Pundits' Guide

Let's catch up with a round-up of some by-election and vacant riding news:

• The Pirate Party's first ever candidate, Jeff Coleman in Winnipeg North, has been getting a fair bit of coverage across the country, and I also saw a story on him on the CBC Winnipeg news tonight (skip ahead to 4:20).  Même en français.
• Jeffrey Simpson assesses the potential impact of the crime issue in Winnipeg North without even once mentioning Conservative candidate Julie Javier's name.
• In addition to the NDP's by-election website, the Liberals now have one as well, as does the Green Party.  The Conservatives link to their three candidates' websites from their main page.
• Liberal candidate Kevin Lamoureux has bought the back cover of the Times in Winnipeg, showing part of the Liberal Party's messaging for the by-elections.  It says that he will be "part of the Liberal team" that will "take back government" and "put the concerns of ordinary canadians back on the agenda".  The party's by-election website also talks about "sending Stephen Harper a message on November 29", which seems to be the other argument for voting Liberal.
• We're learning a little more about the new candidates in Dauphin — Swan River — Marquette, MB from the Central Plains Herald-Leader. Liberal candidate C. Scott Sarna is apparently officially confirmed now, but I'm still waiting on his exact nomination date in order to enter him into the database. He is from Erickson in the south east part of the riding, while NDP candidate Denise Harder lives a bit further southeast in Portage La Prairie. Green Party candidate Kate Story is from Grandview, still in the south but just east of Roblin. Conservative candidate Robert Sopuck is also based in the south, near Sandy Bay Sandy Lake (my apologies).
• Much ado about Trudeau in Vaughan. What Silver said. Where they went.
• Still in Vaughan, there were competing crowd counts for the Ignatieff-Genco rally on Thursday night.  Vaughan Today: 250. Liberal.ca: 1,200. Young Liberal Joseph Uranowski on Twitter: >800. The Supreme Banquet Hall apparently rates the room for 500-600, depending how it's set up.  Here's one photo, and here are some taken by young Mr. Uranowski.
• As with Winnipeg North, crime and public safety is being raised as an issue in Vaughan, according to this piece in YorkRegion.com.
• As for the now-vacant seat of Haute Gaspésie — La Mitis — Matane — Matapédia, QC, Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff got about 50 people out to his daytime Open-Micro event in Sainte-Anne-des-Monts this past Monday, according to Le Riverain, while 300 came to see Bloc Québécois leader Gilles Duceppe Thursday evening in Matane, his third visit to the town this year.  More from RadCan on Ignatieff's and Duceppe's visits.
• The NDP is continuing to press the Prime Minister to call an early by-election in Prince George — Peace River, BC, while six candidates are contesting the Conservative nomination race, and I'm hearing that there may be a fresh young more conservative face yet to enter the field.
• Once former Environment Minister Jim Prentice relinquishes his seat as the MP for Calgary Centre North, AB, which he undertook to do by the end of 2010, there could be another by-election to call, if a general election doesn't occur first.  Of course, lots of people want to run for the Conservative nomination there, but although Prentice's own vote totals may have masked this fact a lot, the riding is perhaps the most competitive in Calgary (especially the part in the old riding of Calgary Centre where then-PC leader Joe Clark knocked off Reform Party incumbent Eric Lowther in 2000).  Daveberta runs down the early contenders, and traces some of the fault-lines that might be opened up and the federal-provincial switches that could be triggered as a result. The Green Party recently replaced candidate Eric Donovan with Heather MacIntosh, who won a 3-way contested nomination on October 26.

In his column, Jeffrey Simpson cited 40% as the proportion of the federal riding of Winnipeg North accounted for by Kevin Lamoureux's former provincial constituency of Inkster.  I earlier pulled out the provincial maps from Elections Manitoba and compared them with the federal map from Elections Canada, and there are in fact 6 provincial constituencies all or in part within federal Winnipeg North:

• Inkster, Mr. Lamoureux's former seat, in which the previous Liberal candidate Roldan Sevillano, Jr. would now like to run (all)
• The Maples, represented by Mohinder Saran of the NDP, but which also has some provincial Liberal history (most)
• Wellington, represented by Filipina NDP MLA Flor Marcelino (small part)
• Burrows, represented by the Rev. Doug Martindale of the NDP (all)
• Point Douglas, represented by NDP aboriginal MLA and Speaker of the Legislature, George Hickes (half), and
• St. John's, Judy Wasylycia-Leis' former provincial seat, currently held by the NDP's minister of family services and housing, Gord Mackintosh (part)

I haven't tallied the federal riding's electors by provincial riding, but will see if I can do that for us to see.  It looks like 40% by area, but I'm told it's not by population, hence the need for calculations. Another assertion was made, and then disputed, that Judy WL did not do well in the northern parts of Winnipeg in last week's mayoralty race, another data point we should be able to fact-check.

While we're at it, the provincial constituencies within Dauphin – SRM are:

• Swan River, represented by the NDP's finance minister and deputy premier Rosann Wowchuk (nearly all)
• Dauphin-Roblin, represented by the NDP's agriculture minister Stan Struthers (all)
• Russell, represented by the PC's Len Derkach, a former minister of education (all)
• Ste. Rose, represented by Stu Briese for the PCs (all)
• Minnedosa, represented by Leanne Rowat for the PCs (small part)

Meanwhile, a volunteer map-maker sent along two maps to share with Pundits' Guide readers of the results of the last provincial election transposed onto the current federal riding boundaries. Thanks to "krago" for this wonderful contribution:

[Click on images to open full versions]

2007 provincial poll-by-poll results transferred onto 2010 federal boundaries: Winnipeg North

2007 provincial poll-by-poll results transferred onto 2010 federal boundaries: D-SR-M

For those from different parts of the country, who may not realize, in Ontario the federal and provincial boundaries are if not identical certainly very close.  Thus I'm assuming that federal Vaughan and provincial Vaughan are synonymous, although I haven't verified that personally.

To close out, here are tonight's Facebook Counts:

Vaughan – Facebook Count

Tally at 3:40 AM — Fantino – 343, Genco – 309, Bordian – 164, Rodriguez-Larrain – 100
Nov 4 at 1:40 AM — Fantino – 305, Genco – 260, Bordian – 85

Winnipeg North – Facebook Count

Tally at 3:40 AM — Chief – 1,141, Lamoureux – 504, Javier – 96
Nov 4 at 1:40 AM — Chief – 1,118, Lamoureux – 434, Javier – 66

Dauphin – SW-M – Facebook Count

Tally at 3:40 AM — Sopuck – 90, Storey – 50
Nov 4 at 1:40 AM — Sopuck – 55

Tags: Calgary Centre North, Dauphin-Swan River-Marquette, Haute-Gaspésie-La Mitis-Matane-Matapédia, Nov 29 2010 By-elections, Prince George-Peace River, Retiring Incumbents, Vacant Seats, Vaughan, Winnipeg North