UPDATED: Media and Pundit Watch
I don't know why it is, but any time a news story appears about an election that hasn't occurred yet, the reporter wants to report who will win it, or who is "expected to" win, or "favoured to" win ... and they write it as news.
This has always struck me as really presumptuous when citizens haven't actually had a chance to vote yet (almost antidemocratic, even). I mean if they want to endorse a candidate, fine: write an editorial. If they want to make a prediction, do that in a column. But it drives me crazy when a story says that party XXX is expected to win. Particularly when it's clear the reporter hasn't done much of any research visiting or phoning into the actual riding ... such as this Québec reporter who claims to know the outcome of the Nova Scotia race:
However, I realize I'm not going to win this war. The news organizations are going to keep writing these stories that way, because they want to get ahead of the news, or not miss out on something that "everyone else has".
So instead, I'm just going to document those calls today, and we'll rate the pundits afterwards. If I've missed any pundit predictions or news stories that claim to be reporting as fact the outcome of any of Monday's by-elections, please add them in the comments. Also included are news stories that wrote it straight up without writing predictions as facts.
UPDATE: I've added Chantal Hébert from l'Actualité and Susan Delacourt from the Toronto Star this morning.
FURTHER UPDATE: Craig Oliver made his own prediction for CCMV during the journalists' panel at the end of the show. Thanks to a reader for helping to clear up the confusion.
The Globe and Mail used Joan Bryden's story from CP on Sunday,while the Toronto Star has not written about the by-elections at all this weekend that I've noticed, (they have now).
This has always struck me as really presumptuous when citizens haven't actually had a chance to vote yet (almost antidemocratic, even). I mean if they want to endorse a candidate, fine: write an editorial. If they want to make a prediction, do that in a column. But it drives me crazy when a story says that party XXX is expected to win. Particularly when it's clear the reporter hasn't done much of any research visiting or phoning into the actual riding ... such as this Québec reporter who claims to know the outcome of the Nova Scotia race:
"[E]n Nouvelle-Écosse, dans Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley, les conservateurs semblent bien placés pour reprendre la circonscription détenue par l'indépendant Bill Casey (69 % du vote en 2008)..." -- Guillaume Bourgault-Côté in Le Devoir... or where they're basing their call on nothing more than previous election results (a longstanding bug-a-boo of mine). This last practice can be particularly unreliable in a by-election, which by definition has no incumbents, and thus can't be compared to the previous result which usually did.
However, I realize I'm not going to win this war. The news organizations are going to keep writing these stories that way, because they want to get ahead of the news, or not miss out on something that "everyone else has".
So instead, I'm just going to document those calls today, and we'll rate the pundits afterwards. If I've missed any pundit predictions or news stories that claim to be reporting as fact the outcome of any of Monday's by-elections, please add them in the comments. Also included are news stories that wrote it straight up without writing predictions as facts.
UPDATE: I've added Chantal Hébert from l'Actualité and Susan Delacourt from the Toronto Star this morning.
FURTHER UPDATE: Craig Oliver made his own prediction for CCMV during the journalists' panel at the end of the show. Thanks to a reader for helping to clear up the confusion.
| Journo/Pundit | News Org | Date | NWC | 'Chlag | MIKR | CCMV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Ian MacDonald | National Post | Nov 6 | NDP | BQ | (1.) | Cons |
| Janyce McGregor | CBC.ca Inside Politics | Nov 6 | (2.) | |||
| Nick Gamache | CBC.ca Inside Politics | Nov 6 | (3.) | |||
| Stephen Puddicombe | CBC.ca Inside Politics | Nov 6 | (4.) | |||
| Doug Ward | Vancouver Sun | Nov 6 | (5.) | |||
| Joël-Denis Bellavance | La Presse | Nov 7 | NDP | BQ | BQ | Cons |
| Guillaume Bourgault-Côté | Le Devoir | Nov 7 | -- | BQ | (6.) | Cons |
| No byline | Radio-Canada.ca | Nov 7 | (7.) | |||
| No byline | Radio-Canada.ca | Nov 8 | (8.) | |||
| Canadian Election Watch | blog | Nov 8 | NDP | BQ | BQ | Cons |
| No byline | Canwest News Service | Nov 8 | (9.) | BQ | Cons | Cons |
| No byline | CBC.ca | Nov 8 | NDP | BQ | BQ | Cons |
| Joan Bryden (10.) | CP | Nov 8 | NDP | BQ | BQ | Cons |
| Nelson Wiseman | CTV.ca | Nov 8 | (11.) | |||
| Ian Munroe | CTV.ca | Nov 8 | (12.) | BQ | BQ | Cons |
| Craig Oliver | Question Period | Nov 8 | NDP | BQ | -- | NDP |
| Jean Lapierre (QC only) | Question Period | Nov 8 | BQ | BQ | ||
| Christy Clark (BC only) | Question Period | Nov 8 | NDP | |||
| Dan Leger (NS only) | Question Period | Nov 8 | (13.) | |||
| Althia Raj | Sun Media | Nov 8 | (14.) | |||
| Philip Authier | Montreal Gazette | Nov 8 | (15.) | (16.) | ||
| ElectionPrediction.org | blog | Nov 8 | NDP | BQ | BQ | Cons |
| Chantal Hébert | l'Actualité | Nov 9 | (17.) | BQ | BQ | (18.) |
| Susan Delacourt | Toronto Star | Nov 9 | (19.) | |||
- "This is an extremely tight race, too close to call, between the Bloc’s Nancy Gagnon and the Conservatives’ Bernard Généreux. Radio-Canada is calling it 'the Battle of the Lower St. Lawrence'."
- "I was particularly interested in his belief that the Rivière du Loup riding is too close to call -- I'm not sure that's expected, given that the Bloc won by a double-digit margin in this riding just one year ago....It *should* be safe Conservative turf, but a cruise through the data from the last provincial election suggests the NDP will have a much better showing than they did in Casey's day....Hochelaga should be safe east-end Montreal turf for the Blocquistes, and wouldn't be all that interesting if the BQ candidate hadn't had a bit of a kerfuffle over his nomination, and didn't use to be an advisor to Stephen Harper's Conservative government. But both are true....But the race expected to be the closest -- based on the margin of victory in the last election -- is New Westminster-Coquitlam."
- "If the race is between the Bloc and the Conservatives, where are the Liberals? According to many here, they're in trouble. Their local organization is largely non-existent and their candidate reportedly entered the race reluctantly. I ended up spending more time than expected in Rivière-du-Loup, a good chunk of it at a garage. A fellow client asked if I was voting for Généreux or that woman from the Bloc. I said I wasn't going to vote on Monday. He said: "Me neither, I'm tired of all those elections'."
- "During this by-election campaign you can't have a conversation without someone mentioning Bill Casey. A local debate this week in Truro was dominated by Casey and his ideals and legacy. I was talking with a couple of dairy farmers about the contest. They both said the choice is simple. Whichever candidate is most like Bill Casey is the person they'll vote for. They didn't care if electing a Conservative gets them closer to those infrastructure cheques with the party logo on them. They didn't care about their candidate making it into cabinet. They just want someone to stick up for them. Someone who will put the region's interests ahead of a political career."
- "New Westminster-Coquitlam is a swing constituency that has produced razor-thin finishes between the NDP and the Conservatives over the past three elections with the NDP winning the last two."
- "Le Bloc québécois perdra-t-il un de ses bastions lors de l'élection partielle de lundi dans Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Rivière-du-Loup (MLKRDL)? Les conservateurs le souhaitent et l'affirment, mais la lutte s'annonce très serrée."
- "À quatre jours des élections partielles fédérales dans Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Rivière-du-Loup, le Bloc québécois et les conservateurs jouent leur va-tout. Bien que la circonscription soit aux mains des bloquistes depuis 16 ans, les conservateurs et leur candidat, l'ex-maire de La Pocatière Bernard Généreux, croient pouvoir créer la surprise."
- "Le Bloc québécois et le Nouveau Parti démocratique (NPD) se livrent une dure lutte en prévision de l'élection partielle fédérale de lundi dans Hochelaga."
- "The B.C. riding of New Westminster-Coquitlam has shaped up to be a battleground between the Conservatives' Diana Dilworth and the NDP's Fin Donnelly."
- "The contests will most likely amount to a confirmation of the status quo, with the Bloc Quebecois hanging on to two ridings in Quebec, New Democrats holding on to another in British Columbia and the Tories reclaiming a Nova Scotia riding that had been a longtime stronghold until Bill Casey, a former Conservative MP, captured it as an independent in 2008. But all four races are sufficiently tight that they could conceivably produce upset victories for the Conservatives and the NDP."
- "None of the ridings are particularly representative of the country's political landscape, University of Toronto professor Nelson Wiseman told CTV.ca, and voting rates are usually lower outside of general elections. But the results could still shed light on how Canadians feel about how their political parties are performing."
- "The Conservatives won the riding in 2004 but the NDP has held it since then, and the race is expected to be close."
- He said it would be "down to organization and coattails".
- "Canadians in four federal ridings head to the polls Monday to cast their ballots in hotly contested byelections."
- "The Conservatives believe the riding is ripe for change. In the 2008 federal election, the Bloc’s share of the vote slipped from 52 per cent to 46 per cent while the Conservatives crept up to 30 per cent. Add to the mix Généreux, a popular local mayor, and they think they have a chance."
- "The campaign in Hochelaga has turned into a Bloc-NDP fight to the finish with the NDP turning on the pressure in the belief Hochelaga is ready to flip over to them in much the same way Outremont did."
- "Le NPD a repris ce siège aux conservateurs l’an dernier et ces derniers voudraient bien le récupérer. Les néo-démocrates ont fait campagne contre l’instauration prochaine d’une taxe de vente harmonisée en Colombie-Britannique. S’ils perdent le comté, ils devront se demander si l’idée de faire payer le prix politique d’une mesure provinciale par le gouvernement d’Ottawa est un pétard mouillé."
- "Comté bleu où le député conservateur Bill Casey avait été réélu comme indépendant l’automne dernier, après avoir quitté le parti de Stephen Harper pour protester contre la formule de péréquation imposée par le gouvernement. Le NPD, qui vient de s’installer au pouvoir en Nouvelle-Écosse, compte sur l’élan de cette victoire historique pour chauffer les conservateurs aujourd’hui."
- "The New Democrats and Bloc Québécois have high hopes, while the Conservatives and Liberals are playing down any expectations of seat gains in four by-elections on Monday in Nova Scotia, Quebec and British Columbia....[I]t's possible the Liberals will not place first or even second in any of the by-elections, in what will be sure to be portrayed by opponents as another sign of the shaky state of Ignatieff's leadership."
The Globe and Mail used Joan Bryden's story from CP on Sunday,
Labels: Media Coverage, Nov 9 2009 By-elections
posted by The Pundits' Guide at
10:41 PM
11 Comments:
Does seem to be a pattern here. That overwhelmingly the "vote" is for all the seats to go as they have historically.
Brilliant lot.
A couple or few exceptions for calling a riding where the reporter is closer to the action. A lesson there for our pundits? Its not like they can't quickly survey that regionally produced info.
I may be prejudiced by where I'm close to the ground, but I think it should be obvious that CCMV should be seen as a race too unpredictable and close to call.
Just a bit of a correction for ya, Craig Oliver actually predicted two NDP wins, in BC and in NS. He referred to it as "a fearless prediction"
Great stuff, Alice. Will look forward to comparing the results tomorrow.
One of my pet peeves is journalists/opinion writers pretending to write knowledgeably about a region of the country they are completely unfamiliar with. For instance, Chantal Hebert writing about Alberta politics (Danielle Smith as the next Mario Dumont), and just about any anglo Ottawa journalist writing about Quebec. But no-one ever calls them on their screw-ups.
Cam, I noticed you had written that, so I listened to the clip twice, to be sure. I honestly heard him call it for the Conservatives.
Of course I'm on my berry now, and won't be able to triple-check for awhile, but click on the link and take another listen for yourself, and let me know which quote of his you're invoking. I thought I heard him say it at the end.
Thanks, Cam.
Thanks to a reader for sending us the Question Period transcript.
----------
|OLIVER: Okay. Let's move to Nova Scotia. Dan, Bill Casey could never
have lost there if he'd stayed another 100 years and we'd all live that
long. Is there any chance that that riding might switch somewhere,
because he had a big fight with the federal government, a big fight with
the Prime Minister? A lot of people were unhappy about how badly treated
he was. He finally did his best as an independent. And it was a
Conservative riding forever almost. What are the chances that it could
change?
|DAN LEGER (The Chronicle Herald): Well it's going to change from what
it was after the last general because Casey got elected as an
independent, so something is going to change. But his, you know it's a
really interesting situation with the Tory vote up there because his
former very close campaign aide, Scott Armstrong, is the candidate.
Armstrong is the acting president of the PC Association in Nova Scotia.
He campaigned with Casey against the Tories last time. And by the way,
most of the viewers probably wouldn't know this, but in the last
election the Conservatives couldn't even find a candidate from Nova
Scotia to run in that riding. They brought in a guy from New Brunswick
who just got humiliated, and the NDP finished second up there. So it
looks like an NDP-Tory battle, and they're both invoking Casey. It's a
funny thing. The NDP candidate mentions Bill Casey more often than the
Tories do. But there was a lot of backlash against the Conservatives, a
lot of backlash against Prime Minister Harper up there, and the question
for the Conservatives is has that calmed down enough now to allow people
to go back to their traditional voting patterns?
|OLIVER: But you've now got an NDP provincial government. I wonder if
that might play a role in terms of the kind of mood people are feeling
in, and the kind of workers they're able to draw on with provincial
government help?
|LEGER: Yeah, that's an excellent point, and there's many ridings. We
just had a provincial election back in June. The NDP swept to power for
the first time. They still have, they're still in a bit of a honeymoon
period. Many of those seats up in Colchester-Cumberland-Musquodobo
Valley are NDP seats right now, and so they do have a base to work with,
they do have trained organizers, they're putting a lot of effort in up
there. They will be very competitive. They've got a good candidate named
Mark Austin who's quite well known up in the riding, so they're going to
be competitive. A lot of this is about coattails, this whole by-election
here. Does Darryl Dexter...
|OLIVER: Bill Casey hasn't said how he wants them to vote. King William
hasn't said how he would like people in the riding to vote, has he?
|LEGER: No, he hasn't. And I was, but Scott Armstrong and Casey are good
friends and people up there know that. And Bill isn't endorsing anyone.
He's working for the provincial government now as our ambassador in
Ottawa, if you will, and so he has to keep out of politics. I called him
the other day, tried to engage him, and he wouldn't even try to call it.
So that's how unpredictable that one is going to be, and a lot of it is
going to be organization on the ground tomorrow.
|OLIVER: Thank you all three. We're out of time. I'm going to summarize
what you said. Looks like an NDP win maybe in British Columbia, perhaps
a Conservative win again in Nova Scotia, no change in Quebec. That's the
way I'm going to summarize this, and we'll see if that turns out to be
right at the end of the day tomorrow.
----------
So, now I'm wondering if you heard Craig Oliver change his prediction later in the day on CTV Newsnet or the CTV National News, Cam.
Can anyone else out there clear up this confusion?
was going to add one website you missed and there predictions for the by-elections .
a new website election target has predicted cumberland colchester and new westminster coquitlam for the conservatives and the 2 in quebec for the bloc . so according to your list there the only ones to predict new west for the conservatives .
http://www.electiontarget.com/Canada/canada41.php
What is the world is Nelson Wiseman smoking? Not representative of the country as a whole? You have one contest in the Maritimes, two in Quebec (in Montreal and outside Montreal), and one in the West in BC. That to me seems like a pretty good spread regionally of the country as a whole.
Without a doubt the BEST site for information regarding Canadian Politics.
Thank you for your work and presentation of without SPIN.
It would be great to set up a site that highlighting the "mistakes" of facts by the MSM regarding easily researched FACTS.
OK, I've sorted out the discrepancy. Oliver said it during the reporters' panel, which CTV never posts online (surely the reporters aren't afraid to be ket accountable for what they say there, are they?)M
The answer was much further down the transcript, as follows.
-----------
|FIFE: In Nova Scotia, the Liberals, the NDP and Conservatives have
thrown in a lot of resources. The Conservatives were very good at
getting their advance poll out. I think probably the Conservatives will
edge by in a victory on that, but it's too hard to tell. When it comes
to Quebec, Jean Lapierre on your program had said the Bloc will probably
win those two ridings. We'll accept that, but the Conservatives will
probably come in second in that riding, the NDP in Hochelaga, and it'll
be a fairly tight race. The Liberals, the story here, Liberals fourth
place in the Montreal ridings and probably third place in the two
ridings outside of Quebec, not good news for Michael Ignatieff, very
good news for the NDP because they're playing competitively.
|TABER: What do you think about this, Jim, will it hurt Michael Ignatieff?
|JIM TRAVERS (Toronto Star): Well I think the problem is the perception,
and people say, well, where are the Liberals? Well, in fact, it's kind
of the luck. It's a roll of the dice. They're not players in any of
these ridings, so it's not as if he is going to lose seats or not win
seats that he could have, the Liberals had a shot in. So I don't think
it's going to hurt them in that way but, you know, it's not helpful to
be a non-player in any news event, and that is a problem. But I think
this is really in a way kind of more of the skirmish than the war. I
mean these are fights between the NDP and Conservatives, the Bloc and
Conservatives, and it will be interesting to see how those play out, but
it will probably end in more or less the status quo. As Bob says, the
interesting one is Bill Casey's old riding where it's an essentially
Conservative riding, a deeply Conservative riding that has turned
against these particular Conservatives.
|TABER: And apparently the NDP did well in the five provincial ridings
inside of Mr. Casey's riding.
|TRAVERS: Yeah. And the NDP is definitely a provincial player.
|CRAIG OLIVER: And, remember, when you talk about Conservatives in Nova
Scotia, you're talking about Progressive Conservatives. So my fearless
prediction will be that the headline the day after tomorrow is going to
be all about the NDP. I think they will win in British Columbia, and my
guess is on the strength of the momentum the provincial NDP have, the
help they can give their candidate there, who's by all accounts very
strong, there will be two NDP MPs win tomorrow, and everybody will then
be saying do the Liberal party have to start really worrying about the
NDP in the next election as well as worrying about the Conservatives.
|FIFE: And the other factor here is that Jack Layton will have proven
that he did not hurt himself by supporting the Conservative government.
In fact, he can...
|TRAVERS: Or more exactly not having an election.
|FIFE: And not having an election, yeah. And he's, but more than that,
he's had a number of concessions which a lot of people don't realize in
terms of employment insurance, in terms of pension reform as a result of
doing this.
-----------
So, you're perfectly right, Cam. I'll update the post now.
"|TABER: And apparently the NDP did well in the five provincial ridings
inside of Mr. Casey's riding"
Actually the Conservatives won in Cumberland South (67%) and in Colchester North (50%).
But the NSNDP did very well in the two it did not win. And in terms of resources they have to draw on now, it matters that they ran a good campaign even in Cumberland South where there was no cance of winning.
So Tabers general comment is accurate.
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