Here are a few news items from the by-elections that aren't being covered elsewhere, but may be of interest to readers:

• If the Bloc Québécois' Nancy Gagnon is elected in Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, QC next Monday, she will be part of the second married couple to sit in the House of Commons right now, and the third one ever. Gagnon's spouse is Bloc House Leader Pierre Paquette, M.P. for Joliette on the north shore. They would join NDP Leader Jack Layton and his partner Olivia Chow who represent neighbouring Toronto ridings, and follow in the footsteps of Conservative M.P.s Gurmant and Nina Grewal both from Surrey, BC (only Ms. Grewal is still sitting in the Commons). Notwithstanding these precedents, however, the other week Conservative candidate Bernard Généreux questioned how much time, in the face of Gagnon's situation, she might be able to devote to her own constituents.
  
  The two have been sparring over numerous issues, including the post office in La Pocatière, government support for forestry workers, EI reform, the impact of "Buy American" on contracts for Bombardier, and the involvement of former Bloc M.P. Paul Crête in obtaining federal government funding for the area. Généreux has accused Gagnon of "demagoguery"; she's asked him to apologize for denying Crête's role in obtaining some federal funds (she later produced an ad in which he had earlier congratulated Crête for his role, but I wish I could find that clipping again now ;-)); and he's said her accusation about Bombardier was "scandalous". I guess this is what we call a "hotly contested" race.
  
  
• Meantime, with the hotly contested Montréal municipal elections out of the way, the race in Hochelaga has also heated way up, with a pretty frontal assault launched by the NDP Tuesday morning on Bloc Québécois candidate Daniel Paillé's progressive credentials and the extent of his ties to the riding he's running in. The party unveiled a website highlighting aspects of Paillé's past, both in government and the private sector, and tied it to a street poster campaign, featuring a blue cheque with a Conservative logo made out to Paillé, in reference to his work during the last Parliament for former Conservative Minister Michel Fortier on the awarding of opinion research contracts in the federal government. Duceppe and Paillé had scheduled a news conference for Tuesday morning to discuss the Port of Montréal. I haven't seen any coverage of their reaction to the NDP's attacks, as most stories focused instead on Duceppe's refusal to dine with the Royals.
  
  
• Elections Canada has released Advance Voting numbers for the four ridings. I've crunched the numbers below, but early voting interest appears highest in Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, NS and lowest in Hochelaga, QC (probably not surprising, given the much greater interest in municipal politics there in the last few weeks).

Riding	2009 By Electors	2009 By Adv.	2008 GE Electors	2008 GE Adv.
CCMV	67,789	3,397 (5.0% of electorate)	68,831	3,726 (5.4%)
MIKR	77,886	3,092 (4.0%)	78,377	3,931 (5.0%)
'Chlag	78,260	1,829 (2.3%)	79,542	4,184 (5.3%)
NWC	82,226	3,075 (3.7%)	80,755	4,576 (5.7%)

Labels: Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, Hochelaga, Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, New Westminster – Coquitlam, Nov 9 2009 By-elections

There's been a fair bit of regional news coverage about the by-elections in the past week, and for folks who might not have time to scour the web for it, here's a rundown on what's been happening.

Candidate Spending Limits

First of all, Elections Canada announced the candidate spending limits for each of the 4 ridings yesterday. I've added them into the database now, but 3 of the ridings have limits on the order of $86K, while NWC with its higher population is set around $89K. Once nominations officially close, Elections Canada will announce the parties' overall spending limits for the 4 ridings, based on the number of ridings in which they have duly nominated candidates.

Party Web Watch

Next up, 2 of the 5 political parties have already devoted significant real estate on their websites to the by-elections: Friday morning, the Bloc Québécois added Daniel Paillé in rotation with Nancy Gagnon in the top right-hand corner of their home page ...





... while the NDP returned to its "Unite 4 Change" theme of the last parliamentary session ("Le Pouvoir de changer" in french) to set up a pair of by-election specific websites that went live late this Friday afternoon in both english and french, and which are being promoted from their home page as well.





As I said, to date there is no mention or link to the by-election campaigns from the home pages of the Conservative, Liberal or Green Party websites, but we'll check back every so often and report when that aspect of their campaigns gets under way. Meantime, I've updated the candidates' database entries with all their website addresses, albeit that the Green Party has yet to announce a candidate for MIKR, and no websites have been located as yet for the 2 Québec Liberal candidates (but if you have the addresses, please do get in touch so I can update the site).

Riding Newswatch

While most folks already follow the main national news outlets (and one of the best ways to do so is via National Newswatch, if you're not familiar with the site), everyone knows that all politics is local politics. So I thought I'd run down what the local coverage is saying about the by-election campaigns in each riding, starting with Nova Scotia. The others will follow in later blogposts.

Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, NS - The main news outlets are the Amherst Daily News in the north, and the Truro Daily News in the south. Anecdotally, some readers are complaining that the latter has too Tory a focus in its coverage, but as I'm not familiar with the news sources, I guess we'll just have to see over the course of the campaign how the different parties fare in terms of quantity and quality of coverage from the different outlets.

• Byelection could prove interesting - [Amherst Daily News - Editorial - Oct 9, 2009] - Like it or not, voters in the federal riding of Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley are going to the polls in 32 days and the results could prove ...
• Hot seat: Liberal candidate looking to capitalize on anti-Harper sentiment in byelection - [Amherst Daily News - Dave Mathieson - Oct 8, 2009] - How much resentment is still coarsing through the veins of the Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley electorate over the Bill Casey affair could determine ...
• Retired military officer eager to serve as Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley MP - [Amherst Daily News - <no byline> - Oct 8, 2009] - Christian Heritage Party Leader Jim Hnatiuk became the first candidate to register for the byelection call in Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley ...
• Byelection candidates hit the trail - [Truro Daily News - Jason Malloy - Oct 7, 2009] - Candidates are criss-crossing Cumberland Colchester Musquodoboit Valley looking for votes. From the New Brunswick border to the Pictou County line and ...
• Armstrong hopeful of Conservative support in riding - [Amherst Daily News - Raissa Tetanish - Oct 5, 2009] - Winning over Bill Casey’s former supporters will be key to capturing Cumberland Colchester Musquodoboit Valley in the Nov. 9 byelection, says Conservative ...
• Tories punishing riding for support of Casey, Liberal candidate says - [Amherst Daily News - <no byline> - Oct 5, 2009] - Taxpayers’ money should be spent fairly across the country regardless of who represents voters in the House of Commons, says the local Liberal candidate ...
• Blanch to present Green option - [Amherst Daily News - Darrell Cole - Oct 5, 2009] - Jason Blanch is hoping to give the voters of northern Nova Scotia another option when they go to the polls sometime later this year to elect a replacement ...
• Vote will delay news on federal funds for civic centre - [Truro Daily News - Jason Malloy - Oct 4, 2009] - Colchester County residents will have to wait at least another five weeks before hearing if the federal government will provide funds for the region’s ...
• Federal byelection set for Nov. 9 - [Truro Daily News - Jason Malloy - Oct 4, 2009] - Central and Northern Nova Scotia will have its new member of Parliament in five weeks time. Prime Minister Stephen Harper announced four byelections, ...
• Calling all voters - [Amherst Daily News - Darrell Cole - Oct 4, 2009] - Voters in Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley are going to the polls in early November to fill a vacancy created earlier this year by the resignation ...
• Federal byelection called for Nov. 9 - [Truro Daily News - <no byline> - Oct 4, 2009] - Colchester County residents will have a new federal politician by mid November. Four byelections, including Cumberland Colchester Musquodoboit Valley, ...
• By-Elections Called - [CKDH Amherst - <no byline> - Oct 4, 2009] - As expected, Prime Minister Stephen Harper has called four by-elections. One of those ridings is the Cumberland Colchester Musquidobit Valley, the seat ...
• Green Party names candidate for vacant seat - [Truro Daily News - Darrell Cole - Oct 2, 2009] - Jason Blanch is hoping to give the voters of northern Nova Scotia another option when they go to the polls sometime later this year to elect a replacement ...
• Austin acclaimed as NDP candidate for local riding - [Truro Daily News - <no byline> - Oct 2, 2009] - ...
• Old Barns man to run for NDP in byelection - [Truro Daily News - <no byline> - Sep 27, 2009] - There are two qualities Mark Austin feels a member of parliament must possess. He feels he has both. The 50-year-old resident of Old Barns will run ...
• Austin to run for NDP in federal byelection - [Truro Daily News - <no byline> - Sep 27, 2009] - Mark Austin, a 50-year-old resident of Old Barns will run for the NDP party in the Cumberland Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley byelection, which has yet ...
• Liberal candidate wants federal byelection already - [Amherst Daily News - Jason Malloy - Sep 22, 2009] - The time has come for the Harper government to call a byelection for Central and Northern Nova Scotia, says the local Liberal candidate. Jim Burrows ...
• Austin to represent NDP in federal vote - [Amherst Daily News - Darrell Cole - Sep 20, 2009] - Mark Austin will represent New Democrats in the upcoming federal byelection for Cumberland-Colchester-Mus-quodoboit Valley. The Old Barns resident has ...
• Liberal wants federal government to call byelection - [Truro Daily News - <no byline> - Sep 18, 2009] -
• Burrows will carry riding’s Liberal colours into next federal election - [Truro Daily News - Monique Chiasson - Sep 13, 2009] - Green Oaks dairy farmer Jim Burrows is the Cumberland Colchester Musquodoboit Valley Liberal candidate for the next federal election. Burrows, 51, operator ...
• Liberals vote today for local candidate in next federal election - [Truro Daily News - Brad Works - Sep 13, 2009] - Local Liberals will choose between a campaign of experience and that of determination today when they select the party’s next candidate for the next federal ...
• Burrows easily wins Cumberland Colchester Musquodoboit Valley Liberal bid for the next federal election - [Truro Daily News - <no byline> - Sep 13, 2009] - Green Oaks dairy farmer Jim Burrows will represent Cumberland Colchester Musquodoboit Valley Liberals in the next federal election. Burrows received ...
• Federal Grit candidate wonders where civic centre funding is - [Truro Daily News - Jason Malloy - Sep 10, 2009] - A local Liberal is concerned funding for Colchester County’s regional civic centre is being delayed for political reasons. Jim Burrows said it is important ...
• Liberals set to choose next candidate - [Amherst Daily News - Brad Works - Sep 10, 2009] - Local Liberals will choose between a campaign of experience and that of determination when Saturday they select the party’s next candidate for federal ...
• Liberals holding nomination meeting for federal riding - [Truro Daily News - <no byline> - Sep 8, 2009] - A New Brunswick Member of Parliament will be the guest speaker at Saturday’s Liberal nomination meeting for Cumberland Colchester Musquodoboit Valley. ...
• Federal Grits to select local candidate Sept. 12 - [Truro Daily News - <no byline> - Aug 17, 2009] - The federal candidate nomination meeting for the Cumberland Colchester Musquodoboit Valley Liberal Association will be held on Saturday, Sept. 12. Two ...
• Liberal nomination meeting next month - [Truro Daily News - <no byline> - Aug 14, 2009] - Cumberland Colchester Musquodoboit Valley Liberals will decide who will represent them in the next federal election. Official candidates are Green Oak’s ...
• Christian Heritage Party leader looking to replace Casey - [Amherst Daily News - <no byline> - Aug 12, 2009] - The leader of the Christian Heritage Party will be a candidate when voters in Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley go to the polls this fall to elect ...
• Parsons seeking Liberalnomination for next federal election - [Truro Daily News - Monique Chiasson - Jul 23, 2009] - Tracy Parsons is taking another shot at federal politics. The 45-year-old Bible Hill resident officially announced her intention to seek the Liberal ...
• Parsons preparing for another run at federal politics - [Amherst Daily News - Darrell Cole - Jul 22, 2009] - Bill Casey is not running in the next election, but Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley Liberal candidate Tracy Parsons feels he will still be a ...
• Bible Hill's Tracy Parsons seeking federal Liberal nomination - [Truro Daily News - <no byline> - Jul 22, 2009] - Tracy Parsons is taking another shot at federal politics. The 45-year-old Bible Hill resident officially announced her intention to seek the Liberal ...
• Burrows seeking federal Liberal nomination - [Amherst Daily News - Darrell Cole - Jul 19, 2009] - With an election coming in the fall, Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley Liberals are preparing for what they feel will be their best opportunity ...
• Burrows seeking Liberal nomination - [Truro Daily News - <no byline> - Jul 18, 2009] - A Beaver Brook farmer wants to represent the Liberal party of Cumberland Colchester Musquodoboit Valley in the next federal election. Jim Burrows, 51, ...
• Federal Tory candidate says don’t worry about civic centre funds - [Truro Daily News - <no byline> - Jul 10, 2009] - Colchester County residents should not be concerned about Halifax’s problem getting federal funds for a rink project, says the local Conservative candidate ...
• Armstrong gets federal Tory nod - [Truro Daily News - <no byline> - Apr 30, 2009] - Scott Armstrong will carry the Conservative banner in Cumberland Colchester Musquodoboit Valley the next time residents go to the polls for a federal ...
• The right thing to do - [Truro Daily News - Jason Malloy - Apr 29, 2009] - Cumberland Colchester Musquodoboit Valley is losing the member of Parliament they elected only six months ago. Bill Casey’s long run as the federal representative ...
• Armstrong after Tory nod - [Amherst Daily News - Jason Malloy - Apr 21, 2009] - Scott Armstrong was in elementary school when he started helping Tories get elected. Now he is hoping the party will return the favour. The Truro resident ...
• Truro educator seeking Tory nomination for next federal election - [Truro Daily News - Jason Malloy - Apr 20, 2009] - The man who wants to turn central and northern Nova Scotia Tory once again will announce today he is seeking the party’s nomination for the next federal ...

Labels: Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, Election Expenses, Nov 9 2009 By-elections, Party Web Watch, Riding News Watch

Getting back to the nomination news of the past few days, there are a few significant developments worth marking, first off in one of the vacant ridings:

• Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, NS - The NDP nominated first-time candidate Mark Austin by acclamation this past Wednesday in the seat vacated by Independent M.P. Bill Casey last spring. Austin, a farmer, small business owner, and sustainable planning coordinator, told the Amhert Daily News that he had been approached to run by two other parties before settling on the NDP. This rounds out the slate of candidates for the second prospective by-election seat, with a call due on or before Saturday, October 31. Realistically however, since the New Westminster – Coquitlam, BC by-election needs to be called by a week from Tuesday, we can expect that this one will be called at the same time, with the two vacant Québec seats possible additions to the roster as well.

Next, although l'affaire Coderre has been extensively covered by the mainstream media and bloggers alike, I thought it was worth summarizing the main implications from a nomination perspective:

• I'm given to understand that there will now be open nominations for the Liberal candidates in both Outremont, QC and Jeanne-Le Ber, QC. Nathalie Le Prohon, after having taken a few days to consider things, has decided that she will be a candidate for the nomination in the latter seat, while former Outremont Liberal M.P. Martin Cauchon will be facing a member of the riding executive, doctor and founding president of Medecins d'Ailleurs Comlan Amouzou in his old seat. No nomination date has been settled on as yet, that I've seen.
  
• The status of some of Coderre's other picks is not clear to me, for example Noushig Eloyan in Ahuntsic, QC, where it was reported this week that former M.P. Eleni Bakopanos had indeed been selling memberships in order to run for the nomination again, until Mr. Coderre informed her that he had selected another candidate for the seat.
  
• Mr. Coderre is apparently not going to be asked to leave the Liberal caucus, after reports of his contrition on Facebook and apparently non-controversial appearance on Tout le monde en parle surfaced. As an incumbent M.P., one supposes he is also entitled to be renominated without opposition in his own riding of Bourassa, QC. So, while Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff has said there will be consequences for Mr. Coderre, they seem destined to take the form of lost opportunities in Question Period, overseas trips, committee assignments, critic areas, and other perks ... and probably Friday House duty day from now till doomsday, a permanent seat on the most boring committee in Parliament, and relegation to the draftiest, smallest office on the Hill; rather than the loss of his nomination or caucus membership.
  
• None of the sitting M.P.s Coderre was reportedly pushing to retire to make way for new candidates appears to have succumbed. Indeed Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff attended a fundraiser for one of them, Laval – Les Îles, QC M.P. Raymond Folco, in Laval earlier this week. Ignatieff has also recently visited Trois-Rivières, QC in the past week, where Coderre's earlier attempts to recruit a former ADQ MNA to run federally had run into strong resistance from the local Liberal riding association.

Meanwhile, the Conservatives had a candidate resign themselves earlier in the week, which I noted in the List of Candidates who have stepped down, but had not documented in a blogpost as yet. Stephen Taylor was the first to report via Twitter that Gordon Landon, earlier acclaimed as Conservative candidate in Markham – Unionville, ON stepped down at the request of party headquarters, based on his unwillingness to comply with their guidelines for candidates speaking with local media, after an interview he gave on the allocation of infrastructure spending received widespread and unwanted attention.

A few other candidates were nominated during the week, and a whole slew of them will be nominated tomorrow, including in two contested Liberal nominations down east: South Shore – St. Margaret's, NS and Miramichi, NB. I'll be entering everything on Saturday evening, when I get back from the Beau's All-Natural Brewing Company's 1st Annual Oktoberfest in Vankleek Hill (George Wendt, better known as "Norm" from the Cheers TV show, will be the special guest ... really!).

I apologize for the light blogging this week, and the somewhat lacklustre post tonight, however it's the first one I've had to compile without my silent co-author ... our darling little kitty-cat, who used to curl up next to my laptop late at night while I worked on the database, got very sick, very suddenly, and alas had to move on to greener pastures earlier today. Never one for getting all soppy and kitschy about pets, her loss has actually hit me pretty hard.

Folks in Ottawa were also marking the passing of another comrade-in-arms and/or worthy opponent this week: long-time Liberal Whip's Assistant Richard Wackid, who received a diagnosis of ALS just last year, at far too young an age. Wackid's loss, along with that of legendary House Leader's assistant and procedural counsellor Jerry Yanover, has been a bit of a double whammy for their colleagues. We send our sympathies to his family, friends and compatriots.

Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Candidates Stepping Down, Conservatives, Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, Greens, Liberals, NDP

There's a fair bit of news to catch up on in the likely by-election ridings today, starting on the east coast:

• Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, NS - We earlier reported that there would be a contested NDP nomination here on Thursday, September 24. However events have continued to unfold, according to the Babble thread on the riding, with the result that 2008 candidate Karen Olsson has decided to withdraw and support wild blueberry farmer and Truro town sustainability coordinator, Mark Austin, who is now expected to be acclaimed at a rescheduled nomination meeting on Wednesday, September 30. Meantime, the Green Party acclaimed addictions counsellor and substitute teacher Jason Blanch as their candidate on Tuesday, September 1. Thanks to the GPC for contacting us with this information. With Austin's nomination for the NDP, the riding will have a full slate in place, at least so far as the major parties are concerned. The by-election here must be called by Tuesday, October 31 at the latest, for a date on or after Monday, December 9.
• Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, QC - New Democrats in this riding have scheduled a nomination meeting for Tuesday, October 6, a reader writes to advise. No further details are available for the moment, however. The recently nominated Conservative candidate, Bernard Généreux, notes that a by-election must be called here by Tuesday, October 13, and believes that, if elected, he will then have about six months to prove himself before the next general election which he expects to occur in the spring of 2010, reports InfoDimanche.com. The seat became vacant on the resignation of long-time Bloc Québécois M.P. Paul Crête, who tried unsuccessfully this spring to win the provincial seat opened up by the resignation of ADQ leader Mario Dumont. Crête then withdrew his name for consideration as the Bloc nominee for the by-election, and has since announced he will host a show on a local Kamouraska TV station. Meanwhile, Marcel Catellier, the retiring mayor of Cap-Saint-Ignace, is confirming rumours that he has been approached by Liberal Party officials to consider running, but tells Le Peuple Cote Sud that he hasn't made any decisions about his future as yet. No Green Party candidate has surfaced as yet in this riding. Bloc Québécois candidate Nancy Gagnon is expected to be acclaimed tomorrow (Sunday, September 27). The by-election must be called here by no later than Wednesday, November 18, for a date on or after Monday, December 29.
  
• Hochelaga, QC - While one prospective Bloc Québécois nomination candidate has stepped aside in favour of Bloc Leader Gilles Duceppe's preferred candidate, Daniel Paillé, another one is not going anywhere, reports Les Nouvelles Hochelaga-Maissonneuve. Former aide to former Bloc M.P. Réal Ménard, Benoît Demuy, had been selling memberships since June, but after meeting with Duceppe on September 4, decided to withdraw from the race. Not so for Jean Baribeau, a 25-year resident of the riding and math teacher who describes himself as a "sovereignist and confirmed social democrat" who "has politics in his blood" and thinks people in his community don't want a "parachute candidate". Baribeau had been seeking a meeting with Duceppe all summer while he was selling membership cards, he says, but never got any reply. Meanwhile the Bloc has brought in veteran organizer Patrick Marais to help Paillé with his nomination campaign, according to Le Devoir. Thus there will be at least two candidates for the Bloc nomination meeting, whenever it is held. No word on any prospective Liberal, Conservative or Green candidates as yet, but nominated NDP candidate Jean-Claude Rocheleau has evidently been following the Bloc race, and recently highlighted his own local roots to Les Nouvelles as well.

The Hochelaga by-election can be called as early as this Tuesday, September 29 while the New Westminster – Coquitlam, BC by-election must be called before Tuesday, October 13 (and the New Westminster News Leader reports that all the candidates there are "ready to go"). Thus we will be having at least two and as many as four by-elections this autumn, which could still be eclipsed by a general election, should the government fall in the meantime.

So far, the NDP has a 2 nominated candidates and 2 scheduled nomination meetings; while the Conservatives are nominated in 3/4 ridings, but have no scheduled meeting as yet in the 4th. The Bloc is set to go in one Québec riding, and has a contested but still unscheduled nomination on its hands in the other. The Liberals and Greens are both apparently ready in the 2 ridings outside Québec, and the Liberals appear to have a prospect in one of the Québec ridings. Finally, the Christian Heritage Party will be running its new leader in the Nova Scotia seat.

As soon as the by-elections are called, I'll be moving the Pundits' Guide website into by-election mode, meaning that we'll be tracking the by-elections at the top of the main page, and moving the general election nominations off to the "Search the Database" page (see "Queries for Most Recent Election") for the duration.

Labels: Bloc Québécois, Conservatives, Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, Greens, Hochelaga, Liberals, Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, NDP

While Green Party Leader Elizabeth May is bowing out of the prospective by-election races, another party leader looking to gain entry into the House of Commons has decided to throw his name into the ring for the Nova Scotia seat of Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, NS for the forthcoming race.

Christian Heritage Party Leader Jim Hnatiuk, who hails from Nova Scotia, has previously run twice in neighbouring Kings – Hants, NS and once in South Shore – St. Margaret's, NS. He took over the party's leadership from Ron Gray in November of last year, when Gray stepped down after the last election.

The party was founded in 1987 by former members of the Social Credit movement, and has contested federal elections since 1988. Its current President is former one-term Conservative M.P. Larry Spencer (Regina – Lumsden – Lake Centre, SK).

The party also recently scored a small coup, when the leader of the Canadian Action Party Andrew Moulden, only selected this past year to replace Connie Fogel, stepped down last week to join the CHP.

In a news release issued this afternoon, Hnatiuk notes that he lives in the riding, is a retired member of the Canadian Armed Forces, and now owns the province's largest hunting and fishing store in the town of Lantz. He says that his party will not abandon fiscal and social conservatives. More on the release should be available soon at the party's website. No word yet on if or when a nomination meeting will take place, but Mr. Hnatiuk's candidacy is not filed with Elections Canada as yet. Still as it seems unlikely he'll be contested for it as National Party Leader, I'll just go ahead and add his name to the list.

Thanks to a reader for passing along this release. If you have news from the left-coast to the right-coast, or from the east or west parts of the political spectrum, let the Pundits' Guide know so we can pass it along to readers who want to follow the whole race. And then follow along @punditsguide on Twitter for all the latest.

Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, Other Party Candidates

While I've been working on the new Party Finance module here at Pundits' Guide, and wow'ing at some new Google Earth magic over at Stephen Taylor's site, the nomination news has been piling up. So now's as good a time as any to get us caught up, starting with an important decision Green Party leader Elizabeth May seems to have made, in light of the first by-election window closing:

• Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, NS - May is telling the Hill Times this week (subscription only) that since no summer by-election has been called as yet for this vacant riding, she's out:
  

  Federal Green Party Leader Elizabeth May ... said she hoped the Prime Minister would announce byelections for vacant seats in the House of Commons, but since he has not done so yet she’s ruled that out as a possible avenue to get herself into the House of Commons and is now actively searching for a riding to run in for the next general election.
  “The moment has arrived where I have to say it’s too late for a byelection. I was hoping there might be a summer byelection in Nova Scotia in [former Ind. MP] Bill Casey’s riding, but even it were to be called tomorrow we’re in a position where it would morph into a September general election, just as happened last year,” Ms. May told The Hill Times in a phone interview last week from the Ontario riding of Bruce-Grey-Owen-Sound, where she was in town gauging reaction to her possible candidacy there.

  May names the ridings of Bruce – Grey – Owen Sound, ON, Guelph, ON and Saanich – Gulf Islands, BC as still being under active consideration for her to run in during a general election. More from the BlueGreenBlogger at the Not An Official Green Party Canada Site blog here. Meantime, the Conservatives have their CCMV candidate in place, the Liberals are having a contested nomination between Tracy Parsons and Jim Burrows, and the NDP is expected to announce its nomination plans either in the leadup to their Halifax convention, which is convening later this week, or shortly thereafter.
• Saint John, NB - The Globe and Mail's Jane Taber is reporting that Paul Zed is planning to return home to his former riding for a fundraiser with Michael Ignatieff next week and announce his intention to run for reelection there. Zed had narrowly defeated two other Conservative opponents in 2004 and 2006, narrowly lost to first-time Conservative M.P. Rodney Weston in 2008 by under 500 votes in the 14th closest race of the last election.
• Portneuf – Jacques-Cartier, QC - The Bloc Québécois candidate who nearly defeated two-term Independent conservative M.P. André Arthur in 2008 appears to be back for another try, according to le Québec Hebdo. Although he is not listed as renominated yet at the Elections Canada website (and the Bloc is pretty fastidious about that, so I'm guessing it's not formalized yet), Richard Côté was nevertheless part of the Bloc caucus' summer tour event in the Québec city event last week. Arthur was reelected by a margin of 1.5% over Côté, in the only riding the Conservative Party did not contest in the last election. Ironically, while the Conservatives bowed out to help protect Arthur who has usually voted with them in Parliament, Arthur's raw vote actually fell by 5,000 votes, while the Liberals, NDP and Bloc (in that order) saw an increase in their raw vote instead and the overall turnout dropped from 69% to 60%. An interesting case study for the proponents of strategic voting, to be sure!
• Saint-Maurice – Champlain , QC - This riding is on the list of new Québec Liberal nomination meetings recently announced (more on this below), and according to the Liberal Scarf blog Shawinigan city councillor (Ms.) France Beaulieu will be contesting the nomination on Wednesday August 26 when the meeting is to be held, along with 2008 candidate Ronald St-Onge Lynch who has apparently said on his Facebook page that if he doesn't win the nomination or get appointed a candidate by the leader, he will be running regardless as an independent. Two-term Bloc Québécois M.P. Jean-Yves Laforest currently represents the riding.
• Gatineau, QC - The race for the Liberal nomination is heating up in this western Québec riding, just across the bridge from Ottawa, reports le Droit. 2008 candidate and lawyer Michel Simard held a rally last week to announce his candidacy, claiming the support of the former Mayor, while former party national director Steve McKinnon issued a news release on the same day claiming the support of the majority of the riding executive. Liberals placed a close third in this riding last time, just behind their former M.P. now running for the NDP, Françoise Boivin, and two-term Bloc Québécois M.P. Richard Nadeau. The party is evidently interested in recouping the seat, with a third candidate reportedly set to enter the nomination race, now scheduled for September 3.
• Halton, ON - More reaction to Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff's appointment of businesswoman Deborah Gillis as the party's candidate here from the Oakville Beaver. In fact the third candidate Gary Zemlak had been greenlighted as well, and says that he's disappointed but understands that the party wants to hit its target number of women candidates, the Beaver reports. Originally from Cape Breton, Toronto businesswoman Gillis was appointed to take on another businesswoman from Toronto but formerly of Cape Breton, who also received her candidacy by appointment last time, first-time Conservative M.P. Lisa Raitt. Also running is businesswoman Amy Collard for the Green Party, which makes this riding the first one I've seen so far with all (business-) women candidates. Meantime, the Hill Times erroneously reported this morning (subscription only) that Ignatieff had appointed 4 women candidates, but that's a misreading of the news release. In fact, Gillis was the only appointee; two others were already acclaimed by their riding associations, while Marjorie Black is expected to be acclaimed in Newmarket – Aurora, ON on August 12.
• Oakville, ON - Just south of Halton, there are now 4 candidates in the running for the Liberal nomination in this riding, currently held by first-time Conservative M.P. Terence Young, according to the Oakville Beaver. We already reported that Connie Laurin-Bowie was running, and she is now being joined by two city councillors, Max Khan and Mary Chapin, and local businesswoman Darla Campbell. Young defeated former long-time Liberal M.P. Bonnie Brown in 2008 on his second try, having narrowly lost to her in 2006. Brown won the riding formerly held by Conservative M.P. Otto Jelinek in 1993 with fewer votes than the combined Reform Party and Progressive Conservative parties' support combined, and held the seat through four further elections. This will be the kind of seat to watch to see whether the Liberals can regain their former position in Ontario in spite of a united conservative political party. Thanks to a reader for passing along this clipping.
• Thunder Bay – Superior North, ON - I earlier erroneously reported the Liberal nomination meeting here as occurring tomorrow (August 11), but in fact it is scheduled for August 12 according to NetNewsLedger.com. As reported here several times, contesting it will be Don McArthur, Yves Fricot, and Joe Virdiramo. Michael Auld recently won a very closely contested Conservative nomination meeting on a coin toss. The riding is currently held by first-time NDP M.P. Bruce Hyer.
• Winnipeg South, MB - In a story this past weekend Winnipeg Free Press columnist (and a former Carleton University contemporary of mine) Dan Lett ran down the brewing race in this riding, and the nomination candidacy of former Manitoba Clean Environment Commission chair and current CEO of the International Centre for Infectious Diseases, Terry Duguid (which we first reported here last month). This morning, Duguid made it official, reports Mia Rabson, with a nomination meeting expected sometime in September. The riding is currently represented by two-term Conservative M.P. Rod Bruinooge, who narrowly defeated former Liberal M.P. Reg Alcock in 2006 by just 111 votes, but held the seat more decisively last time around. Duguid has run federally twice before in Kildonan – St. Paul, MB. Thanks to a reader for sending this last clipping along.
• Dauphin – Swan River – Marquette, MB - The Free Press would have also had a head start reporting this story, since one of their columnists, conservationist Robert Sopuck, will be seeking the Conservative nomination in this riding, about to be vacated by retiring Conservative M.P. Inky Mark. Sopuck may be joined in a nomination race by riding president Wayne Mathison. Mark first won the previous incarnation of this riding in a very tight four-way race, but was returned with over 60% of the vote on his last run for office. So far, the Green Party has renominated its 2006-08 candidate Kate Storey, but no other parties have selected their candidates.
• Saskatoon – Rosetown – Biggar, SK - We earlier reported that two-time NDP candidate Nettie Wiebe was set to give it one more shot in the forthcoming election, and now a reader writes to confirm that the riding association has set Wednesday, September 9 for their nomination meeting and Wiebe is the only declared candidate to this point. She came within 1% of the vote of besting first-time Conservative M.P. Kelly Block in the race to replace retiring Conservative M.P. Carol Skelton last time, in a sharply divided urban-vs-rural contest.
• Saskatoon – Humboldt, SK - In the neighbouring riding, which has gone from a tight four-way race in 2004 to a cakewalk for three-time Conservative M.P. Brad Trost, as many as three candidates are now vying for the NDP nomination to take him on in 2008 the next election (sorry, working too late there!), with a meeting pencilled in for Thursday, September 10. Apparently confirmed as running are recent U Sask grad Scott Stelmaschuk and community activist Denise Kouri, while 2008 candidate Scott Ruston apparently hasn't decided whether to enter the race as yet, but reportedly will once the meeting date is locked down. Thanks again to the reader for passing this along as well.
• Langley, BC - Another reader passed along a link to the Liberal nomination meeting notice for this riding on Tuesday, August 18, where the indispensible Langley Politics blog is confirming (as we first reported back in January in the very first Nomination News update of the current election cycle) that Rebecca Darnell will be running, and appears uncontested to date. The riding is currently held by three-term Conservative M.P. Mark Warawa, who has won it handily on each outing.
• Saanich – Gulf Islands, BC - Another Liberal nomination meeting date has now been confirmed as well for Saturday, September 12, this time the contested race we've reported on here before between Kit Spence and Renée Hetherington. The riding boasts one of the more interesting storylines of the last election, including more registered third party advertisers than any other single riding in the country, three candidates who at one time were all members of the Green Party and at one point proposed to hold a Shun-Lunn run-off race prior to the campaign, one of whom was later outed for some activities in his past and shunned by his own party, but whose resignation as a candidate occurred too late for his name to be withdrawn from the ballot, and allegedly on whose behalf some robo-calling was done late in the campaign. The spoof robo-calling incident and some questions about the third party spending reports were raised with the Commissioner of Canada Elections by the president of the Liberal riding association, and the reply he received from Elections Canada is, interestingly, now posted on the riding's website (warning, large PDF). The riding could continue to be interesting, should Green Party Leader Elizabeth May in fact decide to take the plunge here next time, as she mused to the Hill Times above.
• Nanaimo – Cowichan, BC - Thanks to a reader for passing along this brief from the Nanaimo Daily News announcing the contested Conservative nomination meeting scheduled for August 29 between Duncan chiropractor Martin Baker and North Cowichan city councillor, John Koury. More here from the Cowichan News Leader and Pictorial, and the Cowichan Valley Citizen. 2008 Conservative candidate and former M.P. Reed Elley is now the riding president, and does not appear to be interested in running again. The riding is currently represented by two-term NDP M.P. Jean Crowder, and a contested Liberal nomination is also underway but with no meeting date set as yet.

OK, that's a wrap on the riding-specific news. As mentioned above, the Liberals have announced a new series of nomination meetings in Québec, all of which have now been added to the growing list of Nomination Meetings in the left-hand column, which should bring them to 54 officially nominated candidates by the time the House resumes sitting on September 14. We should also start to be seeing a new list of Bloc Québécois nomination meetings, which were promised by Gilles Duceppe and his organizer Mario Laframboise earlier this summer, while the NDP appears to be working on its next tier target ridings, and a few first-time incumbents for their earliest meetings. The Conservative process appears to be a lot more low-key, in many cases being completed by riding association candidate search committees who acclaim a candidate after a search process concludes. I've just noticed that the Green Party has added a number of new candidates to their website list, but due to the late hour I'll have to include them in the next update.

If you have nomination news to share, why not jot me a note so I can include it in the next nomination news update. And join follow the Pundits' Guide on Twitter for the latest.

Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Bloc Québécois, Conservatives, Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, Greens, Liberals, NDP, Retiring Incumbents

You'll recall that, further to a motion adopted by the House on the Liberals' last Opposition Day motion in June, the Commons is scheduled to return on Monday, September 14, 2009.

In order to have a by-election held the previous Tuesday, September 8 (the day after Labour Day), it would have had to be called over the weekend.

So, it now seems clear that the three vacant seats won't be filled before Parliament returns, leading us to conclude that the Prime Minister may either be waiting to call them in such a way that the by-election campaigns are on-going during the next confidence vote, or that he is waiting for Hochelaga to become vacant on Wednesday September 16 and call all four at once.

Only New Westminster – Coquitlam, BC has all 4 major party candidates in place, the Liberals selecting theirs yesterday. Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, NS has its Conservative candidate, a Liberal contest under way, and presumably an NDP announcement designed to coincide with their convention down that way soon, plus the possibly that Green Party Leader Elizabeth May could yet enter the race. No-one is yet nominated in Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, QC. And only the NDP has its candidate in place in Hochelaga, QC (see forthcoming nomination news update).

Labels: Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, Hochelaga, Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, New Westminster – Coquitlam, Vacant Seats

Well, I just got a batch of other work out of the way, but boy the nomination news sure piles up in the meantime. Thank you so much to everyone who has written to pass various items along; it really does look like things are starting to heat up out there in spite of summer holidays (and the actual weather).

Let's start with candidates who were nominated in the past few days and some meetings that were recently scheduled, and then follow up with some some earlier nominations we may have missed, and some new candidate announcements.

• Calgary West, AB - Lawyer and 2008 candidate Jennifer Pollock won her party's nomination in Monday night's contest. Reader reports say the meeting was well-attended with 88 people voting, and that second-place finisher Ernie Corbett may yet surface as a Liberal candidate in a neighbouring riding. The riding is currently represented by long-time Conservative M.P. Rob Anders.
  
• Haldimand – Norfolk, ON - Former Liberal M.P. Bob Speller was renominated by acclamation as well Monday night in this southwestern Ontario riding, currently held by Conservative M.P. Diane Finley. Speller was first elected in 1988 and this will be his third contest against Finley. He sat out the 2008 election, which saw his Liberal replacement largely hold their vote share but Finley's vote drop 8 percentage points in favour of well-performing independent candidate Gary McHale who ran to raise the issue of the Caledonia land dispute between area residents and first nations. Last I read McHale was considering a second run, which could have some interesting and unpredictable effects on the riding's outcome. Speller is the 8th former Liberal M.P. to be nominated as a candidate for the current election.
  
• Compton – Stanstead, QC - As he was the only declared candidate, I'm assuming that 2008 Liberal candidate William Hogg was successfully renominated by acclamation at last night's meeting in this Eastern Townships riding in Québec, currently held by three-term Bloc Québécois M.P. France Bonsant.
  

Hogg's nomination kicked off a group of 9 further Québec Liberal nomination meetings set to unfold between now and the return of the Commons on September 14, which were announced on Tuesday as follows:

• Mon 27 Jul - Longueuil – Pierre-Boucher, QC
• Tue 28 Jul - Joliette, QC
• Wed 12 Aug - Argenteuil – Papineau – Mirabel, QC
• Wed 19 Aug - Jonquière – Alma, QC
• Thu 27 Aug - Lac-Saint-Louis, QC
• Thu 3 Sep - Gatineau, QC
• Sun 13 Sep - Pontiac, QC

I am currently trying to confirm three names passed along to me by a reader of Conservative candidates who may already have been nominated. If any other readers can help out by sending along links or clippings that would be appreciated:

• Eglinton – Lawrence, ON - This was the Conservatives' best riding in north Toronto in the last election, and 2008 candidate Joe Oliver has either been renominated already or looks to be keen to get the nomination at the very least. According to his recent tweets, he has been attending many community events, including some with Peter Kent and Jason Kenney, certainly looks to be keeping a candidate's schedule, and is saying on Twitter that Conservatives need MPs from Toronto in their three closest seats of last time. The riding is currently held by long-time Liberal M.P. Joe Volpe, however Oliver obtained 39.3% of the vote last time, coming within 4.7% of Volpe's vote share, and significantly outspending Volpe (nearly 100% of the spending limit vs. Volpe's 58%) in the process. It is unclear whether this former President of the Investment Dealers Association has been formally renominated just yet, but if any reader could clarify, it would be appreciated.
  
• Don Valley West, ON - One of the events Oliver was attending was a barbecue being organized by the 2008 Conservative in this neighbouring riding, the party's 2nd best riding in north Toronto last time out, John Carmichael. Again, a source tells me that Carmichael has been renominated, but I can't find any documentary evidence of that as yet, unless you count the barbecue with Peter Kent. This former chair of the Canadian Automobile Dealers' Association obtained 38.8% of the vote running against newly-elected Liberal by-election M.P. Rob Oliphant in 2008, and outspent him by a good margin as well (97% of the limit to Oliphant's 70%).
  
• Vancouver South, BC - A third Conservative candidate said to have been renominated from last time is Wai Young, who came within 20 votes (after a long and tortuous recount process) of defeating Liberal M.P. Ujjal Dosanjh in the 2nd closest race of the last election, having slightly outspent him as well (94% of the limit vs. 87%) Young had certainly indicated to Public Eye Online in May that she intended to run again somewhere, either federally or provincially, but again I can find no documentary evidence that she has actually been formally renominated here, so if anyone out there has further details I'd love to hear them.

In other nomination news, starting with the two vacant ridings:

• Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, NS - As expected, previous Liberal candidate Tracy Parsons has announced her intention to seek the Liberal nomination in this vacant Nova Scotia seat, which means a contest is on between Parsons and farmer Jim Burrows. This is the seat vacated by Independent M.P. Bill Casey in order to take a job representing the provincial government in Ottawa.
  
• Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, QC - Word from Radio-Canada about one of the vacant ridings, that the Mayor of La Pocatière, Bernard Généreux, is considering running for the Conservatives in any upcoming election, given that he is not planning to run for reelection municipally. Former Bloc Québécois M.P. Paul Crête was elected here in 2008, but stepped down to make an unsuccessful provincial bid in Rivière-du-Loup provincially for the Bloc's sister party, the Parti Québécois, in the spring.
  
• Pontiac, QC - As mentioned above, the contested Liberal nomination meeting has now been scheduled for Sunday, September 13, and a commenter here runs down the latest handicapping of the race from an insider's perspective here. Running are former Liberal Party national director Greg Fergus, former Liberal M.P. Robert Bertrand, and former 2008 Liberal candidate Cindy Duncan McMillan. The riding is currently held by two-term Conservative M.P. Lawrence Cannon, and is rated as meeting the criteria for a close three-way and four-way race, although Cannon also increased his margin from 5.0% to 8.5% between 2006 and 2008. I can't comment on the spending, as Ms. Duncan McMillan's return is not yet posted on the Elections Canada website.
  
• Ottawa Centre, ON - A reader writes to pass along that Janet Yale now seems fairly certain to contest the Liberal nomination here, against Scott Bradley who is all but in and has a website set up here. Yale, you'll recall, was said to be considering a run against former M.P. David Pratt in neighbouring Ottawa West – Nepean, ON but publicly removed her name from consideration. The riding is currently represented by two-term NDP M.P. Paul Dewar.
  
• Toronto Centre, ON - The NDP may have a nomination contest shaping up in this riding, as 2008 Willowdale candidate and a former director of the Canadian Actors' Equity, Susan Wallace, has announced a bid for the nomination there. My sources say that two-time former NDP candidate, and the recently-elected Grand Marshall of the Toronto Pride Parade, muslim lawyer El-Farouk Khaki, is also hoping to run again. [UPDATE: Per his comment below, Mr. Khaki is in fact not planning a run again this time.] No date for the meeting has been set as yet. This is the riding won by Liberal leadership candidate and former NDP MP and Premier, Bob Rae in the March 2008 by-elections. After seeing higher spending levels during the by-election, the general election was a more muted affair, with Rae spending just 54% of the limit but his rivals spending barely half of that. Already nominated in this riding are new Conservative candidate Kevin Moore (not Keith, thanks to a reader for the correction), and former Green Party candidate Ellen Michelson.
  
• Parry Sound – Muskoka, ON - Computer consultant Doug Banwell has announced he will be running for the Liberal nomination in this central Ontario riding, currently held by two-term Conservative M.P. Tony Clement, reports ParrySound.com. No date has been set for the nomination meeting as yet, although the riding association has asked for one to be set, and expects it for late August. After earning the ranking of the closest riding of the 2006 election when Clement won by just 28 votes, he went on to earn over 50% of the vote here last time.

OK, that's a wrap for now. If you have any nomination news to pass along for the next update, please drop me a line here. Then you can follow all the latest @punditsguide on Twitter.

Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Conservatives, Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, Liberals, Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, NDP

A likely by-election riding is now likely to see a contested Liberal nomination as well:

• Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, NS - We first reported this February that 2008 Liberal candidate (and former Progressive Canadian Party leader) Tracy Parsons was planning to run for her party again in the riding vacated by Independent Bill Casey on his retirement from federal politics earlier this spring, and it appears from her Facebook page that she is still running. Now it appears Parsons will be joined in the nomination race by dairy farmer Jim Burrows, according to the Truro Daily News. No date seems to have been set for a nomination meeting as yet, however. The Conservatives have already nominated Scott Armstrong, and the announcement of a date for the NDP nomination meeting is said to be imminent. No word yet whether Green Party Leader Elizabeth May will decide to run here, but apparently it's on her list of options. The by-election must be called by October 31 at the latest, for a date on or after Monday December 9.

Share information about nomination meetings and candidates by dropping me a line. Send a clipping if you can, or other supporting details, and of course your identity will not be associated with the information anywhere. Then follow the Pundits' Guide on Twitter for regular updates.

Labels: Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, Liberals

Not all the news from Nova Scotia tonight is provincial. A new name has appeared in the Elections Canada database, and it means that the race is on for the Commons seat recently vacated by Bill Casey:

• Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, NS - As expected, Scott Armstrong was nominated by acclamation at a meeting this past May 30 to represent the Conservative party in any forthcoming contest here. whether a by-election or general election. Meanwhile 2008 Liberal candidate Tracy Parsons (herself the former leader of the Progressive Canadian Party) still seems to be running for the Liberal nomination as reported here earlier, the NDP is lifting its nomination freeze in the riding now that the provincial election is concluded, and of course Elizabeth May has yet to make her intentions known, and may not unless or until a by-election is called.

In other nomination news:

• Haute-Gaspésie – La Mitis – Matane – Matapédia, QC - Meanwhile in a seat that isn't vacant now but will be by the next election, the Bloc Québécois has confirmed its new candidate in the seat currently held by Bloc M.P. Jean-Yves Roy, who earlier announced he won't be running again. After winning three earlier elections comfortably, Roy only narrowly defeated Liberal Nancy Charest in 2008, winning by just under 3 votes per poll. As reported here earlier, Charest also appears likely to make another run at the seat. Running for the Bloc this time will be Jean-François Fortin, the mayor of Sainte-Flavie, who won an uncontested nomination this past Sunday June 7 in Amqui, after other prospective candidates had earlier withdrawn.
• Edmonton – Strathcona, AB - Mark down next Wednesday June 16 on your calendar of upcoming nomination meetings, when three candidates will be vying for the right to represent the Conservative party in the only non-Conservative seat in Alberta. The Hill Times reported on Monday that former PMO staffperson Ryan Hastman, neighbouring riding president Cathay Wagantall and performance sports expert Linda Slade are in the running. A fourth candidate, University of Alberta student Matthew Sztym was not mentioned by the Hill Times, so I'm not clear what his status is (can any Alberta readers out there clarify for us in the comments section?). The winner will face off against first-term NDP M.P. Linda Duncan.
  
• Yukon, YT - Yukon Greens renominated John Streicker as their candidate at a nomination meeting this past Monday, June 1, a reader writes to advise. The riding is currently represented by four-term Liberal M.P. Larry Bagnall.

UPDATE: And in late-breaking news:

• Saanich – Gulf Islands, BC - I should know better than to click publish on a post without consulting Public Eye Online for the latest in BC nomination news. We already noted Sean Holman's reporting that Liberal backroomer Kit Spence would be running for the Liberal nomination in this west coast riding once Briony Penn ruled herself out of contention. Now he's reporting that another candidate, riding association director Renée Hetherington, has also taken out nomination papers. The riding is currently represented by long-time Conservative M.P. Gary Lunn.
  

I'll be updating the database with the new entries in a second to update our nomination counts, but in the meantime, if you have nomination news to share with Guide readers, please send it along.

Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Bloc Québécois, Conservatives, Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, Greens, Liberals, Retiring Incumbents, Vacant Seats

Elections Canada announced this afternoon that it had received official notification today of Paul Crête's resignation yesterday and the resulting vacancy in his Québec riding of Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, QC.

The procedure involved was quite interesting actually, because apparently Commons Speaker Peter Milliken is out of town, and obviously Crête needed to resign quickly in order to run in the provincial Rivière-du-Loup by-election that was just called, so two Members of the House of Commons had to sign the warrant instead of Milliken in order for it to be sent to the Chief Electoral Officer. I wonder who they were.

Since the warrant was received today, we can now calculate the relevant dates for all three vacant ridings as follows. I plan to shorten this riding name to MIKR in certain situations, as I have already done with CCMV for Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, NS and NWC for New Westminster – Coquitlam, BC.

	MIKR	CCMV	NWC
Date of resignation:	Thu May 21, 2009	Thu Apr 30, 2009	Mon Apr 13, 2009
Date Speaker's warrant received by CEO:	Fri May 22, 2009	Mon May 4, 2009	Thu Apr 16, 2009
Earliest date the by-election could be called (11 days later):	Tue June 2, 2009	Fri May 15, 2009	Mon Apr 27, 2009
Earliest date the by-election could be held (first Monday at least 36 days after that):	Mon Jul 13, 2009	Mon Jun 22, 2009	Mon Jun 8, 2009
Latest date the by-election could be called (180 days later):	Wed Nov 18, 2009	Sat Oct 31, 2009	Tue Oct 13, 2009
Latest date the by-election could be held (first Monday at least 36 - [no maximum] days later, or the next non-Statuatory holiday):	on or after Tue Dec 29, 2009	on or after Mon Dec 7, 2009	on or after Mon Nov 23, 2009

So looking across the three ridings, the earliest they could all be called together is Tuesday June 2 for Monday July 13, and the latest they could all be called together is Tuesday October 13 for Monday November 23, 2009.

As a commenter to my previous post pointed out, the Nova Scotia provincial election and Québec provincial by-election now underway effectively rule out any by-election calls for June dates. Also, the Québec-wide municipal elections are being held this November 1, with a 45-day campaign period.

Thus I'm sticking with my earlier guess of a Monday August 3 call for Tuesday September 8, or a Monday August 10 call for Monday September 14 (the House reconvenes on Monday September 21).

Catching up on nomination news for the ridings, there are a couple of items to report:

• New Westminster – Coquitlam, BC - The local Green Party electoral district association (EDA) has called their annual general meeting for Monday June 15 to make plans for their candidate search and a summer nomination meeting.
• New Westminster – Coquitlam, BC -Public Eye Online is also reporting a possible new entrant into the race, Coquitlam city councillor and Rivershed Society Executive Director Fin Donnelly. Curiously, though, his party affiliation is not mentioned. Donnelly did tell Public Eye Online that he is planning an announcement next week, and confirmed that he would not be running for the Liberals in the riding. His municipal election website from last November uses the colour green, but also features an endorsement from former provincial NDP cabinet minister and Coquitlam MLA John Cashore (Harvey's dad, for those following the Oliphant Commission). And a commenter on Babble believes that Donnelly will in fact be running for the NDP nomination. If so, he would be joining fellow Coquitlam city councillor Barry Lynch, and possibly New Westminster city councillor Lorrie Williams and health sector administrator Zoe Royer who ran next door federally in 2008 in the riding of Port Moody – Westwood – Port Coquitlam, BC, as previously reported here. No nomination meeting date has been set as yet.
  

If you know of nomination news in any of the by-election ridings, do get in touch and pass it along.

Labels: Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, New Westminster – Coquitlam, Vacant Seats

Hi folks, back from the Big Apple, and while I have a few items I'll be catching up on here in the next day or so, there are a few points to note quickly on the status of vacant seats.

First, Québec Premier Jean Charest called two provincial by-elections yesterday. Given that federal Bloc Québécois M.P. Paul Crête was nominated earlier this month as the Parti Québécois candidate for the Rivière-du-Loup by-election, his federal riding of Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, QC is set to become vacant very soon. Some early babble and at least one media pundit are already speculating on the possibility that Mario Dumont, having vacated his provincial seat, might be a contender for the federal Conservative nomination there. [UPDATE: I gather he was spotted at Prime Minister's Montreal fundraiser last night, for whatever that tells us.]

Second, unless you believe that Monday June 29 is a likely day for a federal by-election call (it sounds a bit late in the school year to me), we've now passed the last date on which the two outstanding federal by-elections could be called for Monday June 22 (i.e., they had to have been called by last Friday May 15 to occur on June 22) and therefore it is unlikely that those two seats will be filled before the fall, by which point Crête's vacant seat would be added to the list.

So, there will be one NDP, one Independent Conservative, and one Bloc seat up for grabs in the next round of by-elections whenever they're called. By-elections held on the Tuesday after Labour Day (September 8) would have to be called by the Civic Holiday in Ontario (Monday, August 3), or by-elections held on Monday September 14 (the last available date before the House is scheduled to return on Monday September 21) would have to be called by Monday August 10.

Stories to watch for in this round of by-elections include:

• whether former provincial ADQ leader Mario Dumont runs federally in Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, QC
• whether and where Green Party leader Elizabeth May runs, and
• whether former Conservative M.P. Paul Forseth is allowed to try for a comeback in New Westminster – Coquitlam, BC or whether his party tries to install a "star" candidate as he fears (and if so would it be former Vancouver South, BC Conservative candidate Wai Young, who may have made a very vague hint to that effect to Public Eye Online). The 2008 Conservative candidate in New Westminster – Coquitlam, BC, Yonah Martin, has since been appointed to the Senate. Young came within 20 votes of unseating Vancouver South Liberal M.P. Ujjal Dosanjh in the 2008 election.

So far, the NDP appears to have a contested nomination on their hands in New Westminster – Coquitlam, BC, the Conservatives and Liberals both have candidates actively seeking their parties' nominations in Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, NS, and as mentioned above Paul Forseth would like to return to Ottawa as well.

If you hear of nomination news in any of these prospective by-election seats, or anywhere else, please drop me a line to pass it along. Next I'll be posting a reprint of Part II of my Hill Times series on Candidate Election Spending with Bill Stanbury from last week, and then catching up on all the nomination news during my time away.

Labels: Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, New Westminster – Coquitlam, Vacant Seats

A couple of developments to report on one vacant seat, and one that's about to become vacant.

First, in the seat that is vacant, the Chief Electoral Officer announced today that he received the Speaker's warrant declaring Bill Casey's seat vacant yesterday. Thus, we can recalculate the exact dates affecting the calling of a by-election in Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, NS (and compare with those for New Westminster – Coquitlam, BC):

	CCMV	NWC
Date of resignation:	Thu Apr 30, 2009	Mon Apr 13, 2009
Date Speaker's warrant received by CEO:	Mon May 4, 2009	Thu Apr 16, 2009
Earliest date the by-election could be called (11 days later):	Fri May 15, 2009	Mon Apr 27, 2009
Earliest date the by-election could be held (first Monday at least 36 days after that):	Mon Jun 22, 2009	Mon Jun 8, 2009
Latest date the by-election could be called (180 days later):	Sat Oct 31, 2009	Tue Oct 13, 2009
Latest date the by-election could be held (first Monday at least 36 - [no maximum] days later):	on or after Mon Dec 7, 2009	on or after Mon Nov 23, 2009

Next, Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, QC Bloc Québécois M.P. Paul Crête was nominated this past Sunday as the Parti Québécois candidate for the forthcoming provincial by-election in Rivière-du-Loup, the seat recently vacated by former ADQ leader Mario Dumont. Crête hasn't resigned his Commons seat as yet, but the provincial by-election is not expected until June, so he has a bit of time yet.

Labels: Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, New Westminster – Coquitlam, Vacant Seats

The Canadian Press is reporting that Nova Scotia Independent M.P. Bill Casey resigned his seat in the House of Commons this morning, in order to take a job representing the Province of Nova Scotia in Ottawa.

Thus, should any by-elections be called, his riding of Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, NS will be able to included. We can calculate the boundaries on when this by-election can be called as follows (assuming the Chief Electoral Officer receives the Speaker's warrant on the same day the M.P. resigns, which usually doesn't happen).

Date of resignation:	Tue Apr 28, 2009
Earliest date the by-election could be called (11 days later):	Sat May 9, 2009
Earliest date the by-election could be held (first Monday at least 36 days after that):	Mon Jun 15, 2009
Latest date the by-election could be called (180 days later):	Thu Nov 5, 2009
Latest date the by-election could be held (first Monday at least 36 - [no maximum] days later):	on or after Mon Dec 14, 2009

Compare these dates with those calculated earlier for New Westminster – Coquitlam, BC, and we're either in for by-elections in two seats on Monday, June 15 or 22, or else in three seats some time in the fall (including Paul Crête's riding of Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, QC, since he recently announced his intention to step down and run in any provincial by-election in Mario Dumont's old provincial riding).

Given the expected timing of a Nova Scotia provincial election this spring, the fall may be the more likely timing, assuming the Prime Minister wishes to call more than one by-election simultaneously.

The other major question that comes to mind, is whether Green Party leader Elizabeth May will consider running in any by-election in Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, NS, a riding that some Green activists believe is a better fit for her.

UPDATE: Elizabeth May told Don Newman on tonight's CBC Politics that the riding was right next door to hers, and while if no by-election were called she would be running in Central Nova, NS, if there were she would be "very interested". The "Report on Greens" blog is running two polls: one on where Ms. May should run, and another on where she will run. So far Guelph, ON is winning the first category, and Central Nova, NS is ahead in the second.

Labels: Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, Vacant Seats