Roadmap to May 2: British Columbia
[Welcome, National Newswatch readers!]
Things have moved so fast during this election, that I've started and tossed more blogposts than usual. But time to put my own list of ridings in play to paper before it's too late.
In doing so, I have tried my best to avoid looking at the many other lists out there, for fear of contaminating my own perceptions. I did answer Calgary Grit's questionnaire in a timestamped textfile that's been sitting on my hard-drive for a few weeks. At the time I had a higher NDP seat count than any of the other contestants, but one that now seems low by many standards.
Still, as any regular reader would know by now, I favour the qualitative approach to calling individual seats when the numbers alone won"t do the job, and in this election they clearly won't. That does leave things open to greater influence of the heart than head, but that's the risk we all take on E-minus-4, isn't it.
Anyway, that being said, I'll forge ahead with my look at the races to watch, starting out west.
Strong contested races:
- Kamloops – Thompson – Cariboo - Cons-NDP – Michael Crawford is back for a third try and his second contest against first-time Conservative M.P. Cathy McLeod, who was promoted to Parliamentary Secretary not long before the
budgetgovernment was defeated. Ridings in Kamloops are usually considered the provincial bellwethers, so it would be ground zero for an NDP tsunami hitting B.C. No wonder Layton has been there campaigning with Crawford in both the pre-election and election campaigns, and is back again today. - Kootenay – Columbia - Cons-NDP – While longstanding Reform-turned-Alliance-turned-Conservative M.P. Jim Abbott had a commanding lead in this riding since his first election in the 1993 Reform sweep, his frequent attacks on the NDP in Members' Statements (the period before Question Period in the House of Commons) signalled the party's concern about who the threat would be here after his retirement. After increasingly strong second place finishes in recent campaigns, the NDP had a contested nomination here this time, won by the 1997 Liberal candidate and since-then three-term Mayor of Invermere, Mark Shmigelsky. Again, Layton has been back numerous times to support the campaign, while the Prime Minister paid several visits over the last few years as well.
- Surrey North - Cons-NDP – Easily one of the hottest races in the province, pitting one-term Conservative M.P. Dona Cadman against first-time NDP candidate Jasbir Sandhu and 2000 Liberal candidate Shinder Purewal. Without the benefit of a strong central campaign to support him, Purewal's vote may well be determinative in the outcome, but not likely to carry the day. Both the Conservative and NDP leaders tours have made repeated stops here, before and during the campaign, though the Surrey News has dubbed Cadman "the phantom candidate".
- Newton – North Delta - Lib-NDP-Cons – Both the NDP and Conservatives have designs on this Liberal seat held by two-term Liberal M.P. Sukh Dhaliwal. The NDP's chances improved when Jack Layton was able to recruit former BC Teachers' Federation president Jinny Sims to run, while the Conservatives are running businesswoman Mani Fallon. Both Surrey North's Shinder Purewal and Sukh Dhaliwal here have been endorsed by controversial Sikh community figure Ripudaman Singh Malik, as has Conservative candidate Wai Young in Vancouver South.
- Richmond - Cons-Lib – I believe the Liberals had been hoping this would prove more of a race before they had to move to a survival footing. Still former Reform-turned-Liberal MP Joe Peschisolido won a very competitive contested nomination, and so presumably has a strong enough team of his own to run against first-term Conservative M.P. Alice Wong without any help from the centre.
- Pitt Meadows – Maple Ridge – Mission - Cons-NDP – A previously close two-way race that became lopsided in 2008 when the Liberal vote collapsed and switched to the Conservatives. New Democrats are hoping that armed with the HST as an issue, and new candidate Craig Speirs, a Maple Ridge city councillor, that they will be in a competitive position once again against three-term Conservative M.P. Randy Kamp.
- Burnaby – Douglas - NDP-Cons – At one time the Conservatives' top priority target in the province, given its perennial status as a close race, and the recent retirement of three-term NDP M.P. Bill Siksay, apparently party officials were telling CTV's Bob Fife they were less hopeful Thursday. Certainly returning Conservative Ronald Leung has attracted some of the region's top organizers in his second bid for the riding, while most observers agree that Simon Fraser professor Kennedy Stewart is a very strong entry for the NDP to defend the seat with. A 3-way race with the Liberals until 2008, it is widely conceded to be a two person race between Stewart and Leung, that will now be decided as much by regional trends as by the local ground game.
- Vancouver Quadra - Lib-Cons – A key Conservative target against a Liberal incumbent who only narrowly won in a by-election, though improved her standing in 2008. This will be the third fight between Conservative candidate and business lecturer Deborah Meredith, and twice-elected Liberal M.P. Joyce Murray. If the Liberals lose the seat, they will blame it on "the splits" but it's as likely that Liberal vote here actually switches to the Conservatives as well.
- Vancouver South - Lib-Cons – Three-term Liberal MP and former NDP premier Ujjal Dosanjh may have saved his seat by tying his Conservative opponent Wei Young to a controversial figure within the Sikh community, but at the expense of two other Liberal colleagues in the lower mainland (including MP Sukh Dhaliwal) who had also received the individual's blessing. His riding is a highly-prized Conservative target, and as a floor-crosser Dosanjh could probably not expect to count on the NDP bowing out of campaigning to give him a hand either. Having won by a 20-vote margin last time, the riding will be hard-fought and watched across the country.
- North Vancouver - Cons-Lib – In more optimistic times, this seat was high on Liberals' list of hoped-for pickups, after Taleeb Noormohamed's upset nomination victory. The leader's tour has not been back since the early days of the campaign, but Noormohamed is a favourite of the strategic voting sites. We'll see if that's enough to overcome first-term Conservative M.P. Andrew Saxton in this perennially close race, but meanwhile the NDP's Michael Charrois has been running a very visible online campaign, both in the pre-election and campaign periods.
- West Vancouver – Sunshine Coast – Sea to Sky Country - Cons-Lib – Another hoped-for Liberal pickup that seems to have become distracted by a threatened lawsuit by Liberal candidate Daniel Veniez against first-term Conservative M.P. John Weston. Of course it's hard to read from the other side of the country, but these kinds of things don't usually bode well.
- Vancouver Island North - Cons-NDP – On the other hand, this may be the single most hard-fought race between the Conservatives and NDP right now. Indian Affairs Minister John Duncan is in a tough two-way fight with the NDP's Ronna Rae Leonard, with both the Prime Minister and NDP Leader Jack Layton heading in for their third visit each to the riding this weekend, if I've counted correctly. This is virtually unprecedented in my recent memory, though of course easier to pull off in a metropolitan riding. But this riding is on the very top of an island on the far west coast of the country. The two men should have car-pooled. Meanwhile, it would not be sporting to mention this race without a shoutout to well-known Liberal blogger Jeff Jedras, who is managing the campaign of their Mike Holland, and has actually had canvassers out working the riding, after the party tanked last time. Any growth in Holland's vote will have an impact on the eventual outcome, but the exact nature of that impact is hard to know, though notably the drop in Liberal vote there last time largely switched to Duncan and the Conservatives.
- Esquimalt – Juan de Fuca - 3-way race – I sincerely believe that with the retirement of Keith Martin, first elected as a Reform Party MP but who finished his career as a Liberal, the contest in this riding would be expected to return to its historical NDP-Conservative pattern. Liberals disagree, pointing to the growth of new suburban development, while the Conservatives had the riding listed as a likely pickup after Troy de Souza narrowly missed defeating Martin last time, and the NDP thinks Randall Garrison is their certain way back to taking the seat again. Certainly it is being vigourously contested by all 3 parties, and for that reason alone will likely show up on this election's list of three-way races, regardless of who wins it.
- Saanich – Gulf Islands - Cons-Grn – One of the final battles to be decided on election night will be Elizabeth May's third attempt to win a seat as leader of the Green Party. They've commissioned a poll on her chances and released its results, but the Green Party unfortunately has cried wolf with me a few times too often, especially when they release polls containing results that never pan out by Election Day and in fact are often wildly off-base. To accept the Green Party's numbers is to believe that both the NDP and Liberals are below 10% in spite of running decent sized campaigns, that incumbent Conservative MP Gary Lunn can hold his 2006 vote, and that everyone else has gone to Elizabeth May. And that her team can get all supporters out to the polls. But they are clearly trying to spin that poll into a win, and some of the seat prediction sites have taken it at face value. Someone whose judgement I trust on the matter more, Greg Morrow of democraticSpace, says that the riding will be closer than thought. Definitely worth waiting up for, one way or the other.
Outside chances:
- Prince George – Peace River - Cons-NDP – In the kind of bold move people will look back on when assessing the NDP's campaign, Layton was able to recruit the former Highways Minister and Deputy Premier, Lois Boone, to put his party squarely in the running in a seat that would have hitherto been conceded on Day 1 of any election campaign. If she wins, it would represent a historic change in the riding's traditionally conservative federal voting patterns, but no other NDP candidate would have been better positioned to pull off that feat. The Conservatives held a seven-person contested nomination to replace Jay Hill as their candidate here, which was won by Bob Zimmer, who was a founding member of the Reform Party in 1988.
- Okanagan – Coquihalla - Cons-NDP-Ind – Vacated suddenly by the retirement announcement of former Canadian Alliance leader and long-time Conservative M.P. Stockwell Day before the budget was defeated, the party was left scrambling to conduct a competitive nomination process inside of a week. In these kinds of situations, everything has to go off without a hitch, but they didn't get that lucky this time, with questions being raised about how certain nomination candidates could have had their candidate vetting packages prepared so quickly (it's quite a lot of work), while others were left scrambling to meet a very tight deadline. In the end, Penticton city councillor Dan Albas won the nomination, and long-time party activist and realtor Sean Upshaw, who had been prevented from entering the race, decided to run instead as a full-time Independent candidate. Meanwhile, the NDP recruited an unusually strong candidate in three-term municipal councillor David Finnis who was featured in Layton's recent townhall meeting in Kamloops. Here is a case where the famous "vote splits" might produce an unusual result. The Liberals are running Margot Kidder's brother John Kidder, who won a contested nomination to replace former candidate Ross Rebagliati after he stepped down several months ago.
- Fleetwood – Port Kells - Cons-NDP – A riding that had featured close three-way races in 2004 and 2006, but where the Liberals and NDP held their raw vote and the Conservatives grew in 2008 from out of the riding's increased population. The question here is what happens to the Liberal vote, particularly in the absence of a high-powered candidate such as former MLA Brenda Locke who had run in 2004 and 2006. Will realtor Pam Dhanoa be able to keep Locke's 12,500 strong vote intact or if not, as I suspect, will it move to Conservative M.P. Nina Grewal or towards returning NDP candidate Nao Fernando. Again, another case study in wild card vote splits.
- Burnaby – New Westminster - NDP-Cons – A corollary Conservative target to Burnaby-Douglas, but one that's been much stronger for the NDP. Former Reform-turned-Canadian Alliance M.P. Paul Forseth won the Conservative nomination here, after being out of town and thus unable to run for the by-election nomination in his former riding of New Westminster-Coquitlam. Prevailing regional trends will play to incumbent NDP MP Peter Julian's favour, I expect.
- New Westminster – Coquitlam - NDP-Cons – Another corollary target for the Conservative Party in the northeastern suburbs of Vancouver, where returning Conservative candidate Diana Dilworth is trying for a better outcome against by-election victor Fin Donnelly for the NDP. Donnelly won the by-election with nearly 50% of the vote, however, and would be favoured to keep the seat, given provincial trends today.
- Vancouver Kingsway - NDP-Lib-Cons – Had been a Liberal hope before the national campaign went south. An early look-see by the National Post's John Ivison suggested first-term Don Davies was not facing a serious threat from returning Liberal candidate Wendy Yuan. However, the riding was also a 3-way fight with the Conservatives in 2008, who have eyed it as a possible beneficiary of vote splitting, though given the repudiation of that party here after David Emerson crossed the floor, that seems a bit more of a long shot now.
- Vancouver Centre - Lib-??? – One of the truly 4-way races in the country. It is hard to know what could happen here, and Hedy Fry has been falsely counted out many times before. But this is the kind of a seat where "the splits" can claim victims. Also, who's in second? No idea.
- Nanaimo – Alberni - Cons-NDP – There's some late-day word that the Conservative incumbent is facing more pushback than usual, notwithstanding the improved demographics for his party in this riding (where Alberta seniors go to retire). Apparently the NDP's Zeni Maartman is closing in on four-term M.P. James Lunney, which given the NDP's residual organizational strength throughout the riding they could possibly convert into a win.
I am not expecting any change in the following ridings:
- Cariboo – Prince George - Cons – Long-time Reform-turned-Alliance-turned Conservative M.P. Dick Harris should hold the seat, but against an improved NDP vote. All bets are off next time if the Class of 1993 MP retires, however — particularly if Jack Layton could recruit former provincial cabinet minister Dave Zirnhelt or a prominent First Nations leader to run, as the NDP held this seat federally in 1988 and holds parts of it provincially off and on.
- Skeena – Bulkley Valley - NDP – No-one is touching the NDP's environment critic, and father of new twins, Nathan Cullen, this time.
- British Columbia Southern Interior - NDP – Alex Atamanenko will benefit from a greatly improved ability to assemble a coalition of progressive voters in this already strongly NDP-leaning Interior riding.
- Kelowna – Lake Country - Cons – A longstanding Conservative voting history favours the return of Ron Cannan.
- Okanagan – Shuswap - Cons – Same goes for Conservative incumbent Colin Mayes.
- Abbotsford - Cons – This Fraser Valley seat is Conservative heartland and will return Ed Fast.
- Chilliwack – Fraser Canyon - Cons – Again, while a tiny bit more competitive than Abbotsford, the Conservatives would have to be down to their rock-bottom core before Mark Strahl would fail to hang on to his dad's seat, notwithstanding some nomination hiccups within the Conservative riding association, and the high profile defection of a local conservative municipal councillor to run for the Liberals.
- Langley - Cons – You would be betting long odds against Mark Warawa being returned for the Conservatives here.
- South Surrey – White Rock – Cloverdale - Cons – Russ Hiebert's biggest enemy here may have been his own constituency expenses spending record, and associated discontent in the riding association, that has resulted in an independent Conservative running against him, along with a Progressive Canadian candidate and a former Conservative switching to run for the Liberals. I'm still betting on him winning, but it will have been a bit tougher slog than before.
- Delta – Richmond East - Cons – Even though some hiccups followed the retirement of John Cummins, and the contested nomination victory of Dale Saip, whose financial troubles led to his rapid resignation and replacement by Kerry-Lynne Findlay as Conservative candidate, there would have to be tectonic movements on this delta for a conservative not to win here.
- Port Moody – Westwood – Port Coquitlam - Cons – With all the other departures of senior B.C. Conservatives, James Moore will no doubt consolidate his standing within the caucus, after romping to an easy re-election – made easier when the NDP and Liberals struggled to even find candidates to run against him.
- Vancouver East - NDP – Would now be considered amongst the safest NDP seats in the country, a riding the Conservatives consistently perform terribly in for demographic reasons, and with now no significant Liberal threat, Deputy Leader Libby Davies will be easily returned for a sixth term.
- Nanaimo – Cowichan - NDP – Jean Crowder is not facing a serious threat from the Conservative candidate in her riding, and very nearly didn't have a Liberal opponent at all.
- Victoria - NDP – An orange bastion like this is unlikely to move against the wave, so Deputy Speaker Denise Savoie will likely return to Ottawa, and suddenly becomes a top contender for the Speaker's chair.
Cathy McLeod has been appointed in Parliamentary Secretary in early 2011. Therefor she can’t have been appointed before a budget defeat because there have been no budget defeat in 2011. The budget has not even be debated. The government felt on a motion of non-confidence following the Government being found in contempt.
To set the record straight.
Good catch, Hub. I’ve corrected it. Thank you.
The NDP are running hard in Vancouver-South and have a very credible candidate who has earned a ton of profile in the Asian media; fluently multi-lingual Meena Wong I believe is taking votes away from both Dosanjh AND CPC’s Wai Young.
The interesting question is whether Wong is taking more support away from Young than Dosanjh. This is going to be a very interesting race.
Wai Young’s close finish in the 2008 election probably had a lot more to do with Dion than anything. The finish certainly surprised the local campaign team. I’m not convinced the poor showing by Liberals/Ignatieff this time around will hurt Dosanjh quite as under Dion. He is a veteran, has plenty of local endorsements and profile unlike Young. If Harper’s support is being eaten into by NDP (which seems to be happening here in Vancouver), a Young win is only possible if the NDP-Lib split makes it so.
PS: Calling Dosanjh a floor crosser is wholly inaccurate, much like calling Bob Rae a floor crosser is. Neither were a member of a legislature or parliament when they became members of the Liberal party. Yes, among the very hard core NDP some hold resentment but just as many see the moves rationally. Among the general electorate and particularly with swing voters the former party affiliations of either candidate will rarely have any bearing on how they swing their vote.
Thanks for the very interesting run-down on Vancouver South, Mike.
I agree that “floor-crosser” is not accurate, and I looked at it.
I wish we had a one-word equivalent of “person who was strongly identified with one party, then switched allegiances and was democratically elected under another party’s banner”.
In french they call that “transfuge”. I have a funny feeling we’re going to need an english word like that in a lot of cases very soon.
cheers
Also, you’ll note that I didn’t ascribe it any significance in voter motivations, only in terms of the party cadres deciding how hard to run in a certain riding. So your point is spot on.
I like the word choice “Strong contested races”. Other lists talk about toss ups, which implies odds.
I prefer this approach of looking at candidate strength and where parties are putting their resources.
For instance, there is no doubt that the NDP is fighting very, very hard in Kamloops – Thompson – Cariboo.
Obviously they see something there. Perhaps in their pre-election internal polling (I got their robo call) something turned up.
But I just don’t see it.
Cathy McLeod is looked at very favourably, has worked well with town councils, and has brought home the bacon.
And she doesn’t inspire the visceral hatred of Betty Hinton who won easily while being only slightly more respected than Cheryl Gallant.
I guess we’ll see what happens monday eh ?
Shadow, will the first nations in the riding turn out to vote this time. I seem to recollect there was not much turnout there last time. Would be a plus for Crawford, for sure.
If there is no English one-word equivalent of “person who was strongly identified with one party, then switched allegiances and was democratically elected under another party’s banner,” why not enrich the English language by adding the noun version (if there is such a thing) for the word “transfuge”?
Any website that has North Van going Liberal from Conservative is just completely off-the-mark and shows that applying provincial or country polling falls down when applied at the riding level. Saxton won against the incumbent Don Bell last time, a well-known and personally popular MP on the North Shore (I live in North Van). Now Saxton’s up against an unknown in a province where the Liberal party of Canada is virtually irrelevant (they polled 4th in an increasing # of ridings last election). I would say the chance that this seat goes Liberal is about 1 in a 100.
Good point, Chuck. And if I thought there was a way to do so without hauling out that long definition every time to let readers know what that new word meant, I’d be right on that. Will take some more thought, but I’m all ears if you have any suggestions, believe me!
Peter, I agree. But, note that I said the websites were touting him as the best way to beat Saxton, not that he had already done it. I haven’t checked their ratings on that riding in awhile, but the federal Liberal Party’s between-election polling results in BC are best likened to a parking lot, so I don’t take them seriously until around E-minus-7. Would that accord with your understanding of things out there?
You’re probably right. I suspect that we’ll see the trend of 1st/2nd being either Con/NDP moving into the ‘burbs more this time as well with more ridings dropping the Libs to 3rd or 4th (North Van, West Van being exceptions). I think some of the either not-paying-attention-yet or unlikely-to-vote folks actually get confused with the provincial BC Lib party too so that skews the polls.
On the Nanaimo-Alberni front…. worth noting Ms. Maartman is tweeting that another bus from Port Alberni is being added to handle requests to go see Mr. Layton in Comox tonight.
Port Alberni is the “left” side of the riding though (both politically and geographically I guess)… it would be much more interesting if that kind of demand was coming from the North Nanaimo blue stronghold.
you are correct to take the Greens poll with a healthy pinch of salt. It is over a week old, small sample etc. and it’s value to the May campaign in turning the ‘anything but harper’ vote Green is just too topical.
SGI will be determined by who runs the most effective GOTV, and I can tell you from personal experience that the Greens do not begin to have a clue about how to get the vote out. On the other hand is Gary Lunn, who more than did his share in bringing in the second highest (I believe) voter turnout in Canada in 2008….
Still, the GPC has spent close to $1million over the past year plus on the SGI Campaign, lmao.
Alice, this could make an interesting footnote in future analysis of the impact that money has, (or doesn’t have) on electoral outcomes.
Thanks for the local intel, Chris. Port Alberni is a labour town, but one that saw a lot of NDP-Reform switching in 1993 as well. Now, I believe I read that Lunney was running into headwinds in the Qualicum Beach area as well, which is a whole other kettle of fish for him. Isn’t Maartman from Parksville area? Anyways, that riding will be particularly interesting for me to watch, for sure.
I know that the terms I’m suggesting are not exactly positive, but “turncoat” and “renegade” come to mind. Another term would be “convert” as Saul who, according to the Book of Acts was bent on persecuting followers of Jesus and, “on the road to Damascus”, was converted to Paul, probably the most effective missionary in his day.
I would put Chilliwack Fraser Canyon in the outside chance category. The NDP candidate is stronger than usual (had a good showing 33%? provincially for the NDP in 2009, largely on the strength of the NDP’s anti-carbon tax plank), the Liberal is no pushover, and the nepotism factor was well publicized and likely cost Strahl a couple votes. What keeps this a reliable CPC riding is the “bible belt” factor, but gay marriage is not on the ballot this election and weird things can happen in non-incumbent BC races.
Port Alberni votes heavily NDP except for a 2-3 polls that do the opposite. Maartman is from the Nanaimo part of the riding. Parksville/Qualicum are the parts where there has been a moderate swing in recent times federally. These are retirement communities with lots of emigrees from Alberta. The cost of living has been rising in these communities due to the influx of retirees. Provincially, North Nanaimo switched for NDPer Leonard Krog. He is a former MLA for the Qualicum-Coombs and high profile (former minister, leadership contender). Zeni doesn’t have that profile. Word on the ground is that this will be a close race but Maartman is the underdog.
Pundit, put up one blog post that defines the word “transfuge”, and then provide a link to it the first time you have to use the word in any future post. That way, people who need it can learn the definition but you don’t have to waste time re-explaining it every time.
Thanks for the shout-out! It’s been a long campaign, but we’ve had more donations and more volunteers than any Liberal campaign here in years and the response to our candidate, who is very well known in the Comox Valley has been great.
Where we’ll take votes from is anyone’s guess. We have former NDPers and CPCers telling is they’re voting for Mike (Holland). We’ll take voters wherever we can get them, of course.
How it will all shake out is hard to say but I’ll go out in a limb and make two predictions: the Liberal vote will grow strongly from 2008, and the riding will have a new MP to be after May 2nd.
Two comments on the language front: I think “transplant” will serve your purpose fairly well. And, while I don’t have a big problem with party switching per se (it depends on the reason) it’s fair to differentiate between those like David Emerson who cross between fed parties (or prov parties) and those like Dossanjh who change parties when moving from Fed to Prov or vice versa. This is especially true in provinces like BC & QC where the prov system is effectively two-party; less so in Ontario where the prov set-up is* a near-mirror of the fed one. (*Next week, I may have to change that to “was”.)
Diehard New Democrats consider Bob Rae and Dosanjh traitors. I knew them both before they were elected to anything. One was my University professor and the other a colleague in the legal business. I liked them both and have campaigned for them both. Rae even stayed at our house. Former leaders are a different species than transfuges. These 2 are cowards hiding in ridings where the NDP has little support. They spew venom at the NDP and it is strange that the Libs have not figured out they cost them buckets full of votes. I want one to be Liberal leader! I would only vote Conservative in 2 ridings and I would do it with a clear conscience.
“In French they call that “transfuge.” “Defector?” Less negative than “turncoat” or “deserter.”
Alice, what floor did Ujal Dosanjh cross exactly?
As a 4 term MP for BC Southern Interior, I wouldn’t count the Conservatives out yet. The NDP incumbent has done very little for the riding, voting against funding for major employer Celgar and in favour of keeping the much hated long gun registry. If people vote emotionally, the NDP might get back in, but if they look close and choose someone who will work for constituents, the NDP will lose 8 months before his MP pension is vested.
Abbotsford is missing from your rundown. Solidly in the Conservative column, I would expect.
Jeff, see the discussion higher up in the comments. Basically, I was stuck for a single-word description in the middle of the night. Some commenters suggested “transplant” which captures it better. I’ll use that next time.
Welcome, Mr. Gouk. We try to keep it as spin-free as possible here, but your views are appreciated.
Scott, clean your glasses. Abbotsford is under seats I don’t expect to change hands.
Oops. Right where I expected it to be.
Not your fault, I was working east to west within the province, and you were expecting to find things alphabetically I bet.
I have to respond to Mr. Gouk regarding this commentary:
“…but if they look close and choose someone who will work for constituents, the NDP will lose 8 months before his MP pension is vestedf.”
Sir, that is very nasty and vinditive, and unfitting commentary from someone claiming to “serve” the public. Spin free or not. that doesn’t mean these pages shouldn’t allow some kind of rebuke to such a nasty diatribe.
Regarding BC, I personally am looking for some NDP gains overall. Maybe 2 to 3 sets. For sure, Esquimalt will go NDP election night. Having served in the Navy for years, and knowing that area, I am certain of that.
Art Cramer count me unmoved by your sympathy. If I had my way we’d replace ALL MPs before their gold plated pension plans kicked in.
I’m not sure if you caught it but Project Democracy did a riding poll for EJF and its a two way race between the NDP and CPC with the CPC holding the lead.
Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca (BC)
Randall C. Garrison as the NDP candidate 34.6
Lillian Szpak as the Liberal candidate 15.4
Troy DeSouza as the Conservative candidate 40.4
Shaunna Salsman of the Green Party Candidate 9.6
Shadow:
I wasn’t commenting on the pensions one way or the other. I can tell you though, that it upsets me the pensions these MPs get when these same MPs are against doing anything to improve the CPP and OAS payouts. There has been study after study explaining how these pension amounts can be doubled while still being paid for. However, despite this, these same politicians are happy for the overly generous public pension, while denying similar comfort in old age to people who contirbute to society, and have a right to expect comfort and security in the retired years.
However, to me the issue is the guy’s comments. He is clearly partisan, and has no issue with preventing someone with whom he disagrees from getting the same pension he has. What makes it even harder to swallow is that this Mr. Gouk would clearly be happy if his political ally were able to collect the same kind of pension. The hypocricy is breath taking, and is what led to my comment.
This Mr. Gouk should be ashamed of himself.
Arthur Cramer, Winnipeg
Come on everyone. We’ve all been around this time in a campaign before. Everyone’s nerves are a bit raw. Let’s just stop now, and step back please.
Our country is about to go through a big exercise in democracy with all hands on deck. This is a great and marvellous thing. Our disagreements are a gift, and we should relish our right to have them peacefully.
Alice, that is a good comment. I actually tried to avoid this, hence comments on BC, which is what I thought this thread was about. It was just tough to listen to someone whom I had never of saying the things he did.
Arthur Cramer
Art as a reform MP Mr. Gouk would have supported the abolition of MP’s pensions, so don’t be so quick to accuse him of hypocrisy or suggest he supports them for his political allies.
I have a suspicion that MPs, public sector employees, and CBC employees (if they’re still around) will be seeing their pension plans shifted from a defined benefit to a defined contribution.