Here are a few news items from the by-elections that aren't being covered elsewhere, but may be of interest to readers:

• If the Bloc Québécois' Nancy Gagnon is elected in Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, QC next Monday, she will be part of the second married couple to sit in the House of Commons right now, and the third one ever. Gagnon's spouse is Bloc House Leader Pierre Paquette, M.P. for Joliette on the north shore. They would join NDP Leader Jack Layton and his partner Olivia Chow who represent neighbouring Toronto ridings, and follow in the footsteps of Conservative M.P.s Gurmant and Nina Grewal both from Surrey, BC (only Ms. Grewal is still sitting in the Commons). Notwithstanding these precedents, however, the other week Conservative candidate Bernard Généreux questioned how much time, in the face of Gagnon's situation, she might be able to devote to her own constituents.
  
  The two have been sparring over numerous issues, including the post office in La Pocatière, government support for forestry workers, EI reform, the impact of "Buy American" on contracts for Bombardier, and the involvement of former Bloc M.P. Paul Crête in obtaining federal government funding for the area. Généreux has accused Gagnon of "demagoguery"; she's asked him to apologize for denying Crête's role in obtaining some federal funds (she later produced an ad in which he had earlier congratulated Crête for his role, but I wish I could find that clipping again now ;-)); and he's said her accusation about Bombardier was "scandalous". I guess this is what we call a "hotly contested" race.
  
  
• Meantime, with the hotly contested Montréal municipal elections out of the way, the race in Hochelaga has also heated way up, with a pretty frontal assault launched by the NDP Tuesday morning on Bloc Québécois candidate Daniel Paillé's progressive credentials and the extent of his ties to the riding he's running in. The party unveiled a website highlighting aspects of Paillé's past, both in government and the private sector, and tied it to a street poster campaign, featuring a blue cheque with a Conservative logo made out to Paillé, in reference to his work during the last Parliament for former Conservative Minister Michel Fortier on the awarding of opinion research contracts in the federal government. Duceppe and Paillé had scheduled a news conference for Tuesday morning to discuss the Port of Montréal. I haven't seen any coverage of their reaction to the NDP's attacks, as most stories focused instead on Duceppe's refusal to dine with the Royals.
  
  
• Elections Canada has released Advance Voting numbers for the four ridings. I've crunched the numbers below, but early voting interest appears highest in Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, NS and lowest in Hochelaga, QC (probably not surprising, given the much greater interest in municipal politics there in the last few weeks).

Riding	2009 By Electors	2009 By Adv.	2008 GE Electors	2008 GE Adv.
CCMV	67,789	3,397 (5.0% of electorate)	68,831	3,726 (5.4%)
MIKR	77,886	3,092 (4.0%)	78,377	3,931 (5.0%)
'Chlag	78,260	1,829 (2.3%)	79,542	4,184 (5.3%)
NWC	82,226	3,075 (3.7%)	80,755	4,576 (5.7%)

Labels: Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, Hochelaga, Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, New Westminster – Coquitlam, Nov 9 2009 By-elections

[UPDATE: See below for story from La Presse Canadienne on Hochelaga Bloc nomination.]

Switching back from by-election coverage to the non-byelection nomination news, we have a last spurt of nominations to cover, after which it appears that things are slowing down for the fall. Many fewer meetings are scheduled for the coming weeks, and I'm hearing unconfirmed reports that other meetings and announcements are being delayed. Blogger tcnorris is arguing tonight that the announcement of the royal visit and the calling of the byelections signals that the Prime Minister is unlikely to try and engineer his own defeat this fall, and I think that's probably about right.

Indeed, if the election window drags out longer than that, we may start to see the opposition phenomenon .... candidates dropping out because the timing turns bad for them, and MPs with long service deciding to sit out the next campaign after all.

Personally, I'm looking forward to the break so we can return to some other analyses around here that got crowded out by the onslaught of nomination news. So, let's get down to it now, starting with candidates who have been selected recently:

• Leeds – Grenville, ON - The NDP has renominated its 2008 candidate in this riding, Brockville and District Labour Council president Steve Armstrong this past week. Meantime, the Green Party now has a three-way nomination race on the go, with a meeting set for Thursday, October 15 as we've already reported here. Armstrong and the winner of the Green contest will be joining recently nominated Liberal candidate Marjory Loveys, and three-term Conservative M.P. Gord Brown on the campaign trail.
  
• Oak Ridges – Markham, ON - NDP - Three-time NDP candidate in neighbouring Markham – Unionville, Janice Hagen, was nominated last Friday, October 2 in her new riding. She will now face first-time Conservative M.P. Paul Calandra, and former Liberal M.P. Lui Temelkovski.
  
• Miramichi, NB - As we quickly reported last weekend, Keith Vickers, and former aide to the former Liberal M.P. for this riding, Charlie Hubbard, won the 3-way contested nomination in this riding last Saturday, October 3. According to the Miramichi Leader, which ran down the details of the ballotting, Vickers won on the second ballot, with some 650 members voting in a room of 800, telling the crowd afterwards that the seat is "ours and we're going to take it back". If they do, it will be from first-time Conservative M.P. Tilly O'Neill-Gordon.
  
• Essex, ON - The NDP renominated three-time candidate Taras Natyshak this past Saturday, reported the Amherstburg Echo. Natyshak be will facing two-time Conservative M.P. Jeff Watson for the third straight contest, with a new Liberal face, Kingsville Mayor Nelson Santos, joining the race alongside first-time Green Party candidate Cora Carriveau. The riding has been held by all 3 major parties since 1984. The NDP's Steven Langdon won the former riding of Essex-Windsor in 1984, on the retirement of long-time (and colourful) former Liberal M.P. Eugene Whelan. Langdon held the seat for two terms, losing alongside many NDP incumbents in 1993 to first-time Liberal M.P.s, in this case Whelan's daughter Susan. She then held the seat for 3 terms, but lost to Watson in 2004, and after trying twice more to regain it, ruled herself out of the Liberal nomination this time. The riding has been a 3-way race in two of the last three elections, but historically has seen everything from crushing Liberal victories under Whelan Sr., to a third-place finish for his successor. And unlike many ridings in which the NDP did much worse in the elections of 1993 and 2000, that party never dropped below 14%, and have scored as high as 44%. Conservatives posted a record low of 14% in the Free Trade election of 1988, but scored as high as 40% 20 years later. The riding has a combination of agriculture and folks dependent on the auto sector, and surrounds the city of Windsor. I think it's going to make for an interesting window into how Ontario goes in the next election.
  
• Haldimand – Norfolk, ON - Also on Saturday, the NDP renominated 2008 candidate Ian Nichols by acclamation in this rural southwestern Ontario riding, currently held by three-term Conservative M.P. Diane Finley, and also being contested by former Liberal M.P. Bob Speller and first-time Green candidate Anne Faulkner. Local NDP members are noting that this marks the first time they've had the same candidate run more than once for them in this riding. Meanwhile, Speller recently picked up the endorsement of a former prime minister, as Paul Martin recently visited Brantford in support of his campaign.
  
• Davenport, ON - Calling it "just like a gig, but with a tie", musician and member of the band "The Skydiggers" Andrew Cash accepted the NDP nomination in the Toronto riding of Davenport on Monday, October 5 before a room of several hundred who were treated to live music alongside the usual speeches, including leader Jack Layton, M.P. Charlie Angus, and most of the band Blue Rodeo, according to one tweeter in attendance. Cash will be facing three-term Liberal M.P. Mario Silva, who has won the riding with 46%-52% of the vote each time. The NDP has been able to post a 30-32% vote share since the forced retirement of long-time Liberal M.P. Charles Caccia in 2004, before which they earned 14-18%. Conservative candidates typically score around 10-12% in the riding, and a strong Green candidate in 2008, bike courier activist Wayne Scott, came in just behind them. Traditionally considered the home of the Portuguese community, the MediaStyle.ca blog reports that Davenport has been changing demographically in recent years to include "a growing core 'creative class'", and indeed the riding ranked 14th in the country in the 2006 census for employment in art, culture, recreation and sport, even if that does represent just 7.15% of its population.
  
• Burlington, ON - As well on Monday night, child protection worker and NDPer David Laird was renominated his party's candidate for the 4th time in this riding just outside Hamilton. He will join two-term Conservative M.P. Mike Wallace and Liberal candidate Bruce Bowser, who ran in Wellington – Halton Hills in 2008. Here's a riding where the NDP and Green vote did not change much between 2004 and 2008, but the seat changed hands strictly on the exchange of Liberal and Conservative votes. It was close in 2004 when Wallace nearly overtook former Liberal M.P. Paddy Torsney, and again in 2006 when he finally did, but by 2008 Wallace was able retain his raw vote, while the Liberal vote apparently stayed home as turnout fell.
  
• Barrie, ON - Another return NDP candidate, Myrna Clark, was renominated by acclamation in this riding northwest of Toronto on Wednesday, October 7, according to the Barrie Examiner. Clark will rejoin three-time Conservative M.P. Patrick Brown, and three-time Green Party candidate Erich Jacoby-Hawkins, and a Liberal to be named later. Again, the NDP vote has stayed within a range of 10-12% here since 2004, with the Greens growing somewhat, but unlike Burlington, the Liberal vote here plummetted by around 10,000 votes between 2006 and 2008, with the Conservatives picking up about 4,000 of them, the Greens another 2,000 and the rest staying home as turnout fell. Thanks to a reader for supplying the clipping.
  
• Simcoe – Grey, ON - Thanks to a reader for sending along this clipping from the Wasaga Sun, reporting the nomination by acclamation of Green Party candidate Stuart Starbuck, also on Wednesday. Realtor Phil Baldwin had earlier been planning to contest the nomination, but withdrew citing work conditions. Starbuck, a former municipal councillor, will now join three-time Conservative M.P. Helena Guergis, returning Liberal candidate Andrea Matrosovs, and two-time NDP candidate Katy Austin, who was also recently acclaimed on September 28.
  
• Saskatoon – Wanuskewin, SK - Another reader wrote in to say that the expected contested NDP nomination in this riding between Barb Henderson and John Parry, also slated for Wednesday night, in fact saw Parry acclaimed with Henderson stepping down to take care of some family concerns. An accountant by training and christian by faith, Parry represented the former riding of Kenora-Rainy River from 1984-1988, subsequently ran for the party several times in Manitoba between 2000 and 2002 and has since relocated to Saskatchewan for work, unsuccessfully running for the nomination in this riding last time around, after having been nominated here for the 2005 election scare (which Belinda Stronach and Chuck Strahl Cadman [D'oh: sorry about that, Mr. Strahl] spared the country) but then stepping down for work reasons. I'm betting he is also the only University of Western Ontario MBA to have joined the Facebook group "Let George Gallaway speak". Parry will be running against long-time Conservative M.P. Maurice Vellacott, with Liberal and Green candidates yet to be chosen.
• Hochelaga, QC - There's a new blog covering by-election news (welcome, and thanks for the link yesterday), and it's reporting tonight that Gilles Duceppe's chosen candidate, former PQ Industry Minister, Daniel Paillé, did indeed win the Bloc Québécois nomination in this by-election riding Thursday, October 8. He'll be joining NDP candidate Jean-Claude Rocheleau, whose campaign office will be opened by leader Jack Layton tomorrow night, Conservative candidate Stéphanie Cloutier, whose campaign kick-off the other day was aided by Conservative Senator Claude Carignan, and recently-named Liberal candidate Robert David, who made quite a memorable entry into the campaign, according to Le Devoir (via Deux Maudits Anglais at Macleans.ca). Here's a question readers could perhaps help us out with: is this Mr. Paillé in any way related to first-term Louis-Hébert Bloc M.P. Pascal-Pierre Paillé? If you know, please drop us a line. UPDATE: La Presse Canadienne writes that Paillé "easily" won the meeting, and has Duceppe's office denying Jean Baribeau's claims that they phoned and asked him to withdraw. FURTHER UPDATE: Daniel Paillé is Pascal-Pierre Paillé's uncle, a reader writes to let us know. Cool. Thanks.
  

If it's starting to sound like a lot of NDP nomination news lately, and less from the other parties, it seems to be because the party made a big push to get key nominations completed once their convention was concluded. One of the analyses I'll be preparing (hopefully over the weekend), now that I've just about got the nominations database up-to-date, is the number of nominations by week, by party. I think that chart will show more clearly the different time-frames in which different parties have been active on that score, over what many believed would be a pre-election period.

Anyway there is other nomination news from across the country, but as it's well past my bedtime here, it will have to wait until tomorrow night. As you may have noticed, it's not just the nomination news that's starting to slow down these days ;-). Bring on the long weekend, I say.

Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Bloc Québécois, Greens, Hochelaga, Liberals, NDP, Nov 9 2009 By-elections

[Welcome National Newswatch readers!]

A candidate for the Bloc Québécois nomination is accusing leader Gilles Duceppe's office of trying to pressure him to drop out of the race, in advance of tomorrow night's contested nomination meeting to pick the party's candidate for next month's by-election in this east-end Montréal riding, reports Kathleen Levesque of Le Devoir this afternoon. The report has sparked the NDP's candidate to ask why the Bloc would "borrow the strategies of the Liberal Party" and whether this represents the "Coderrisation du Bloc québécois".

25-year Hochelaga resident and "confirmed sovereignist and social democrat", Jean Baribeau, has been running for the Bloc nomination since June. He told Le Devoir that he received a telephone call from a staff member in Duceppe's office Tuesday morning asking him to step aside, saying they wanted the Thursday meeting to be a big media event introducing Duceppe's endorsed candidate and recently-appointed economic advisor, former PQ Industry Minister Daniel Paillé.

Citing Duceppe's commitment of last month to hold an open nomination, Baribeau is refusing to stand down, and now refusing to return the calls of Duceppe himself, complaining that the Bloc has already been introducing Paillé as their candidate, and that they've sent in an experienced Bloc organizer to run his nomination campaign. Another nomination candidate, Benoît Dumuy, who was an aide to the former Bloc M.P. in the riding, Réal Ménard, and who had also been selling memberships since June, was already persuaded by Duceppe in early September to withdraw from the race, and a fourth reported candidate Thérèse Ste-Marie also appears to be out of the race now. SMALL UPDATE: Indeed, she has withdrawn and endorsed M. Paillé, according to Les Nouvelles Hochelaga Maisonneuve, which unfortunately however got the nomination date wrong at the end of its story.

Meanwhile the NDP's Jean-Claude Rocheleau, who was renominated in August, issued a news release this afternoon "extending a hand to Bloquistes who are upset" about the "less than democratic practices" of their party, and also chiding the Liberals for "le parachutage dans Hochelaga d’un économiste de Harvard".

The seat became vacant on the resignation of Ménard this past September 16, 2009 in order to run as borough mayor in Hochelaga during the Québec municipal elections that are now underway. The Prime Minister called the by-election this past Sunday for Monday, November 9. The Bloc's candidate will be the last one selected by the major parties in this riding.

We earlier reported on another case of a Bloc nomination candidate, Christian Gionet, who felt the party maneuvred him out of its nomination race in Haute-Gaspésie – La Mitis – Matane – Matapédia, QC, in favour of the leader's preferred candidate Jean-François Fortin last June.

While most media commentators have assumed the Bloc to be the likely winners in Hochelaga, it will be interesting to see whether this nomination race is little more than a distraction, such as the challenge Green Party leader Elizabeth May fought off last month, or whether (as the NDP appears to hope) it represents the opening of schism in the Bloc Québécois riding association.

One way to follow the race there that I've discovered is the Politics news page of Les Nouvelles Hochelaga Maissonneuve.

Labels: Bloc Québécois, Hochelaga, NDP, Nov 9 2009 By-elections

After a bit of digging, and with a little help from our friends, I've been able to collect a bit more news about who'll be running in the by-election ridings in Québec.

• Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, QC - Liberals announced today that, as expected, retiring Cap-Saint-Ignace mayor Marcel Catellier will be their candidate for the by-election. Mr. Catellier was appointed today, and will be introduced to the media by former candidate Jean Bouchard on Thursday morning, reports InfoDimanche.com. The NDP was to introduce its acclaimed candidate, literacy worker François Lapointe, tonight, with Leader Jack Layton and deputy leader Thomas Mulcair on hand, but I haven't seen any coverage as yet. The Greens are expecting to announce their candidate soon, I'm told. Meanwhile Conservative candidate Bernard Généreux launched his campaign earlier today, reports Radio-Canada.
  
• Hochelaga, QC - The Liberals announced Harvard grad and university prof Robert David as their candidate for Hochelaga about an hour ago. The economist, who is also active in international development work, was appointed this evening by Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff. Meanwhile, Conservative candidate Stéphanie Cloutier now has a website up and running. I haven't been able to ascertain the date or status of her nomination (acclaimed, appointed, won a contested nomination, etc.), so if anyone knows please get in touch. The Bloc Québécois has scheduled its contested nomination meeting for Thursday, October 8, according to the Bloc website's events calendar. Math teacher Jean Baribeau, who calls himself a "confirmed sovereigntist and social democrat", will challenge Gilles Duceppe's hand-picked candidate and newly appointed economic advisor, a former PQ Industry Minister and École des Hautes Études Commercials prof, Daniel Paillé. The Greens have named plumber/fitter Christine Lebel as their candidate, but again I'm still waiting to hear the date on which she was selected, and the nomination type. NDP candidate Jean-Claude Rocheleau's campaign claimed they were ready to go and on the streets within hours of the by-election being called, according to a news release issued by his campaign earlier today.

If you have by-election news to share, in either language, why not drop us a note to pass it along.

Labels: Hochelaga, Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, Nov 9 2009 By-elections

There's a fair bit of news to catch up on in the likely by-election ridings today, starting on the east coast:

• Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, NS - We earlier reported that there would be a contested NDP nomination here on Thursday, September 24. However events have continued to unfold, according to the Babble thread on the riding, with the result that 2008 candidate Karen Olsson has decided to withdraw and support wild blueberry farmer and Truro town sustainability coordinator, Mark Austin, who is now expected to be acclaimed at a rescheduled nomination meeting on Wednesday, September 30. Meantime, the Green Party acclaimed addictions counsellor and substitute teacher Jason Blanch as their candidate on Tuesday, September 1. Thanks to the GPC for contacting us with this information. With Austin's nomination for the NDP, the riding will have a full slate in place, at least so far as the major parties are concerned. The by-election here must be called by Tuesday, October 31 at the latest, for a date on or after Monday, December 9.
• Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, QC - New Democrats in this riding have scheduled a nomination meeting for Tuesday, October 6, a reader writes to advise. No further details are available for the moment, however. The recently nominated Conservative candidate, Bernard Généreux, notes that a by-election must be called here by Tuesday, October 13, and believes that, if elected, he will then have about six months to prove himself before the next general election which he expects to occur in the spring of 2010, reports InfoDimanche.com. The seat became vacant on the resignation of long-time Bloc Québécois M.P. Paul Crête, who tried unsuccessfully this spring to win the provincial seat opened up by the resignation of ADQ leader Mario Dumont. Crête then withdrew his name for consideration as the Bloc nominee for the by-election, and has since announced he will host a show on a local Kamouraska TV station. Meanwhile, Marcel Catellier, the retiring mayor of Cap-Saint-Ignace, is confirming rumours that he has been approached by Liberal Party officials to consider running, but tells Le Peuple Cote Sud that he hasn't made any decisions about his future as yet. No Green Party candidate has surfaced as yet in this riding. Bloc Québécois candidate Nancy Gagnon is expected to be acclaimed tomorrow (Sunday, September 27). The by-election must be called here by no later than Wednesday, November 18, for a date on or after Monday, December 29.
  
• Hochelaga, QC - While one prospective Bloc Québécois nomination candidate has stepped aside in favour of Bloc Leader Gilles Duceppe's preferred candidate, Daniel Paillé, another one is not going anywhere, reports Les Nouvelles Hochelaga-Maissonneuve. Former aide to former Bloc M.P. Réal Ménard, Benoît Demuy, had been selling memberships since June, but after meeting with Duceppe on September 4, decided to withdraw from the race. Not so for Jean Baribeau, a 25-year resident of the riding and math teacher who describes himself as a "sovereignist and confirmed social democrat" who "has politics in his blood" and thinks people in his community don't want a "parachute candidate". Baribeau had been seeking a meeting with Duceppe all summer while he was selling membership cards, he says, but never got any reply. Meanwhile the Bloc has brought in veteran organizer Patrick Marais to help Paillé with his nomination campaign, according to Le Devoir. Thus there will be at least two candidates for the Bloc nomination meeting, whenever it is held. No word on any prospective Liberal, Conservative or Green candidates as yet, but nominated NDP candidate Jean-Claude Rocheleau has evidently been following the Bloc race, and recently highlighted his own local roots to Les Nouvelles as well.

The Hochelaga by-election can be called as early as this Tuesday, September 29 while the New Westminster – Coquitlam, BC by-election must be called before Tuesday, October 13 (and the New Westminster News Leader reports that all the candidates there are "ready to go"). Thus we will be having at least two and as many as four by-elections this autumn, which could still be eclipsed by a general election, should the government fall in the meantime.

So far, the NDP has a 2 nominated candidates and 2 scheduled nomination meetings; while the Conservatives are nominated in 3/4 ridings, but have no scheduled meeting as yet in the 4th. The Bloc is set to go in one Québec riding, and has a contested but still unscheduled nomination on its hands in the other. The Liberals and Greens are both apparently ready in the 2 ridings outside Québec, and the Liberals appear to have a prospect in one of the Québec ridings. Finally, the Christian Heritage Party will be running its new leader in the Nova Scotia seat.

As soon as the by-elections are called, I'll be moving the Pundits' Guide website into by-election mode, meaning that we'll be tracking the by-elections at the top of the main page, and moving the general election nominations off to the "Search the Database" page (see "Queries for Most Recent Election") for the duration.

Labels: Bloc Québécois, Conservatives, Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, Greens, Hochelaga, Liberals, Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, NDP

Further to my earlier post describing the process, the Chief Electoral Officer has now received the notice of vacancy from the Speaker, and has started the clock, so that:

• the earliest the Hochelaga, QC by-election can be called is Tuesday, September 29 for an election on or after Monday, November 9
• the last day the New Westminster – Coquitlam, BC by-election can be called is Tuesday, October 13 for an election on or after Monday, November 23

Unless the PM wants to call two sets of by-elections so as not to overlap at all with the Québec municipal elections (voting day is Sunday, November 1), the window for calling all 4 by-elections at once starts on the first Tuesday after the House of Commons returns from its mandated one-week break.

See the table below for the revised dates for all the vacant seats.

	Hoch	MIKR	CCMV	NWC
Date of resignation:	Wed Sep 16, 2009	Thu May 21, 2009	Thu Apr 30, 2009	Mon Apr 13, 2009
Date Speaker's warrant received by CEO:	Fri Sep 18, 2009	Fri May 22, 2009	Mon May 4, 2009	Thu Apr 16, 2009
Earliest date the by-election could be called (11 days later):	Tue Sep 29, 2009	Tue June 2, 2009	Fri May 15, 2009	Mon Apr 27, 2009
Earliest date the by-election could be held (first Monday at least 36 days after that):	Mon Nov 9, 2009	Mon Jul 13, 2009	Mon Jun 22, 2009	Mon Jun 8, 2009
Latest date the by-election could be called (180 days later):	Wed Mar 17, 2010	Wed Nov 18, 2009	Sat Oct 31, 2009	Tue Oct 13, 2009
Latest date the by-election could be held (first Monday at least 36 - [no maximum] days later, or the next non-Statuatory holiday):	on or after Mon Apr 26, 2010	on or after Tue Dec 29, 2009	on or after Mon Dec 7, 2009	on or after Mon Nov 23, 2009

Again, this would put voting day somewhere between November 9 and 23, assuming a 36 day campaign. However as campaigns can be longer than 36 days, we don't know exactly when voting day will occur, only when the call must occur in order for them to be called together.

Labels: Hochelaga, Vacant Seats

A new vacancy occurred in the House of Commons yesterday when, as expected, long-time Bloc Québcois M.P. Réal Ménard resigned his Hochelaga, QC seat to run in the forthcoming Montréal municipal elections.

The process now is for the Speaker to notify the Chief Electoral Officer of the vacancy, the receipt of which is usually signalled by a news release from Elections Canada (although none had been posted at time of writing). Between 11 and 180 days after that, the Prime Minister must call a by-election.

Now, there has been a lot of confusion on the rules governing this issue in the past day or so, because people are not familiar with the provisions of the Elections Act. I admit that until I started this website, there was one I was not familiar with either. So, let's review the process:

• The Member resigns.
• The Commons Speaker sends a notice of the vacancy to the Chief Electoral Officer (CEO).
  
• The CEO announces receipt of that notice via an Elections Canada news release, and starts the clock on when the by-election must be called.
  
• Between 11 and 180 days after the clock is started, the Prime Minister must call the by-election, which must be held at least 36 days afterwards (but could in fact be held much further down the road), so long as voting day falls on a Monday (or a Tuesday if the preceding Monday were a statuatory holiday). There is no maximum time placed on the length of the campaign period, only a minimum time of 36 days.
  
• The CEO issues a writ to the Returning Officer in the affected riding, launching the by-election.
  
• The CEO announces the spending limits for the candidates.
• The parties nominate or select candidates according to their own process.
• The candidates must then be nominated with Elections Canada according to the provisions of the Elections Act, prior to the deadline of E-21 (i.e., 21 days before voting day) at 2:00 p.m. local-time. If they are running under the banner of a political party, they must present a leader letter containing that party leader's endorsement at the same time.
  
• A candidate may withdraw before E-21 at 5:00 p.m. local-time. If a candidate withdraws after that time, her/his name will still remain on the ballot. If a candidate who has been endorsed by a political party withdraws between 2:00 p.m. and 5:00 p.m. local-time on E-21, the political party has no further chance to field a candidate. If a candidate withdraws before 2:00 p.m. local-time, the political party still has a chance to nominate and endorse another candidate, so long as it is done before 2:00 p.m. local-time.
• The CEO announces the spending limits for the registered parties who are running candidates in that riding (or set of ridings).
  
• By-election voting takes place at advance polls and on voting day.
  
• Preliminary counts take place, followed by the validated results, and any judicial recounts that may be required.
• The writ is returned and the CEO so advises the Commons Speaker.
• The new M.P. is sworn in.
• The official count is tabulated and released somewhat later, as are the candidate financial returns.

So given that there are now 4 vacant seats, each with different clocks, what are the likely dates for by-election calls assuming the Prime Minister would like to synchronize the calls? Well, it would have to come sometime *after* the first day for calling Hochelaga, QC (estimated to fall around Sunday, September 27), but still *before* the last day for calling New Westminster – Coquitlam, BC (Tuesday, October 13), as follows:

	Hoch	MIKR	CCMV	NWC
Date of resignation:	Wed Sep 16, 2009	Thu May 21, 2009	Thu Apr 30, 2009	Mon Apr 13, 2009
Date Speaker's warrant received by CEO:	<unk.>	Fri May 22, 2009	Mon May 4, 2009	Thu Apr 16, 2009
Earliest date the by-election could be called (11 days later):	[est.] Sun Sep 27, 2009	Tue June 2, 2009	Fri May 15, 2009	Mon Apr 27, 2009
Earliest date the by-election could be held (first Monday at least 36 days after that):	[est.] Mon Nov 2, 2009	Mon Jul 13, 2009	Mon Jun 22, 2009	Mon Jun 8, 2009
Latest date the by-election could be called (180 days later):	[est.] Mon Mar 15, 2010	Wed Nov 18, 2009	Sat Oct 31, 2009	Tue Oct 13, 2009
Latest date the by-election could be held (first Monday at least 36 - [no maximum] days later, or the next non-Statuatory holiday):	[est.] on or after Mon Apr 26, 2010	on or after Tue Dec 29, 2009	on or after Mon Dec 7, 2009	on or after Mon Nov 23, 2009

This would put voting day somewhere between November 2 and 23, assuming a 36 day campaign. However as campaigns can be longer than 36 days, we don't know exactly when voting day will occur, only when the call must occur in order for them to be called together.

Now, the Quebec municipal elections will occur on November 1, 2009 this year. Assuming one would not want to run federal by-elections concurrently with these municipal elections, we could see all four by-election calls come towards the end of this window, or else the P.M. may decide to call just the first two by-elections now, and leave the two Québec ones for later on.

However we will know one way or the other by October 13, as that is the last day the call for New Westminster – Coquitlam, BC can come. And the earliest we would hear anything is the weekend before the House returns on Monday, September 28.

Labels: Hochelaga, Vacant Seats

We'll have some news later today from both coasts, and a lot of action in Québec to report on. For now, we'll start in the riding that was the subject of controversy late last week, and which will soon be vacant:

• Hochelaga, QC - I think I now understand where the confusion came from here. Joël-Denis Bellavance of La Presse had reported last week that Bloc Québécois leader Gilles Duceppe was set to appoint former PQ Industry Minister and École des Hautes Études Commerciales (HEC) business professor Daniel Paillé as the Bloc "star" candidate in this east-end Montréal riding about to be vacated by long-time Bloc M.P. Réal Ménard in his bid for a seat on Montréal City Council. The rumoured appointment created a bit of a backlash amongst the local Bloc riding association, given that three candidates had been actively seeking the nomination since June. Friday Duceppe cleared matters up by appointing Paillé as his "economic advisor" and endorsing him for the Hochelaga nomination, but confirming that a nomination meeting would take place as is the Bloc's normal process. No date has been set for that meeting that I've determined yet. Also running will be Ménard's former assistant Benoît Dumuy, as we reported earlier, along with long-time Bloc activist Jean Baribeau and Thérèse Ste-Marie, of the "Corporation de développement de l'Est". The NDP re-nominated its 2008 candidate, party Québec co-president and east-end refinery workers CEP local president, Jean-Claude Rocheleau, a month ago. Paillé delivered his first piece of economic advice about the HST in a post on the Blogue Québécois later on Friday.
  
• Papineau, QC - Saying she "never really left the riding", former one-term Bloc Québécois M.P. and current party vice-president Vivian Barbot has announced that she plans to run for re-election against first-term Liberal M.P. Justin Trudeau, who defeated her by 2.8% of the vote last year. Once considered a safe Liberal seat in its former incarnation of Papineau – Saint-Denis, QC, the new riding has been a hotly contested Liberal-Bloc race settled by margins of under 3% in each of the last 3 elections.
• Portneuf – Jacques-Cartier, QC - Looks like I had the incorrect date for the Bloc nomination meeting here. It will take place tonight (Wednesday, September 8) and not Sunday, September 6 as earlier listed. Richard Côté is expected to be acclaimed for a second run at two-term Independent M.P. André Arthur, and is also calling on the Conservatives to run a candidate in that riding this time.
  

That's all I have time for this morning, but later today I'll report on 9 new Conservative candidates in Québec and 2 more from Ontario, along with 3 more Liberal nomination meetings that have been called, a list of Green Party nominations and some other news across the country.

If you have some nomination news to share, why not get in touch with the Pundits' Guide and I'll pass it along. Then follow all the latest on Twitter.

Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Bloc Québécois, Hochelaga

I'm on cottage-time here, where everything moves a little more slowly in the nomination news department. However, as things have really piled up and a few significant nominations have occurred over the past few days, it's time for me to smarten up and get with it; starting with the most recent nominations in the prospective by-election seats:

• Hochelaga, QC - The NDP did, as expected, renominate their 2008 candidate Jean-Claude Rocheleau here on Monday. Rocheleau is the president of the east island refinery workers' local of the CEP, and embodies the NDP's continuing efforts to encroach on the Bloc Québecois' support in the Québec labour movement. The riding is currently represented by long-time Bloc M.P. Réal Ménard, who has announced that he will be resigning effective Wednesday September 16 (the first caucus meeting of the fall sitting of Parliament), in order to run for Montréal city council in the municipal elections taking place this November 1. A political scientist, Ménard has won the riding handily since 1993 when he defeated one-term Conservative M.P. Alan Koury (who himself replaced one-term Conservative M.P. Edouard Désrosiers in 1988). Prior to 1984 the riding was represented by then-Liberal M.P. (and current Liberal Senator) Serge Joyal.
• New Westminster – Coquitlam, BC - Ken Beck Lee won the contested Liberal nomination over Gerry Lenoski here last night, according to the LeftCoast.ca blog. Curiously (well to me, anyway), voting was conducted without the benefit of candidate speeches (although as my partner has pointed out to me before, politicos like political speeches a LOT more than pretty much the rest of the voting public, so what do I know). Lee is a civil engineer and member of the Korean Cultural Heritage Society of Canada, and is a first-time candidate for the Liberal Party. The BC federal Liberal association had earlier set up a byelectionbc.ca website, with biographies of both candidates. More background here from the Burnaby Politics blog, where a commenter claims that Lee had signed up 1000 members, although a reader tells me that there were around 380 ballots cast last night. The riding was vacated by three-term NDP M.P. Dawn Black (one of them from 1988-1993, not yet in this database), who stepped down to run provincially in the spring, after defeating Korean-Canadian Conservative candidate (and now-Senator) Yonah Martin in the last general election. Already nominated are the NDP's Fin Donnelly, Rebecca Helps for the Green Party, and most recently Diana Dilworth for the Conservatives.
• Windsor – Tecumseh, ON - Thanks to a reader for writing to confirm that the Conservative riding association here renominated Ms. Ghanam by acclamation last June 5, after conducting their candidate search process in May. Ms. Ghanam is a management consultant and lecturer in the business school at the University of Windsor. She captured second place in 2008 against the NDP's four-term M.P. Joe Comartin, moving ahead of the Liberals in this riding once held by the late Liberal M.P. Shaughnessy Cohen.
• Markham – Unionville, ON - Long-time Markham city councillor Gordon Landon was acclaimed last Thursday as the Conservative candidate in this riding north of Toronto, the Georgina Advocate reports. The first-time federal candidate will be facing four-term Liberal M.P. John McCallum, who has won the riding handily since the 2000 election, when he replaced the then-lone Ontario Progressive Conservative M.P. Jim Jones.
  
• Halton, ON - Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff has appointed businesswoman Deborah Gillis as his candidate here, according to a weekend Liberal news release, and interestingly has done so over the heads of two green-lighted candidates (Air Canada pilot Rohit Dhamija and George Brown College VOIP professor Sheref El Sabawy) and one other prospective candidate (former provincial Liberal candidate Gary Zemlak), as noted on the Liberal Scarf blog citing a recent story from the Oakville Beaver. As blogger Will Norman observes: "Gillis was mentioned nowhere in the article, which was written on July 31st .... The article contains a quote by the riding President that is very interesting in light of Gillis being appointed: 'Riding association president Steve Savage said there is no hurry to settle on a candidate as there is no election on the horizon'. Evidently Ignatieff must see at least the shape of an election on the horizon, unless he wouldn't have appointed a candidate (which I believe is the first time Ignatieff has used the leader's power to appoint, but I might be mistaken.)". I haven't seen any other reports of Mr. Ignatieff appointing candidates either, and believe Mr. Norman is correct in that observation. Meanwhile, former Conservative-turned-Liberal Halton M.P. Garth Turner was not amongst Liberal candidates seeking to be green-lighted according to Ontario Federal Liberal executive director Judi Longfield, as quoted in the Oakville Beaver story, but blogger Norman believes that the Dufferin – Caledon, ON rumour we reported on earlier for Turner might still be viable.
  
• Newmarket – Aurora, ON - The same Liberal news release touted other women candidates including lawyer and King Township Mayor Margaret Black who it says will be acclaimed on August 12 in this riding north of Toronto. As pointed out by the Liberal Scarf, this means that nomination candidate and Newmarket councillor Chris Emanuel must have dropped out of the race quite recently, as all evidence pointed to his continuing to run as of when the release was issued. We earlier reported on his candidacy here, along with the withdrawal of 2008 Liberal candidate Tim Jones in favour of endorsing Ms. Black. A bit more here from the King Township Sentinel. The riding is currently held by first-time Conservative M.P. Lois Brown, who won it on the retirement from politics of Conservative-turned-Liberal M.P. Belinda Stronach.

The Monday Liberal news release announced four Ontario women candidates in total, including two already reported here some time ago (Christine Innes in Trinity – Spadina, ON and Kimberley Love in Bruce – Grey – Owen Sound, ON). The Toronto Star's Susan Delacourt is also reporting from cottage country on her blog that Green Party Elizabeth May continues to muse on her chances of running in the latter riding as well. By the way, I need to track down the correct spelling of Ms. Love's first name, as the Liberal Party spelled it "ey", while the Meaford Express story from three weeks ago just had it as "y". If anyone can clarify, please drop me a line.

Besides Newmarket – Aurora, ON as mentioned above, a number of other Ontario Liberal nomination meetings have recently been announced on that PTA's website, namely:

• Tue 11 Aug - Thunder Bay – Superior North, ON - 3 candidates contesting (Don McArthur, Yves Fricot, Joe Virdiramo)
  
• Wed 12 Aug - Ancaster – Dundas – Flamborough – Westdale, ON - former CHCH-TV anchor Dan McLean and ?former 2008 candidate Arlene MacFarlane-VanderBeek?
  
• Thu 13 Aug - Chatham-Kent – Essex, ON - a contest pitting the sons of 2 former Liberal MPs: Matt Daudlin and Steve Pickard
  
• Fri 14 Aug - Essex, ON - no information (if you can help, jot me a note)
  

OK, now on to other nomination news:

• Gaspésie – Îles-de-la-Madeleine, QC - Another good catch by the Liberal Scarf blog, who came across a clipping from Le Soleil about Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff's recent trip to the Gaspésie with returning candidate Nancy Charest of neighbouring Haute-Gaspésie – La Mitis – Matane – Matapédia, QC, which also reported Quebec lieutenant Denis Coderre's preference for the return of 2008 Liberal candidate Denis Gauvreau in this riding currently held by two-term Bloc Québécois M.P. Raynald Blais. Gauvreau moved his party back into second-place last time, past former Progressive Conservative M.P. and Conservative candidate Darryl L. Gray.
  
• Richmond – Arthabaska, QC - From La Nouvelle / L'Union in Victoriaville, we learn that Louis Bérubé, the business development manager for the Caisse populaire in l'Érable, will be running for the Liberal nomination here, and has the support of 2008 candidate Gwyneth Helen Grant. Liberal Québec lieutenant Denis Coderre will be attending the nomination meeting next Monday, August 10. The riding is currently held by three-term Bloc Québécois M.P. André Bellavance.
• Ottawa Centre, ON - The NDP has scheduled its nomination meeting here for Monday, September 28. Two-term incumbent NDP M.P. Paul Dewar is expected to run once again. Meantime the Liberal nomination race appears to be down to Scott Bradley and Janet Yale, although no meeting date has been set there yet. The Greens already have 2008 candidate Jennifer Hunter back in place for the next election, and no names or plans have yet surfaced from the Conservatives.
  
• Northumberland – Quinte West, ON - A third candidate has decided to enter the contested Liberal nomination race in this eastern Ontario riding, reports NorthumberlandToday.com. The Mayor of Brighton, (Ms.) Chris Herrington, will be joining Kim Rudd and Andrew McFadyen (previously reported on here). No meeting date has been set to my knowledge. The riding is currently held by two-term Conservative M.P. Rick Norlock, and the Green Party has already nominated its candidate Stan Grizzle.
  
• Welland, ON - Thanks for a reader for pointing out this clipping from the Welland Tribune running down the parties' election preparations in this Niagara-region riding, and reporting the Conservative nomination meeting as set for Thursday, September 17. 2008 candidate Alfred Kiers (who previously ran under the Christian Heritage Party banner in neighbouring Erie – Lincoln, ON in 1997) is apparently set to run for the Conservative nomination once again, but may yet be joined by several others in a contest. Area Liberals have already renominated former long-time M.P. John Maloney. The riding is currently represented by first-time NDP M.P. Malcolm Allen who defeated Maloney in the 2nd closest 3-way race of last fall's general election.
• Esquimalt – Juan de Fuca, BC - According to CFAX-1070AM, area Greens have now opened up nominations in this riding, part of whose provincial equivalent was recently contested by their provincial leader Jane Sterk in the last B.C. election. The riding is currently held by long-time M.P. Keith Martin for the Liberals. Conservatives recently renominated their 2008 candidate Troy deSouza as well. The NDP has yet to pick a candidate in this riding, once held for a term by former NDP premier Dave Barrett, but usually runs strongly as well here, in a riding that's seen more than its share of close 3-way races.
  

In other Green Party nomination news, a reader writes to say that the party had screened 114 candidates by July 31, most in ridings that already have electoral district associations (EDAs) in place.

OK, I think that covers everything for now. If you have nomination news I missed (or sent me any nomination news I forgot to cover, for which I apologize in advance), please do send a note along so I can include it in the next update. Then follow along on Twitter for the latest counts and updates.

Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Conservatives, Greens, Hochelaga, Liberals, NDP, New Westminster – Coquitlam

You'll recall that, further to a motion adopted by the House on the Liberals' last Opposition Day motion in June, the Commons is scheduled to return on Monday, September 14, 2009.

In order to have a by-election held the previous Tuesday, September 8 (the day after Labour Day), it would have had to be called over the weekend.

So, it now seems clear that the three vacant seats won't be filled before Parliament returns, leading us to conclude that the Prime Minister may either be waiting to call them in such a way that the by-election campaigns are on-going during the next confidence vote, or that he is waiting for Hochelaga to become vacant on Wednesday September 16 and call all four at once.

Only New Westminster – Coquitlam, BC has all 4 major party candidates in place, the Liberals selecting theirs yesterday. Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, NS has its Conservative candidate, a Liberal contest under way, and presumably an NDP announcement designed to coincide with their convention down that way soon, plus the possibly that Green Party Leader Elizabeth May could yet enter the race. No-one is yet nominated in Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, QC. And only the NDP has its candidate in place in Hochelaga, QC (see forthcoming nomination news update).

Labels: Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, Hochelaga, Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, New Westminster – Coquitlam, Vacant Seats

Courtesy of a reader, here is a Facebook event for the NDP nomination meeting in the riding about to be vacated by Réal Ménard:

• Hochelaga, QC - NDP Leader Jack Layton will be attending his party's August 3 nomination meeting in this east-end Montréal riding about to be vacated when long-time Bloc Québécois incumbent Réal Ménard resigns for a municipal bid on September 16. Expected to be acclaimed is their 2008 candidate and the president of the east-end refinery workers local of CEP, Jean-Claude Rocheleau. As we previously reported here, New Democrats in this riding have been anticipating Ménard's resignation since February, and are targetting the seat as well as the Bloc's support amongst the Québec labour movement. No word yet on plans by the other parties for nominations, but their candidate recruitment may depend on the outcome of the Québec municipal elections scheduled for November 1.

Once Ménard resigns on September 16, a by-election could theoretically be called as early as Sunday, September 27 for November 2 (assuming the paperwork from the Speaker to the Chief Electoral Office got processed rapidly), or held off as late as a March 15, 2010 call for April 26 or thereafter. In the former case, it could be called together with the 3 other currently vacant seats, so long as it were called before Tuesday, October 13, which would put the date on or before Monday, November 23.

Given that two of the vacant seats will be in Québec, and that Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, QC has to be called by Wednesday, November 18, we could also speculate that there might be two sets of by-elections called ... an earlier set in the vacant BC and Nova Scotia ridings that would either take place during or before the return of the House in September, and a later set in Québec designed not to interfere or overlap with the province-wide November 1 municipal elections.

If you hear about nomination meetings, prospective candidates, or other nomination news (like, when they're going to be called, which would be a great scoop !!), don't be shy: share with Pundits' Guide readers by jotting me a note. And then you can follow all the fun on Twitter.

Labels: Hochelaga, Labour, NDP, Vacant Seats

Sixteen year Bloc Québécois M.P. Réal Ménard confirmed this morning that he would resign his Commons seat of Hochelaga, QC on September 16 (the first Caucus meeting of the September sitting), in order to run municipally in Montréal.

[UPDATE: Thanks to commenter Chris for catching my obvious boo-boo in the blogpost title.]

We can thus guesstimate the relevant dates as follows (remembering that the exact dates will depend on when the Chief Electoral Officer receives the official notice of vacancy from the Commons Speaker):

Date of resignation:	Wed Sep 16, 2009
Earliest date the by-election could be called (11 days later):	Sun Sep 27, 2009
Earliest date the by-election could be held (first Monday at least 36 days after that):	Mon Nov 2, 2009
Latest date the by-election could be called (180 days later):	Mon Mar 15, 2010
Latest date the by-election could be held (first Monday at least 36 - [no maximum] days later):	on or after Mon Apr 26, 2010

Thus, it might be possible, if the Prime Minister were so inclined, to call all four vacant seats at the same time, since the last day to call New Westminster--Coquitlam, BC is Tuesday, October 13, and the Hochelaga by-election could be called any day on or after Sunday, September 27.

I'm adding Hochelaga to the list of vacant seats at the top of the main page, with all the relevant dates.

Labels: Bloc Québécois, Hochelaga, Vacant Seats

Further to speculation we reported here some time ago, it is now being reported by La Presse that a new vacancy will be opening up in the House of Commons (and thank heavens Paul Wells reads the french-language media, or many of us would miss these stories for another day or so):

• Hochelaga, QC - Six-term Bloc Québécois M.P. Réal Ménard, long rumoured to be interested in a provincial or municipal run, is now apparently set to announce tomorrow that he will run for a seat on the Montréal city council with the slate headed by former PQ cabinet minister Louise Harel, and would give up his Commons seat to do so. One of his party's original M.P.s from the 1993 election, Ménard has dominated this riding ever since, with the Liberals as his main competition. The NDP, however, counts this seat amongst their better performances in the province, having moved from barely 1.8% of the vote in 2000 to 14.4% under labour candidate Jean-Claude Rocheleau and pushing the Conservatives into fourth place. Perhaps not coincidentally NDP Leader Jack Layton was already attending a fundraising barbecue for Rocheleau this past Monday (you learn the darnedest things on Twitter). As Paul Wells implies, all the parties will be working to position themselves relative to their best enemy, and thus a by-election in this seat has the potential (this is me opining now) to give us a lot of clues about any change in the federal political landscape in Québec.

By the way, you can follow the Pundits' Guide on Twitter now. I usually follow you back (hope that's not a problem), as it's helped me pick up a lot of political and nomination news along the way (although I wish @DenisCoderre would remember to tweet more of the nomination meetings he's been holding lately, hint, hint!).

Labels: Bloc Québécois, Hochelaga, Vacant Seats