Readers may recall I attended some presentations at the 2009 Canadian Political Science Association meeting in Ottawa last May, and wrote about Professor Elizabeth Gidengil's paper on the 2008 Election in English Canada.

In updating my Links page just now, I noticed that the full paper ("The Anatomy of a Liberal Defeat" in PDF) is now available on the Canadian Election Study website. It's a lengthy work which I haven't had time to fully review yet, but looks to be well worthwhile. Most notably, it answered my question from last May about whether the drop in Liberal support amongst visible minorities from 2004 to 2006 was a percentage drop or a drop in the number of percentage points (it was the latter), and so I'm updating my old post accordingly.

Professor Gidengil told me in May that the full dataset for each Canadian Election Study is made available through their website on the first anniversary of each election, and so the data for the 2008 election will be available mid-October, 2009.

It's usually in SPSS (Statistical Package for the Social Sciences) format, and so not for the faint of heart. Better to read the academic publications, and leave that kind of number-crunching to the folks with the expensive statistical software, I say.

Labels: 40th General Election, Data Analysis, Election Resources

We mentioned the other day that the Election Prediction Project has set up its new site for the forthcoming election.

Now, it's been joined by democraticSpace's latest election prediction site.

One new feature is that we're all linking to one another this time. The riding profile pages at Pundits' Guide contains links to the Election Prediction Project page for the same riding, which in turn contain links to older predictions for the same riding and a link back to the Pundits' Guide page. (There's still a little kink to iron out between Simcoe North and Simcoe – Grey, but we'll get there.)

Same goes for democraticSpace. He doesn't link internally, so I've included direct links to both the 2008 and 2009 prediction sites oh wait, he does now, I just noticed!

Meanwhile NoDice.ca has been reincarnated as ElectionAlmanac.com, and is also set to go for the forthcoming election. The Election Almanac doesn't have riding-specific pages, so I just have it on my Links page instead.

Some new participants in the online community are:

• ThreeHundredEight.com which uses the published national and regional polls to generate seat projections
• Canadian Election Watch a very new blog being written by "an exiled Quebecer" and "twenty-something expat living in the United States" which produces seat projections based on current polls with a bit of the author's own commentary added
  
• PoliTwitter.ca which tracks the Twitter activity of individual MPs, Senators, journalists and other political actors and observers (including yours truly), including stats, a directory, and rankings
• TweetCommons.com which tracks the Twitter conversations between tweeting politicians and others

As soon as I have a second to expand on my Candidate index pages, I'll be cross-referencing there with Trevor May's PoliTwitter.ca pages (he's already kindly linked to my riding profile pages, for example see Jason Kenney), and Cory Horner's HowdTheyVote.ca pages (here's the current top-talking MP Paul Szabo) which I notice that Trevor is also already linking to as well.

I'm also trying to get the Links page here into some kind of shape this morning. Some of it was horribly out of date (anyone remember "Mike Duffy Live" or "Politics with Don Newman"?), and the newer media compendia needed to be added in, along with links to the new mapping resources at GeoGratis.ca.

Labels: 41st General Election, Election Resources, Polling Data, Seat Projections

The past week has seen the pace of nominations pick up, and it's set to step up a bit further this next week, continuing right through the middle of September. In addition to my regular Google Alerts and reader reports, I'd just like to give general credit once again to the Liberal Scarf who has been keeping a close eye on Liberal nominations, and from whom I picked up a number of these clippings. Due to the volume of recent activity, I'm sorry I can't give more specific item-by-item credit.

Let's start out by catching up with Denis Coderre's travels along Québec's north shore, and any other candidates who were nominated this past week.

• Berthier – Maskinongé, QC - As expected, Liberal Québec lieutenant Denis Coderre joined local party faithful this past Tuesday, August 25 to acclaim former PLQ MNA Francine Gaudet as the federal Liberal candidate in this riding, reported Le Nouvelliste. The riding is currently held by three-term Bloc Québécois M.P. Guy André.
• Saint-Maurice – Champlain, QC - L'Hebdo du St-Maurice reported on the following day's nomination meeting in Shawinigan, where Coderre welcomed the acclamation of municipal councillor France Beaulieu by 150 area Liberals this past Wednesday, August 26. Beaulieu will be facing two-term Bloc Québécois M.P. Jean-Yves Laforest. Her acclamation was assured after the withdrawal of 2008 candidate Ronald St-Onge Lynch, who told L'Hedbo du St-Maurice that the August timing of the nomination race saw him quite busy with other projects, and besides he did not want to make a $1000 contribution to the party as required by the riding association's rules which demand a non-refundable deposit of that amount for a candidate to run for the party nomination. Nevertheless, St-Onge Lynch still plans to run as an independent candidate, he says, and doesn't believe it will hurt his ability to work with the party should he be elected.
  
• Trois-Rivières, QC - Coderre did not get his man later that evening in the riding next door however, as Le Nouvelliste also reported this past week. Coderre was courting former ADQ House Leader Sébastien Proulx to run for the federal Liberals, but the former MNA demurred, citing not political disagreements with the federal Liberals (in fact, he listed a number of ADQ activists who are now joining the fray), but rather the pressures of a young family. However Trois-Rivières Liberals are said to be very unhappy with Coderre's recent focus on attracting former adéquistes to run federally and apparently don't want Proulx as their candidate, citing his attendance at Stephen Harper's rally last election. They prefer riding president John Boulet, the Nouvelliste story continues, and are apparently ready to take it to a contested nomination, although Boulet is still undecided "in spite of near unanimous support". Other potential Liberal candidates are also being discussed by the Mauricie regional Liberal Party, so adamently are they opposed to Proulx. Nevertheless, says the regional representative, as Liberals they would be reluctant to oppose any party appointment. The riding is currently represented by three-term Bloc Québécois M.P. Paule Brunelle. In each of these three adjacent riding, Liberals placed third behind the Conservatives in the last two elections, but did increase their vote in 2008.
  
• Laurier – Sainte-Marie, QC - Moving to the east island of Montréal, Liberals met to nominate their candidate this past Thursday, August 27. The Liberal Scarf blog is reporting that Philippe Allard was the only declared candidate and looks to have been acclaimed. The riding is of course represented by Bloc Québécois leader Gilles Duceppe who first won its predecessor riding as an Independent in 1990 after the untimely passing of former Liberal M.P. and working class firebrand, Jean-Claude Malépart.
  
• Lac-Saint-Louis, QC - The same evening, west island Liberals were expected to renominate their three-term M.P. Francis Scarpaleggia. I haven't found any news about the meeting, but am guessing it would only have been newsworthy had he been challenged, and thus assume he was acclaimed as expected. If you know otherwise, please drop us a line. Scarpaleggia won the riding in 2004 on the retirement of former Liberal M.P. Clifford Lincoln who was first elected in 1993. From 1984-1993, the riding's predecessor was represented by Conservative M.P. Bob Layton, the late father of current NDP Leader Jack Layton.
  
• Simcoe – Grey, ON - The Liberal nomination meeting in this riding was scheduled for Friday, August 28. So far I am unable to locate any news as to who was running and who was successful. The riding is currently held by three-term Conservative M.P. Helena Guergis, who has increased her margin of victory steadily since she narrowly defeated Liberal M.P. Paul Bonwick in 2004. Insta-update: it was 2008 candidate Andrea Matrosovs, unopposed, according to contacts of @Impolitical. Thanks for getting back to me so fast.
  

Next up, a few ridings whose nomination meetings have now been scheduled:

• Glengarry – Prescott – Russell, ON - The four-way contested Liberal nomination in this riding is now set to take place on Thursday, September 3. As we reported earlier, there are four candidates in the race: Russell Mayor Ken Hill, assistant Crown attorney Julie Bourgeois, Hawkesbury councillor Roch Greffe, and Liberal insider Maryanne Kampouris. The riding (home to Pundits' Guide power-source, Beau's All-Natural Brewery) is currently represented by two-term Conservative M.P. Pierre Lemieux.
  
• Ottawa – Orléans, ON - One of the first nomination contests to break out in the current election cycle seems likely to finally reach its conclusion the following week on Thursday, September 10, according to the Orléans Star. Running are municipal councillor Rainer Bloess, businesswoman Judith Cane and lawyer David Bertschi. The riding is now held by two-term Conservative M.P. Royal Galipeau.
  
• Northumberland – Quinte West, ON - Thursday, September 10 has officially been set for the Liberal nomination contest in this eastern Ontario riding, reports NorthumberlandView.ca. Running are businesswoman Kim Rudd, teacher Andrew McFadyen, and Brighton mayor Christine Herrington. The riding is currently represented by two-term Conservative M.P. Rick Norlock. Stan Grizzle was nominated for the Green Party at the end of March.

In other Québec nomination news:

• Rimouski-Neigette – Témiscouata – Les Basques, QC - 2008 Liberal candidate biologist Pierre Béland is said to be interested in running again, however he'll be out of the country until October 4, so it depends on the timing of the election, reported Radio-Canada. The riding is currently represented by first-term Bloc Québécois M.P. Claude Guimond, who was renominated in June. Béland had stepped down as Liberal candidate earlier in 2008, but was talked into running again by then-Leader Stéphane Dion. He placed second to Guimond, who retook the seat for his party from Bloc-turned-Independent M.P. Louise Thibault. Meanwhile, l'Avantage is reporting that 2008 Conservative candidate Gaston Noël will decide in September if he wants to run again, and while former NDP candidate Guy Caron is taking himself out of the running the riding reports that at least five potential candidates have been approached to run.
• Québec, QC - Québec Hebdo reports that Montcalm district chair and nutritionist Anne Gagné wants to run for the Liberal nomination here, saying it's always been "a dream of hers to be a member in Ottawa" and that "Mr. Coderre wants to have women on his team". A nomination meeting is likely for Monday, September 14 she says, but there may be other interested candidates. We earlier reported that former provincial cabinet minister Jean Leclerc was also considering running, after approaches this past June by both Denis Coderre and Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff. The winner will face six-term Bloc Québécois M.P. Christiane Gagnon.
  
• Outremont, QC - A new name has surfaced in the race for the Liberal nomination in this Montréal riding currently held by the only NDP M.P. in Québec, Thomas Mulcair, which the Liberals desperately want to win back. Doctor and founding president of Medecins d'Ailleurs Comlan Amouzou is running, according to Le Guide Montréal-Nord, which covered an event he attended earlier this week. There's a lot more rumour than hard information about who's in the running for that nomination: we reported last June that Denis Coderre had approached former La Presse columnist and Le Soleil editor Alain Dubuc, and more recently that former Liberal M.P. Martin Cauchon was still contemplating a run along with two other unnamed candidates.

Moving on to the rest of the country, now:

• Kingston and the Islands, ON - Small businessperson and NDP Riding President Daniel J. Beals has told his Facebook friends that he's taking the plunge and running for his party's federal nomination. No date has been set, but Beals says the next hurdle is for the riding association to request a nomination meeting, although he's rightfully staying out of that in favour of collecting signatures, and notes that other candidates may also be entering the race. 2008 candidate Brian Abrams has already received the Conservative nod, while Green candidate Eric Benoit Walton was renominated back in April. The riding is currently held by long-time Liberal M.P. and Commons Speaker Peter Milliken.
  
• Mississauga – Streetsville, ON - Mississauga city councillor Sue McFadden seems to have been headhunted by no less than the Prime Minister to run for the Conservative Party in this riding next time. McFadden was approached by local Conservatives, and met with the Prime Minister for 15 minutes on August 17, and agreed to let her name stand, reports the Mississauga News. A nomination meeting is scheduled for Friday September 11 to formalize her selection. The riding was won by first-time Liberal M.P. Bonnie Crombie, who defeated Liberal-turned-Conservative M.P. Wajid Khan. Khan was first elected as a Liberal in 2004, but accepted an advisory role to Prime Minister Harper on Afghanistan and Pakistan, and later crossed the floor. Winning the riding back was evidently a priority for the Liberals, as Crombie's campaign was financed exclusively by a $63K transfer from party headquarters, the Liberal riding association having been previously deregistered by Elections Canada after concerns were raised about loans made to it by businesses owned by Khan. Thanks to a commenter for drawing this clipping to our attention.
  
• Hamilton Centre, ON - Hamilton city councillor Bob Bratina is backing away from the chance to become the Liberal candidate in this riding, as a fall election would interfere with his desire to finish out his municipal term, reports the Hamilton Spectator. Columnist Andrew Dreschel said observers felt Bratina had "a good shot at breaking the NDP's grip" on the riding, and indeed Bratina says he is not ruling anything out "down the road". The riding is currently represented by three-term NDP M.P. Dave Christopherson, who has been elected with 46% of the vote or better on the last three outings.
  
• Hamilton East – Stoney Creek, ON - Meanwhile Dreschel reports that another municipal councillor, Maria Pearson, is the subject of rumours to the effect that she's the likely Liberal nominee in this riding. Pearson says she "can't say for sure whether she's officially running", but notes that she has not even been "officially approached". Former Hamilton mayor and 2008 Liberal candidate Larry Di Ianni has been scouting for his replacement, as we reported earlier, when he was rebuffed by NDP city councillor Sam Merulla. The riding is currently represented by two-term NDP M.P. Wayne Marston.
• Huron – Bruce, ON - A three-way contest is shaping up for the Liberal nomination in this rural riding in western Ontario. Already announced are doctor and 2008 nomination candidate Martin Bokhout and educator Deb Homouth. They are now being joined by the mayor of Brockton, Charlie Bagnato, reports the Markdale Standard, with a meeting planned for some time in October. The riding is currently represented by first-time Conservative M.P. Ben Lobb, who won after the retirement of former Liberal M.P. Paul Steckle.
  
• Winnipeg South, MB - Thanks to a reader for getting in touch to advise that no other candidate has filed papers to contest the Liberal nomination in this riding, so it appears Terry Duguid will be acclaimed when the nomination meeting is held next Wednesday, September 2. The riding is currently by two-term Conservative M.P. Rod Bruinooge.
• Saanich – Gulf Islands, BC - A Canwest brief on the Green Party nomination race in this riding reported one interesting fact that I had not come across before: namely that Stuart Hertzog has not yet been accepted by the party as a candidate. As we reported here earlier, the Greens' nomination meeting is slated for September 19. The other candidate is of course Party leader Elizabeth May, who plans to officially announce on September 8, and has already selected 2008 Nanaimo – Alberni, BC candidate John Fryer to manage her campaign. The riding is now held by long-time Conservative M.P. Gary Lunn.
• Western Arctic, NT - 2008 Conservative candidate Brendan Bell tells the Northern News Service that the last election was "unfinished business" for him and he plans to run again, even if it's against his former territorial leader and cabinet colleague Joe Handley, who was nominated this past weekend to run for the Liberals. The riding is currently represented by two-term NDP M.P. Dennis Bevington. Bell came within 3.8% of the vote of defeating Bevington in 2008, with an uncharacteristically low Liberal vote and a drop in turnout. He also doubled Bevington's spending (99% of the limit to 47%).

I've sent out a few email inquiries to see if we can tie down some outstanding candidate details, and we still need to confirm the situation of a couple of new Green Party candidates that have appeared on the party website's list, but other than that, I think we now have a full lid. Phew.

Reader contributions help make the Pundits' Guide more useful for everyone, so if you have news to share, please pass it along. And then follow along on Twitter @punditsguide.

Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Conservatives, Greens, Liberals, NDP

The following people are apparently not on the list of Senate appointees, and have determined instead to try and achieve public office the hard way:

• Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, QC - News from one of the by-election ridings that may give us some clues to the unfolding of political events this fall: the Mayor of La Pocatière, Bernard Généreux has told Le Placoteux, Radio-Canada and Le Soleil that he's the Conservative candidate for this riding, and even has a possible date for the by-elections to be called, October 13 (the Tuesday after Thanksgiving). I can't find any evidence that he's been nominated, however, but if anyone knows when and whether it was by acclamation or appointment, please get in touch, so I can enter the name into the Pundits' Guide database and add it to the counts. Bloc Québécois Leader Gilles Duceppe has also been in town for meetings with potential candidates and tells Le Soleil that he hasn't heard the talk that former Bloc M.P. Paul Crête might return, although he's heard from a few others who are interested in running. Meanwhile 2008 Liberal candidate Jean Bouchard tells Radio-Canada that he's a potential candidate and is in discussions with Denis Coderre about running again, and decisions will be taken in due course.
  
• Roberval – Lac-Saint-Jean, QC - Duceppe recently visited another Bloc target seat in the Saguenay and posed with riding president, Claude Pilote, who announced he would be a candidate for the nomination there at a meeting to be scheduled within the coming weeks, according to L'Étoile du lac. Pilote says that the riding has 1300 members now, an increase from 425 in 2008, and believes this portends improved political engagement. The riding is currently held by Conservative M.P. Denis Lebel, who was elected in the Fall 2007 by-elections, and then re-elected in 2008.
  
• Saint-Lambert, QC - Denis Coderre was in Longueuil with 60 or so Liberal activists last Sunday August 23 to see 2008 candidate Roxanne Stanners acclaimed for another run in this south shore riding across from Montréal. Stanners was first nominated to run in the aborted by-election in this riding last fall, which was later cancelled in favour of the general election where Bloc Québécois candidate Josée Beaudin was able to keep her party's seat.
• Gatineau, QC - The people of Gatineau will be seeing a lot of their political leaders if this past weekend is any indication: Liberal nomination candidate Steve McKinnon hosted a community barbecue on the same day as two-term Bloc Québécois M.P. Richard Nadeau hosted his fourth annual corn roast with party leader Gilles Duceppe in attendance, who then stayed on for a second day to campaign with Nadeau. Meanwhile, 2008 NDP candidate and former Liberal M.P. for the area, Françoise Boivin, played an early golf game with Jack Layton before attending the wedding of Layton's long-time press secretary Karl Bélanger; while Denis Coderre and Hull-Aylmer M.P. Marcel Proulx announced that the Liberals would develop a specific platform for western Québec and denied that former party national director Steve McKinnon was Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff's preferred choice to win the Gatineau nomination. The Conservatives say that they are not making any special preparations to find a candidate here, since they don't expect an election to be held soon. Folks, I think this is going to be one hot riding to watch.
  
• Stormont – Dundas – South Glengarry, ON - Both the Liberal and NDP candidates have now been acclaimed in this eastern Ontario riding. First up, 200 Liberals acclaimed Bernadette Clement on Tuesday, August 25. Then the NDP renominated its 2008 candidate, Darlene Jalbert, the following night by acclamation. The riding is currently represented by three-term Conservative M.P. Guy Lauzon, and already has a nominated Green candidate, David Rawnsley, making it the first non-vacant riding by my count to have a full slate of major party candidates nominated and in place (New Westminster – Coquitlam, BC also has a full slate, but it's vacant and awaiting an imminent by-election call).
  
• Leeds – Grenville, ON - 143 Liberals turned out to pick their winner last week in this eastern Ontario riding, selecting Marjorie Loveys in a contested nomination to run against three-term Conservative M.P. Gord Brown, reported the Brockville Recorder and Times for the Kingston Whig-Standard. Meanwhile, 2008 Green candidate Jeannie Warnock has announced she won't be running again, but area Greens tell the Whig-Standard that they are talking to two possible candidates and believe they can have a nominee in place by September 15.
  
• Renfrew – Nipissing – Pembroke, ON - Toronto lawyer Christine Tabbert will be running for the Liberal nomination in this northeastern Ontario riding at a meeting scheduled for next week (exact date unknown, and not yet on the list at the Ontario federal Liberal party's website), according to the Renfrew 96.1 FM radio station's website. The riding is currently held by four-term Conservative M.P. Cheryl Gallant, who is also expected to run again.
  
• Peterborough, ON - 2008 Liberal candidate Betsy McGregor was acclaimed by about 100 Liberals, according to the Peterborough Examiner, to run once again in this eastern Ontario riding that has often served as an English-Canadian bellwether. McGregor will now be facing two-term Conservative M.P. Dean Del Mastro. NDP candidate Steve Sharpe has told the Examiner in the past that he also intends to run again. Del Mastro won the seat in 2006 after the retirement of former Liberal M.P. Peter Adams, and increased his vote share in 2008, drawing from the former Liberal vote and even more so from former NDP supporters. Both Del Mastro and McGregor spent the limit last time, while the NDP's campaign spending dropped from 72% in 2006 under candidate Linda Slavin to just 53% by Sharpe. No Green candidate has surfaced as yet.
  
• Don Valley West, ON - My apologies for not porting this nomination over earlier from my local copy of the database up to the online Pundits' Guide, as 2008 Green Party candidate Georgina Wilcock had been renominated in this riding by acclamation back on July 14, 2009, according to the Elections Canada database. As with Saint-Lambert above, a by-election was called in this riding north of Toronto, but was later superceded by the call of the 2008 general election. The riding was vacated by retiring Liberal M.P. John Godfrey, and held by his replacement, Liberal M.P. Rob Oliphant. 2008 Conservative candidate John Carmichael has also apparently been renominated, but I don't have the date yet or whether it was contested, and will have to redouble my efforts to get in touch and confirm those details in order to add him to the database as well. If anyone can tell me, please do get in touch.
• Thornhill, ON - Thanks to a follower on Twitter for passing along that Dr. Karen Mock will be seeking the Liberal nomination in this riding, now that former Liberal M.P. Susan Kadis has taken herself out of the running. The Liberal Scarf blog located a Facebook group for Dr. Mock's candidacy where we learned that she is the former executive director of the Canadian Race Relations Foundation. Kadis lost this riding north of Toronto to first-time Conservative M.P. Peter Kent in 2008. No word on the date of any scheduled nomination meeting as yet.
• St. Paul's, ON - The Liberal Scarf has also been reading Babble and reports that one of the unsuccessful challengers for the NDP nomination in the provincial by-election that's just been called, former BC Green Party Leader Stuart Parker, is now considering a federal run in the same seat instead. Parker hailed from the left-wing of the Greens and his 2000 ouster as leader after attempting negotiations with the provincial NDP saw him replaced by Adriane Carr (now Deputy Leader of the federal Green Party) who then cancelled those negotiations. St. Paul's is currently represented by long-time Liberal M.P. Carolyn Bennett who has claimed 50% of the vote or more since 1997. Area Greens have already nominated Debborah Donnelly.
  
• Niagara Falls, ON - There will be a contested Liberal nomination in this riding (date as yet unknown), reports the Niagara Falls Review, as lawyer Bev Hodgson has stepped forward to challenge 2008 Liberal candidate Joyce Morocco for the right to represent their party against five-term Conservative M.P. Rob Nicholson (two of those terms were from 1984-1993). Nicholson's vote share increased in 2008, mainly because the Liberal raw vote dropped by 6,000 votes while the NDP's raw vote also fell by roughly 3,000 causing turnout to decline steeply from 63.2% to 54.6%. Nicholson's vote slightly increased, as did that of Green candidate Shawn Willick who appears to be the named candidate in this riding again, according to the list on the party's website, and will be hosting Green Party leader Elizabeth May when she tours the area this weekend to promote the Greens and sign copies of her new book.
• Dufferin – Caledon, ON - Both the Caledon Citizen and Hill Times are confirming what we surmised here earlier, that Liberal nomination candidate Jeffrey May has withdrawn from the race, leaving former Conservative-turned-Liberal M.P. Garth Turner as the sole remaining candidate for now. No nomination meeting has been scheduled as yet. Turner will face off against his former caucus colleague, three-term Conservative M.P. David Tilson.
  
• Algoma – Manitoulin – Kapuskasing, ON - François Cloutier, a provincial public servant in the Ministry of Attorney-General and small business owner was the winner of the 4-way contested Liberal nomination this past weekend, according to the newly constructed Election Prediction Project page for this riding (also now reported in the Sudbury Star). The northern Ontario riding is currently represented by first-time NDP M.P. Carol Hughes, who is being visited, perhaps not uncoincidentally, by NDP Leader Jack Layton today. Hughes defeated former Liberal M.P. Brent St. Denis in 2008.
  
• Sudbury, ON - Lawyer Carol Hartman won the 4-way contested Liberal nomination meeting in this northern Ontario riding last night, according to the Sudbury Star this morning (thanks to a reader for reminding me), in advance of the weekend meeting of the national Liberal caucus and $550/plate fundraising dinner. Hartman's nomination means that Sudbury joins Stormont – Dundas – South Glengarry, ON in having a full slate of nominated candidates from all the major parties. Again perhaps not coincidentally, NDP Jack Layton visited the area yesterday to campaign with his MP's Glen Thibeault who won Sudbury away from former Liberal M.P. Diane Marleau in 2008, and Nickel Belt M.P. Claude Gravelle, who also claimed a Liberal seat on the retirement of former Liberal M.P. Ray Bonin.

OK, that's a wrap for now, but I have noticed several Green Party candidates on their website whose nomination dates and details I haven't confirmed yet, so I'll be following up there over the weekend. Apart from that, I can't believe I'm actually caught up ... yippee!

As alluded to above, the Election Prediction Project is now up and running for the 41st General Election (for now being called the "2009 Election" at that site), and its publisher Milton Chan has graciously offered to include links from its riding pages to the riding profile page at the Pundits' Guide. In turn, I have updated the EPP links from every 2003 Representation Order riding profile page to his new riding page as well, so that the quantitative and qualitative/subjective aspects of each riding are now well-covered and easily accessible from one another. Note that the EPP pages now include handy links to earlier predictions for the same riding, so the world of online political coverage is slowly getting more and more cross-referenced. Thanks to Milton for this offer.

If you have nomination news to share from your part of the country or home on the political spectrum, please drop us a line. And then follow along @punditsguide on Twitter for all the latest.

Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Bloc Québécois, Conservatives, Greens, Liberals, Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, NDP

Completing our westward tour of the country, let's wrap up the backlog of nomination news from Canada's west coast and north of 60. Owing to the volume of updates and the length of the backlog, I may not be crediting every contributor properly, but again I am indebted to everyone who has been passing items along, and thank you all for your contributions.

• Langley, BC - Thanks to a patient reader who passed this item along awhile ago. Lawyer Rebecca Darnell was one of the very first candidates to announce her interest in running for office this past January, and as we reported the other week, her wish finally came true and a nomination meeting was scheduled for this past Wednesday. She will be facing three-term Conservative M.P. Mark Warawa, who has won the seat with large vote shares on each occasion.
  
• Richmond, BC - Former Liberal M.P. Raymond Chan is reportedly back for another try in his old seat, but first he'll have to win his nomination, because as a reader wrote to pass along, he will apparently be facing some competition from former Bob Rae leadership organizer Mason Loh. No date for a nomination meeting was mentioned. Chan lost the seat, which was heavily targetted by the Conservative campaign and leader's tour, to first-time Conservative M.P. Alice Wong in the last election.
  
• North Vancouver, BC - The Liberals' candidate search in this riding is continuing, given that BC Tech Industries association chair Jonathan Wilkinson has ruled himself out completely, according to Public Eye Online, while North Van lawyer Jay Straith has only ruled himself out of a fall campaign, Public Eye Online reports in another story (p.s., nice PEO site redesign, Sean!). We earlier reported that former M.P. Don Bell, having lost his bid for the BC Liberal nomination in last fall's provincial election, was considering running again federally, and haven't seen anything ruling him out since then. The riding was won by first-time Conservative M.P. Andrew Saxton in 2008, when he defeated Bell.
  
• West Vancouver – Sunshine Coast – Sea to Sky Country, BC - Daniel Veniez, the former chair of the crown corporation running Prince Rupert's bulk commodity terminal who was fired by the government several months ago, and who was at one time a Conservative fundraiser and political aide, is now hoping to become a Liberal candidate in this riding, calling himself a "Paul Martin conservative and a Joe Clark liberal", according to Public Eye Online. More coverage here, here, here and here. Veniez is scheduled to meet Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff on September 3, and one assumes the riding will hold a nomination meeting at some point after that. The seat is currently held by one-term Conservative M.P. John Weston, who defeated former Liberal-turned-Independent-turned (at the last minute)-Green M.P. Blair Wilson in the last election.
  
• Victoria, BC - Sean Holman of Public Eye Online also broke the story that Oak Bay Mayor Chris Causton is running for the Liberal nomination in this riding, after musing earlier this spring that he might run as an independent, according to the Oak Bay News. His nomination papers have been filed, and one veteran Liberal tells the Victoria Times-Colonist that he'll be a "slam-dunk" for the nomination (no date has been identified as yet), which is presumably why he's been able to get out of town now for a brief holiday. The winner will face two-term NDP M.P. Denise Savoie.
  
• Saanich – Gulf Islands, BC - The contested Liberal nomination meeting, as reported here earlier, will be held on Saturday September 12 between Renée Hetherington and Kit Spence, and 2008 Liberal candidate Briony Penn has endorsed one of the two candidates rather than support her former Green Party colleague Elizabeth May, telling Public Eye Online that "Elizabeth did ask for my support. And I kind of had to point out, 'Where was yours six months ago?' Because I would have been in Ottawa right now if it had been there." Meanwhile, the Green Party nomination meeting has been scheduled for the following Saturday, September 19. Still no word from 2008 Green Party candidate Andrew Lewis about whether he plans to run or not. The riding is currently held by five-term Conservative M.P. Gary Lunn.
• Western Arctic, NT - Further north, Northwest Territories Liberals acclaimed former NWT Premier Joe Handley as their candidate this past Saturday, and Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff landed in Yellowknife yesterday to meet with him. The riding is currently held by two-term NDP M.P. Dennis Bevington, who narrowly beat out Conservative candidate Brendan Bell in the last election, with Liberal candidate Gabrielle Mackenzie-Scott a distant third. Bell has yet to decide whether he'll run again, the CBC is reporting. Interestingly, Bell was an MLA and member of Handley's cabinet in the NWT territorial government.

So now there are a few items of nomination news from across the country to catch up on tomorrow, and then we are fully back up to date after the distractions of summer. As always, if you have nomination or candidate information from your neck of the woods, please bring us up to speed by dropping me a line. Then follow along on Twitter for the latest updates and nomination counts.

Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Conservatives, Greens, Liberals

There's nomination news going on in more ridings than just Saanich – Gulf Islands, so let's get caught up west of the lakehead now, starting in Manitoba:

• Winnipeg Centre, MB - Thanks to a reader for passing along an event notification referring to Allan Wise as "the Liberal candidate in Winnipeg Centre". Wise appears to be on the staff of the Community Education Development Association (CEDA) as the West Alexander Community Development Coordinator. However no candidate information is posted on the Manitobe federal Liberal website as yet. I'll be trying to confirm when Wise was nominated and whether he was acclaimed, so I can enter the name into the Pundits' Guide database. If anyone can help, please get in touch. The riding is currently represented by five-term NDP M.P. Pat Martin. Already nominated is Jacqueline Romanow for the Green Party.
  
• Winnipeg South, MB - More thanks are due to the same reader who also passed along the date for the Liberal nomination in this riding, now scheduled for Wednesday September 2. So far it appears no-one is challenging Terry Duguid. The riding is now held by two-term Conservative M.P. Rod Bruinooge.
  
• Dauphin – Swan River – Marquette, MB - The Portage Daily Graphic ran down some of the names considering a run against Robert Sopuck, whose candidacy we already reported on here, for the Conservative nomination to replace Inky Mark on his retirement, and a week later the Central Plains Herald-Leader is confirming that riding president and farmer Wayne Mathison has stepped down as riding association president in order to run for the nomination. Not running is Ken Waddell, the publisher of the Neepawa Banner, who has run against Mark for the nomination in the past, but for whom the timing now is not ideal. No meeting date has been set as yet.
  
• Churchill, MB - Churchill businessman Wally Daudrich is being referred to as the Conservative candidate in this riding by Mia Rabson, in a Winnipeg Free Press story where he criticizes the nominated Liberal candidate Sydney Garrioch. Daudrich ran for the Conservatives in 2008, so it's unclear to me whether he has been formally renominated for the forthcoming election, but it's at least clear from this story that he retains an interest in political developments in the riding. If anyone knows the status of his nomination, again please help us out by getting in touch. The riding was won by first-time NDP M.P. Niki Ashton in 2008, who defeated former Liberal M.P. Tina Keeper. Garrioch was acclaimed earlier this summer.
  
• Saskatoon – Humboldt, SK - The contested NDP nomination meeting for this riding is now confirmed for Thursday September 10, a reader writes to advise. As reported before, recent University of Sask graduate Scott Stelmaschuk and community activist Denise Kouri will be squaring off, while 2008 candidate Scott Ruston is bowing out this time. The riding is currently held by three-term Conservative M.P. Brad Trost.

Unfortunately I have to finish up there for now, but will (I promise!) come back to wrap up BC after work today, and then double back to cover the most recent news from across the country.

Meantime, if you have nomination news to share from your part of the country or corner of the political spectrum, get in touch with the Pundits' Guide, and then follow along on Twitter for all the latest news.

Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Conservatives, Liberals, NDP

[Welcome, National Newswatch readers !]

[UPDATE: See below for additional background.]

Green Party Leader Elizabeth May is being challenged by a member of her own party for the nomination in her chosen riding of Saanich – Gulf Islands, BC.

May will have to deal with newly-declared candidate Stuart Hertzog of Victoria, a Greenpeace activist who has been involved with the Green Party in Alberta and British Columbia since 1983, and who is the publisher of the website GreenPolitics.ca.

In a blogpost published late yesterday entitled "Why I am standing as a nomination candidate", Hertzog says he became involved in grassroots activism because "Secret decisions were made behind closed doors, in cabinet or at private meetings with corporate CEOs and lobbyists," that could only be fought by winning the war for public opinion. However, unfortunately he has seen that "the same tendency towards anti-democratic centralisation has become dominant in Canada’s Green parties".

Hertzog says he disagrees with the decision of the Green Party of Canada's Federal Council to make electing the leader its overarching priority, saying that:

"[T]he ‘leader’ of a Green Party is supposed to be a spokesperson, not a dictator. The cult of leadership and its promotion by the corporate media is not Green. I believe that getting the leader of the Green Party elected won’t change anything, except to guarantee the flow of funds to central party coffers and reduce the Green party to being seen as just another bunch of untrustworthy politicians that make self-serving deals...."

"By desperately trying to become a mainstream political party, Green parties are in danger of losing their vision, and soul. It has been said that: 'Without vision, the people perish.' I say that without principles, politics is an empty charade...."

"Parachuting the leader of the Green Party into a foreign bioregion and pouring in the money, will not change Canadian politics by one iota."

"This is why I am standing as a nomination candidate for Saanich-Gulf Islands, in my Island bioregion."

In my experience, it is unprecedented for the leader of a major political party to be challenged for the nomination in their chosen seat by a member of their own party. Perhaps any reader with a previous example of this could add it to the comment section below, and refresh our memories.

But the move strikes me as particularly significant because it comes from the left of the Green Party (Hertzog once worked within the Green Caucus of the BC NDP and ran under that banner in 1991), whereas May's most public critics to date have emerged from the right of the party.

And have no doubt, Saanich – Gulf Islands *is* May's chosen riding; the announcement of that decision, scheduled for September 8 in the campaign office already rented for her, is a mere formality by this point, and already widely known on the ground out there and elsewhere.

UPDATE: Hertzog's criticism of May's leadership style and his impending nomination challenge may have been presaged in his early August review of her last book, "Losing Confidence", in a blogpost Hertzog titled "Losing Confidence in Elizabeth May". In it, Hertzog praised her analysis of the problems with Canadian parliamentary democracy, but went on to say that May:

"... provides no practical suggestions as to how this mess can be cleaned up and a genuine democracy established. She knows the rules, but fails to grapple with the nature of the game...."

"Although she lays out clearly exactly what’s wrong with Canada’s parliamentary system, May’s thinking falls short in three vital aspects. First, her strategy for returning order to parliament is simplistic and ineffective; and second, while pointing her finger at elected politicians of other parties, she fails to realise that the same democratic deficit she describes in parliament, exists inside her own political party."

"Finally, does Elizabeth May and the federal council of the Green Party of Canada really believe that getting one or two Green MPs elected to a dysfunctional parliament in a far from democratic political system, will fundamentally alter the nature of Canadian politics? If they do, they are collectively dreaming in technicolour. Saving the Earth from the worst aspects of self-centred humanity will require bringing about an eco-centric and not an ego-centric, global culture."

So, Saanich – Gulf Islands will be living up to its billing as a "riding to watch" in yet one more election. Many observers have already noted that May must win a seat in order to forestall her critics from the right-wing of the party, who are planning a leadership challenge by former Ontario Green Party leader Frank de Jong at the next mandated party convention.

But now to get even that far, May will first have to contend with a nomination challenger from the other wing of her party. How she does so will determine to a large extent her ability to carry on as party leader past the convention and the next federal election, the exact ordering of which remains unknown.

Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Greens

Three new candidates were nominated in Ontario over the past week, with another due to be selected later this weekend. And there's lots of other candidate news to report on, so let's get going:

• Ottawa – Vanier, ON - Some 30 area Greens selected Caroline Rioux in a contested nomination meeting this past Thursday August 20, over 2008 candidate Akbar Manoussi, reports Dave Bagler's blog. The riding is currently represented by long-time Liberal M.P. Mauril Bélanger.
• Leeds – Grenville, ON - Riding Liberals renominated 2008 candidate Marjory Loveys in a contested nomination against Heather Rathgeb Friday August 21. The riding is currently represented by three-term Conservative M.P. Gord Brown, who has obtained 50% of the vote or greater on each of his last three outings.
• Sudbury, ON - Area Conservatives recently acclaimed new candidate and chartered accountant Fred Slade on August 14, reports NorthernLife.ca. Slade will be facing first-time NDP M.P. Glenn Thibeault who is expected to be renominated by acclamation at a meeting on Thursday September 10, Green Party candidate Fred Twilley who kind of won a contested nomination in June when his opponent withdrew, and a Liberal candidate to be selected on August 27, just prior to the scheduled Liberal national caucus pre-session meeting in Sudbury to be held from August 31 - September 2. I have counted as many as five candidates in the race in a previous post. Evidently the party has high hopes for and is placing a high priority on trying to regain this seat. Meanwhile one candidate who likely won't be running again is 2008 independent candidate David Popescu, who was recently convicted of promoting hatred for things he told a high school audience during an all-candidates' meeting in the last election.
  
• Algoma – Manitoulin – Kapuskasing, ON - Liberals will be selecting from amongst four candidates over two days this weekend in this northern Ontario riding currently represented by first-term NDP M.P. Carol Hughes. Running are Joe Chapman, a federal Crown Attorney and former Mayor of Northeastern Manitoulin and the Islands (NEMI), Wawa Chief Accounting Officer Chris Wray, François Cloutier, a provincial public servant in the Ministry of Attorney-General and small business owner, and Marc Dupuis who is a VP of the Nord-Aski Regional Economic Development Corporation and a Hearst city councillor. Results are expected late Sunday night.

In other Ontario candidate news:

• Stormont – Dundas – South Glengarry, ON - As we reported earlier in the week, Liberal nomination candidate Bernadette Clement is now expected to be acclaimed at a nomination meeting scheduled for this Tuesday August 25, reports the Cornwall Standard Freeholder. The following day on August 26 her NDP opponent, Darlene Jalbert, is also expected to be renominated by acclamation as we reported here earlier this week. The riding is currently represented by three-term Conservative M.P. Guy Lauzon, and the Green Party has already renominated former candidate David Rawnsley, leaving Clement as the only new face in the race amongst the major parties.
• Northumberland – Quinte West, ON - The three Liberal candidates seeking their party's nomination in this eastern Ontario riding are still awaiting a date to be set for their nomination contest, reports Northumberland Today, although it will be before September 11, the Ontario federal Liberal executive director has told them. Running are businesswoman Kim Rudd, teacher Andrew McFadyen, and Brighton mayor Christine Herrington. The riding is held by two-term Conservative M.P. Rick Norlock. Green candidate Stan Grizzle was one of the first candidates to be nominated by any party anywhere in the country for the 41st general election.
• Durham, ON - Meantime, Greens in this 905 riding east of Toronto have opened nominations from Friday September 4 to Friday September 11, for a meeting to be held on Thursday September 24. The riding is currently represented by three-term Conservative M.P. Bev Oda.
• Mississauga South, ON - A reader writes to pass along that long-time Liberal M.P. Paul Szabo has told his riding association that he is raring to go for a fall election, but would "rethink his priorities" if an election were to be held later than that. Szabo was first elected in 1993 when he defeated long-time Progressive Conservative M.P. Don Blenkarn, and he has survived two close calls (i.e., two close margin victories) over his last two Conservative opponents in this riding west of Toronto. 2008 Conservative candidate Hugh Arrison is already running for renomination in this riding, which would likely become an even bigger Conservative target seat should Szabo appear likely to take his retirement from the Commons.
• Hamilton Centre, ON - A Hamilton Spectator story of the other week lists retired public servant James Byron as the Conservative candidate in this riding, running against the NDP's three-term M.P. Dave Christopherson, however I have not unearthed any other information as to the date of his nomination, or whether it was contested. If you have any contact information for Mr. Byron or that riding association, I wonder if you could get in touch and pass it along so I can verify that data and properly enter the nomination into the Pundits' Guide database and thus include it in the Conservative Party candidate counts.
• Hamilton East – Stoney Creek, ON - Conservatives in this riding will be looking for another candidate, as Frank Rukavina who has run for them twice here indicated he will not be running again, according to the same Hamilton Spectator story. The riding is currently held by two-term NDP M.P. Wayne Marston. Former Liberal candidate Larry Di Ianni was still not ruling himself out of another run in the Spec story, but has since done so and is currently trying to recruit his own replacement, so far striking out with NDP city councillor Sam Merulla. Liberals viewed Marston as weak last time, but in fact he maintained and even slightly increased his raw vote in spite of declining turnout, with no consensus emerging between his opponents who thus split the remainder of the vote.
• Welland, ON - Thursday, September 17 is the date now set for a three-way contest for the Conservative nomination in this most south-eastern riding in the province. Running are 2008 candidate Alfred Kiers; a regional councillor from St. Catharines, Bruce Timms; and businesswoman Leanne Villella. The riding was won by first-time NDP M.P. Malcolm Allen in the last election, over long-time former Liberal M.P. John Maloney who has already been renominated by his party to run in the forthcoming election.
• Elgin – Middlesex – London, ON - The St. Thomas Times-Journal is reporting in a brief that 2008 Liberal candidate Suzanne Van Bommel won't be running again, and so the riding association will apparently be looking for a new candidate. The riding is now held by three-term Conservative M.P. Joe Preston, whose Liberal and NDP opponents almost neatly split in half the vote that did not go to him in the last election.
• Sarnia – Lambton, ON - A contested Liberal nomination is underway in this far southwestern riding, currently held by two-term Conservative M.P. Pat Davidson, and where the Liberals who held the riding as recently as 2004 under maverick M.P. Roger Gallaway fell to third place with just over half their 2004 vote in 2008 behind the NDP's Andy Bruziewicz. Reprising the nomination fight this time are 2008 Liberal candidate Tim Fugard, and unsuccessful 2008 Liberal nomination candidate and Sarnia city councillor Anne Marie Gillis. Both have been greenlighted by the party, according to the London Free Press, but I haven't come across a confirmed nomination meeting date as yet.
• York – Simcoe, ON - A reader writes to say that University of Toronto Social Work and Aboriginal Studies prof Cynthia Wesley-Esquimaux is likely to be acclaimed as the Liberal candidate in this riding at their nomination meeting scheduled for Tuesday, August 25. Wesley-Esquimaux is a member of the Chippewa of Georgina Island first nation in the Simcoe area and also previously taught at Laurentian University. The riding is currently represented by three-term Conservative M.P. Peter Van Loan, and Vicki Gunn of the Christian Heritage Party is also already nominated.
• Dufferin – Caledon, ON - Regular readers of this blog will not have been surprised this past week to read of former Conservative-turned-Liberal M.P. Garth Turner's interest in running for his adopted party's nomination in this riding rather than his old riding of Halton (currently represented by first-time Conservative M.P. Lisa Raitt, and the subject of a recent candidate appointment of Deborah Gillis by Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff). Instead Turner has filed nomination papers to run against three-term Conservative M.P. David Tilson. 2008 Liberal candidate Rebecca Finch announced at the beginning of the year that she was disillusioned by party politics and would not be running again. Another prospective Liberal candidate, riding president Jeffrey May, had been in the field for several months before the summer break, but his "Candidate Journey" blog has now disappeared and did not publish after June of 2009, perhaps explaining why the Orangeville Citizen was unable to reach him for reaction on Turner's plans. Already renominated is Green Party candidate Ard Van Leeuwen.
• Parry Sound – Muskoka, ON - Three Liberals have their eye on the nomination to run against two-term Conservative M.P. Tony Clement, reports the Bracebridge Examiner & Gravenhurst Banner. Computer consultant and jazz musician Doug Banwell, a former aide in the Ontario Rae government, lawyer Shawn Pudsey, and former journalist Leigh Beal will face off on Sunday, August 30. Clement first won the riding with the narrowest margin of victory in the 2006 election (by just 28 votes), but went on to be decisively reelected in 2008, serving as the best recent example of how a close margin in one election is not necessarily predictive of an equally close race the next time around.

Other recently scheduled Liberal nomination meetings on tap in Ontario include:

• Tue 25 Aug - Peterborough, ON - no information immediately available
  
• Fri 28 Aug - Simcoe – Grey, ON - again I have no information about any candidates
  
• Mon 31 Aug - Ottawa West – Nepean, ON - where former M.P. David Pratt is expected to be acclaimed

Believe it or not, we actually made it to the Manitoba border this time! I'll have to wrap up the Prairies and BC on Sunday. If you have any nomination news, can confirm the nomination details of John Byron, or know the names of the Liberal candidates who will be running in Peterborough or Simcoe – Grey, or find out who won in Algoma – Manitoulin – Kapuskasing tomorrow night, please drop us a line so we can share with Guide readers. Then follow @punditsguide on Twitter for all the latest news.

Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Conservatives, Greens, Liberals, NDP

Continuing our westward tour across the country, let's catch up on the nomination news from Québec. Many of these clippings come from the diligent work of the Liberal Scarf blog, while others were submitted by a regular reader and friend, and some arrived courtesy of les Alertes Google.

What's missing, and surprisingly so, are any names for the now-vacant seat of Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, QC. So far we have heard one name of a possibly interested retiring municipal politician for the Conservative nomination, but no Bloquiste, Liberal or New Democrat. On the face of it, this implies that potential candidates are considering their options as between a municipal and federal career, and weighing the possibility that both could be waged at the same time, given that the Québec municipal elections are scheduled for November 1, and the latest rumour-flavour of the week has a federal election unfolding on Monday, November 9 (being the first Monday at least 36 days after the scheduled Liberal Opposition Day on Wednesday September 30). The by-election in MIKR must be called by Wednesday, November 18 for Tuesday, December 29 or later.

As to the ridings actually having news, we start with three newly nominated Liberal candidates in Conservative ridings this past week:

• Mégantic – L'Érable, QC - Marc Giroux, whom we previously reported to be running for the Liberal nomination in this eastern townships riding, was acclaimed at a nomination meeting attended by Québec lieutenant Denis Coderre in Thetford Mines this past Monday August 17, reported La Nouvelle and Le Soleil. The riding is currently represented by Coderre's Conservative counterpart, two-term Conservative M.P. Christian Paradis and has been a Conservative-Bloc contest in the last two elections, although it exchanged hands several times between the Bloc Québécois and Liberals prior to that.
  
• Louis-Saint-Laurent, QC - A former Parti Québécois ministerial advisor from the Lévesque era and one-time Conservative Party worker in the 1980s has "thought long and hard" and decided to run for the Liberal Party this time, reported le Journal de Québec. Johanne Brisson was also acclaimed her new party's candidate this past Tuesday in the presence of Denis Coderre and Marc Garneau, making her the first Liberal candidate in the Québec city region, and she will now face two-time Conservative M.P. Josée Verner and recently-nominated Bloc Québécois candidate France Gagné. The riding's predecessor, Québec East was held for two terms after 1993 by the Bloc, but then narrowly lost to Liberal Jean-Guy Carignan in 2000. However, Carignan left the Liberal caucus after he pleaded guilty in a hit-and-run incident, and then ran as an independent in the redistributed seat of Louis-Saint-Laurent in 2004 when it returned to the Bloc Québécois and Liberal candidate Michel Fragasso fell to third place behind Verner. No Liberal since then has exceeded Fragasso's 22.3% vote share, although their vote did double from 6.4% in 2006 to 13.4% in 2008. Le Soleil is spelling her name "Joane" rather than "Johanne", so if anyone can confirm the correct spelling for me, please do get in touch.
  
• Jonquière – Alma, QC - Notary and Chamber of Commerce member Bianka Villeneuve was acclaimed in the presence of Québec lieutenant Denis Coderre this past Wednesday, August 19, as the Liberal candidate in this Saguenay area riding, currently represented by four-term Conservative M.P. Jean-Pierre Blackburn. The riding has been a Conservative-Bloc contest the last two outings, but was previously won by Bloquistes earning roughly half the vote, the vote share enjoyed by Blackburn in the last two elections. Blackburn previously represented the riding for two terms from 1984 to 1993, when he lost to a newly elected Bloc Québécois M.P.
• Louis-Hébert, QC - Meanwhile one potential candidate whose interest is apparently being rebuffed, former M.P. and prime ministeral aide in the Martin government, Hélène Chalifour Scherrer, is not being mentioned in discussions about her old riding, reports Simon Boivin of Le Soleil. Rather, 2008 candidate Jean Beaupré is getting set for a return, and Québec lieutenant Denis Coderre with whom Scherrer is said to have a cool relationship is saying little. The riding was the Conservatives' only loss in the province last time, as one-term M.P. Luc Harvey was narrowly defeated by the Bloc's Pascal-Pierre Paillé; and according to the Liberal Scarf blog is considered by Liberals to be their best shot in the Québec city region this time around.
• Québec, QC - Le Soleil is also reporting in the same story that Jean Leclerc is considering a run for the federal Liberals in this riding, currently held by long-time Bloc Québécois M.P. Christiane Gagnon.
  
• Roberval – Lac-Saint-Jean, QC - 2008 candidate Bernard Garneau is interested in representing the Liberal Party once again in this riding, where he was born and still has family, and plans to retire to next year from Hamilton. No date has been set for the nomination meeting as yet. The riding was won by Conservative M.P. Denis Lebel in a 2007 by-election after the retirement of Bloc Québécois M.P. and former leader Michel Gauthier. Lebel was re-elected in 2008 over a new Bloc challenger, with Garneau well behind, just barely earning the 10% vote share required for a rebate of paid candidate expenses.
• Abitibi – Baie-James – Nunavik – Eeyou, QC - Further north, Coderre introduced his candidate for the Liberal nomination, Val d'Or engineer Léandre Gervais, Tuesday of last week, reported l'Echo Abitibien. The nomination meeting will be held on Sunday, August 30, and it's unclear whether any other candidate will be running at that time, although Gervais has been speaking with former Conservative-turned-Liberal M.P. Guy St-Julien who does not appear to be interested in running again. The riding is currently represented by three-term Bloc Québécois M.P. Yvon Lévesque, who has previously confirmed his intention to run again.
• Compton – Stanstead, QC - A nomination meeting has been scheduled for Wednesday, September 23 at which three-term Bloc Québécois M.P. France Bonsant is expected to be acclaimed her party's candidate once again, reports Le Reflet du Lac. Bonsant's Liberal opponent, 2008 candidate William Hogg, was acclaimed earlier this summer. Both candidates claim to be ready for a fall election should one occur.

No new confirmed candidates in any of the Montréal ridings, although some announcements of Liberal candidates for their three big targets of Outremont, Ahuntsic, and Jeanne-Le Ber are expected at their party conference in October should no election be triggered before then, according to an anonymous commenter on the Liberal Scarf blog. Former Outremont Liberal M.P. Martin Cauchon, is still said to be considering a run, along with two other potential Liberal candidates for that prized riding.

News from out of the NDP convention suggests that both Alexandre Boulerice in Rosemont – La Petite-Patrie and Daniel Breton in Jeanne-Le Ber are planning to run again, while Hoang Mai who ran last time in Brossard – La Prairie was featured in the party's convention video, which was also taken as a strong indication of his future plans.

OK, that's the wrap on Québec for now. On to Ontario, and then points west.

Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Bloc Québécois, Liberals, NDP

OK, thanks everyone for your patience. I'm not leaving this computer today until we get all caught up on the nomination news. Working from east to west, we got as far as the Golden Horseshoe last time, but now I need to double-back to Newfoundland and start up again, and it just seems more manageable to do it by regions this time. Ready? OK, here we go starting with the Atlantic:

• St. John's South – Mount Pearl, NL - Former VOCM Nightline talk-show host Ryan Cleary, who ran for the NDP in 2008, has recently stepped down from his radio show and announced that he will run for the NDP nomination in this riding once again. One Ottawa Liberal blogger is claiming that Mr. Cleary was fired by VOCM, but the reference he cites is an audio-tape on YouTube featuring a VO telephone receptionist saying Cleary "is no longer with the company as of yesterday" followed by 20-30 seconds of dead air. Meantime, St. John's blogger Polemic and Paradox has penned several posts discussing Cleary's non-renewal of his contract with VOCM, which have been heavily commented on. I wish I could provide you with hard news sources, but the CBC interview with Cleary linked to by Polemic and Paradox is no longer available. Cleary came within 2.8% of the vote (5.1 votes per poll) of passing first-time Liberal M.P. Siobhan Coady in the riding vacated by retiring Conservative M.P. Loyola Hearn. The riding has been a source of heartbreak for the NDP before, in a 2000 by-election, where NDP candidate and former Codco performer Greg Malone came within 356 votes (1.6 votes per poll) of besting Hearn when the latter was first sent to Ottawa.
  
• Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, NS - The contested Liberal nomination between 2008 candidate Tracy Parsons and farmer Jim Burrows will be decided on Sunday, September 12, the Truro Daily News is reporting. I just added a Google Map to the "Vacant Riding Watch" section of the main page, showing this riding in relation to the other Nova Scotia ridings, in case you missed it. Already nominated there are Conservative candidate Scott Armstrong and new Christian Heritage Party leader Jim Hnatiuk. New Democrats who attended the recent Halifax convention were surprised not to hear news of who their party's candidate might be, but did learn that it won't be Alexis MacDonald unless the by-election is delayed until 2010, as she will be leaving shortly for a six-month working visit to Africa on behalf of the Stephen Lewis Foundation. MacDonald ran second against Peter MacKay twice in Central Nova, NS, but then lost the NDP nomination for Halifax riding to Megan Leslie in 2008. She had been rumoured to be a likely candidate for the by-election in NDP circles down east.
• Halifax, NS - Speaking of Halifax riding, the Liberal nomination race there between Dalhousie University Medicine Faculty member Stan Kutcher and businessman Chris Crowell will be decided at a meeting on Tuesday, September 22. The competition has been hotly contested on the web, Twitter, Facebook and at multiple social events. As mentioned above, first-time NDP M.P. Megan Leslie retained this riding for her party on the retirement of former M.P. and one-time party leader Alexa McDonough.
  
• Miramichi, NB - Thanks to commenter the506 for passing along this clipping from the Miramichi Leader, which reports the announced candidacy of Keith Vickers for the Liberal nomination against first-time Conservative M.P. Tilly O'Neill-Gordon. Vickers joins two candidates already in the race: Véronique Arsenault, formerly of the Chamber of Commerce, and former Miramichi Mayor John McKay. The riding is home to the long-gun registry, and was recently visited by Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff. O'Neill-Gordon defeated former Liberal M.P. Charles Hubbard (and Vickers' former boss) by just over 5% of the vote, in a situation of declining turnout mainly at the Liberals' expense. Never a big spending candidate, Hubbard spent just 38% of the limit (down from 42% and 46% in 2004 and 2006), while O'Neill-Gordon spent 70% of the limit, down from the 86% spent in 2006 by predecessor Michael Morrison, but up from the 49% he spent in 2004.

That's all the news from the Atlantic provinces for now, but there is a lot to report from Québec, which we'll cover in the next post.

Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Liberals, NDP

Picking up from yesterday morning, let's keep working across the country with a catch-up on the nomination news of the past week.

• Laurier – Sainte-Marie, QC - Lib - The Liberal Scarf blog is reporting that Philippe Allard, who works with an organization that promotes the study of science, will run for the Liberal nomination set to take place in this east-end Montréal riding on Saturday, August 29. The riding has been represented by Bloc Québécois leader Gilles Duceppe since he won it as an independent in a by-election in 1990 prior to the Bloc's official recognition as a registered party. Being one of the longest-serving members in the House, of course, Duceppe has been subject to perennial rumours of his impending resignation, and the associated speculation about the future of his riding and province in that event. As a results he has had to confirm twice this summer that he has every intention of running in the next election. However, this hasn't stopped rumours from circulating, including one that was recently brought to my attention that Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff's former student at Harvard, former Bloc Parti Québécois leader André Boisclair would be "open" to running for the Liberals in that riding, but only if Duceppe stepped down and there were a by-election. [UPDATE: Thanks to a commenter for the whack over the head on that one!]
  
• Gatineau, QC - International trade consultant Jean-Paul Ruszkowski is making it a three-way race for the Liberal nomination on Thursday, September 3 in this western Québec riding located across the river from Ottawa, reports Le Droit. Ruszkowski joins 2008 candidate Michel Simard and former Liberal national director Steve McKinnon. The winner will take on two-term Bloc Québécois M.P. Richard Nadeau and likely former Gatineau M.P. Liberal-turned-New Democrat Françoise Boivin who has said she will run again.
• Stormont – Dundas – South Glengarry, ON - Thanks to a reader for pointing out this clipping from the Cornwall Standard Freeholder in which 2008 NDP candidate Darlene Jalbert announces her intention to run again. The NDP nomination meeting in this riding is now scheduled for Wednesday, August 26 in Cornwall where she is almost certain to be acclaimed, reports another reader, who also passes along that Denis Sabourin is set to announce his withdrawal from the Liberal nomination race, leaving Cornwall city councillor Bernadette Clement likely to be acclaimed there. The riding is currently represented by three-term Conservative M.P. Guy Lauzon, and the Green Party has already renominated former candidate David Rawnsley.
• Ottawa Centre, ON - The initially successful candidate for student association president at Carleton University whose win was overturned under controversial circumstances, Bruce Kyereh-Addo, will now be running for the Conservative nomination here, reports the Liberal Scarf blog with the full blow-by-blow here. Your guide can write from personal experience that this was not the first CUSA presidential election to be overturned, and many young future politicians first cut their teeth on Carleton student politics. The Liberal nomination race is still on-going here, and while I haven't seen a meeting date announced as yet, the membership cut-off has been set for August 24. Area Greens have already renominated Jen Hunter, and the riding's two-term NDP M.P. Paul Dewar will face a nomination meeting on Monday September 28.
  
• Leeds – Grenville, ON - Thanks to a rather patient follower on Twitter who first sent me this nomination meeting date just as I went on hiatus for a few days. I posted the date but didn't write about the meeting right away, although I will now. The contested Liberal nomination meeting in this riding is set for Friday August 21, and running are journalist Heather Rathgeb and 2008 candidate Marjorie Loveys. The riding is currently held by three-term Conservative M.P. Gord Brown (who may share some of my fond memories of overturned CUSA elections).
  
• Thornhill, ON - Former Liberal M.P. Susan Kadis informed her riding association this past weekend that she would not run for the nomination again, a reader writes to advise. Kadis lost the seat to first-time Conservative M.P. Peter Kent in 2008. No word on any future nomination meeting plans, but the reader promises to keep us apprised.
  
• Hamilton East – Stoney Creek, ON - Former 2008 Liberal candidate and Hamilton mayor Larry Di Ianni is searching for his replacement as candidate, this time being turned down by city councillor Sam Merulla who is sticking with the NDP, reports the Hamilton Spectator. Di Ianni ran unsuccessfully against two-term NDP M.P. Wayne Marston in the last election.
  

OK, that's all the time I have for now. So I'll pick it up with Welland news a bit later today.

Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Conservatives, Liberals, NDP

I ran into a reader on the street last night who admonished me for not writing much in the past week. "How can you create an addiction like that, and then stop feeding it daily" he chided me. Well, the past week at the cottage I was working on some mapping for the site, and then we came back to town and I've just started a new job with all the work and upheaval that creates. So things are a little busy here, and I'm a bit behind, but let see if we can't feed my friends' jones a bit. Thanks to everyone who sent along information as well for their patience. Let's start in the east, and see how far west we can work ourselves this morning.

• Avalon, NL - Former one-term Conservative M.P. Fabian Manning has told VOCM radio in St. John's that he's "keeping his options open" and that his province "needs a seat at the table". This is reasonably significant, since Manning was appointed to Senate seat after the election, which I'm reasonably positive he'd have to give up in order to run for the Commons. Hmmm, time to dust off the Parliament of Canada Act and check that out (no time this morning, though). VOCM, for those who haven't had the fortune to visit Newfoundland, stands for "Voice of the Common Man" and is the radio station that broadcasts the ubiquitous "open line" shows that have been the mainstay of political debate in that province. Manning was defeated by first-term Liberal M.P. Scott Andrews last time around in the midst of Premier Williams' "anyone but conservative" campaign.
• Egmont, PE - In the wake of Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff's weekend visit to the Island, several Liberals are lining up to try and win their party's nod for the chance to take on another first-time M.P., this time first-time Conservative M.P. Gail Shea who won by just 55 votes over first-time Liberal candidate Keith Milligan. Milligan is considering whether to run again, reports the Charlottetown Guardian, and is expected to give an up or down by early September. Also said to be interested are the son of the former M.P., Matt McGuire, previous nomination candidate Angie Cormier, former provincial party president Brenda Hackett, and two provincial Liberal MLAs, Janice Sherry and Rob Henderson. No meeting date has been set, but Ignatieff is urging riding Liberals to get a candidate in place as soon as possible. (h/t the Liberal Scarf)
• Fredericton, NB - A founding member of the newly-formed New Brunswick chapter of Equal Voice is getting set to practice what she preaches, as University of New Brunswick English prof Wendy Robbins has announced she'll be running for the Liberal nomination in this seat, currently held by first-time Conservative M.P. Keith Ashdown. Ashdown was elected following the retirement of former Liberal M.P. Andy Scott, defeating Liberal engineer David Innes by 11%. No word on when a nomination meeting might be held. (again, h/t the Liberal Scarf)
• Bas-Richelieu – Nicolet – Bécancour, QC - The dean of the House of Commons, Bloc Québécois M.P. Louis Plamondon, will celebrate his 25th anniversary of elected office on September 4th. Plamondon is the only M.P. currently in the House to have been elected in the 1984 general election (when he was elected as a Conservative M.P.) and to be consistently reelected since then (Conservative M.P. Rob Nicholson was also elected in 1984, but had a break in service). Plamondon went on to become a founding member of the Bloc Québécois, and as Dean of the Commons he chaired the Commons session that reelected Peter Milliken as Speaker after the last election, the first time a separatist M.P. has ever been in the Chair to my knowledge. A big party is planned in his riding on the long weekend, reports Le Nouvelliste. Not mentioned is whether Plamondon plans to run again, however, although he has been returned to Ottawa with between 55% and 68% of the vote since 1984.
• Berthier – Maskinongé, QC - Former provincial Liberal MNA Francine Gaudet will be running for the Liberal nomination in this north shore riding, currently held by three-term Bloc Québécois M.P. Guy André, reports the Hebdo Journal. She'll have an uphill battle to unseat him however, as Liberals fell to third in the last two outings in this seat to the benefit of Conservative candidate and businesswoman Marie-Claude Godue. No word if Godue is planning another run. (h/t the Liberal Scarf)

OK, we'll have to stop there and pick it up this evening in Montréal and points west of that. Hopefully we'll be fully caught up by the end of the day.

Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Bloc Québécois, Conservatives, Liberals

Getting back to reality after two weeks at the lake. I'll start by catching up with the candidates who were actually nominated this past week, and one whose nomination has been cancelled. Then tomorrow I'll catch up with the rest of the news.

• Richmond – Arthabaska, QC - As we previously reported, Louis Bérubé was acclaimed the Liberal candidate in this eastern townships riding this past August 10. Liberal Québec lieutenant, M.P. Denis Coderre's attendance at the meeting generated a bit of election speculation. The riding is currently held by three-term Bloc Québécois M.P. André Bellavance.
• Argenteuil – Papineau – Mirabel, QC - The son of former long-time Liberal M.P. Francis Fox, 25-year old Daniel Fox, was acclaimed the Liberal candidate in this riding on August 12, reports l'Argenteuil. The western Québec seat is currently held by Coderre's counterpart, long-time Bloc Québécois M.P. and organizer Mario Laframboise. Fox has promised to relocate permanently to Lachute should he be successful against Laframboise, although he's starting 30 points back, based on the last election.
• Thunder Bay – Superior North, ON - Meanwhile, in a contested nomination further north on the same night, Liberals selected lawyer Yves Fricot as their candidate to take on Conservative candidate Michael Auld and first-time NDP M.P. Bruce Hyer. Fricot won on the second ballot with 1096 eligible voters, reported TBNewsWatch.com (see the comments for some local colour and background). By contrast, just 100 eligible voters determined the Conservative candidate there last month, NetNewsLedger.com pointed out.
• Ancaster – Dundas – Flamborough – Westdale, ON - Former CHCH-TV broadcaster Dan McLean was to be acclaimed the Liberal candidate August 12 as well, reported the Hamilton Spectator. This riding in the Golden Horseshoe, outside Hamilton, is currently represented by two-term Conservative M.P. David Sweet.
• Chatham-Kent – Essex, ON - Libs - City councillor Steve Pickard won the contested Liberal nomination being called "the battle of the Liberal legacies" by the Chatham Daily News on Thursday August 13, beating 2008 candidate Matt Daudlin, also the son of a former Liberal M.P. This southwestern Ontario riding is now held by two-term Conservative M.P. Dave Van Kesteren. (h/t the Liberal Scarf blog)
• Essex, ON - On Friday night, Kingsville Mayor Nelson Santos was acclaimed the new Liberal candidate in this Windor-area riding, once the preserve of the Whelan-Liberal legacy, broken for two terms by NDP M.P. Steven Langdon from 1984-1993, and now held by two-term Conservative M.P. Jeff Watson, who weighed in on whether his new opponent should continue to serve as mayor once nominated. The riding was a three-way race last time, and 2008 NDP candidate Taras Natyshak also appears set to run again, according to his Facebook page.
• Prince Edward – Hastings, ON - Also on Friday, 2008 Liberal candidate Ken Cole was acclaimed for a second run against three-term Conservative M.P. Daryl Kramp. Note that there are two Ken Cole's in this database, the other being Ken Cole the 2000 NDP candidate in Mississauga South, ON.
  
• London – Fanshawe, ON - Thanks to a recent commenter for bringing to our attention that first-time candidate and London businessman Jamal (Jim) Chahbar was acclaimed by the Conservatives as their nominee in this riding on August 14. The riding is currently held by two-term NDP M.P. Irene Mathyssen, and we earlier covered 2008 Liberal candidate Jacquie Gauthier's interest in running again here as well. I located a little political and family history about Mr. Chahbar on another blog here.
• Jeanne-Le Ber, QC - Lib - More intell from a commenter about the state of the Liberal race in this Montréal-Verdun riding, in which we first reported that unsuccessful 2008 Liberal nomination candidate, entrepreneur Marc Bruneau, was interested in running again, and later reported the news heard by one of our commenters that he might be obtaining the nomination through an appointment by the Leader. Now a commenter on the Liberal Scarf blog is claiming that Bruneau "is no longer the liberal canadidate in Jeanne Leber. Nomination cancelled." Given that the nomination meeting was scheduled for Sunday August 16, I guess it's back to the drawing board there. The riding was narrowly held by two-term Bloc Québécois M.P. Thierry St-Cyr in the last election, making it a Liberal target, but also met the threshold for a four-way race and is thus being eyed by the NDP as well, whose 2008 candidate, former Parti Vert founder Daniel Breton was seen at the mike debating environment and energy resolutions this past weekend (that's the name you were looking for on Saturday at 2:16 p.m., Kady).

OK, that's a wrap for now. Back tomorrow night with the rest of the nomination news catch-up.

Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Conservatives, Liberals

While Green Party Leader Elizabeth May is bowing out of the prospective by-election races, another party leader looking to gain entry into the House of Commons has decided to throw his name into the ring for the Nova Scotia seat of Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, NS for the forthcoming race.

Christian Heritage Party Leader Jim Hnatiuk, who hails from Nova Scotia, has previously run twice in neighbouring Kings – Hants, NS and once in South Shore – St. Margaret's, NS. He took over the party's leadership from Ron Gray in November of last year, when Gray stepped down after the last election.

The party was founded in 1987 by former members of the Social Credit movement, and has contested federal elections since 1988. Its current President is former one-term Conservative M.P. Larry Spencer (Regina – Lumsden – Lake Centre, SK).

The party also recently scored a small coup, when the leader of the Canadian Action Party Andrew Moulden, only selected this past year to replace Connie Fogel, stepped down last week to join the CHP.

In a news release issued this afternoon, Hnatiuk notes that he lives in the riding, is a retired member of the Canadian Armed Forces, and now owns the province's largest hunting and fishing store in the town of Lantz. He says that his party will not abandon fiscal and social conservatives. More on the release should be available soon at the party's website. No word yet on if or when a nomination meeting will take place, but Mr. Hnatiuk's candidacy is not filed with Elections Canada as yet. Still as it seems unlikely he'll be contested for it as National Party Leader, I'll just go ahead and add his name to the list.

Thanks to a reader for passing along this release. If you have news from the left-coast to the right-coast, or from the east or west parts of the political spectrum, let the Pundits' Guide know so we can pass it along to readers who want to follow the whole race. And then follow along @punditsguide on Twitter for all the latest.

Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, Other Party Candidates

Green Party Leader Elizabeth May, believing that a general election will be held this fall, has picked her seat, and tells the Vancouver Sun's Barbara Yaffe that she plans to run in Saanich – Gulf Islands, BC this time.

Green activists have been expecting that this seat would be her eventual choice for some time, although some favoured other seats for her. The riding boasted the Green Party's best performance in terms of vote-share under candidate Andrew Lewis in 2004, with 16.7% of the vote, but fell to 9.9% and the 9th best seat in 2006, returning above the rebate threshold to 10.5% in 2008 with Lewis running again, but former Green Party member Briony Penn running for the Liberals.

This selection appears to cap a summer of either decision-making or public relations peek-a-boo for Ms. May, who told Ontario CBC radio only last week that she was still considering running in Bruce – Grey – Owen Sound, ON, according to Susan Delacourt's blog. Nevertheless, she now tells Yaffe that she will be picking up and moving out west from Nova Scotia "almost immediately".

What it also appears to do is rule May out of the running in any by-elections that might be held this fall. She concluded based on experience from last year that by-elections can be precluded by the call of unexpected general elections, as she told the Hill Times for yesterday's edition. But of course this assumes that the government will indeed fall in the autumn sitting, an eventuality that is by no means a foregone conclusion yet either.

May also tells Barbara Yaffe that Liberal Party President Alfred Apps asked her to run for them earlier this summer, an offer she says she declined but countered with an offer to serve as the Environment Minister in a Liberal government.

She claims the party's polling indicates that the BC seat could be winnable for her, and notes that Tommy Douglas once turned to the seat to enter the House of Commons. In fact, Douglas ran in the old riding of Nanaimo-Cowichan-The Islands, which shares the Islands with Saanich-Gulf Islands but not much else: the former contained Nanaimo, Duncan, Cowichan and Chemainus, while the latter contains the Saanich peninsula and Sidney: very different demographics to say the least.

The riding is currently held by five-term Conservative M.P. Gary Lunn. I've just updated the candidate financial returns data from the last election, and see that 2008 Green Party candidate Andrew Lewis' return has still not been filed. As to be expected, Lunn and Penn both waged close to fully-funded campaigns, with Lunn spending 98% of the limit and Penn spending 90%. NDP candidate Julian West's return shows just 19% of the limit spent, virtually all of it except a few items like credit union fees paid out prior to his resignation as the NDP candidate.

Liberals in the riding have just scheduled their nomination contest for Saturday, September 12, the weekend before the House of Commons is scheduled to resume sitting on Monday September 14.

All in all, this should be a riding worth watching in the coming political season, as Ms. May's strategic decision here will have a significant influence over her future and that of her party, and may also have some influence on decisions taken by other parties in the ridings she declined to run in.

Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Greens

While I've been working on the new Party Finance module here at Pundits' Guide, and wow'ing at some new Google Earth magic over at Stephen Taylor's site, the nomination news has been piling up. So now's as good a time as any to get us caught up, starting with an important decision Green Party leader Elizabeth May seems to have made, in light of the first by-election window closing:

• Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, NS - May is telling the Hill Times this week (subscription only) that since no summer by-election has been called as yet for this vacant riding, she's out:
  

  Federal Green Party Leader Elizabeth May ... said she hoped the Prime Minister would announce byelections for vacant seats in the House of Commons, but since he has not done so yet she’s ruled that out as a possible avenue to get herself into the House of Commons and is now actively searching for a riding to run in for the next general election.
  “The moment has arrived where I have to say it’s too late for a byelection. I was hoping there might be a summer byelection in Nova Scotia in [former Ind. MP] Bill Casey’s riding, but even it were to be called tomorrow we’re in a position where it would morph into a September general election, just as happened last year,” Ms. May told The Hill Times in a phone interview last week from the Ontario riding of Bruce-Grey-Owen-Sound, where she was in town gauging reaction to her possible candidacy there.

  May names the ridings of Bruce – Grey – Owen Sound, ON, Guelph, ON and Saanich – Gulf Islands, BC as still being under active consideration for her to run in during a general election. More from the BlueGreenBlogger at the Not An Official Green Party Canada Site blog here. Meantime, the Conservatives have their CCMV candidate in place, the Liberals are having a contested nomination between Tracy Parsons and Jim Burrows, and the NDP is expected to announce its nomination plans either in the leadup to their Halifax convention, which is convening later this week, or shortly thereafter.
• Saint John, NB - The Globe and Mail's Jane Taber is reporting that Paul Zed is planning to return home to his former riding for a fundraiser with Michael Ignatieff next week and announce his intention to run for reelection there. Zed had narrowly defeated two other Conservative opponents in 2004 and 2006, narrowly lost to first-time Conservative M.P. Rodney Weston in 2008 by under 500 votes in the 14th closest race of the last election.
• Portneuf – Jacques-Cartier, QC - The Bloc Québécois candidate who nearly defeated two-term Independent conservative M.P. André Arthur in 2008 appears to be back for another try, according to le Québec Hebdo. Although he is not listed as renominated yet at the Elections Canada website (and the Bloc is pretty fastidious about that, so I'm guessing it's not formalized yet), Richard Côté was nevertheless part of the Bloc caucus' summer tour event in the Québec city event last week. Arthur was reelected by a margin of 1.5% over Côté, in the only riding the Conservative Party did not contest in the last election. Ironically, while the Conservatives bowed out to help protect Arthur who has usually voted with them in Parliament, Arthur's raw vote actually fell by 5,000 votes, while the Liberals, NDP and Bloc (in that order) saw an increase in their raw vote instead and the overall turnout dropped from 69% to 60%. An interesting case study for the proponents of strategic voting, to be sure!
• Saint-Maurice – Champlain , QC - This riding is on the list of new Québec Liberal nomination meetings recently announced (more on this below), and according to the Liberal Scarf blog Shawinigan city councillor (Ms.) France Beaulieu will be contesting the nomination on Wednesday August 26 when the meeting is to be held, along with 2008 candidate Ronald St-Onge Lynch who has apparently said on his Facebook page that if he doesn't win the nomination or get appointed a candidate by the leader, he will be running regardless as an independent. Two-term Bloc Québécois M.P. Jean-Yves Laforest currently represents the riding.
• Gatineau, QC - The race for the Liberal nomination is heating up in this western Québec riding, just across the bridge from Ottawa, reports le Droit. 2008 candidate and lawyer Michel Simard held a rally last week to announce his candidacy, claiming the support of the former Mayor, while former party national director Steve McKinnon issued a news release on the same day claiming the support of the majority of the riding executive. Liberals placed a close third in this riding last time, just behind their former M.P. now running for the NDP, Françoise Boivin, and two-term Bloc Québécois M.P. Richard Nadeau. The party is evidently interested in recouping the seat, with a third candidate reportedly set to enter the nomination race, now scheduled for September 3.
• Halton, ON - More reaction to Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff's appointment of businesswoman Deborah Gillis as the party's candidate here from the Oakville Beaver. In fact the third candidate Gary Zemlak had been greenlighted as well, and says that he's disappointed but understands that the party wants to hit its target number of women candidates, the Beaver reports. Originally from Cape Breton, Toronto businesswoman Gillis was appointed to take on another businesswoman from Toronto but formerly of Cape Breton, who also received her candidacy by appointment last time, first-time Conservative M.P. Lisa Raitt. Also running is businesswoman Amy Collard for the Green Party, which makes this riding the first one I've seen so far with all (business-) women candidates. Meantime, the Hill Times erroneously reported this morning (subscription only) that Ignatieff had appointed 4 women candidates, but that's a misreading of the news release. In fact, Gillis was the only appointee; two others were already acclaimed by their riding associations, while Marjorie Black is expected to be acclaimed in Newmarket – Aurora, ON on August 12.
• Oakville, ON - Just south of Halton, there are now 4 candidates in the running for the Liberal nomination in this riding, currently held by first-time Conservative M.P. Terence Young, according to the Oakville Beaver. We already reported that Connie Laurin-Bowie was running, and she is now being joined by two city councillors, Max Khan and Mary Chapin, and local businesswoman Darla Campbell. Young defeated former long-time Liberal M.P. Bonnie Brown in 2008 on his second try, having narrowly lost to her in 2006. Brown won the riding formerly held by Conservative M.P. Otto Jelinek in 1993 with fewer votes than the combined Reform Party and Progressive Conservative parties' support combined, and held the seat through four further elections. This will be the kind of seat to watch to see whether the Liberals can regain their former position in Ontario in spite of a united conservative political party. Thanks to a reader for passing along this clipping.
• Thunder Bay – Superior North, ON - I earlier erroneously reported the Liberal nomination meeting here as occurring tomorrow (August 11), but in fact it is scheduled for August 12 according to NetNewsLedger.com. As reported here several times, contesting it will be Don McArthur, Yves Fricot, and Joe Virdiramo. Michael Auld recently won a very closely contested Conservative nomination meeting on a coin toss. The riding is currently held by first-time NDP M.P. Bruce Hyer.
• Winnipeg South, MB - In a story this past weekend Winnipeg Free Press columnist (and a former Carleton University contemporary of mine) Dan Lett ran down the brewing race in this riding, and the nomination candidacy of former Manitoba Clean Environment Commission chair and current CEO of the International Centre for Infectious Diseases, Terry Duguid (which we first reported here last month). This morning, Duguid made it official, reports Mia Rabson, with a nomination meeting expected sometime in September. The riding is currently represented by two-term Conservative M.P. Rod Bruinooge, who narrowly defeated former Liberal M.P. Reg Alcock in 2006 by just 111 votes, but held the seat more decisively last time around. Duguid has run federally twice before in Kildonan – St. Paul, MB. Thanks to a reader for sending this last clipping along.
• Dauphin – Swan River – Marquette, MB - The Free Press would have also had a head start reporting this story, since one of their columnists, conservationist Robert Sopuck, will be seeking the Conservative nomination in this riding, about to be vacated by retiring Conservative M.P. Inky Mark. Sopuck may be joined in a nomination race by riding president Wayne Mathison. Mark first won the previous incarnation of this riding in a very tight four-way race, but was returned with over 60% of the vote on his last run for office. So far, the Green Party has renominated its 2006-08 candidate Kate Storey, but no other parties have selected their candidates.
• Saskatoon – Rosetown – Biggar, SK - We earlier reported that two-time NDP candidate Nettie Wiebe was set to give it one more shot in the forthcoming election, and now a reader writes to confirm that the riding association has set Wednesday, September 9 for their nomination meeting and Wiebe is the only declared candidate to this point. She came within 1% of the vote of besting first-time Conservative M.P. Kelly Block in the race to replace retiring Conservative M.P. Carol Skelton last time, in a sharply divided urban-vs-rural contest.
• Saskatoon – Humboldt, SK - In the neighbouring riding, which has gone from a tight four-way race in 2004 to a cakewalk for three-time Conservative M.P. Brad Trost, as many as three candidates are now vying for the NDP nomination to take him on in 2008 the next election (sorry, working too late there!), with a meeting pencilled in for Thursday, September 10. Apparently confirmed as running are recent U Sask grad Scott Stelmaschuk and community activist Denise Kouri, while 2008 candidate Scott Ruston apparently hasn't decided whether to enter the race as yet, but reportedly will once the meeting date is locked down. Thanks again to the reader for passing this along as well.
• Langley, BC - Another reader passed along a link to the Liberal nomination meeting notice for this riding on Tuesday, August 18, where the indispensible Langley Politics blog is confirming (as we first reported back in January in the very first Nomination News update of the current election cycle) that Rebecca Darnell will be running, and appears uncontested to date. The riding is currently held by three-term Conservative M.P. Mark Warawa, who has won it handily on each outing.
• Saanich – Gulf Islands, BC - Another Liberal nomination meeting date has now been confirmed as well for Saturday, September 12, this time the contested race we've reported on here before between Kit Spence and Renée Hetherington. The riding boasts one of the more interesting storylines of the last election, including more registered third party advertisers than any other single riding in the country, three candidates who at one time were all members of the Green Party and at one point proposed to hold a Shun-Lunn run-off race prior to the campaign, one of whom was later outed for some activities in his past and shunned by his own party, but whose resignation as a candidate occurred too late for his name to be withdrawn from the ballot, and allegedly on whose behalf some robo-calling was done late in the campaign. The spoof robo-calling incident and some questions about the third party spending reports were raised with the Commissioner of Canada Elections by the president of the Liberal riding association, and the reply he received from Elections Canada is, interestingly, now posted on the riding's website (warning, large PDF). The riding could continue to be interesting, should Green Party Leader Elizabeth May in fact decide to take the plunge here next time, as she mused to the Hill Times above.
• Nanaimo – Cowichan, BC - Thanks to a reader for passing along this brief from the Nanaimo Daily News announcing the contested Conservative nomination meeting scheduled for August 29 between Duncan chiropractor Martin Baker and North Cowichan city councillor, John Koury. More here from the Cowichan News Leader and Pictorial, and the Cowichan Valley Citizen. 2008 Conservative candidate and former M.P. Reed Elley is now the riding president, and does not appear to be interested in running again. The riding is currently represented by two-term NDP M.P. Jean Crowder, and a contested Liberal nomination is also underway but with no meeting date set as yet.

OK, that's a wrap on the riding-specific news. As mentioned above, the Liberals have announced a new series of nomination meetings in Québec, all of which have now been added to the growing list of Nomination Meetings in the left-hand column, which should bring them to 54 officially nominated candidates by the time the House resumes sitting on September 14. We should also start to be seeing a new list of Bloc Québécois nomination meetings, which were promised by Gilles Duceppe and his organizer Mario Laframboise earlier this summer, while the NDP appears to be working on its next tier target ridings, and a few first-time incumbents for their earliest meetings. The Conservative process appears to be a lot more low-key, in many cases being completed by riding association candidate search committees who acclaim a candidate after a search process concludes. I've just noticed that the Green Party has added a number of new candidates to their website list, but due to the late hour I'll have to include them in the next update.

If you have nomination news to share, why not jot me a note so I can include it in the next nomination news update. And join follow the Pundits' Guide on Twitter for the latest.

Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Bloc Québécois, Conservatives, Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, Greens, Liberals, NDP, Retiring Incumbents

I knew it would not take much time for the very good programmers out there to start to make some really good use of the recently-released Elections Canada polling division shape files, and Conservative blogger Stephen Taylor has demonstrated he's no slouch in the mapping wow department.

He has taken the polling division results and geographic information from the shape files and built an application for Google Earth, demo'ed in a YouTube HD video here. He's also planning to make the information available as an API (that's programming lingo for "shareable to other programmers").

Hats off to Taylor for a beautiful demo and a very solid contribution. I'll be adding some Google Maps functionality to the Pundits' Guide soon myself, but Taylor has definitely set the standard here. Bravo Stephen!

Labels: Data Analysis, Elections Canada Data

For some time I've been collecting and organizing the party financial data for inclusion in a systematic way into the Pundits' Guide database. Now, I've finally had enough uninterrupted time to assemble it into its own module. Presenting, for your interest and amusement: the first version of the "Browse Finance$" page.

Here are some things to keep in mind:

• Annual contribution data is available from 2000 to 2008 at present. Of course, the 2009 data won't be available until around this time next year.
• Quarterly contribution data is available from 2005 (when its collection was first mandated) forward, on its own tab.
• You can drill down by Party or Year, or any combination of both, on either tab. The tables and charts will redraw themselves appropriately.
• Remember that there were a number of rule changes along the way, so that prior to 2004 contributions came from Individuals, Corporations, Labour organizations, and a variety of Other changing categories as well that I've lumped in together. Post-2004 only Individuals could contribute to federal political parties.
• Most bars in the charts break down contributions by donation size as well. Technically there are 3 categories: (i) anonymous contributions of <= $25/$20 (it used to be $25, but later became $20), (ii) contributions of <= $200 where the donor is known to the party, but their names are not reported to Elections Canada, (iii) named contributors of > $200 over the year, whose names must be reported. In some older data, the donation size is not always reported alongside the donor category by Elections Canada in their datasets (the case for 2000 here). So the convention I followed was that I lumped (i) and (ii) together in the '$200 and under' category on the charts, and I lumped the 'size unknown' in with the 'over $200' category. I find it nice to always see the proportion of funds coming from these two general groupings.
• In every table, you will find little Elections Canada logos, which are links that point to the parties' annual or quarterly reports as appropriate, so you can jump directly there to consult the original data (and proofread my work, if you feel up to it). I find this makes it a lot easier to find the return I want, rather than navigating through their search engines.
• All the data was manually entered by me from returns available on the Elections Canada website, where it is only available in "as submitted" form (none of it is "as reviewed" there at all, yet).
  

As always, there's more to come on this front, but with this module and core dataset in place it should be easier to add quarterly reports in future, and to add more data to the module as well (such as the public subsidies, net transfers in and out of the federal party, and the parties' financial statements). I'll also be providing some additional metrics and analysis in the associated pundit queries in due course.

I hope you like this new page at the Pundits' Guide. Please feel free to provide feedback in the comments section or to me directly by email. And take a second to pick one or two quarterly or annual returns and proofread my data entry work, to help other readers of the Guide.

Labels: Data Analysis, Party Finance

It appears that Elections Canada has finally finished reviewing the candidate spending reports from the 2006 election, and has now posted the list of candidate 2006 rebates in the Election Finance section of its website.

Regular readers of the Pundits' Guide will recall that four candidates overspent the limit in 2006 (2 Liberals and 2 Conservatives), but all 4 of them have been issued rebates according to this list. Only one so far has signed a Gazette'd compliance agreement with the Commissioner of Canada Elections (who is responsible for enforcing those provisions of the Elections Act).

Meanwhile, it also looks like the list of 2004 rebates is posted there now too, along with the list from the 2005 by-elections (see first drop-down): which means another data entry project for yours truly in her spare time. You'll know when I'm done because the totals will appear under the column "Cand $ Rebate" in the summary table at the top of a party's profile on the "Browse Parties" page, such as this one for the Liberals, this one for the Conservatives, or this one for the NDP. By the way, anything that appears there now for 2008 is a typo, and I'll be fixing that right away (probably a candidate's personal expense that got pasted into the wrong field by me).

Labels: Election Expenses, Election Finance

The democraticSpace blog has returned to cyberspace. Author Greg Morrow pens a couple of posts this morning, explaining where he's been, and reviewing the debate on the New in the New Democratic Party.

Welcome back!

I'm sorry to rather directly disagree with a well-regarded member of the Press Gallery, but this story on the 2nd quarter fundraising reports by the registered parties is just wrong:

The federal Tories slid to second place in party contributions for the second quarter of 2009 — which might help explain the recent election talk of Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff.

Returns filed with Elections Canada show that for the three-month period to the end of June, the Conservatives attracted $3,957,662 in contributions, ahead of their take for the same period last year, which was about $3.5 million.

Unfortunately the reporter in question misunderstands the party reports, and cites the totals for central fundraising + intra-party transfers from riding associations. This is like comparing apples to oranges; like adding the change you receive when purchasing an item with cash, to your salary, and then summing them together as your income.

The parties' quarterly reports only require the reporting of transfers from riding associations INTO the central party coffers, but alas do not report on the transfers the other way (i.e., from the central party OUT TO the ridings), which are only reported on at the end of the year. The correct figure to cite might be NET transfers or even the total of central party + riding fundraising. But including transfers in only one direction is misleading, and particularly so in the post-election period where loans, advances, rebates and other accounting issues between central parties and ridings are being settled out.

Thus, counting only the political contributions, the Conservatives are slightly ahead of the Liberals. Including the riding transfers, the Liberals are ahead of the Conservatives, but this total doesn't signify much more than the total amount of different subtotals on the quarterly reports.

In any event, this reporter was not the only one to make the mistake, as a similar error was made earlier this past weekend on the CBC TV Bureau "Political Bytes" blog. However, others who should know better are already tweeting the erroneous information around. Thanks to a reader for drawing the clipping to my attention.

In the very near future, readers of the Pundits' Guide will have a much easier reference on party finance to consult, but until then just remember: you can't add fundraising numbers together with intra-party transfers for a given quarter and claim that one party is ahead of another and have it mean anything significant.

Labels: Party Finance

I'm on cottage-time here, where everything moves a little more slowly in the nomination news department. However, as things have really piled up and a few significant nominations have occurred over the past few days, it's time for me to smarten up and get with it; starting with the most recent nominations in the prospective by-election seats:

• Hochelaga, QC - The NDP did, as expected, renominate their 2008 candidate Jean-Claude Rocheleau here on Monday. Rocheleau is the president of the east island refinery workers' local of the CEP, and embodies the NDP's continuing efforts to encroach on the Bloc Québecois' support in the Québec labour movement. The riding is currently represented by long-time Bloc M.P. Réal Ménard, who has announced that he will be resigning effective Wednesday September 16 (the first caucus meeting of the fall sitting of Parliament), in order to run for Montréal city council in the municipal elections taking place this November 1. A political scientist, Ménard has won the riding handily since 1993 when he defeated one-term Conservative M.P. Alan Koury (who himself replaced one-term Conservative M.P. Edouard Désrosiers in 1988). Prior to 1984 the riding was represented by then-Liberal M.P. (and current Liberal Senator) Serge Joyal.
• New Westminster – Coquitlam, BC - Ken Beck Lee won the contested Liberal nomination over Gerry Lenoski here last night, according to the LeftCoast.ca blog. Curiously (well to me, anyway), voting was conducted without the benefit of candidate speeches (although as my partner has pointed out to me before, politicos like political speeches a LOT more than pretty much the rest of the voting public, so what do I know). Lee is a civil engineer and member of the Korean Cultural Heritage Society of Canada, and is a first-time candidate for the Liberal Party. The BC federal Liberal association had earlier set up a byelectionbc.ca website, with biographies of both candidates. More background here from the Burnaby Politics blog, where a commenter claims that Lee had signed up 1000 members, although a reader tells me that there were around 380 ballots cast last night. The riding was vacated by three-term NDP M.P. Dawn Black (one of them from 1988-1993, not yet in this database), who stepped down to run provincially in the spring, after defeating Korean-Canadian Conservative candidate (and now-Senator) Yonah Martin in the last general election. Already nominated are the NDP's Fin Donnelly, Rebecca Helps for the Green Party, and most recently Diana Dilworth for the Conservatives.
• Windsor – Tecumseh, ON - Thanks to a reader for writing to confirm that the Conservative riding association here renominated Ms. Ghanam by acclamation last June 5, after conducting their candidate search process in May. Ms. Ghanam is a management consultant and lecturer in the business school at the University of Windsor. She captured second place in 2008 against the NDP's four-term M.P. Joe Comartin, moving ahead of the Liberals in this riding once held by the late Liberal M.P. Shaughnessy Cohen.
• Markham – Unionville, ON - Long-time Markham city councillor Gordon Landon was acclaimed last Thursday as the Conservative candidate in this riding north of Toronto, the Georgina Advocate reports. The first-time federal candidate will be facing four-term Liberal M.P. John McCallum, who has won the riding handily since the 2000 election, when he replaced the then-lone Ontario Progressive Conservative M.P. Jim Jones.
  
• Halton, ON - Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff has appointed businesswoman Deborah Gillis as his candidate here, according to a weekend Liberal news release, and interestingly has done so over the heads of two green-lighted candidates (Air Canada pilot Rohit Dhamija and George Brown College VOIP professor Sheref El Sabawy) and one other prospective candidate (former provincial Liberal candidate Gary Zemlak), as noted on the Liberal Scarf blog citing a recent story from the Oakville Beaver. As blogger Will Norman observes: "Gillis was mentioned nowhere in the article, which was written on July 31st .... The article contains a quote by the riding President that is very interesting in light of Gillis being appointed: 'Riding association president Steve Savage said there is no hurry to settle on a candidate as there is no election on the horizon'. Evidently Ignatieff must see at least the shape of an election on the horizon, unless he wouldn't have appointed a candidate (which I believe is the first time Ignatieff has used the leader's power to appoint, but I might be mistaken.)". I haven't seen any other reports of Mr. Ignatieff appointing candidates either, and believe Mr. Norman is correct in that observation. Meanwhile, former Conservative-turned-Liberal Halton M.P. Garth Turner was not amongst Liberal candidates seeking to be green-lighted according to Ontario Federal Liberal executive director Judi Longfield, as quoted in the Oakville Beaver story, but blogger Norman believes that the Dufferin – Caledon, ON rumour we reported on earlier for Turner might still be viable.
  
• Newmarket – Aurora, ON - The same Liberal news release touted other women candidates including lawyer and King Township Mayor Margaret Black who it says will be acclaimed on August 12 in this riding north of Toronto. As pointed out by the Liberal Scarf, this means that nomination candidate and Newmarket councillor Chris Emanuel must have dropped out of the race quite recently, as all evidence pointed to his continuing to run as of when the release was issued. We earlier reported on his candidacy here, along with the withdrawal of 2008 Liberal candidate Tim Jones in favour of endorsing Ms. Black. A bit more here from the King Township Sentinel. The riding is currently held by first-time Conservative M.P. Lois Brown, who won it on the retirement from politics of Conservative-turned-Liberal M.P. Belinda Stronach.

The Monday Liberal news release announced four Ontario women candidates in total, including two already reported here some time ago (Christine Innes in Trinity – Spadina, ON and Kimberley Love in Bruce – Grey – Owen Sound, ON). The Toronto Star's Susan Delacourt is also reporting from cottage country on her blog that Green Party Elizabeth May continues to muse on her chances of running in the latter riding as well. By the way, I need to track down the correct spelling of Ms. Love's first name, as the Liberal Party spelled it "ey", while the Meaford Express story from three weeks ago just had it as "y". If anyone can clarify, please drop me a line.

Besides Newmarket – Aurora, ON as mentioned above, a number of other Ontario Liberal nomination meetings have recently been announced on that PTA's website, namely:

• Tue 11 Aug - Thunder Bay – Superior North, ON - 3 candidates contesting (Don McArthur, Yves Fricot, Joe Virdiramo)
  
• Wed 12 Aug - Ancaster – Dundas – Flamborough – Westdale, ON - former CHCH-TV anchor Dan McLean and ?former 2008 candidate Arlene MacFarlane-VanderBeek?
  
• Thu 13 Aug - Chatham-Kent – Essex, ON - a contest pitting the sons of 2 former Liberal MPs: Matt Daudlin and Steve Pickard
  
• Fri 14 Aug - Essex, ON - no information (if you can help, jot me a note)
  

OK, now on to other nomination news:

• Gaspésie – Îles-de-la-Madeleine, QC - Another good catch by the Liberal Scarf blog, who came across a clipping from Le Soleil about Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff's recent trip to the Gaspésie with returning candidate Nancy Charest of neighbouring Haute-Gaspésie – La Mitis – Matane – Matapédia, QC, which also reported Quebec lieutenant Denis Coderre's preference for the return of 2008 Liberal candidate Denis Gauvreau in this riding currently held by two-term Bloc Québécois M.P. Raynald Blais. Gauvreau moved his party back into second-place last time, past former Progressive Conservative M.P. and Conservative candidate Darryl L. Gray.
  
• Richmond – Arthabaska, QC - From La Nouvelle / L'Union in Victoriaville, we learn that Louis Bérubé, the business development manager for the Caisse populaire in l'Érable, will be running for the Liberal nomination here, and has the support of 2008 candidate Gwyneth Helen Grant. Liberal Québec lieutenant Denis Coderre will be attending the nomination meeting next Monday, August 10. The riding is currently held by three-term Bloc Québécois M.P. André Bellavance.
• Ottawa Centre, ON - The NDP has scheduled its nomination meeting here for Monday, September 28. Two-term incumbent NDP M.P. Paul Dewar is expected to run once again. Meantime the Liberal nomination race appears to be down to Scott Bradley and Janet Yale, although no meeting date has been set there yet. The Greens already have 2008 candidate Jennifer Hunter back in place for the next election, and no names or plans have yet surfaced from the Conservatives.
  
• Northumberland – Quinte West, ON - A third candidate has decided to enter the contested Liberal nomination race in this eastern Ontario riding, reports NorthumberlandToday.com. The Mayor of Brighton, (Ms.) Chris Herrington, will be joining Kim Rudd and Andrew McFadyen (previously reported on here). No meeting date has been set to my knowledge. The riding is currently held by two-term Conservative M.P. Rick Norlock, and the Green Party has already nominated its candidate Stan Grizzle.
  
• Welland, ON - Thanks for a reader for pointing out this clipping from the Welland Tribune running down the parties' election preparations in this Niagara-region riding, and reporting the Conservative nomination meeting as set for Thursday, September 17. 2008 candidate Alfred Kiers (who previously ran under the Christian Heritage Party banner in neighbouring Erie – Lincoln, ON in 1997) is apparently set to run for the Conservative nomination once again, but may yet be joined by several others in a contest. Area Liberals have already renominated former long-time M.P. John Maloney. The riding is currently represented by first-time NDP M.P. Malcolm Allen who defeated Maloney in the 2nd closest 3-way race of last fall's general election.
• Esquimalt – Juan de Fuca, BC - According to CFAX-1070AM, area Greens have now opened up nominations in this riding, part of whose provincial equivalent was recently contested by their provincial leader Jane Sterk in the last B.C. election. The riding is currently held by long-time M.P. Keith Martin for the Liberals. Conservatives recently renominated their 2008 candidate Troy deSouza as well. The NDP has yet to pick a candidate in this riding, once held for a term by former NDP premier Dave Barrett, but usually runs strongly as well here, in a riding that's seen more than its share of close 3-way races.
  

In other Green Party nomination news, a reader writes to say that the party had screened 114 candidates by July 31, most in ridings that already have electoral district associations (EDAs) in place.

OK, I think that covers everything for now. If you have nomination news I missed (or sent me any nomination news I forgot to cover, for which I apologize in advance), please do send a note along so I can include it in the next update. Then follow along on Twitter for the latest counts and updates.

Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Conservatives, Greens, Hochelaga, Liberals, NDP, New Westminster – Coquitlam

You'll recall that, further to a motion adopted by the House on the Liberals' last Opposition Day motion in June, the Commons is scheduled to return on Monday, September 14, 2009.

In order to have a by-election held the previous Tuesday, September 8 (the day after Labour Day), it would have had to be called over the weekend.

So, it now seems clear that the three vacant seats won't be filled before Parliament returns, leading us to conclude that the Prime Minister may either be waiting to call them in such a way that the by-election campaigns are on-going during the next confidence vote, or that he is waiting for Hochelaga to become vacant on Wednesday September 16 and call all four at once.

Only New Westminster – Coquitlam, BC has all 4 major party candidates in place, the Liberals selecting theirs yesterday. Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, NS has its Conservative candidate, a Liberal contest under way, and presumably an NDP announcement designed to coincide with their convention down that way soon, plus the possibly that Green Party Leader Elizabeth May could yet enter the race. No-one is yet nominated in Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, QC. And only the NDP has its candidate in place in Hochelaga, QC (see forthcoming nomination news update).

Labels: Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, Hochelaga, Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, New Westminster – Coquitlam, Vacant Seats