Dewar camp releases full NDP Leadership poll results

February 13th, 2012

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[Welcome, National Newswatch readers!]

The Paul Dewar campaign just released further regional details of their leadership poll, and make a clear pitch to Brian Topp's supporters.


Dear New Democrats,

I want to share with you some of the polling that has been done by the Paul Dewar campaign to give you a clear indication of how this leadership race is shaping up.

On February 8th and 9th our campaign used an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) poll to contact 56,522 households of NDP members according to the latest NDP membership data (as of February 2nd) from Federal Office. Of those households 6,373 responded from every region of Canada.

The research asked respondents to select their first and second choice for leader from a list of the candidates. The poll also asked respondents if they are a current NDP member. Results were then weighted to reflect the membership numbers in each province – and have a margin of error of 1.19%.

The results of the polling are as follows:


Candidate Count %
Niki Ashton 466 7.3%
Nathan Cullen 470 7.4%
Paul Dewar 726 11.4%
Thomas Mulcair 1098 17.2%
Peggy Nash 807 12.7%
Romeo Saganash 171 2.7%
Martin Singh 154 2.4%
Brian Topp 508 8.0%
Undecided 1973 31.0%
Total 6373 100.0%

FIRST CHOICE (weighted to NDP membership numbers by province)

Thomas Mulcair 25.5%
Peggy Nash 16.8%
Paul Dewar 15.1%
Nathan Cullen 12.8%
Brian Topp 12.7%
Niki Ashton 9.5%
Martin Singh 4.1%
Romeo Saganash 3.6%

SECOND CHOICE (weighted to NDP membership numbers by province)

Paul Dewar 21.2%
Peggy Nash 19.4%
Thomas Mulcair 16.7%
Nathan Cullen 14.4%
Brian Topp 12.4%
Niki Ashton 10.7%
Romeo Saganash 3.6%
Martin Singh 1.8%

Our polling results challenge some of the assumptions about this race that circulate in the national media. I won't reveal our exact regional breaks as that information is integral to our strategy and besides the other campaigns can do their own polling.

Our regional research does show that Thomas Mulcair leads handily in Quebec with over 50% of the vote. This is what provides Mulcair with his national lead. Brian Topp runs fourth in Quebec. Nathan Cullen runs first in BC and Brian Topp runs third. In Ontario, Peggy Nash runs first and Paul Dewar and Thomas Mulcair are statistically tied for second. Brian Topp runs a distant fourth.

Most important, the results show that nobody will win on the first ballot; that second ballot support is essential in a one-member-one vote system; that the race is narrowing to a top three, and that Paul Dewar is very well positioned to win.

Finally, I want to comment directly on the leadership campaign and why I support Paul Dewar.

My background is in organizing and more than any other candidate Paul Dewar has grassroots organizing experience. He understands that we will not win the next election without building a true grassroots on-the-ground base in our Quebec ridings and in the next 70 ridings outside of Quebec.

Paul has faced a withering attack during this campaign about his abilities in the French language. He is not the best French speaker of the leadership candidates, but he has performed admirably in both French and English debates and improves everyday. Paul's French comprehension is excellent and like Jack, Paul knows how to connect with voters. Quebec voters, like all voters, will ultimately judge us on our values and principles and those must be social democratic values and principles. In 2011, Quebecers accepted Jack's offer to join us in building a social democratic governing option.

Paul Dewar has not reshaped or adjusted his social democratic principles and values just for this leadership campaign. It is no surprise that Paul has released more policy than the other candidates, as he wants to ensure New Democrats know what he is all about and that he is a genuine social democrat.

Paul is not about to dishonour or set aside our party's principles. He is not about moving our party to the right and becoming another Liberal Party. He will lead and campaign as who we really are, and not sacrifice the hard work of the past to create a new "Third Way," or emulate Tony Blair to form the next government.

At the same time Paul knows that we must encourage more Canadians to get involved in politics and must especially mobilize the energy of young people.

Paul Dewar recognizes the contributions made to this party by thousands of members and activists. He will not alienate or remove the members and staff who have done an excellent job working with Jack, at the Federal Office and in the caucus to help get us where we are today. We must all work together when this leadership campaign is over.

Our party needs a leader in the House of Commons ready to take on Stephen Harper and the regressive Tory agenda the day after our leadership convention is over.

As an organizer, international aid worker, teacher, union activist and MP elected three times, Paul embodies the meaning of Jack's call on all of us to take better care of each other.

Paul Dewar is the right leader at the right time for our party.


Dan Mackenzie
Campaign Manager
Paul Dewar for Leader


For the latest on the NDP Leadership Race, don't forget to follow the half-hourly news updates, and social media tickers at the Pundits' Guide NDPLdr portal page:

4 Responses to “Dewar camp releases full NDP Leadership poll results”

  1. Ken Summers says:

    Maybe the part of the text that suggests low levels of support is a pitch to Topp supporters to come over to Dewar.

    But a lot of us think that narrative of veiled negative contrasts to another candidate[s] is entirely directed at Mulcair.

    If you know different, then the campaign badly missed its mark on this one, even with the most engaged members.

  2. Ken Summers says:

    I’m belatedly releasing that likely the anti-Mulcair diatribe is pitched especially to Topp supporters.

    If so, I think its pitching to presumed characteristics of Topp supporters.

  3. I will remove my post above Alice. I will continue to support Topp because he is bilingual and has class.

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