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Home: Blog--Guide to the Pundits' Guide
41st General Election Nominations Progress Chart

Nominations Progress - 41st General Election

Seats with First-Time Incumbents
 YTNTNUBCABSKMBONQCNBNSPENLTotPctWomPct
Seats1113628141410675101147308  
Lib11 1584790468103619965%6532.7%
NDP 1 191086711026 213544%4734.8%
Grn1 116187127950273 19664%5829.6%
BQ        40    4013%1025.0%
Cons  1302813127721543 19463%3719.1%
Ind     1 11    31%133.3%
Oth    1  1     21%150.0%

BLOG -- Guide to the Pundits' Guide

Friday, January 1, 2010

2010 Electoral Data Release Dates

Following on last year's popular calendar of election data release dates, here's a list of approximate release dates for major items of political and election data to keep an eye out for in 2010. As before, I'll update it throughout the year as required.
  • Thu 31 Dec 2009 - The deadline for all remaining December 2006 Liberal leadership candidates to repay any loans relating to their campaigns, except for Michael Ignatieff (who had a June 30 deadline last year), and Ken Dryden (who was given until June 30 of this year). Note that only Bob Rae reported loans for the Spring 2009 Leadership Campaign, and his return reports that they were repaid in full by May 21, 2009.
  • Mon 3 Jan - 4th Quarter 2009 allowances will be paid to registered political parties. They reflect the distribution of votes in the 2008 General Election, and will be paid at the rate of $1.999 per vote, the same rate in effect since the April-June allowance was inflation adjusted at the end of July last year. I believe the annual inflation adjustment for the allowances was proposed to be removed in the last federal budget, after the Finance Minister rescinded his proposal to cancel them altogether, but I can't now find any consequential amendments to s.405.1 [adjustment for inflation] of the Elections Act.
  • Mon 1 Feb - 4th Quarter 2009 Financial Returns of registered parties should be available online as of this date.
  • By Tue 9 Feb - The Official Voting Results for the November 9 by-elections will be published (note that s.533 of the Elections Act requires they be published without delay for general elections, and no later than 90 days after the writ is returned for by-elections).
  • Mon 1 Mar - The CEO must publish the annual Inflation Adjustment Factors taking effect on April 1 (for s.405.1 [contribution limits and quarterly allowances] and for s.414 [election expense limits]) in the Canada Gazette.
  • By Tue 9 Mar - By-election Candidates' Election Campaign Returns are due for submission (per s.451(4)). Failure to file by elected candidates can lead to their suspension as MPs (per s.463(2)). After the returns are reviewed by Elections Canada, the final instalments if any of candidate rebates will be paid (per s.454), representing 60% of paid election expenses + 60% of paid candidate expenses, for any candidate incurring more than 30% of the election expense limit, and having obtained 10% or more of the valid ballots cast.
  • Fri 27 Mar - The CEO's Report on By-elections Held in 2009 is due to be tabled.
  • Tue 31 Mar - Elections Canada's 2010-2011 "Report on Plans and Priorities" (Part III of the Budget Estimates) is tabled, along with those of all other government departments and agencies.
  • Thu 1 Apr - 1st Quarter 2010 allowances will be paid to registered parties.
  • Mon 3 May - 1st Quarter 2010 Financial Returns of registered parties should be available online as of this date.
  • Mon 31 May - Deadline for registered EDAs to submit their 2008 Annual Financial Returns (per 403.35 (4)).
  • Tue 30 Jun - Deadline imposed on Liberal leadership candidate Ken Dryden to repay all outstanding leadership loans.
  • Wed 30 Jun - Deadline for registered parties to submit their 2009 Annual Financial Returns (per s.424(4)).
  • Thu 2 Jul - 2009 Annual Financial Returns and Financial Statements of registered parties should be available online by this date.
  • Fri 2 Jul - 2nd Quarter 2010 allowances paid
  • Fri 30 Jul - 2nd Quarter Financial Returns available online
  • Fri 1 Oct - 3rd Quarter 2010 allowances paid
  • Mon 1 Nov - 3rd Quarter Financial Returns available online

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Thursday, January 1, 2009

UPDATED: Lookahead to 2009: The Year in Political Data

Here is a list of approximate release dates for major items of political and election data to keep an eye out for in 2009. I'll update this post throughout the year with the actual dates, and links to the releases.

UPDATE: I've made a few additions below, including the submission deadlines for the Election Campaign Returns of Registered Parties (per s.429(3) of the Elections Act, 6 months after polling day) and Candidates (per s.451(4)(a), 4 months after polling day), the dates that Registered Parties and Candidates should receive their rebate payments, the deadline for Registered Electoral District Associations (EDAs; per s.403.35(4), within 5 months of the end of the year), and the date for publication of by the Chief Electoral Officer (CEO) of the annual Inflation Adjustment Factor (per s.414) in the Canada Gazette, which is the same date that Part III of the budget Estimates for Elections Canada and other government agencies should be tabled in the House of Commons.
  • Mon 5 Jan - 4th Quarter 2008 allowances were paid to registered political parties. These amounts will be the last ones to reflect the distribution of votes in the 2006 General Election, since (per s.435.01 of the Elections Act) the most recent general election was held during that quarter.
  • Sometime in Jan - The first instalment of reimbursements for Candidates' Election Expenses ("candidate rebates") will be paid (per s.464). They represent 15% of the candidate spending limit for all candidates obtaining 10% or better of the valid votes in their riding. Candidates must return any excess over 60% of their actual election expenses + personal expenses.
  • Mon 2 Feb - 4th Quarter 2008 Financial Returns of registered parties were available online as of this date.
  • Tue 3 Feb - Official Voting Results for the 40th General Election were released on this date (source; note that s.533 of the Elections Act requires they be published without delay for general elections, and no later than 90 days after the writ is returned for by-elections). The CEO's report on the election was tabled in the House of Commons the same day.
  • Fri 13 Feb - Candidates' Election Campaign Returns were due for submission. Failure to file by elected candidates can lead to their suspension as MPs (per s.463(2)). After the returns are reviewed by Elections Canada, the final instalments if any of candidate rebates will be paid (per s.454), representing 60% of paid election expenses + 60% of paid candidate expenses, for any candidate incurring more than 30% of the election expense limit, and having obtained 10% or more of the valid ballots cast.
  • Mon 2 Mar - The CEO published the annual Inflation Adjustment Factors taking effect on April 1 (1.142 for s.405.1 [contribution limits] and 1.251 for s.414 [election expense limits]) in the Canada Gazette.
  • Fri 27 Mar - The CEO's Report on By-elections Held in 2008 is due to be tabled.
  • Tue 31 Mar - Elections Canada's 2009-2010 "Report on Plans and Priorities" (Part III of the budget Estimates) is tabled, along with those of all other government departments and agencies.
  • Wed 1 Apr - 1st Quarter 2009 allowances were paid to registered parties. These are the first amounts to reflect the distribution of votes in the 2008 General Election.
  • Tue 14 Apr - Registered Parties' Election Campaign Returns are due for submission (per s.429(3)). Failure to file can lead to a party's deregistration (per s.387). After the returns are reviewed by Elections Canada, the reimbursement of the parties' eligible election expenses (party rebates) will be paid (per s.435), representing 50% of paid election expenses for any party obtaining 2% or more of all valid ballots cast, or greater than 5% of valid ballots cast in the ridings it contested.
  • Fri 17 Apr - Registered Parties' 2008 Election Campaign Returns should be available online by this date.
  • Fri 1 May - 1st Quarter 2009 Financial Returns of registered parties were available online as of this date.
  • Fri 29 May - Deadline for registered EDAs to submit their 2008 Annual Financial Returns (per 403.35 (4)).
  • Tue 30 Jun - Deadline imposed on Liberal leadership candidate Michael Ignatieff to repay all outstanding leadership loans (see below).
  • Tue 30 Jun - Deadline for registered parties to submit their 2008 Annual Financial Returns (per s.424(4)).
  • Thu 2 Jul - 2008 Annual Financial Returns and Financial Statements of registered parties should be available online by this date.
  • Thu 2 Jul or Fri 3 Jul - 2nd Quarter 2009 allowances paid
  • Fri 31 Jul - 2nd Quarter Financial Returns available online
  • Fri 2 Oct - 3rd Quarter 2009 allowances paid
  • Mon 2 Nov - 3rd Quarter Financial Returns available online
  • Thu 31 Dec - Deadline imposed on 7 other Liberal leadership candidates with outstanding leadership debts (all but Dryden; see below) to repay their loans.

Other items to look out for:

  • The Chief Electoral Officer's report on the 40th Federal General Election held in October 2008. Per s.534(1) of the Elections Act, this report must be submitted to the Speaker within 90 days after the writ of Election is returned (which takes place 6 days after all results are validated and/or the last recount is complete), so look for the report sometime in February, 2009.
  • The Chief Electoral Officer's report on the Federal By-elections held in March 2008 (Official Voting Results already available here in PDF). Any by-elections in a calendar year must be reported on within the first 90 days of the following calendar year (per s.534(2) of the Elections Act), so expect this report sometime towards the end of March, 2009.
  • Deadlines for Liberal leadership candidates (Dec 2006 race) to repay any loans. Reports filed with Elections Canada on the June 3, 2008 deadline showed outstanding debt amounts as follows (source: Hill Times), and candidates were given various deadlines by the Chief Electoral Officer to repay them (source: Glen McGregor of the Ottawa Citizen, David Akin's blog):
    • $143,500 - Michael IGNATIEFF - June 30, 2009
    • $627,860 - Stéphane DION - December 31, 2009
    • $322,361 - Gerard KENNEDY - December 31, 2009
    • $269,378 - Maurizio BEVILACQUA - December 31, 2009
    • $184,460 - Martha HALL FINDLEY - December 31, 2009
    • $160,290 - Joe VOLPE - December 31, 2009
    • $150,095 - Scott BRISON - December 31, 2009
    • $104,000 - Hedy FRY - December 31, 2009
    • $395,890 - Ken DRYDEN - June 30, 2010
    • $0 - Carolyn BENNETT
    • $0 - Bob RAE
  • Although I can't find any expected publication date, we should be hearing from the 2008 Canadian Election Study sometime this year (the academic "exit poll" of the election).
  • And you can already pre-order the Carleton University J-School and PoliSci Department's regular post-election academic study of the campaign, The Canadian Federal Election of 2008, from Amazon.ca for delivery in March of 2009 [UPDATE: They've pushed it back to May, 2009 now.]

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