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41st General Election Nominations Progress Chart

Nominations Progress - 41st General Election

Seats with First-Time Incumbents
 YTNTNUBCABSKMBONQCNBNSPENLTotPctWomPct
Seats1113628141410675101147308  
Lib11 1584790468103619965%6532.7%
NDP 1 191086711026 213544%4734.8%
Grn1 116187127950273 19664%5829.6%
BQ        40    4013%1025.0%
Cons  1302813127721543 19463%3719.1%
Ind     1 11    31%133.3%
Oth    1  1     21%150.0%

BLOG -- Guide to the Pundits' Guide

Tuesday, October 20, 2009

Facebook and Social Media Watch: By-Election Edition

During the last set of by-elections (the ones that were pre-empted by the call of the general election), we started a feature called "Facebook Watch". Since then, Twitter has also become an important vehicle of communication for campaigns, and the last election proved the power of YouTube beyond any doubt.

So, with the official list of candidates set to be released at 2:00 PM Wednesday, here's a first round-up of the various candidates' activities on some of the major social media/Web 2.0 sites: Facebook (full-service social media site), Twitter (140-character status updates), YouTube (video sharing) and Flickr (photo-sharing), along with the counts of their Friends/Supporters (for Facebook) or Followers (for Twitter) as of about 12:30 AM on Wednesday morning Oct. 21.

PartyNWC'ChlagMIKRCCMV
LibFacebook (101)
Twitter (104)
Flickr

Facebook (4)


Facebook (122)


NDPFacebook (407)
Twitter (139)
YouTube
Facebook (226)
Twitter (16)


Facebook (149)
Twitter (17)

GrnFacebook (25)
Twitter (43)
YouTube


Facebook (133)
Twitter (11)

BQ
Facebook (194)
Facebook (124)

ConsFacebook (253)

Facebook (66)
Facebook (346)
Oth


Facebook (39)
Twitter (20)

The first thing to note is that many of the Twitter follower counts went up by 1 tonight, as I started following any of the candidates I had not found before (that's me @punditsguide).

Next thing to say is that New Westminster – Coquitlam, BC (NWC) is the leader in social media campaigning, with 10 candidate accounts, although that's also likely related to the fact that the seat became vacant first, and has had a full slate of candidates for most of the summer. The next most active riding is Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, NS (CCMV), with 8 candidate accounts, while the Québec ridings follow with 3 each.

The most active party in the social media domain at the moment is the NDP, with 7 candidate accounts across the 4 ridings, followed by the Liberals with 5 candidate accounts (although Liberal Ken Beck Lee in NWC is the only candidate to have a profile on the professional social-networking site LinkedIn, which I decided not to include this go-around, mainly due to lack of time on my part), and the Greens with another 5. The Conservatives have 3 candidate accounts activated, while the Bloc and others (Christian Heritage Party leader Jim Hnatiuk, who is running in CCMV) have 2 each.

In terms of Facebook friends / supporters (it's a different term, depending on the type of Facebook page, but I'm just using the generic term 'friend', since it's stuck over the past few years), the NDP candidates are ahead of the pack in NWC and Hochelaga, while the Conservative candidates are ahead in MIKR and CCMV (where in particular their candidate was nominated quite some time ago).

And turning to Twitter followers, again the NDP candidates are ahead in NWC and Hochelaga, while the Christian Heritage leader is ahead in CCMV.

The NDP candidate in Hochelaga, Jean-Claude Rocheleau is tweeting quite a bit, and doing so exclusively in french. He does not appear to have many followers. But sometime around 10 days ago, a Twitter account entitled "JeanClaudeNDP" invited a lot of people to follow him/her/it, including yours truly and quite a few others. It invited its followers to complete a short survey, saying that the NDP needed their help. Needless to say, the link to this "survey" likely contained a virus, and the account has been tweeting spam ever since. Most of its followers have since vanished, but I'm sure I wasn't the only one to think I had a story that the NDP by-election candidate had been infected by a virus. Mr. Rocheleau's true Twitter account is "jcrocheleau" (linked to above).

Incidentally, I'm indebted to the legwork already undertaken by the Twitter aggregator sites, notably PoliTwitter.ca which maintains detailed profiles of Tweeting candidates and other politicos. TweetCommons.com focuses on the conversations between tweeting politicians (or candidates) and citizens. And of course David Akin maintains the Political Twits directory of Hill denizens who tweet for a living.

We'll check back again next week to see how much progress has been made in cyberspace by the candidates, so if you have information about a tweeting, facebooking, youtubing, flickring candidate, please do get in touch.

Meanwhile we'll be waiting for a news release from Elections Canada, expected some time Wednesday afternoon, announcing the final list of nominated candidates for the 4 by-election ridings. Election day is now less than 3 weeks away.

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Saturday, September 13, 2008

Facebook Watch: E-30

Facebook played a public role in Week 1 of the campaign, where supporters of the participation of Green Party Elizabeth May in the televised leaders debate used Jack Layton's Facebook page to advance their campaign for her inclusion.

In addition, as noted in the excellent Election blog "The Trough" at canada.com (and I would say that even if I weren't also working there myself), for every Facebook page praising a politician you can find at least one more tearing them down. The Trough is written by Chris Lackner and Richard Warnica, who in a former life got his start with the election blog at BC's online stalwart, theTyee.ca.

Here are the latest counts of Facebook Supporters then (from around 8:30AM, Saturday September 13):
  1. Jack Layton - 15,441 (up from 11,886 on July 30)
  2. Stephen Harper - 13,552 (up from 10,307)
  3. Stéphane Dion - 12,749 (up from 11,584)
  4. Elizabeth May - 2,797 (up from 2,208)
  5. Gilles Duceppe - 1,059 (up from 729)

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Sunday, September 7, 2008

Facebook Watch: Leaders' Rankings Change

Today Conservative Leader Stephen Harper moved ahead of Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion in the number of Supporters he has on Facebook. Last month NDP Leader Jack Layton also passed Dion. Harper's support has been growing steadily over the last month, and experienced a big (pre-election?) push in the last few days.

Here are the latest counts of Facebook Supporters then (from around 6:30PM, Saturday September 6):
  1. Jack Layton - 12,613 (up from 11,886 on July 30)
  2. Stephen Harper - 11,916 (up from 10,307)
  3. Stéphane Dion - 11,825 (up from 11584)
  4. Elizabeth May - 2136 (down from 2208, but up from last viewing)
  5. Gilles Duceppe - 812 (up from 729)

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Sunday, August 31, 2008

Facebook Watch: By-election Edition Winners

Here were the latest Facebook counts from August 29.

This was the last set of numbers I will be collecting on the "by-election" ridings, since I'm now pretty well convinced the by-elections themselves will be superceded by events, namely the calling of a general election sometime this week.

In fact, in the absence of actual by-election votes, this is the closest to a result those campaigns will be able to get for their by-election campaign efforts, since their campaigns will now be rolled right into the general election campaign.

Count of Facebook Supporters, etc., August 29, 2008, 'Round Midnight

29-Aug-08LibNDPGrnBQCons
Leader11,687
(+41)
12,373
(+86)
2,075
(+18)
765
(+25)
10,778
(+109)
St-L227
(+15)
192
(+3)
68
(+23)
<-><->
WVM380
(+3)
533
(+8)
239
(+32)
120
(-1)
61
(+0)
Guelph279
(+1)
875
(+11)
662
(+90)

175
(+2)
DVW238
(+11)
164
(+7)
137
(+37)

87
(+0)

Conservative Leader Stephen Harper was the top overall mover in the last installment of "Facebook Watch: By-Election Edition", moving up by 109 supporters to within 909 and 1595 of Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion and NDP Leader Jack Layton respectively.

Guelph Green candidate Mike Nagy again leads the by-election candidates in growth, although he never reached the levels of support for his NDP competitor in Guelph, Tom King, who has led the pack in Facebook supporter counts since we first started collecting and reporting on this data. I could never locate a Facebook presence for either Bloc Québécois candidate Josée Beaudin nor Conservative candidate Patrick Clune in Saint-Lambert.

So, without any further fanfare, the winners of this month-long experiment are:

Winners by Category/Riding and Supporter Count in Facebook Watch, July 30 - August 29, 2008


Facebook SupportersMost PopularMarginOver
Leaders
count:
pct:
30-day ↑:
pct:
Jack Layton
12,373
32.8%
487
4.1%

686
1.8%

Stéphane Dion
11,687
31.0%
103
0.9%
St-Lamb
count:
pct:
30-day ↑:
pct:
Roxanne Stanners
227
46.6%
71
45.5%

35
7.2%

Richard Marois
192
39.4%
121
170.4%
Wst-VM
count:
pct:
30-day ↑:
pct:
Anne Lagacé Dowson
533
40.0%
135
33.9%

153
11.5%

Marc Garneau
380
28.5%
75
24.6%
Guelph
count:
pct:
30-day ↑:
pct:
Tom King
875
43.9%
147
20.2%

213
10.7%

Mike Nagy
662
33.2%
510
335.5%
DV Wst
count:
pct:
13-day ↑:
pct:
Rob Oliphant
238
38.0%
37
18.4%

74
11.8%

David Sparrow
164
26.2%
42
34.4%

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Monday, August 25, 2008

Facebook Watch: August 25

Here are the latest Facebook counts.


Count of Facebook Supporters, etc., August 25, 2008, 'Round Midnight

25-Aug-08LibNDPGrnBQCons
Leader11,646
(+17)
12,287
(+50)
2,057
(+5)
740
(+9)
10,669
(+60)
St-L212
(+27)
189
(+0)
45
(+21)
<-><->
WVM377
(+4)
525
(+9)
207
(+26)
121
(+0)
61
(+1)
Guelph278
(+2)
864
(+10)
572
(+148)

173
(+2)
DVW227
(+14)
157
(+19)
100
(+51)

87
(+0)


Guelph, ON Green candidate Mike Nagy takes the top mover spot tonight (up 148 supporters), easily the best-performing of the four Green candidates. Conservative Leader Stephen Harper leads the leaders in gains tonight, followed by NDP Leader Jack Layton. Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion is also resuming some upward movement.

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Thursday, August 21, 2008

Facebook Watch: August 21

Here are the latest Facebook counts. Sorry they're a day late.

Count of Facebook Supporters, etc., August 21, 2008, 'Round Midnight

21-Aug-08LibNDPGrnBQCons
Leader11,629
(+9)
12,237
(+150)
2,052
(+4)
731
(+1)
10,609
(+66)
St-L185
(+25)
189
(+5)
24
(+6)
<-><->
WVM373
(+5)
516
(+14)
181
(+4)
121
(+0)
60
(+1)
Guelph276
(+2)
854
(+17)
424
(+34)

171
(+3)
DVW213
(+12)
136
(+14)
49
(--)

87
(+12)

NDP Leader Jack Layton was the big mover in tonight's check-in (up 150 new supporters), probably the result of his party's recent promotion of their new Facebook application "Unite4Change" (see earlier "Party Web Watch" post here). Conservative Leader Stephen Harper followed with a jump of 66 new supporters. Green Leader Elizabeth May and Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion seem stalled over the past few tabulations, and notably the latter is in danger of being passed by the Conservative Leader who has been steadily gaining.

Elsewhere, Guelph, ON Green candidate Mike Nagy is continuing his upward movement, having achieved just over half the supporters of front-runner Tom King, his NDP competitor. Also, the Liberal candidate in Saint-Lambert, QC, Roxanne Stanners, is showing some movement now, and has pulled almost equal with her NDP counterpart, Richard Marois. And making her first appearance in the Facebook Watch counts tonight is Don Valley West, ON Green candidate Georgina Wilcock.

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Monday, August 18, 2008

Facebook Watch: August 17

Here are the latest counts, including, for the first time, the Facebook pages of candidates in the by-election recently called for Don Valley West, ON on Monday, September 22.


Count of Facebook Supporters, etc., August 17, 2008, 'Round Midnight

17-Aug-08LibNDPGrnBQCons
Leader11,620
(+13)
12,087
(+28)
2,048
(+13)
730
(+3)
10,543
(+63)
St-L160
(+0)
184
(+6)
18
(+4)
<-><->
WVM368
(+7)
502
(+10)
177
(+7)
121
(+0)
59
(+3)
Guelph274
(+3)
837
(+24)
390
(+74)

168
(+5)
DVW201
(--)
122
(--)
<->
75
(--)


The top mover in this edition of Facebook Watch is Guelph Green candidate Mike Nagy, followed by Conservative Leader Stephen Harper.

Don Valley West Liberal candidate Rob Oliphant opens that race in the lead, followed by NDP candidate David Sparrow and Conservative candidate John B.W. Carmichael. Don Valley West Green candidate Georgina Wilcock does not appear to have a Facebook page, group or personal profile. No other changes in rank occurred, and the NDP continues to stay ahead in all other categories.

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Wednesday, August 13, 2008

Facebook Watch: August 13

Here are the latest counts, including the new Facebook page of the recently named Green Party candidate in Saint-Lambert, QC, Diane Joubert.

Count of Facebook Supporters, etc., August 13, 2008, 'Round Midnight

13-Aug-08LibNDPGrnBQCons
Leader11,607
(+5)
12,059
(+23)
2,035
(+0)
727
(+1)
10,480
(+27)
St-L160
(+1)
178
(+10)
14
(+14)
<-><->
WVM361
(+3)
492
(+11)
170
(+4)
121
(+0)
56
(+0)
Guelph271
(+9)

813
(+20)

316
(+10)

163
(+13)


No-one has moved a lot since Sunday night, no-one has switched position, and no-one is falling back. The NDP remains in the lead in all four cases. The Liberals are running second everywhere but Guelph, ON.

I've also amended the Facebook Watch for August 10, since although I recorded Conservative Leader Stephen Harper's increase of 48 supporters there, I did not remember to actually augment his total (the original post said 10,405, but it should have read 10,453).

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Monday, August 11, 2008

Facebook Watch: August 10

Here are the latest counts, taken around 2:30 AM. [UPDATE: Conservative Leader Stephen Harper's total amended to reflect the reported hike of 48. Sorry about that.]

Count of Facebook Supporters, etc., August 6 10, 2008, 'Round Midnight

10-Aug-08LibNDPGrnBQCons
Leader11,602
(-1)
12,036
(+62)
2,035
(+3)
726
(-3)
10,453
(+48)
St-L159
(+1)
168
(+29)

<-><->
WVM358
(+9)
481
(+20)
166
(+3)
121
(+14)
56
(+0)
Guelph262
(+10)

793
(+22)

296
(+45)

150
(+9)

A few of the rankings have changed within the ridings: Guelph, ON Green candidate Mike Nagy has moved into second place ahead of his Liberal competitor Frank Valeriote, but well behind the NDP's Tom King, while in Saint-Lambert, QC, New Democrat candidate Richard Marois has moved into the lead, ahead of Liberal Roxanne Stanners. In Westmount – Ville-Marie, QC, New Democrat Anne Lagacé Dowson remains ahead of Liberal Marc Garneau, with the other three candidates trailing much further back. NDP Leader Jack Layton is the top mover in this edition of Facebook watch and leads the leaders, with Conservative Leader Stephen Harper also making a big move upwards.

No Facebook pages have yet been identified for the three other Saint-Lambert candidates: Bloquiste Josée Beaudin, Conservative Patrick Clune, and newly named Green candidate Diane Joubert.

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Wednesday, August 6, 2008

Facebook Watch: August 6

Several campaigns and their supporters have been urging folks to make sure and sign up on Facebook, so let's see what impact if any this is having ...

Count of Facebook Supporters, etc., August 6, 2008, 'Round Midnight


06-Aug-08LibNDPGrnBQCons
Leader11,603
(+12)
11,974
(+43)
2,032
(+0)
729
(-1)
10,405
(+36)
St-L158
(+1)
139
(+24)
<-><->
WVM349
(+17)
461
(+22)
163
(+1)
107
(+6)
56
(+0)
Guelph252
(+1)

771
(+12)

251
(+75)
141
(+11)

Well, looks like the direct appeal was succesful for Guelph, ON Green Party candidate Mike Nagy, who increased his tally by 75 supporters in 3 days. Guelph Conservative Party candidate Gloria Kovach also moved up, but perhaps not as much as her Facebook booster had hoped just yet.

Meantime NDP Leader Jack Layton and Conservative Leader Stephen Harper are continuing their week-long climb, with Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion also growing somewhat and holding on to second place.

If anyone can send along the Facebook co-ordinates of either the Conservative (Patrick Clune) or Bloc Québécois (OOPSDATE: forgot to add her name ... Joseé Beaudin) candidates in Saint-Lambert, QC, meanwhile, it would be a help since I can't find either one there.

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Sunday, August 3, 2008

Facebook Watch: August 3

Given the interest in this particular set of counts in my inbox the past few days, here's an update for all you Facebook watchers.

Count of Facebook Supporters, etc., August 3, 2008, 'Round Midnight


03-Aug-08LibNDPGrnBQCons
Leader11,591
(+7)
11,931
(+45)
2,032
(-176)
730
(+1)
10,369
(+62)
St-L157
(+1)
115
(+44)
<-><->
WVM332
(+27)
439
(+41)
162
(+10)
101
(-1)
56
(+0)
Guelph251
(+7)

759
(+31)

176
(+24)
130
(+9)

Saint-Lambert Bloc candidate Josée Beaudin and the Conservative candidate Patrick Clune are still absent in my searches, or at least I cannot identify which entry they would be if they're there at all. Again, the Green Party has yet to identify its candidate in Saint-Lambert, and of course the Bloc Québécois will not field a candidate in Guelph.

Topping the news in our second "Facebook Watch" is the rather sudden and steep drop in support for Green Party leader Elizabeth May, even as her two by-election candidates move up somewhat. Meanwhile Conservative leader, Prime Minister Stephen Harper is making a fairly sizeable move upwards. NDP leader Jack Layton and his candidates continue to move up smartly, while Liberal leader Stéphane Dion and his candidates also follow an upwards trend, although of lesser magnitude.

As before, clicking on any of the numbers in the table cells above should take you to the relevant Facebook resource. If not, please report the broken link to me here.

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Friday, August 1, 2008

News briefs

A few items worth noting today:

  • The Chief Electoral Officer has received a notice from the Speaker of a vacancy in Don Valley West, ON, Liberal M.P. John Godfrey having now resigned as expected on his revised schedule. The earliest a by-election can now be held in that riding is, as previously calculated here, on Monday September 22.
  • The Liberals will open the polls in 10 locations for a 6 1/2 hour period on Thursday, August 14, for members to select their candidate in Desnethé – Missinippi – Churchill River, SK, facing newly elected Conservative M.P. Robert Clarke.
  • The Green Party will have until nominations close on Monday, August 18 to name its candidate for the Saint-Lambert, QC by-election currently underway. The full list of candidates for all three by-election ridings will be released by Elections Canada on Thursday August 21.
  • The registered political parties' 2nd Quarter Financial Returns are now available on the Elections Canada website. Readers have asked if this data will be included on the Pundits' Guide, to which the answer is: yes, eventually. My first focus has been election results and finance, but of course what happens between elections is clearly of relevance, so I will be getting to it sooner or later.
  • Facebook: to date the single most controversial item of data posted here. I've received several emails, and it's also being blogged about here. No-one believes it's important and yet everyone has written to me about it. Think we'll be collecting this data for awhile then!

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Wednesday, July 30, 2008

Facebook Watch: By-election edition

Online organizing is considered an essential tactic on the modern political battleground. Unfortunately, we have very few measurable metrics available in order to assess the parties' relative prowess in this domain.

One simple one to track is the number of "Supporters" a politician has on her or his Facebook Politician page. Some candidates have organized Facebook groups instead, which have "Members". Finally, a few candidates use their personal profiles rather than political pages, in which case they have "Friends".

So, here is a count of the Supporters/Members/Friends of the party leaders and their candidates in each of the three by-election ridings, as of around midnight July 30. [I'm still on crappy dialup, and so the data were excruciatingly slow to collect tonight.]

Count of Facebook Supporters, etc., July 30, 2008, Around Midnight

30-Jul-08LibNDPGrnBQCons
Leader11,58411,8862,20872910,307
St-L15671<-><->
WVM30539815210256
Guelph244728152121

Neither Saint-Lambert Bloc candidate Josée Beaudin nor the Conservative candidate Patrick Clune have any apparent presence on Facebook as yet. Likely Facebook is less of a phenomenon in francophone life, although if anyone knows of a good french equivalent that is in wide use in Québec, please write and let me know. Note that the Green Party has yet to identify its candidate in Saint-Lambert, and of course the Bloc Québécois will not field a candidate in Guelph.

The main observation from our first "Facebook Watch" is the dominance of the NDP in the Leaders' sweepstakes and two of the three by-election ridings. Jack Layton has apparently been gaining on Stéphane Dion in the number of Facebook Supporters for several weeks now, and passed him sometime last week in the face of an observed last-minute surge by the Liberals.

Does this matter? Is Facebook important? Does the number of one's Facebook "friends" actually predict anything?

Well, one thing's for sure: it's axiomatic in politics that if a politician is ahead on a measure, it is by definition important; and if they're behind, it's meaningless. For the rest of us, we'll just watch the numbers for a few weeks, and see if they predict anything. If not (like my previous series of "Weekly Top 10" Google searches reaching the Pundits' Guide, which really only demonstrated that my site was the best source of information for little-known candidates at the time), well I'll just drop it.

By the way, clicking on any of the numbers in the table cells above should take you to the relevant Facebook resource. If not, please report the broken link to me here.

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