Time to pass along a few accumulated developments in party apparatus news from here and there:

• Liberal Party - As a result of their posting which ended on January 6, the Liberal Party has hired a new National Director, Ian McKay from B.C., who will be starting in early March, when he's to "continue the modernization of our Party's communication and technological infrastructure and give him the tools to drive our membership engagement process," according to party president Alf Apps' letter to the membership. A financial services consultant, McKay ran in the 2000 general election in West Vancouver – Sunshine Coast, BC. Next on their agenda is the hiring of a new President for the National Liberal Fund: in effect the party's new chief fundraiser.
  
• Conservative Party - A re-organization of the party's Quebec office was first reported by Le Devoir at the end of January, and followed up on by L. Ian MacDonald's weekend column for the Montreal Gazette. The changes appear to have been set in motion when director-general Claude Durand decided late in the year to step down and take care of her son's health concerns. Her resignation took effect at the end of January, by which point she had reportedly identified some 60 candidates in the 75 Quebec ridings (not all of whom have been nominated or announced, apparently). It was revealed this past weekend that in fact the party is now closing its Montreal office, and opening one in Québec City instead, to be run by one of the successful organizers in the recent by-election in Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, Ghislain Maltais, who is also a former provincial Liberal MNA. Maltais will be backed up by Joseph Soares, based out of party headquarters in Ottawa, who was also a part of the by-election campaign team, MacDonald reports.
  
  Meanwhile, new party president John Walsh had the recent task of taking control of the Calgary West, AB Conservative riding association (aka EDA or electoral district association), which had been planning to conduct a referendum requesting an open nomination meeting at its upcoming annual general meeting, even though incumbent M.P. Rob Anders was already renominated last May along with the rest of his caucus. Kevin Libin ran down the inside story in a blogpost for the National Post's online "Full Comment" website, which reports a lot of perspective I had not read before.
  
• Green Party - There have simply not been enough hours in the day to keep on top of every twist and turn in the on-going debate about when and how to elect, re-elect, review or reconstitute the leadership of the Green Party and repair its finances, although party activists have been pouring themselves into debating the issues at great length in the comment sections of a number of different Green blogs, including DaveBagler.ca, Not an Official Green Party Canada Site (NAOGPCS), the democraticSpace.com blog, and of course Report on Greens. I'm unaware whether there has been any final resolution on the leadership convention question. In addition, the party's Revenue Sharing Agreement, whereby the national party distributes a third of its quarterly public subsidy to the EDAs, is also being questioned in light of its current debt situation.
  
  The big news, at least to me, is that there is a third potential leadership candidate on the horizon -- a woman -- who has been meeting people at private dinners, but has not yet announced her campaign. I've made several attempts to find out who it is, but no luck as yet. Apparently a communications plan is in place regarding the timing of the announcement, and the trigger may yet not be pulled. However, she appears to be supported by the BlueGreenBlogger at NAOGPCS, who teased her candidacy at the end of a recent blogpost. The woman, whoever she is, would be joining former federal and Ontario party leader Frank de Jong, and presumably Elizabeth May herself. As the party's constitution is currently written, May's fixed four-year term ends at some point in 2010.
  
• Bloc Québécois - In a reply to a recent blogpost on the partes' quarterly contributions by Chantal Hébert at l'Actualité, the directeur-general of the Bloc Québécois confirmed that their party's approach to fundraising is to favour the constituency associations as well. Gilbert Gardner pointed to 2008 numbers showing that the Bloc raised over $800K through its constituency associations, as compared with some $700K by the party headquarters, and suggested that the 2009 reports from their EDAs which are due this May would show a similar pattern.
  
• New Democrats - The first initiative springing from the NDP's recent Federal Council meeting to plan its strategy leading up to the next election has emerged, and it's focussed on riding fundraising as well. A Facebook group has just popped up for the "Local Victories Challenge", which according to NDP blogger The Jurist at Accidental Deliberations, is designed to make a central investment into riding associations, to help them build their local fundraising infrastructure. We've reported before that party national director Brad Lavigne and leader Jack Layton have been citing statistics about the performance of their candidates who are able to spend close to the spending limit, so it appears this initiative stems from that analysis. After the party's decision in the last election to put in place the financing necessary to spend the national limit (they wound up spending around 84% of the limit in the end), this time according to the promotional material for the Local Victories Challenge they're hoping to finally raise candidate spending up from the 20-25% or so of the limit across the board where it's stayed for the past 5 elections. You'll recall that Professor Bill Stanbury and I studied candidate spending in a two-part series last spring, in which we found that this 20-25% was in fact concentrated into a number of ridings that the party had targetted, and was highly correlated with the percent of the vote NDP candidates obtained.

Tomorrow: some new functionality for the Pundits' Guide database, and the importance of examining candidates' share of the electorate in order to understand vote switching.

Labels: Bloc Québécois, Conservatives, Greens, Liberals, NDP, Party Finance

The 4th Quarter Financial Return of the Bloc Québécois has now been posted at Elections Canada and entered into the database here; and it shows a very strong performance in 2009 for them, but one that saw contributions spread out much more evenly over the year than has been the case for that party before.

The party raised $208,455.07 in the last three months of 2009 from 1,936 contributors, for an average donation size of $107.67. This yielded an annual take of some $621.5K, the Bloc's best ever non-election year since quarterly numbers were first reported in 2005, and the new party finance regime took effect.



Notably they showed a slight increase in the number and amount of small donations over Q4 in 2008, as well as another slight increase in both numbers and amounts for the large donor category.

However those figures for Q4 are low when compared to earlier non-election Q4's for the Bloc, leading to the conclusion that the party is trying to spread its fundraising more evenly over the year, probably by trying to increase its number of sustaining monthly contributors. We've already noticed this trend before.

The other parties' Q4 returns have yet to appear on the Elections Canada site, either because they haven't been submitted, haven't been received, or haven't been uploaded by EC officials yet. The deadline to submit the 4th quarter returns is the end of January.

Labels: Bloc Québécois, Party Finance

Continuing the nomination mise-à-jour into la belle province, let's start with the Bloc Québécois:

• Laurentides – Labelle, QC - Four-term Bloc M.P. Johanne Deschamps was renominated by acclamation this past September 13, although I only just discovered the event and have only now added her to the database. A recent Globe and Mail story by Daniel Leblanc after the by-elections questioned whether nominating former political aides (supposedly weak candidates) was behind the Bloc's recent loss in the MIKR by-election. However while Deschamps, who is also a former Constituency Assistant, lost on her first try for public office in 2000, she was elected in 2004 and has been re-elected twice since then. So far, she's facing a nominated Green Party opponent, first-time candidate François Beauchamp who was acclaimed on August 31, but no others.
• Charlesbourg – Haute-Saint-Charles, QC - Meanwhile in a seat lost to the Conservatives in 2006 when two-term M.P. Daniel Petit defeated three-term Bloc M.P. Richard Marceau, the BQ nominated 29-year old University of Ottawa doctoral candidate in political science and union delegate, Félix Grenier, by acclamation on October 4.
• Rivière-du-Nord, QC - And, finally, this past Saturday November 22, 15-year six-term Bloc M.P. Monique Guay was to have been renominated in her riding, located next door to Laurentides – Labelle, according to the calendar entry on the Bloc Québécois web-site.
• Joliette, QC - With his spouse's by-election campaign now out of the way and three of his opponents already in place, four-term M.P. Pierre Paquette has now scheduled his nomination meeting in this north-shore riding for Sunday, November 29. He will be rejoining 2008 Liberal, NDP and Green candidates Suzie St-Onge, Francine Raynault, and Annie Durette on the campaign trail, along with a Conservative candidate to be named later. Paquette has been elected with 52-62% of the vote since 2000, when he took over the seat from another Bloc M.P. René Laurin.
• Jonquière – Alma, QC - Another Bloc nomination meeting has been scheduled for Monday, December 6 in the riding of four-term Conservative M.P. Jean-Pierre Blackburn (only two of Blackburn's terms are presently in the database, the other two having run from 1984-1993). I currently have no information as to who is running for the Bloc, however the victor will face first-time Liberal candidate Bianka Villeneuve, Green candidate France Bergeron, and a New Democrat to be named later.

So for the Bloc Québécois, they will have 31 of their 48 incumbent MPs renominated by the end of November. The 17 not yet renominated include:

• the Dean of the Commons, Louis Plamondon, in Bas-Richelieu – Nicolet – Bécancour, who was first elected in 1984
• the oldest M.P. in the Commons, Christian Ouellet, in Brome – Missisquoi, who was born in 1934 and is thus 75 years old
  
• three-term M.P. Yvon Lévesque in Abitibi – Baie-James – Nunavik – Eeyou, who was rumoured earlier this summer to be facing a nomination challenge from someone out of the labour movement, although Lévesque wanted to run again and the nomination meeting was slated for five days after any election call
  
• class of 1993 veteran M.P. Francine Lalonde in La Pointe-de-l'Île, a great lady who has been battling cancer and I hope she wins
• three-term M.P. Nicole Demers in Laval, another Member who has also fought cancer recently; along with other long-serving MPs ...
  
• Leader Gilles Duceppe in Laurier – Sainte-Marie, who was first elected as an independent in 1990
• another class of 1993 veteran, Christiane Gagnon in Québec riding, and
  
• a class of 1998 by-election winner, Serge Cardin in Sherbrooke

The remaining nine were all elected in 2004 or later, save for Bernard Bigras in Rosemont – La Petite-Patrie, who was elected at a very young age in 1997 and shows no signs of stopping now, and indeed is already renominated.

Apart from the ridings mentioned at the top of this post, the party has also nominated early in the following non-incumbent seats (already written up here at Pundits' Guide, so I'm just doing a quick overview here):

• Haute-Gaspésie – La Mitis – Matane – Matapédia, QC - where incumbent Bloc M.P. Jean-Yves Roy, who was narrowly reelected over a strong Liberal candidate in 2008, signalled some time ago that he would not be running for re-election; along with
• Bourassa, QC - currently held by Liberal M.P. Denis Coderre
• Laval – Les Îles, QC - currently held by Liberal M.P. Raymonde Folco, who had been on Coderre's list of M.P.s he wanted to segue into early retirement
• Mégantic – L'Érable, QC - currently held by Conservative M.P. Christian Paradis, and where the Liberals have already cycled through one candidate over the asbestos issue, and
  
• Portneuf – Jacques-Cartier, QC - where leader Gilles Duceppe has made no secret of his intention to target Independent M.P. André Arthur, whom the Bloc nearly knocked off last time when the Conservatives decided not to run against him. M. Arthur has also gone a round with cancer in the past, but last I read was planning to run again.
• Brossard – La Prairie, QC - In addition, former one-term Bloc M.P. Marcel Lussier appears to be planning to run again in one of Québec's closest four-way seats from last time, according to this notice of a recent riding get-together. However, he does not appear to be renominated as yet.
  

We'll continue tomorrow with the other parties in Québec, and then keep moving west. To send along nomination news, jot us a note here.

Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Bloc Québécois

The Bloc Québécois has posted another above average quarter of fundraising results, according to their quarterly return just posted at the Elections Canada website.

The party raised $221K from 2,688 donors in Q3 of 2009, higher than any other third quarter since 2005, except for last year's ... when the election campaign was underway. This represents something like 2.5 to 14 times the amount they raised in earlier non-election year third quarters, and follows on a historically strong first half of the year.



The most notable difference in 2009 is the explosive increase in the number of donors of $200 or less (2,512), which except during elections, had previously been quite low (from 170 to 570, but usually around 250) in all but the fourth quarter of most fiscal years. I think we can conclude that the Bloc has now implemented a monthly pre-authorized contribution plan, and appears to be having a fair bit of success in rolling it out this year. The amount raised from donors of $200 and less is shown in the dark lower parts of the bars seen here, while contributions from large donors are shown in the lighter colour.



If the Bloc is able to post even a typical non-election year fourth quarter of $330K, it will match its best ever fundraising performance since the elimination of corporate and labour contributions and the introduction of the public subsidy. On the other hand, if it continues to post these kinds of above-average numbers, it will be raising centrally at the levels last seen before the subsidy was introduced. Again the dark-coloured parts of the bars below show the amount raised from individuals giving $200 or less. The rest is from individuals giving large contributions, or from corporate or labour contributions (when they were allowed pre-2004).



Insta-pundits have often been quick to look at the Bloc's level of central fundraising, compare it in a ratio to the public subsidy their vote share has entitled them to, and conclude that the Bloc is "dependent" on the allowance funds.

However, I would encourage those wanting to undertake a more serious analysis to include riding association fundraising and candidate fundraising before drawing any simplistic, and possibly erroneous, conclusions. Of course that's a lot more work, and has the danger of possibly giving you the answer you didn't want to find.

The fact is that the Bloc has reorganized the way it structures its party financing several times if you read their financial statements carefully (especially the notes to the statements). Formerly, it credited ALL fundraising and membership dues originating from a riding to the riding association, in return for a central tithe and a service fee for each membership card processed, but reported all fundraising centrally. Subsequent changes to the legislation which required riding associations to report separately from the central party but introduced public funding, saw the party eliminate the central tithe, leave the fundraising in the ridings (where it was now reported), and run the centre using the subsidy and election rebate plus some year-end central direct fundraising.

Summing up all the riding association fundraising and adding it into the mix, however, shows that the total Bloc fundraising efforts actually increased during this time, although much of it was reported in the ridings. [Note that this chart was previously prepared by me in response to a request by the ThreeHundredEight.com website, and was first published there.] Notice that the dark coloured bars here are central fundraising, while riding association fundraising is in grey and the public subsidy is in white. I did not take the time to include candidate fundraising in the mix, but a more complete analysis would do so, time permitting. Note that you can click on the chart to view its full-sized version.



So, the question I have now, is whether the increase we are starting to see in central Bloc fundraising will be mirrored in lower fundraising totals for the ridings (which only report annually and not until the following May). I guess we'll have to table that question for later, but should it turn out to be the case, we might guess that the party changed its financing structure at least in part to avoid looking "dependent" on the subsidy to those focused on the central party's performance, but it's more likely for some other internal reason.

However, if it turns out that the increased central fundraising is additive to existing riding fundraising levels, I think we can conclude that the Bloc is positioning itself to survive in case the Conservatives are able to make good on their preferred option of eliminating the subsidy altogether.

Meanwhile the other parties' third quarter returns either have not yet been submitted OR have not yet been posted to the Elections Canada website. They are not due until the end of October. I wrote a look-ahead to the 3rd quarter results a few weeks ago here, in case you missed it.

Labels: Bloc Québécois, Party Finance

[UPDATE: See below for story from La Presse Canadienne on Hochelaga Bloc nomination.]

Switching back from by-election coverage to the non-byelection nomination news, we have a last spurt of nominations to cover, after which it appears that things are slowing down for the fall. Many fewer meetings are scheduled for the coming weeks, and I'm hearing unconfirmed reports that other meetings and announcements are being delayed. Blogger tcnorris is arguing tonight that the announcement of the royal visit and the calling of the byelections signals that the Prime Minister is unlikely to try and engineer his own defeat this fall, and I think that's probably about right.

Indeed, if the election window drags out longer than that, we may start to see the opposition phenomenon .... candidates dropping out because the timing turns bad for them, and MPs with long service deciding to sit out the next campaign after all.

Personally, I'm looking forward to the break so we can return to some other analyses around here that got crowded out by the onslaught of nomination news. So, let's get down to it now, starting with candidates who have been selected recently:

• Leeds – Grenville, ON - The NDP has renominated its 2008 candidate in this riding, Brockville and District Labour Council president Steve Armstrong this past week. Meantime, the Green Party now has a three-way nomination race on the go, with a meeting set for Thursday, October 15 as we've already reported here. Armstrong and the winner of the Green contest will be joining recently nominated Liberal candidate Marjory Loveys, and three-term Conservative M.P. Gord Brown on the campaign trail.
  
• Oak Ridges – Markham, ON - NDP - Three-time NDP candidate in neighbouring Markham – Unionville, Janice Hagen, was nominated last Friday, October 2 in her new riding. She will now face first-time Conservative M.P. Paul Calandra, and former Liberal M.P. Lui Temelkovski.
  
• Miramichi, NB - As we quickly reported last weekend, Keith Vickers, and former aide to the former Liberal M.P. for this riding, Charlie Hubbard, won the 3-way contested nomination in this riding last Saturday, October 3. According to the Miramichi Leader, which ran down the details of the ballotting, Vickers won on the second ballot, with some 650 members voting in a room of 800, telling the crowd afterwards that the seat is "ours and we're going to take it back". If they do, it will be from first-time Conservative M.P. Tilly O'Neill-Gordon.
  
• Essex, ON - The NDP renominated three-time candidate Taras Natyshak this past Saturday, reported the Amherstburg Echo. Natyshak be will facing two-time Conservative M.P. Jeff Watson for the third straight contest, with a new Liberal face, Kingsville Mayor Nelson Santos, joining the race alongside first-time Green Party candidate Cora Carriveau. The riding has been held by all 3 major parties since 1984. The NDP's Steven Langdon won the former riding of Essex-Windsor in 1984, on the retirement of long-time (and colourful) former Liberal M.P. Eugene Whelan. Langdon held the seat for two terms, losing alongside many NDP incumbents in 1993 to first-time Liberal M.P.s, in this case Whelan's daughter Susan. She then held the seat for 3 terms, but lost to Watson in 2004, and after trying twice more to regain it, ruled herself out of the Liberal nomination this time. The riding has been a 3-way race in two of the last three elections, but historically has seen everything from crushing Liberal victories under Whelan Sr., to a third-place finish for his successor. And unlike many ridings in which the NDP did much worse in the elections of 1993 and 2000, that party never dropped below 14%, and have scored as high as 44%. Conservatives posted a record low of 14% in the Free Trade election of 1988, but scored as high as 40% 20 years later. The riding has a combination of agriculture and folks dependent on the auto sector, and surrounds the city of Windsor. I think it's going to make for an interesting window into how Ontario goes in the next election.
  
• Haldimand – Norfolk, ON - Also on Saturday, the NDP renominated 2008 candidate Ian Nichols by acclamation in this rural southwestern Ontario riding, currently held by three-term Conservative M.P. Diane Finley, and also being contested by former Liberal M.P. Bob Speller and first-time Green candidate Anne Faulkner. Local NDP members are noting that this marks the first time they've had the same candidate run more than once for them in this riding. Meanwhile, Speller recently picked up the endorsement of a former prime minister, as Paul Martin recently visited Brantford in support of his campaign.
  
• Davenport, ON - Calling it "just like a gig, but with a tie", musician and member of the band "The Skydiggers" Andrew Cash accepted the NDP nomination in the Toronto riding of Davenport on Monday, October 5 before a room of several hundred who were treated to live music alongside the usual speeches, including leader Jack Layton, M.P. Charlie Angus, and most of the band Blue Rodeo, according to one tweeter in attendance. Cash will be facing three-term Liberal M.P. Mario Silva, who has won the riding with 46%-52% of the vote each time. The NDP has been able to post a 30-32% vote share since the forced retirement of long-time Liberal M.P. Charles Caccia in 2004, before which they earned 14-18%. Conservative candidates typically score around 10-12% in the riding, and a strong Green candidate in 2008, bike courier activist Wayne Scott, came in just behind them. Traditionally considered the home of the Portuguese community, the MediaStyle.ca blog reports that Davenport has been changing demographically in recent years to include "a growing core 'creative class'", and indeed the riding ranked 14th in the country in the 2006 census for employment in art, culture, recreation and sport, even if that does represent just 7.15% of its population.
  
• Burlington, ON - As well on Monday night, child protection worker and NDPer David Laird was renominated his party's candidate for the 4th time in this riding just outside Hamilton. He will join two-term Conservative M.P. Mike Wallace and Liberal candidate Bruce Bowser, who ran in Wellington – Halton Hills in 2008. Here's a riding where the NDP and Green vote did not change much between 2004 and 2008, but the seat changed hands strictly on the exchange of Liberal and Conservative votes. It was close in 2004 when Wallace nearly overtook former Liberal M.P. Paddy Torsney, and again in 2006 when he finally did, but by 2008 Wallace was able retain his raw vote, while the Liberal vote apparently stayed home as turnout fell.
  
• Barrie, ON - Another return NDP candidate, Myrna Clark, was renominated by acclamation in this riding northwest of Toronto on Wednesday, October 7, according to the Barrie Examiner. Clark will rejoin three-time Conservative M.P. Patrick Brown, and three-time Green Party candidate Erich Jacoby-Hawkins, and a Liberal to be named later. Again, the NDP vote has stayed within a range of 10-12% here since 2004, with the Greens growing somewhat, but unlike Burlington, the Liberal vote here plummetted by around 10,000 votes between 2006 and 2008, with the Conservatives picking up about 4,000 of them, the Greens another 2,000 and the rest staying home as turnout fell. Thanks to a reader for supplying the clipping.
  
• Simcoe – Grey, ON - Thanks to a reader for sending along this clipping from the Wasaga Sun, reporting the nomination by acclamation of Green Party candidate Stuart Starbuck, also on Wednesday. Realtor Phil Baldwin had earlier been planning to contest the nomination, but withdrew citing work conditions. Starbuck, a former municipal councillor, will now join three-time Conservative M.P. Helena Guergis, returning Liberal candidate Andrea Matrosovs, and two-time NDP candidate Katy Austin, who was also recently acclaimed on September 28.
  
• Saskatoon – Wanuskewin, SK - Another reader wrote in to say that the expected contested NDP nomination in this riding between Barb Henderson and John Parry, also slated for Wednesday night, in fact saw Parry acclaimed with Henderson stepping down to take care of some family concerns. An accountant by training and christian by faith, Parry represented the former riding of Kenora-Rainy River from 1984-1988, subsequently ran for the party several times in Manitoba between 2000 and 2002 and has since relocated to Saskatchewan for work, unsuccessfully running for the nomination in this riding last time around, after having been nominated here for the 2005 election scare (which Belinda Stronach and Chuck Strahl Cadman [D'oh: sorry about that, Mr. Strahl] spared the country) but then stepping down for work reasons. I'm betting he is also the only University of Western Ontario MBA to have joined the Facebook group "Let George Gallaway speak". Parry will be running against long-time Conservative M.P. Maurice Vellacott, with Liberal and Green candidates yet to be chosen.
• Hochelaga, QC - There's a new blog covering by-election news (welcome, and thanks for the link yesterday), and it's reporting tonight that Gilles Duceppe's chosen candidate, former PQ Industry Minister, Daniel Paillé, did indeed win the Bloc Québécois nomination in this by-election riding Thursday, October 8. He'll be joining NDP candidate Jean-Claude Rocheleau, whose campaign office will be opened by leader Jack Layton tomorrow night, Conservative candidate Stéphanie Cloutier, whose campaign kick-off the other day was aided by Conservative Senator Claude Carignan, and recently-named Liberal candidate Robert David, who made quite a memorable entry into the campaign, according to Le Devoir (via Deux Maudits Anglais at Macleans.ca). Here's a question readers could perhaps help us out with: is this Mr. Paillé in any way related to first-term Louis-Hébert Bloc M.P. Pascal-Pierre Paillé? If you know, please drop us a line. UPDATE: La Presse Canadienne writes that Paillé "easily" won the meeting, and has Duceppe's office denying Jean Baribeau's claims that they phoned and asked him to withdraw. FURTHER UPDATE: Daniel Paillé is Pascal-Pierre Paillé's uncle, a reader writes to let us know. Cool. Thanks.
  

If it's starting to sound like a lot of NDP nomination news lately, and less from the other parties, it seems to be because the party made a big push to get key nominations completed once their convention was concluded. One of the analyses I'll be preparing (hopefully over the weekend), now that I've just about got the nominations database up-to-date, is the number of nominations by week, by party. I think that chart will show more clearly the different time-frames in which different parties have been active on that score, over what many believed would be a pre-election period.

Anyway there is other nomination news from across the country, but as it's well past my bedtime here, it will have to wait until tomorrow night. As you may have noticed, it's not just the nomination news that's starting to slow down these days ;-). Bring on the long weekend, I say.

Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Bloc Québécois, Greens, Hochelaga, Liberals, NDP, Nov 9 2009 By-elections

[Welcome National Newswatch readers!]

A candidate for the Bloc Québécois nomination is accusing leader Gilles Duceppe's office of trying to pressure him to drop out of the race, in advance of tomorrow night's contested nomination meeting to pick the party's candidate for next month's by-election in this east-end Montréal riding, reports Kathleen Levesque of Le Devoir this afternoon. The report has sparked the NDP's candidate to ask why the Bloc would "borrow the strategies of the Liberal Party" and whether this represents the "Coderrisation du Bloc québécois".

25-year Hochelaga resident and "confirmed sovereignist and social democrat", Jean Baribeau, has been running for the Bloc nomination since June. He told Le Devoir that he received a telephone call from a staff member in Duceppe's office Tuesday morning asking him to step aside, saying they wanted the Thursday meeting to be a big media event introducing Duceppe's endorsed candidate and recently-appointed economic advisor, former PQ Industry Minister Daniel Paillé.

Citing Duceppe's commitment of last month to hold an open nomination, Baribeau is refusing to stand down, and now refusing to return the calls of Duceppe himself, complaining that the Bloc has already been introducing Paillé as their candidate, and that they've sent in an experienced Bloc organizer to run his nomination campaign. Another nomination candidate, Benoît Dumuy, who was an aide to the former Bloc M.P. in the riding, Réal Ménard, and who had also been selling memberships since June, was already persuaded by Duceppe in early September to withdraw from the race, and a fourth reported candidate Thérèse Ste-Marie also appears to be out of the race now. SMALL UPDATE: Indeed, she has withdrawn and endorsed M. Paillé, according to Les Nouvelles Hochelaga Maisonneuve, which unfortunately however got the nomination date wrong at the end of its story.

Meanwhile the NDP's Jean-Claude Rocheleau, who was renominated in August, issued a news release this afternoon "extending a hand to Bloquistes who are upset" about the "less than democratic practices" of their party, and also chiding the Liberals for "le parachutage dans Hochelaga d’un économiste de Harvard".

The seat became vacant on the resignation of Ménard this past September 16, 2009 in order to run as borough mayor in Hochelaga during the Québec municipal elections that are now underway. The Prime Minister called the by-election this past Sunday for Monday, November 9. The Bloc's candidate will be the last one selected by the major parties in this riding.

We earlier reported on another case of a Bloc nomination candidate, Christian Gionet, who felt the party maneuvred him out of its nomination race in Haute-Gaspésie – La Mitis – Matane – Matapédia, QC, in favour of the leader's preferred candidate Jean-François Fortin last June.

While most media commentators have assumed the Bloc to be the likely winners in Hochelaga, it will be interesting to see whether this nomination race is little more than a distraction, such as the challenge Green Party leader Elizabeth May fought off last month, or whether (as the NDP appears to hope) it represents the opening of schism in the Bloc Québécois riding association.

One way to follow the race there that I've discovered is the Politics news page of Les Nouvelles Hochelaga Maissonneuve.

Labels: Bloc Québécois, Hochelaga, NDP, Nov 9 2009 By-elections

In other non-byelection nomination news, a number of new candidates were nominated over the last week, starting this past Wednesday. Owing to the large number of them and shortness of time, I'm doing a pretty cursury treatment for now, but will try and remember to do a more expansive write-up of these ridings next time they surface.

• Wed 30 Sep - NDP - Ottawa West – Nepean, ON - Three-time candidate Marlene Rivier, thanks to a reader for the clipping
  
• Wed 30 Sep - Lib - Edmonton – Leduc, AB - Donna Lynn Smith (h/t Liberal Scarf who got it from Facebook)
  
• Wed 30 Sep - NDP - Vancouver Island North - Former M.P. Catherine Bell acclaimed to run again in 4th contest against Conservative M.P. John Duncan; thanks to a reader for the clipping
  
• Fri 2 Oct - Lib - Dartmouth – Cole Harbour, NS - Liberal M.P. Mike Savage renominated by acclamation I'm assuming
  
• Fri 2 Oct - NDP - Oak Ridges – Markham, ON - Janice Hagan, who previously ran 3 times in Markham – Unionville
  
• Sat 3 Oct - Lib - South Shore – St. Margaret's, NS - Former Liberal M.P. Derek Wells wins contested nomination 158 to 20; will be 3 current or former MPs running in this riding now: Conservative incumbent Gerald Keddy, former NDP M.P. Gordon Earle, plus Wells
  
• Sat 3 Oct - Lib - West Nova, NS - Robert Thibault acclaimed; thanks to a contact for confirming this
  
• Sat 3 Oct - Lib - Miramichi, NB - Keith Vickers; again thank you to a contact for letting us know
  
• Sat 3 Oct - NDP - Shefford, QC - Simon Gnocchini Messier will run again
  
• Sat 3 Oct - Lib - Burlington, ON - Businessman and 2008 candidate in Wellington – Halton Hills Bruce Bowser acclaimed with about 100 in attendance, after former M.P. Paddy Torsney decided to sit it out. Thanks to a reader for keeping us in the loop.
  
• Sat 3 Oct - NDP - Burnaby – Douglas, BC - M.P. Bill Siksay renominated by acclamation, he told Twitter
  
• Sat 3 Oct - NDP - Essex, ON - Two-time candidate Taras Natyshak renominated by acclamation, he told Facebook
  
• Sat 3 Oct - NDP - Kamloops – Thompson – Cariboo, BC - Two-time candidate Michael Crawford renominated by acclamation, in the second-biggest story from out of Kamloops this past weekend
  
• Sun 4 Oct - Lib - Toronto – Danforth, ON - 2008 candidate Andrew Lang to run again; thanks to a reader for letting us know
  
• Sun 4 Oct - BQ - Charlesbourg – Haute-Saint-Charles, QC - First-time candidate Félix Grenier acclaimed this afternoon, to take on Conservative M.P. Daniel Petit
  

Also:

• Sackville – Eastern Shore, NS - Lib - I'm still trying to find out who won the Liberal nomination here the other weekend. If you know, please get in touch.
  
• Jeanne-Le Ber, QC - Lib - Nathalie Le Prohon is still going to run for the nomination here, but will perhaps be challenged by Sebastien Dhavernas, who was going to test the waters at the weekend Liberal congress in Québec city, according to La Presse.
  
• Lac-Saint-Louis, QC - Grn - Ryan Young was introduced as Green candidate by Elizabeth May in this West Island of Montréal riding late last week, reported the Gazette.
  
• Ottawa Centre, ON - Cons - Four candidates are seriously considering running for the Conservatives here, reports the Centretown News, but the riding association says they're not in a rush to pick a candidate. The Liberal Scarf has more background.
  
• Leeds – Grenville, ON - Grn - A contested nomination is in the cards, now that 2008 candidate Jeannie Warnock has stepped aside, reported the Whig-Standard. And thanks to a reader for writing in with the details: a former Liberal riding president, property manager Jeff Poole, three-time Green candidate in Ottawa-Vanier and speech and language coach Raphaël Thierrin, and retired teacher and farmer Mary Slade of Athens, will all face off on Thursday, October 15.
  
• Beaches – East York, ON - NDP - With two-time federal candidate Marilyn Churley bowing out, a new NDP nomination candidate has emerged on Facebook: lawyer Barbara Warner who volunteers with the Canadian Environmental Law Association, Legal Education Action Fund, and Ontario Environment Network is running, and says that a meeting date will be set soon in this east Toronto riding.
  
• Davenport, ON - NDP - Musician Andrew Cash is now apparently set to be acclaimed at the nomination meeting scheduled for Monday evening in this west Toronto riding.
  
• Guelph, ON - Cons - An Air Canada pilot and retired member of the air force, Marty Burke, appears to have been acclaimed the Conservative candidate in this riding, according to the Guelph Mercury. I'll be trying to find out when exactly he was nominated, and whether the nomination was contested in order to add this name into the database.
• North Vancouver, BC - Lib - An apparently contested nomination race between two candidates, who are both interested but neither green-lighted as yet, is the focus of this clipping from the North Shore News. Former Liberal M.P. Don Bell may or may not be running against former Green Party candidate James "Green Jim" Stephenson, at a nomination meeting that hasn't been scheduled yet.
  
• South Surrey – White Rock – Cloverdale, BC - CHP - A former local Conservative activist Michael Schouten is getting a Christian Heritage Party riding association organized in this riding, and hopes to be approved as its candidate here, after volunteering for Conservative M.P. Russ Hiebert in the past, reported the Peace Arch News last month. Apparently the CHP has never run a candidate in this riding before, but is now said to have identified up to 7 candidates across B.C., including Kevin Pielak in Surrey North. I'll have to do some more research into this, but if you know who they might be, please get in touch.
  

While the by-elections are on, you can always find the 41st general election Nominations Progress chart on the page for that electoral event, while the Nominations Progress table is always found on the "Search the Database" page in the section titled "Queries for Most Recent Election(s)", under "Nomination Counts".

I'm about to insert a large number of Green Party nominations, as I've had the details confirmed by GPC officials, whom I thank for their efforts. In the next day or so I'll be doing an analysis of nominations by week by party, which I had planned to do this weekend until the by-election calls occurred. Stay tuned.

If you have news to pass along, please write to use here, and then follow along on Twitter for all the latest.

Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Bloc Québécois, Conservatives, Greens, Liberals, NDP

A few items to report tonight:

• South Shore – St. Margaret's, NS - Former M.P. and three-time NDP candidate in this riding, Gordon Earle won the contested nomination here this afternoon, and will now have a fourth rematch with long-time Conservative M.P. Gerald Keddy, and a Liberal candidate to be picked at their contested nomination meeting next weekend. Thanks to a reader for writing in with this information this evening.
  
• Sackville – Eastern Shore, NS - A Liberal nomination was apparently held in this riding this afternoon, according to the Nova Scotia Liberal party website. I have been unable to confirm the result, but understand through a follower on Twitter that 2008 candidate Carolyn Scott had declared her intention to run again. The riding is currently held by five-term NDP M.P. Peter Stoffer.
  
• Manicouagan, QC - I've just noticed a contested Liberal nomination posted at the Elections Canada website, in which André Forbes placed ahead of Charles Dufour on Sunday, August 30. The riding is currently held by six-term Bloc Québécois M.P. Gérard Asselin, who was renominated on June 7, 2009.
• Etobicoke North, ON - Immigration Minister Jason Kenney attended a fundraising dinner earlier this evening for the new Conservative candidate in this riding northwest of Toronto. Priti Lamba was acclaimed here on September 9. Ms. Lamba will now face first-time Liberal M.P. Kirsty Duncan.
• UPDATE: Burnaby – New Westminster, BC - We earlier reported that former Conservative M.P. Paul Forseth has now declared his candidacy for this riding, after scheduling difficulties prevented him from running in the vacant seat of New Westminster – Coquitlam, BC. However, according to the Burnaby Politics blog, Forseth will have a competitor for the nomation, Andy Radia, a self-described first generation Canadian and political columnist. The riding is currently represented by three-term NDP M.P. Peter Julian, who was renominated by acclamation Sunday evening himself. Check out the comments on the blogpost there to see the latest on who might run here for the Liberals.
  

In addition, a number of NDP incumbents were renominated today, including leader Jack Layton; and the formalization of the Bloc Québécois' candidate in the vacant seat of Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, QC was also set to take place today. Those candidates have all been entered into the database now. Thanks to everyone for passing along the details.

Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Bloc Québécois, Conservatives, Liberals, Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, NDP

Lots of nomination news to catch up on towards the end of the week and over the weekend. Let's catch up with some meetings that have already been held, starting with the first one:

• Surrey North, BC - Several readers got in touch to let us know about this nomination meeting we had apparently missed last Sunday, where the NDP nominated Jasbir Sandhu, a restauranteur and associate of the Justice Institute in New Westminster, who is best known for his activism for reparations and an apology in Parliament regarding the Komagata Maru incident. Sandhu will now face first-time Conservative M.P. Dona Marie Cadman, who was elected on the retirement of one-term NDP M.P. Penny Priddy, who herself was elected after the unfortunate passing of former Reform-Alliance-turned-Independent M.P. and Cadman's late husband, Chuck Cadman. The riding was settled by a margin of just 3.2% last time around, with both Cadman and the NDP's Rachid Arab spending some 85% of the limit, with Liberal candidate Marc Muhammad much further back, spending 48% of the limit and obtaining just 15% of the vote. Of the 3 Surrey ridings, Surrey North has the highest proportion of immigrants and visible minorities (including 30.33% South Asian), and the lowest incomes according to nearly every income census measure. It also contains two provincial ridings (Surrey-Whalley and Surrey-Green Timbers) which went overwhelmingly NDP in the recent provincial election. Thus a contest between a Conservative incumbent and local icon on the one hand, and a strong NDP challenger on the other, should be a very interesting study throughout the campaign.
  
• Vancouver Island North, BC - Thanks to a follower on Twitter for bringing a couple of additional clippings to our attention regarding the Liberal nomination meeting held last Monday, September 21, where lawyer and former municipal councillor Mike Holland was acclaimed. Liberals are hoping to improve on their 2008 performance in this riding, where they fell to 4.2% amid a tight two-way race between former NDP M.P. Catherine Bell, and former and returning Conservative M.P. John Duncan. We earlier reported that Bell is planning to run once again for the NDP. Holland told the Comox Valley Echo that he didn't care "whether my votes come from John Duncan or Catherine Bell", he just wanted to make sure that "moderate voters who don't fit either camp" had a voice. Examining the shifts in raw vote between 2006 and 2008, however, it does seem clear that Bell held her vote for the NDP, while the Conservative's Duncan found another 3,000 votes out of the 5,000 fewer votes obtained by the Liberals, with the Greens picking up the rest. This is in marked contrast to the shifts which occurred between 2004 and 2006, where the NDP and Conservative benefitted fairly equally from the earlier 10 percentage point drop in Liberal vote. (Note that the two periods can't be directly compared using raw votes, since the riding's population increased between them). Holland is hoping to regain his party's vote share from the campaign run by Noor Ahmed in 2004, he says, but if he's successful in that endeavour, would we expect to see any improvements come from out of the Conservative or NDP vote? Again, another interesting study for the forthcoming campaign.
• Papineau, QC - The Liberals held a series of three nomination meetings for Montréal incumbent MPs this past week, the first of which saw first-time Liberal M.P. Justin Trudeau acclaimed for a second run in this north Montréal riding, this past Sunday, September 20. Trudeau, whose office was recently broken into and office computer stolen, will most probably be facing a rematch with former Bloc Québécois M.P. Vivian Barbot whom he defeated by 2.8% of the vote last time, in a riding that has switched back and forth between the Liberals and Bloc in each of the last 3 elections by very narrow margins. Barbot announced earlier this month that she intended to run again, although no nomination meeting has been scheduled as yet that I know of.
  
• Honoré-Mercier, QC - The next meeting saw three-term Liberal M.P. Pablo Rodriguez acclaimed for a fourth run in this north Montréal riding, on Tuesday, September 22. While Rodriguez faced tighter contests against the Bloc Québécois in 2004 and 2006, he was able to pull ahead quite a bit more in the last election, managing a 15.7% margin as compared with 3.4% and 5.7% on his two earlier outings.
  
• Westmount – Ville-Marie, QC - The third meeting unfolded on Thursday, September 24 in this downtown riding, where first-time Liberal M.P. Marc Garneau was renominated by acclamation. While the NDP had had high hopes for this riding -- with their star candidate former CBC Radio host Anne Lagacé Dowson and the opportunity to wage a traditional NDP by-election campaign -- in the end a general election was called, eclipsing the by-election and producing a comfortable win for Garneau, who obtained 46.5% of the vote to Lagacé Dowson's 22.9% (still her party's 3rd best performance of any riding in Québec). No word whether she plans to run again, or who any of the other candidates here might be as yet.
  
• Richmond – Arthabaska, QC - Also on Thursday, three-term Bloc Québécois M.P. André Bellevance was acclaimed for a fifth run in this riding, according to La Nouvelle/l'Union. He lost on his first outing in 2000 to former Progressive Conservative M.P. André Bachand, but won the seat in 2004 after Bachand's retirement, facing first a Liberal and later two Conservative second-place challengers in his three successful campaigns. This time he will face recently nominated Liberal Louis Bérubé. No other candidates have been named as yet.
  
• Oshawa, ON - Probably the most significant nomination for the NDP on Thursday, September 24 was the acclamation of CAW Local 222 president Chris Buckley in one of the traditional auto industry ridings in southern Ontario, which was at one time the preserve of then-NDP Leader Ed Broadbent. Buckley's name was placed into nomination by former federal and provincial candidate and CUPE Ontario president Sid Ryan, and Oshawa municipal councillor and former Broadbent aide, Nester Pidwerbecki, according to NewsDurhamRegion.com. I've run down its electoral history extensively already here, but suffice it to say that the NDP has come within 5 7 percentage points of taking the riding in each of the last three campaigns, and does not appear keen to give up trying; while the Conservatives recently brought in Senator Mike Duffy to rally the troops for three-time Conservative M.P. Colin Carrie. No Liberal candidate is on the horizon as yet, while the Greens have nominated first-time candidate Gail Bates. The nomination is significant for the NDP, of course, both because of the riding's history and because of the party's strained relationship with the CAW under its previous president, Basil J. ("Buzz") Hargrove. Moreover, even within the CAW, Local 222 has often gone its own way: it was the very last local in Canada to split with the UAW and join the CAW, and in the early 1990s sought to affiliate with the Reform Party and break with the NDP. Buckley's candidacy, along with that of Malcolm Allen in Welland, and the recent ascendancy to the presidency of the party by CAW staffer Peggy Nash, all signal a rapprochement between the CAW and the NDP, much as the CAW has moved to strengthen its relationship with other OFL member unions over the past year under the new CAW president Ken Lewenza.
  
• Windsor West, ON - A much less surprising nomination in another auto town occurred the same night, when four-term NDP M.P. Brian Masse was acclaimed for another run here. He will be facing the same Conservative opponent as last time, Lisa Lumley, who moved into second place ahead of the Liberals. Masse was re-elected with over 50% of the vote in 2008, however, having increased his vote share in each of his last three campaigns.
  
• Vancouver East, BC - Much further west, another NDP incumbent was renominated later the same evening, as we learned from five-term M.P. Libby Davies' tweet. The nomination meeting appeared to have been moved up to Thursday from its original date of Saturday, October 17, as Davies tweeted, in order to "be ready". Given that Davies is her party's House Leader, we might wonder what she knows that we don't know about how events are set to unfold in the coming weeks. To date Davies has no nominated or even identified opponents in this riding, which she has won with over 50% of the vote on each of her last three outings.
  
• St. John's East, NL - NDP M.P. Jack Harris was acclaimed the following night at the other end of the country, according to the news release on his Facebook page. No challengers have emerged from other parties as yet. Harris took nearly 75% of the vote in 2008 here.
  
• Ahuntsic, QC - One M.P. who would probably give her eye teeth for 75% of the vote is two-term Bloc Québécois member Maria Mourani, who has won her riding by 834 and 423 votes respectively in each of her last two campaigns, representing margins of victory of less than 2% of the vote each time. Mourani was renominated by acclamation on Friday night, according to the Courrier Ahuntsic, and will probably be facing newly recruited Liberal candidate Noushig Eloyan who recently resigned from the municipal Vision Montréal slate at Liberal Québec lieutenant Denis Coderre's urging to seek the nomination here, as we reported earlier.
  
• Welland, ON - NDP Leader Jack Layton joined his first-time M.P. Malcolm Allen at a series of events around the Niagara earlier Saturday (September 26), followed by his nomination meeting at which Allen was acclaimed. Allen now faces former Liberal M.P. John Maloney who was nominated to run again back on June 19, and freshly nominated Conservative candidate Leanna Villella (I apologize for mis-spelling Ms. Villella's first name as Leanne in a previous blogpost). The riding had been the 3rd closest 3-way race of the 2006 election, and moved up to the #2 spot in the same category this past election, a fact which undoubtedly explains Layton's presence in the riding and at Allen's nomination meeting.
  
• Winnipeg Centre, MB - Also on Saturday, Liberals met in this downtown Winnipeg riding to acclaim community development specialist Allan Wise as their candidate. Wise now joins already-nominated Conservative candidate Bev Pitura, Green candidate Jacqueline Romanow, and eventually five-term NDP M.P. Pat Martin, whose original nomination meeting scheduled for Friday has apparently been postponed due to events related to the provincial NDP leadership campaign in which one of his provincial MLA counterparts in the riding, Andrew Swan, is running.
  
• Richmond, BC - Probably the most significant nomination meeting for the Liberals this weekend was the well-attended and very hotly contested nomination in this riding, which pitted two former MPs and long-time rivals against each other and another former nomination contestant from a neighbouring riding. While former MPs Chan and Peschisolido had challenged one another for the Liberal nomination once before in 2004, when Chan came out on top of Peschisolido (then a sitting M.P. but one who had crossed the floor from the Canadian Alliance); this time it was Peschisolido who was successful. And in the cruelest of ironies, it was largely Chan's supporters who probably put him there, once their own candidate dropped off the ballot after placing a distant third behind both newcomer Mason Loh and Peschisolido, reported the Richmond Review late Saturday evening. Indeed one report had Loh winning the first ballot, with Peschisolido only taking the lead once Chan dropped off. Just 1,500 of the expected 4,000 eligible voters cast a ballot, the Review says. Both unsuccessful chinese candidates pledged their support to the italian victor for the coming election. The riding is currently represented by first-time Conservative M.P. Alice Wong.
  

Well, that's enough for me tonight. I'll come back and write the upcoming meetings and other nomination news for you on Sunday morning.

Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Bloc Québécois, Greens, Liberals, NDP

There's a fair bit of news to catch up on in the likely by-election ridings today, starting on the east coast:

• Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, NS - We earlier reported that there would be a contested NDP nomination here on Thursday, September 24. However events have continued to unfold, according to the Babble thread on the riding, with the result that 2008 candidate Karen Olsson has decided to withdraw and support wild blueberry farmer and Truro town sustainability coordinator, Mark Austin, who is now expected to be acclaimed at a rescheduled nomination meeting on Wednesday, September 30. Meantime, the Green Party acclaimed addictions counsellor and substitute teacher Jason Blanch as their candidate on Tuesday, September 1. Thanks to the GPC for contacting us with this information. With Austin's nomination for the NDP, the riding will have a full slate in place, at least so far as the major parties are concerned. The by-election here must be called by Tuesday, October 31 at the latest, for a date on or after Monday, December 9.
• Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, QC - New Democrats in this riding have scheduled a nomination meeting for Tuesday, October 6, a reader writes to advise. No further details are available for the moment, however. The recently nominated Conservative candidate, Bernard Généreux, notes that a by-election must be called here by Tuesday, October 13, and believes that, if elected, he will then have about six months to prove himself before the next general election which he expects to occur in the spring of 2010, reports InfoDimanche.com. The seat became vacant on the resignation of long-time Bloc Québécois M.P. Paul Crête, who tried unsuccessfully this spring to win the provincial seat opened up by the resignation of ADQ leader Mario Dumont. Crête then withdrew his name for consideration as the Bloc nominee for the by-election, and has since announced he will host a show on a local Kamouraska TV station. Meanwhile, Marcel Catellier, the retiring mayor of Cap-Saint-Ignace, is confirming rumours that he has been approached by Liberal Party officials to consider running, but tells Le Peuple Cote Sud that he hasn't made any decisions about his future as yet. No Green Party candidate has surfaced as yet in this riding. Bloc Québécois candidate Nancy Gagnon is expected to be acclaimed tomorrow (Sunday, September 27). The by-election must be called here by no later than Wednesday, November 18, for a date on or after Monday, December 29.
  
• Hochelaga, QC - While one prospective Bloc Québécois nomination candidate has stepped aside in favour of Bloc Leader Gilles Duceppe's preferred candidate, Daniel Paillé, another one is not going anywhere, reports Les Nouvelles Hochelaga-Maissonneuve. Former aide to former Bloc M.P. Réal Ménard, Benoît Demuy, had been selling memberships since June, but after meeting with Duceppe on September 4, decided to withdraw from the race. Not so for Jean Baribeau, a 25-year resident of the riding and math teacher who describes himself as a "sovereignist and confirmed social democrat" who "has politics in his blood" and thinks people in his community don't want a "parachute candidate". Baribeau had been seeking a meeting with Duceppe all summer while he was selling membership cards, he says, but never got any reply. Meanwhile the Bloc has brought in veteran organizer Patrick Marais to help Paillé with his nomination campaign, according to Le Devoir. Thus there will be at least two candidates for the Bloc nomination meeting, whenever it is held. No word on any prospective Liberal, Conservative or Green candidates as yet, but nominated NDP candidate Jean-Claude Rocheleau has evidently been following the Bloc race, and recently highlighted his own local roots to Les Nouvelles as well.

The Hochelaga by-election can be called as early as this Tuesday, September 29 while the New Westminster – Coquitlam, BC by-election must be called before Tuesday, October 13 (and the New Westminster News Leader reports that all the candidates there are "ready to go"). Thus we will be having at least two and as many as four by-elections this autumn, which could still be eclipsed by a general election, should the government fall in the meantime.

So far, the NDP has a 2 nominated candidates and 2 scheduled nomination meetings; while the Conservatives are nominated in 3/4 ridings, but have no scheduled meeting as yet in the 4th. The Bloc is set to go in one Québec riding, and has a contested but still unscheduled nomination on its hands in the other. The Liberals and Greens are both apparently ready in the 2 ridings outside Québec, and the Liberals appear to have a prospect in one of the Québec ridings. Finally, the Christian Heritage Party will be running its new leader in the Nova Scotia seat.

As soon as the by-elections are called, I'll be moving the Pundits' Guide website into by-election mode, meaning that we'll be tracking the by-elections at the top of the main page, and moving the general election nominations off to the "Search the Database" page (see "Queries for Most Recent Election") for the duration.

Labels: Bloc Québécois, Conservatives, Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, Greens, Hochelaga, Liberals, Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, NDP

OK, grab your double-double and low-fat blueberry muffin because the cross-country roundup of nomination news is getting on the road, starting tonight in one of the vacant seats:

• Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, QC - Local Conservatives met last night to formally nominate their candidate for the forthcoming (by-)election in this riding, the retiring mayor of La Pocatière, Bernard Généreux, with Québec lieutenant Christian Paradis in attendance. Meanwhile the Bloc Québécois has scheduled its nomination meeting for this coming Sunday, and will welcome Bloc Leader Gilles Duceppe as they formalize the nomination of their only declared candidate, Nancy Gagnon, a former aide to former Bloc M.P. Paul Crête whose resignation opened up the seat. The by-election here must be called by Wednesday, November 18, although that would put E-day on something like Monday, December 29 for a short writ, so I'm guessing the Prime Minister either calls it earlier with New Westminster – Coquitlam, BC and Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, NS and possibly Hochelaga, QC, or else he waits and calls this one and Hochelaga together in the new year.

In other news, some other candidates have been selected in the past few days, and some meetings have been set. Let's drive from east to west:

• Halifax, NS - A good turnout was reported Tuesday night (September 22) for the contested Liberal nomination in this riding, which saw medical doctor and adolescent mental health researcher Stan Kutcher defeat Chris Crowell by a vote of 351 to 204. Kutcher will now face first-time NDP M.P. Megan Leslie. No Conservative or Green candidates have been identified as yet. Thanks to several folks who reported on the meeting via Twitter!
  
• Fundy Royal, NB - Area Liberals have called a nomination meeting for Wednesday, September 30, and to date the only declared candidate is Habitat for Humanity director of operations and long-time Liberal volunteer Dave Delaney, reports the Kings County Record. The riding is currently held by three-term Conservative M.P. Rob Moore, who defeated PC-turned-Liberal M.P. John Herron in 2004, and obtained over 50% of the vote last time around. This riding was also the only riding in New Brunswick where the Liberals fell to third place behind the NDP's Rob Moir on his second time running. It's not known if Moir, an economic professor at UNB, is planning to run again.
  
• Miramichi, NB - We mentioned earlier that the contested Liberal nomination race here was down to three candidates, and a reader has been kind enough to get in touch and advise us of the nomination date, which has now been set for October 3. Keith Vickers, a former aide to former Liberal M.P. Charlie Hubbard, Véronique Arsenault, who recently stepped down as Chamber of Commerce executive director, and riding president Rob Hutchison will vy for the opportunity to face first-time Conservative M.P. Tilly Gordon-O'Neill in the next election. No news on any other party candidates here yet.
• Brome – Missisquoi, QC - The 2008 NDP candidate, Christelle Bogosta, in this riding was renominated here by acclamation Tuesday night, where she'll be running against two-term Bloc Québécois M.P. Christian Ouellet, and former Liberal M.P. Denis Paradis. Thanks to a reading for passing along the details of this meeting.
  
• Compton – Stanstead, QC - As reported here earlier, three-term Bloc Québécois M.P. France Bonsant was to be renominated here by acclamation tonight. Her Liberal opponent, 2008 candidate William Hogg, was nominated in late July, and the seat was on Denis Coderre's list of target seats as reported by Le Devoir earlier this summer. The Liberals last won this seat with former PC-turned-Liberal M.P. David Price running for them in 2000. Bonsant switched places with him in vote share in 2004, and has continued to win against a divided opposition vote.

It's also worth making another pitstop here for a second to highlight the visit made Tuesday to Québec city by Bloc Leader Gilles Duceppe to introduce his candidates for the Capital Region, some of whom have been nominated while some are still only declared. It's clear that the Bloc is focussing a great deal of effort to retake seats from the Conservatives in the provincial capital. Here's who was in attendance at the event:

• Québec, QC - Six-term Bloc M.P. Christiane Gagnon (not yet renominated)
• Beauport – Limoilou, QC - Michel Létourneau (not yet nominated, and a new name for us), who will be running against two-term Conservative M.P. Sylvie Boucher
• Charlesbourg – Haute-Saint-Charles, QC - Félix Grenier (not yet nominated, and another new name for us), who will be running against two-term Conservative M.P. Daniel Petit
  
• Louis-Saint-Laurent, QC - France Gagné (nominated June 14, 2009), who will be running against two-term Conservative M.P. Josée Verner, and recently nominated Liberal candidate Johanne Brisson. Some Liberals believe this seat will be their best hope in the city.
  
• Louis-Hébert, QC - First-time Bloc M.P. Pascal-Pierre Paillé (nominated May 20, 2009)
• Portneuf – Jacques-Cartier, QC - Richard Côté (nominated September 8, 2009), who will be running against two-term Independent M.P. André Arthur in this seat that surrounds the city of Québec. Duceppe has been scathing in recent weeks about Mr. Arthur's attendance record and effectiveness, and has made no bones about the fact that he wants to win the seat back for the Bloc.
• Montmorency – Charlevoix – Haute-Côte-Nord, QC - Six-term Bloc M.P. Michel Guimond (not yet renominated), from further north-east of the city
  

Continuing across the country, our next stop is in eastern Ontario:

• Kingston and the Islands, ON - Daniel Beals finished ahead of Pauline Kuhlmann in the contested NDP nomination race in this riding this past Tuesday, September 22, which now has all candidates in place save for the incumbent, Commons Speaker and Liberal M.P. Peter Milliken. Milliken is subject to continued speculation that he will not run for his seat again, but last I read had maintained his intention to do so. Thanks to several readers for getting in touch about this riding in the past few days.
  
• Trinity – Spadina, ON - Two-term NDP M.P. Olivia Chow was to be renominated by acclamation in this seat on the same evening. She now faces a rematch with recently renominated Liberal candidate Christine Innes, and renominated 2008 Green candidate Stephen La Frenie. CTV's Graham Richardson told Power Play the other day that he was watching this seat as a barometer of the overall NDP-Liberal contest, citing Ms. Chow's 2008 margin of 3,484 votes. If you consult the riding profile page for this riding, you'll see that this represents a 5.8% margin, or 11.2 votes per poll. No Conservative name has surfaced in this riding as yet.
  
• Beaches – East York, ON - A good catch by the Liberal Scarf blog, who found this clipping from the Toronto Star in which two-time federal NDP candidate and former provincial cabinet minister Marilyn Churley has ruled herself out of running federally next time and is turning her eyes municipally. The seat has been another perennial target of the NDP, which held its predecessor for many years under Neil Young and Andrew Brewin before him, but has been unable to unseat six-term Liberal M.P. Maria Minna, even though it holds the seat provincially.
  
• Oakville, ON - Big crowds were also on hand Tuesday, according to a Twitter correspondent, for the 2-way 4-way contested nomination in this riding, eventually won by municipal councillor Max Khan. Khan will now face first-term Conservative M.P. Terence Young, who won the seat on his second match against former Liberal M.P. Bonnie Brown.
  
• St. Catharines, ON - Andrew Gill was to be acclaimed as the Liberal candidate here the same evening, and will now face two-term Conservative M.P. Rick Dykstra, and Green Party candidate Jennifer Mooradian, who was acclaimed on June 25 (thanks to a reader for getting in touch to pass along the Green nomination info).
  
• Niagara Falls, ON - Our Twitter correspondent was on duty again Wednesday night, at this uncontested Liberal nomination where lawyer Bev Hodgson was formalized as her party's candidate, after the withdrawal of Joyce Morocco to attend to family health concerns. Hodgson will be taking on long-time Conservative M.P. Rob Nicholson.
  
• Oxford, ON - In the first of two potential party-switchers we're covering tonight, the Woodstock Sentinel-Review is reporting that the former 2004 and 2006 Marijuana Party candidate in this riding, small-business owner Jim Bender, is putting the finishing touches on his nomination papers to run under a red banner this time after some area Liberals had mused earlier in the summer about trying to recruit him. Bender cites his potential appeal to current non-voters as a competitive advantage, along with his previous experience as a candidate, believing that "the party will allow some flexibility to express his opinions and does not treat candidates in a heavy handed manner". Should Bender be successful, it would be third match against three-term Conservative M.P. Dave MacKenzie.
• Thunder Bay – Rainy River, ON - First-time NDP M.P. John Rafferty was to be acclaimed after a 3-day 3-city nomination process in this northwestern Ontario riding tonight, and will now face the Liberal M.P. he defeated, former Liberal M.P. Ken Boshcoff, in their 4th rematch since 2004.
• Westlock – St. Paul, AB - Also tonight, Liberals were meeting to formalize the nomination by acclamation of new candidate Rob Fox. Thanks to a reader for passing this information along. This northern Alberta riding is currently represented by two-term Conservative M.P. Brian Storseth, who obtained 72.7% of the vote last time around as turnout dropped to 51.1%.
  
• Richmond, BC - The Richmond Review is reporting that some 3,800 Liberals are eligible to vote at this 3-way battle for the party nomination in this west coast riding. Running are two former Liberal M.P.s for the riding, Raymond Chan and Joe Peschisolido, and a former nomination candidate in a neighbouring riding Mason Loh. The riding was won as part of the Conservatives' successful strategy to target new Canadians in the last election, resoundingly electing first-time Conservative M.P. Alice Wong with nearly 50% of the vote.
  
• North Vancouver, BC - Thanks to a reader, we learn from the North Vancouver Politics blog of another potential party switcher: none other than "Green Jim" Stephenson, who you'll recall stepped down as candidate and switched into this riding, in order to allow former Liberal M.P. Blair Wilson to cross the floor and run as a Green in the last election in neighbouring West Vancouver – Sunshine Coast – Sea to Sky Country, where Stephenson had originally been nominated. He now says he's concluded that "Green popularity between elections is high but, strategic voting during elections is what stops them from getting any seats", that "running again as a Green in North Van. would all but, guarantee Andrew Saxton's re-election", and that "the best bet is to try to be elected as a Green Liberal because the environmental issues we face are too dire to wait for voter reform to elect Green Members to Parliament". He said he nearly wasn't going to run at all, believing that running against former Liberal M.P. Don Bell (who is yes apparently going to go for it, as has been speculated here earlier) would be a "long shot". There's a good cross-section of comments on the blogpost that will give you a feeling for the local colour. As mentioned above, the riding was won by first-time Conservative M.P. Andrew Saxton in a surprise upset over former Liberal M.P. and one-time Mayor of North Vancouver Don Bell. Since his defeat, Bell tried unsuccessfully to win a BC Liberal nomination for the recent provincial election.

Speaking of former Liberal M.P.s, I fished out and updated my list of who's in and who's out, given the trend we were observing. As things stand at present, there are 21 former Liberal M.P.s either nominated, running for the nomination, or said to be interested in running for the forthcoming election.

Nominated (12) are: Alghabra, Boshcoff, Maloney, Paradis, Pratt, Redman, Simard, Speller, St.-Amand, Telegdi, Temelkovski, Valley.

Running (6) are: Bell, Chan, Peschisolido, Thibault, Turner, Wells.

Said to be interested (3) are: Bakopanos, Torsney, Zed.

Not running (14) are: Allard, Bertrand, Cauchon, Copps, Godbout, Kadis, Keeper, Keyes, Lastewka, Macklin, McArthur, Scherrer, St.-Denis, Stronach, Whelan.

To get on the last list, the former MPs had to have been reported to be approached to run and declined, or have a news story in which they ruled themselves out from running again, thus allowing the riding to launch a new candidate search. Some others on the list were reported to have been sidelined (wanting to run again, but either told not to or observed that they could not win), or else they lost a nomination meeting.

OK, that was a long drive, but if you have news we can stop in to report on our next cross-country nominations road-trip, why not drop us a line. And follow along @punditsguide on Twitter, where you too could be a Twitter correspondent from a nomination meeting in your area.

Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Bloc Québécois, Liberals, Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, NDP

This biggest nomination news this morning emanates from Québec:

• Outremont, QC - Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff yesterday backed up his Québec lieutenant Denis Coderre, saying that Coderre's decision to appoint a women candidate was good for party renewal and that former Outremont Liberal M.P. Martin Cauchon had a "promising future" in the Liberal Party. Apparently Ignatieff had called Cauchon Sunday night to deliver the news personally. One assumes this also puts an end to the earlier rumour that former La Presse columnist and Le Soleil editor Alain Dubuc was being tapped for the candidacy, and it also appears to put an end for now to the ambitions of nomination candidate Comlan Amouzou.
  

Meantime Le Devoir and the CBC were reporting last night that Coderre has been pushing 4 other Liberal MPs to step down in favour of new star female candidatesm, and we are hearing this morning that this is true, but that nothing's settled yet. They are:

• Saint-Laurent – Cartierville, QC - Former Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion's name is reportedly on the list, although last we had reported here, Dion had turned down an academic appointment and wanted to run again in this West Island of Montréal seat.
  
• Laval – Les Îles, QC - Also said to be targetted is five-term Liberal M.P. Raymonde Folco, whose riding association was carrying a negative $43K net worth at the end of 2007 and has yet to file a year-end return for 2008 this year, allowing her campaign to be outspent 98% of the limit to 52% by her former aide-turned-Conservative candidate Agop T. Evereklian in the last campaign. However, Folco is said to have told Ignatieff she would like to stay on, and he has apparently agreed.
• Pierrefonds – Dollard, QC - Bernard Patry is the other West Island Liberal M.P. named, and has served 6 terms since he defeated former Conservative M.P. Gerry Weiner in 1993 with 65% of the vote, increasing to 72.9% in 2000, but declining to 46.9% by 2008.
• LaSalle – Émard, QC - The other name on the list is NOT a "long-time" M.P., but rather Lise Zarac, a former municipal councillor who was only just elected last fall to replace former Liberal Leader and Prime Minister Paul Martin, after his retirement. She held the riding with a 40.6% vote share in 2008, down from Martin's high of 65.8% in 2000, but consistent with the 45.5% he obtained in 1988 when he defeated former Conservative M.P. Claude Lanthier to enter the Commons.

In other nomination news:

• Sackville – Eastern Shore, NS - Five-term NDP M.P. Peter Stoffer was re-nominated by acclamation this past Saturday, a commenter writes to tell us. None of his opponents appear to have been selected as yet.
  
• Mégantic – L'Érable, QC - 2008 candidate and notary Pierre Turcotte defeated former riding president Kaven Mathieu for the Bloc Québécois nomination in this eastern townships riding last Tuesday, September 15, we learn from the Courrier Frontenac. The riding is currently represented by two-term Conservative M.P. Christian Paradis, and recently lost its Liberal candidate, Marc Giroux, over a policy disagreement regarding asbestos.
• Drummond, QC - Also recently renominated is first-time Bloc Québécois M.P. Roger Pomerleau who kept the seat in his party's column on the retirement of since-deceased former Bloc M.P. Pauline Picard. He was acclaimed on Sunday morning, September 20, according to l'Express de Drummondville. None of his opponents appear to have been selected yet either.
• Joliette, QC - 2008 NDP candidate Francine Raynault was renominated by acclamation in this north shore riding on Thursday, September 17, a reader writes to advise. She joins 2008 Liberal candidate Suzie St-Onge, and both will face four-term Bloc Québécois House Leader Pierre Paquette.
• Montcalm, QC - In a neighbouring riding last night, the NDP nominated first-time candidate Manon Perreault, a municipal councillor and activist for the disabled. The seat is currently held by four-term Bloc Québécois M.P. Roger Gaudet.
  
• Repentigny, QC - And in another neighbouring riding last night, four-time candidate and FTQ union rep Réjean Bellemare received his party's nod once again for the forthcoming campaign. The riding is currently held by Nicolas Dufour, who kept the seat for the Bloc Québécois in 2008 on the retirement of former M.P. Father Raymond Gravel. Dufour, who at age 22 is currently the youngest Member in the House of Commons, was the second Bloc M.P. to be renominated, back on April 19, with leader Gilles Duceppe in attendance.
  
• Kingston and the Islands, ON - We earlier wrote about one of the candidates in the contested NDP nomination in this eastern Ontario riding, Daniel Beals. He is being joined in the race by a home healthcare professional, Pauline Kuhlmann, a reader passed along, who ran provincially for her party in Leeds-Grenville in 2007. The two will square off at a meeting tonight, and the victor will face Green Party candidate Eric Benoit Walton, Conservative candidate Brian Abrams, and Commons Speaker and long-time Liberal M.P. Peter Milliken.
  
• Peterborough, ON - The reader also writes to say that prospective NDP candidate in this riding, Dave Nickle, is a secondary school teacher and former District 14 OSSTF President in town, and has run three times provincially. He is expected to be acclaimed at a nomination meeting convened for next Monday, September 28, and will then face two-term Conservative M.P. Dean Del Mastro and 2008 Liberal candidate Betsy McGregor.
  
• Essex, ON - Several readers got in touch to let us know about the nomination meeting now scheduled here for Saturday, October 3. Two-time candidate Taras Natyshak does not appear to have stopped campaigning since the last election, and is expected to be acclaimed. He will then face off once again against two-term Conservative M.P. Jeff Watson, and first-time Liberal candidate Nelson Santos, the mayor of Amherstburg Kingsville [sorry about that Mayor Santos!], who was nominated in mid-August. The rural riding which surrounds Windsor has been held by all 3 major parties in the last 20 years, from the NDP's Steven Langdon (1984-1993) to the Liberal's Susan Whelan (1993-2004), who lost to Watson and then tried twice to return to Ottawa, and it has been a 3-way race or close to it in each of the last 3 campaigns. Natyshak obtained 26.6% of the vote in 2008, but was outgunned by both Watson and Whelan in campaign spending the last two elections, managing just 38% and 52% of the limit in 2006 and 2008 respectively, compared with 97% and 96% each for the other two parties.
  
• Windsor West, ON - Another reader wrote to remind us that four-time NDP M.P. Brian Masse is expected to be acclaimed at a nomination meeting this coming Friday. Masse's Conservative opponent Lisa Lumley has been in place since she was acclaimed on June 7, and area Liberals have yet to pick a candidate, although Edy Haddad is very interested in running, as we reported earlier. The Conservatives moved into second place in both the urban Windsor ridings in 2008.
  
• Sarnia – Lambton, ON - The hotly contested Liberal nomination race in this riding has been going for most of the summer, and finally concluded with 2008 candidate Tim Fugard coming out ahead of Anne Marie Gillis last night, reported @RadioSarniaNews on Twitter this morning. Fugard, who placed third last time behind two-term Conservative M.P. Patricia Davidson and the NDP's Andy Bruziewicz, will face Davidson once again, along with recently-nominated Crissy Sinopole for the NDP.
  
• Elmwood – Transcona, MB - Thanks to a reader for passing along this Facebook group for marketing and sponsorship consultant Ilona Niemczyk, who is going after the Liberal nomination in this east-end Winnipeg riding, currently held by first-time NDP M.P. Jim Maloway. No nomination meeting date appears to have been set as yet. Maloway was renominated at the end of June, the first candidate to be officially selected for the NDP.
  
• Palliser, SK - Another reader wrote to remind us that Noah Evanchuk was acclaimed as the NDP candidate here this past Saturday, September 19. A lawyer, Evanchuk was one of the key organizers of Ryan Meili's spirited leadership challenge in the recent provincial leadership contest against Dwayne Lingenfelter (who just won his own seat in last night's by-election in Regina Douglas Park). Evanchuk will now face off against first-time Conservative M.P. and former mayor of Moose Jaw, Ray Boughen, and a Liberal to be named later. As an interesting trivia item, this riding's profile page has been the top hit here for click-throughs from the associated Election Prediction Page for the same riding over the past month.
• Vancouver Island North, BC - Area Liberals nominated lawyer Michael Holland last night, who will now face five-term Conservative M.P. John Duncan, and apparently also former one-term NDP M.P. Catherine Bell who recently stepped down from her position as riding president in order to file her nomination papers for a meeting expected sometime in October, according to the Comox Valley Record. Thanks to a reader for getting in touch with this information so quickly.
  

As you can see, reader reports and news from Google Alerts are now becoming the mainstay of the nomination news updates here. If you want to see your party's candidates in the news more often, why not get in touch. And then follow all the fun @punditsguide on Twitter.

I did want to take a moment to recognize some analysis of the situation with Liberal women candidates, and whether their recruitment was more likely to occur in "winnable" than "non-winnable" seats, which was conducted by the Liberal Scarf is this blogpost. He concludes after looking at roughly 73 ridings in each category that the proportions were roughly even across the two groups. Check it out.

Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Bloc Québécois, Liberals, NDP