Time to pass along a few accumulated developments in party apparatus news from here and there:

• Liberal Party - As a result of their posting which ended on January 6, the Liberal Party has hired a new National Director, Ian McKay from B.C., who will be starting in early March, when he's to "continue the modernization of our Party's communication and technological infrastructure and give him the tools to drive our membership engagement process," according to party president Alf Apps' letter to the membership. A financial services consultant, McKay ran in the 2000 general election in West Vancouver – Sunshine Coast, BC. Next on their agenda is the hiring of a new President for the National Liberal Fund: in effect the party's new chief fundraiser.
  
• Conservative Party - A re-organization of the party's Quebec office was first reported by Le Devoir at the end of January, and followed up on by L. Ian MacDonald's weekend column for the Montreal Gazette. The changes appear to have been set in motion when director-general Claude Durand decided late in the year to step down and take care of her son's health concerns. Her resignation took effect at the end of January, by which point she had reportedly identified some 60 candidates in the 75 Quebec ridings (not all of whom have been nominated or announced, apparently). It was revealed this past weekend that in fact the party is now closing its Montreal office, and opening one in Québec City instead, to be run by one of the successful organizers in the recent by-election in Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, Ghislain Maltais, who is also a former provincial Liberal MNA. Maltais will be backed up by Joseph Soares, based out of party headquarters in Ottawa, who was also a part of the by-election campaign team, MacDonald reports.
  
  Meanwhile, new party president John Walsh had the recent task of taking control of the Calgary West, AB Conservative riding association (aka EDA or electoral district association), which had been planning to conduct a referendum requesting an open nomination meeting at its upcoming annual general meeting, even though incumbent M.P. Rob Anders was already renominated last May along with the rest of his caucus. Kevin Libin ran down the inside story in a blogpost for the National Post's online "Full Comment" website, which reports a lot of perspective I had not read before.
  
• Green Party - There have simply not been enough hours in the day to keep on top of every twist and turn in the on-going debate about when and how to elect, re-elect, review or reconstitute the leadership of the Green Party and repair its finances, although party activists have been pouring themselves into debating the issues at great length in the comment sections of a number of different Green blogs, including DaveBagler.ca, Not an Official Green Party Canada Site (NAOGPCS), the democraticSpace.com blog, and of course Report on Greens. I'm unaware whether there has been any final resolution on the leadership convention question. In addition, the party's Revenue Sharing Agreement, whereby the national party distributes a third of its quarterly public subsidy to the EDAs, is also being questioned in light of its current debt situation.
  
  The big news, at least to me, is that there is a third potential leadership candidate on the horizon -- a woman -- who has been meeting people at private dinners, but has not yet announced her campaign. I've made several attempts to find out who it is, but no luck as yet. Apparently a communications plan is in place regarding the timing of the announcement, and the trigger may yet not be pulled. However, she appears to be supported by the BlueGreenBlogger at NAOGPCS, who teased her candidacy at the end of a recent blogpost. The woman, whoever she is, would be joining former federal and Ontario party leader Frank de Jong, and presumably Elizabeth May herself. As the party's constitution is currently written, May's fixed four-year term ends at some point in 2010.
  
• Bloc Québécois - In a reply to a recent blogpost on the partes' quarterly contributions by Chantal Hébert at l'Actualité, the directeur-general of the Bloc Québécois confirmed that their party's approach to fundraising is to favour the constituency associations as well. Gilbert Gardner pointed to 2008 numbers showing that the Bloc raised over $800K through its constituency associations, as compared with some $700K by the party headquarters, and suggested that the 2009 reports from their EDAs which are due this May would show a similar pattern.
  
• New Democrats - The first initiative springing from the NDP's recent Federal Council meeting to plan its strategy leading up to the next election has emerged, and it's focussed on riding fundraising as well. A Facebook group has just popped up for the "Local Victories Challenge", which according to NDP blogger The Jurist at Accidental Deliberations, is designed to make a central investment into riding associations, to help them build their local fundraising infrastructure. We've reported before that party national director Brad Lavigne and leader Jack Layton have been citing statistics about the performance of their candidates who are able to spend close to the spending limit, so it appears this initiative stems from that analysis. After the party's decision in the last election to put in place the financing necessary to spend the national limit (they wound up spending around 84% of the limit in the end), this time according to the promotional material for the Local Victories Challenge they're hoping to finally raise candidate spending up from the 20-25% or so of the limit across the board where it's stayed for the past 5 elections. You'll recall that Professor Bill Stanbury and I studied candidate spending in a two-part series last spring, in which we found that this 20-25% was in fact concentrated into a number of ridings that the party had targetted, and was highly correlated with the percent of the vote NDP candidates obtained.

Tomorrow: some new functionality for the Pundits' Guide database, and the importance of examining candidates' share of the electorate in order to understand vote switching.

Labels: Bloc Québécois, Conservatives, Greens, Liberals, NDP, Party Finance

A few items of political party news have accumulated that might be of interest to readers.

• The Liberal Party Rocco Rossi is irreplaceable, it turns out; at least by one person. After the Liberal national director's resignation to pursue the Toronto mayoralty, the party split up his previous functions and posted two separate jobs with a January 6 deadline: a new national director, and a new president of the National Liberal Fund who will serve as a chief fundraiser for the party. No word yet on when the results of the competitions will be announced. The Opposition Leader's Office (OLO) party liaison officer Heather Chiasson and Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff's new chief of staff Peter Donolo are both said to favour more of an NGO-style of management for the party, according to a Hill Times story from last week. Harris Maclead also reported that the new staffers can expect to earn a lot less than Rossi, and won't be able to expense weekly round trips to Toronto either.
  
• The Conservative Party New table officers were elected in early December, headed by both a new party president, John Walsh (fun fact: he's a constituent of NDP Leader Jack Layton's in Toronto – Danforth), and a new vice-president, Kara Johnson. The party's executive director is Dan Hilton. They are undoubtedly celebrating two recent court decisions that went in whole or in part in their favour. More on that in a subsequent post. (h/t Dr. Roy's Thoughts)
  
• The Green Party As we noted in a blogpost at the top of the year, the Green Party has been deliberating on what to do about part of its Bylaw #2, which mandates a leadership convention every four years. The problem they're grappling with is that the four years since their last leadership convention (where Elizabeth May beat David Chernushenko and Jim Fannon) is nearly up, but we're in a permanent election scare, and meantime the party has taken a strategic decision to focus their resources on getting their leader elected in Saanich – Gulf Islands, BC. The party's federal council debated a resolution last night that, if approved by the delegates to their August Biannual General Meeting (BGM), would replace the current bylaw s.2.1.4.5 "The Leader shall be elected in 2006 and every four (4) years thereafter" with a new version reading "The Leader shall be elected by the membership at a meeting of members constituted as a leadership convention, and a vote of confidence in the leader shall be held following a federal general election". Apparently the council has tabled the resolution with directions to consult with the membership, then rewrite the proposed by-law change, and submit it to the August BGM. Should it not be adopted, the resolution provides for a leadership convention before the end of 2010. There is a lot of discussion and debate going on, mainly at the blog of some critical Green party members, and on the party's internal email group. More background from last fall can be found at the democraticSpace blog.
  
  Meanwhile, having recruited some 200 candidates (I'm missing a few names, but thanks to a reader for sending me a list to cross-check against), the party recently laid off 4 three of its 7 regional organizers [UPDATE: and cut a 4th vacant organizer position], which has set off another round of internal debate in the comments section of another Green party member's blog.

In other political party news, it seems a new political party is starting to get organized. A regular correspondent writes to say:

I just wanted to let you know that there could be a new force soon on the political scene. I and many of us have left the Progressive Canadian Party to join with the United Party of Canada. The UCP was started by ... a long time Liberal strategist who left them to come to the PC's. His good ideas to grow the party were spurned so he and others like myself are working to make a party that takes the best ideas of the PC's Liberals, Greens and even the CAP Party. We are looking to gain from all parties but we are also looking for growth from Canadians who are disenfranchised from our current political system. We are especially looking to reengage Canada's youth in the our party and the system .... [M]any of the policies ... [from the Progressive Canadian Party] ... will find their way to the UCP .... [W]e are on the web (the page is rough but will improve).

Last summer we covered three other groups who were trying to register themselves as political parties with Elections Canada: the National Progressive Conservative Party of Canada (whose domain-name registration seems to have expired), along with the Pirate Party of Canada and the True North Party of Canada. To date, it does not appear as though the latter two been successful in meeting the registration requirements.

We also reported last summer that the recently-elected leader of the Canadian Action Party (CAP), Andrew Moulton, quit to join the Christian Heritage Party. Moulton had been elected to replace long-time CAP leader Connie Fogel. Melissa Lee Brade is now the Interim CAP Leader, taking over after the resignation of previous Interim Leader Dave Wilkinson. Brade intends to run again in Yellowhead, AB.

Labels: Conservatives, Greens, Liberals, Political Parties

Let's move on to the part of the country's largest province that's home to both a significant part of the franco-Ontarian fact and the nation's loyalist roots, alongside Algonquin and Mohawk first nations obviously, and many newcomers as well: namely Eastern Ontario, plus the National Capital Region (NCR) which means Ottawa.

NCR (6 seats)

• The Green Party has fielded a full slate of candidates already.
• The Liberals have nominated in all but their two incumbent seats (and as their incumbents are protected from facing contests whenever the time comes, it's only a question now whether either of them would retire).
• The Conservatives have nominated in all but Ottawa South and Ottawa Centre, although we've previously reported that Bruce Kyereh-Addo is interested in the Centre nomination, along with a few other unnamed candidates. The 2008 candidate in South, Elie Salibi, is now working for a cabinet minister on Parliament Hill. My sources tell me that no nomination meeting has been planned there at all for the time being.
• The NDP has nominated in all but Ottawa – Vanier and Nepean – Carleton. I haven't heard any news as to their plans in those seats, but if I had to guess, some Nortel retirees are probably on the candidate search lists.

Here are the ridings from east to west. (Some have argued that Carleton – Mississippi Mills should be included in the NCR list, but I put it into Eastern Ontario because of the rural nature of the riding, and its voting patterns. Certainly part of that riding is in greater Ottawa, however. UPDATE: A geographer has written and convinced me that it truly is an Ottawa riding. Hey, I grew up in the east-end; what can I say! When I make revisions to the construction of the so-called "local regions", I'll be moving that riding over.):

• Ottawa – Orléans, ON - This east-end riding has the lowest percent of immigrants of the six NCR ridings, the largest percents of married and common-law couples, and the greatest concentration of families with children. It's a bedroom community of newer developments on what was farmland when I grew up, and has the highest proportion of folks whose mother-tongue is french in the area. The riding is currently held by (my former family neighbour) long-time consultant and two-term Conservative M.P. Royal Galipeau. The former Liberal M.P. he defeated in 2004, Marc Godbout, gave up after two attempts to win his seat back, and so after a hotly contested three-way nomination contest this past September, Galipeau has a new Liberal opponent in lawyer David Bertschi. Also running are 2008 Green candidate Paul Maillet, a retired Air Forces Colonel, and new NDP candidate John Courtneidge, a chemist and anti-poverty activist, who was just nominated this past Monday, November 30. The riding has featured two-way Liberal-Conservative contests for most of its history, and in one of its earlier incarnations was represented by John Turner in the 1960s. The two main parties here have both spent nearly the full limit in recent outings, with the other parties spending under 10%.
  
• Ottawa – Vanier, ON - Next door is this traditionally francophone riding which also contains the University of Ottawa, Byward Market, National Defence Headquarters, and the eastern part of downtown Ottawa, along with the extremes of 24 Sussex Drive and Rockliffe Park on the one hand and Lowertown on the other. It has the largest proportion of people who speak french at home of the six ridings, but unlike Ottawa – Orléans which has the highest percent of home-owners and lowest percent of tenants, Ottawa –Vanier has the second-highest percent of tenants (and the second-lowest of homeowners). It has been the closest thing to a Liberal dynasty in the area, although six-term Liberal M.P. Mauril Bélanger's vote-shares have come down somewhat from the stratosphere in more recent years. This past October 14, the Conservatives (who have run as high as 29% here in recent times) nominated a new candidate in Rem Westland, a former military man who was the long-time Director General of Specific Claims at the Department of Indian Affairs. And in late August, the Green Party selected a new candidate, software designer Caroline Rioux, in a contested nomination. The NDP, which itself has run as high as 22% of the vote here lately, has yet to announce plans about its candidate search.
  
• Ottawa Centre, ON - Next door is the riding that contains Parliament Hill, Carleton University, the Experimental Farm, and most downtown government and private offices, and then continues west along the Ottawa River. It's currently held by two-term NDP M.P. Paul Dewar, a regular fixture on TV political panels due at least in part to his proximity to all the downtown TV studios on the weekend. He was elected after the retirement of Ed Broadbent (formerly of Oshawa), who won the riding for a single two-year term from 2004-06, when then-new NDP Leader Jack Layton urged him to come out of retirement. Dewar has been winning with a vote-share in the high 30s, but a divided opposition, and certainly the riding has been an NDP-Liberal contest since the 1980s, but always with a significant Conservative presence. His new Liberal opponent, pharmaceutical executive Scott Bradley, won a contested nomination in a bit of an upset back in September over presumed Ignatieff-favourite, communication executive Janet Yale. The 2008 Green candidate, software executive Jen Hunter, is also returning, and as mentioned above the Conservatives have yet to announce any candidate selection timelines but have several folks apparently interested.
  
• Ottawa South, ON - I just looked it up now, because I wasn't sure which McGuinty brother was older: the Ottawa South M.P. David or the Ottawa South M.P.P./Premier Dalton (it's Premier Dalton, by 5 years; their youngest brother Brendan has held behind the scenes positions municipally in Ottawa as well). David McGuinty won the federal Liberal nomination in 2004, when former Chrétien-era cabinet minister John Manley retired, but that nomination was not without controversy, as two women candidates were hampered by a combination of rules, process, and influence (documented here (PDF) the following year by former Liberal national director Sheila Gervais, as part of a paper for the Queens University Centre for the Study of Democracy). The riding contains the highest proportion of immigrants of the six Ottawa-area seats and the largest number of Muslims, and has to this point been a two-way Liberal-Conservative contest. McGuinty, should he run again as expected, will be facing at least two of his 2008 opponents as well: the NDP's Hijal de Sarkar and Qais Ghanam for the Green Party. No Conservative candidate selection process has been launched to date.
  
  I just noticed that Ghanam's 2008 campaign spending represented a very large hike over Green Party spending in this riding in 2006 (23% of the limit, up from 3%), however it was not enough to bring him over the 10% threshold for a candidate rebate, and garnered him only another 1,020 votes over the party's earlier total of 2,900 or so. Earlier, in 2004, the NDP invested heavily in the riding campaign of Monia Mazigh (best known for her advocacy on behalf of her husband Maher Arar), spending an unusually-high-for-them-here 89% of the limit on Mazigh's campaign. This helped to more than double their vote totals from 2000 (up over 8,000 votes from just under 3,500), and then 2006 candidate Henri Sader was able to hold this new vote in spite of spending significantly less. Other than those two cases, the parties spent pretty much as you'd expect for a two-way race.
  
• Ottawa West – Nepean, ON - Another two-way contest is usually found in this west-end riding, currently represented by two-term M.P. John Baird. It has the local reputation of swinging with the government (although former Liberal M.P. Marlene Catterall broke that spell by winning in 1988), it has the highest proportion of folks who only know English of ridings in Ottawa (over 70%), the lowest proportion of people who know both English and French, and the second-highest concentration of visible minorities. It would have been home to many Nortel and other high tech workers during the high tech boom, given the location of so many of those tech companies in the city's west end. Taking his second try at returning to public office is former Liberal M.P. David Pratt, who was acclaimed their candidate earlier this year (after Janet Yale briefing mused about running against him, but demurred in favour of Ottawa Centre). Pratt came late to the 2008 election in this riding, after sitting out the 2006 campaign. The NDP's Marlene Rivier, a psychological consultant, is returning to fly her party's colours one more time, while the Greens have a new candidate in Mark MacKenzie who runs his own organic lawncare business. Baird was first elected in 2006 after Marlene Catterall retired and he was able to move ahead of her replacement, and he then kept the seat in 2008 with roughly the same margin of victory (9% or so).
  
• Nepean – Carleton, ON - Furthest southwest, we find another growing bedroom community, where over half the homes were built within the last 20 years, there are fewer apartment buildings than any other city riding, residents pay both the highest rental payments and housing costs in the area, and most people drive to work. The riding was Tory for years under Richard Bell, Walter Baker and Bill Tupper, with brief Liberal interregnums from 1963-65, and a term when Trudeau first ran in 1968. But Liberal Beryl Gaffney broke that stranglehold in 1988 when she edged Tupper out, and was succeeded after serving two terms by another Liberal M.P. David Pratt. Pratt served two terms until he was defeated by Conservative Pierre Poilievre in 2004, who has been reelected twice since then with over 55% of the vote and margins of 25% or higher. Poilievre will face a new Liberal challenger this time, laywer Ryan Keon (whose dad is Conservative Senator and heart surgeon Dr. Wilbert Keon), and a new Green candidate, IT security consultant Jean-Luc Cooke. Unlike Ottawa South, a big spending hike in the 2008 Green campaign (from 7% of the limit to 22%) was associated with a doubling in Green support to some 8,000 votes, pushing them slightly ahead of the NDP candidate who had spent the party's usual 15% of the limit. No NDP candidate has been selected for this riding as yet.

We'll finish off Eastern Ontario next time with the rural ridings.

Don't forget to cast your ballot in the Canadian Blog Awards for the best political blogs. Voting in the first round continues until next Saturday December 12.

Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Conservatives, Greens, Liberals, NDP

Leading the non-Bloc nomination news in Québec in the last few days was the announcement by the Green Party of its new Québec Deputy Leader: not Stéphane Dion or Janine Krieber, per Wells' First Rule of Politics, but rather retired Radio-Canada environment reporter Jacques Rivard.

The only question I have is where Rivard will run, given that he's Montréal-based and the Green Party has already filled virtually every Montréal-area riding. I've just updated all the GPC nominations for Québec, and the only vacancies I see are: Saint-Léonard – Saint-Michel, Hochelaga (assuming Christine Lebel isn't hoping to run again), Alfred-Pellan in the Laval area, Saint-Lambert and Saint-Bruno – Saint-Hubert on the south-shore, or maybe Beauharnois – Salaberry if he doesn't mind going that far. Unfortunately none of Rivard's former colleagues in the media thought to ask, so we'll just have to wait for the answer from the party.

The Green party has now nominated candidates in 50/75 Québec ridings, more than even the Bloc Québécois, with only about a third of them return candidates from 2008 (18/50). Former deputy leader Claude William Genest does not seem to be running again so far, given that the three ridings in which he's previously run are all now filled by other Green nominees. There's also a candidate again in Stéphane Dion's west Island riding of Saint-Laurent – Cartierville.

Meanwhile, thanks to a forgetful Hill denizen and the ever-alert Steve Maher of the Halifax Chronicle-Herald, we know from Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff's schedule (PDF) that he was to meet Eastern Québec Liberal candidates and their organizers Wednesday night in Québec city. I count about 12 nominated candidates who would fit the bill, if you include everything from Manicouagan to Joliette on the north shore, and from Haute-Gaspésie – La Mitis – Matane – Matapédia to Brome – Missisquoi on the south shore (roughly 33 ridings all told).

Summer Liberal nomination news in Québec was all about Outremont, and extensively covered by all the traditional sources, but for those who missed the dénouement, Martin Cauchon's only remaining competition for the nomination, Liberal riding executive member and president of "Médecins d'ailleurs" Comlan Amouzou, withdrew from the nomination race in late October, according to Le Devoir. Resigning his post as riding vice-president at the same time, Amouzou charged that forces within the party had been urging him to pull out of the race; saying

«Je me pose de très sérieuses questions sur la place des communautés ethniques au sein du Parti libéral du Canada au Québec, dit-il. Ce parti est devenu une chasse gardée pour quelques privilégiés qui agissent en fonction de leurs intérêts et de leurs ambitions au détriment des aspirations des militants de la base. Je ne reconnais plus les véritables valeurs libérales.»

Meanwhile, the departure of Denis Coderre as Québec lieutenant has left a few more nominations up in the air (we reported on some others earlier here):

• Trois-Rivières, QC - Former radio host Robert Pilotte confirmed to Le Nouvelliste in late September that he was the candidate Denis Coderre had been holding the riding for. Readers will recall that Coderre ran afoul of local Liberals in the Trois-Rivières in his late August bid to court former ADQ House Leader Sébastien Proulx, deemed a bit on the conservative side by some members of the local riding. Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff had just visited riding activists there a few days before the September story on Pilotte appeared. In it, the regional president of the federal Liberal association in Québec argued strongly for an open nomination so that "the best candidate can win", noting that other names had also been circulating. Riding president Jean Boulet, meanwhile, was being a lot more circumspect about the nature and timing of the nomination meeting, and we learned why in early November: he had been considering a run himself, although he eventually ruled it out, as did another prospective candidate: Serge Lafrenière of Investors Group. This has left Patrice Mangin, director-general of the "Centre intégré des pâtes et papiers", as the only candidate in the race so far with no meeting date established in the foreseeable future. The riding is currently held by three-term Bloc Québécois M.P. Paule Brunelle.
• Beauport – Limoilou, QC - Another former radio host courted by Coderre ruled himself out of the running for the Liberals in mid-October, reported the Journal de Québec. Martin Pouliot said the fact that there would not be an election made his decision easier, but also cited the resignation of Mr. Coderre and the ensuing "collapse" of the federal Liberals in Québec. The riding is currently held by two-term Conservative M.P. Sylvie Boucher.
• Québec, QC - Also unknown, according to Le Soleil last month, is the current status, or even interest, of former provincial Liberal cabinet minister Jean Leclerc, who was reportedly interested in Coderre's approaches about running in this other Québec City riding earlier in the summer. The riding is currently held by long-time Bloc Québécois M.P. Christiane Gagnon who, although she is not yet nominated, told me at the Equal Voice reception on Tuesday night that she was indeed planning to run again, but keeps her nomination meeting to the last minute, since the Bloc campaign has often launched in her riding, which presumably makes for a quick and easy opening day event for them.
  
• Louis-Hébert, QC - However for every door that closes another potentially opens, since former M.P. Hélène Chalifour Scherrer, who had wanted to run but was being apparently being blocked in that ambition by Coderre, may now be willing to run, the same Le Soleil story suggested. I'm also told by a reader that the Conservatives have a candidate in this riding, Pierre Paul-Hus, who publishes a french-language military magazine. I've been trying to confirm his status as a candidate, so if you can help with details such as when he was nominated, and was it a contest, please do get in touch and pass it along so I can enter him into the database. The seat is now held by first-time Bloc Québécois M.P. Pascal-Pierre Paillé, whose family name may sound familiar to you, as he is the nephew of recently-elected Hochelaga Bloc M.P. Daniel Paillé.

As for the NDP, it has not approved too many ridings to hold nomination meetings in Québec as yet, although for some reason it has a pocket of three nominees in the Mauricie-Lanaudière ridings, including an elected municipal councillor, Manon Perrault in Montcalm, returning labour candidate Réjean Bellemare in Repentigny, and returning candidate Francine Raynault in Joliette.

Also renominated are party Québec section treasurer and pharmacist Hoang Mai in Brossard – La Prairie, QC (the 5th closest four-way race of the last election), and community activist Christelle Bogosta in Brome – Missisquoi, QC (the 5th closest two-way race in Quebec last time, and also mathematically very close to the criteria for three-way and four-way races).

Finally, both the NDP's by-election candidates, Jean-Claude Rocheleau in Hochelaga and François Lapointe in Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, have told their local papers that they could run again in the next election.

We'll pick up next time in Ontario, which has seen a lot of new Conservative and NDP candidates since we last checked in.

Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Conservatives, Greens, Liberals, NDP

With the by-elections out of the way, it's high time we got back to a cross-country review of nominations. And with this much of a catch-up to do, I'm going to be asking readers for a hand. Thanks to those of you who have been patiently sending in nomination news when you came across it. I'm going through it all now, but if I miss something you sent, please don't be offended ... just write me back and let me know.

Newfoundland and Labrador (7 seats)

All I'm aware of at present are:

• 2 New Democrats (incumbent St. John's East M.P. Jack Harris and 2008 St. John's South – Mount Pearl candidate Ryan Cleary), and
• 1 Liberal (incumbent Humber – St. Barbe – Baie Verte M.P. Gerry Byrne)
• A news story awhile back speculated that Conservative Senator and former M.P. Fabian Manning might be interested in running again in Avalon, but I haven't heard anything further there.

Prince Edward Island (4 seats)

Again, not too many names to report here yet:

• 3 Green candidates (previous candidate Peter Bevan-Maker in Malpeque, arts administrator Corin McFadden in Charlottetown, and Karl Hengst in Egmont), and
• 1 Conservative (incumbent M.P. Gail Shea in Egmont was automatically renominated with the rest of her caucus on May 4)

Nova Scotia (11 seats)

A bit better coverage here:

• 6 Liberals (2 of the 5 incumbents, Geoff Regan in Halifax West and Mike Savage in Dartmouth – Cole Harbour, along with former M.P.s Robert Thibault in West Nova and Derek Wells in South Shore – St. Margaret's, Stan L. Kutcher who won a contested nomination in Halifax in late August, and 2008 candidate Carolyn Scott who was renominated by acclamation in late September in Sackville – Eastern Shore)
• 6 Greens (Michael Dewar in Sackville – Eastern Shore, Anthony Rosborough in Halifax, Thomas Trappenberg in Halifax West, and Paul Shreenan in Dartmouth – Cole Harbour, who are in the database, along with Celine Papillon in Central Nova and Sheila Richardson in Kings – Hants, who aren't there yet, pending me obtaining their details as to nomination date and method)
• 4 Conservatives (the 3 incumbents, Peter MacKay in Central Nova, Gerald Keddy in South Shore – St. Margaret's, and Greg Kerr in West Nova; along with Clarence Derrick Kennedy in Cape Breton – Canso)
• 2 New Democrats (Peter Stoffer is the first of 2 incumbents to be renominated in Sackville – Eastern Shore, while former M.P. Gordon Earle received the nod in South Shore – St. Margaret's this past summer). Halifax West has scheduled a nomination meeting for Thursday November 26 at which Atlantic Film Festival executive director Gregor Ash is expected to be acclaimed, and Halifax follows on Sunday November 29, when M.P. Megan Leslie hopes to receive her party's nod once again as well

New Brunswick (10 seats)

The site of a lot of contested Liberal nominations earlier this year:

• all 6 incumbent Conservatives were automatically renominated on May 4, 2009 (Keith Ashfield in Fredericton, Rob Moore in Fundy Royal, Tilly O'Neill-Gordon in Miramichi, Greg Thompson in New Brunswick Southwest, Rodney Weston in Saint John, and Mike Allen in Tobique – Mactaquac)
  
• 5 Liberals (all in Conservative-held ridings: Pam Campbell in Fredericton, Dave Delaney in Fundy Royal, Keith Vickers in Miramichi, Kelly Wilson in New Brunswick Southwest, and Charles Chiasson in Tobique – Mactaquac). This leaves the 3 incumbent Liberal MPs, who are all able to run uncontested, Saint John which is assumed to be left open for former M.P. Paul Zed, and NDP-held Acadie – Bathurst)
• 2 Greens (Ron Mazerolle in Miramichi and Steven Steeves in Moncton – Riverview – Dieppe). According to ElectionPrediction.org, their very popular candidate last time in Fredericton, Mary Lou Babineau, is not running again, however.
  
• 1 New Democrat (incumbent Yvon Godin was renominated in Acadie – Bathurst a week ago, Sunday, November 8, with NDP Leader Jack Layton in attendance)

So, in summary, across 32 seats with 128 or more candidates expected to run, 36 have been confirmed as nominated so far, with two more just pending me obtaining their dates, another two with scheduled nomination meetings, and most of the candidates in the recent Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley by-election also indicating their interest in running again. Five of the 36 are women, as are both of the two pending dates, and one of the scheduled nominees, so 8/40.

That brings us up-to-date in the Atlantic provinces. Next stop: Québec. If you have nomination news to share with other readers, I'm back in full gear on that front, so please drop me a line. Then follow along on Twitter.

Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Conservatives, Greens, Liberals, NDP

The Green Party has acclaimed its candidate for MIKR, rounding out its own slate and in fact rounding out the slate of major party candidates for the 4 ridings:

• Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, QC - Farmer and nature-lover Charles Marois was acclaimed by the Green riding association this past Sunday, a reader writes to say.
• Hochelaga, QC - The Green candidate Christine Lebel was in fact acclaimed by their riding association back on September 23, the reader also advises. Looks like she may be joined by a neoRhino candidate, Gabrielle Anctil, who although not yet nominated has a few thoughts on the current state of the sign war in the riding.

Meanwhile, the Liberal Party has put up its by-election website, including websites for the two Québec candidates, which I've now added to the database. They promote the site from the main page in rotation with other featured sections, and link to the candidates' websites from the by-election site. as seen here:





In fact, it looks like they took the photograph from Jim Burrows' website, and dropped the other candidates' photos into it:

Labels: Greens, Nov 9 2009 By-elections, Other Party Candidates, Party Web Watch

[UPDATE: See below for story from La Presse Canadienne on Hochelaga Bloc nomination.]

Switching back from by-election coverage to the non-byelection nomination news, we have a last spurt of nominations to cover, after which it appears that things are slowing down for the fall. Many fewer meetings are scheduled for the coming weeks, and I'm hearing unconfirmed reports that other meetings and announcements are being delayed. Blogger tcnorris is arguing tonight that the announcement of the royal visit and the calling of the byelections signals that the Prime Minister is unlikely to try and engineer his own defeat this fall, and I think that's probably about right.

Indeed, if the election window drags out longer than that, we may start to see the opposition phenomenon .... candidates dropping out because the timing turns bad for them, and MPs with long service deciding to sit out the next campaign after all.

Personally, I'm looking forward to the break so we can return to some other analyses around here that got crowded out by the onslaught of nomination news. So, let's get down to it now, starting with candidates who have been selected recently:

• Leeds – Grenville, ON - The NDP has renominated its 2008 candidate in this riding, Brockville and District Labour Council president Steve Armstrong this past week. Meantime, the Green Party now has a three-way nomination race on the go, with a meeting set for Thursday, October 15 as we've already reported here. Armstrong and the winner of the Green contest will be joining recently nominated Liberal candidate Marjory Loveys, and three-term Conservative M.P. Gord Brown on the campaign trail.
  
• Oak Ridges – Markham, ON - NDP - Three-time NDP candidate in neighbouring Markham – Unionville, Janice Hagen, was nominated last Friday, October 2 in her new riding. She will now face first-time Conservative M.P. Paul Calandra, and former Liberal M.P. Lui Temelkovski.
  
• Miramichi, NB - As we quickly reported last weekend, Keith Vickers, and former aide to the former Liberal M.P. for this riding, Charlie Hubbard, won the 3-way contested nomination in this riding last Saturday, October 3. According to the Miramichi Leader, which ran down the details of the ballotting, Vickers won on the second ballot, with some 650 members voting in a room of 800, telling the crowd afterwards that the seat is "ours and we're going to take it back". If they do, it will be from first-time Conservative M.P. Tilly O'Neill-Gordon.
  
• Essex, ON - The NDP renominated three-time candidate Taras Natyshak this past Saturday, reported the Amherstburg Echo. Natyshak be will facing two-time Conservative M.P. Jeff Watson for the third straight contest, with a new Liberal face, Kingsville Mayor Nelson Santos, joining the race alongside first-time Green Party candidate Cora Carriveau. The riding has been held by all 3 major parties since 1984. The NDP's Steven Langdon won the former riding of Essex-Windsor in 1984, on the retirement of long-time (and colourful) former Liberal M.P. Eugene Whelan. Langdon held the seat for two terms, losing alongside many NDP incumbents in 1993 to first-time Liberal M.P.s, in this case Whelan's daughter Susan. She then held the seat for 3 terms, but lost to Watson in 2004, and after trying twice more to regain it, ruled herself out of the Liberal nomination this time. The riding has been a 3-way race in two of the last three elections, but historically has seen everything from crushing Liberal victories under Whelan Sr., to a third-place finish for his successor. And unlike many ridings in which the NDP did much worse in the elections of 1993 and 2000, that party never dropped below 14%, and have scored as high as 44%. Conservatives posted a record low of 14% in the Free Trade election of 1988, but scored as high as 40% 20 years later. The riding has a combination of agriculture and folks dependent on the auto sector, and surrounds the city of Windsor. I think it's going to make for an interesting window into how Ontario goes in the next election.
  
• Haldimand – Norfolk, ON - Also on Saturday, the NDP renominated 2008 candidate Ian Nichols by acclamation in this rural southwestern Ontario riding, currently held by three-term Conservative M.P. Diane Finley, and also being contested by former Liberal M.P. Bob Speller and first-time Green candidate Anne Faulkner. Local NDP members are noting that this marks the first time they've had the same candidate run more than once for them in this riding. Meanwhile, Speller recently picked up the endorsement of a former prime minister, as Paul Martin recently visited Brantford in support of his campaign.
  
• Davenport, ON - Calling it "just like a gig, but with a tie", musician and member of the band "The Skydiggers" Andrew Cash accepted the NDP nomination in the Toronto riding of Davenport on Monday, October 5 before a room of several hundred who were treated to live music alongside the usual speeches, including leader Jack Layton, M.P. Charlie Angus, and most of the band Blue Rodeo, according to one tweeter in attendance. Cash will be facing three-term Liberal M.P. Mario Silva, who has won the riding with 46%-52% of the vote each time. The NDP has been able to post a 30-32% vote share since the forced retirement of long-time Liberal M.P. Charles Caccia in 2004, before which they earned 14-18%. Conservative candidates typically score around 10-12% in the riding, and a strong Green candidate in 2008, bike courier activist Wayne Scott, came in just behind them. Traditionally considered the home of the Portuguese community, the MediaStyle.ca blog reports that Davenport has been changing demographically in recent years to include "a growing core 'creative class'", and indeed the riding ranked 14th in the country in the 2006 census for employment in art, culture, recreation and sport, even if that does represent just 7.15% of its population.
  
• Burlington, ON - As well on Monday night, child protection worker and NDPer David Laird was renominated his party's candidate for the 4th time in this riding just outside Hamilton. He will join two-term Conservative M.P. Mike Wallace and Liberal candidate Bruce Bowser, who ran in Wellington – Halton Hills in 2008. Here's a riding where the NDP and Green vote did not change much between 2004 and 2008, but the seat changed hands strictly on the exchange of Liberal and Conservative votes. It was close in 2004 when Wallace nearly overtook former Liberal M.P. Paddy Torsney, and again in 2006 when he finally did, but by 2008 Wallace was able retain his raw vote, while the Liberal vote apparently stayed home as turnout fell.
  
• Barrie, ON - Another return NDP candidate, Myrna Clark, was renominated by acclamation in this riding northwest of Toronto on Wednesday, October 7, according to the Barrie Examiner. Clark will rejoin three-time Conservative M.P. Patrick Brown, and three-time Green Party candidate Erich Jacoby-Hawkins, and a Liberal to be named later. Again, the NDP vote has stayed within a range of 10-12% here since 2004, with the Greens growing somewhat, but unlike Burlington, the Liberal vote here plummetted by around 10,000 votes between 2006 and 2008, with the Conservatives picking up about 4,000 of them, the Greens another 2,000 and the rest staying home as turnout fell. Thanks to a reader for supplying the clipping.
  
• Simcoe – Grey, ON - Thanks to a reader for sending along this clipping from the Wasaga Sun, reporting the nomination by acclamation of Green Party candidate Stuart Starbuck, also on Wednesday. Realtor Phil Baldwin had earlier been planning to contest the nomination, but withdrew citing work conditions. Starbuck, a former municipal councillor, will now join three-time Conservative M.P. Helena Guergis, returning Liberal candidate Andrea Matrosovs, and two-time NDP candidate Katy Austin, who was also recently acclaimed on September 28.
  
• Saskatoon – Wanuskewin, SK - Another reader wrote in to say that the expected contested NDP nomination in this riding between Barb Henderson and John Parry, also slated for Wednesday night, in fact saw Parry acclaimed with Henderson stepping down to take care of some family concerns. An accountant by training and christian by faith, Parry represented the former riding of Kenora-Rainy River from 1984-1988, subsequently ran for the party several times in Manitoba between 2000 and 2002 and has since relocated to Saskatchewan for work, unsuccessfully running for the nomination in this riding last time around, after having been nominated here for the 2005 election scare (which Belinda Stronach and Chuck Strahl Cadman [D'oh: sorry about that, Mr. Strahl] spared the country) but then stepping down for work reasons. I'm betting he is also the only University of Western Ontario MBA to have joined the Facebook group "Let George Gallaway speak". Parry will be running against long-time Conservative M.P. Maurice Vellacott, with Liberal and Green candidates yet to be chosen.
• Hochelaga, QC - There's a new blog covering by-election news (welcome, and thanks for the link yesterday), and it's reporting tonight that Gilles Duceppe's chosen candidate, former PQ Industry Minister, Daniel Paillé, did indeed win the Bloc Québécois nomination in this by-election riding Thursday, October 8. He'll be joining NDP candidate Jean-Claude Rocheleau, whose campaign office will be opened by leader Jack Layton tomorrow night, Conservative candidate Stéphanie Cloutier, whose campaign kick-off the other day was aided by Conservative Senator Claude Carignan, and recently-named Liberal candidate Robert David, who made quite a memorable entry into the campaign, according to Le Devoir (via Deux Maudits Anglais at Macleans.ca). Here's a question readers could perhaps help us out with: is this Mr. Paillé in any way related to first-term Louis-Hébert Bloc M.P. Pascal-Pierre Paillé? If you know, please drop us a line. UPDATE: La Presse Canadienne writes that Paillé "easily" won the meeting, and has Duceppe's office denying Jean Baribeau's claims that they phoned and asked him to withdraw. FURTHER UPDATE: Daniel Paillé is Pascal-Pierre Paillé's uncle, a reader writes to let us know. Cool. Thanks.
  

If it's starting to sound like a lot of NDP nomination news lately, and less from the other parties, it seems to be because the party made a big push to get key nominations completed once their convention was concluded. One of the analyses I'll be preparing (hopefully over the weekend), now that I've just about got the nominations database up-to-date, is the number of nominations by week, by party. I think that chart will show more clearly the different time-frames in which different parties have been active on that score, over what many believed would be a pre-election period.

Anyway there is other nomination news from across the country, but as it's well past my bedtime here, it will have to wait until tomorrow night. As you may have noticed, it's not just the nomination news that's starting to slow down these days ;-). Bring on the long weekend, I say.

Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Bloc Québécois, Greens, Hochelaga, Liberals, NDP, Nov 9 2009 By-elections

In other non-byelection nomination news, a number of new candidates were nominated over the last week, starting this past Wednesday. Owing to the large number of them and shortness of time, I'm doing a pretty cursury treatment for now, but will try and remember to do a more expansive write-up of these ridings next time they surface.

• Wed 30 Sep - NDP - Ottawa West – Nepean, ON - Three-time candidate Marlene Rivier, thanks to a reader for the clipping
  
• Wed 30 Sep - Lib - Edmonton – Leduc, AB - Donna Lynn Smith (h/t Liberal Scarf who got it from Facebook)
  
• Wed 30 Sep - NDP - Vancouver Island North - Former M.P. Catherine Bell acclaimed to run again in 4th contest against Conservative M.P. John Duncan; thanks to a reader for the clipping
  
• Fri 2 Oct - Lib - Dartmouth – Cole Harbour, NS - Liberal M.P. Mike Savage renominated by acclamation I'm assuming
  
• Fri 2 Oct - NDP - Oak Ridges – Markham, ON - Janice Hagan, who previously ran 3 times in Markham – Unionville
  
• Sat 3 Oct - Lib - South Shore – St. Margaret's, NS - Former Liberal M.P. Derek Wells wins contested nomination 158 to 20; will be 3 current or former MPs running in this riding now: Conservative incumbent Gerald Keddy, former NDP M.P. Gordon Earle, plus Wells
  
• Sat 3 Oct - Lib - West Nova, NS - Robert Thibault acclaimed; thanks to a contact for confirming this
  
• Sat 3 Oct - Lib - Miramichi, NB - Keith Vickers; again thank you to a contact for letting us know
  
• Sat 3 Oct - NDP - Shefford, QC - Simon Gnocchini Messier will run again
  
• Sat 3 Oct - Lib - Burlington, ON - Businessman and 2008 candidate in Wellington – Halton Hills Bruce Bowser acclaimed with about 100 in attendance, after former M.P. Paddy Torsney decided to sit it out. Thanks to a reader for keeping us in the loop.
  
• Sat 3 Oct - NDP - Burnaby – Douglas, BC - M.P. Bill Siksay renominated by acclamation, he told Twitter
  
• Sat 3 Oct - NDP - Essex, ON - Two-time candidate Taras Natyshak renominated by acclamation, he told Facebook
  
• Sat 3 Oct - NDP - Kamloops – Thompson – Cariboo, BC - Two-time candidate Michael Crawford renominated by acclamation, in the second-biggest story from out of Kamloops this past weekend
  
• Sun 4 Oct - Lib - Toronto – Danforth, ON - 2008 candidate Andrew Lang to run again; thanks to a reader for letting us know
  
• Sun 4 Oct - BQ - Charlesbourg – Haute-Saint-Charles, QC - First-time candidate Félix Grenier acclaimed this afternoon, to take on Conservative M.P. Daniel Petit
  

Also:

• Sackville – Eastern Shore, NS - Lib - I'm still trying to find out who won the Liberal nomination here the other weekend. If you know, please get in touch.
  
• Jeanne-Le Ber, QC - Lib - Nathalie Le Prohon is still going to run for the nomination here, but will perhaps be challenged by Sebastien Dhavernas, who was going to test the waters at the weekend Liberal congress in Québec city, according to La Presse.
  
• Lac-Saint-Louis, QC - Grn - Ryan Young was introduced as Green candidate by Elizabeth May in this West Island of Montréal riding late last week, reported the Gazette.
  
• Ottawa Centre, ON - Cons - Four candidates are seriously considering running for the Conservatives here, reports the Centretown News, but the riding association says they're not in a rush to pick a candidate. The Liberal Scarf has more background.
  
• Leeds – Grenville, ON - Grn - A contested nomination is in the cards, now that 2008 candidate Jeannie Warnock has stepped aside, reported the Whig-Standard. And thanks to a reader for writing in with the details: a former Liberal riding president, property manager Jeff Poole, three-time Green candidate in Ottawa-Vanier and speech and language coach Raphaël Thierrin, and retired teacher and farmer Mary Slade of Athens, will all face off on Thursday, October 15.
  
• Beaches – East York, ON - NDP - With two-time federal candidate Marilyn Churley bowing out, a new NDP nomination candidate has emerged on Facebook: lawyer Barbara Warner who volunteers with the Canadian Environmental Law Association, Legal Education Action Fund, and Ontario Environment Network is running, and says that a meeting date will be set soon in this east Toronto riding.
  
• Davenport, ON - NDP - Musician Andrew Cash is now apparently set to be acclaimed at the nomination meeting scheduled for Monday evening in this west Toronto riding.
  
• Guelph, ON - Cons - An Air Canada pilot and retired member of the air force, Marty Burke, appears to have been acclaimed the Conservative candidate in this riding, according to the Guelph Mercury. I'll be trying to find out when exactly he was nominated, and whether the nomination was contested in order to add this name into the database.
• North Vancouver, BC - Lib - An apparently contested nomination race between two candidates, who are both interested but neither green-lighted as yet, is the focus of this clipping from the North Shore News. Former Liberal M.P. Don Bell may or may not be running against former Green Party candidate James "Green Jim" Stephenson, at a nomination meeting that hasn't been scheduled yet.
  
• South Surrey – White Rock – Cloverdale, BC - CHP - A former local Conservative activist Michael Schouten is getting a Christian Heritage Party riding association organized in this riding, and hopes to be approved as its candidate here, after volunteering for Conservative M.P. Russ Hiebert in the past, reported the Peace Arch News last month. Apparently the CHP has never run a candidate in this riding before, but is now said to have identified up to 7 candidates across B.C., including Kevin Pielak in Surrey North. I'll have to do some more research into this, but if you know who they might be, please get in touch.
  

While the by-elections are on, you can always find the 41st general election Nominations Progress chart on the page for that electoral event, while the Nominations Progress table is always found on the "Search the Database" page in the section titled "Queries for Most Recent Election(s)", under "Nomination Counts".

I'm about to insert a large number of Green Party nominations, as I've had the details confirmed by GPC officials, whom I thank for their efforts. In the next day or so I'll be doing an analysis of nominations by week by party, which I had planned to do this weekend until the by-election calls occurred. Stay tuned.

If you have news to pass along, please write to use here, and then follow along on Twitter for all the latest.

Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Bloc Québécois, Conservatives, Greens, Liberals, NDP

Getting back to the nomination news of the past few days, there are a few significant developments worth marking, first off in one of the vacant ridings:

• Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, NS - The NDP nominated first-time candidate Mark Austin by acclamation this past Wednesday in the seat vacated by Independent M.P. Bill Casey last spring. Austin, a farmer, small business owner, and sustainable planning coordinator, told the Amhert Daily News that he had been approached to run by two other parties before settling on the NDP. This rounds out the slate of candidates for the second prospective by-election seat, with a call due on or before Saturday, October 31. Realistically however, since the New Westminster – Coquitlam, BC by-election needs to be called by a week from Tuesday, we can expect that this one will be called at the same time, with the two vacant Québec seats possible additions to the roster as well.

Next, although l'affaire Coderre has been extensively covered by the mainstream media and bloggers alike, I thought it was worth summarizing the main implications from a nomination perspective:

• I'm given to understand that there will now be open nominations for the Liberal candidates in both Outremont, QC and Jeanne-Le Ber, QC. Nathalie Le Prohon, after having taken a few days to consider things, has decided that she will be a candidate for the nomination in the latter seat, while former Outremont Liberal M.P. Martin Cauchon will be facing a member of the riding executive, doctor and founding president of Medecins d'Ailleurs Comlan Amouzou in his old seat. No nomination date has been settled on as yet, that I've seen.
  
• The status of some of Coderre's other picks is not clear to me, for example Noushig Eloyan in Ahuntsic, QC, where it was reported this week that former M.P. Eleni Bakopanos had indeed been selling memberships in order to run for the nomination again, until Mr. Coderre informed her that he had selected another candidate for the seat.
  
• Mr. Coderre is apparently not going to be asked to leave the Liberal caucus, after reports of his contrition on Facebook and apparently non-controversial appearance on Tout le monde en parle surfaced. As an incumbent M.P., one supposes he is also entitled to be renominated without opposition in his own riding of Bourassa, QC. So, while Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff has said there will be consequences for Mr. Coderre, they seem destined to take the form of lost opportunities in Question Period, overseas trips, committee assignments, critic areas, and other perks ... and probably Friday House duty day from now till doomsday, a permanent seat on the most boring committee in Parliament, and relegation to the draftiest, smallest office on the Hill; rather than the loss of his nomination or caucus membership.
  
• None of the sitting M.P.s Coderre was reportedly pushing to retire to make way for new candidates appears to have succumbed. Indeed Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff attended a fundraiser for one of them, Laval – Les Îles, QC M.P. Raymond Folco, in Laval earlier this week. Ignatieff has also recently visited Trois-Rivières, QC in the past week, where Coderre's earlier attempts to recruit a former ADQ MNA to run federally had run into strong resistance from the local Liberal riding association.

Meanwhile, the Conservatives had a candidate resign themselves earlier in the week, which I noted in the List of Candidates who have stepped down, but had not documented in a blogpost as yet. Stephen Taylor was the first to report via Twitter that Gordon Landon, earlier acclaimed as Conservative candidate in Markham – Unionville, ON stepped down at the request of party headquarters, based on his unwillingness to comply with their guidelines for candidates speaking with local media, after an interview he gave on the allocation of infrastructure spending received widespread and unwanted attention.

A few other candidates were nominated during the week, and a whole slew of them will be nominated tomorrow, including in two contested Liberal nominations down east: South Shore – St. Margaret's, NS and Miramichi, NB. I'll be entering everything on Saturday evening, when I get back from the Beau's All-Natural Brewing Company's 1st Annual Oktoberfest in Vankleek Hill (George Wendt, better known as "Norm" from the Cheers TV show, will be the special guest ... really!).

I apologize for the light blogging this week, and the somewhat lacklustre post tonight, however it's the first one I've had to compile without my silent co-author ... our darling little kitty-cat, who used to curl up next to my laptop late at night while I worked on the database, got very sick, very suddenly, and alas had to move on to greener pastures earlier today. Never one for getting all soppy and kitschy about pets, her loss has actually hit me pretty hard.

Folks in Ottawa were also marking the passing of another comrade-in-arms and/or worthy opponent this week: long-time Liberal Whip's Assistant Richard Wackid, who received a diagnosis of ALS just last year, at far too young an age. Wackid's loss, along with that of legendary House Leader's assistant and procedural counsellor Jerry Yanover, has been a bit of a double whammy for their colleagues. We send our sympathies to his family, friends and compatriots.

Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Candidates Stepping Down, Conservatives, Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, Greens, Liberals, NDP

Lots of nomination news to catch up on towards the end of the week and over the weekend. Let's catch up with some meetings that have already been held, starting with the first one:

• Surrey North, BC - Several readers got in touch to let us know about this nomination meeting we had apparently missed last Sunday, where the NDP nominated Jasbir Sandhu, a restauranteur and associate of the Justice Institute in New Westminster, who is best known for his activism for reparations and an apology in Parliament regarding the Komagata Maru incident. Sandhu will now face first-time Conservative M.P. Dona Marie Cadman, who was elected on the retirement of one-term NDP M.P. Penny Priddy, who herself was elected after the unfortunate passing of former Reform-Alliance-turned-Independent M.P. and Cadman's late husband, Chuck Cadman. The riding was settled by a margin of just 3.2% last time around, with both Cadman and the NDP's Rachid Arab spending some 85% of the limit, with Liberal candidate Marc Muhammad much further back, spending 48% of the limit and obtaining just 15% of the vote. Of the 3 Surrey ridings, Surrey North has the highest proportion of immigrants and visible minorities (including 30.33% South Asian), and the lowest incomes according to nearly every income census measure. It also contains two provincial ridings (Surrey-Whalley and Surrey-Green Timbers) which went overwhelmingly NDP in the recent provincial election. Thus a contest between a Conservative incumbent and local icon on the one hand, and a strong NDP challenger on the other, should be a very interesting study throughout the campaign.
  
• Vancouver Island North, BC - Thanks to a follower on Twitter for bringing a couple of additional clippings to our attention regarding the Liberal nomination meeting held last Monday, September 21, where lawyer and former municipal councillor Mike Holland was acclaimed. Liberals are hoping to improve on their 2008 performance in this riding, where they fell to 4.2% amid a tight two-way race between former NDP M.P. Catherine Bell, and former and returning Conservative M.P. John Duncan. We earlier reported that Bell is planning to run once again for the NDP. Holland told the Comox Valley Echo that he didn't care "whether my votes come from John Duncan or Catherine Bell", he just wanted to make sure that "moderate voters who don't fit either camp" had a voice. Examining the shifts in raw vote between 2006 and 2008, however, it does seem clear that Bell held her vote for the NDP, while the Conservative's Duncan found another 3,000 votes out of the 5,000 fewer votes obtained by the Liberals, with the Greens picking up the rest. This is in marked contrast to the shifts which occurred between 2004 and 2006, where the NDP and Conservative benefitted fairly equally from the earlier 10 percentage point drop in Liberal vote. (Note that the two periods can't be directly compared using raw votes, since the riding's population increased between them). Holland is hoping to regain his party's vote share from the campaign run by Noor Ahmed in 2004, he says, but if he's successful in that endeavour, would we expect to see any improvements come from out of the Conservative or NDP vote? Again, another interesting study for the forthcoming campaign.
• Papineau, QC - The Liberals held a series of three nomination meetings for Montréal incumbent MPs this past week, the first of which saw first-time Liberal M.P. Justin Trudeau acclaimed for a second run in this north Montréal riding, this past Sunday, September 20. Trudeau, whose office was recently broken into and office computer stolen, will most probably be facing a rematch with former Bloc Québécois M.P. Vivian Barbot whom he defeated by 2.8% of the vote last time, in a riding that has switched back and forth between the Liberals and Bloc in each of the last 3 elections by very narrow margins. Barbot announced earlier this month that she intended to run again, although no nomination meeting has been scheduled as yet that I know of.
  
• Honoré-Mercier, QC - The next meeting saw three-term Liberal M.P. Pablo Rodriguez acclaimed for a fourth run in this north Montréal riding, on Tuesday, September 22. While Rodriguez faced tighter contests against the Bloc Québécois in 2004 and 2006, he was able to pull ahead quite a bit more in the last election, managing a 15.7% margin as compared with 3.4% and 5.7% on his two earlier outings.
  
• Westmount – Ville-Marie, QC - The third meeting unfolded on Thursday, September 24 in this downtown riding, where first-time Liberal M.P. Marc Garneau was renominated by acclamation. While the NDP had had high hopes for this riding -- with their star candidate former CBC Radio host Anne Lagacé Dowson and the opportunity to wage a traditional NDP by-election campaign -- in the end a general election was called, eclipsing the by-election and producing a comfortable win for Garneau, who obtained 46.5% of the vote to Lagacé Dowson's 22.9% (still her party's 3rd best performance of any riding in Québec). No word whether she plans to run again, or who any of the other candidates here might be as yet.
  
• Richmond – Arthabaska, QC - Also on Thursday, three-term Bloc Québécois M.P. André Bellevance was acclaimed for a fifth run in this riding, according to La Nouvelle/l'Union. He lost on his first outing in 2000 to former Progressive Conservative M.P. André Bachand, but won the seat in 2004 after Bachand's retirement, facing first a Liberal and later two Conservative second-place challengers in his three successful campaigns. This time he will face recently nominated Liberal Louis Bérubé. No other candidates have been named as yet.
  
• Oshawa, ON - Probably the most significant nomination for the NDP on Thursday, September 24 was the acclamation of CAW Local 222 president Chris Buckley in one of the traditional auto industry ridings in southern Ontario, which was at one time the preserve of then-NDP Leader Ed Broadbent. Buckley's name was placed into nomination by former federal and provincial candidate and CUPE Ontario president Sid Ryan, and Oshawa municipal councillor and former Broadbent aide, Nester Pidwerbecki, according to NewsDurhamRegion.com. I've run down its electoral history extensively already here, but suffice it to say that the NDP has come within 5 7 percentage points of taking the riding in each of the last three campaigns, and does not appear keen to give up trying; while the Conservatives recently brought in Senator Mike Duffy to rally the troops for three-time Conservative M.P. Colin Carrie. No Liberal candidate is on the horizon as yet, while the Greens have nominated first-time candidate Gail Bates. The nomination is significant for the NDP, of course, both because of the riding's history and because of the party's strained relationship with the CAW under its previous president, Basil J. ("Buzz") Hargrove. Moreover, even within the CAW, Local 222 has often gone its own way: it was the very last local in Canada to split with the UAW and join the CAW, and in the early 1990s sought to affiliate with the Reform Party and break with the NDP. Buckley's candidacy, along with that of Malcolm Allen in Welland, and the recent ascendancy to the presidency of the party by CAW staffer Peggy Nash, all signal a rapprochement between the CAW and the NDP, much as the CAW has moved to strengthen its relationship with other OFL member unions over the past year under the new CAW president Ken Lewenza.
  
• Windsor West, ON - A much less surprising nomination in another auto town occurred the same night, when four-term NDP M.P. Brian Masse was acclaimed for another run here. He will be facing the same Conservative opponent as last time, Lisa Lumley, who moved into second place ahead of the Liberals. Masse was re-elected with over 50% of the vote in 2008, however, having increased his vote share in each of his last three campaigns.
  
• Vancouver East, BC - Much further west, another NDP incumbent was renominated later the same evening, as we learned from five-term M.P. Libby Davies' tweet. The nomination meeting appeared to have been moved up to Thursday from its original date of Saturday, October 17, as Davies tweeted, in order to "be ready". Given that Davies is her party's House Leader, we might wonder what she knows that we don't know about how events are set to unfold in the coming weeks. To date Davies has no nominated or even identified opponents in this riding, which she has won with over 50% of the vote on each of her last three outings.
  
• St. John's East, NL - NDP M.P. Jack Harris was acclaimed the following night at the other end of the country, according to the news release on his Facebook page. No challengers have emerged from other parties as yet. Harris took nearly 75% of the vote in 2008 here.
  
• Ahuntsic, QC - One M.P. who would probably give her eye teeth for 75% of the vote is two-term Bloc Québécois member Maria Mourani, who has won her riding by 834 and 423 votes respectively in each of her last two campaigns, representing margins of victory of less than 2% of the vote each time. Mourani was renominated by acclamation on Friday night, according to the Courrier Ahuntsic, and will probably be facing newly recruited Liberal candidate Noushig Eloyan who recently resigned from the municipal Vision Montréal slate at Liberal Québec lieutenant Denis Coderre's urging to seek the nomination here, as we reported earlier.
  
• Welland, ON - NDP Leader Jack Layton joined his first-time M.P. Malcolm Allen at a series of events around the Niagara earlier Saturday (September 26), followed by his nomination meeting at which Allen was acclaimed. Allen now faces former Liberal M.P. John Maloney who was nominated to run again back on June 19, and freshly nominated Conservative candidate Leanna Villella (I apologize for mis-spelling Ms. Villella's first name as Leanne in a previous blogpost). The riding had been the 3rd closest 3-way race of the 2006 election, and moved up to the #2 spot in the same category this past election, a fact which undoubtedly explains Layton's presence in the riding and at Allen's nomination meeting.
  
• Winnipeg Centre, MB - Also on Saturday, Liberals met in this downtown Winnipeg riding to acclaim community development specialist Allan Wise as their candidate. Wise now joins already-nominated Conservative candidate Bev Pitura, Green candidate Jacqueline Romanow, and eventually five-term NDP M.P. Pat Martin, whose original nomination meeting scheduled for Friday has apparently been postponed due to events related to the provincial NDP leadership campaign in which one of his provincial MLA counterparts in the riding, Andrew Swan, is running.
  
• Richmond, BC - Probably the most significant nomination meeting for the Liberals this weekend was the well-attended and very hotly contested nomination in this riding, which pitted two former MPs and long-time rivals against each other and another former nomination contestant from a neighbouring riding. While former MPs Chan and Peschisolido had challenged one another for the Liberal nomination once before in 2004, when Chan came out on top of Peschisolido (then a sitting M.P. but one who had crossed the floor from the Canadian Alliance); this time it was Peschisolido who was successful. And in the cruelest of ironies, it was largely Chan's supporters who probably put him there, once their own candidate dropped off the ballot after placing a distant third behind both newcomer Mason Loh and Peschisolido, reported the Richmond Review late Saturday evening. Indeed one report had Loh winning the first ballot, with Peschisolido only taking the lead once Chan dropped off. Just 1,500 of the expected 4,000 eligible voters cast a ballot, the Review says. Both unsuccessful chinese candidates pledged their support to the italian victor for the coming election. The riding is currently represented by first-time Conservative M.P. Alice Wong.
  

Well, that's enough for me tonight. I'll come back and write the upcoming meetings and other nomination news for you on Sunday morning.

Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Bloc Québécois, Greens, Liberals, NDP

There's a fair bit of news to catch up on in the likely by-election ridings today, starting on the east coast:

• Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, NS - We earlier reported that there would be a contested NDP nomination here on Thursday, September 24. However events have continued to unfold, according to the Babble thread on the riding, with the result that 2008 candidate Karen Olsson has decided to withdraw and support wild blueberry farmer and Truro town sustainability coordinator, Mark Austin, who is now expected to be acclaimed at a rescheduled nomination meeting on Wednesday, September 30. Meantime, the Green Party acclaimed addictions counsellor and substitute teacher Jason Blanch as their candidate on Tuesday, September 1. Thanks to the GPC for contacting us with this information. With Austin's nomination for the NDP, the riding will have a full slate in place, at least so far as the major parties are concerned. The by-election here must be called by Tuesday, October 31 at the latest, for a date on or after Monday, December 9.
• Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, QC - New Democrats in this riding have scheduled a nomination meeting for Tuesday, October 6, a reader writes to advise. No further details are available for the moment, however. The recently nominated Conservative candidate, Bernard Généreux, notes that a by-election must be called here by Tuesday, October 13, and believes that, if elected, he will then have about six months to prove himself before the next general election which he expects to occur in the spring of 2010, reports InfoDimanche.com. The seat became vacant on the resignation of long-time Bloc Québécois M.P. Paul Crête, who tried unsuccessfully this spring to win the provincial seat opened up by the resignation of ADQ leader Mario Dumont. Crête then withdrew his name for consideration as the Bloc nominee for the by-election, and has since announced he will host a show on a local Kamouraska TV station. Meanwhile, Marcel Catellier, the retiring mayor of Cap-Saint-Ignace, is confirming rumours that he has been approached by Liberal Party officials to consider running, but tells Le Peuple Cote Sud that he hasn't made any decisions about his future as yet. No Green Party candidate has surfaced as yet in this riding. Bloc Québécois candidate Nancy Gagnon is expected to be acclaimed tomorrow (Sunday, September 27). The by-election must be called here by no later than Wednesday, November 18, for a date on or after Monday, December 29.
  
• Hochelaga, QC - While one prospective Bloc Québécois nomination candidate has stepped aside in favour of Bloc Leader Gilles Duceppe's preferred candidate, Daniel Paillé, another one is not going anywhere, reports Les Nouvelles Hochelaga-Maissonneuve. Former aide to former Bloc M.P. Réal Ménard, Benoît Demuy, had been selling memberships since June, but after meeting with Duceppe on September 4, decided to withdraw from the race. Not so for Jean Baribeau, a 25-year resident of the riding and math teacher who describes himself as a "sovereignist and confirmed social democrat" who "has politics in his blood" and thinks people in his community don't want a "parachute candidate". Baribeau had been seeking a meeting with Duceppe all summer while he was selling membership cards, he says, but never got any reply. Meanwhile the Bloc has brought in veteran organizer Patrick Marais to help Paillé with his nomination campaign, according to Le Devoir. Thus there will be at least two candidates for the Bloc nomination meeting, whenever it is held. No word on any prospective Liberal, Conservative or Green candidates as yet, but nominated NDP candidate Jean-Claude Rocheleau has evidently been following the Bloc race, and recently highlighted his own local roots to Les Nouvelles as well.

The Hochelaga by-election can be called as early as this Tuesday, September 29 while the New Westminster – Coquitlam, BC by-election must be called before Tuesday, October 13 (and the New Westminster News Leader reports that all the candidates there are "ready to go"). Thus we will be having at least two and as many as four by-elections this autumn, which could still be eclipsed by a general election, should the government fall in the meantime.

So far, the NDP has a 2 nominated candidates and 2 scheduled nomination meetings; while the Conservatives are nominated in 3/4 ridings, but have no scheduled meeting as yet in the 4th. The Bloc is set to go in one Québec riding, and has a contested but still unscheduled nomination on its hands in the other. The Liberals and Greens are both apparently ready in the 2 ridings outside Québec, and the Liberals appear to have a prospect in one of the Québec ridings. Finally, the Christian Heritage Party will be running its new leader in the Nova Scotia seat.

As soon as the by-elections are called, I'll be moving the Pundits' Guide website into by-election mode, meaning that we'll be tracking the by-elections at the top of the main page, and moving the general election nominations off to the "Search the Database" page (see "Queries for Most Recent Election") for the duration.

Labels: Bloc Québécois, Conservatives, Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, Greens, Hochelaga, Liberals, Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, NDP