By-Elections Scorecard Baseline
With the polls set to close soon, let's take a look at the baseline that each party is starting from, as a way of reminding readers what the Party By-Election Scorecard is going to tell us.
First, a couple of views of the overall electoral history across those 4 ridings, starting with the Bar + Stacked Area Chart:
... and continuing with the Line + Bar Chart:
Then the baseline party scorecard:
It's interesting to note that the Bloc was so strong in its two seats that it won the popular vote across all four, polling some 24.1%. The Conservatives followed with 22.6%, with the NDP third at 19.3%, and the "Rest" (mostly Bill Casey in CCMV) coming in fourth. The Liberals were already running fifth overall in popular vote (at 14.1%) in these four seats. However, they did earn the minimum of 10% needed to receive a candidate rebate in 3 of the 4 seats, as did the NDP, while the Conservatives and Bloc only achieved that threshold in 2 of them. The Bloc obviously held both Quebec seats, while the Conservatives achieved two second-place finishes. The NDP had one seat and one second-place finish, with Independent M.P. Bill Casey making up the other seat. The Liberals had their one second-place standing in the fourth seat.
Turning to the charts, one trend that pops out is the decline in Liberal vote over the four previous elections. In the Transposition of the 2000 election results onto the current boundaries, the Liberals did not win a seat, but they did place second in all four seats, earning some 30% of the vote. Over the next three elections, they lost one second-place finish per election, and overall saw their vote share drop by half.
The Liberal vote was being pushed down by a combination of the rising NDP vote, a slight increase in the Green vote, a one-time increase in the Bloc vote in 2004, followed by an increase in the Conservative vote in 2006, and a huge increase in the Independent/Other vote in 2008. The NDP went from no second place finishes in 2000, to one in 2004, a seat in 2006 and one seat plus one second-place finish in 2008.
The Bloc has held its two seats since 2000 (we only show 2000 and forward here, as that's all that is available for the current boundaries, but obviously they had held them since 1993). The Liberals held the CCMV predecessor seat for one term from 1993-1997, and the NDP held the NWC predecessor from 1988 to 1993. Apart from that, the Conservatives, Canadian Alliance and/or PCs had won the other two until 2006, when the NDP's Dawn Black won in the BC seat, followed by 2008 which saw former PC and Conservative M.P. Bill Casey win re-election as an Independent.
As soon as the polls close in BC, I'll post whatever I have by way of results in chart and table format at the top of the home page of the Pundits' Guide website.
First, a couple of views of the overall electoral history across those 4 ridings, starting with the Bar + Stacked Area Chart:
... and continuing with the Line + Bar Chart:
Then the baseline party scorecard:
Party Scorecard - 2009 By Baseline
| 2009 By | Lib | NDP | Grn | BQ | Cons | Rest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prev VotePct | 14.1% | 19.3% | 3.6% | 24.1% | 22.6% | 16.3% |
| Prev Seats | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Prev 2nds | 1 | 1 | 2 | |||
| Prev RebateEligib. | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Prev RawVote | 25,236 | 34,689 | 6,498 | 43,214 | 40,633 | 29,191 |
It's interesting to note that the Bloc was so strong in its two seats that it won the popular vote across all four, polling some 24.1%. The Conservatives followed with 22.6%, with the NDP third at 19.3%, and the "Rest" (mostly Bill Casey in CCMV) coming in fourth. The Liberals were already running fifth overall in popular vote (at 14.1%) in these four seats. However, they did earn the minimum of 10% needed to receive a candidate rebate in 3 of the 4 seats, as did the NDP, while the Conservatives and Bloc only achieved that threshold in 2 of them. The Bloc obviously held both Quebec seats, while the Conservatives achieved two second-place finishes. The NDP had one seat and one second-place finish, with Independent M.P. Bill Casey making up the other seat. The Liberals had their one second-place standing in the fourth seat.
Turning to the charts, one trend that pops out is the decline in Liberal vote over the four previous elections. In the Transposition of the 2000 election results onto the current boundaries, the Liberals did not win a seat, but they did place second in all four seats, earning some 30% of the vote. Over the next three elections, they lost one second-place finish per election, and overall saw their vote share drop by half.
The Liberal vote was being pushed down by a combination of the rising NDP vote, a slight increase in the Green vote, a one-time increase in the Bloc vote in 2004, followed by an increase in the Conservative vote in 2006, and a huge increase in the Independent/Other vote in 2008. The NDP went from no second place finishes in 2000, to one in 2004, a seat in 2006 and one seat plus one second-place finish in 2008.
The Bloc has held its two seats since 2000 (we only show 2000 and forward here, as that's all that is available for the current boundaries, but obviously they had held them since 1993). The Liberals held the CCMV predecessor seat for one term from 1993-1997, and the NDP held the NWC predecessor from 1988 to 1993. Apart from that, the Conservatives, Canadian Alliance and/or PCs had won the other two until 2006, when the NDP's Dawn Black won in the BC seat, followed by 2008 which saw former PC and Conservative M.P. Bill Casey win re-election as an Independent.
As soon as the polls close in BC, I'll post whatever I have by way of results in chart and table format at the top of the home page of the Pundits' Guide website.
Labels: Nov 9 2009 By-elections, Party Scorecard
posted by The Pundits' Guide at
4:04 PM
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