By-Election Scorecard and Metrics
The Conservatives defied nearly all the pundits Monday night, picking up a seat on the south shore of eastern Québec, and regaining their former seat in Nova Scotia more handily than some had expected. The Liberals were shut out of both first- and second-place finishes, but appear at least to have exceeded the 10% vote share threshold required to obtain candidate expense rebates in all four ridings (up from 3 in 2008).
Conservatives also topped the popular vote across the four ridings (with 35.7%), pushing the Bloc (who held that position last time) down to third place (at 20.8% for a drop of 3.3 percentage points) behind the NDP, who jumped a spot to second place with 24.4%. The Liberals kept 4th place in the popular vote, even though they placed 3rd in each riding. The Green Party pulled up the rear with 3.1% overall, down 0.6 percentage points, with no candidate earning a rebate. Their best performance was in New Westminster – Coquitlam, BC (4.3% of the vote), although they did edge out the Christian Heritage Party leader in Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, NS.
It was a disappointing night for the Bloc Québécois, losing their seat in Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, QC to the Conservatives, and with a drop in popular vote of 3.3 percentage points. New Democrats did not achieve the wildest dreams of their most optimistic supporters, but passed the Liberals in Hochelaga, QC, attained a record vote share in Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, NS, and obtained nearly half the vote in New Westminster – Coquitlam, BC. In fact, the BC race proved not to be close at all.
I should add that many observers were bemoaning the low turnout tonight, but in many cases it wound up higher than ridings in the March, 2008 by-elections.
For those readers who only usually access the Pundits' Guide via an RSS reader, you'll want to visit the site's main page today, to see the Party Election Scorecard, the By-Election Metrics Summary Table, various charts, and all the detailed data for each riding. All the relevant riding and local region charts have been updated as well.
Conservatives also topped the popular vote across the four ridings (with 35.7%), pushing the Bloc (who held that position last time) down to third place (at 20.8% for a drop of 3.3 percentage points) behind the NDP, who jumped a spot to second place with 24.4%. The Liberals kept 4th place in the popular vote, even though they placed 3rd in each riding. The Green Party pulled up the rear with 3.1% overall, down 0.6 percentage points, with no candidate earning a rebate. Their best performance was in New Westminster – Coquitlam, BC (4.3% of the vote), although they did edge out the Christian Heritage Party leader in Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, NS.
It was a disappointing night for the Bloc Québécois, losing their seat in Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, QC to the Conservatives, and with a drop in popular vote of 3.3 percentage points. New Democrats did not achieve the wildest dreams of their most optimistic supporters, but passed the Liberals in Hochelaga, QC, attained a record vote share in Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, NS, and obtained nearly half the vote in New Westminster – Coquitlam, BC. In fact, the BC race proved not to be close at all.
I should add that many observers were bemoaning the low turnout tonight, but in many cases it wound up higher than ridings in the March, 2008 by-elections.
For those readers who only usually access the Pundits' Guide via an RSS reader, you'll want to visit the site's main page today, to see the Party Election Scorecard, the By-Election Metrics Summary Table, various charts, and all the detailed data for each riding. All the relevant riding and local region charts have been updated as well.
Labels: Nov 9 2009 By-elections, Party Scorecard
posted by The Pundits' Guide at
10:59 PM
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