Pundits' Guide to Canadian Elections

Current Party Standings and Nominations

 ConsNDPLibBQGrnOthIndTOTAL
Won in last general election1661033441  308
By-election vacancies-9-3-3    -15
By-election wins825    15
Left the caucus-4-7-2-3  -3-19
[Re-]Joined the caucus1 21121219
Vacancies      -22
CURRENT STANDINGS16295362227306
Retiring Incumbents27951  244
As yet Unrenominated Incumbents41411  121
Nominated - Own Caucus1317230 223240
Nominated - Different Caucus 1     1
Nominated - Non-incumbents7270180449481424

Latest Blog Post

21 MPs Still Unconfirmed for 2015 Ballot, and Other Nominations Trivia

February 23rd, 2015 | No Comments »

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Nomination Meetings by Party and Date, to February 22, 2015

With an election looming on the horizon, 21 Members of Parliament have still not been confirmed as candidates for the upcoming federal election, while 44 others are bowing out, and 2 Commons seats sit vacant.

The "As yet Unrenominated Incumbents" list includes MPs from the Conservatives, Liberals, Bloc and one Independent MP who has yet to confirm his intention, but two-thirds of them are from the NDP.

That party has recently stepped up its pace of nominations, confirming 38 candidates since the new year, with another 22 meetings scheduled (including 5 of the still unnominated NDP MPs). The Liberals, who moved ahead of the other parties in selected candidates early in the new year, have nominated 23 candidates since the start of the year, with another 10 meetings scheduled, while the Conservatives have selected 11 candidates (that I can track so far) in that period, with 1 further scheduled meeting on the books that I'm aware of.

Lopping off the first week of January when no-one selected any candidates, that's six weeks: with the NDP logging 6 candidates per week, the Liberals 4 candidates weekly, and the Conservatives 2. The Green Party also confirmed at least 21 candidates so far in 2015.

Meanwhile, there are now 44 sitting MPs who intend to step back when the writ is issued; with the Conservative Party accounting for 27 so far (including a number who had already been nominated, such as the two who retired since our last update, John Baird and Randy Kamp), and the NDP logging its 9th with the announcement of Alexandrine Latendresse in Louis-Saint-Laurent, joining 5 current Liberal MPs (including one formerly elected as a New Democrat), 1 current Bloc Québécois MP (elected under the NDP banner), and 2 Independents MP (Sana Hassainia, who was also elected with the NDP, and André Bellavance who was elected with the Bloc).

Retiring Incumbents and Open Seats, 1993 GE – 42nd GE
(updated to February 22, 2015, 2015)

General Election Seats Retiring Incumbents New Seats Open Seats
1993 GE 295 72   72
1997 GE 301 43 6 49
2000 GE 301 25   25
2004 GE 308 58 7 65
2006 GE 308 28   28
2008 GE 308 38   38
2011 GE 308 19   19
42nd GE 338 44 + 2 vacant 30 74 (+2)

That number compares to the 58 incumbents who retired in 2004, and the recent high of 72 retiring incumbents in 1993.

Retiring (and Resigned) Incumbents, 41st Parliament, by Year First Elected

(updated to February 22, 2015)

Class of Cons NDP Lib BQ Ind
Total = 44 27 9 5 1 2 + 2 vacant
1993 Ablonczy
Breitkreuz
Harris
       
1996 (By)     Byrne    
1997 Anders
Goldring
Keddy
Vellacott
Davies
Godin
     
1999 (By)     Cotler    
2000 Lunney Comartin      
2003 By Schellenberger        
2004 Devolin
Hiebert
Kamp
Kormarnicki
O'Connor
Preston
Smith
Crowder     Bellavance
2006 Allen
Baird
Bruinooge
Davidson
Hawn
Mayes
Norlock
Storseth
Atamanenko
Charlton
    Del Mastro
2008 Boughen
Kerr
Payne
  Valeriote   Thibeault
2011   Brahmi
Latendresse
Morin (M-C)
Hsu
St-Denis
Patry Hassainia

Now, there are two ways to leave politics before an election: announcing you won't be running again, and losing your nomination. Obviously Conservative MP Rob Anders failed in two attempts to secure a Conservative nomination, and now Eve Adams – having been unable to win a Conservative nomination in Oakville North-Burlington, ON, and being informed by her then-party that they would not approve her to contest another riding – will try to win the Liberal nomination in the north Toronto riding of Eglinton-Lawrence, ON.

More recently among the orange team, there are now at least 5 several MPs contemplating the same fate. As we reported a few weeks ago, three NDP MPs were either being challenged or were expecting challenges – with a fourth surfacing later that day, and then last week La Presse reported three of the same names, along with a new one.

Thirty of 31 non-retiring Liberal MPs have now been renominated, with only Conservative-turned-Liberal MP Eve Adams outstanding.

Four Conservative MPs have not yet been renominated:

  • Cabinet ministers: Julian Fantino (who also insists he'll run again), and junior minister Lynne Yelich
  • Finance Committee Chair James Rajotte of Edmonton (who reiterated to Don Martin that he's planning to run again), and Leon Benoit also of Alberta (who doesn't appear to have a seat to run in)

Fourteen NDP MPs have not yet been renominated (though 5 of them have meetings scheduled):

  • Long-timers: Jack Harris (who says he is running again), Carol Hughes (mtg Mar 7), John Rafferty, Dennis Bevington, and leader Tom Mulcair
  • First-timers: Isabelle Morin (mtg Feb 27), Dan Harris (mtg Mar 1), Réjean Genest, Pierre Jacob, and François Lapointe
  • Marc-André Morin in Laurentides-Labelle, QC (mtg Mar 1) and Francine Raynault in Joliette, QC (mtg Mar 7) will learn their fates within the next two weeks. Morin is facing local doctor, Simon-Paul Landry, while Raynault is being challenged by a local councillor and former aide to her, Danielle Landreville.
  • Jeanne-Le Ber, QC MP Tyrone Benskin is being challenged by two other candidates for the NDP nomination in the new riding of Ville-Marie–Le Sud-Ouest–Île-des-Sœurs, QC, lawyer Allison Turner and digital policy analyst Vincent Héritier. They have yet to settle on a meeting date.
  • José Nunez-Melo who currently represents the riding of Laval, QC has had an opponent in the field in his chosen riding of Vimy, QC since December, the co-chair of the party's Women's Commission, Jacinthe Gagnon. No meeting date has been set there either.
  • La Presse reported that Shefford MP Réjean Genest is one of the MPs who will be challenged for his nomination, but I haven't seen who the challenger could be yet. Pierre Jacob announced a health leave last October, but hasn't made any further announcement that I'm aware of. François Lapointe certainly sounds like he is running again, and I haven't seen any evidence of a challenge to his nomination.

Of the others:

  • Louis Plamandon of the BQ says he's running again, but hasn't been renominated yet.
  • Massimo Pacetti remains the question mark. Jean Lapierre told CTV Power Play the other week that the Liberals would not likely sanction his running again under their banner, and were thinking of perhaps former Martin-era cabinet minister Liza Frulla for his seat of Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel, QC instead. The NDP actually has a <spit-take> contested nomination in that safest of all Liberal seats in north Montreal tonight.
  • As for Manon Perreault, who is facing legal proceedings after being charged with allegedly falsely accusing a former staffmember of theft, she has told her local paper that she intends to run again, whether it's with the NDP or not. To date, no New Democrat has stepped forward to run for the nominaiton in her riding of Montcalm, though the Bloc Québécois just concluded a nomination contest there the other week.

Completing their slates in time for any constantly-rumoured but constantly-denied early election continues to be a challenge for the major parties. Ranking by the number of non-incumbent seats to fill (the harder job), they have the following numbers of non-incumbent candidates to recruit and nominate, in order to have a full slate. Assume we have roughly 30 weeks left before nomination day in the campaign. That leaves:

  • NDP – 181 non-incumbents still to nominate (would need to nominate 6 per week from now until then)
  • Conservatives – 131 non-incumbents still to nominate (would need just over 4 per week)
  • Liberals – 127 non-incumbents still to nominate (would need around 4 per week)
  • Greens – 287 non-incumbents still to nominate (will need just under 10 nominations per week to be ready for October)

Party Nominations by Province, 42nd General Election

(updated to February 22, 2015) (Scroll right to view full table)

  YT NT NU BC AB SK MB ON QC NB NS PE NL Tot Pct Wom Pct
Seats 1 1 1 42 34 14 14 121 78 10 11 4 7 338    
Lib 1     20 16 8 10 77 53 7 10 4 4 210 62% 70 33.3%
NDP       24 7 9 4 40 50 2 4 2 1 143 42% 57 39.9%
Grn       13 8 3 6 15 1   3 2   51 15% 20 39.2%
BQ                 4         4 1%    
Cons 1   1 27 31 11 11 82 27 7 3 2   203 60% 38 18.7%
Ind         1   1   1       1 4 1% 1 25.0%
Oth 1     9 7 2 2 21 7 1       50 15% 3 6.0%

Earlier Blog Posts

Third Québec NDP MP facing nomination challenge

January 30th, 2015

When Joliette Ward 4 councillor Danielle Landreville announces her bid for the NDP nomination in the north shore riding of Joliette, QC Friday morning, it will be the third NDP riding in Québec to see a challenger announce a nomination bid before the sitting MP could do so. The sitting Member of Parliament in Joliette […]

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How the new federal electoral map will create new political realities

January 28th, 2015

[Welcome, National Newswatch readers!] by Alice Funke, for the Hill Times Power & Influence Magazine, Winter 2015; Reprinted with kind permission [Note: This article was penned for a November 14 deadline. The analysis holds up pretty well, though a few of the metrics have changed, as noted below.] ———————————— How will the 30 new ridings […]

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Latest MP retirements put 2015 open seat count at 25-year high

January 17th, 2015

[Welcome, National Newswatch readers!] The 2015 election won't set a record for the number of retiring MPs, but given the 30 new seats being added to the House of Commons, it's setting a 25-year record for the largest number of open seats. An open seat is one having no sitting Member of Parliament running as […]

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Re-up-UPDATED: How a little-noticed clause in the Fair Elections Act up-ends all conventional election timing speculation

January 15th, 2015

[Welcome, National Newswatch readers!] UPDATE: See below for two points of clarification – on the indexation of third-party spending limits, and the scope of the limitation on fundraising cost exemptions. RE-UPDATE: [Feb 2, 2015] On further examination of the legislation, Elections Canada lawyers believe the daily pro-rated value of the central and candidate expense limits […]

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November is for Nominations

November 26th, 2014

Between them, the opposition NDP and Liberal parties will have nominated eighty candidates in the month of November alone, a sure sign that election readiness is top of mind in the year or so leading up to the next federal general election. Add those to the at least 11 Conservative nomination meetings (and likely more), […]

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By-Election Shocker! Conservatives retain Whitby-Oshawa

November 18th, 2014

[Welcome, National Newswatch readers!] By the time all the ballots were counted Monday night, former Whitby mayor Pat Perkins held Whitby-Oshawa for the Conservative Party with nearly 50% of the vote. You could be forgiven for thinking this result was unlikely, given the extent to which Liberal talking points penetrated the media's pre-game analysis, egged […]

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UPDATED: Conservatives pass 50% mark in nominating 2015 slate

November 10th, 2014

As of this past week, the Conservative Party reached the 50% milestone in terms of the percentage of its 2015 slate of candidates nominated on the new boundaries. The effort required to bring the governing party to this level of readiness – and before any of its competitors, though in fairness it had a lot […]

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A Note on New Riding Names

November 9th, 2014

There's probably a longer post to be had on things to watch out for when analyzing post-redistribution ridings and the transposition of votes, but it seems one source of confusion that needs to be urgently ironed out is the fact that 31 new ridings have had their names changed by an Act of Parliament *after* […]

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UPDATED: 2015 Federal: The Not-Running and the Not-Sure

November 9th, 2014

[Welcome, National Newswatch readers!] While the number of MPs announcing their retirement at the next election might seem high, it's still not that big by historical standards. [UPDATE: The date of Liberal MP Ralph Goodale’s November 13 nomination meeting has been added below, thanks to commenter Bruce. Also, thanks to Will at National Newswatch for […]

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