Party Scorecard – 2011 General Election
Just before the election began, we looked at some election metrics designed to help measure the progress of Canada's political parties during the campaign.
While some of them were financial and thus won't be known for this campaign for awhile, it might be a good time – with nearly all the validated results in – to take a look at the party scorecard.
Party Scorecard – 2011 GE
Seeing the results this way is pretty amazing now: the NDP gained nearly 2 million votes during this campaign, nearly doubling their performance in 2008. The Conservatives gained another two-thirds of a million votes, while the Liberals dropped around 850 thousand, and the Bloc shed just over a third of its support.
One measure that could be a candidate for a leading indicator is the number of ridings in which the party was rebate eligible. The full time series is given here, although note that the criterion for being rebate eligible changed from 15% of valid ballots down to 10% in 2004, and so really I've shown the number of ridings where the party obtained 10% of the vote or greater in order to be comparable.
Number of Ridings Where a Party Obtained 10% of Valid Ballots or More in a General Election, 1988-2011
[Click on image to open full-sized version]
What's interesting to note is that the period 1988-2011 seems to have represented a full electoral cycle, and one that's returned Canada's House of Commons to basically a three-party system, albeit one with the three main parties in a different order, but also with representatives of a few smaller parties as well.
We'll continue with more metrics next time.
Note that nine ridings (all remote ridings, or those with a few remote communities) are still in the "preliminary result" stage. As soon as all the ballot boxes can be returned to the returning offices for the official counts, those ridings will be moved to a "validated result" stage. Meanwhile there are or will be at least four recounts to be concluded as well, before the final results can be published.