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Sunday, January 24, 2010

Two Toronto NDP Nominations Settled

The NDP nominations in two lakefront Liberal-held Toronto ridings were settled one way or the other over the past few days. Both have been Liberal-NDP contests for sometime: in the first case since 1988 (it switched between NDP-PC and NDP-Liberal before that), and in the second case only since 1997 (it was Liberal-Reform in 1993, and Liberal-PC before that).
  • Beaches – East York, ON - The three-term riding president, Matthew Kellway, who works as a staff rep for the Society of Energy Professionals and is a founder and co-chair of the Toronto Energy Coalition, scored a reportedly strong victory this afternoon over street-front lawyer and environmental activist Barbara Warner. Kellway will now join returning Green Party candidate Zoran Markowski, and face six-term Liberal M.P. Maria Minna. Minna has held the riding since 1993, when she defeated three-term NDP M.P. Neil Young, who took over the riding, after a brief period between 1979 and 1980, from NDP M.P. Andrew Brewin (father of mid-1990's Victoria NDP M.P. John Brewin). Although the demographics of the riding have changed, the long NDP history in this riding along with the fact that they hold it provincially as well, have made it a perennial target seat for that party; with such high profile candidates as economist Mel Watkins running in 1997 and 2000, now Ontario MPP and recent provincial leadership candidate Peter Tabuns in 2004, and then former MPP and provincial cabinet minister Marilyn Churley running in both 2006 and 2008. Minna has held them all off, however. A geographer has assembled poll-by-poll maps of this riding across the 2004, 2006 and 2008 federal, and 2007 provincial elections and posted links to them at Babble (see post #25), if you're interested.
  • Parkdale – High Park, ON - Although the meeting is not actually scheduled until this coming Thursday, the deadline for candidates to announce has past, and no-one else has stepped forward to challenge former one-term NDP M.P. Peggy Nash for her party's nomination. So she will be acclaimed Thursday for a rematch with first-time Liberal M.P. (and former Ontario MPP for the same riding) Gerard Kennedy, alongside new Green Party candidate Sarah Newton. In 2006, Nash defeated three-term Liberal M.P. Sarmite ("Sam") Bulte, who had replaced four-term Liberal M.P. Jesse Flis (although Progressive Conservative M.P. Andrew Witer held the riding for a term from 1984-88). In a 2006 provincial by-election held to replace Kennedy on his resignation to run federally, the riding elected an NDP MPP who was returned again in the 2007 provincial general election. Also, as noted by NDP blogger the Jurist, Nash's raw vote total in 2006 (20,790) is still the highest scored by any recent victor in that riding. Thus, that party believes it has enough incentive to continue to target the riding. Nash was also elected Federal Party President at the NDP's August convention in Halifax. The same geographer has also posted poll-by-poll result maps for this riding at Babble (see post #23), by the way, for both the provincial and federal general elections.
Thanks to several readers for getting in touch almost immediately with Sunday's news from the Beaches. If you have nomination news to share, please do get in touch by email. And then follow along on Twitter.

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3 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

both these ridings could in theory elect an ndp mp ( also york south weston and davenport could as well ) , the only problem as they have to beat high profile liberal incumbents and the federal liberal party has a solid grip on Toronto . so the ridings may stay liberal for a while longer even though the ndp potential is there . but i think everyone expects the beaches to return to the ndp once maria minna retires .

January 25, 2010 6:34 AM  
Blogger Edmund said...

It was pretty much the worst-kept secret in the Toronto-area NDP that Peggy was going to go up for a rematch against Gerard.

No-one challenged her for the nomination very likely because it would have been like kissing a freight train. When the chair recognised her at the St. Paul's provincial nomination meeting, *everyone* stood up and applauded. Peggy has some heavyweight support, and I expect a spirited fight to take the seat back.

As the saying goes, "Where's Gerard?"

January 30, 2010 6:40 PM  
Blogger Edmund said...

Anonymous's remarks about high-profile Liberals is very true. However, one has to look at their ages: Rae and Minna are in their early 60s (come to that, so is Iggy), Tonks in his later 60s. I know MPs have been known to soldier on to the grave (Diefenbaker famously never received the Order of Canada as he died in the saddle), but time is ticking by for the Liberal big beasts in Toronto. A cult of personality can carry you only so far.

Who is the oldest sitting MP, Alice, and who holds the record as the oldest MP? I know you know such things.

January 30, 2010 6:52 PM  

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