Fourth Byelection Likely This Fall
[Welcome National Newswatch readers!]
Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff will be able to test his new approach and the majoritarian reach of his "big red tent" in up to four different by-election ridings this fall, but there could be one less vote for the long-gun registry on September 22. Here's why.
Bloc Québécois Leader Gilles Duceppe has been patiently waiting for his largely absent M.P. from Haute-Gaspésie – La Mitis – Matane – Matapédia, QC, Jean-Yves Roy, to step down, in light of Roy's announcement last year that he wouldn't run in the next election, and the subsequent nomination of economics professor Jean-François Fortin to replace him as their local candidate. And indeed Roy indicated earlier this spring that his health might not allow him to complete his term.
However, with summer drawing to a close, a by-election window about to close, and being pressed yet again on the question during a recent visit to Rimouski, Duceppe has taken the virtually unprecedented step of publicly calling on his own M.P. to make a decision on his future soon, or else start fulfilling his duties as an M.P. "with rigour and professionalism", according to a Radio-Canada story from yesterday that has yet to be picked up by the english-language media. [Indeed, it only showed up in my own Google Alert two hours ago.]
The issue did not escape the notice of the Prime Minister's Communications Director, Dimitri Soudas, however, who tweeted the story out yesterday, saying that "Les gens de Haute-Gaspésie-La Mitis-Matane-Matapédia méritent mieux qu'un député qui parle à son chef par voie de communiqué !" (basically, the people of the riding deserve better than an M.P. who talks to his own leader via a news release). The Conservatives may have recently approached the prefect of Haute-Gaspésie to run for them, and he was seen in the company of Senator Pierre-Hugues Boisvenu in Ste-Anne-des-Monts several days ago, according to blogger "LeCartable".
But the party with the most to prove in any upcoming by-election in that riding is the Liberals, who surprisingly came within 616 votes of winning it in 2008, due partly perhaps to Roy's low profile, but also largely to the popularity of their local candidate Nancy Charest. Charest was renominated early, but made national news for some injudicious remarks about leader Michael Ignatieff at a fall cocktail party fundraiser last year also attended by her mentor, the by-then-resigned Québec lieutenant Denis Coderre. Charest subsequently clarified the remarks, but left no doubt as to her personal support for Coderre either, and according to one Twitter source, Coderre is visiting the riding again on September 13 himself.
Certainly Soudas' interest in the seat is quite clear on two fronts:
- In the first place, Roy voted against Bill C-391 at second reading last fall, and a resignation the week of September 13 subtracts one more vote from the forces who support the motion to not further proceed with the bill. The September 13 date is key, because Conservative M.P. Inky Mark has already indicated his intention to resign on September 15, and Duceppe presumably wants the chance to run his young new star candidate in a by-election, rather than contend with graver questions about his incumbent MP's attendance in a general election. As we've pointed out before, the clock is running out on a fall by-election call for Winnipeg North, and thus the window to include Roy's riding in the set of by-elections is short. And Duceppe has clearly been making Fortin's candidacy one of his top travel priorities over the past year and a half.
- But in the second place, the Conservatives might believe they could improve on their standing there, as it's two seats over from Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, QC which they snatched away from the Bloc in a surprise upset during last fall's by-elections. More than one commenter pointed to weaker support for the long-gun registry in that riding as being one factor in the Conservative victory there, although their financial investment in upgrading the highway, along with a strong local candidate with municipal experience, are more often credited for the win.
So, the four by-election ridings (with an Election Day likely some time between November 1 and December 6, but I would guess most probably on Monday, November 8) are likely to be:
- Haute-Gaspésie – La Mitis – Matane – Matapédia, QC – a rural Québec riding, currently held by a Bloc M.P. who is being called on by his leader to do his job or step down soon, and who won by a margin of less than 2% over the Liberals in 2008, but where the Conservatives placed second in 2006 with nearly 30% of the vote.
- Vaughan, ON – a suburban seat north of Toronto being vacated by a long-standing Liberal M.P., but with a medium-term history of sending conservative and independent M.P.s to Ottawa (I'm thinking Tony Roman in the 1980s), and where the just-retired OPP Commissioner Julian Fantino is being heavily courted to run for the Conservatives in a seat where the Liberals have yet to organize a nomination meeting to replace retiring M.P. Maurizio Bevilacqua.
- Winnipeg North, MB – a core urban seat in western Canada, with typically the strongest or second-strongest NDP vote share in its caucus, where the party is running a first nations candidate, the Conservatives are running the same candidate who took them into second place last time, and the Liberals are running a popular area MLA in a bid to regain their standing there, and
- Dauphin – Swan River – Marquette, MB – a rural seat in Manitoba, the popularity of whose departing but independent-minded Conservative M.P. might obscure the contours of the forthcoming contest, although the Conservatives would have to be considered the strong frontrunners and are the only major party to have their candidate in place.
Two urban, two rural. Two central canadian, two western canadian. One french, three english. One Bloc, one Liberal, one NDP, one Conservative.
Four seats, one big experiment. Let's see how it plays out.
The haute gaspe riding situation is very interesting and its tough to say what the mp will do .
but it looks increasingly likely that we will see several by-elections in the coming future . in 3 or 4 ridings all very unique and not at all the same . i do find it odd the opposition has not found any candidates for dauphin swan river , well its a tory riding , its still hard to believe the riding associaitons there are so slow . it also be interesting to see who runs in vaughan as the former conservative candidate is also running in municipal vote. if julian fantino runs he could win it i suspect but at his age he’d likely only stay one term.
Thanks for the background on the Vaughan Conservative candidate from 2008, RCO. I did see a tweet from a member of the Conservative EDA there, saying they would love to have Mr. Fantino run for them.
The 08 candidate Richard Lorello who improved the conservative vote in the riding is running for york regional council and i noticed is using the same website / address as from 2008 election and still has some pictures from it up. well i see nothing wrong with the whole thing he’s just making use of the website and likely still owned the rights to his name.
I’d be very surprised if the Conservatives had more than a snowball’s chance in hell in Haute Gaspesie. Their vote in this riding dropped from 29% in 2006 to 18% in 2008. After 2008, I don’t think the voters in this riding would be very impressed with Conservative’s position that they voted for separatist traitors who shouldn’t be allowed to have any influence in a coalition government.
The two MB ridings are hardly a grand experiment. These are two of the most lop-sided races in the country.
Charest’s been working real hard, and should win – comments about Iggy notwithstanding. If anything her comments will solidify her standing with soft nationalists.
Mike, parties can experiment with messages and issues during by-elections, so there are a number of meanings behind that word.
Still, the Liberals believe they can make a good showing against the historically strong NDP in Winnipeg North, while as has been pointed out before, it’s hard to know the exact shape of the contest in Dauphin going forward, in the absence of the very popular but quite independent-minded conservative M.P. Inky Mark. Hence the experiment for us as observers as well.
I’m less of the inclination that past performance always predicts future outcomes in open seats, at this website. But in any event, even a party’s change in position in a set of by-elections can be significant for the perception of its future prospects, and what issues will work for them strategically in different parts of the country.
Thanks for reading, and for taking the time to comment.
Well, I’m really looking forward to following that race for sure. Thanks for the comment, Acer.
Haute-Gaspésie – La Mitis – Matane – Matapédia certainly looks rural, with no centre larger than Matane’s 14,742 people. Yet, when you add the eight small urban areas within Stats Can’s definition (that’s the definition that says 80% of Canadians live in urban areas), the riding is 51% urban.
Dauphin – Swan River – Marquette, however, with no centre larger than Dauphin’s 7,906, is indeed 73% rural. Rosann Wowchuk, Manitoba’s Deputy Premier and MLA for Swan River, is from a farm family. Is Swan River the last of the old rural socialist strongholds? No, the provincial CCF never won Swan River; even in 1969 the NDP did not. Only in 1986 did Len Harapiak (Rosann’s brother) finally win it.
I certainly take your points on the urban versus rural designation of certain ridings, Wilf. However, there is a sense in which I think we might characterize its attitudinal profile as more rural than urban. Certainly they are far from a large metropolitan urban centre, and do not have a very high population density. I bet its polls were enumerated and voted according to an alphabetical rural method rather than a street-based urban method before the voters lists were digitized too.
Wow. My first time seeing Pundits’ Guide and I like it. This article is a real eye opener. Thank you and I’ll be back for more. I get so sick and tired of the MSM and their bias attitudes.
Thanks for the very nice comment, Norm. I never made it as far north as Armstrong on that highway (furthest I got was Vernon), but I do know that you’re in the beautiful riding of Okanagan – Shuswap, BC. Did you happen to get down to Vernon during the Liberal Express to observe the goings-on? Anyways, we always love to receive reports from the field. Readers are obviously active partisans, but we try not to get too chippy here, but rather just observe the practice of the art, science and alchemy of politics as practiced across the spectrum and the country.
Cheers, and thanks for reading.
Hey, I saw the Liberal Express bas drive through St. Peters, NS on the last day of the tour. Does that count?
MPs and local/regional political junkies could tell you which ridings are “rural”.
While that is an impressionistic assesment, I wouldnt be surprised if it corresponds with the StatsCan percentages.
Because of the size of ridings and the way boundaries are drawn, only northern ridings are going to even approach 50% rural.
But when it comes down to it, small towns are in practive “rural” when it comes to politics. Urban places to StatsCan, but rural when it comes to those [rough] divisions we talk about in politics.
I live in Kings-Hants. The provincial riding I live in is probably well over 50% rural. But on the whole, like elesewhere, Kings-Hants has a lot of towns that count as urban. So without a one of them reaching 10,000 I’m guessing our urban population is pretty far up there.
But I wouldnt be surprised that if the ridings were ranked according to percentage of rural population, that we could draw a line that we call the rural/urban line according to the StatsCan numbers… and wouldnt have many obvious outliers on the ‘wrong’ side of that line.
But then of course you get into things like Saskatchewan: where maybe every riding that includes part of Regina is still by the common sense assessments we use, has the politics of a rural riding.
However much a part of Sackville-Eastern Shore is [statistically] urban, the riding is rural. In part because, even in Halifax let alone in Sackville, the residents are little if any removed from very active family life in the rural parts…. even the people who have moved there from outside the region.
While that phenomena of urban people only a generation removed from rural is not going to show up directly in the rural/urban numbers… I wouldnt be surprised if there is a correspondence anyway.
This will be an interesting foursome of elections. The Libs do have a chance in Winnipeg North as their candidate is likely to get all of the Phillipine vote and East Indian vote.
The NDP sent all of their East-Indian vote packing when they pulled the plug on an Indo-candidate in their nomination meeting and appointed marginal dipper Kevin Chief. JWL had all that vote consistently and since 04 had much of the Phillipine vote move her way also.
Pretending this is 2004, Kevin Lamoureux is far more likely to restore that year’s coalition than political newcomer Kevin Chief.
If nothing significant changes Ignatieff will be able to crack champagne in late November
Welcome, Sophia. I’m curious about your source for the comments about the NDP “pull[ing] the plug on an Indo-candidate in their nomination meeting and appoint[ing] Kevin Chief”. I show Chief as acclaimed at an uncontested nomination meeting on May 31, according to the Elections Canada website, and there’s a video of that meeting kicking around somewhere too. Is there something we missed about that meeting?
Over 1000 memberships sold, insuring Chief would never win. Layton stepped in to solve the “problem”.
Every action has a reaction in this biz.
Sophia Fernandez do you have any objective reporting or something you can link to so you can back up what you are saying ?
To be honest it sounds as if you’re perpetuating crude racial wedge politics in support of the Liberal candidate.
Usually comments around here are analytical in nature, provide additional information, or ask relevant questions.
Overt partisan cheer leading and unfounded rumour mongering are discouraged. Of course, i’ll stand corrected if you can back up what you are saying in any way.
Why don’t you call JWL’s campaign and ask her if there were any serious Indo candidates that were seeking that nomination? It would be a waste of her time to lie as it would be an easy one to expose, so the next best action by her would be -no answer-
The two Manitoba ridings are clearly strongholds. Maybe that Lamoureux will finish second, but his chances of winning this seat are very slim especially with the lack of a provincial Liberal «machine».
For Vaughan, it is very difficult to see how many of the vote was more for Mauricio than for the Liberal Party. In this «traditionally» Italo-Canadian riding, Fantino could probably have a number of votes due to his background, especially with an incumbent retiring and a relatively strong Conservative swing in the last election.
For the Eastern Québec riding, I must say that Charest comes close of winning it last time due to the fact that she always had a very strong personnel (she was an MNA between 2003 and 2007) vote in Matane in both the 2003 and 2007 provincial election in the traditionally nationalist riding of Matane and this was a awfully big surprise to the Bloc who never saw it coming. However, if you look closely you see a relatively big divide between Matane (Charest’s base), the eastern parts of the riding which are not very Bloquiste, Mont-Joli (Nationalist stronghold like Rimouski) and Amqui (divided).
As a fact, however, especially in more rural ridings in Eastern Quebec, we see that the federalist vote had a tendency to go to one side against the Bloc especially with a retiring MP who was not very popular. Also, like you are saying, the gun registry is also a big issue here as there are a lot of hunters and fishers almost everywhere in this riding as a «way of life» just like in Northern Ontario.
For the urban/rural divide, let’s say that two of the ridings are VERY rural areas, one is of the inner city-type and the other one is extremely suburban, so this makes a good mix.
Thanks for the local background on the Haute-Gaspésie seat, Matvail. As to the Vaughan one, the Conservatives might be reasoning that a quick call is their best chance to take the seat if the Liberals have no candidate at present.
Sophie, I have to agree with Shadow, in that you have not named a name or provided a news clipping, and just seem to be trying to plant a rumour here. Regular readers don’t usually go for that kind of thing, as we try to keep this site as spin-free as possible for a political blog. I wish you luck in your campaigning, and please get back to us if you have some news to pass along.
matvail2002 you raise a fascinating point about the gun registry and its impact on the Quebec by-election.
Do you know if Nancy Charest is in favour of it ?
(If she wasn’t last election, she is now given that Ignatieff is whipping the issue.)
Perhaps the local CPC candidate will make the gun registry a big issue and use it as a wedge against both the Liberals and the BQ.
http://www.radio-canada.ca/regions/est-quebec/2010/09/03/005-duceppe-nullites.shtml
Interesting that Duceppe focuses on attacking the Tories on natural resources, and who today is the new Liberal critic for that portfolio? Expect to see Coderre out campaigning hard for Charest in a by-election drive.
@Shadow:
I actually don’t know about Charest position in this matter.
However, for Vaughan, one can see in the last election some interesting patterns:
-Generally, the southern Woodbridge and Maple area are Liberal.
-The northern part of the riding (which have a lower density of population) such as Kleinburg are relatively Conservative.
Mr. Pundits Guide, lots of back channel chatter right now. Surprised you are not writing about it.
Hi Cynthia,
I’m tweeting a bit about it ( @punditsguide), but unfortunately time is short for me at present: in part due to the New Brunswick provincial site I decided to assemble, and readying our house for a big renovation scheduled to start Wednesday.
After a bit of sleep, I should be back in full swing soon.
Perhaps you could fill us in on some of it!
signed,
(Ms.) Pundits’ Guide :-)
Madame Pundit’s Guide
Look for that change that I forecasted earlier in the summer. I’ll make sure to break the news here first.
You mean that Ray Larkin will step down as the Conservative candidate here, in favour of someone else?