Trends Worth Watching in 2010
No, I didn't prorogue this blog, in case anyone was wondering. There are a few big data entry projects distracting your Guide from writing the on-going nomination news and other developments, along with the usual holiday season hiatus. Hope everyone had a nice break and is ready for the new year in political data.
Here are some of the trends and developments I'm watching for in the coming year, and some of the challenges each party will be facing in the areas we cover here at the Pundits' Guide:
Here are some of the trends and developments I'm watching for in the coming year, and some of the challenges each party will be facing in the areas we cover here at the Pundits' Guide:
- Whither the Liberals and their current leader. With the fiscal year ending tomorrow, and the 4th quarter financials set to be published before the end of January, we'll begin to get a picture of whether departing national director Rocco Rossi set the national party office up with a robust new fundraising infrastructure capable of taking on the Conservatives before he left, or merely front-end loaded their asks from large donors at the beginning of the year. Joan Bryden from the Canadian Press reported awhile ago that contributions had "tailed off dramatically this fall". By scheduling their "Thinkers' Conference" for mid-March, the party already signalled they will in all likelihood allow the Conservatives' budget to pass, leaving open the possibility that the budget's contents could pose constraints on the scope for proposals at the conference, although with the time horizon of "Canada at 150" they've at least given themselves some room to maneuvre. More immediately, December 31, 2009 is the deadline established by the Chief Electoral Officer for all but one (Ken Dryden) of the remaining Liberal leadership candidates from the December 2006 leadership race to pay off their outstanding campaign debts. And January will see Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff launch his "listening tour" with a visit to a number of college and university campuses across the country.
- How many candidates currently nominated are in it for the long haul. I freely confess the nomination listings here are over a month out of date while I've been working on some larger projects, but as time has passed several nominated candidates have dropped out of the running for various reasons, although the new timing may ultimately prove more beneficial for new candidates down the road. Just as last year was dominated by the fall municipal elections in Quebec and Saskatchewan and spring provincial elections in Nova Scotia and BC, this fall will be dominated by municipal elections in Ontario and Alberta, along with a hotly anticipated provincial election set for September 27 in New Brunswick, expected to be dominated by the sale of NB Power to Quebec Hydro. We've already seen Margaret Black step down as the Liberal candidate in Newmarket – Aurora in order to run again municipally, with hints that St. Catharines Liberal candidate Andrew Gill may do the same. Montréal businesswoman Nathalie LeProhon has now begged off a run in Jeanne-Le Ber to pursue other opportunities, although it was never clear to me that her nomination had been made official. And a number of Green Party candidates have also stepped aside for family reasons, while others have stepped forward. We've learned that this is normal when you have long unpredictable election windows, but it can also give candidates who got in on an upswing a chance to reassess where things stand several months later.
- What are the next steps for the Bloc Québécois. Leader Gilles Duceppe, first elected in 1990, has made fools of pundits who counted him out many times in the past. Still, he will be entering his third decade in the Commons without an obvious successor, save perhaps for newly elected M.P. Daniel Paillé who some now believe is Duceppe's preferred replacement over Joliette M.P. Pierre Paquette. And the Bloc also appears to be planning a series of events in the new year, called "Let's prepare the future". Duceppe writes in the BloCque Québécois that the events will be organized in concert with their "partners" (I'm assuming the PQ), and thus will focus on preparing a future that includes sovereignty. I'll also be watching to see if the Bloc continues to expand its central fundraising program, as it appeared to start doing this past year, and what the party does about candidate search in light of its aging caucus and criticisms that it has of late depended too heavily on inexperienced parliamentary legislative aides as candidates who it's claimed can be more easily controlled by the Leader's office.
- What are the NDP's next strategic objectives, and how successful will they be at pulling them off. To guess where the NDP is going next, let's look back on their strategic successes and failures of 2009. After the unravelling of last year's coalition accord with the Liberals and policy accord with the Bloc, the NDP unveiled a radio ad buy in January that attempted to capitalize on any disappointment. Finding none, they "went to ground" as one M.P. apparently advocated, launching a couple of task forces on the recession and the recovery that saw them travel to parts of the country they had not typically targetted in the past, while they waited out the Ignatieff honeymoon and redirected fundraising and organizational efforts towards the Nova Scotia and BC provincial campaigns. By the time the government's second mandated report card rolled around in June, NDP Leader Jack Layton had a well-developed ask on E.I. reform in return for supporting the government should the Liberals decide to vote them down. But it turned out to be unnecessary with the announcement instead of a Liberal-Conservative E.I. Working Group and specially-scheduled opposition day for the end of September. The NDP's August convention did not succeed in either changing the party's name or adopting Layton's marquee policy proposal to eliminate the small business tax. But by the time of the government's third mandated report card and Liberal opposition day in September, and following Michael Ignatieff's unilateral decision to force a confidence vote, the NDP Leader appeared to have more sympathetic audience for his E.I. proposals in the PMO, and he executed a successful pivot from the party's former positioning as the Real Opposition to its new role as the party Making Parliament Work, supported by a fairly large TV ad buy. The year was capped off by an anti-HST-inspired win in the New Westminster – Coquitlam by-election, and a first-ever second-place finish in Hochelaga, QC the same evening, followed by a targetted radio ad campaign also focused on the support of individual Conservative backbenchers for the HST. The party also started to catch up after a slow start on both candidate recruitment and fundraising, as it replaced key officials in the party headquarters and its national campaign chair. Both leader Jack Layton and national director Brad Lavigne have been quoted lately encouraging priority campaigns to be ready to spend the limit locally, saying that they win the riding 8 out of 9 times they spend the local limit (of course, I can't find the clippings again now that I want them, but I'll keep looking). Layton's year-end schedule has been taking him to one event after another in southwestern Ontario communities: St. Catharines, Brantford, Belle River, Essex, Sarnia, Petrolia, Lambton. Given the recurring push from some progressive quarters to consider electoral ententes with the (apparently unwilling) Liberals, in order to grow the party either has to challenge for Conservative votes in BC and southwestern Ontario, pick up support from the growing numbers of non-voters, or translate its growing Québec and Atlantic support into seats.
- When and where will the Green Party hold its mandated leadership convention, and who will be running in it. There is an on-going discussion within the Green Party about how to handle the fact that their constitution mandates a leadership convention every 4 years, meaning that 2010 is the year. This creates a potential timing problem in light of the uncertainty of the parliamentary and electoral calendar. Leader Elizabeth May had declined to run in the one of the fall by-election ridings, believing a general election was imminent and that her better seat in that case was Saanich – Gulf Islands. Now it appears she could be on the campaign trail three time zones away for another year or more, while her major competitor for the post, rumoured to be former national and Ontario provincial Green Leader Frank de Jong, gets organized for a leadership convention likely to be held in Toronto.
- Now that the Conservatives have achieved organizational and tactical supremacy, how do they strategically maintain and grow their support. The united Conservative Party has the best database, the best set of marketing and census data on the profiles of their likely supporters, the most candidates nominated and in place, and the most comprehensive parliamentary mailing programme. They can conduct the most thorough opposition research on any opponent, apparently finding the most vulnerable points to target, and then fire with all guns blazing in a saturation ad buy for which money is no object. They control government appointments, will soon control the Senate, and at some point will be picking the next Chief Electoral Officer. Yet they were unable to retake New Westminster – Coquitlam, with regional minister James Moore claiming his party had been "out-organized by the NDP" (again, I can't lay my hands on the clipping when I need it; sorry). Out-organized, or out-flanked on a potential wedge issue like the HST, is the question to ask. They have built an unparalleled machine in Canadian politics, and have learned how to push the machinery of government and parliamentary traditions to new limits. Now that they have, and now that it appears they have many more Canadians identifying with more conservative issues and positions, what strategic depth can they add? One place to watch for potential growth is the Toronto suburbs and a few seats in northern Toronto, where the Conservatives nominated early and have been working hard (Citizenship and Immigration Minister Jason Kenney in particular). It remains to be seen what new mandates will be given to ministers for the new session of Parliament, but with the spring likely focused on G-8 and G-20 meetings, and the fall absorbed with provincial and municipal elections, I'm betting they have a good year or more to work on them.
posted by The Pundits' Guide at
3:17 PM
10 Comments:
So clearly you're a New Democrat. Next ...
Dear Anonymous,
Thank you for your comment. I think the NDP gets less coverage in other news sources and has a harder strategic row to hoe, which is why it's worth spending a second or two considering their next moves.
For your information, this site was recommended as a non-partisan source of news and political data by none other than a Liberal blogger on the CBC a few weeks back.
I'm sorry you didn't find anything of worth in this blogpost.
But Happy New Year anyway.
sincerely,
PG
On second thought, you weren't the only one to think I went on and on about the Dippers (to quote my regular reader in this household).
I suppose I was less certain what to write and so traced out my thinking process. It should have been edited down, in retrospect.
So, fair point, Anon. I'll try and do better in future.
Great post! I didn't think you gave overdue attention to the NDP - as someone who most definitely does not support them, it's good to know what they're up to :)
Thanks, Walker. I still could have boiled it down a bit more though, I think. You know the old quote of Pascal: if I had more time I would have written something shorter.
Anyways, happy new year to you, and thanks for taking the time to drop by and say hi.
In numerous posting you along with most media have suggested that the anti-HST sentiment was the reason that the NDP took the riding of Coquitlam-New Westminster.
I agree that the HST was and is a timely and news friendly issue and certainly was a big factor. However with redrawn boundary lines this riding is more prone than before to vote NDP. The riding already was very very strong in NDP support.
PS You are doing an invaluable service with this website and I thank you for your efforts.
Hi Johnny,
I presume you mean the boundary change that took effect for the 2004 General Election (the so-called 2003 "Representation Order"). The next boundary changes will not take effect until after the next representation order, sometime after the 2011 Census.
The boundary changes also coincided with the merger of the Conservative parties, the arrival of Jack Layton as NDP Leader, and nine years in office for the Liberals. It would be hard to pick apart the contribution each one played in this seat, but I would probably also credit Dawn Black's candidacy with swinging things back the NDP's way since then.
As for the by-election though, the big difference seems to have been in Coquitlam, which the Conservatives won last time, but where the new NDP candidate hailed from. The HST could have been a good issue inasmuch as it gave those voters a motivating reason to actually vote in a by-election (and maybe made the Conservative voters want to stay home).
Thank you for taking the time to read and comment. I'm glad you find the site useful.
A comment on the Green leadership race process.
I am a close follower, and its too murky for overall 'what might happen' comments.
Just a couple items to throw into the mix. You mention Frank DeJong being free to get ready for a leadership race that would if the schedule is follwed be Toronto in August with their Convention [officially: Biannual General Meeting].
But Frank DeJong is the one that formally requested the delay of the race until after the general election, if some convoluted means of skirting the consitution and bylawas can be found.
Despite May's camp having complete control of all dimensions of the GPC organization, seizing on DeJongs request looked a better way of getting what they want.
The issue is not potential conflict between the unknown time of the general election, and needing to fix a time for the leadership race. In itself, dealing with that is straightforward enough.
The problem is that even if possibilities of those two overlapping is eliminated, May does not want to have to run... or even have to declare whether she is running for another term, until after a general election that may be far off.
Thats hard to square with a Constitution where both the letter and the guiding principle are built around in a fixed term for the Leader.
Which is not to say that pixie dust and fig leafs can't just change all that. It comes up again at their Council next week. Hard to imagine they can put off any longer a final decision. Though I'm sure the current election talk puts a few more twists into the ruminations.
Thanks for providing that background, Ken. I was not following the details of the story closely enough, I see.
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