[UPDATE: Thanks to a commenter for pointing out my error in calculating the last row of the second table. The overall averages make a lot more sense now, don't they!]

The Liberals have posted their strongest 2nd quarter fundraising totals in years, nearly matching the Conservative Party totals for the months of April, May and June. The Bloc Québécois also reported its strongest 2nd quarter figures since 2005. The Conservatives, NDP and Greens are all roughly in line with recent years' 2nd quarter performance, although the NDP had suffered a well-below average first quarter due to its decision to withdraw from fundraising in advance of provincial elections and leadership contests, and is thus down on the cumulative totals for the year.

The Liberals' second quarter includes funds raised at some large dinners, including the April 1 dinner in Toronto, the Montréal dinner several weeks later, and the May convention whose fees must be reported as political contributions. Thus, when you look at the breakdown by contribution range, Liberals raised far more money than the Conservative Party in the category of contributions over $200 ($3.08M vs. $1.25M), but significantly less in the $200 and under category ($791K vs. $2.7M, or less than a third). In fact it remains the only party to draw most of its contributions from large donors, although Liberals have seen a year-over-year improvement in 2nd quarter fundraising in the small donor category percentage-wise as well.

Indeed, with the average Liberal contribution in the over $200 category at $700, many of these donors are close to "tapped out" in terms of their contribution room for the rest of the year, meaning that fundraising in the second half of the year will have to focus on developing new donors. The extent to which they can do that will determine the extent to which they can keep up their much-vaunted new fundraising capacity.

Quarterly Fundraising as reported to Elections Canada, by Party, 2005 to today

	Lib	NDP	Grn	BQ	Cons
2009-Q2	3878113.54	711269.13	192350.47	68969.94	3957662.18
2009-Q1	1831843.33	595611.16	211268.53	122842.03	4361540.04
2008-Q4	2286751.1	1745344.87	546185.59	189190.75	6343349.25
2008-Q3	1855252.99	1889805.02	660223.38	450519.83	6367676.44
2008-Q2	912378.43	711637.28	213922	36698.33	3525352.31
2008-Q1	846129.37	1119647.67	210962.82	37006.31	4954550.22
2007-Q4	1944946.11	1424524.23	414274.84	336384.8	4892921.63
2007-Q3	793834.9	594479.68	218505.14	31520.06	3152985.38
2007-Q2	1268043.45	722760.09	197373.82	27928.8	3768122.62
2007-Q1	531141.12	1235421.63	154451.5	34227.82	5176736.3
2006-Q4	6454630.5	1328466.51	370791.35	338467.42	5640461.79
2006-Q3	867329.87	795925.34	85609.52	15568.3	3697689
2006-Q2	1192414.27	734642.42	193808.12	27566.96	4018952
2006-Q1	1328515.12	1113563.26	125782.89	147855.66	5371354
2005-Q4	3770222.09	2716054.91	216016.34	438615.56	7042441
2005-Q3	1062332.13	720652.49	47418.79	96221.91	3247131
2005-Q2	1434284.53	1134527.86	102181.06	76131.35	4977497
2005-Q1	1702974.83	559352.48	44518.4	124537.73	2582647

Here are the breakdowns by donor category:

Contribution Amounts, Counts and Average Contribution Size, by Party and Donor Category, 2009-Q2

2009 - Q2	Lib	NDP	Grn	BQ	Cons
$ TOT num $ avg	3878113.54 19487 $767.69 $199.01	711269.13 11171 $407.04 $63.67	192350.47 2926 $484.75 $65.74	68969.94 908 $449.50 $75.96	3957662.18 35217 $540.58 $112.38
$ < $20 num $ avg	3998.09 309 $12.94	350.00 200 $1.75	220.59 14 $15.76	--	35.00 3 $11.67
$ <= $200 num $ avg	790679.68 14781 $53.49	551420.82 10519 $52.42	131874.84 2769 $47.63	48129.94 855 $56.29	2704595.04 32401 $83.47
$ > $200 num $ avg	3083435.77 4397 $701.26	159498.31 452 $352.87	60255.04 143 $421.36	20840.00 53 $393.21	1253032.14 2813 $445.44

Labels: Party Finance

A few updates this evening, and one little oopsie. It seems I mixed up my notes, and listed the September 10 nomination meetings in Nickel Belt and Sudbury in orange but saying Lib, and then carried that error over to my last blogpost about the contested Liberal nomination in Sudbury, ON.

So, the Liberal nomination meeting in Sudbury is *NOT* scheduled for September 10 (or at least if it is, I haven't been notified of that). However, the NDP nomination meeting in Sudbury *HAS* been scheduled for September 10. Please accept my apologies for any inconvenience this error may have caused, and I'm correcting the earlier blogpost as well.

OK, onto the new items: some new Green Party nominations have shown up in the Elections Canada nominations database:

• Pickering – Scarborough East, ON - Greens in this riding located east of Toronto picked a new candidate, technology sales and marketing consultant Kevin M. Smith, by acclamation at their meeting on June 25. The riding is currently held by six-term Liberal M.P. Dan McTeague, who has won handily since 1993.
• Don Valley West, ON - Returning for a second try in this north Toronto riding is Georgina Wilcock, who ran for the Green Party here in the aborted by-election last year and the general election that superceded it. She was nominated by acclamation on July 14. The riding is currently represented by first-time Liberal M.P. Rob Oliphant, who took it by a margin of 5.5% over Conservative candidate John Carmichael. Carmichael himself is also apparently renominated for a third run, but I'm still trying to track down the date and other details.
• Palliser, SK - A date has now been for the NDP nomination in this Saskatchewan riding encompassing southwest Regina, Moose Jaw and surrounding rural areas. So far confirmed as running is lawyer Noah Evanchuk, who appears to be inheriting some of the organization of recent provincial leadership candidate Ryan Meili. The meeting will be held in Moose Jaw on Saturday, September 19. The riding was won by first-time Conservative M.P. Ray Boughen last time in a battle of former mayors of Moose Jaw, over the NDP's Don Mitchell, to replace the late Conservative M.P. Dave Batters.
  

That's it for tonight, but if you have other news to share, get in touch and I'll include it in the next update.

Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Greens, Liberals, NDP

There's been a dearth of nomination news from the east coast lately, and I'm not sure why, although I suspect most folks in Nova Scotia may be tuckered out from the 6 federal and 5 provincial general elections they've had in the last 10 years and would like a summer off thank you very much. Well, except in:

• Halifax, NS - Where, as we reported here earlier, there is a contested Liberal nomination going on between Stan Kutcher and Chris Crowell. Now a date has been set for the nomination meeting on Tuesday September 22. The riding is currently held by first-time NDP M.P. Megan Leslie, who will be across the country in Alberta the night before speaking at the nomination of Linda Duncan in Edmonton – Strathcona, AB.*
• Sudbury, ON - A little under a fortnight earlier in northern Ontario, 3 (or more?) Liberal candidates will be duking it out for the right to take on first-time NDP M.P. Glenn Thibeault. Facing off will be (as reported here earlier) Gary Holman and Janet Gasparini, who are now being joined by lawyer Carol Hartman, according to a clipping from the Sudbury Star found by Liberal nominations blogger the Liberal Scarf. Other candidates that we've reported here before include lawyer Gerry Guimond and Le Voyageur publisher Rejean Grenier, although I am now unclear if they remain in the race. The meeting is scheduled for Thursday September 10. [UPDATE: Uh, no it's not. That's the NDP meeting; the Liberal meeting has not been scheduled yet that I'm aware of.]. The Green Party earlier resolved a contested nomination here when one candidate withdrew in favour of the other, leaving Frederick Twilley as their candidate for the next election.
• Eglinton – Lawrence, ON - Thanks to a source for confirming the renomination of 2008 Conservative candidate Joe Oliver by acclamation on May 15 in this north Toronto riding, which is currently represented by long-time Liberal M.P. Joe Volpe. Volpe is one of 7 Liberal MP's first elected in 1988. We earlier blogged Oliver's bid for renomination and ran down the riding's history here.
  

* (Yes, it is scaring me how much of this trivial information I am now carrying around in my head. Definitely time to be heading out to the cottage for two weeks! I'll still be on email though, so keep those nomination news emails coming, and stay tuned @punditsguide on Twitter for updates.)

Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Conservatives, Liberals

After pre-announcing their second quarter fund-raising totals (twice), the Liberals are now re-announcing them in advance of their return being available on the Elections Canada website.

Liberal National Director Rocco Rossi "exclusively" tweeted the results, which were predictably retweeted, and then picked up late in the day by the Globe and Mail, who apparently forgot to check whether the figures had ever been announced before.

They were; a month ago when the other imminent story was going to be the release of the party's 2008 financial statements (which, in any event, were not nearly as bad as some had earlier predicted). I don't think I've ever seen so much public relations attention to party or election finance data releases.

Anyways, as soon as the actual 2nd quarter returns are posted at Elections Canada (only the Bloc's submission is currently available), I'll be running down the full details here. Meanwhile, for a comprehensive collection of party finance blogposts at the Pundits' Guide, you can click on the Party Finance label on this or any other post to review all the posts so-tagged.

Labels: Liberals, Party Finance

I've just been watching an interesting series of web video tutorials on the current state of Javascript, the DOM and Ajax for a project I'm working on, in which the lecturer says "web time used to be fast, but now it's slow". No kidding. I stop for a day to do something else and then fall drastically behind on the nomination news. Which makes the news from here slow, but the expectations for speed high. Sorry about that folks; here's all the latest now:

• Joliette, QC - Thanks to the Liberal Scarf blog we learn that 2008 candidate Suzie St-Onge was acclaimed at the Liberal nomination meeting Tuesday night. The riding is currently held by Bloc Québécois House Leader Pierre Paquette, who has won it handily 4 times since the 2000 election. Ms. St-Onge placed third in 2008, but did improve on the vote share of her predecessor in 2006.
• Ottawa Centre, ON - The word is now that Isabel Metcalfe will not be running for the Liberal nomination here, setting up a two-way race between Scott Bradley and Janet Yale for an as-yet unscheduled nomination contest. The riding is currently represented by two-term NDP M.P. Paul Dewar. Sorry that it seems to get disproportionate attention in this blog, but being as it's where I live I'm privy to a lot more rumours to report. And naturally, being the riding that contains Parliament Hill, the place is crawling with politicos and journalists who live and work here and generate an above-average volume of rumours, such as another one that surfaced from the Conservative election school conference yesterday that John Baird might not run again; which seems unlikely to me, but then maybe he's planning to run for Mayor ... a job that could be opening up here soon. (h/t again to the Liberal Scarf, who should nevertheless not be held responsible for the very last piece of completely idle speculation on my part)
  
• Windsor West, ON - Lisa K. Lumley was acclaimed by the Windsor West Conservative candidate search committee on or about July 7 is my information now, and I've entered her into the database accordingly. I'm still trying to confirm a date on Denise Ghanam in neighouring Windsor – Tecumseh, ON but someone is working on this for us. Also, I have emails out on the two north Toronto Conservative candidates Joe Oliver in Eglinton – Lawrence, ON and John Carmichael in Don Valley West, ON, looking to confirm whether they've actually been renominated and if so on what date and were they contested, so if you can help out on any of these, please do get in touch.
• York – Simcoe, ON - Liberal nominations are now open in this central Ontario riding, currently held by three-term Conservative M.P. Peter Van Loan, according to the King Township Sentinel. Already nominated are Van Loan and Vicki Gunn for the Christian Heritage Party.
  
• Algoma – Manitoulin – Kapuskasing, ON - A whopping 4 Liberal candidates are now in the running for the nomination up here, which we learn thanks to a commenter on an earlier blogpost here (the ubiquitous Liberal Scarf once again). Joe Chapman, a federal Crown Attorney and former Mayor of Northeastern Manitoulin and the Islands (NEMI), is joining the Wawa Chief Accounting Officer Chris Wray, François Cloutier, a provincial public servant in the Ministry of Attorney-General and small business owner, and Marc Dupuis who is a VP of the Nord-Aski Regional Economic Development Corporation and a Hearst city councillor. in the race to represent the party of former riding M.P. Lestor B. Pearson. The winner will take on first-time NDP M.P. Carol Hughes. No date appears to have been set for the meeting as yet.
• Edmonton East, AB - As expected, and indeed as reported here quite some time ago, New Democrats renominated their former provincial leader and 2008 candidate Ray Martin last night, with Leader Jack Layton in attendance. The riding is currently held by long-time Conservative M.P. Peter Goldring, who was one of the government caucus members publicly advocating for incumbents to have their nominations protected last March, but whose own potential retirement I keep seeing referred to but never sourced. He was first elected in 1997, the year Ray Martin also first ran federally. See my earlier blogpost for a complete run-down on the riding.
• Edmonton Centre, AB - Again as expected, and at the same meeting even, the NDP officially welcomed first-time candidate Lewis Cardinal who won the party's nomination here by acclamation. I've received three separate emails about this one in the last 24 hours, so it seems people want to ensure you know about it! Meanwhile, the Liberal party acclaimed its candidate on Monday night, lawyer and former aide to Anne McLellan Mary MacDonald. The riding is currently held by two-term Conservative M.P. Laurie Hawn, and I've given a rundown of its history here earlier.
• New Westminster – Coquitlam, BC - I think I'm breaking the news here that the Liberal nomination meeting has now been scheduled for Tuesday, August 4. Running are Gerry Lenoski (as first reported here back in June) and also apparently Ken Beck Lee an engineer from Surrey, who is also the president of the Korean Cultural Heritage Society of Canada. Apparently not running after all is Port Moody Mayor Joe Trasolini. The TriCity News had a report yesterday on the municipal by-election implications of the federal by-election race, but didn't have the date or names for the Liberal meeting yet. The NDP has already picked Coquitlam councillor Fin Donnelly in a contested nomination late last month, while the Conservatives chose Port Moody councillor Diana Dilworth in a contest this past weekend. The Green Party has acclaimed new candidate Rebecca Helps. I'm told that over half the riding is comprised of Coquitlam, 15% is in Port Moody, with the remainder in New Westminster.
• Esquimalt – Juan de Fuca, BC - It's official. An entry in the Elections Canada database now confirms that Troy deSouza was renominated by acclamation on June 19, 2009. This will be his third try as Conservative candidate in this riding currently held by long-time Liberal M.P. Keith Martin, and usually hotly contested by three or more parties. I gave the full rundown in my last blogpost here.

Lewis Cardinal joins the growing list of nominated aboriginal candidates (4 Conservative, 1 Liberal, 2 NDP) which I'll start to keep track of in a new list as soon as I get a second to compile it.

In another update to an earlier blogpost, we learn from Manon Cornellier's blog at l'Actualité magazine's website that the Bloc Québécois' pre-session caucus meeting will be taking place right after the Labour Day weekend in Québec city, an area where they hope to regain seats from the Conservative Party.

Finally, on a very sad note, the Pundits' Guide wants to mark the far-too-early passing of a gentleman of Parliament, long-time Liberal procedural strategist Jerry Yanover. Mr. Yanover's funeral was very well attended this morning, and he was eulogized by Commons Speaker Peter Milliken and former Liberal House Leader and Interim Leader Herb Gray. Yanover was admired by his comrades and competitors alike, for if you had him in your corner it was a tremendous benefit, and if he beat you it was through being smarter, and maybe trickier, but certainly not meaner. The extent to which he is being mourned as a gentle man of Parliament is a measure of just how scarce are the inheritors of that ethic today. It is a great shame that time does not appear to have allowed his many stories and long history of parliamentary battles to have been documented in a book of memoirs, and we are the poorer for it. May he rest in peace.

If you have nomination news, or can confirm any of the details I'm looking for above, please jot me a note here, and then follow the Pundits' Guide on Twitter for all the latest news.

Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Aboriginal Candidates, Conservatives, Liberals, NDP, New Westminster – Coquitlam

Kady was looking for a little news out of the Conservative Party election readiness conference, so here's what I've picked up courtesy of reader sources:

• BC Southern Interior, BC - 2008 Conservative candidate Robert Zandee appears set to run again in this US-border riding whose location is otherwise pretty well described by its name, according to an interview he gave Jennifer Ditchburn of the Canadian Press. Zandee regained a second-place finish for his party in the last election, after 2006 candidate Derek Zeisman ran into some legal and other difficulties (literally) during the previous campaign and got disowned by Conservative Leader Stephen Harper, putting the NDP's Alex Atamanenko in position to regain the riding for his party, which it had lost to the Reform Party in 1993. I haven't seen the nomination formally posted at Elections Canada as yet, nor any meeting referred to in news clippings, so if someone could send me the date of Mr. Zandee's nomination or other details of a scheduled nomination meeting, it would be appreciated.
  
• Esquimalt – Juan de Fuca, BC - Another Conservative candidate from last election also appears to be returning for another crack at things, as a reader writes to advise that Troy deSouza is also attending the campaign school in Ottawa, and will be hosting a hospitality suite somewhere tonight (I wasn't invited unfortunately) called the "Club 68". Readers of the Pundits' Guide would immediately get the reference of course, because we would just punch up the riding's profile page and notice instantly that 68 votes was the raw margin of victory of his competitor, six-term M.P. Keith Martin in the last election [UPDATE: fixed "typo" that accidentally reversed the outcome of the race ;-)]. The riding also recently had the distinction of making Liberal blogger Dan Arnold's list of the country's Most Competitive Ridings, and no wonder: it has featured close two-way and three-way races in each of the last three elections. Martin is one of 11 Liberal MPs who were first elected in 1993, although he is a special case having served three-terms elected as a Reform/Canadian Alliance M.P. and three terms elected as a Liberal. The NDP usually puts on a competitive race in this seat as well, although it has cycled through a couple of candidates in recent elections. The parties are all likely waiting to see whether Dr. Martin will retire this time or next time. I was going to say that Dr. Martin's candidate financial return from 2008 was quite unusual in that it appeared that his campaign was fully financed by a transfer from party headquarters. But in fact, when looking at the riding association's return for 2008, you can see that the $81K transfer was actually from the riding association, and must have been erroneously entered in the wrong spot by either Dr. Martin's official agent or the Elections Canada data entry person. A good example of why we should always wait for the "as reviewed by Elections Canada" versions of the returns before jumping to conclusions. Incidentally, I don't see Mr. deSouza's nomination confirmed anywhere, so if anyone can supply the date and other details, I'd be grateful.
  
• Vancouver Kingway, BC - In another three-way race of a riding from the last election, comes word from a reader that Liberals have just re-nominated their 2008 candidate Wendy (Wei) Yuan by acclamation at a meeting held this past Saturday, July 25. Ms. Yuan replaced David Emerson as Liberal candidate in a riding made rather famous by Mr. Emerson's first decision after the 2006 election (namely to cross the floor and join Prime Minister Stephen Harper's cabinet). Nevertheless, she held on to second place in spite of a growing challenge from Conservative candidate Salomon Rayek, whose growth in vote share turned the riding into the 4th closest three-way race of the last campaign. It was also pretty competitive in the spending department as well, with all 3 major candidates spending between 84% and 96% of the limit. The riding is currently represented by first-term NDP M.P. Don Davies.
  
• Mégantic – L'Érable, QC - Meanwhile back east, Liberals have a new nomination candidate who's just announced in this eastern townships riding. The current chair of Dupont Canada in Thetford Mines, Marc Giroux, will be running for his party's nomination and the right to face off against two-term Conservative M.P. Christian Paradis. No meeting date has been set as yet. Looking back to the 2000 election, the redistribution made this riding a dead heat between the Liberals and Bloc Québécois. The Bloc candidate pulled ahead in 2004, but fell to Paradis in 2006, who also pulled in about two-thirds of previous Liberal support, repeating the feat in 2008. Thus Giroux, or whoever else is successful in winning the Liberal nomination here, will have a ways to come back in order to be in contention this time. (h/t The Liberal Scarf blog)
• Nunavut, NU - Meantime, I should note a rather glaring omission from my last blogpost, in which I ran down the aboriginal candidates nominated to date, but forgot to look north of 60 and include first-time Conservative M.P. Leona Aglukkaq in the list. Aglukkaq will be facing new Liberal and NDP opponents this time around, as the CBCnews.ca northern service is reporting today that both the Liberal and NDP candidates from 2008 are bowing out from the next race.
  

I was reminded of that omission by Bill Curry's story in today's Globe and Mail, which details the establishment of an Aboriginal Caucus by the Conservative Party's national caucus. Members will include the four elected M.P.s and two Senators.

Emails are out now trying to confirm the dates and details of the two nominated Conservative women candidates in Windsor, but I realize that everyone is likely at the candidate school now (and probably on their way to Club 68, at that). So mentally add 2 non-incumbent women from Ontario to the latest Conservative count until I can tie those details down.

Also, I understand from a reader that the Liberal nomination meeting in Saanich – Gulf Islands, BC will probably be scheduled for some time around September 9. We've previously covered the two candidates running here. Once the date is confirmed, I'll be adding it to our list in the left-hand column.

If you have nomination or candidate news to share, why not drop me a line so we can pass it on to Guide readers. Then you can follow the Pundits' Guide on Twitter for all the latest news.

Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Aboriginal Candidates, Conservatives, Liberals

In the wake of Susan Delacourt's article yesterday on urban vs. rural women candidates, someone who was at the Kenora meeting just now got in touch, and tells me that the NDP did indeed just nominate a woman in this rural riding:

• Kenora, ON - 2008 candidate Tania Cameron was just renominated as her party's candidate in one of the two northern Ontario ridings her party doesn't already hold. A band manager, Cameron rejoins two other 2008 candidates already nominated: first-time Conservative M.P. Greg Rickford and former Liberal M.P. Roger Valley. This also makes Kenora the first riding in the country to have already nominated candidates from all the major parties with seats in the House, which is not surprising given its history as a three-way race.

Cameron's nomination also puts the NDP on the map in terms of nominating aboriginal candidates, as she now joins Sydney Garrioch for the Liberals next door in Churchill, MB, along with the government's three aboriginal M.P.'s from the prairies: Shelly Glover in Saint Boniface, MB, Rod Bruinooge in Winnipeg South, MB and Rob Clarke in Desnethé – Missinippi – Churchill River, SK. Joining them shortly is expected to be Lewis Cardinal, who is running for the NDP nomination in Edmonton Centre at a meeting scheduled for Tuesday night.

Meantime in urban women nomination news, I have confirmed the nomination of the two Conservative candidates in Windsor (Denise Ghanam in Windsor – Tecumseh, ON and Lisa Lumley in Windsor West, ON), but not the dates or methods of type of nomination, so if anyone out there knows, could they please drop me a line so I can enter them in the database and add their names to the Conservative totals.

Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Aboriginal Candidates, Conservatives, NDP

Sorry folks, it's been a dreary Sunday morning in Ottawa, and I'm running out of ways to chirpily write the Nomination News titles (not having Kady's talent for such things). [See below for three updates.]

• Ottawa Centre ON - There was a gathering of Ottawa-Gatineau Liberal candidate hopefuls the other night in downtown Ottawa, and P.G. sources had a few tidbits to pass along. First is that the draft-Cyrus Reporter movement is apparently not working. However, long-time Liberal activist, fundraiser and former candidate Isabel Metcalfe is apparently readying a bid to run for the nomination. All-but-in already are Scott Bradley and Janet Yale, although the latter's footsie with Ottawa West – Nepean, ON is being noted by supporters of the former. The riding is currently held by two-term NDP M.P. Paul Dewar, and the Green Party has already renominated its 2008 candidate Jen Hunter.
  
• Gatineau, QC - More scuttlebutt from that gathering is that Liberal nomination candidate Steve McKinnon could be seeing a challenger in coming days. McKinnon kicked off his own campaign the morning before Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff visited a paper-mill in the riding [UPDATE: it was actually in the riding next door, Hull – Aylmer, as a reader wrote to correct me]. The Liberal nomination meeting there is scheduled for Thursday, September 3. The current two-term M.P. is the Bloc Québécois' Richard Nadeau, and the NDP Québec co-president and former Liberal M.P. Françoise Boivin has apparently said she would like to run again as well.
• Pontiac, QC - A commenter on an earlier post relays that former Liberal M.P. Robert Bertrand has now ruled himself out of another nomination run at the meeting which is now scheduled for Sunday September 13. Still running are Greg Fergus, Cindy Duncan McMillan and Georges Lafontaine, as we ran down here earlier. Fergus, McKinnon and Yale are all using the same communications firm for their websites, which one source from that Liberal candidates' gathering took to signify that they may be on some kind of common slate. Pontiac is currently represented by two-term Conservative M.P. Lawrence Cannon.
• Kingston and the Islands, ON - Will he or won't he? Only Commons Speaker and long-time Liberal M.P. Peter Milliken's riding association knows for sure whether he plans to run again or not, and perhaps not even them as yet, although he is certainly expected to run one more time, the Belleville Intelligencer is reporting. Milliken is one of 7 Liberal M.P.s first elected in 1988.
• UPDATE: St. Paul's, ON - The Green Party has a new candidate in this Toronto riding, after an uncontested nomination meeting this past July 4. According to the Elections Canada website, Debborah A. Donnelly was acclaimed and will be facing long-time Liberal M.P. Carolyn Bennett.
  
• Windsor – Tecumseh, ON - Another commenter pointed out that Conservatives have renominated 2008 candidate and University of Windsor management lecturer Denise Ghanam in this riding, although I can't find any verification of that in the news and neither her website nor her Facebook page have been updated to that effect. If anyone can supply further details (that means you, BBS), please drop me a line and let me know the details (such as whether she was acclaimed, the date of the meeting, etc.). This riding is now held by four-term NDP M.P. Joe Comartin, although in spite of her shoestring campaign (just 18% of the limit was spent last time) Ms. Ghanam was able to move ahead of the Liberal candidate here and into second place. [UPDATE: We now have the nomination confirmed, but still working on dates and other details. Same for Ms. Lumley below.]
  
• Windsor West, ON - The same commenter mentioned that Lisa Lumley has also apparently been renominated for the Conservatives here. I'm unable to confirm that either, so if anyone can give me a source, a date and whether it was by acclamation or contested, I'll be able to add that into the database. The riding is currenty held by four-term NDP M.P. Brian Masse who won it in a by-election after the retirement of long-time Liberal M.P. Herb Gray. Here again, however, Lumley was able to move past the Liberal candidate and into a second place finish, although spending much closer to the limit than Ms. Ghanam (69%).
• Nickel Belt and Sudbury, ON - A reader travelling through northern Ontario dropped me a line to say that the NDP nomination meeting in these two ridings has been set for Thursday, September 10. The party picked up both seats from the Liberals in the last election, the former held once before by the party in the 1980s, but the latter a Liberal enclave since at least 1947, save for a brief by-election interregnum between 1967 and 1968, the last time the NDP won there. Incumbent NDP M.P.s Claude Gravelle and Glenn Thibeault are expected to be uncontested.
  
• Edmonton – Sherwood Park, AB - The Liberal nomination meeting for this riding has been scheduled for Monday, July 27, although as yet only Rick Szostak who ran here in 2008 has come forward, reports the Sherwood Park News. The riding was narrowly won last time (with a 3.4% margin) by first-time Conservative M.P. Tim Uppal, in a race that was unusually interesting by Alberta standards. Uppal's nomination competitor James Ford wound up running as an independent candidate, and although outspent by Uppal (95% of the limit vs. 38%) turned in the only second-place finish for an independent last time, and nearly taking the riding. Ford recently told the Edmonton Journal that if an election is held this fall, he plans to run again. Thanks to a reader for passing this along.
• Vancouver Centre, BC - A business-owner who runs a Kitsilano social club, Rachel Greenfeld, is the first candidate to announce a run for the Conservative nomination in this downtown Vancouver riding, currently held by long-time Liberal M.P. Hedy Fry, the Vancouver Courier is reporting. Fry tells the Courier that she met the requirements to have an uncontested nomination, while the Green Party's Adriane Carr was already acclaimed in April. The NDP's Michael Byers told the Georgia Straight the day after the last election that he too would run again, which means that, should Greenfeld win her party's nomination, she will be the only new candidate in the race amongst the major parties there. Carr's entry and the strong performance of previous Conservative candidate Lorne Mayencourt turned the riding into a 4-way race in 2008. The Courier doesn't indicate whether Mayencourt plans to run again himself, or when the Conservative nomination meeting has been scheduled. (h/t the Liberal Scarf blog for this one!)
  

Hedy Fry is also paraphrased as saying that "she won't face a nomination meeting for the Liberals, but as the incumbent for Vancouver Centre she had to meet certain criteria in order to run for the party in the next federal election". But does this mean that the BC section of the federal Liberal Party has different rules than the Québec section, which has already renominated 4 incumbents at actual meetings? As discussed here before, at some length, I've been told several times by Liberal headquarters that Liberal incumbents meeting the criteria have only won the right to be uncontested, but they still all have to go through nomination meetings ... only to be contacted later by another official on the Hill and told that all the incumbents should be considered renominated. Colour me confused on this one, folks, although the Courier could always have misinterpreted what they were hearing too, and got that part of the story wrong. I'm still individually recording Liberal candidates as being nominated when their meetings are held, unless convincingly persuaded otherwise.

Meanwhile, Liberal National Director Rocco Rossi told the Belleville Intelligencer that all the Liberal incumbents have now met those criteria, and he expects them all to be running again unless any should retire.

Turning back to Québec for a second, Bloc Québécois whip Michel Guimond told Le Journal de Québec that he's ordered his MPs to return to work on August 3, and is stepping up the pace of nomination meetings in order to be ready in case the government should fall in September. I am still not seeing any indications of a Bloc candidate in the vacant ridings of Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, QC or Hochelaga, QC however, but perhaps we'll see that sometime after August 3.

He also gave the most definitive description of the Bloc's plans for a fall confidence vote I've seen so far, saying "le gouvernement Harper a perdu notre confiance. On ne voit pas comment on pourrait donner notre confiance à Stephen Harper" and speculating that there was "une possibilité électorale et une fenêtre qui s’ouvrent".

[UPDATE: Perhaps not surprisingly given what we wrote about Sudbury above, the Liberals have scheduled their National Caucus Retreat for Sudbury in late August. Meanwhile, the NDP has scheduled its pre-session Caucus Retreat for Edmonton in mid-September, and the Conservative National Caucus is starting in Ottawa tomorrow.]

If you have nomination news or know about potential candidates, please drop us a line here including a link to a news source if you have it, and then follow all the latest @punditsguide on Twitter. Meantime, the sun just came out here, so it's over and out from Ottawa for now.

Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Bloc Québécois, Conservatives, Liberals, NDP

Susan Delacourt had an interesting story in Saturday's Toronto Star (and a follow-up on her blog) on the differential rates of election of women between urban and rural ridings. The research she's citing from Louise Carbert, of Dalhousie University in Halifax, apparently looks back several decades. But I had the data handy to examine the last 5 general elections, with the following results.

[For the purposes of this analysis, I've used the same urban vs. rural riding designations as for last summer's analysis of party success done for the Chronicle Herald (with the one exception that I later realized I had accidentally miscategorized Wascana, SK as an urban riding). Notice that I've grouped the Canadian Alliance/Reform and Progressive Conservative parties together for the years 1997 and 2000 in the following charts.]

The first observation we can make is that women have been twice as likely to be nominated in urban ridings compared with rural ridings, although the number of women nominated in rural ridings is increasing overall. This was mostly due to increased number of rural Liberal women in 2008, while their number of urban women candidates stayed roughly constant. The Conservatives also had their best year ever for urban female nominees in 2008. Between 2004 and 2008, the Liberals, NDP and Greens were nominating between 2/3rds and 3/4rs of all urban women candidates, but by 2008 virtually all of the rural ones. Given that these parties traditionally have their bases of support in urban Canada, it's clear that the majority of those rural women candidates were facing an uphill battle.

Turning to the number and distribution of women who got elected, however, we can see that the number of women elected in both urban and rural seats stayed fairly constant, although the distribution between parties changed a bit. And as the article indicates, the Conservatives did manage to increase the number of women they elected in rural seats in 2008, increasing the overall number there slightly and leaving the Liberals with just one woman elected in a rural seat anywhere in the country (Judy Foote in Random – Burin – St. George's, NL). The number of rural women elected by the Bloc Québécois also declined in 2008, mainly due to retiring incumbents.

Obviously, if parties are going to meet their commitments to increase the number of women candidates they run, it will be by definition in non-incumbent ridings that will therefore be harder to win. If more women are to be elected in rural ridings, it will either be because retiring Conservative incumbents are replaced by women candidates (as happened for example when Candice Hoeppner replaced Brian Pallister in Portage – Lisgar, MB), or because women candidates from the other parties can win over those seats (although the Conservatives only lost 6 seats overall last time, 2 to women, both urban).

One picky point to finish with, though. The sidebar to the Star article refers to Agnes MacPhail as the first woman to be elected a Member of Parliament (and in a rural riding), saying that she "ran in the first federal election in which women had the vote, for the Progressive Party, a forerunner to the Progressive Conservative party." However, Ms. MacPhail herself did not join the PCs, but rather had belonged to the Ginger Group faction of the Progressive Party which went on to participate in the formation of the CCF, the precursor of the modern NDP. She ran under the banner of the "United Farmers of Ontario-Labour" party in 1935 and 1940, ultimately joining the CCF in 1942, and it was the NDP's fund for women candidates which bore her name.

Labels: Data Analysis, Rural vs Urban Seats, Women Candidates

Hot off the Twitter-press comes word of the latest candidate to win a contested nomination:

• New Westminster – Coquitlam, BC - @mpjamesmoore tweeted that Port Moody city councillor Diana Dilworth won the contested nomination held this afternoon, and will be the Conservative Party's candidate in this vacant riding where a by-election must be called before Tuesday, October 13. Already nominated is the NDP's Fin Donnelly, a Coquitlam city councillor, while a former Liberal candidate in a neighbouring riding, Gerry Lenoski, has been actively organizing for their nomination and Port Moody Mayor Joe Trasolini has yet to rule himself out either that I can tell. No meeting date is available for the Liberals as yet. The Green Party appears to have acclaimed business analyst Rebecca Helps from Port Moody, I've just noticed, as she was apparently the only candidate to meet the June 30th deadline.

This latest news appears to rule out Elizabeth May from running in this seat in any upcoming set of by-elections, although she has previously said she would likely not announce her intentions until any by-elections were actually called.

UPDATE: You'll notice that James Moore included "Port Moody" in the riding name in his original tweet, although it's not officially there. I asked him about that, and he tweeted back that that about half of Port Moody (some 12,000 people) is in the riding of New Westminster – Coquitlam. Of course, as Mr. Moore represents the other half, which is in his riding of Port Moody – Westwood – Port Coquitlam, BC, he should know! There is currently a private member's bill (Bill C-292) sitting on the Order Paper to change the riding's name to New Westminster – Coquitlam – Port Moody in the name of the former M.P. Dawn Black, and Moore appeared to commit Ms. Dilworth to carrying this issue forward.

Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Conservatives, Greens, New Westminster – Coquitlam

A couple of updates to report since this morning's mammoth update:

• Vancouver South, BC - I've now been able to confirm that Wai Young was indeed acclaimed last Wednesday July 15 as the Conservative candidate in this riding. At the end of the riding's candidate search process she was the only person to come forward, and was approved by the riding's executive in time to be introduced at last Wednesday's dinner. She will face three-term Liberal M.P. and former NDP Premier Ujjal Dosanjh, whom she came within 20 votes of defeating in the last election. Should be a race to watch out west!
• Pontiac, QC - A reader has written to say that it is by no means certain that former Liberal M.P. Robert Bertrand will be running for the nomination here, but meantime in a clipping I missed from yesterday, Le Droit is reporting another name entering the race. Georges Lafontaine is a former aide to provincial Liberal MLAs in the Pontiac area, and would have been active in now-Conservative M.P. Lawrence Cannon's former provincial campaigns as well, my source says. A writer, Lafontaine is currently working for the Algonquin first nation in Maniwaki after spending several years writing novels, and will be competing with Cindy Duncan McMillan and Greg Fergus at the September meeting.

Further to an observation I made in an earlier post, Ms. Young's nomination represents the first woman non-incumbent to be nominated by the Conservative Party.

Thanks to those readers who assisted with these updates. If you have information to add, please get in touch by email. And then follow the Pundits' Guide on Twitter for all the latest.

Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Conservatives, Liberals

Well, I just got a batch of other work out of the way, but boy the nomination news sure piles up in the meantime. Thank you so much to everyone who has written to pass various items along; it really does look like things are starting to heat up out there in spite of summer holidays (and the actual weather).

Let's start with candidates who were nominated in the past few days and some meetings that were recently scheduled, and then follow up with some some earlier nominations we may have missed, and some new candidate announcements.

• Calgary West, AB - Lawyer and 2008 candidate Jennifer Pollock won her party's nomination in Monday night's contest. Reader reports say the meeting was well-attended with 88 people voting, and that second-place finisher Ernie Corbett may yet surface as a Liberal candidate in a neighbouring riding. The riding is currently represented by long-time Conservative M.P. Rob Anders.
  
• Haldimand – Norfolk, ON - Former Liberal M.P. Bob Speller was renominated by acclamation as well Monday night in this southwestern Ontario riding, currently held by Conservative M.P. Diane Finley. Speller was first elected in 1988 and this will be his third contest against Finley. He sat out the 2008 election, which saw his Liberal replacement largely hold their vote share but Finley's vote drop 8 percentage points in favour of well-performing independent candidate Gary McHale who ran to raise the issue of the Caledonia land dispute between area residents and first nations. Last I read McHale was considering a second run, which could have some interesting and unpredictable effects on the riding's outcome. Speller is the 8th former Liberal M.P. to be nominated as a candidate for the current election.
  
• Compton – Stanstead, QC - As he was the only declared candidate, I'm assuming that 2008 Liberal candidate William Hogg was successfully renominated by acclamation at last night's meeting in this Eastern Townships riding in Québec, currently held by three-term Bloc Québécois M.P. France Bonsant.
  

Hogg's nomination kicked off a group of 9 further Québec Liberal nomination meetings set to unfold between now and the return of the Commons on September 14, which were announced on Tuesday as follows:

• Mon 27 Jul - Longueuil – Pierre-Boucher, QC
• Tue 28 Jul - Joliette, QC
• Wed 12 Aug - Argenteuil – Papineau – Mirabel, QC
• Wed 19 Aug - Jonquière – Alma, QC
• Thu 27 Aug - Lac-Saint-Louis, QC
• Thu 3 Sep - Gatineau, QC
• Sun 13 Sep - Pontiac, QC

I am currently trying to confirm three names passed along to me by a reader of Conservative candidates who may already have been nominated. If any other readers can help out by sending along links or clippings that would be appreciated:

• Eglinton – Lawrence, ON - This was the Conservatives' best riding in north Toronto in the last election, and 2008 candidate Joe Oliver has either been renominated already or looks to be keen to get the nomination at the very least. According to his recent tweets, he has been attending many community events, including some with Peter Kent and Jason Kenney, certainly looks to be keeping a candidate's schedule, and is saying on Twitter that Conservatives need MPs from Toronto in their three closest seats of last time. The riding is currently held by long-time Liberal M.P. Joe Volpe, however Oliver obtained 39.3% of the vote last time, coming within 4.7% of Volpe's vote share, and significantly outspending Volpe (nearly 100% of the spending limit vs. Volpe's 58%) in the process. It is unclear whether this former President of the Investment Dealers Association has been formally renominated just yet, but if any reader could clarify, it would be appreciated.
  
• Don Valley West, ON - One of the events Oliver was attending was a barbecue being organized by the 2008 Conservative in this neighbouring riding, the party's 2nd best riding in north Toronto last time out, John Carmichael. Again, a source tells me that Carmichael has been renominated, but I can't find any documentary evidence of that as yet, unless you count the barbecue with Peter Kent. This former chair of the Canadian Automobile Dealers' Association obtained 38.8% of the vote running against newly-elected Liberal by-election M.P. Rob Oliphant in 2008, and outspent him by a good margin as well (97% of the limit to Oliphant's 70%).
  
• Vancouver South, BC - A third Conservative candidate said to have been renominated from last time is Wai Young, who came within 20 votes (after a long and tortuous recount process) of defeating Liberal M.P. Ujjal Dosanjh in the 2nd closest race of the last election, having slightly outspent him as well (94% of the limit vs. 87%) Young had certainly indicated to Public Eye Online in May that she intended to run again somewhere, either federally or provincially, but again I can find no documentary evidence that she has actually been formally renominated here, so if anyone out there has further details I'd love to hear them.

In other nomination news, starting with the two vacant ridings:

• Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, NS - As expected, previous Liberal candidate Tracy Parsons has announced her intention to seek the Liberal nomination in this vacant Nova Scotia seat, which means a contest is on between Parsons and farmer Jim Burrows. This is the seat vacated by Independent M.P. Bill Casey in order to take a job representing the provincial government in Ottawa.
  
• Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, QC - Word from Radio-Canada about one of the vacant ridings, that the Mayor of La Pocatière, Bernard Généreux, is considering running for the Conservatives in any upcoming election, given that he is not planning to run for reelection municipally. Former Bloc Québécois M.P. Paul Crête was elected here in 2008, but stepped down to make an unsuccessful provincial bid in Rivière-du-Loup provincially for the Bloc's sister party, the Parti Québécois, in the spring.
  
• Pontiac, QC - As mentioned above, the contested Liberal nomination meeting has now been scheduled for Sunday, September 13, and a commenter here runs down the latest handicapping of the race from an insider's perspective here. Running are former Liberal Party national director Greg Fergus, former Liberal M.P. Robert Bertrand, and former 2008 Liberal candidate Cindy Duncan McMillan. The riding is currently held by two-term Conservative M.P. Lawrence Cannon, and is rated as meeting the criteria for a close three-way and four-way race, although Cannon also increased his margin from 5.0% to 8.5% between 2006 and 2008. I can't comment on the spending, as Ms. Duncan McMillan's return is not yet posted on the Elections Canada website.
  
• Ottawa Centre, ON - A reader writes to pass along that Janet Yale now seems fairly certain to contest the Liberal nomination here, against Scott Bradley who is all but in and has a website set up here. Yale, you'll recall, was said to be considering a run against former M.P. David Pratt in neighbouring Ottawa West – Nepean, ON but publicly removed her name from consideration. The riding is currently represented by two-term NDP M.P. Paul Dewar.
  
• Toronto Centre, ON - The NDP may have a nomination contest shaping up in this riding, as 2008 Willowdale candidate and a former director of the Canadian Actors' Equity, Susan Wallace, has announced a bid for the nomination there. My sources say that two-time former NDP candidate, and the recently-elected Grand Marshall of the Toronto Pride Parade, muslim lawyer El-Farouk Khaki, is also hoping to run again. [UPDATE: Per his comment below, Mr. Khaki is in fact not planning a run again this time.] No date for the meeting has been set as yet. This is the riding won by Liberal leadership candidate and former NDP MP and Premier, Bob Rae in the March 2008 by-elections. After seeing higher spending levels during the by-election, the general election was a more muted affair, with Rae spending just 54% of the limit but his rivals spending barely half of that. Already nominated in this riding are new Conservative candidate Kevin Moore (not Keith, thanks to a reader for the correction), and former Green Party candidate Ellen Michelson.
  
• Parry Sound – Muskoka, ON - Computer consultant Doug Banwell has announced he will be running for the Liberal nomination in this central Ontario riding, currently held by two-term Conservative M.P. Tony Clement, reports ParrySound.com. No date has been set for the nomination meeting as yet, although the riding association has asked for one to be set, and expects it for late August. After earning the ranking of the closest riding of the 2006 election when Clement won by just 28 votes, he went on to earn over 50% of the vote here last time.

OK, that's a wrap for now. If you have any nomination news to pass along for the next update, please drop me a line here. Then you can follow all the latest @punditsguide on Twitter.

Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Conservatives, Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, Liberals, Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, NDP

Boy, no sooner do I hit publish when a few more items surface to report on. Here are the latest:

• Saint John, NB - Former two-term Liberal M.P. Paul Zed, who has been serving as interim chief of staff to Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff, is apparently stepping down in favour of a permanent replacement in the fall, in order to return home and prepare another run for office, reports the Toronto Star's Susan Delacourt in her blog. She doesn't mention which riding, but Saint John is where Zed has run six times before, finally winning after former PC M.P. Elsie Wayne's retirement, and where he lost in 2008 to first-time Conservative M.P. Rodney Weston after serving two terms. Saint John looks like a true swing riding, as it has been settled by close margins two different ways over the last two elections, but has obviously not always swung to the government side either, given that Mrs. Wayne was able to get elected as one of only 2 Progressive Conservative M.P.s in 1993. Zed was outspent by his two Conservative challengers in each of the last two outings, however.
  
• Gatineau, QC - We earlier reported that former Liberal National Director Steve McKinnon was rumoured to be running for the nomination in this western Québec, and now word comes through the Globe and Mail's house Conservative blogger and fellow pundit Tim Powers that indeed McKinnon is making the leap. The riding is currently held by two-term Bloc Québécois M.P. Richard Nadeau, and 2008 NDP candidate and former Liberal M.P. for the riding Françoise Boivin has also let it be known she will run again. The closeness of this riding, both as a two-way, three-way and the #1 closest four-way race of the last election has been extensively documented here before, but it figures to be at or near the top of most political watchers lists next time around.
  
• Winnipeg Centre, MB - A reader wrote to pass along the news that Jacqueline Romanow, former acting director of the Centre for Aboriginal Governance at the University of Winnipeg, and still on the faculty there, was recently acclaimed as the Green Party's candidate in this core urban Winnipeg seat. Romanow will also join the Leader Elizabeth May's shadow cabinet, responsible for International Trade. We were talking about Edmonton East, AB being a low turnout riding the other day, but Winnipeg Centre is actually a bit worse in that department, coming in at 43.2% in 2008, the 8th lowest turnout of the last election, but always consistently below 50% over the past number of elections. Still five-term NDP M.P. Pat Martin has increased his vote share over that time from 41% to 49%, and the only recent change in standings in this riding saw the Conservatives move into 2nd place ahead of the Liberals, with the Green vote also increasing enough last time (up to 11%) to earn a rebate of candidate expenses, not that they spent much on the last campaign.
  

Romanow has pointed out her Métis heritage elsewhere, and joins the list of aboriginal candidates either nominated or about to be including Conservative M.P.s Rod Bruinooge, Shelly Glover, and Rob Clarke, Liberal candidate Sydney Garrioch who was nominated Saturday in Churchill, MB and New Democrat candidate Tania Cameron who is expected to be nominated next weekend in Kenora, ON [UPDATE: Thanks to a reader, we now know that will be on Sunday, July 26]. I'll be starting up a similar list to the one from last time soon, until I can get a better candidates page and search engine built.

Do you have information about nominations or potential candidates? If so, you can always tell Tim Powers or Susan Delacourt, but I hope you'll consider telling us too, by dropping me a line here, and then following all the news on Twitter.

Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Aboriginal Candidates, Greens, Liberals

Liberals and Greens will be hosting a couple of contested nominations in the Ottawa area later this summer:

• Nepean – Carleton, ON - As we reported here earlier, lawyer Ryan Keon is planning to run for the Liberal nomination in this west-end riding. However, thanks to an email from another reader we learn that entrepreneur Bruce Ricketts has been green-lighted to make a run for it here as well. No word yet on when the meeting might be scheduled. Already nominated are first-time candidate Jean-Luc Cooke for the Green Party, and of course three-term Conservative M.P. Pierre Poilievre.
• Ottawa – Vanier, ON - Three ridings further east, area Greens are preparing for a contested nomination between Caroline Rioux and 2008 candidate Akbar Manoussi, which is scheduled for Thursday, August 20. The riding is currently represented by Liberal M.P. Mauril Bélanger, who was first elected in a 1995 by-election to replace former long-time Liberal M.P. Jean-Robert Gauthier on his appointment to the Senate. I'm actually a bit surprised looking at the campaign expenditures just now to see that 2008 Conservative candidate Patrick Glémaud's spending fell so far below the limit (down to 62% in 2008 from 96-98% in 2004-2006), given that the Prime Minister visited the riding at least three times during the election campaign that I counted. Bélanger, meanwhile, was taking nothing for granted, ramping his spending up to 93% from 76-83% in previous outings. The Green Party increased its raw vote last time under Manoussi, while the NDP fell back a bit with a new candidate who was nominated late after their previous federal candidate stepped down to run provincially instead. (Yes, yes, this is the riding I grew up in; how can you tell? I even scrutineered the count in the returning office in the 1995 by-election!) Thanks to another reader for sending this clipping along.
  

Both these items originated with reader emails over the past 24 hours, so you see how valuable your notes are? If you have local nomination or candidate news, please send it along, and then follow the latest @punditsguide on Twitter.

Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Greens, Liberals

This morning's Hill Times has a lengthy piece by Harris MacLeod on the forthcoming election and ridings to watch at this early stage, including a list compiled in part by yours truly.

I appreciate the publicity and opportunity to provide information to the Hill Times, but just wanted to clarify that the list in the paper *includes* ridings provided by me, and that there was some editorializing going on by them in some of the list's comments as well. Specifically:

• While I might agree that Brampton – Springdale, ON should be on the list because the Conservatives nominated there very early, I did not write the comments about it or its incumbent M.P. (and in general I do not even like "xx-gate" terms).
• Moreover, Oakville, ON is a riding to watch, but I would have described it as a 1993 Liberal pickup of a previously Conservative seat at a time when the conservative parties split, rather than a "long-time" Liberal riding. Former Liberal M.P. Bonnie Brown won the seat in 1993, but it was previously held for 4 terms by Conservative M.P. Otto Jelinek. On the other hand, this is just the kind of seat whose fate will be interesting to watch going forward.
  

The riding list only appears in the printed edition, but as before I will be asking for permission to reprint it here, along with a table I prepared for last week's story on the battle in Québec, called "Québec by the Numbers (2008 General Election)".

Sorry to be so picky, but I really try to take care about the kinds of remarks I make, in order to keep this site a neutral place that's useful for everyone. Otherwise, keep up the great work, Hill Times, and from someone who read you from the beginning: Happy 20th Anniversary this October!

Labels: Hill Times, Media Coverage

While verifying some data against the Elections Canada Nominations Database this morning, I realized that they had a few names not already in the Pundits' Guide database, so let's rectify that right now:

• Stormont – Dundas – South Glengarry, ON - On May 14 local Greens renominated their 2008 candidate, David Rawnsley, by acclamation. This eastern Ontario riding is currently held by three-term Conservative M.P. Guy Lauzon, and at least one candidate (Bernadette Clement) is also considering a run for the Liberals, as reported here earlier.
• Dufferin – Caledon, ON - On June 2 Greens in this riding met to acclaim their 2008 candidate as well. Ard Van Leeuwen posted his party's 6th best performance of the last election, and while at least one Liberal blogger had been suggesting this seat as a good choice for Elizabeth May to run in, it appears for now that Greens in this riding are already represented for the next election. This largely rural riding northwest of Toronto is currently represented by three-term Conservative M.P. David Tilson, and will also have a new Liberal candidate with the resignation from party politics of 2008 candidate Rebecca Finch earlier this year.
  
• Trinity – Spadina, ON - The next day on June 3, local Greens also met in this downtown Toronto riding to renominate their 2008 candidate, performance artist and arts educator Stephen La Frenie, also known as "Mime-guy". La Frenie, who was acclaimed, rejoins 2008 Liberal candidate Christine Innes who was also recently acclaimed for another run. The riding is currently held by two-term NDP M.P. Olivia Chow. No potential Conservative candidate has surfaced as yet. The riding's recently history was covered here last month.

This brings my count of Green Party candidates up to 27, 11 of them women. Of the 10 Conservative non-incumbent candidates already nominated, there are no women as yet. Of the 19 non-incumbent Liberal candidates, just 4 are women. The NDP has nominated just one non-incumbent candidate so far in a potential by-election riding, but just not a woman. And of the three non-incumbents nominated by the Bloc, none are women either.

I've written before that you can get an indication of which next-tier ridings parties are targetting based on where they nominate non-incumbents early. Clearly everyone has a bit of work to do if they are going to meet their commitments to Equal Voice of last month. Of course it may be a bit early to assess their slates in terms of gender and ethnic diversity, but it's a trend worth watching over the coming months.

Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Greens, Women Candidates

Thanks to a Twitter contact for letting us know this meeting had been scheduled:

• Calgary West, AB - We noted last month that a contested Liberal nomination was brewing in this riding, and it will be taking place this Monday July 20. Running are former school board chair and two-time candidate Jennifer Pollock, and IT consultant Ernie Corbett. The riding is currently held by long-time Conservative M.P. Rob Anders.
• Algoma – Manitoulin – Kapuskasing, ON - The chief administrative officer of Wawa, Chris Wray, has announced his interest in running for the Liberal nomination in this northern Ontario riding, Wawa-News.com is reporting. Former long-time Liberal M.P. Brent St.-Denis, who lost the riding to first-time NDP M.P. Carol Hughes on her third try in 2008, earlier ruled himself out from another run. No nomination date for the new Liberal has been set as yet. Thanks to a reader for passing this clipping along.
  
• Churchill, MB - Still trying to confirm that the Liberal nomination unfolded as expected today. MKIO grand chief Sydney Garrioch was expected to win by acclamation, but given the time zones and distance I have so far been unable to locate any confirmation. If you know what happened, please get in touch. UPDATE: Confirmed by the Winnipeg Sun; the meeting took place in Cross Lake yesterday.
  

Reader tips help make the Pundits' Guide better, so if you have news to share please do drop me a line or send me a tweet @punditsguide on Twitter.

Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Liberals

The Conservatives have a new candidate in northwestern Ontario this afternoon:

• Thunder Bay – Superior North, ON - This contested Conservative nomination meeting must have been a real nail-biter, because NetNewsLedger.com is reporting this afternoon that it was won "in a coin toss" by former Buchanan Forest Products manager Michael Auld over Nipigon Mayor Richard Harvey. We'll have to stay tuned to see what that meant exactly, but it appears the race is now decided. [UPDATE: It *was* a nail-biter, reports TBNewsWatch.com: of 120 people voting, the result was a tie, and party rules dictated the outcome be settled by coin-toss.] The riding is currently represented by first-time NDP M.P. Bruce Hyer, and also has a pending contested Liberal nomination underway (date undetermined) being contested by three candidates: 2008 candidate Don McArthur, lawyer Yves Fricot, and Thunder Bay city councillor Joe Virdiramo.

In other generic nomination news, Jane Taber's column in today's Globe is reporting another big-name-no-riding-specified Liberal candidate rumour. Her BC source is saying Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff has apparently promised recently-defeated B.C. Attorney-General Wallace Oppal the Justice portfolio if he runs as a federal Liberal in the next election. Oppal previously represented Vancouver-Fraserview provincially, but moved over to Delta South in the last election to make room for former police chief Kash Heed, and wound up losing there to independent candidate Vicki Huntington. The former riding (I'm eyeballing it here) looks to be inside Vancouver South, BC federally (currently represented by Liberal M.P. Ujjal Dosanjh), while the latter seems to be contained in Delta – Richmond East, BC (now held by Conservative M.P. John Cummins).

Hey I like to hear from BC sources too (or really any sources from anywhere), and I bet mine are just as good. Drop a line with any nomination or candidate news you've heard, and then follow all the latest on Twitter @punditsguide.

Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Conservatives, Liberals

Courtesy of a reader, here is a Facebook event for the NDP nomination meeting in the riding about to be vacated by Réal Ménard:

• Hochelaga, QC - NDP Leader Jack Layton will be attending his party's August 3 nomination meeting in this east-end Montréal riding about to be vacated when long-time Bloc Québécois incumbent Réal Ménard resigns for a municipal bid on September 16. Expected to be acclaimed is their 2008 candidate and the president of the east-end refinery workers local of CEP, Jean-Claude Rocheleau. As we previously reported here, New Democrats in this riding have been anticipating Ménard's resignation since February, and are targetting the seat as well as the Bloc's support amongst the Québec labour movement. No word yet on plans by the other parties for nominations, but their candidate recruitment may depend on the outcome of the Québec municipal elections scheduled for November 1.

Once Ménard resigns on September 16, a by-election could theoretically be called as early as Sunday, September 27 for November 2 (assuming the paperwork from the Speaker to the Chief Electoral Office got processed rapidly), or held off as late as a March 15, 2010 call for April 26 or thereafter. In the former case, it could be called together with the 3 other currently vacant seats, so long as it were called before Tuesday, October 13, which would put the date on or before Monday, November 23.

Given that two of the vacant seats will be in Québec, and that Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, QC has to be called by Wednesday, November 18, we could also speculate that there might be two sets of by-elections called ... an earlier set in the vacant BC and Nova Scotia ridings that would either take place during or before the return of the House in September, and a later set in Québec designed not to interfere or overlap with the province-wide November 1 municipal elections.

If you hear about nomination meetings, prospective candidates, or other nomination news (like, when they're going to be called, which would be a great scoop !!), don't be shy: share with Pundits' Guide readers by jotting me a note. And then you can follow all the fun on Twitter.

Labels: Hochelaga, Labour, NDP, Vacant Seats

A likely by-election riding is now likely to see a contested Liberal nomination as well:

• Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, NS - We first reported this February that 2008 Liberal candidate (and former Progressive Canadian Party leader) Tracy Parsons was planning to run for her party again in the riding vacated by Independent Bill Casey on his retirement from federal politics earlier this spring, and it appears from her Facebook page that she is still running. Now it appears Parsons will be joined in the nomination race by dairy farmer Jim Burrows, according to the Truro Daily News. No date seems to have been set for a nomination meeting as yet, however. The Conservatives have already nominated Scott Armstrong, and the announcement of a date for the NDP nomination meeting is said to be imminent. No word yet whether Green Party Leader Elizabeth May will decide to run here, but apparently it's on her list of options. The by-election must be called by October 31 at the latest, for a date on or after Monday December 9.

Share information about nomination meetings and candidates by dropping me a line. Send a clipping if you can, or other supporting details, and of course your identity will not be associated with the information anywhere. Then follow the Pundits' Guide on Twitter for regular updates.

Labels: Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, Liberals

A few more contested nomination races surfaced in tonight's news scan:

• London West, ON - In the wake of former M.P. Sue Barnes' decision not to run again, three Liberal candidates are now organizing to win their party's nomination, reports the London Free Press, although no meeting date has been set as yet. As we already reported here earlier, former Liberal Party president and lawyer Doug Ferguson has entered the race (although contrary to the story cited in March, it appears Mike Eizenga has not). Also running are high school teacher Matt Brown, and David White a sales representative in the financial services industry. The riding is currently held by first-term Conservative M.P. Ed Holder.
• London – Fanshawe, ON - In the riding next door, real estate entrepreneur Ab Chahbar is readying his campaign for the Conservative nomination, the London Free Press also reports. To date he is the only declared candidate, with nominations closing on July 29. The riding is now held by two-term NDP M.P. Irene Mathyssen.
• Cypress Hills – Grasslands, SK - Three candidates are vying for the right to represent the Green Party in this rural riding in southwest Saskatchewan, we learn from the ReportOnGreens blog. Running are 2008 canndidate Bill Clary, Chris Carnell and Matt Josdal. The successful candidate will be selected at a meeting on August 29. The riding is held by Conservative M.P. David L. Anderson who has won it with over 60% of the vote four times since the 2000 election.

Do you have nomination news to pass along? Then please get in touch by email, and afterwards follow the Pundits' Guide on Twitter for all the latest in election readiness stats.

Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Greens, Liberals

I had somehow missed getting the date for this contested Conservative nomination meeting until just now:

• Thunder Bay – Superior North, ON - The two candidates for the Conservative nomination in this northwest Ontario riding will face off tomorrow morning I learned this evening from NetNewsLedger.com. Running are Nipigon mayor Richard Harvey and provincial riding president Michael Auld. There is also an on-going Liberal nomination contest in this riding, but as yet no meeting date that I've come across (if anyone knows, please do get in touch and pass it along!). The riding is currently represented by first-time NDP M.P. Bruce Hyer.
  

If you know about nomination meetings or candidates in your area, keep Pundits' Guide readers up to date by dropping me a line. Then you can follow all the latest news on Twitter @punditsguide.

Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Conservatives

For the serious DIY election predicticators amongst you, at least those using real computers PCs (wink), comes a new tool from the Paulitics website. Built using VBA for use in Microsoft Excel, it draws on previous election results to generate seat projections using two different methodologies (arithmetic and geometric) and contains a handy reference to Paulitics' own index of the latest public poll results.

I can't tell what variables are going into the projections, and whether he's taking turnout and regional differences within provinces into account, but certainly you can enter your own guesses region by region, generate the overall outcomes, and then save the result.

Seat projections are very popular these days, but I don't think they take every important variable into account, such as incumbency (e.g., Egmont, PE), turnout (e.g., Mississauga – Erindale, ON) or candidate selection (e.g., Central Nova, NS or St. John's East, NL). If political parties planned their strategies based only on horse-race polling numbers published in the mainstream media and past results, I think they'd be very foolish. Still the exercise is worthwhile, and this looks to be a fun-filled way to pass the hours for political junkies.

Bravo to Paulitics for a well-executed project. I'm adding it to my list of links as well (something that also looks like it needs a bit of a summer cleanup).

Labels: Seat Projections

Thanks to daveberta.ca, some news about upcoming nomination meetings in a couple of Edmonton ridings:

• Edmonton Centre, AB - Both the Liberals and NDP will be nominating their candidates here in a few weeks, ironically with a day of each other, and both are expected to be acclaimed. On Monday July 27, Liberals will meet to select Mary McDonald, a lawyer and former aide to former Liberal M.P. Anne McLellan. The next day, New Democrats will meet to select their candidate, likely small businessperson and local human rights activist Lewis Cardinal. The riding is currently represented by two-term Conservative M.P. Laurie Hawn, who took it on his second try against "Landslide Annie", as Anne McLellan came to be known for the consistently small margins she won by. Hawn was reelected in 2008 with a considerably larger margin, however it looks like both the Liberals and NDP are targetting this riding.
  
• Edmonton East, AB - On the same night, indeed at the same meeting, the NDP will be nominating its candidate in neighbouring Edmonton East, where former provincial leader and former federal candidate Ray Martin will almost certainly be acclaimed. Martin achieved the second-highest vote share of any NDP candidate in Alberta in 2008 (31.8%), although his campaign was far from fully funded (he spent just 29% of the limit, to the Conservatives' 78%). Conservative M.P. Peter Goldring has held the seat since 1997, and like Hawn was automatically renominated as his party's incumbent on May 4 after their party's referendum results. Goldring defeated one-term Liberal M.P. Judy Bethel who was first elected in 1993, who herself defeated one-term NDP M.P. Ross Harvey first elected in 1988. [UPDATE: Thanks are due again to daveberta.ca for the correction he made in the comments below.]
  

One characteristic of these two ridings that really struck me just now in reviewing their history is their incredibly low turnout, both historically and in the last election. Turnout in Edmonton Centre was 51.6% last time, down from 59.8% and 62.5% in 2004-2006 and 54%-56% in its predecessor seat of Edmonton West. And this is in spite of the tight margins by which Ms. McLellan used to win her seat, defying one of the usual hypotheses for low turnout in Alberta (namely that the one party dominance has usually meant there's little to decide at the polls on election day). For more on turnout in Alberta provincial elections, see the excellent series of features last year from Jason Fekete and Renata D'Aliesio of the Calgary Herald.

Edmonton East next door chalked up just 45.4% turnout in 2008, consistent with the downward trend but overall low turnouts in this riding and its predecessors since 1988. It has consistently shown the lowest turnout of any riding in Edmonton, and perhaps not coincidentally also ranks the lowest on many census measures of income and employment. To put the 45.4% figure into perspective, it is the 13th worst turnout of the last election and 19th worst turnout of any riding in any general election since 1988.

The strategies to hold or win over low turnout ridings might look very different than those needed to win elsewhere, which undoubtedly the parties will be taking into account.

Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Liberals, NDP, oter Turnout, Voter Turnout

Thanks to commenter "theonlysandman" from the website HomeZilla.ca on our recent posting about the mapping data recently released by Elections Canada.

Since Elections Canada only released the shape-files, HomeZilla.ca has converted them all to KML format readable by Google Earth and Google Maps.

[Yes, I recognize that last sentence would make absolutely no sense to anyone who hadn't studied Geographic Information Systems even a little bit, but trust me: it's huge, and a really appreciated simplification for lay users.]

It is a very large compressed file, available for download from their website. I'll just repeat the comment here, so you get all the details correctly. Over to you sandman:

We noticed many people were having a hard time with the ShapeFile so we have created a KML file that people can you in Google Earth.

You can download it from the HomeZilla site.

Warning: It is a big KML file 19M compressed, 44M uncompressed.

The government license and orginal ShapeFiles are located here.

So, again, many many thanks for this contribution. OK, mappers: get to it!

Labels: Elections Canada Data, Open Government Data

Further to the last big roundup, two readers have been kind enough to get in touch with some updates:

• Kenora, ON - A reader writes to confirm that, indeed, former M.P. Roger Valley was acclaimed as the Liberal candidate last weekend. Also, NDP Jack Layton will be in town next weekend for his party's nomination meeting (still trying to confirm the exact date). Their 2008 candidate Tania Cameron has filed nomination papers, as we reported earlier, and no other name has emerged as yet. The riding is currently represented by first-term Conservative M.P. Greg Rickford.
• Nepean – Carleton, ON - Another reader has got in touch to pass along that lawyer Ryan Keon is running for the Liberal nomination in this riding. No other information as to a meeting date or other possible candidates is available. The seat is currently held by three-term Conservative M.P. Pierre Poilievre, who defeated former Liberal M.P. and current Liberal nomination candidate in neighbouring Ottawa West – Nepean, ON, David Pratt. Also nominated is first-time candidate Jean-Luc Cooke for the Green Party.

We love to receive updates from readers about candidates and nomination news, so if you know what's going on in your area, drop me a quick note. And then you can follow the Pundits' Guide on Twitter for all the latest.

Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Liberals, NDP

[See update below on Ottawa West – Nepean, ON]

Here are some notes that have accumulated over the past few days while I tried to catch up on other work. The weather has not been the greatest for barbecues, but parties do have to soldier on somehow:

• Kenora, ON - I'm thinking that no news is good news for former Liberal M.P. Roger Valley's effort to regain his party's nomination in this riding. The nomination meeting was scheduled for July 11 on the Liberal Party's Ontario section website (opens meeting notice in PDF). I've been checking the Kenora Daily Miner and News since then for any news, and have put feelers out on Twitter, to contacts in the Liberal party and to friends in Kenora, all without luck. Let's assume that if there was a contested nomination, we'd have heard about it by now. I've added him to the database as acclaimed on July 11 unless I hear otherwise. The riding was won from Valley by first-time Conservative M.P. Greg Rickford in 2008, and has featured 3-way races and close margins in two of the last three elections. In other Kenora news, 2008 NDP first nations candidate Tania Cameron has also just taken out papers in the hopes of running for her party once again.
  
• Bruce – Grey – Owen Sound, ON - Liberals in this riding are not waiting to find out whether Elizabeth May plans to run here or not; they wanted to move early to nominate a new candidate says the Owen Sound Sun Times. Candidate Kimberly Love has a background in journalism and communications, and was acclaimed as expected on July 14, the Meaford Express reports. The riding is currently represented by three-term Conservative M.P. Larry Miller, and was also one of the 5 ridings in which the Green Party achieved a second-place finish, in their second-best vote share of the last election (after May's riding of Central Nova, NS).
• Markham – Unionville, ON - Nominations opened for the Conservative Party in this riding north of Toronto last Wednesday, and Markham regional councillor Gordon Landon is throwing his hat in, writes YorkRegion.com. After the three-week opening, the riding association will hold a nomination meeting 21 days later. The riding is currently held by four-term Liberal M.P. John McCallum, who has won it easily since 2000.
• Pontiac, QC - A commenter on an earlier post relays that the Liberal nomination meeting in this riding is now scheduled for some time in August. This is said to have a negative impact for one of the candidates, for an unknown reason, and is speculated to rule another candidate out of the race. If anyone has more details, I'm all ears.
• Oakville, ON - From Twitter we learn that Connie Laurin-Bowie (@claurinbowie) is running for the Liberal nomination in this riding west of Mississauga. She tweeted me that no meeting date has been scheduled as yet. The riding was won by first-time Conservative M.P. Terence Young in 2008 on his second try against former Liberal M.P. Bonnie Brown, in a case where more 2006 Liberal voters stayed home in the last election than switched to the Conservatives or Green Party.
• Churchill, MB - Just west of Kenora, ON is this huge northern Manitoba riding, which changed hands during the last election. Liberals have called their nomination meeting there for Saturday, July 18, and so far only MKO grand chief Sydney Garrioch has declared, reports Mia Rabson of the Winnipeg Free Press in her Capital Chronicles blog. This likely means that former Liberal M.P. Tina Keeper is not planning to run again after all, dropping our count of former Liberal MPs running or said to be interested in running to 18. The seat is currently represented by first-term NDP M.P. Niki Ashton. Rabson identifies Churchill as having the largest aboriginal population in the country, which is true when ranking ridings by the count (52,405 identify as aboriginal out of a total population of 74,985 for that census measure in 2006, or 65%). However, the riding with the highest percentage of the population identifying as aboriginal in 2006 (the measure I've used here at the Pundits' Guide) is Nunavut at 85%, but of course based on a much smaller total population. Kenora, ON by the way, ranks 5th by the raw count and #6 in the percent rankings. (h/t to the Liberal Scarf blog for finding this clipping and sending it along)
• Winnipeg South, MB - Eagle-eyed Liberal blogger, Liberal Scarf, also noticed a comment in this Winnipeg Free Press story, which suggests that Terry Duguid is planning to run for the Liberal nomination in this riding currently held by two-term Conservative Métis M.P. Rod Bruinooge. Mr. Duguid has run for the party federally twice before in nearby Kildonan – St. Paul, MB.
  
• Halifax, NS - Also from the Liberal Scarf, news of a contested Liberal nomination race unfolding in the seat of first-time NDP M.P. Megan Leslie. Dalhousie University Medicine Faculty member Stan Kutcher and businessman Chris Crowell are in the running so far. No date appears to have been set for a nomination meeting here so far. Leslie retained the seat for her party with 47% of the vote over a split opposition last time around, after former NDP Leader Alexa McDonough retired.
  
• Glengarry – Prescott – Russell, ON - Again, thanks to the Liberal Scarf for this clipping about a 4-way race developing for the Liberal nomination in this eastern Ontario riding on the Québec border (and the home of Pundits' Guide power source, Beau's All Natural Brewing Company). The riding is currently represented by two-term Conservative M.P. Pierre Lemieux, and challenging him will be one of Russell Mayor Ken Hill, assistant Crown attorney Julie Bourgeois, Hawkesbury councillor Roch Greffe, and Liberal insider Maryanne Kampouris as reported here earlier. Not running is 2008 Liberal candidate Dan Boudria, who will be unable to continue his quest to replace his father, former Liberal M.P. Don Boudria, due to the demands of his current position in the federal public service.
• Mississauga South, ON - 2008 Conservative candidate Hugh Arrison is organizing for another run at the nomination here, reports the Liberal Scarf. The riding has been won by increasing small margins by long-standing Liberal incumbent Paul Szabo since the two conservative parties reunited, and was 38 of 42 close two-way races in the last election. No date has been set for a nomination meeting as yet.
• Ottawa West – Nepean, ON - Another former Liberal M.P. is now facing two battles to regain a seat in Parliament. David Pratt had moved over from his former riding of Nepean – Carleton, ON to run against Conservative John Baird in 2008, winning an appointment from then-Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion in order to do so. We reported here earlier that Pratt was planning to run there again. However, as the Ottawa Citizen reported last night, he is not going get the nomination so easily this time, since Telus executive Janet Yale (earlier thought to be interested in Ottawa Centre, ON) is now moving to challenge Pratt for the Liberal nomination. No date is set for a nomination meeting as yet, however Pratt is anticipating the possibility of a fall election and has returned early from work in Baghdad to contest the nomination.
  
  UPDATE: A late-breaking story from the Ottawa Citizen quotes Ms. Yale as demurring from a race in Ottawa West – Nepean, ON, and says she is still consulting with friends about whether to run in Ottawa Centre, ON where she lives. Pratt is staying in Baghdad. Former Liberal nomination candidate Scott Bradley, however, has confirmed his interest in running again in Ottawa Centre.
  

Thanks to readers for sending along news clippings, Facebook event invitations, and just staying in touch. If you have nomination news to share, please send me a quick email, and then join the Pundits' Guide on Twitter to keep up with all the latest.

Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Conservatives, Liberals, NDP

While I assemble a nominations update, I thought readers might be interested to read about three new potential actors in Canadian electoral politics:

• National Progressive Conservative Party of Canada - I saw this linked to in one of the threads at the Blogging Tories forums (sorry I can't find which one now, had a little computer crash since then). The website just contains an email address to contact for further information.
• The Pirate Party of Canada - Their main issue seems to be copyright laws, but they already have an online presence and set of discussion fora. I found them because someone in one of the forums linked to my site.
• The True North Party of Canada - Looks to be a new libertarian party trying to get going. I heard about it through a blogpost at the LangleyPolitics.com blog.

Here are the requirements to register a new political party with Elections Canada. The major hurdle is getting 250 members to join and sign a declaration that they support the party becoming registered.

As has been mentioned here several times, I'm working on getting the older election results into shape to include in this database. One thing you'll notice about the 1993 results is the very large number of political parties that ran candidates in that election, and the large number of candidates who ran in each riding. I wonder if we're moving in the same direction again.

Labels: Political Parties

A website that many readers might find interesting but may not know about is the International Elections forum on the "US Election Atlas" site.

Right now there's a thread on the go where various amateur and professional map-makers are taking the polling division shape files released the other week and making riding and even city-wide maps. It's great stuff, and they are having a lot of fun with it all. Go and take a look.

Thanks to commenter "the506" for bringing this work to my attention.

Labels: Data Analysis

It's nowhere covered in the MSM, blogosphere or twitterdom, so I had to resort to the good old fashioned telephone to get the story:

• Winnipeg South Centre, MB - Air Canada pilot Ray Hall won the contested Conservative nomination in this riding last night, defeating developer Hart Mallin. As a small consolation for Mallin, at least he won't have to run against his cousin, four-term Liberal M.P. Anita Neville, now. Congratulations to all the candidates for putting their names forward for public office.
• Scarborough – Guildwood, ON - Meantime, a new Conservative candidate has appeared in the Elections Canada database. 2008 candidate Chuck Konkel was renominated by acclamation in this riding last May 29. The riding is currently held by five-term Liberal M.P. John N. McKay, who won last time with over 50% of the vote.

If you have nomination or candidate news, don't hold back: jot me a note so I can fill others in. And then follow the Pundits' Guide on Twitter for all the latest.

Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Conservatives

While we're waiting for the result of tonight's contested Conservative nomination in Winnipeg South Centre, NB, let's catch up on the rest of the news, from west to east this time:

• Nanaimo – Cowichan, BC - Two Liberals, one from Duncan and one from Ladysmith, are said to be interested in their party's nomination after the riding association AGM at the end of June, reports the Ladysmith Chronicle. No date has been set for a nomination meeting as yet. This Vancouver Island riding, once held by Tommy Douglas as federal NDP Leader in the early 1970s, is currently represented by three-term NDP M.P. Jean Crowder, who won it in 2004 after two-term Canadian Alliance M.P. Reed Elley stepped down to take care of some health concerns. Elley sat out the the next election, but returned as Conservative candidate in 2008, coming within 7.5% of Crowder, in spite of outspending her (91% of the spending limit to 81%). Liberals fell to 7.5% and 4th place behind the Green Party here in 2008, but are hoping to improve in the forthcoming election.
• York – Simcoe, ON - Christian Heritage Party candidate Vicki Gunn was nominated by her riding association's annual general meeting this past April 27, and will be running in her fourth election. The riding is currently represented by two-term Conservative M.P. Peter Van Loan. Thanks to a reader for taking the time to pass along this information.
  
• Lanark – Frontenac – Lennox and Addington, ON - Dave Remington is now officially nominated as the Liberal candidate in this riding between Ottawa and Kingston, after Tuesday night's meeting. Remington joins long-time Conservative M.P. Scott Reid who was automatically renominated as the incumbent last May.
  
• Stormont – Dundas – South Glengarry, ON - Cornwall city councillor and SDG Legal Clinic staff member Bernadette Clement is considering a run for the Liberal nomination in this eastern Ontario riding located along the St. Lawrence Seaway, reports the Cornwall Standard Freeholder. A nomination meeting is expected to take place in early September, and Clement says that she will make a final decision by the middle of this month. If she does and is successful, she will be facing three-term Conservative M.P. Guy Lauzon, who is having a busy summer with the Cornwall border crossing issue. Liberals last won the seat under party whip Bob Kilger in 2000, who lost to Lauzon in 2004.
• Pontiac, QC - As we earlier reported here, former Liberal M.P. Robert Bertrand does indeed seem interested in making a run for the Liberal nomination in his old riding, according to 96,1 Renfrew radio. Already running are 2008 candidate Cindy Duncan McMillan and former Liberal Party national director Greg Fergus. The riding is currently represented by two-term Conservative M.P. Lawrence Cannon.
  
• Outremont, QC - National Newswatch carried a clipping from the Montréal Suburban this morning, detailing two candidates said to be actively organizating for the Liberal nomination in the only NDP-held riding in Québec, and one other star candidate being wooed. We earlier reported that former La Presse columnist and Le Soleil editor Alain Dubuc was being courted by Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff to run here, and the Suburban is reporting this name as well. Organizing for the nomination in the meantime is 2008 candidate (and well-known Québec actor) Sébastian Dhavernas, and former Liberal M.P. Martin Cauchon may also be considering a run once again as well. Many Liberals consider winning this seat back to be "the number 1 target" in Québec, particularly as Dhavernas came within 2,300 votes of NDP M.P. Thomas Mulcair in spite of running a less than fully funded campaign (just 59% of the spending limit vs. 88% by Mulcair).
  
• Jeanne-Le Ber, QC - A blog commenter is reporting that the Liberal nomination in this riding may be settled by an appointment to former Bell executive Marc Bruneau. We reported Bruneau's interest in running here last month. The riding is currently held by two-term Bloc Québécois M.P. Thierry St-Cyr, but was also targetted by the NDP in 2008, and wound up meeting the criteria for both a close two-way and four-way race.
  
• Brome – Missisquoi, QC -It sounds a bit bold for a party that won just 9% of the vote in the last election, but NDP Leader Jack Layton told La Voix de l'Est and the Sherbrooke Record that his party would be targetting this riding in the next election, with their 2008 candidate Christelle Bogosta set to run again, and because of the party's strong riding association. Certainly area Liberals are taking serious aim at the riding after nominating former Liberal M.P. Denis Paradis the other week. The riding is currently represented by Bloc Québécois M.P. Christian Ouellet, who at age 75 is currently the oldest Member of the House of Commons, but intended last we read to be renominated this fall for another run. (h/t the Liberal Scarf blog, who appears to be following more than just Liberal nominations now)
• Compton – Stanstead, QC - The Liberal nomination meeting has been called next door for July 23rd 22nd in this Eastern Townships riding, and 2008 candidate William Hogg (as reported here earlier) seems set to give it another try. The riding is currently held by three-term Bloc Québécois M.P. France Bonsant, but Hogg was able to gain a second-place finish after the Conservatives dropped about 5 points in support from 2006, much of it apparently to the NDP. Hogg's 2008 campaign spent considerably less than previous Liberal outings in this riding, at 21% of the limit vs. 71-74% in 2004-06 and certainly less than the 50-55% typically spent by the Bloc in this riding. Thanks to a reader for sending in the link.
  
• Montmorency – Charlevoix – Haute-Côte-Nord, QC - Bloc Whip Michel Guimond, who is one of the 6 original Bloc Québécois M.P.s sent to Ottawa in 1993, is ready for his 7th federal run whenever the next election is held, he tells Le Soleil. Guimond is calling Bloc M.P.s back to work in mid-August, and says the party has another 30 nomination meetings planned for early September before the Commons resumes sitting (currently scheduled for Monday, September 14).

In other news, there is some further speculation about possible Liberal dream candidates at the Liberal Scarf blog.

Also, a reader writes to advise that the Green Party's internal candidate recruitment process is fairly well advanced, with 76 of 101 candidate applications being nominated, acclaimed or appointed thus far, and many other candidates identified who have yet to complete the required paperwork. Many provincial BC candidates are set to run federally, all but 5 holes are slotted in the prairies, 2/3rds of Ontario ridings have nominated or identified candidates, and Québec candidate interviews are scheduled to be conducted soon. Of course, without candidate names attached to specific ridings with nomination dates, I can't enter then into the database, and therefore they are not counted in the tables on the site's main page.

Also, New Westminster – Coquitlam, BC Conservative Party members will have two chances to meet their 4 prospective nomination candidates next week, one on Monday in New Westminster and the other on Wednesday in Coquitlam (full details available here). The contested nomination meeting will be taking place on Saturday, July 25. Thanks to a reader for sending along this information.

Well, rats, I was hoping news would have arrived by now as to the winner of the contested Conservative nomination in Winnipeg. Since it hasn't, I'll have to get back to you on that tomorrow.

Meantime, if you have nomination or prospective candidate information to share with Guide readers, drop me a line with whatever you've got. Then you can follow the Pundits' Guide on Twitter for all the latest.

Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Bloc Québécois, Conservatives, Greens, Liberals, NDP, New Westminster – Coquitlam

Your Guide is quite thrilled to report this morning that Elections Canada has now made polling division boundary shape files available for free through GeoGratis!!

OK, about three people like me just started jumping up and down for joy. For the rest of you, I'll try and explain in normal English what very nice thing Elections Canada has just done for us.

If a picture is worth a thousand words, then a coloured electoral map is worth an entire relational database. Pouring over tables of numbers is hard, but seeing colours on a map tells a much richer story very easily.

So, what does it take to make the map? Well, you need to be able to draw the boundaries of things onto base maps. These are the boundary files. They give you each of the dots (as a point of longitude and latitude) that you need to connect in order to draw a city or a federal riding or a census tract onto the base map. Then you can programmatically colour in those shapes with meaningful colours, and put little markers on them in various places if you like too.

Various government jurisdictions, which have of course collected all that data using our tax dollars, are deciding at various paces to make it available to the public. Not everyone has the time or inclination to learn how to use it or what to do with it, but a lot of people do and the Google Maps API is making it easier and easier to create some very interesting "mash-ups" of mapping and other data.

Until this point, Elections Canada had only made boundary files of the federal ridings public. But as any political junkie will tell you, they want the poll-by-poll data to really make sense of what happened in a certain riding. Elections Canada does publish the poll-by-poll numeric results, but until now, THERE WAS NO WAY TO ACTUALLY KNOW WHERE THOSE POLLS WERE (unless you were a senior party activist with access to the data, a university student or professor, or someone with extra piles of cash sitting around to buy the physical maps, and tons of time on hand to construct your own boundary files).

This frustration led me to write to the Chief Electoral Officer in April (apparently joining many others, as I discovered), and request that such data be made available for free at the government's online depot of Geographic Information Systems information, called GeoGratis. The Elections Canada Geography Division agreed, and last night I received an email saying that the data had arrived. Yippee!

It's available in "shape file" format (this is the main proprietary format for boundary files, which can be converted if you know what you're doing into XML data formats usable by Google Maps, or PostGIS-compatible database formats if you're familiar with PostgreSQL). You can find the files and supporting documentation here. GIS files can be pretty big, which is probably why they're specially hosted at the GeoGratis site at Natural Resources Canada, and not on the Elections Canada site itself.

I'd been tinkering with this a bit already, and hope to add some functionality along those lines to the Pundits' Guide (starting with the 4 by-election ridings), but first I have to get some paying client work out of the way, and finish up with getting the 1988-1993 election results proofread and entered. So, stay tuned, and meantime: Bravo Elections Canada for your commitment to Open Government Data!! Oh, and thanks to a reader for passing this along by email last night.

Labels: Elections Canada Data, Open Government Data

A few items to report, starting with the results of last night's nomination meeting:

• Notre-Dame-de-Grâce – Lachine, QC - Well, actually, to no-one's surprise five-term Liberal M.P. Marlene Jennings was renominated by acclamation last night in her riding. Jennings vote share may have dropped slightly from 60%-ish to 44%, but no opposition candidate has ever come close to touching her.
• Saint-Laurent – Cartierville, QC - Liberal Québec Lieutenant and Bourassa M.P. Denis Coderre refused to confirm to La Presse Canadienne last night whether former Liberal leader Stéphane Dion would be running again, saying only that a meeting on the forthcoming election was to be held today. Readers tell me that Coderre's comments should be read in light of the past relationship between the two, and that Dion was planning as recently as May to run again.
• Longueuil – Pierre-Boucher, QC - 2008 Liberal candidate in neighbouring Saint-Bruno – Saint-Hubert, QC Pierre Diamond also announced last night that he will be seeking the Liberal nomination in this south-shore riding. Diamond is the second Liberal candidate to surface with links to the provincial ADQ, after former ADQ MNA Claude Morin was nominated in the Beauce, QC last month. Diamond's son, Simon-Pierre Diamond, is ADQ executive director, and Coderre has been musing for awhile about making inroads with disaffected adéquistes, which has not gone unnoticed by at least one Liberal blogger.
  
• Thornhill, ON - A little bird tweeted in my ear that things are about to get very interesting for the Liberals in this 905 riding northwest of Toronto. We earlier reported that former Liberal M.P. Susan Kadis was considering whether to run again against first-time Conservative M.P. Peter Kent. The seat is known to have the largest concentration of adherents of the Jewish faith (36.63% in 2001, the last census in which religion data was reported), however it also rated in the top sixth of ridings for visible minority populations in 2006, and boasted the 19th highest after-tax family income.
  
• Saskatoon – Rosetown – Biggar, SK - A reader writes to say that three-time NDP candidate Nettie Wiebe is set to give it one more try in the forthcoming election. The former president of the National Farmers' Union had increased her vote share from 26% to 44% between 2004 and 2008, and came within just 262 votes (the 12th closest race of the last election) of winning the seat won briefly by her brother-in-law Dennis Gruending, who kept the seat for the NDP during a 1999 by-election but then lost it to the Alliance/Conservatives in 2000. The riding is currently represented by first-time Conservative M.P. Kelly Block, who took it over from retiring three-term Conservative M.P. Carol Skelton.
  

Some general items of nomination news:

• Denis Coderre also told TVA last night that a further 15 Liberal nomination meetings would be concluded by the end of July. He separately told Le Devoir meanwhile that 30 meetings would be held between now and Labour Day.
• Reaction from various parts of the country, now under consideration by Green Party leader Elizabeth May, appeared this morning.
• Sources within the New Democrats also tell me that the NDP has lifted its freeze on remaining nominations, having already lifted it for incumbents and by-election ridings last month. Dippers are discussing their dream tickets for various east-coast ridings and western cities on the Accidental Deliberations blog and a Babble thread. [UPDATE: And a reader writes to advise that indeed NDP Riding Presidents have been contacted by the party office about the opening of nominations, and what the process will be.]
  

Send the latest nomination news to the Pundits' Guide, and we'll pass it along to others. You can follow all the latest details by following us on Twitter as well.

Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Liberals, NDP

From downtown Montréal to the Gulf Islands, we got news. Starting from east to west, like usual:

• Mount Royal, QC - I've been hunting for a clipping to confirm it, but I guess it's not so newsworthy that five-term Liberal M.P. Irwin Cotler would be renominated by acclamation at his June 30 meeting, in this long-time Liberal riding in the centre of Montréal. I'm going out on a limb and saying he probably won it Tuesday night, and am entering him into the database.
• Brossard – La Prairie, QC - Former one-term Bloc Québécois M.P. Marcel Lussier will try to win back his seat, the Brossard Éclair is reporting, which he narrowly lost to first-time Liberal M.P. Alexandra Mendès in the last election. A nomination meeting is expected to be held in the fall. Mendès, the first Liberal incumbent to be renominated this past June 14, was elected in 2008 by just 69 votes, in a surprising upset that saw her low-spending campaign (38% of the limit) nevertheless prevail over both Lussier (who spent 62% of the limit), and first-time Conservative candidate Maurice Brossard, who outspent them both (at 70%) and cut into Lussier's vote just enough to turn the riding into a three-way race which saw Lussier fall behind Mendès.
  
• Northumberland – Quinte West, ON - With former Liberal M.P. and 2008 candidate Paul Macklin bowing out of the race, two new candidates have stepped forward, reports NorthumberlandToday.com. Middle school teacher Andrew McFadyen and past-president of the area Chamber of Commerce Kim Rudd will be facing off in a meeting likely to be scheduled for the fall. The riding is currently represented by two-term Conservative M.P. Rick Norlock, and has also nominated Stan Grizzle as its Green Party candidate. h/t The Liberal Scarf
• Winnipeg South Centre, MB - Conservatives are gearing up for a contested nomination meeting this coming Thursday between Hart Mallin and Raymond Hall, which would be made all the more interesting if this rumour made in a comment on the Manitoba "PolicyFrog" blog were true: the commenter had heard that lawyer and former provincial Liberal candidate Paul Hesse is apparently leader Michael Ignatieff's preferred candidate to replace Liberal M.P. Anita Neville when she announces her retirement later this summer. Now, last we heard, Neville had told the Free Press' Mia Rabson that she had met the criteria for an uncontested renomination and everything appeared to be full steam ahead for the four-term M.P. If you know otherwise, please pass it on (hint, hint).
  
• Palliser, SK - Lawyer Noah Evanchuk is hoping to translate the energy from his recent involvement in the Ryan Meili provincial NDP leadership campaign into a bid for a federal seat, reports the Accidental Deliberations blog, and was apparently discussing his bid with NDP Leader Jack Layton at a Regina barbecue yesterday, says the Louis Riel Trail blog. No nomination date has been set as yet, and challengers are still possible. The seat is currently held by first-time Conservative M.P. Ray Boughen, who told Discover Moose Jaw late last week that he intended to run again "if an election is called in the not too distant future". Boughen assumed the seat after the resignation of former M.P. Dave Batters, whose tragic suicide earlier this week shocked and momentarily united the political class in their grief and disbelief. Batters' funeral is today, and he is being warmly remembered in Moose Jaw and elsewhere. [UPDATE: Buckdog reports that other Meili campaign activists are set to announce federal bids in Regina – Qu'Appelle, SK and Regina – Lumsden – Lake Centre, SK soon as well].
• Edmonton Centre, AB - Lots of activity and speculation in the provincial capital this past week, following on Lewis Cardinal's announcement last week for the NDP, and the Town Hall Meeting and Canada Day visit of Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff. Blogger Ken Chapman has also heard that 2008 candidate Jim Wachowich is taking himself out of the running, but that a former provincial candidate Mary MacDonald is hitting the pavement in his place. And after speaking with Wachowich himself, Daveberta.ca is confirming this morning that indeed he is not running again, but plans to support whoever the Liberal candidate is. Daveberta, Alex Abboud and the conservative Alberta Aardvark blog all attended Ignatieff's town hall and have a full rundown. Given that Ignatieff apparently said "that he would pull the plug if there were not significant changes to EI saying that he will 'not settle for anything other than substantial reform'," the Edmonton Centre Liberal association is apparently set to move its planned September nomination meeting forward.
  
  Meantime, the Calgary Herald's Jason Fekete checked in with political leaders at the Stampede on their state of election readiness, and reports Liberal Senator Grant Mitchell as saying that "the Grits haven't yet nominated any candidates in Alberta's 28 ridings but expect to have all hopefuls secured by the end of August. 'Minority governments generally are unstable and you can see where this one is particularly unstable,' Mitchell said. 'We're absolutely focused on being ready for a fall election, and we feel very good about it'." NDP and Green Party officials expect to be running most of their 2008 federal Alberta candidates again, Fekete also learned.
• New Westminster – Coquitlam, BC - The Conservative nomination meeting date has now been set for Saturday, July 25, Tri-CityNews.com is reporting, and although Paul Forseth has withdrawn from the race, four candidates remain in the running, including Diana Dilworth and Lorraine Brett as reported here numerous times, and two new names for me: Mark Lea-McKeown, who is currently a member of the Burnaby – New Westminster Conservative riding executive, and Andy Wickey, the owner of an insurance and investment services firm in Coquitlam and former member of the Royal Ceylon Air Force. More from the Tenth to the Fraser blog here.
  
• Saanich – Gulf Islands, BC - Green Party Leader Elizabeth May might have told the Chronicle-Herald on Tuesday that she is still considering any of 5 ridings to run in, but insider speculation is centring on this west coast seat as the likely target for several reasons. They include a Facebook group which recently popped up and has been joined by 68 people including key members of May's inner circle, while the Facebook group encouraging her to run in Guelph has only 4 members. Other signals are said to include her lengthy interview with the local Island Tides newspaper (largish PDF file), her recent book signing on Saltspring Island, and her planned attendance at the upcoming Saanich – Gulf Islands Green Party district association AGM on July 9. Numerous Liberal bloggers are strongly encouraging her away from Guelph and to head out west (though not all), and NDPers are Babble'ing over two threads about her chances there and what kind of opposition she might face. One anonymous commenter on the Calgary Grit's post claims to have heard that five-term Conservative M.P. Gary Lunn might not run again, but I certainly haven't found any documentary evidence of that (although again I'm always happy to receive any news by email, hint, hint). May meanwhile has not confirmed any of the speculation but did tell a Calgary fundraiser earlier this week that she would be running in a rural riding, the WesternStandard.ca is reporting.
  

Upcoming nomination meetings this week include Liberals in Notre-Dame-de-Grâce – Lachine, QC tomorrow night where five-term M.P. Marlene Jennings is expected to be acclaimed, and again in Lanark – Frontenac – Lennox and Addington, ON on Tuesday, where the Napanee Guide reports that 2008 candidate David Remington is the only declared candidate; and Conservatives as mentioned above, at a contested meeting on Thursday in Winnipeg South Centre, MB, a riding they're apparently targetting in the forthcoming election.

Reader contributions to nomination news help spread the word across the country, so drop me a line and pass along what's cooking in your backyard. Then follow the Pundits' Guide on Twitter for all the latest.

Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Bloc Québécois, Conservatives, Greens, Liberals, NDP, New Westminster – Coquitlam

At the end of 2008, the Liberal Party of Canada was solvent, but just slightly less so than the NDP, and liquid, but just slightly less so than the Conservatives, just-posted financial returns confirm. The party recorded a year-end Net Worth of $934.6K (down from $4.5M in 2006 and $2.8M in 2007), and Net Current Assets of $430.3K (down from $4M in 2006 and $2.3M in 2007), compared with an NDP Net Worth of $952K and Conservative Net Current Assets of $463.8K.

The Liberal return was indeed filed before the Tuesday midnight deadline, sources confirm, but was not posted on the Elections Canada website until around noon Friday. Comparable numbers for the other parties were reported here earlier.

While the Liberals carried outstanding bank loans of $11.2M at the end of the calendar year, all but $2M or so were covered by the $9.4M election rebate it was due to receive in the new year.

Details of the party's loans and lines-of-credit were also reported (with comparable details included):

• The Liberals borrowed $11.8M in a series of loans from a consortium of Big 5 Banks at rates between 3.5% and 4.5%. In addition, they established a $900K line of credit at 3.5% from the Royal Bank of Canada.
• The Conservatives' borrowed $15M from the CIBC at between 5.5% and 6.25% (reported as Prime+1.5% in their financial statements)
• The NDP borrowed $14M from the Citizens' Bank of Canada at 3.5%
• The Bloc renegotiated its current line of credit to a maximum of $1.1M at Prime+1%, and arranged for an additional election line of credit worth $3.5M at the same interest rate, guaranteed by their election rebate
• The Greens borrowed $1.15M from TD Canada Trust at 5.75%, and another 35 loans from individuals totalling $1.57M at rates from 4.75% to 7%.

The party borrowed less than the Conservatives and NDP, but was apparantly able to secure rates more favourable than the former, and some as good as that secured by the latter. Indeed the Conservative Party appears to have paid higher interest rates than any of the other parties, although it's not clear to me how a variable rate loan (for e.g., Prime+1.5%) would need to be reported on Part 2c of the Elections Canada Annual Party financial return. If the rate dropped after the loan was first obtained, Part 2c does not seem to permit the reporting of a variable rate, so we have to read the financial statements together with the financial return. Note 6 to the 2008 Liberal financial statement, for example, documents $6.5M in demand bank loans payable at Prime+1%, up to $4.5M in a line of credit payable at Prime, and an $833K balance on its older operating loan payable at Prime+3%.

Annual contribution totals and counts were also reported, showing little variation from the sum of the quarterly contributions, but of course with much more accurate counts of the numbers of contributors by category. Those figures are tabulated below, however while every party but the Bloc showed a record volume of contributions going back to 2004 (when the rules and reporting methods changed), and even the Bloc had a much better year than the last two, although not as good as 2004 and 2005, the Liberal total of $5.8M fell well below its earlier, much better years of 2005 ($8.3M) and 2006 ($9.0M).

Contribution Amounts, Counts and Average Contribution Size, by Party and Donor Category, 2008 Financial Year

2008	Lib	NDP	Grn	BQ	Cons
$ TOT num $ avg	5,811,492 30,890 $188.14	5,412,940 29,732 $182.06	1,621,532 17,288 $93.80	713,085 7,445 $95.78	21,179,483 112,184 $188.79
$ < $20 num $ avg	12,100 1,142 $10.60	878 101 $8.69	107 20 $5.35	--	--
$ <= $200 num $ avg	1,899,700 22,242 $85.41	2,040,925 21,763 $93.78	840,492 15,479 $54.30	421,280 6,760 $62.32	8,494,070 86,149 $98.60
$ > $200 num $ avg	3,899,692 7,506 $519.54	3,371,137 7,969 $423.03	780,933 1,809 $431.69	291,805 685 $425.99	12,685,412 26,035 $487.24

As we remarked on earlier for the Conservatives, Liberal totals for contributions of $200 and below have remained fairly stable from year to year (they usually stay around $1.5M to the Conservatives' $8M, but showed an increase to $1.9M this past year), but again it's their contributions over $200 which spiked during 2005 and 2006 and then fell off again afterwards. The other parties reporting to date tend to see increases both over and under $200 during election years.

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Labels: Bloc Québécois, Conservatives, Greens, Liberals, NDP, Party Finance

Elections Canada has just paid the second quarterly party subsidy allowances to registered parties who qualified based on their 2008 election campaign performance. The amounts are newly adjusted for inflation as of April 1, 2009 and now reflect $1.998/vote obtained in the recent general election.

Thus, each vote obtained in the 2008 General Election is now worth $2.00 annually to the political party of your choice.

Here's the history of payments (I've reversed the table to put the newest payments at the top, since it's a little easier to read that way).

Annual Allowances to Registered Parties, by Payment Date

Period	Lib	NDP	Grn	BQ	Cons	Paid
2009 - Q2	$1,815,230	$1,256,701	$468,455	$689,478	$2,602,581	01-Jul-09
2009 - Q1	$1,773,903	$1,228,089	$457,790	$673,781	$2,543,328	01-Apr-09
2008 - Q4	$2,187,074	$1,264,370	$324,231	$758,350	$2,623,890	05-Jan-09
2008 - Q3	$2,187,074	$1,264,370	$324,231	$758,350	$2,623,890	02-Oct-08
2008 - Q2	$2,187,074	$1,264,370	$324,231	$758,350	$2,623,890	03-Jul-08
2008 - Q1	$2,140,040	$1,237,179	$317,258	$742,041	$2,567,462	07-Apr-08
2007 - Q4	$2,140,040	$1,237,179	$317,258	$742,041	$2,567,462	03-Jan-08
2007 - Q3	$2,140,040	$1,237,179	$317,258	$742,041	$2,567,462	02-Oct-07
2007 - Q2	$2,140,040	$1,237,179	$317,258	$742,041	$2,567,462	05-Jul-07
2007 - Q1	$2,096,926	$1,212,255	$310,867	$727,092	$2,515,737	04-Apr-07
2006 - Q4	$2,096,926	$1,212,255	$310,867	$727,092	$2,515,737	05-Jan-07
2006 - Q3	$2,096,926	$1,212,255	$310,867	$727,092	$2,515,737	04-Oct-06
2006 - Q2	$2,096,926	$1,212,255	$310,867	$727,092	$2,515,737	07-Jul-06
2006 - Q1	$2,282,186	$974,374	$266,686	$769,708	$1,841,145	06-Apr-06
2005 - Q4	$2,282,186	$974,374	$266,686	$769,708	$1,841,145	01-Jan-06
2005 - Q3	$2,282,186	$974,374	$266,686	$769,708	$1,841,145	01-Oct-05
2005 - Q2	$2,282,186	$974,374	$266,686	$769,708	$1,841,145	01-Jul-05
2005 - Q1	$2,240,772	$956,692	$261,847	$755,740	$1,807,734	01-Apr-05
2004 - Q4	$0	$956,692	$261,847	$322,846	$0.00	07-Jan-05
2004 - Q3	($49,646)	$12,958	$261,847	$0	($563,630)	07-Oct-04
2004 - All	$9,191,054	$1,914,269		$2,411,022	$8,476,872	01-Jan-04

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Labels: Party Finance

From a news release just added to the Elections Canada website:

Registered Political Parties Submit 2008 Fiscal Returns

OTTAWA, Thursday, July 2, 2009

• The deadline for registered parties to file financial transaction returns for 2008 was midnight, June 30, 2009. These returns are reports on contributions, loans, transfers, by-election expenses and unpaid claims. Party financial statements are also included with the returns.
• The Chief Electoral Officer of Canada may grant a deadline extension if a political party applies for one before the statutory deadline. As of June 30, 2009, the following political parties have applied for and been granted an extension:
  • Christian Heritage Party of Canada
  • First Peoples National Party of Canada
  • Libertarian Party of Canada
  • Progressive Canadian Party
• As soon as possible after they are received, Elections Canada posts the returns for 2008 in a searchable database at www.elections.ca.

Elections Canada is an independent body set up by Parliament.

- 30 -

As of a minute ago, the Liberal Party's return was still not posted. They had until midnight Tuesday to submit it, and were not granted an extension. Thus, as we previously assumed, it must be in the process of getting ready to be posted.

Labels: Elections Canada, Liberals, Party Finance

The Chief Electoral Officer is now advocating in favour of moving to online voting. Many of us who've worked in both IT and election campaigns have an idea of just how complicated an undertaking this would be ... from the perspectives of both security and of allowing the vote to be scrutinized.

Someone who's taken the time and trouble to explain the problems to non-IT professionals without dumbing it down is former Calgary West, AB Independent candidate Kirk Schmidt (also the very first person I didn't know who found the Pundits' Guide and wrote to me about it). Schmidt has written an excellent guest post at the Enlightened Savage blog, which is mandatory reading for anyone thinking that online voting is a panacea to turnout problems.

Labels: Elections Canada, Online Voting

At the end of last year the NDP was the most solvent of the parties but the least liquid, 2008 party financial returns show. Liberal figures are not yet available, but the NDP was the only party posting a positive Net Worth ($952K). However it also showed the largest gap in Net Current Assets (-$3.46M).

The Conservative Party reported a negative Net Worth of -$1.29M, but showed Net Current Assets of $464K. The Bloc Québécois shows a slightly negative Net Worth of $-9.8K, and slightly negative Net Current Assets of -$16.3K, while the Green Party reported a negative Net Worth of -$887K, but Net Current Assets of $355K.

The major difference for the NDP was the book value of their building on Bank Street at Laurier Avenue in Ottawa rated at $3.76M, but apparently with a much higher appraised market value, according to party spokespeople last year.

The returns for every major party but the Liberals have now been posted to the Elections Canada website. Based on Liberal Party national director Rocco Rossi's interview with Susan Delacourt of the Toronto Star published yesterday, the Liberals filed their return late Tuesday, thus missing the evening upload. [UPDATE: Some people have erroneously been interpreting this sentence to mean that the Liberal Party was late in filing their return. For clarity, perhaps I should have written this sentence to read "filed their return late IN THE DAY ON THE Tuesday DEADLINE, thus missing the evening upload". I hope this makes the situation clearer for all concerned, and apologize if my choice of words caused some folks to be led astray.]

None of the parties had received their election rebates by year-end, but receivables were expected to cover virtually all their current and long-term bank loans, with the exception of the Green Party, which has taken on $1.3M in long-term debt, and the NDP which would have had another $2 million to repay from other sources. The NDP and Conservatives, however, had some other fairly large outstanding payables on the books as well ($3.85M for the NDP and $5.97M for the Conservatives). Comparable figures for the Bloc and Greens were $419K and $425K. These would be deferred payments either to suppliers or to constituency associations.

Details of the parties' loans and lines-of-credit were also reported:

• The Conservatives' borrowed $15M from the CIBC at between 5.5% and 6.25% (reported as Prime+1.5% in their financial statements)
• The NDP borrowed $14M from the Citizens' Bank of Canada at 3.5%
• The Bloc renegotiated its current line of credit to a maximum of $1.1M at Prime+1%, and arranged for an additional election line of credit worth $3.5M at the same interest rate, guaranteed by their election rebate
• The Greens borrowed $1.15M from TD Canada Trust at 5.75%, and another 35 loans from individuals totalling $1.57M at rates from 4.75% to 7%.

Annual contribution totals and counts were also reported, showing little variation from the sum of the quarterly contributions, but of course with much more accurate counts of the numbers of contributors by category. Those figures are tabulated below, however every party but the Bloc showed a record volume of contributions going back to 2004 (when the rules and reporting methods changed), and even the Bloc had a much better year than the last two, although not as good as 2004 and 2005.

Contribution Amounts, Counts and Average Contribution Size, by Party and Donor Category, 2008 Financial Year (Lib data n/a)

2008	Lib	NDP	Grn	BQ	Cons
$ TOT num $ avg	--	5,412,940 29,732 $182.06	1,621,532 17,288 $93.80	713,085 7,445 $95.78	21,179,483 112,184 $188.79
$ < $20 num $ avg	--	878 101 $8.69	107 20 $5.35	--	--
$ <= $200 num $ avg	--	2,040,925 21,763 $93.78	840,492 15,479 $54.30	421,280 6,760 $62.32	8,494,070 86,149 $98.60
$ > $200 num $ avg	--	3,371,137 7,969 $423.03	780,933 1,809 $431.69	291,805 685 $425.99	12,685,412 26,035 $487.24

Interestingly, the Conservative totals for contributions of $200 and under don't vary much from year to year (they usually stay around $8M), but their contributions over $200 tend to increase during election years and fall off between-times. The other parties reporting to date tend to see increases both over and under $200 during election years.

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Labels: Conservatives, Greens, NDP, Party Finance