Pundits' Guide

Seats with First-Time Incumbents
	YT	NT	NU	BC	AB	SK	MB	ON	QC	NB	NS	PE	NL	Tot	Pct	Wom	Pct

Seats	1	1	1	36	28	14	14	106	75	10	11	4	7	308
Lib	1	1		15	8	4	7	90	46	8	10	3	6	199	65%	65	32.7%
NDP		1		19	10	8	6	71	10	2	6		2	135	44%	47	34.8%
Grn	1		1	16	18	7	12	79	50	2	7	3		196	64%	58	29.6%
BQ									40					40	13%	10	25.0%
Cons			1	30	28	13	12	77	21	5	4	3		194	63%	37	19.1%
Ind						1		1	1					3	1%	1	33.3%
Oth					1			1						2	1%	1	50.0%

Seats with First-Time Incumbents

Tot

Pct

Wom

Pct

Seats

106

308

Lib

199

65%

32.7%

NDP

135

44%

34.8%

Grn

196

64%

29.6%

13%

25.0%

Cons

194

63%

19.1%

Ind

33.3%

Oth

50.0%

Monday, July 20, 2009

Hill Times Articles

This morning's Hill Times has a lengthy piece by Harris MacLeod on the forthcoming election and ridings to watch at this early stage, including a list compiled in part by yours truly.

I appreciate the publicity and opportunity to provide information to the Hill Times, but just wanted to clarify that the list in the paper *includes* ridings provided by me, and that there was some editorializing going on by them in some of the list's comments as well. Specifically:

While I might agree that Brampton – Springdale, ON should be on the list because the Conservatives nominated there very early, I did not write the comments about it or its incumbent M.P. (and in general I do not even like "xx-gate" terms).
Moreover, Oakville, ON is a riding to watch, but I would have described it as a 1993 Liberal pickup of a previously Conservative seat at a time when the conservative parties split, rather than a "long-time" Liberal riding. Former Liberal M.P. Bonnie Brown won the seat in 1993, but it was previously held for 4 terms by Conservative M.P. Otto Jelinek. On the other hand, this is just the kind of seat whose fate will be interesting to watch going forward.

The riding list only appears in the printed edition, but as before I will be asking for permission to reprint it here, along with a table I prepared for last week's story on the battle in Québec, called "Québec by the Numbers (2008 General Election)".

Sorry to be so picky, but I really try to take care about the kinds of remarks I make, in order to keep this site a neutral place that's useful for everyone. Otherwise, keep up the great work, Hill Times, and from someone who read you from the beginning: Happy 20th Anniversary this October!

Labels: Hill Times, Media Coverage