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41st General Election Nominations Progress Chart

Nominations Progress - 41st General Election

Seats with First-Time Incumbents
 YTNTNUBCABSKMBONQCNBNSPENLTotPctWomPct
Seats1113628141410675101147308  
Lib11 1584790468103619965%6532.7%
NDP 1 191086711026 213544%4734.8%
Grn1 116187127950273 19664%5829.6%
BQ        40    4013%1025.0%
Cons  1302813127721543 19463%3719.1%
Ind     1 11    31%133.3%
Oth    1  1     21%150.0%

BLOG -- Guide to the Pundits' Guide

Friday, March 13, 2009

2004 and 2006 Candidate Spending Updated

As indicated earlier this morning, I've been updating the candidate election finance and expense data for 2004 and 2006. Here is a count of the remaining returns still either missing, not yet reviewed, or possibly Nil returns but I can't tell because there's nothing in them and will have to wait until Elections Canada posts the complete set.

[UPDATE: I've just reviewed and updated the 2006 By-election returns now, and so the counts below have been adjusted accordingly.]

Please note that these updates will affect the accuracy of means, standard deviations and correlations earlier published here. I'll be updating that post soon. Also a reminder that any financial data appearing in italics (for example, the data shown here for Bloc Québécois M.P. Diane Bourgeois in Terrebonne – Blainville, QC) is still in the "as submitted" stage, meaning that the return has not yet been reviewed by Elections Canada (or that I haven't entered the reviewed data yet).

As a helpful bonus, I also finally got around to entering short abbreviations for the political party of all the "other" candidates in the riding profile pages and candidate index pages. Thus, Ron Gray now shows up as a Christian Heritage Party candidate (CHP), Marc-Boris St-Maurice shows up as a Marijuana Party (Marj) candidate, Miguel Figueroa shows up as a Communist Party of Canada candidate (CPC), and so on. (Conservatives are designated here by 'Cons'; not to be confused with the CPC, which after all had the acronym first!)

Don't forget that as a result of legislative changes to the Elections Act, there was a period of time during which some of the smaller parties fell below a specified threshold and were deregistered. You can see that some of their mainstay candidates ran as either "Independent" or "Not Affiliated" candidates during that period.

# of Candidate Returns either Nil, or Not Submitted to, or Not Yet Reviewed by, Elections Canada; by Party and Electoral Event


PartyParty Name2004 GE2006 By2006 GE
OthAnimal Alliance Environment Voters Party of Canada

1
OthCanadian Action Party11
5
OthChristian Heritage Party of Canada7
2
OthCommunist Party of Canada1

OthLibertarian Party of Canada1
4
OthMarijuana Party69
18
OthMarxist-Leninist Party of Canada41
59
OthWestern Block Party

1
IndIndep/No Affil10126
BQBloc Québécois3
1
LibLiberal Party of Canada2119
NDPNew Democratic Party29
7
PCProgressive Canadian Party1
3
ConsConservative Party of Canada11
39
GrnGreen Party of Canada48
34

I still have a bit of tidy-up to do on the by-election expenses, and then I'll start in on entering the 2008 Candidate returns ("as submitted").

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Monday, April 28, 2008

The "Donald Affadavit" List - Part III

This is the third part in the series ... Part I is found here and Part II is found here, while the list of Conservative candidates identified as participants in the in-out advertising plan ... which I have also just corrected today ... can be found here. Today's Hill Times has an article listing 11 of the 17 candidates who apparently received a rebate of election expenses prior to the commencement of the Elections Canada review/investigation. The Hill Times reports that all 11 of the elected MPs on the list were in that group, plus 6 other unsuccessful candidates (which it did not name).

[And with this blog-post, I'm going to conclude and set aside the listing of lists relating to election expenditures in the last elections, so I can get back to some more data gathering for the next election and some more analysis and search features for the Guide's users.]

The third main activity claimed to be a common practice of all political parties by Conservative Party's political operations officer Geoff Donald in his October 2007 affadavit, but for which he asserted only the Conservative Party was being criticized, is the claiming of local advertising expenses that were in some way "unidentified". The affadavit lists the names of 45 Liberal, Bloc and NDP candidates whose returns are said to include such expenses, but although exhibits were attached to the affadavit which probably indicated which election those expenses were incurred in, that piece of information was not included in the main affadavit. Thus, I have included the latest general election for each of the candidates below.

Curiously only one of the candidates named in this category has a last name starting with the letter 'N' or higher (you notice these kinds of things working with lists in the context of a database). We can guess that the review of candidate returns was perhaps terminated somewhere in the middle of this work. I haven't run an analysis of candidates by first letter of last name, but believe we're safe in assuming a pretty even distribution there.

List of 45 Liberal, NDP and BQ candidates named by the Conservatives as having unidentified local advertising expenses

(courtesy Stephen Taylor of the Blogging Tories, at stephentaylor.ca)

RidingElec: CandidateContest
QC Gatineau2006 GE: LEVESQUE, Anne (F)BQ-Lib
QC Trois-Rivières2004 GE: GUINDON, Jean-Éric (M)BQ-Lib
QC Manicouagan2006 GE: DUCASSE, Pierre (M)BQ-Cons
QC Hull – Aylmer2006 GE: LALIBERTÉ, Pierre (M)Lib-BQ
QC Notre-Dame-de-Grâce – Lachine2006 GE: DESLAURIERS, Peter (M)Lib-BQ
QC Saint-Laurent – Cartierville2006 GE: DION, Stéphane (M)Lib-BQ
NS Sydney – Victoria2006 GE: EDWARDS, John Hugh (M)Lib-NDP
ON Beaches – East York2006 GE: CHURLEY, Marilyn (F)Lib-NDP
ON Hamilton Mountain2004 GE: CHARLTON, Chris (F)Lib-NDP
ON Kenora2004 GE: BARCLAY, Susan (F)Lib-NDP
ON Nickel Belt2006 GE: GRAVELLE, Claude (M)Lib-NDP
ON Sudbury2006 GE: MARLEAU, Diane (F)Lib-NDP
ON Trinity – Spadina2004 GE: CHOW, Olivia (F)Lib-NDP
NL Humber – St. Barbe – Baie Verte2006 GE: BYRNE, Gerry (M)Lib-Cons
PE Egmont2006 GE: MCGUIRE, Joe (M)Lib-Cons
PE Malpeque2006 GE: EASTER, Wayne (M)Lib-Cons
NB Beauséjour2006 GE: LEBLANC, Dominic (M)Lib-Cons
NB Moncton – Riverview – Dieppe2006 GE: MURPHY, Brian (M)Lib-Cons
ON Ajax – Pickering2006 GE: HOLLAND, Mark (M)Lib-Cons
ON Huron – Bruce2006 GE: ROBERTSON, Grant (M)Lib-Cons
ON Kenora2006 GE: BARCLAY, Susan (F)Lib-Cons
ON Parry Sound – Muskoka2004 GE: MITCHELL, Andy (M)Lib-Cons
SK Desnethé – Missinippi – Churchill River2006 GE: JACKSON, Anita (F)Lib-Cons
SK Wascana2006 GE: GOODALE, Ralph (M)Lib-Cons
AB Edmonton Centre2004 GE: MCMASTER, Meghan (F)Lib-Cons
NS Halifax2006 GE: MACKINNON, Martin (M)NDP-Lib
ON Hamilton Centre2006 GE: CHRISTOPHERSON, David (M)NDP-Lib
ON Hamilton East – Stoney Creek2006 GE: MARSTON, Wayne (M)NDP-Lib
ON Hamilton Mountain2006 GE: CHARLTON, Chris (F)NDP-Lib
ON Toronto – Danforth2006 GE: LAYTON, Jack (M)NDP-Lib
ON Trinity – Spadina2006 GE: CHOW, Olivia (F)NDP-Lib
BC Burnaby – New Westminster2006 GE: JULIAN, Peter (M)NDP-Lib
BC British Columbia Southern Interior2006 GE: ATAMANENKO, Alex T. (M)NDP-Lib
QC Louis-Hébert2006 GE: BLANCHETTE, Denis (M)Cons-BQ
QC Pontiac2006 GE: BRAULT, Céline (F)Cons-BQ
NL St. John's East2006 GE: ANTLE, Paul (M)Cons-Lib
ON Nepean – Carleton2006 GE: GAFFNEY, Michael (M)Cons-Lib
ON Parry Sound – Muskoka2006 GE: MITCHELL, Andy (M)Cons-Lib
AB Edmonton East2006 GE: CHAPMAN, Arlene (F)Cons-Lib
BC Delta – Richmond East2004 GE: LEONHARDT, Shelley (F)Cons-Lib
BC Kamloops – Thompson – Cariboo2004 GE: CARROLL, Brian (M)Cons-Lib
SK Regina – Lumsden – Lake Centre2006 GE: ANDERSON, Gary (M)Cons-NDP
SK Regina – Qu'Appelle2006 GE: HERLE, Allyce (F)Cons-NDP
BC Kootenay – Columbia2006 GE: BURWELL, Jhim (M)Cons-NDP
BC Prince George – Peace River2006 GE: BAUDER, Nathan (M)Cons-NDP

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Tuesday, April 22, 2008

The "Donald Affadavit" List - Part II

Here is the list associated with the second activity described by Geoff Donald in his affadavit (see my earlier blog post here).

List of 28 Liberal, NDP and BQ candidates named by the Conservatives as participating in reciprocal transfers of funds between central and candidate campaigns


(courtesy Stephen Taylor of the Blogging Tories, at stephentaylor.ca)
RidingElec: CandidateContest
NB Madawaska – Restigouche2006 GE: MARTIN, Rodolphe (M)Lib-Cons
PE Malpeque2006 GE: EASTER, Wayne (M)Lib-Cons
NS Sackville – Eastern Shore2006 GE: STOFFER, Peter (M)NDP-Lib
BC British Columbia Southern Interior2006 GE: ATAMANENKO, Alex T. (M)NDP-Lib
BC Vancouver East2006 GE: DAVIES, Libby (F)NDP-Lib
BC Vancouver Island North2006 GE: BELL, Catherine J. (F)NDP-Cons
BC Fleetwood – Port Kells2006 GE: BELL, Barry (M)Cons-Lib
QC Mégantic – L'Érable2006 GE: CORRIVEAU, Yvan (M)Cons-BQ
BC Pitt Meadows – Maple Ridge – Mission2006 GE: BOCKING, Mike (M)Cons-NDP
BC Saanich – Gulf Islands2006 GE: BURGIS, Jennifer (F)Cons-NDP
NL Random – Burin – St. George's2004 GE: MCGRATH, Des (M)Lib-NDP
NS Dartmouth – Cole Harbour2004 GE: MACALPINE-GILLIS, Susan (F)Lib-NDP
ON Hamilton Mountain2004 GE: PHINNEY, Beth (F)Lib-NDP
ON Barrie2004 GE: CARROLL, Aileen (F)Lib-Cons
ON Don Valley West2004 GE: GODFREY, John (M)Lib-Cons
ON Glengarry – Prescott – Russell2004 GE: CAUVIER, Martin (M)Lib-Cons
ON Oak Ridges – Markham2004 GE: TEMELKOVSKI, Lui (M)Lib-Cons
ON Ottawa South2004 GE: MAZIGH, Monia (F)Lib-Cons
ON Ottawa West – Nepean2004 GE: CATTERALL, Marlene (F)Lib-Cons
QC Honoré-Mercier2004 GE: RODRIGUEZ, Pablo (M)Lib-BQ
QC Notre-Dame-de-Grâce – Lachine2004 GE: JENNINGS, Marlene (F)Lib-BQ
QC Pontiac2004 GE: LEDUC, L. Hubert (M)Lib-BQ
QC Saint-Laurent – Cartierville2004 GE: DION, Stéphane (M)Lib-BQ
QC Québec2004 GE: GAGNON, Christiane (F)BQ-Lib
ON Hamilton Centre2004 GE: CHRISTOPHERSON, David (M)NDP-Lib
ON Windsor – Tecumseh2004 GE: LIMOGES, Rick (M)NDP-Lib
ON Simcoe – Grey2004 GE: BONWICK, Paul (M)Cons-Lib
AB Calgary West2004 GE: PATTERSON, Tim (M)Cons-Lib

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The "Donald Affadavit" List - Part I

From Stephen Taylor's blog, the "Donald Affadavit" is an affadavit sworn by Conservative political operations officer Geoff Donald in October 2007, as part of the civil proceedings between the Conservative Party and Elections Canada.

In it, Mr. Donald detailed cases he believed would illustrate that there are three different aspects of activities, claimed to be common practices of all political parties, but for which Elections Canada is targetting only the Conservative Party. The three activities are: (i) grouped ad buys with "national" content, arranged by national campaign staff, (ii) reciprocal transfers of funds between the central and local campaigns or electoral district associations (EDAs), and (iii) unidentified advertising and publicity line items in candidate election expense returns. The cases spanned both the 2004 and 2006 General Elections.

There are a lot of names and ridings in that affadavit, which are proving time-consuming to document here in one sitting. Thus, first I offer the "Ad Buys". Tomorrow, I'll round things out with the "Transfers" and "Unidentified advertising".

As with the Conservative list of yesterday, clicking on the riding name will take you to the riding profile page (financial metrics pane) for that riding.

List of 59 Liberal and NDP candidates named by the Conservatives as participating in group advertising purchases containing possible national content


(courtesy Stephen Taylor of the Blogging Tories, at stephentaylor.ca)
RidingElec: CandidateContest
NB Beauséjour2006 GE: LEBLANC, Dominic (M)Lib-Cons
NB Fredericton2006 GE: SCOTT, Andy (M)Lib-Cons
NB Madawaska – Restigouche2006 GE: D'AMOURS, Jean-Claude (J.C.) (M)Lib-Cons
NB Miramichi2006 GE: HUBBARD, Charles Isaac (M)Lib-Cons
NB Moncton – Riverview – Dieppe2006 GE: MURPHY, Brian (M)Lib-Cons
NB Saint John2006 GE: ZED, Paul (M)Lib-Cons
NB Fundy Royal2006 GE: HUNTER, Eldon (M)Cons-Lib
NB New Brunswick Southwest2006 GE: SMITH, Stanley John (M)Cons-Lib
NB Tobique – Mactaquac2006 GE: SAVOY, Andy (M)Cons-Lib
NB Acadie – Bathurst2006 GE: MERSEREAU, Marcelle (F)NDP-Lib
ON Trinity – Spadina2006 GE: CHOW, Olivia (F)NDP-Lib
BC Burnaby – Douglas2006 GE: SIKSAY, Bill (M)NDP-Lib
BC Burnaby – New Westminster2006 GE: JULIAN, Peter (M)NDP-Lib
BC British Columbia Southern Interior2006 GE: ATAMANENKO, Alex T. (M)NDP-Lib
BC Vancouver East2006 GE: DAVIES, Libby (F)NDP-Lib
BC Victoria2006 GE: SAVOIE, Denise (F)NDP-Lib
BC Nanaimo – Cowichan2006 GE: CROWDER, Jean A. (F)NDP-Cons
BC New Westminster – Coquitlam2006 GE: BLACK, Dawn (F)NDP-Cons
BC Vancouver Island North2006 GE: BELL, Catherine J. (F)NDP-Cons
SK Blackstrap2006 GE: KOSSICK, Don (M)Cons-NDP
SK Palliser2006 GE: DUSEL, Jo-Anne (F)Cons-NDP
SK Regina – Lumsden – Lake Centre2006 GE: KOVATCH, Maurice (Moe) (M)Cons-NDP
SK Regina – Qu'Appelle2006 GE: NYSTROM, Lorne Edmund (M)Cons-NDP
SK Saskatoon – Humboldt2006 GE: MASON, Andrew (M)Cons-NDP
SK Saskatoon – Rosetown – Biggar2006 GE: WIEBE, Nettie (F)Cons-NDP
BC Nanaimo – Alberni2006 GE: UPPAL, Manjeet (M)Cons-NDP
BC Saanich – Gulf Islands2006 GE: BURGIS, Jennifer (F)Cons-NDP
SK Saskatoon – Wanuskewin2006 GE: MADDIN, Jim (M)Cons-Lib
BC Vancouver Centre2006 GE: ROBINSON, Svend J. (M)Lib-NDP
BC Vancouver Kingsway2006 GE: WADDELL, Ian (M)Lib-NDP
SK Wascana2006 GE: YUM, Helen (F)Lib-Cons
AB Calgary East2004 GE: MAXIM, James (M)Cons-Lib
AB Calgary Centre-North2004 GE: MCCLUSKY, Cathy (F)Cons-Lib
AB Calgary Northeast2004 GE: MUTI, Dale (M)Cons-Lib
AB Calgary – Nose Hill2004 GE: HANEY, Ted (M)Cons-Lib
AB Calgary Centre2004 GE: TURNBULL, Julia (F)Cons-Lib
AB Calgary Southeast2004 GE: TANNER, Jim (M)Cons-Lib
AB Calgary Southwest2004 GE: ROBERTS, Avalon (F)Cons-Lib
AB Calgary West2004 GE: THOMPSON, Justin (M)Cons-Lib
AB Crowfoot2004 GE: CAMPBELL, Adam (M)Cons-Lib
AB Fort McMurray – Athabasca2004 GE: FAULKNER, Doug (M)Cons-Lib
AB Edmonton – Mill Woods – Beaumont2004 GE: KILGOUR, David (M)Lib-Cons
AB Edmonton Centre2004 GE: MCLELLAN, Anne (F)Lib-Cons
AB Edmonton East2004 GE: BETHEL, John (M)Cons-Lib
AB Edmonton – Leduc2004 GE: KING, Bruce (M)Cons-Lib
AB Edmonton – St. Albert2004 GE: SAEED, Moe (M)Cons-Lib
AB Edmonton – Sherwood Park2004 GE: TOWNS, Maureen (F)Cons-Lib
AB Edmonton – Spruce Grove2004 GE: MATHER, Neil (M)Cons-Lib
AB Edmonton – Strathcona2004 GE: CARLSON, Debby (F)Cons-Lib
AB Lethbridge2004 GE: NICOL, Ken (M)Cons-Lib
AB Macleod2004 GE: SHADE, Chris (M)Cons-Lib
AB Medicine Hat2004 GE: COCKS, Bill (M)Cons-Lib
AB Peace River2004 GE: CARLSTROM, Lyle (M)Cons-Lib
AB Red Deer2004 GE: KURATA, Luke (M)Cons-Lib
AB Vegreville – Wainwright2004 GE: STEWART, Duff (M)Cons-Lib
AB Westlock – St. Paul2004 GE: DION, Joe (M)Cons-Lib
AB Wetaskiwin2004 GE: BONNETT, Rick (M)Cons-Lib
AB Wild Rose2004 GE: STEWART, Judy (F)Cons-Lib
AB Yellowhead2004 GE: CROSSLEY, Peter (M)Cons-Lib

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Tuesday, February 5, 2008

2004 Campaign Finance and Spending

Campaign finance and spending data have now been added to all the 2003 Representation Order riding profile pages, for the 2004 General Election.

As before, if a candidate's return has not yet been reviewed by Elections Canada, his or her data "as submitted" is shown in italics. I've run a quick crosstab to see which party's returns are most affected by this backlog, and the answer is ... mainly the smaller parties. Here are the counts of not yet reviewed + not apparently submitted for the various electoral events entered into the Pundits' Guide so far:

# of Candidate Returns Not Submitted to, or Not Yet Reviewed by, Elections Canada, by Party and Electoral Event


PartyParty Name2004 GE2006 By2006 GE
OthAnimal Alliance Environment Voters Party of Canada1
OthCanadian Action Party1729
OthChristian Heritage Party of Canada85
OthCommunist Party of Canada5
OthLibertarian Party of Canada15
OthMarijuana Party6918
OthMarxist-Leninist Party of Canada4462
OthWestern Block Party1
IndIndependent12127
IndNo Affiliation41
BQBloc Québécois53
LibLiberal Party of Canada36265
NDPNew Democratic Party51238
PCProgressive Canadian Party16
ConsConservative Party of Canada23192
GrnGreen Party of Canada105173


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Unrelated update: According to this news release from Elections Canada late last week, and if I have my math right, Thursday February 7 is the first day on which the Prime Minister can call a by-election for the riding of Westmount – Ville-Marie. Again, if I didn't mess up the counting, Monday February 11 is the last day on which he could call it for March 17, 2008 to coincide with the other 4 by-elections.

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