2009 By-Election Poll-by-Poll Results: MIKR
Tonight we continue our series showing the poll-by-poll maps for the next of the four by-election ridings from last November, Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, QC (aka "MIKR"), along with a table showing the changes in percent of the valid ballots by party (% Vote), percent of the eligible electors by party (% Elec), and number of polls won+tied (Won+Tied).
Since neither the NDP, Green Party nor Christian Heritage Party have regularly cracked 5% in this riding, its story is the changing nature of the two-way race, from a Bloc-Liberal contest in 2000, to a Bloc seat with two opponents of roughly equal strength in 2004, to a Bloc-Conservative race in 2008, and as we all know, a Conservative upset in the by-election.
Since falling behind the Conservatives, the Liberals were only able to win mobile polls in 2006 (6 won + 1 tied) and 2008 (7 won + 1 tied), winning a few geographic polls again in the 2009 by-election (but not their candidate's hometown of Cap-Saint-Ignace) but meantime losing 4 more mobile polls. A mobile poll is taken around to various residential and long-term care facilities for seniors and those who would not otherwise be able to get themselves to a regular polling station, each mobile poll representing one or more residences/locations. From the maps we can see that there are a lot of them in MIKR (but again, remember that for now I just have the use of blue pins, so the colour doesn't tell you who won them just yet).
The maps show that Conservative strength grew from the south part of the riding northwards, from 2004 to the 2009 by-election. The riding adjoins or is closer to other areas of Conservative strength in the south (and indeed the Prime Minister attended an event with Maxime Bernier in Beauce, two ridings over, during the campaign), while the north part adjoins Rimouski and other areas of Bloc strength in the Gaspé peninsula. By 2009, the Conservatives and the Bloc were splitting the polls in Rivière-du-Loup (Bloc candidate Nancy Gagnon's hometown), all but one of which had been won by Paul Crête in 2008. Moreover, they won nearly every poll in their candidate Bernard Généreux's hometown of La Pocatière (also the hometown of former Bloc M.P. Crête), polls that had all been taken by Crête in the general election.
Looking at the raw vote and percent of the electorate for the three parties over time, we can see that Généreux's campaign was able to hold its vote during the by-election, while the Bloc vote dropped by half, and the Liberal vote broke through its earlier low of 2006.
I've added a link to the last map image below, so you can click through to the interactive version. Given the large number of mobile polls being shown, and the less than ideal differentiation between the Bloc and Conservative shades of blue at present, you'll want to be able to zoom in yourself and see what's going on. I'll also be working on making the earlier versions available through the riding profile page as soon as possible, although I need a little programming help finding the bug that's preventing me from doing so now. Sorry about the delay.
Next time: Hochelaga.
Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, QC, 2004 GE, Poll-by-Poll Winners:
Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, QC, 2006 GE, Poll-by-Poll Winners:
Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, QC, 2008 GE, Poll-by-Poll Winners:
Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, QC, 2009 By-election, Poll-by-Poll Winners:
Vote Share, Percent of the Electorate, and Number of Polls Won+Tied, by Party, 2000 Tr - 2009 By, Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, QC
Since neither the NDP, Green Party nor Christian Heritage Party have regularly cracked 5% in this riding, its story is the changing nature of the two-way race, from a Bloc-Liberal contest in 2000, to a Bloc seat with two opponents of roughly equal strength in 2004, to a Bloc-Conservative race in 2008, and as we all know, a Conservative upset in the by-election.
Since falling behind the Conservatives, the Liberals were only able to win mobile polls in 2006 (6 won + 1 tied) and 2008 (7 won + 1 tied), winning a few geographic polls again in the 2009 by-election (but not their candidate's hometown of Cap-Saint-Ignace) but meantime losing 4 more mobile polls. A mobile poll is taken around to various residential and long-term care facilities for seniors and those who would not otherwise be able to get themselves to a regular polling station, each mobile poll representing one or more residences/locations. From the maps we can see that there are a lot of them in MIKR (but again, remember that for now I just have the use of blue pins, so the colour doesn't tell you who won them just yet).
The maps show that Conservative strength grew from the south part of the riding northwards, from 2004 to the 2009 by-election. The riding adjoins or is closer to other areas of Conservative strength in the south (and indeed the Prime Minister attended an event with Maxime Bernier in Beauce, two ridings over, during the campaign), while the north part adjoins Rimouski and other areas of Bloc strength in the Gaspé peninsula. By 2009, the Conservatives and the Bloc were splitting the polls in Rivière-du-Loup (Bloc candidate Nancy Gagnon's hometown), all but one of which had been won by Paul Crête in 2008. Moreover, they won nearly every poll in their candidate Bernard Généreux's hometown of La Pocatière (also the hometown of former Bloc M.P. Crête), polls that had all been taken by Crête in the general election.
Looking at the raw vote and percent of the electorate for the three parties over time, we can see that Généreux's campaign was able to hold its vote during the by-election, while the Bloc vote dropped by half, and the Liberal vote broke through its earlier low of 2006.
I've added a link to the last map image below, so you can click through to the interactive version. Given the large number of mobile polls being shown, and the less than ideal differentiation between the Bloc and Conservative shades of blue at present, you'll want to be able to zoom in yourself and see what's going on. I'll also be working on making the earlier versions available through the riding profile page as soon as possible, although I need a little programming help finding the bug that's preventing me from doing so now. Sorry about the delay.
Next time: Hochelaga.
Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, QC, 2004 GE, Poll-by-Poll Winners:
Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, QC, 2006 GE, Poll-by-Poll Winners:
Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, QC, 2008 GE, Poll-by-Poll Winners:
Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, QC, 2009 By-election, Poll-by-Poll Winners:
Vote Share, Percent of the Electorate, and Number of Polls Won+Tied, by Party, 2000 Tr - 2009 By, Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, QC
| Elec | Lib | NDP | Grn | BQ | Cons | CA | Rest | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 By | % Vote % Elec Won+Tied | 13.2% 4.8% 7+0 | 4.8% 1.8% 0 | 1.7% 0.6% 0 | 37.7% 13.8% 96+4 | 42.7% 15.6% 150+4 | -- -- -- |
| 2008 GE | % Vote % Elec Won+Tied | 15.4% 8.7% 7+1 | 5.5% 3.1% 0 | 2.2% 1.2% -- | 46.0% 26.1% 183+2 | 30.6% 17.4% 62+3 | 0.3% 0.2% 0 |
| 2006 GE | % Vote % Elec Won+Tied | 14.1% 8.2% 6+1 | 4.6% 2.7% 0 | 3.8% 2.3% 0 | 52.4% 30.8% 232+2 | 25.1% 14.7% 15+2 | -- -- -- |
| 2004 GE | % Vote % Elec Won+Tied | 29.6% 16.7% 28+3 | 2.0% 1.1% 0 | 2.2% 1.2% 0 | 57.1% 32.3% 219+3 | 9.1% 5.1% 0 | -- -- -- |
| 2000 Tr | % Vote % Elec Won+Tied | 39.5% 23.0% 87+3 | 1.1% 0.6% 0+1 | -- -- -- | 48.9% 28.5% 147+3 | 3.8% | 6.5% 2.2% | 3.8% 0+1 | 0+1 | 0.2% 0.1% 0+1 |
Labels: Google Maps, Nov 9 2009 By-elections, Poll-by-Poll Results
posted by The Pundits' Guide at
7:27 PM
3 Comments:
well the google maps are really good , i'm finding it extremely hard to see the difference between a bloc quebecois poll and a conservative poll in these maps from quebec . the colour difference is so small its very hard to see the differnce . not sure how that could be improved but a slightly different colour for each might help .
Anon, I've identified that as a problem as well. Will probably try to experiment with a slightly greener blue for the Bloc, more similar to colours they have used in the past. It had been too light to use for text, but might do the trick for the maps.
I hope you'll give me more feedback when I get that change implemented, to let me know if it's distinctive enough.
Thank you so much for taking the time to comment.
think you must of changed the colours cause i was looking at the map for pontiac and could totally tell the difference this time , the new colour works alot better .
i still do find it hard to tell the difference between ndp and liberal polls though especially in ridings with conservative polls for some reason . like i was looking at st catherines and having a hard time telling them apart .
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