Time to pass along a few accumulated developments in party apparatus news from here and there:

• Liberal Party - As a result of their posting which ended on January 6, the Liberal Party has hired a new National Director, Ian McKay from B.C., who will be starting in early March, when he's to "continue the modernization of our Party's communication and technological infrastructure and give him the tools to drive our membership engagement process," according to party president Alf Apps' letter to the membership. A financial services consultant, McKay ran in the 2000 general election in West Vancouver – Sunshine Coast, BC. Next on their agenda is the hiring of a new President for the National Liberal Fund: in effect the party's new chief fundraiser.
  
• Conservative Party - A re-organization of the party's Quebec office was first reported by Le Devoir at the end of January, and followed up on by L. Ian MacDonald's weekend column for the Montreal Gazette. The changes appear to have been set in motion when director-general Claude Durand decided late in the year to step down and take care of her son's health concerns. Her resignation took effect at the end of January, by which point she had reportedly identified some 60 candidates in the 75 Quebec ridings (not all of whom have been nominated or announced, apparently). It was revealed this past weekend that in fact the party is now closing its Montreal office, and opening one in Québec City instead, to be run by one of the successful organizers in the recent by-election in Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, Ghislain Maltais, who is also a former provincial Liberal MNA. Maltais will be backed up by Joseph Soares, based out of party headquarters in Ottawa, who was also a part of the by-election campaign team, MacDonald reports.
  
  Meanwhile, new party president John Walsh had the recent task of taking control of the Calgary West, AB Conservative riding association (aka EDA or electoral district association), which had been planning to conduct a referendum requesting an open nomination meeting at its upcoming annual general meeting, even though incumbent M.P. Rob Anders was already renominated last May along with the rest of his caucus. Kevin Libin ran down the inside story in a blogpost for the National Post's online "Full Comment" website, which reports a lot of perspective I had not read before.
  
• Green Party - There have simply not been enough hours in the day to keep on top of every twist and turn in the on-going debate about when and how to elect, re-elect, review or reconstitute the leadership of the Green Party and repair its finances, although party activists have been pouring themselves into debating the issues at great length in the comment sections of a number of different Green blogs, including DaveBagler.ca, Not an Official Green Party Canada Site (NAOGPCS), the democraticSpace.com blog, and of course Report on Greens. I'm unaware whether there has been any final resolution on the leadership convention question. In addition, the party's Revenue Sharing Agreement, whereby the national party distributes a third of its quarterly public subsidy to the EDAs, is also being questioned in light of its current debt situation.
  
  The big news, at least to me, is that there is a third potential leadership candidate on the horizon -- a woman -- who has been meeting people at private dinners, but has not yet announced her campaign. I've made several attempts to find out who it is, but no luck as yet. Apparently a communications plan is in place regarding the timing of the announcement, and the trigger may yet not be pulled. However, she appears to be supported by the BlueGreenBlogger at NAOGPCS, who teased her candidacy at the end of a recent blogpost. The woman, whoever she is, would be joining former federal and Ontario party leader Frank de Jong, and presumably Elizabeth May herself. As the party's constitution is currently written, May's fixed four-year term ends at some point in 2010.
  
• Bloc Québécois - In a reply to a recent blogpost on the partes' quarterly contributions by Chantal Hébert at l'Actualité, the directeur-general of the Bloc Québécois confirmed that their party's approach to fundraising is to favour the constituency associations as well. Gilbert Gardner pointed to 2008 numbers showing that the Bloc raised over $800K through its constituency associations, as compared with some $700K by the party headquarters, and suggested that the 2009 reports from their EDAs which are due this May would show a similar pattern.
  
• New Democrats - The first initiative springing from the NDP's recent Federal Council meeting to plan its strategy leading up to the next election has emerged, and it's focussed on riding fundraising as well. A Facebook group has just popped up for the "Local Victories Challenge", which according to NDP blogger The Jurist at Accidental Deliberations, is designed to make a central investment into riding associations, to help them build their local fundraising infrastructure. We've reported before that party national director Brad Lavigne and leader Jack Layton have been citing statistics about the performance of their candidates who are able to spend close to the spending limit, so it appears this initiative stems from that analysis. After the party's decision in the last election to put in place the financing necessary to spend the national limit (they wound up spending around 84% of the limit in the end), this time according to the promotional material for the Local Victories Challenge they're hoping to finally raise candidate spending up from the 20-25% or so of the limit across the board where it's stayed for the past 5 elections. You'll recall that Professor Bill Stanbury and I studied candidate spending in a two-part series last spring, in which we found that this 20-25% was in fact concentrated into a number of ridings that the party had targetted, and was highly correlated with the percent of the vote NDP candidates obtained.

Tomorrow: some new functionality for the Pundits' Guide database, and the importance of examining candidates' share of the electorate in order to understand vote switching.

Labels: Bloc Québécois, Conservatives, Greens, Liberals, NDP, Party Finance

OK, who's up for a bit of nomination news? There are a few items that have piled up, and some of them are quite interesting; starting with:

• St. John's South – Mount Pearl, NL - A Memorial University prof reports in his blog, Tickling Bight, this week that well-known Conservative television pundit Tim Powers is "rumoured to be sizing up a run" in this riding, currently held by first-term Liberal M.P. Siobhan Coady. Although based in Ottawa, Powers has also maintained good relations with the Newfoundland & Labrador government, even serving as an unofficial spokesperson for Premier Danny Williams when questions were first raised about his seeking medical treatment outside the country. In the wake of the "ABC (Anyone but Conservative) Campaign" run by the Premier during the last federal election campaign, a thawing of relations between the two conservative parties would be a precondition for federal Conservatives to become electorally competitive in the province again, and Powers undoubtedly played a backroom role recently in smoothing the way for the Prime Minister to visit the Premier in St. John's just days before Williams left for his surgery. As the blogger also notes, his entry could also open up the very close two-way race (2.8% of the vote, or 5.1 votes per poll) this riding saw in 2008 between Liberal victor Coady, and the NDP's Ryan Cleary, who has already been renominated for a second run at the seat. Taking a closer look at the riding map, I see that the boundaries have changed from the way I remember the St. John's West of old: it now takes in the part of downtown around the harbour (including Water and Duckworth streets) up to and including Quidi Vidi village, and has lost much of the southern part of the Avalon peninsula (basically everything south of Petty Harbour) to neighbouring Avalon riding. So, will he run? @powerstim himself is telling his tweeps entertainingly that "no moving boxes will be required", but of course that could still mean pretty much anything.
• St. John's East, NL - Staying in St. John's, the same blogger passes along news apparently originating with the CBC's Dave Cochrane (no link available) that former provincial Cancer Society director Peter Dawe "is considering" a run for the Liberals against the NDP's Jack Harris in this riding. Dawe headed the Cancer Society as the case of the inaccurate breast cancer tests became known and was being investigated, but he stepped down in the middle of last September to "seek other work". The timing of Mr. Dawe's resignation, not long after Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff's announcement in Sudbury last September that he would try to bring the government down, leads the blogger to believe that Dawe has been considering the run for some time. Harris commanded a 74.6% share of the vote last time, with Liberal candidate Walter Noel placing a distant second at 12.6%.
• Saskatoon – Humboldt, SK - Further west, a former M.P. today announced another run as an Independent candidate to try and regain his old riding. Jim Pankiw was elected as a Reform M.P. in 1997, serving two terms, and finally losing his seat while running as an independent in 2004. Three-term Conservative M.P. Brad Trost won the resulting four-way race in 2004 with just 26.7% of the vote, but has since increased his vote share to 49.1% in 2006 and 53.8% in 2008, with the Liberal vote declining, and the NDP moving firmly into second place. New Democrats are already revising the riding's priority upwards in light of Pankiw's return, a reader writes to confirm, and have had their candidate, health policy consultant Denise Kouri, in place since early last fall. The riding is home to the University of Saskatchewan, and encompasses the northeast part of Saskatoon and the rural areas further northeast, including Humboldt, Domremy, some farmland and a number of first nations' reserve communities.

Next time, some updates from B.C., and a round-up of a few more candidates who have stepped down.

Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Conservatives, Independent Candidates, Liberals

I would like to thank the legal counsel for the Liberal Party for spending some time with me the other day to clarify the situation with Liberal incumbent nominations. Up until now I'd been unable to understand the process, and specifically why it was that if incumbents were supposedly automatically renominated, they were still having nomination meetings (albeit uncontested ones). The situation was even more confusing in light of information I'd been given that members still *had* to have such meetings, but not, according to another source, in every province.

The most common answer I was getting was that "it's complicated", but never with the paperwork or background to explain why. Until this week. Hip hip hooray. This means I can add the incumbent Liberal M.P.s to the database with an effective date of June 1, 2009, except for those who proceed(ed) to a meeting, whose nomination dates will be changed to/kept as the date of the meeting. Which means the red bar is headed up!

Here are the relevant sections of the document called "National Rules for the Selection of Candidates for the Liberal Party of Canada" (warning: PDF). It was adopted on May 8, 2009 at the party's Vancouver convention, although there have since been some other amendments that are not relevant to this purpose, which is why the cover page says it's dated August 20, 2009. [Emphasis below is mine]

Excerpts from Liberal Party Nomination Rules, adopted May 8, 2009

2.1 Subject to Rule 11.4 and/or any ruling of the Permanent Appeal Committee, the Candidate for an Electoral District shall be the Qualified Nomination Contestant who is acclaimed or chosen from the Qualified Nomination Contestants for that Electoral District by a vote of Eligible Voting Members of the Electoral District Association at a Meeting held in accordance with these Rules and with the applicable Provincial or Territorial Rules, provided, however, that, if the Leader declares in writing that it will not be his or her intention to endorse such person pursuant to sections 67(4)(c) and 68 of the Act, such person ceases, forthwith, to be the Candidate.

2.2 No Meeting shall be called in any province or territory until consent thereto is given to the Provincial or Territorial Campaign Chair by the National Campaign Chair.

2.3 No Meeting shall be held in any Electoral District except in accordance with the Call of such meeting (substantially in Form 7), as provided to the president of an Electoral District Association by the relevant Provincial or Territorial Campaign Chair.

2.4 No Call of a Meeting shall be issued under Rule 2.3 until:

1. the Electoral District Association criteria set out in Rule 3 have been met;
2. the Nomination Contestant search criteria set out in Rule 4 have been met; and
3. one or more Qualified Nomination Contestant(s) have been determined through the Green Light Process to have met the Nomination Contestant approval criteria set out in Rule 5; except where the Provincial or Territorial Campaign Chair has waived or varied any of the foregoing in respect of any one or more Electoral District Associations.

2.5 In the event that a Meeting is to be held between the date that a draft representation order under the Electoral Boundaries Readjustment Act is proclaimed and the date upon which it comes into force, the Provincial or Territorial Campaign Chair shall determine whether the Meeting is to be conducted using the previously-existing boundaries or the new boundaries. Where an Electoral District Association has been founded based upon the new boundaries, and a by-election is to be held, the Provincial or Territorial Campaign Chair may make any necessary or appropriate directions, in order to ensure equitable treatment of persons who were members of the former Electoral District Association but who are not members of the new Electoral District Association.

3.1 Except where the Provincial or Territorial Campaign Chair, in consultation with the National Campaign Chair, has waived or varied any of the criteria set out below, in respect of any Electoral District Association, no Call of a Meeting shall be issued under Rule 2.3 until the following criteria respecting the Electoral District Association have been met:

1. the Electoral District Association has been registered by the Chief Electoral Officer of Canada in accordance with the Act, or, in the event that the Electoral District Association has been or becomes deregistered, appropriate measures have been taken so as to permit the proper conduct of the Meeting in accordance with the Act, in the absence of a registered Electoral District Association;
2. where boundaries of an Electoral District have been altered by redistribution between Elections, all assets, liabilities and other matters pertaining to the Electoral District Associations of the relevant pre-existing Electoral Districts must be settled to the satisfaction of the relevant Provincial or Territorial Campaign Chair;
3. the Electoral District Association has met the Minimum Membership Threshold;
4. the Electoral District Association has met any requirement for fundraising or organizing as required by the Provincial or Territorial Rules.

3.2 Notwithstanding Rule 3.1, where the Electoral District is represented in the House of Commons by a member of the National Liberal Caucus, the National Campaign Co-Chairs may, if the “Incumbent Requirements” set out below have been met prior to June 1, 2009, either deem the Meeting for that EDA to have been held and declare the Liberal Caucus member to be the Candidate, or direct that a Meeting be held in respect of which the Liberal Caucus member is the only Qualified Nomination Contestant. In such cases, Rule 4 shall not apply. The Incumbent Requirements are as follows:

1. The Electoral District Association must, at minimum, have the lesser of:
1. 400 EDA members; or
2. a number of EDA members equivalent to two per cent of the Liberal vote in the last federal Election.
2. The Electoral District Association must, further, have a number of Victory Fund members equivalent to ten per cent of the number of EDA members required pursuant to subparagraph 3.2(a). In calculating the number of Victory Fund members for this purpose, a Laurier Club member shall be counted as equal to 5 Victory Fund members.
3. The Liberal Caucus member shall have complied, and shall continue to comply with Rule 5 (Nomination Contestant Approval Criteria) in all applicable respects.

4.1 Except where the Provincial or Territorial Campaign Chair has waived or varied any of the criteria set out below in respect of any Electoral District Association, no Call of a Meeting shall be issued under Rule 2.3 until one of the following criteria respecting Nomination Contestant Search has been met:

1. the Electoral District Association can demonstrate to the satisfaction of the Provincial or Territorial Campaign Chair that the association has conducted an acceptable search for Nomination Contestants, including careful consideration of potential candidates who are female and who are reflective of the demographic makeup of the local electorate; or
2. the Provincial or Territorial Campaign Committee has either conducted such a search on its own behalf, or has determined that no such search is necessary under all of the circumstances. Such circumstances may include, but are not limited to the fact that the Electoral District is presently represented by a Liberal incumbent who has indicated an intention to seek re-election.

So, the rules offer a choice: the co-chairs can *either* deem the meeting to have been held *or* direct that it be held uncontested. The process was designed so that the M.P.s would have locked up the nomination through the adoption of the rule, and yet have the ability to hold a nomination event that was genuine if they so chose, as it was explained to me. For more details on the rules and process, consult the full document as linked to above.

There's one caveat: as June 1, 2009 approached, two M.P.s had not met the requirements in 3.2(a). My information is that one of those two may have even met them in the final hours. Regardless, both have since been nominated at meetings, so it's moot. Historians can take it up with party officials down the road if they need to know who they were, but no-one's talking for now. For my part, I'm satisfied that I now have the correct nomination type and date for each M.P. and that's good enough for our purposes here.

So, the 64 remaining incumbent Liberal M.P.s have now been added as confirmed candidates for the 41st General Election, for a new total of 192 (or 62% of a full slate). This also drops their count of nominated women candidates from 35.2% to 32.3%, since just 25% of their current caucus is female.

Again, thanks to the official in question for helping me ensure I've recorded things properly. It's quite a relief for me to have this all straightened out.

Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Liberals

For those who were at work this afternoon behind firewalls, and couldn't reach the Liberal Leader's Facebook page to join in the online townhall meeting, the transcript is still up and available through an archived CoverItLive.com session here.

The Facebook posts that linked to the CoverItLive.com session can be found here (english version) and here (french version); they have some unmoderated comments as well.

Mr. Ignatieff took submitted questions for an hour on such topics as the prorogation (and various other spellings thereof, ahem), electoral reform, energy and education policy, the economy and so forth. Here's a photo showing the setup in his office. The session was moderated by recently-appointed Communications Director Mario Lagüe (seen seated to Mr. Ignatieff's right with the beard, if I'm recognizing him properly, and sorry if I'm not, Mr. Lagüe; it also looks like it might be newly-appointed Chief of Staff Peter Donolo leaning over their shoulders but the picture is not big enough for my middle-aged eyes).

Labels: Liberals, Party Web Watch

A few items of political party news have accumulated that might be of interest to readers.

• The Liberal Party Rocco Rossi is irreplaceable, it turns out; at least by one person. After the Liberal national director's resignation to pursue the Toronto mayoralty, the party split up his previous functions and posted two separate jobs with a January 6 deadline: a new national director, and a new president of the National Liberal Fund who will serve as a chief fundraiser for the party. No word yet on when the results of the competitions will be announced. The Opposition Leader's Office (OLO) party liaison officer Heather Chiasson and Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff's new chief of staff Peter Donolo are both said to favour more of an NGO-style of management for the party, according to a Hill Times story from last week. Harris Maclead also reported that the new staffers can expect to earn a lot less than Rossi, and won't be able to expense weekly round trips to Toronto either.
  
• The Conservative Party New table officers were elected in early December, headed by both a new party president, John Walsh (fun fact: he's a constituent of NDP Leader Jack Layton's in Toronto – Danforth), and a new vice-president, Kara Johnson. The party's executive director is Dan Hilton. They are undoubtedly celebrating two recent court decisions that went in whole or in part in their favour. More on that in a subsequent post. (h/t Dr. Roy's Thoughts)
  
• The Green Party As we noted in a blogpost at the top of the year, the Green Party has been deliberating on what to do about part of its Bylaw #2, which mandates a leadership convention every four years. The problem they're grappling with is that the four years since their last leadership convention (where Elizabeth May beat David Chernushenko and Jim Fannon) is nearly up, but we're in a permanent election scare, and meantime the party has taken a strategic decision to focus their resources on getting their leader elected in Saanich – Gulf Islands, BC. The party's federal council debated a resolution last night that, if approved by the delegates to their August Biannual General Meeting (BGM), would replace the current bylaw s.2.1.4.5 "The Leader shall be elected in 2006 and every four (4) years thereafter" with a new version reading "The Leader shall be elected by the membership at a meeting of members constituted as a leadership convention, and a vote of confidence in the leader shall be held following a federal general election". Apparently the council has tabled the resolution with directions to consult with the membership, then rewrite the proposed by-law change, and submit it to the August BGM. Should it not be adopted, the resolution provides for a leadership convention before the end of 2010. There is a lot of discussion and debate going on, mainly at the blog of some critical Green party members, and on the party's internal email group. More background from last fall can be found at the democraticSpace blog.
  
  Meanwhile, having recruited some 200 candidates (I'm missing a few names, but thanks to a reader for sending me a list to cross-check against), the party recently laid off 4 three of its 7 regional organizers [UPDATE: and cut a 4th vacant organizer position], which has set off another round of internal debate in the comments section of another Green party member's blog.

In other political party news, it seems a new political party is starting to get organized. A regular correspondent writes to say:

I just wanted to let you know that there could be a new force soon on the political scene. I and many of us have left the Progressive Canadian Party to join with the United Party of Canada. The UCP was started by ... a long time Liberal strategist who left them to come to the PC's. His good ideas to grow the party were spurned so he and others like myself are working to make a party that takes the best ideas of the PC's Liberals, Greens and even the CAP Party. We are looking to gain from all parties but we are also looking for growth from Canadians who are disenfranchised from our current political system. We are especially looking to reengage Canada's youth in the our party and the system .... [M]any of the policies ... [from the Progressive Canadian Party] ... will find their way to the UCP .... [W]e are on the web (the page is rough but will improve).

Last summer we covered three other groups who were trying to register themselves as political parties with Elections Canada: the National Progressive Conservative Party of Canada (whose domain-name registration seems to have expired), along with the Pirate Party of Canada and the True North Party of Canada. To date, it does not appear as though the latter two been successful in meeting the registration requirements.

We also reported last summer that the recently-elected leader of the Canadian Action Party (CAP), Andrew Moulton, quit to join the Christian Heritage Party. Moulton had been elected to replace long-time CAP leader Connie Fogel. Melissa Lee Brade is now the Interim CAP Leader, taking over after the resignation of previous Interim Leader Dave Wilkinson. Brade intends to run again in Yellowhead, AB.

Labels: Conservatives, Greens, Liberals, Political Parties

The Liberals have formally nominated 128 candidates including 13 incumbents, with another 64 of their 77 incumbents promised an uncontested nomination assuming they decide to run again.

Here are the latest Liberal candidates added to the Pundits' Guide database in the past quarter:

• Oct 1, 2009 - Fredericton, NB - Pamela Campbell - contested - Retired high school principal Pam Campbell, a former president of New Brunswick Teachers' Association, defeated University of New Brunswick English prof Wendy Robbins in a vote of 193 to 97, making Campbell the first woman to run for the Liberals in this riding. She will now face first-time Conservative M.P. Keith Ashfield who won the riding after the resignation of former Liberal M.P. Andy Scott.
  
• Oct 2, 2009 - Dartmouth – Cole Harbour, NS - Michael John Savage - protected incumbent - Three-term M.P. Mike Savage was renominated at his riding association's annual general meeting early this fall, and is so far facing returning Green Party candidate Paul Shreenan. However, rumours are resurfacing that former Cole Harbour-Eastern Passage MLA Kevin Deveaux may be interested in running for the NDP nomination, now that his consulting contract in Vietnam is completed, and indeed Mr. Deveaux's domain-name and former website are still active. No date has been mentioned for any nomination meeting, nor has any Conservative name emerged in my research.
  
• Oct 2, 2009 - Tobique – Mactaquac, NB - Charles Chiasson - acclaimed - First-time candidate "Chuck" Chiasson will be facing two-term Conservative M.P. Mike Allen and a Dipper and Green to be named later (h/t the Liberal Scarf blog).
  
• Oct 3, 2009 - South Shore – St. Margaret's, NS - Derek Wells - contested - Former M.P. Wells (South Shore, 1993-1997) defeated local politician Rick Welsford in a vote of 158 to 20, for the right to take on both former NDP M.P. Gordon Earle (Halifax West, 1997-2000) who also won a contested nomination, and current five-term Conservative M.P. Gerald Keddy in this riding which was the 11th closest 3-way race and the 19th closest 2-way race of the last election. Earle came within 2.3% of the vote of defeating Keddy in 2008, and since then all five provincial ridings elected NDP MLAs in the recent provincial election. This is also the only riding I'm aware of so far that has 3 current or former MPs running against one another.
  
• Oct 3, 2009 - West Nova, NS - Robert Thibault - acclaimed - Former M.P. Robert Thibault was renominated to try and retake his old riding from first-time Conservative M.P. Greg Kerr. A reader has written to pass along that Thibault may have recently moved to conclude his employment with a company in Cape Breton, apparently so he could return to the west coast to campaign more intensively [UPDATE: It seems to have been the Municipality of Richmond in Cape Breton, and indeed Thibault has given notice that he intends to leave his position as chief administrative officer at the end of May, according to the Cape Breton Post Tuesday morning].
  
  
• Oct 3, 2009 - Miramichi, NB - Keith Vickers - contested - Vickers won the nomination over two other competitors after the former Mayor and provincial MLA John McKay withdrew citing fundraising difficulties, and he will now face first-time Conservative M.P. Tilly O'Neill-Gordon, first time Green candidate electrician Ron Mazarolle, and an NDPer to be named later.
  
• Oct 3, 2009 - New Brunswick Southwest, NB - Kelly Wilson - acclaimed - The former executive director of the Charlotte County John Howard Society was acclaimed and will now face long-time Conservative M.P. Greg Thompson, who obtained some 58% of the vote in 2008.
  
• Oct 3, 2009 - Burlington, ON - Bruce Bowser - acclaimed - After former Liberal M.P. Paddy Torsey bowed out of running, AMJ Campbell Van Lines president Bruce Bowser moved over from Wellington – Halton Hills where he ran in 2008, and will now face two-term Conservative M.P. Mike Wallace.
  
• Oct 4, 2009 - Toronto – Danforth, ON - Andrew Lang - acclaimed - 2008 candidate Andrew Lang is back for another run against NDP Leader Jack Layton in this downtown Toronto riding, along with Green Party candidate Adriana Mugnatto-Hamu and a Conservative to be named later.
  
• Oct 8, 2009 - Timmins – James Bay, ON - Marilyn Wood - acclaimed - The president of the Timmins Chamber of Commerce and owner of a environmental biotechnology company, Marilyn Wood, was acclaimed in early October to face off against three-term NDP M.P. Charlie Angus, alongside returning Green candidate Larry Verner and a Conservative candidate to be named later.
  
  
• Oct 15, 2009 - Huron – Bruce, ON - Charlie Bagnato - contested - The Mayor of Brockton, Bagnato defeated challengers Maarten Bokhout and Deb Homuth (totals not released from the 410 ballots cast) for the right to take on first-time Conservative M.P. Ben Lobb.
  
• Oct 16, 2009 - Humber – St. Barbe – Baie Verte, NL - Gerry Byrne - acclaimed - Long-time Liberal M.P. Byrne was renominated by acclamation this past October. To date he has no nominated opponents. Byrne won in 2008 with some 68% of the vote.
  
• Oct 24, 2009 - Skeena – Bulkley Valley, BC - Sharon Hartwell - acclaimed - The retiring mayor of Telkwa, BC won her party's nomination by acclamation, and will now face three-term NDP M.P. Nathan Cullen. To date no Green Party or Conservative candidates have emerged.
  
• Oct 26, 2009 - Okanagan – Coquihalla, BC - Ross Rebagliati - acclaimed - Liberals have been actively promoting this star catch for them in the lead-up to the Olympics. A gold medal snowboarder in the Nagano 1998 winter games, Ross Rebagliati's run for the nomination was confirmed a month before the BC Federal Liberals' meeting in Whistler. He will face five-term Conservative M.P. Stockwell Day, returning Green Party candidate Dan Bouchard and a New Democrat yet to be selected.
  
• Nov 12, 2009 - Regina – Lumsden – Lake Centre, SK - Monica Lysack - acclaimed - The former executive director of the Child Care Advocacy Association of Canada, Lysack is returning as the Liberal candidate running against two-term Conservative M.P. Tom Lukiwski. No other candidates have been nominated as yet in this northwest Regina riding.
  
  
• Nov 14, 2009 - Winnipeg North, MB - Roldan Sevillano, Jr. - acclaimed - A young Filipino who is a long-term care worker and the Prairies head of CFC – Youth for Christ will be running against five-term NDP M.P. Judy Wasylycia-Leis, new Green candidate John Harvie, and an as yet unnamed Conservative.
  
• Nov 22, 2009 - Laval, QC - Eva Nassif - contested - Québec Liberal nominations started to get back on track after l'affaire Coderre in late November, starting with this contested nomination north of Montréal which saw translator and 2008 Liberal candidate in Terrebonne – Blainville, Eva Nassif, defeat the 2008 Liberal candidate in this riding, Alia Haddad, and also Jean Roussel, for the right to carry the party's colours in the riding currently held by three-term Bloc Québécois M.P. Nicole Demers. Also running is insurance broker Eric Madelein for the Green Party. No Conservative or NDP candidates have been announced here as yet.
  
• Nov 24, 2009 - Rivière-du-Nord, QC - Martin Guindon - acclaimed - They followed up by picking a new candidate to run here against long-time Bloc Québécois M.P. Monique Guay, when 32-year old Martin Guindon was acclaimed.
  
• Nov 28, 2009 - Elmwood – Transcona, MB - Ilona Niemczyk - acclaimed - This marketing manager for the International College of Manitoba was formalized as the Liberal candidate at the end of November, and will join new Green candidate James Beddome, first-time NDP M.P. Jim Maloway and a Conservative to be named later.
  
• Nov 29, 2009 - Chambly – Borduas, QC - Bernard Delorme - acclaimed - The next day in this south shore Quebec riding, a professor of veterinary medicine at l'Université de Montréal in Ste-Hyacinthe was acclaimed the Liberal candidate to run against three-time Bloc Québécois M.P. Yves Lessard, joining new Green candidate Nicholas Lescarbeau.
  
• Dec 1, 2009 - Outremont, QC - Martin Cauchon - acclaimed - Two days later, the nomination meeting which acclaimed former Outremont Liberal M.P. Martin Cauchon was almost a denouement, after all the drama of the previous months. Cauchon will try to reclaim his old seat from the NDP's Thomas Mulcair, alongside four-time Green candidate François Pilon, and first-time Conservative candidate Rudy Husny.
  
  
• Dec 2, 2009 - Calgary Southwest, AB - Marlene LaMontagne - acclaimed - A senator of the University of Calgary is back for her third try to become an M.P. in Ottawa, but she'll have to defeat the current Prime Minister to do it. She'll be joined by returning Green Party candidate Kelly Christie, and a New Democrat yet to be selected.
  
• Dec 8, 2009 - Terrebonne – Blainville, QC - Robert Frégeau - acclaimed - Taking over from Eva Nassif in this riding will be notary Robert Frégeau, who ran last time in Marc-Aurèle-Fortin and the time previous in Rivière-des-Mille-Îles. He'll be facing off against four-time Bloc Québcois M.P. Diane Bourgeois and first-time Green candidate Michel Paulette, with NDP and Conservative candidates yet to be named.
  
• Dec 8, 2009 - Laurentides – Labelle, QC - Jean-Marc Lacoste - acclaimed - Another young first-time candidate is taking the plunge in this riding known for its many ski resorts and getaways such as Mont-Tremblant and Ste-Adèle. Lacoste will be facing four-term Bloc Québécois M.P. Johanne Deschamps and first-time Green Party candidate François Beauchamp. Conservative and NDP candidates are not yet in place.
  
• Dec 9, 2009 - Wellington – Halton Hills, ON - Barry Peters - acclaimed - Taking over from Bruce Bowser in this riding, is another young candidate, Barry Peters, who is presently working as the executive assistant to retiring Toronto city councillor Case Ootes. He'll be facing three-term Conservative Michael Chong, and NDP and Green candidates to be selected later.
  
• Dec 12, 2009 - Dufferin – Caledon, ON - William A. (Bill) Prout - acclaimed - Quite an odyssey to get a Liberal candidate in this riding, starting with the blog documenting Jeff May's journey to get the nomination, his subsequent withdrawal from the race, the advent of a possible Garth Turner return, and subsequent cross-claims about why a nomination meeting was not allowed to be called, leading Turner to resign. Finally, local solar-power generater Bill Prout stepped into the breach, and was formally nominated the middle of last month. He'll be facing three-term Conservative M.P. David Tilson, and returning Green candidate Ard Van Leeuwen, and an NDP candidate to be named later.
  
  
• Dec 13, 2009 - Simcoe North, ON - Steve Clarke - acclaimed - 2008 candidate, restauranteur Steve Clarke, is back for another run against two-term Conservative M.P. Bruce Stanton, as is Green candidate Valerie Powell. An NDP nomination meeting for last December has now been rescheduled for next Sunday, January 17, where it's expected that 2008 candidate, publisher Richard Banigan, will be acclaimed, meaning that the next election will feature exactly the same slate of candidates as the last one in this riding.
  
• Dec 14, 2009 - Québec, QC - Anne Gagné - acclaimed - A nutritionist will carry the Liberal colours in the centre of Québec's provincial capital, facing long-time Bloc Québécois M.P. Christiane Gagnon (who is not yet nominated, but planning to run again), along with first-time Conservative and Bloc Green candidates, Pierre Morasse and Denis Poisson [thanks to commenter Chris for the typo alert].
  

If you have nomination news to pass along from your part of the country, please drop me a line. You can also follow along @punditsguide on Twitter. Next time we'll get caught up on the Conservatives.

Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Liberals

Let's move on to the part of the country's largest province that's home to both a significant part of the franco-Ontarian fact and the nation's loyalist roots, alongside Algonquin and Mohawk first nations obviously, and many newcomers as well: namely Eastern Ontario, plus the National Capital Region (NCR) which means Ottawa.

NCR (6 seats)

• The Green Party has fielded a full slate of candidates already.
• The Liberals have nominated in all but their two incumbent seats (and as their incumbents are protected from facing contests whenever the time comes, it's only a question now whether either of them would retire).
• The Conservatives have nominated in all but Ottawa South and Ottawa Centre, although we've previously reported that Bruce Kyereh-Addo is interested in the Centre nomination, along with a few other unnamed candidates. The 2008 candidate in South, Elie Salibi, is now working for a cabinet minister on Parliament Hill. My sources tell me that no nomination meeting has been planned there at all for the time being.
• The NDP has nominated in all but Ottawa – Vanier and Nepean – Carleton. I haven't heard any news as to their plans in those seats, but if I had to guess, some Nortel retirees are probably on the candidate search lists.

Here are the ridings from east to west. (Some have argued that Carleton – Mississippi Mills should be included in the NCR list, but I put it into Eastern Ontario because of the rural nature of the riding, and its voting patterns. Certainly part of that riding is in greater Ottawa, however. UPDATE: A geographer has written and convinced me that it truly is an Ottawa riding. Hey, I grew up in the east-end; what can I say! When I make revisions to the construction of the so-called "local regions", I'll be moving that riding over.):

• Ottawa – Orléans, ON - This east-end riding has the lowest percent of immigrants of the six NCR ridings, the largest percents of married and common-law couples, and the greatest concentration of families with children. It's a bedroom community of newer developments on what was farmland when I grew up, and has the highest proportion of folks whose mother-tongue is french in the area. The riding is currently held by (my former family neighbour) long-time consultant and two-term Conservative M.P. Royal Galipeau. The former Liberal M.P. he defeated in 2004, Marc Godbout, gave up after two attempts to win his seat back, and so after a hotly contested three-way nomination contest this past September, Galipeau has a new Liberal opponent in lawyer David Bertschi. Also running are 2008 Green candidate Paul Maillet, a retired Air Forces Colonel, and new NDP candidate John Courtneidge, a chemist and anti-poverty activist, who was just nominated this past Monday, November 30. The riding has featured two-way Liberal-Conservative contests for most of its history, and in one of its earlier incarnations was represented by John Turner in the 1960s. The two main parties here have both spent nearly the full limit in recent outings, with the other parties spending under 10%.
  
• Ottawa – Vanier, ON - Next door is this traditionally francophone riding which also contains the University of Ottawa, Byward Market, National Defence Headquarters, and the eastern part of downtown Ottawa, along with the extremes of 24 Sussex Drive and Rockliffe Park on the one hand and Lowertown on the other. It has the largest proportion of people who speak french at home of the six ridings, but unlike Ottawa – Orléans which has the highest percent of home-owners and lowest percent of tenants, Ottawa –Vanier has the second-highest percent of tenants (and the second-lowest of homeowners). It has been the closest thing to a Liberal dynasty in the area, although six-term Liberal M.P. Mauril Bélanger's vote-shares have come down somewhat from the stratosphere in more recent years. This past October 14, the Conservatives (who have run as high as 29% here in recent times) nominated a new candidate in Rem Westland, a former military man who was the long-time Director General of Specific Claims at the Department of Indian Affairs. And in late August, the Green Party selected a new candidate, software designer Caroline Rioux, in a contested nomination. The NDP, which itself has run as high as 22% of the vote here lately, has yet to announce plans about its candidate search.
  
• Ottawa Centre, ON - Next door is the riding that contains Parliament Hill, Carleton University, the Experimental Farm, and most downtown government and private offices, and then continues west along the Ottawa River. It's currently held by two-term NDP M.P. Paul Dewar, a regular fixture on TV political panels due at least in part to his proximity to all the downtown TV studios on the weekend. He was elected after the retirement of Ed Broadbent (formerly of Oshawa), who won the riding for a single two-year term from 2004-06, when then-new NDP Leader Jack Layton urged him to come out of retirement. Dewar has been winning with a vote-share in the high 30s, but a divided opposition, and certainly the riding has been an NDP-Liberal contest since the 1980s, but always with a significant Conservative presence. His new Liberal opponent, pharmaceutical executive Scott Bradley, won a contested nomination in a bit of an upset back in September over presumed Ignatieff-favourite, communication executive Janet Yale. The 2008 Green candidate, software executive Jen Hunter, is also returning, and as mentioned above the Conservatives have yet to announce any candidate selection timelines but have several folks apparently interested.
  
• Ottawa South, ON - I just looked it up now, because I wasn't sure which McGuinty brother was older: the Ottawa South M.P. David or the Ottawa South M.P.P./Premier Dalton (it's Premier Dalton, by 5 years; their youngest brother Brendan has held behind the scenes positions municipally in Ottawa as well). David McGuinty won the federal Liberal nomination in 2004, when former Chrétien-era cabinet minister John Manley retired, but that nomination was not without controversy, as two women candidates were hampered by a combination of rules, process, and influence (documented here (PDF) the following year by former Liberal national director Sheila Gervais, as part of a paper for the Queens University Centre for the Study of Democracy). The riding contains the highest proportion of immigrants of the six Ottawa-area seats and the largest number of Muslims, and has to this point been a two-way Liberal-Conservative contest. McGuinty, should he run again as expected, will be facing at least two of his 2008 opponents as well: the NDP's Hijal de Sarkar and Qais Ghanam for the Green Party. No Conservative candidate selection process has been launched to date.
  
  I just noticed that Ghanam's 2008 campaign spending represented a very large hike over Green Party spending in this riding in 2006 (23% of the limit, up from 3%), however it was not enough to bring him over the 10% threshold for a candidate rebate, and garnered him only another 1,020 votes over the party's earlier total of 2,900 or so. Earlier, in 2004, the NDP invested heavily in the riding campaign of Monia Mazigh (best known for her advocacy on behalf of her husband Maher Arar), spending an unusually-high-for-them-here 89% of the limit on Mazigh's campaign. This helped to more than double their vote totals from 2000 (up over 8,000 votes from just under 3,500), and then 2006 candidate Henri Sader was able to hold this new vote in spite of spending significantly less. Other than those two cases, the parties spent pretty much as you'd expect for a two-way race.
  
• Ottawa West – Nepean, ON - Another two-way contest is usually found in this west-end riding, currently represented by two-term M.P. John Baird. It has the local reputation of swinging with the government (although former Liberal M.P. Marlene Catterall broke that spell by winning in 1988), it has the highest proportion of folks who only know English of ridings in Ottawa (over 70%), the lowest proportion of people who know both English and French, and the second-highest concentration of visible minorities. It would have been home to many Nortel and other high tech workers during the high tech boom, given the location of so many of those tech companies in the city's west end. Taking his second try at returning to public office is former Liberal M.P. David Pratt, who was acclaimed their candidate earlier this year (after Janet Yale briefing mused about running against him, but demurred in favour of Ottawa Centre). Pratt came late to the 2008 election in this riding, after sitting out the 2006 campaign. The NDP's Marlene Rivier, a psychological consultant, is returning to fly her party's colours one more time, while the Greens have a new candidate in Mark MacKenzie who runs his own organic lawncare business. Baird was first elected in 2006 after Marlene Catterall retired and he was able to move ahead of her replacement, and he then kept the seat in 2008 with roughly the same margin of victory (9% or so).
  
• Nepean – Carleton, ON - Furthest southwest, we find another growing bedroom community, where over half the homes were built within the last 20 years, there are fewer apartment buildings than any other city riding, residents pay both the highest rental payments and housing costs in the area, and most people drive to work. The riding was Tory for years under Richard Bell, Walter Baker and Bill Tupper, with brief Liberal interregnums from 1963-65, and a term when Trudeau first ran in 1968. But Liberal Beryl Gaffney broke that stranglehold in 1988 when she edged Tupper out, and was succeeded after serving two terms by another Liberal M.P. David Pratt. Pratt served two terms until he was defeated by Conservative Pierre Poilievre in 2004, who has been reelected twice since then with over 55% of the vote and margins of 25% or higher. Poilievre will face a new Liberal challenger this time, laywer Ryan Keon (whose dad is Conservative Senator and heart surgeon Dr. Wilbert Keon), and a new Green candidate, IT security consultant Jean-Luc Cooke. Unlike Ottawa South, a big spending hike in the 2008 Green campaign (from 7% of the limit to 22%) was associated with a doubling in Green support to some 8,000 votes, pushing them slightly ahead of the NDP candidate who had spent the party's usual 15% of the limit. No NDP candidate has been selected for this riding as yet.

We'll finish off Eastern Ontario next time with the rural ridings.

Don't forget to cast your ballot in the Canadian Blog Awards for the best political blogs. Voting in the first round continues until next Saturday December 12.

Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Conservatives, Greens, Liberals, NDP

Before we move onto the first in a series of Ontario catchups, there are a few follow-ups to note from our earlier catchups in Québec and the Atlantic.

• Charlottetown, PE - Educator Donna Profit won the contested nomination over retired RCMP officer Robert Campbell last Friday, November 27, and will now carry the Conservative banner against four-term Liberal M.P. Shawn Murphy. Already nominated for the Green Party is arts administrator Corin McFadden. No NDP candidates have been nominated anywhere on the Island as yet, although this was the riding where they obtained their only second place finish in recent Island history in 1997 under former candidate, lawyer Dolores (Dodi) Crane. Since 2000 when he was first elected to replace former Liberal M.P. George Proud with 42% of the vote, Murphy has polled 50% or better on election day.
  
• West Nova, NS - The next day, New Democrats met in Digby to formalize the nomination of their new candidate, Andrew Baxter, who will now join first-time Conservative M.P. Greg Kerr, former Liberal M.P. Robert Thibault who was renominated at the beginning of October, and a Green to be named later. After coming within 512 votes of defeating Thibault in 2006 (2.3 votes per poll or 1.1% of the vote), Kerr returned in 2008, holding more of his vote than Thibault could, and defeating him in the process. The riding has always been a Liberal-Conservative two-way contest, with a reasonably constant third-place vote-share for the NDP, and typically fairly evenly matched campaign spending between the two lead candidates. Even in the recent provincial election that elected an NDP government province-wide, 4/6 of the provincial ridings within this riding's borders returned Liberals and 2/6 returned Conservatives. So, it will likely see direct combat between the two main challengers, now entering their third match against one another.
  
• Halifax, NS - First-time NDP M.P. Megan Leslie was renominated in her riding the next night (Sunday, November 29), where she'll be facing Liberal candidate Stan Kutcher who won a nomination contest last fall, along with first-time Green candidate Anthony Rosborough, and a Conservative to be named later. Leslie maintained most of former NDP M.P. Alexa McDonough's raw vote in the last election, but saw her opponents' strength equalize somewhat as the Liberal vote fell and turnout dropped. Neither major opponent matched Leslie's campaign spending either (she spent 91% of the limit, to the Liberals' 54% and the Conservatives' 71%).
• Joliette, QC - Bloc Québécois House Leader Pierre Paquette was also to have been renominated on Sunday, for the fifth time in his case, in this north-shore riding which he has always won with 50-60% of the vote. He will face returning 2008 candidates Suzie St-Onge for the Liberals, and Francine Raynault for the NDP. No Conservative candidate has or Green candidates have surfaced as yet. MORNING POST-COFFEE UPDATE: 2008 Green candidate Annie Durette has been renominated. Sorry, Ms. Durette.
  
• Laval – Les Îles, QC - A sixth NDP candidate has now been officially nominated in Québec, as Laval municipal workers' union vice-president François Pilon was acclaimed on Saturday, November 28. This is Pilon's fourth run for the NDP, although his first in a Laval riding (he previously ran in Honoré-Mercier from 2004-08).
  
  With the arrival of Jack Layton as NDP leader, the decision of a number of FTQ activists to run for the NDP in 2004, while others were running for the Bloc Québécois, put the FTQ (Fédération des Travailleurs et Travailleuses du Québec) into a difficult situation, such that it took pains to clarify that it endorsed neither party, but supported its members who were running for office, and recognized that as a labour central, some of its member unions were supporting each of the parties directly. It was interesting to read, as part of NDP backroomer Brian Topp's series this week on last year's coalition negotiations, that it was the FTQ which had facilitated discussions between Layton and the Bloc early in the Fall of 2008 about replacing the Conservative government (Topp himself has a grounding in the party's Québec strategy, being fluently bilingual and a former organizer and aide for one-time NDP M.P. Phil Edmonston).
  
  Many of the NDP's candidates in the last campaign originated from the house of labour, including candidates from the CEP (e.g., recent Hochelaga by-election candidate Jean-Claude Rocheleau), CUPE, the Postal Workers and Steelworkers. Meanwhile, the Québec wing of the Autoworkers strongly supports the Bloc Québécois (something the Liberal Party may not have realized when it played footsie with former CAW President Buzz Hargrove in 2006), and it has provided them with a number of candidates, as has the CSN labour central, the electrical workers, and the fraternity of forestry and manufacturing workers among others. In the wake of the Hochelaga by-election, where the NDP challenged the Bloc candidate for being anti-union and too conservative, I'm going to be following this trend, and taking a look at how the Québec labour movement is represented in the two parties' slates (and other parties' too of course if they show up there as well).
  
  Back to the choice of riding: it includes the west half of Thomas Mulcair's former provincial riding of Chomeday, and is currently represented by five-term Liberal M.P. Raymonde Folco. She found herself facing her former political aide, Agop Evereklian, as a Conservative candidate in the last campaign (he placed 3rd). Then last summer she appeared on Denis Coderre's list of M.P.'s he wanted to have retire to make way for new candidates. After a personal entreaty to new Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff, Folco received his commitment of support for another run, and indeed it was in her riding where Ignatieff attended his first Québec fundraiser after Mr. Coderre's resignation (probably a welcome event, since the Liberal riding association there had run a deficit in both 2006 and 2007, and still has not filed its 2008 annual return some six months after the May 2009 deadline).
  
  Both the Bloc Québécois (which placed 2nd last time) and the Green Party (which placed 5th) have renominated their 2008 candidates, while I have no record of any Conservative candidate being installed as yet. Folco's vote-share has moved down from the 50-odd% she obtained in 1997 and 2000 (with campaign spending of 82% and 93% of the limit respectively) to 40-some% in the three elections since then (with declining spending of 60%, then 56% and recently as little as 52% of the limit), but the Bloc vote-share has been falling along with its spending as well. Perhaps it's not surprising, then, that the other parties would try to find the kind of candidates they believe might be able to take advantage of any further weakening in Liberal organization there.
• Outremont, QC - On Tuesday, December 1, 2009, Coderre's nemesis Martin Cauchon was finally formalized by acclamation as the Liberal candidate in his former riding, his last remaining opponent Comlan Amouzou having withdrawn from the race weeks before. It's hard not to conclude that this riding will be the battle-royale to watch on the Island of Montréal in the next election, given the stakes for both Cauchon and the lone NDP Québec M.P. Thomas Mulcair who now holds the seat, as most commentators are assuming each man would be a contestant for his party's leadership whenever it next opens up. Seated next to Cauchon at his nomination meeting, meanwhile, was one of his likely competitors for that leadership: Papineau Liberal M.P. Justin Trudeau.

With those updates out of the way, we'll move on, as planned, to Eastern Ontario in the next nomination news roundup.

Meantime, as this blog approaches its second anniversary, it was kind of nice to be picked as one of the "Sites of the Week" on the Bloggerheads panel of CBC "Power and Politics" this evening, especially when the nod came from as experienced a blogger as @JeffJedras of BCer in TO (thanks, man).

Also, you can vote for Jeff's blog, or mine, or any of a number of excellent Canadian political blogs from right across the spectrum, during the first round of voting for the Canadian Blog Awards, which ends next Saturday, December 12 (that's a week from today, by the time you read this post). Pundits' Guide was also nominated in the "best blog post" category for the summer post "May-Day in Saanich-Gulf Islands" where I broke the news that Elizabeth May was being challenged for her nomination.

Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Conservatives, Labour, Liberals, NDP

Leading the non-Bloc nomination news in Québec in the last few days was the announcement by the Green Party of its new Québec Deputy Leader: not Stéphane Dion or Janine Krieber, per Wells' First Rule of Politics, but rather retired Radio-Canada environment reporter Jacques Rivard.

The only question I have is where Rivard will run, given that he's Montréal-based and the Green Party has already filled virtually every Montréal-area riding. I've just updated all the GPC nominations for Québec, and the only vacancies I see are: Saint-Léonard – Saint-Michel, Hochelaga (assuming Christine Lebel isn't hoping to run again), Alfred-Pellan in the Laval area, Saint-Lambert and Saint-Bruno – Saint-Hubert on the south-shore, or maybe Beauharnois – Salaberry if he doesn't mind going that far. Unfortunately none of Rivard's former colleagues in the media thought to ask, so we'll just have to wait for the answer from the party.

The Green party has now nominated candidates in 50/75 Québec ridings, more than even the Bloc Québécois, with only about a third of them return candidates from 2008 (18/50). Former deputy leader Claude William Genest does not seem to be running again so far, given that the three ridings in which he's previously run are all now filled by other Green nominees. There's also a candidate again in Stéphane Dion's west Island riding of Saint-Laurent – Cartierville.

Meanwhile, thanks to a forgetful Hill denizen and the ever-alert Steve Maher of the Halifax Chronicle-Herald, we know from Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff's schedule (PDF) that he was to meet Eastern Québec Liberal candidates and their organizers Wednesday night in Québec city. I count about 12 nominated candidates who would fit the bill, if you include everything from Manicouagan to Joliette on the north shore, and from Haute-Gaspésie – La Mitis – Matane – Matapédia to Brome – Missisquoi on the south shore (roughly 33 ridings all told).

Summer Liberal nomination news in Québec was all about Outremont, and extensively covered by all the traditional sources, but for those who missed the dénouement, Martin Cauchon's only remaining competition for the nomination, Liberal riding executive member and president of "Médecins d'ailleurs" Comlan Amouzou, withdrew from the nomination race in late October, according to Le Devoir. Resigning his post as riding vice-president at the same time, Amouzou charged that forces within the party had been urging him to pull out of the race; saying

«Je me pose de très sérieuses questions sur la place des communautés ethniques au sein du Parti libéral du Canada au Québec, dit-il. Ce parti est devenu une chasse gardée pour quelques privilégiés qui agissent en fonction de leurs intérêts et de leurs ambitions au détriment des aspirations des militants de la base. Je ne reconnais plus les véritables valeurs libérales.»

Meanwhile, the departure of Denis Coderre as Québec lieutenant has left a few more nominations up in the air (we reported on some others earlier here):

• Trois-Rivières, QC - Former radio host Robert Pilotte confirmed to Le Nouvelliste in late September that he was the candidate Denis Coderre had been holding the riding for. Readers will recall that Coderre ran afoul of local Liberals in the Trois-Rivières in his late August bid to court former ADQ House Leader Sébastien Proulx, deemed a bit on the conservative side by some members of the local riding. Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff had just visited riding activists there a few days before the September story on Pilotte appeared. In it, the regional president of the federal Liberal association in Québec argued strongly for an open nomination so that "the best candidate can win", noting that other names had also been circulating. Riding president Jean Boulet, meanwhile, was being a lot more circumspect about the nature and timing of the nomination meeting, and we learned why in early November: he had been considering a run himself, although he eventually ruled it out, as did another prospective candidate: Serge Lafrenière of Investors Group. This has left Patrice Mangin, director-general of the "Centre intégré des pâtes et papiers", as the only candidate in the race so far with no meeting date established in the foreseeable future. The riding is currently held by three-term Bloc Québécois M.P. Paule Brunelle.
• Beauport – Limoilou, QC - Another former radio host courted by Coderre ruled himself out of the running for the Liberals in mid-October, reported the Journal de Québec. Martin Pouliot said the fact that there would not be an election made his decision easier, but also cited the resignation of Mr. Coderre and the ensuing "collapse" of the federal Liberals in Québec. The riding is currently held by two-term Conservative M.P. Sylvie Boucher.
• Québec, QC - Also unknown, according to Le Soleil last month, is the current status, or even interest, of former provincial Liberal cabinet minister Jean Leclerc, who was reportedly interested in Coderre's approaches about running in this other Québec City riding earlier in the summer. The riding is currently held by long-time Bloc Québécois M.P. Christiane Gagnon who, although she is not yet nominated, told me at the Equal Voice reception on Tuesday night that she was indeed planning to run again, but keeps her nomination meeting to the last minute, since the Bloc campaign has often launched in her riding, which presumably makes for a quick and easy opening day event for them.
  
• Louis-Hébert, QC - However for every door that closes another potentially opens, since former M.P. Hélène Chalifour Scherrer, who had wanted to run but was being apparently being blocked in that ambition by Coderre, may now be willing to run, the same Le Soleil story suggested. I'm also told by a reader that the Conservatives have a candidate in this riding, Pierre Paul-Hus, who publishes a french-language military magazine. I've been trying to confirm his status as a candidate, so if you can help with details such as when he was nominated, and was it a contest, please do get in touch and pass it along so I can enter him into the database. The seat is now held by first-time Bloc Québécois M.P. Pascal-Pierre Paillé, whose family name may sound familiar to you, as he is the nephew of recently-elected Hochelaga Bloc M.P. Daniel Paillé.

As for the NDP, it has not approved too many ridings to hold nomination meetings in Québec as yet, although for some reason it has a pocket of three nominees in the Mauricie-Lanaudière ridings, including an elected municipal councillor, Manon Perrault in Montcalm, returning labour candidate Réjean Bellemare in Repentigny, and returning candidate Francine Raynault in Joliette.

Also renominated are party Québec section treasurer and pharmacist Hoang Mai in Brossard – La Prairie, QC (the 5th closest four-way race of the last election), and community activist Christelle Bogosta in Brome – Missisquoi, QC (the 5th closest two-way race in Quebec last time, and also mathematically very close to the criteria for three-way and four-way races).

Finally, both the NDP's by-election candidates, Jean-Claude Rocheleau in Hochelaga and François Lapointe in Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, have told their local papers that they could run again in the next election.

We'll pick up next time in Ontario, which has seen a lot of new Conservative and NDP candidates since we last checked in.

Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Conservatives, Greens, Liberals, NDP

After our last foray back into the nomination news for the 41st general election whenever it comes, there were a few details left to tidy up in the Atlantic provinces before moving on to Québec.

Prince Edward Island (4 seats)

• Charlottetown, PE - Thanks to a reader for sending along this clipping from the Charlottetown Guardian last week regarding upcoming Conservative Party nominations in the province. It turns out they have a contested nomination here slated for this coming Friday, November 27, where Robert Campbell and Donna Profit (no biographical information available at time of writing) will be facing off for the right to run against four-term Liberal M.P. Shawn Murphy, and first-time Green party candidate arts administrator Corin McFadden.
• Cardigan, PE - Lawyer Kerri Carpenter will be seeking the Conservative nomination in this riding currently held by 21-year Liberal M.P. Lawrence MacAulay. No date has been set for the meeting as yet, and it is unknown whether she will be challenged. Although all Liberal M.P.s are entitled to run unopposed for their nominations, as yet MacAulay's nomination has not been formalized.
  
• Malpeque, PE - The former president of the Atlantic Veterinary College, Tim Ogilvie is also seeking to run for the Conservatives, this time against 15-year six-term Liberal M.P. Wayne Easter. Again, no meeting date has been set, and it's unknown whether he'll have company. If he does, it won't be 2008 candidate Mary Crane, however, as she's just accepted a teaching job in Qatar. Dentist Peter Bevan-Baker is returning for a third run on behalf of the Green Party, having been acclaimed back on April 6, 2009.
  
• Egmont, PE - The other three ridings will thus round out a full slate of Conservative candidates for the Island, with first-time M.P. Conservative Gail Shea already automatically renominated by her party on May 4, 2009 along with the rest of the caucus. No Liberal opponent for Ms. Shea has been confirmed yet, 2008 candidate Keith Milligan having ruled himself out earlier this summer to take care of a family medical situation. However several candidates were said to be interested this past summer pending Milligan's decision, including Matt McGuire (son of former Liberal M.P. Joe McGuire, whose 2008 retirement opened up the seat for Shea), McGuire's former constituency assistant Kelly Ellis, 2008 nomination candidate Angie Cormier, former provincial party president Brenda Hackett, businessman Warren Ellis, and two Liberal MLAs: Janice Sherry and Rob Henderson. The Liberal riding association was originally expected to hold a nomination meeting in late September or early October, but I haven't seen anything about it since then, although with Liberal Leader expected on the Island this weekend for their annual fall dinner, we may hear some more news then. Meanwhile the Green Party's Karl Hengst was acclaimed on October 9, but does not have a website as yet so no biographical information is currently available.
  

As yet there's been no reported nomination activity from the federal New Democratic Party. The province just concluded its municipal elections on November 2, however, so it's likely that with a fall election out of the picture, attention had turned elsewhere for all the political parties. The provincial PCs have a leadership race coming up, but not until September of 2010.

Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Conservatives, Liberals

With the by-elections out of the way, it's high time we got back to a cross-country review of nominations. And with this much of a catch-up to do, I'm going to be asking readers for a hand. Thanks to those of you who have been patiently sending in nomination news when you came across it. I'm going through it all now, but if I miss something you sent, please don't be offended ... just write me back and let me know.

Newfoundland and Labrador (7 seats)

All I'm aware of at present are:

• 2 New Democrats (incumbent St. John's East M.P. Jack Harris and 2008 St. John's South – Mount Pearl candidate Ryan Cleary), and
• 1 Liberal (incumbent Humber – St. Barbe – Baie Verte M.P. Gerry Byrne)
• A news story awhile back speculated that Conservative Senator and former M.P. Fabian Manning might be interested in running again in Avalon, but I haven't heard anything further there.

Prince Edward Island (4 seats)

Again, not too many names to report here yet:

• 3 Green candidates (previous candidate Peter Bevan-Maker in Malpeque, arts administrator Corin McFadden in Charlottetown, and Karl Hengst in Egmont), and
• 1 Conservative (incumbent M.P. Gail Shea in Egmont was automatically renominated with the rest of her caucus on May 4)

Nova Scotia (11 seats)

A bit better coverage here:

• 6 Liberals (2 of the 5 incumbents, Geoff Regan in Halifax West and Mike Savage in Dartmouth – Cole Harbour, along with former M.P.s Robert Thibault in West Nova and Derek Wells in South Shore – St. Margaret's, Stan L. Kutcher who won a contested nomination in Halifax in late August, and 2008 candidate Carolyn Scott who was renominated by acclamation in late September in Sackville – Eastern Shore)
• 6 Greens (Michael Dewar in Sackville – Eastern Shore, Anthony Rosborough in Halifax, Thomas Trappenberg in Halifax West, and Paul Shreenan in Dartmouth – Cole Harbour, who are in the database, along with Celine Papillon in Central Nova and Sheila Richardson in Kings – Hants, who aren't there yet, pending me obtaining their details as to nomination date and method)
• 4 Conservatives (the 3 incumbents, Peter MacKay in Central Nova, Gerald Keddy in South Shore – St. Margaret's, and Greg Kerr in West Nova; along with Clarence Derrick Kennedy in Cape Breton – Canso)
• 2 New Democrats (Peter Stoffer is the first of 2 incumbents to be renominated in Sackville – Eastern Shore, while former M.P. Gordon Earle received the nod in South Shore – St. Margaret's this past summer). Halifax West has scheduled a nomination meeting for Thursday November 26 at which Atlantic Film Festival executive director Gregor Ash is expected to be acclaimed, and Halifax follows on Sunday November 29, when M.P. Megan Leslie hopes to receive her party's nod once again as well

New Brunswick (10 seats)

The site of a lot of contested Liberal nominations earlier this year:

• all 6 incumbent Conservatives were automatically renominated on May 4, 2009 (Keith Ashfield in Fredericton, Rob Moore in Fundy Royal, Tilly O'Neill-Gordon in Miramichi, Greg Thompson in New Brunswick Southwest, Rodney Weston in Saint John, and Mike Allen in Tobique – Mactaquac)
  
• 5 Liberals (all in Conservative-held ridings: Pam Campbell in Fredericton, Dave Delaney in Fundy Royal, Keith Vickers in Miramichi, Kelly Wilson in New Brunswick Southwest, and Charles Chiasson in Tobique – Mactaquac). This leaves the 3 incumbent Liberal MPs, who are all able to run uncontested, Saint John which is assumed to be left open for former M.P. Paul Zed, and NDP-held Acadie – Bathurst)
• 2 Greens (Ron Mazerolle in Miramichi and Steven Steeves in Moncton – Riverview – Dieppe). According to ElectionPrediction.org, their very popular candidate last time in Fredericton, Mary Lou Babineau, is not running again, however.
  
• 1 New Democrat (incumbent Yvon Godin was renominated in Acadie – Bathurst a week ago, Sunday, November 8, with NDP Leader Jack Layton in attendance)

So, in summary, across 32 seats with 128 or more candidates expected to run, 36 have been confirmed as nominated so far, with two more just pending me obtaining their dates, another two with scheduled nomination meetings, and most of the candidates in the recent Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley by-election also indicating their interest in running again. Five of the 36 are women, as are both of the two pending dates, and one of the scheduled nominees, so 8/40.

That brings us up-to-date in the Atlantic provinces. Next stop: Québec. If you have nomination news to share with other readers, I'm back in full gear on that front, so please drop me a line. Then follow along on Twitter.

Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Conservatives, Greens, Liberals, NDP

[UPDATE: See below for story from La Presse Canadienne on Hochelaga Bloc nomination.]

Switching back from by-election coverage to the non-byelection nomination news, we have a last spurt of nominations to cover, after which it appears that things are slowing down for the fall. Many fewer meetings are scheduled for the coming weeks, and I'm hearing unconfirmed reports that other meetings and announcements are being delayed. Blogger tcnorris is arguing tonight that the announcement of the royal visit and the calling of the byelections signals that the Prime Minister is unlikely to try and engineer his own defeat this fall, and I think that's probably about right.

Indeed, if the election window drags out longer than that, we may start to see the opposition phenomenon .... candidates dropping out because the timing turns bad for them, and MPs with long service deciding to sit out the next campaign after all.

Personally, I'm looking forward to the break so we can return to some other analyses around here that got crowded out by the onslaught of nomination news. So, let's get down to it now, starting with candidates who have been selected recently:

• Leeds – Grenville, ON - The NDP has renominated its 2008 candidate in this riding, Brockville and District Labour Council president Steve Armstrong this past week. Meantime, the Green Party now has a three-way nomination race on the go, with a meeting set for Thursday, October 15 as we've already reported here. Armstrong and the winner of the Green contest will be joining recently nominated Liberal candidate Marjory Loveys, and three-term Conservative M.P. Gord Brown on the campaign trail.
  
• Oak Ridges – Markham, ON - NDP - Three-time NDP candidate in neighbouring Markham – Unionville, Janice Hagen, was nominated last Friday, October 2 in her new riding. She will now face first-time Conservative M.P. Paul Calandra, and former Liberal M.P. Lui Temelkovski.
  
• Miramichi, NB - As we quickly reported last weekend, Keith Vickers, and former aide to the former Liberal M.P. for this riding, Charlie Hubbard, won the 3-way contested nomination in this riding last Saturday, October 3. According to the Miramichi Leader, which ran down the details of the ballotting, Vickers won on the second ballot, with some 650 members voting in a room of 800, telling the crowd afterwards that the seat is "ours and we're going to take it back". If they do, it will be from first-time Conservative M.P. Tilly O'Neill-Gordon.
  
• Essex, ON - The NDP renominated three-time candidate Taras Natyshak this past Saturday, reported the Amherstburg Echo. Natyshak be will facing two-time Conservative M.P. Jeff Watson for the third straight contest, with a new Liberal face, Kingsville Mayor Nelson Santos, joining the race alongside first-time Green Party candidate Cora Carriveau. The riding has been held by all 3 major parties since 1984. The NDP's Steven Langdon won the former riding of Essex-Windsor in 1984, on the retirement of long-time (and colourful) former Liberal M.P. Eugene Whelan. Langdon held the seat for two terms, losing alongside many NDP incumbents in 1993 to first-time Liberal M.P.s, in this case Whelan's daughter Susan. She then held the seat for 3 terms, but lost to Watson in 2004, and after trying twice more to regain it, ruled herself out of the Liberal nomination this time. The riding has been a 3-way race in two of the last three elections, but historically has seen everything from crushing Liberal victories under Whelan Sr., to a third-place finish for his successor. And unlike many ridings in which the NDP did much worse in the elections of 1993 and 2000, that party never dropped below 14%, and have scored as high as 44%. Conservatives posted a record low of 14% in the Free Trade election of 1988, but scored as high as 40% 20 years later. The riding has a combination of agriculture and folks dependent on the auto sector, and surrounds the city of Windsor. I think it's going to make for an interesting window into how Ontario goes in the next election.
  
• Haldimand – Norfolk, ON - Also on Saturday, the NDP renominated 2008 candidate Ian Nichols by acclamation in this rural southwestern Ontario riding, currently held by three-term Conservative M.P. Diane Finley, and also being contested by former Liberal M.P. Bob Speller and first-time Green candidate Anne Faulkner. Local NDP members are noting that this marks the first time they've had the same candidate run more than once for them in this riding. Meanwhile, Speller recently picked up the endorsement of a former prime minister, as Paul Martin recently visited Brantford in support of his campaign.
  
• Davenport, ON - Calling it "just like a gig, but with a tie", musician and member of the band "The Skydiggers" Andrew Cash accepted the NDP nomination in the Toronto riding of Davenport on Monday, October 5 before a room of several hundred who were treated to live music alongside the usual speeches, including leader Jack Layton, M.P. Charlie Angus, and most of the band Blue Rodeo, according to one tweeter in attendance. Cash will be facing three-term Liberal M.P. Mario Silva, who has won the riding with 46%-52% of the vote each time. The NDP has been able to post a 30-32% vote share since the forced retirement of long-time Liberal M.P. Charles Caccia in 2004, before which they earned 14-18%. Conservative candidates typically score around 10-12% in the riding, and a strong Green candidate in 2008, bike courier activist Wayne Scott, came in just behind them. Traditionally considered the home of the Portuguese community, the MediaStyle.ca blog reports that Davenport has been changing demographically in recent years to include "a growing core 'creative class'", and indeed the riding ranked 14th in the country in the 2006 census for employment in art, culture, recreation and sport, even if that does represent just 7.15% of its population.
  
• Burlington, ON - As well on Monday night, child protection worker and NDPer David Laird was renominated his party's candidate for the 4th time in this riding just outside Hamilton. He will join two-term Conservative M.P. Mike Wallace and Liberal candidate Bruce Bowser, who ran in Wellington – Halton Hills in 2008. Here's a riding where the NDP and Green vote did not change much between 2004 and 2008, but the seat changed hands strictly on the exchange of Liberal and Conservative votes. It was close in 2004 when Wallace nearly overtook former Liberal M.P. Paddy Torsney, and again in 2006 when he finally did, but by 2008 Wallace was able retain his raw vote, while the Liberal vote apparently stayed home as turnout fell.
  
• Barrie, ON - Another return NDP candidate, Myrna Clark, was renominated by acclamation in this riding northwest of Toronto on Wednesday, October 7, according to the Barrie Examiner. Clark will rejoin three-time Conservative M.P. Patrick Brown, and three-time Green Party candidate Erich Jacoby-Hawkins, and a Liberal to be named later. Again, the NDP vote has stayed within a range of 10-12% here since 2004, with the Greens growing somewhat, but unlike Burlington, the Liberal vote here plummetted by around 10,000 votes between 2006 and 2008, with the Conservatives picking up about 4,000 of them, the Greens another 2,000 and the rest staying home as turnout fell. Thanks to a reader for supplying the clipping.
  
• Simcoe – Grey, ON - Thanks to a reader for sending along this clipping from the Wasaga Sun, reporting the nomination by acclamation of Green Party candidate Stuart Starbuck, also on Wednesday. Realtor Phil Baldwin had earlier been planning to contest the nomination, but withdrew citing work conditions. Starbuck, a former municipal councillor, will now join three-time Conservative M.P. Helena Guergis, returning Liberal candidate Andrea Matrosovs, and two-time NDP candidate Katy Austin, who was also recently acclaimed on September 28.
  
• Saskatoon – Wanuskewin, SK - Another reader wrote in to say that the expected contested NDP nomination in this riding between Barb Henderson and John Parry, also slated for Wednesday night, in fact saw Parry acclaimed with Henderson stepping down to take care of some family concerns. An accountant by training and christian by faith, Parry represented the former riding of Kenora-Rainy River from 1984-1988, subsequently ran for the party several times in Manitoba between 2000 and 2002 and has since relocated to Saskatchewan for work, unsuccessfully running for the nomination in this riding last time around, after having been nominated here for the 2005 election scare (which Belinda Stronach and Chuck Strahl Cadman [D'oh: sorry about that, Mr. Strahl] spared the country) but then stepping down for work reasons. I'm betting he is also the only University of Western Ontario MBA to have joined the Facebook group "Let George Gallaway speak". Parry will be running against long-time Conservative M.P. Maurice Vellacott, with Liberal and Green candidates yet to be chosen.
• Hochelaga, QC - There's a new blog covering by-election news (welcome, and thanks for the link yesterday), and it's reporting tonight that Gilles Duceppe's chosen candidate, former PQ Industry Minister, Daniel Paillé, did indeed win the Bloc Québécois nomination in this by-election riding Thursday, October 8. He'll be joining NDP candidate Jean-Claude Rocheleau, whose campaign office will be opened by leader Jack Layton tomorrow night, Conservative candidate Stéphanie Cloutier, whose campaign kick-off the other day was aided by Conservative Senator Claude Carignan, and recently-named Liberal candidate Robert David, who made quite a memorable entry into the campaign, according to Le Devoir (via Deux Maudits Anglais at Macleans.ca). Here's a question readers could perhaps help us out with: is this Mr. Paillé in any way related to first-term Louis-Hébert Bloc M.P. Pascal-Pierre Paillé? If you know, please drop us a line. UPDATE: La Presse Canadienne writes that Paillé "easily" won the meeting, and has Duceppe's office denying Jean Baribeau's claims that they phoned and asked him to withdraw. FURTHER UPDATE: Daniel Paillé is Pascal-Pierre Paillé's uncle, a reader writes to let us know. Cool. Thanks.
  

If it's starting to sound like a lot of NDP nomination news lately, and less from the other parties, it seems to be because the party made a big push to get key nominations completed once their convention was concluded. One of the analyses I'll be preparing (hopefully over the weekend), now that I've just about got the nominations database up-to-date, is the number of nominations by week, by party. I think that chart will show more clearly the different time-frames in which different parties have been active on that score, over what many believed would be a pre-election period.

Anyway there is other nomination news from across the country, but as it's well past my bedtime here, it will have to wait until tomorrow night. As you may have noticed, it's not just the nomination news that's starting to slow down these days ;-). Bring on the long weekend, I say.

Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Bloc Québécois, Greens, Hochelaga, Liberals, NDP, Nov 9 2009 By-elections