons
Guillaume Bourgault-Côté	Le Devoir	Nov 7	--	BQ	(6.)	Cons
No byline	Radio-Canada.ca	Nov 7			(7.)
No byline	Radio-Canada.ca	Nov 8		(8.)
Canadian Election Watch	blog	Nov 8	NDP	BQ	BQ	Cons
No byline	Canwest News Service	Nov 8	(9.)	BQ	Cons	Cons
No byline	CBC.ca	Nov 8	NDP	BQ	BQ	Cons
Joan Bryden (10.)	CP	Nov 8	NDP	BQ	BQ	Cons
Nelson Wiseman	CTV.ca	Nov 8	(11.)
Ian Munroe	CTV.ca	Nov 8	(12.)	BQ	BQ	Cons
Craig Oliver	Question Period	Nov 8	NDP	BQ	--	Cons NDP
Jean Lapierre (QC only)	Question Period	Nov 8		BQ	BQ
Christy Clark (BC only)	Question Period	Nov 8	NDP
Dan Leger (NS only)	Question Period	Nov 8				(13.)
Althia Raj	Sun Media	Nov 8	(14.)
Philip Authier	Montreal Gazette	Nov 8		(15.)	(16.)
ElectionPrediction.org	blog	Nov 8	NDP	BQ	BQ	Cons
Chantal Hébert	l'Actualité	Nov 9	(17.)	BQ	BQ	(18.)
Susan Delacourt	Toronto Star	Nov 9	(19.)

1. "This is an extremely tight race, too close to call, between the Bloc’s Nancy Gagnon and the Conservatives’ Bernard Généreux. Radio-Canada is calling it 'the Battle of the Lower St. Lawrence'."
2. "I was particularly interested in his belief that the Rivière du Loup riding is too close to call -- I'm not sure that's expected, given that the Bloc won by a double-digit margin in this riding just one year ago....It *should* be safe Conservative turf, but a cruise through the data from the last provincial election suggests the NDP will have a much better showing than they did in Casey's day....Hochelaga should be safe east-end Montreal turf for the Blocquistes, and wouldn't be all that interesting if the BQ candidate hadn't had a bit of a kerfuffle over his nomination, and didn't use to be an advisor to Stephen Harper's Conservative government. But both are true....But the race expected to be the closest -- based on the margin of victory in the last election -- is New Westminster-Coquitlam."
3. "If the race is between the Bloc and the Conservatives, where are the Liberals? According to many here, they're in trouble. Their local organization is largely non-existent and their candidate reportedly entered the race reluctantly. I ended up spending more time than expected in Rivière-du-Loup, a good chunk of it at a garage. A fellow client asked if I was voting for Généreux or that woman from the Bloc. I said I wasn't going to vote on Monday. He said: "Me neither, I'm tired of all those elections'."
   
4. "During this by-election campaign you can't have a conversation without someone mentioning Bill Casey. A local debate this week in Truro was dominated by Casey and his ideals and legacy. I was talking with a couple of dairy farmers about the contest. They both said the choice is simple. Whichever candidate is most like Bill Casey is the person they'll vote for. They didn't care if electing a Conservative gets them closer to those infrastructure cheques with the party logo on them. They didn't care about their candidate making it into cabinet. They just want someone to stick up for them. Someone who will put the region's interests ahead of a political career."
   
5. "New Westminster-Coquitlam is a swing constituency that has produced razor-thin finishes between the NDP and the Conservatives over the past three elections with the NDP winning the last two."
   
6. "Le Bloc québécois perdra-t-il un de ses bastions lors de l'élection partielle de lundi dans Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Rivière-du-Loup (MLKRDL)? Les conservateurs le souhaitent et l'affirment, mais la lutte s'annonce très serrée."
7. "À quatre jours des élections partielles fédérales dans Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Rivière-du-Loup, le Bloc québécois et les conservateurs jouent leur va-tout. Bien que la circonscription soit aux mains des bloquistes depuis 16 ans, les conservateurs et leur candidat, l'ex-maire de La Pocatière Bernard Généreux, croient pouvoir créer la surprise."
8. "Le Bloc québécois et le Nouveau Parti démocratique (NPD) se livrent une dure lutte en prévision de l'élection partielle fédérale de lundi dans Hochelaga."
   
9. "The B.C. riding of New Westminster-Coquitlam has shaped up to be a battleground between the Conservatives' Diana Dilworth and the NDP's Fin Donnelly."
10. "The contests will most likely amount to a confirmation of the status quo, with the Bloc Quebecois hanging on to two ridings in Quebec, New Democrats holding on to another in British Columbia and the Tories reclaiming a Nova Scotia riding that had been a longtime stronghold until Bill Casey, a former Conservative MP, captured it as an independent in 2008. But all four races are sufficiently tight that they could conceivably produce upset victories for the Conservatives and the NDP."
11. "None of the ridings are particularly representative of the country's political landscape, University of Toronto professor Nelson Wiseman told CTV.ca, and voting rates are usually lower outside of general elections. But the results could still shed light on how Canadians feel about how their political parties are performing."
    
12. "The Conservatives won the riding in 2004 but the NDP has held it since then, and the race is expected to be close."
13. He said it would be "down to organization and coattails".
14. "Canadians in four federal ridings head to the polls Monday to cast their ballots in hotly contested byelections."
15. "The Conservatives believe the riding is ripe for change. In the 2008 federal election, the Bloc’s share of the vote slipped from 52 per cent to 46 per cent while the Conservatives crept up to 30 per cent. Add to the mix Généreux, a popular local mayor, and they think they have a chance."
16. "The campaign in Hochelaga has turned into a Bloc-NDP fight to the finish with the NDP turning on the pressure in the belief Hochelaga is ready to flip over to them in much the same way Outremont did."
17. "Le NPD a repris ce siège aux conservateurs l’an dernier et ces derniers voudraient bien le récupérer. Les néo-démocrates ont fait campagne contre l’instauration prochaine d’une taxe de vente harmonisée en Colombie-Britannique. S’ils perdent le comté, ils devront se demander si l’idée de faire payer le prix politique d’une mesure provinciale par le gouvernement d’Ottawa est un pétard mouillé."
18. "Comté bleu où le député conservateur Bill Casey avait été réélu comme indépendant l’automne dernier, après avoir quitté le parti de Stephen Harper pour protester contre la formule de péréquation imposée par le gouvernement. Le NPD, qui vient de s’installer au pouvoir en Nouvelle-Écosse, compte sur l’élan de cette victoire historique pour chauffer les conservateurs aujourd’hui."
19. "The New Democrats and Bloc Québécois have high hopes, while the Conservatives and Liberals are playing down any expectations of seat gains in four by-elections on Monday in Nova Scotia, Quebec and British Columbia....[I]t's possible the Liberals will not place first or even second in any of the by-elections, in what will be sure to be portrayed by opponents as another sign of the shaky state of Ignatieff's leadership."

Note that people were most likely to call Hochelaga, QC for the Bloc, and least likely to call New Westminster – Coquitlam, BC for anyone (although the lone British Columbian, Christy Clark, predicted a likely NDP win). Only Canwest News Service (no byline that I could find anywhere for that story) called Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, QC for the Conservatives. Everyone was ready to call Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, NS for the Conservatives, except the resident Nova Scotians Dan Leger and Steve Puddicombe.

The Globe and Mail used Joan Bryden's story from CP on Sunday, while the Toronto Star has not written about the by-elections at all this weekend that I've noticed, (they have now).

Labels: Media Coverage, Nov 9 2009 By-elections

This morning's Hill Times has a lengthy piece by Harris MacLeod on the forthcoming election and ridings to watch at this early stage, including a list compiled in part by yours truly.

I appreciate the publicity and opportunity to provide information to the Hill Times, but just wanted to clarify that the list in the paper *includes* ridings provided by me, and that there was some editorializing going on by them in some of the list's comments as well. Specifically:

• While I might agree that Brampton – Springdale, ON should be on the list because the Conservatives nominated there very early, I did not write the comments about it or its incumbent M.P. (and in general I do not even like "xx-gate" terms).
• Moreover, Oakville, ON is a riding to watch, but I would have described it as a 1993 Liberal pickup of a previously Conservative seat at a time when the conservative parties split, rather than a "long-time" Liberal riding. Former Liberal M.P. Bonnie Brown won the seat in 1993, but it was previously held for 4 terms by Conservative M.P. Otto Jelinek. On the other hand, this is just the kind of seat whose fate will be interesting to watch going forward.
  

The riding list only appears in the printed edition, but as before I will be asking for permission to reprint it here, along with a table I prepared for last week's story on the battle in Québec, called "Québec by the Numbers (2008 General Election)".

Sorry to be so picky, but I really try to take care about the kinds of remarks I make, in order to keep this site a neutral place that's useful for everyone. Otherwise, keep up the great work, Hill Times, and from someone who read you from the beginning: Happy 20th Anniversary this October!

Labels: Hill Times, Media Coverage