Pundits' Guide

[Welcome, National Newswatch readers!]

As if to underscore the bittersweet nature of the day, with former chief federal Liberal fundraiser Rocco Rossi announcing a provincial run for the opposition Progressive Conservatives in Toronto, Liberal Party fundraising is down from last year's dramatic highs under Rossi's tenure, but has nevertheless made significant strides over the difficult years of 2007-08 under former leader Stéphane Dion.

The party reported its best fourth quarter since the December 2006 leadership convention, at $2.19M from 20,177 donors. That's up modestly from last year's $1.91M and 18,777 donors, but makes for an annual take well-down from the highs of 2009, which also saw a leadership convention in late spring. Indeed it seems that the party's leadership conventions are always associated with its best fundraising periods lately, perhaps more so than elections. Its annual take in 2010 added up to $6.60M, down from $9.56M in 2009, though up from $5.9M in 2008.

More importantly for the Liberals' long-term prospects, however, their number of small donors is growing: 17,419 in Q4-2010 as compared with 16,481 in Q4-2010 and 14,701 in Q4-2008. Their large donor count is up from last year (2,610 vs. 2,167), however the average donation size of their large donors fell $20 from roughly $480 to $460.

The Conservative Party has managed to very nearly match its 2009 tally, raising $17.42M over the four quarters, as compared with last year's $17.71M, of which $5.23M came in the fourth quarter, which is in the middle of that party's Q4 range. Fundraising is up in both the small donor and large donor categories, as compared with 2009, though neither matched the party's record election year totals from 2008.

The party's number of donors may also be reversing a bit of a downward trend from previous peaks, as they reported 41,769 contributors in the fourth quarter, down from many earlier fourth quarters, although up somewhat from last year's 40,004.

Of course the governing Conservative party still out-fundraised its nearest competitor the opposition Liberals by a factor of 2.4-to-1 over the quarter, and 2.6-to-1 over the year.

The NDP did manage to narrowly beat its own best ever non-election year totals, both in the annual total of $4.36M (up from $4.04M the previous year), and in its fourth quarter fundraising alone ($1.66M, up slightly from $1.65M). The party has stayed competitive with its rivals the Liberals in the small donor category all year, but has not been able to break into the larger donation category to the same extent … save of course for the extraordinary one-time bequest of $210K from a long-time party supporter in Q3 (although even without that one donation, its annual totals would still have narrowly represented a non-election year high).

The Bloc Québécois also produced a record non-election year result, at $643K for the year, and $348K for the fourth quarter — the best final quarter for the BQ since the election year of 2005-06.

The Green Party is also making steady progress, raising a total of $1.29M for the year, based on a remarkably strong non-election fourth quarter for them at $537K. There was a bit of a year-over-year weakening in their number of small donors in Q4, however, down from 4,239 to 3,789, although that number is still higher than at pre-election levels in 2006-07.

More analysis of donations by size and week to come in a subsequent post.

Tags: Party Finance