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BLOG -- Guide to the Pundits' Guide

Monday, November 30, 2009

2008 Candidate Financial Returns: Latest Data

I've just finished making a pass-through, updating the database with the latest version of each candidate's 2008 financial return information from Elections Canada. Both the Bloc Québécois and Conservatives are substantially through the review process, while the Liberals, Greens and NDP returns are taking longer for Elections Canada to get through.

This increases substantially from last time the number of 2008 candidate returns in the Pundits' Guide database, meaning that the summary financial data on the Browse Parties page for this election is starting to be a lot more reliable. For example, we can now see that:
  • With 9 returns yet to be filed or entered into the Elections Canada database, the Liberals seem to have spent around 50% of their 2008 candidate spending limits overall, which is down roughly 10 percentage points from 2006, and down 25 percentage points from 2004. Fewer than 1 in 3 of their candidates spent over 75% of the limit in 2008, unlike 2006 when over half their candidates ran fully-funded campaigns. And while just over 50% of their candidates spent over 50% the limit in 2008, that metric is down from 87% in 2004.
  • With 7 returns yet to be filed or entered into the Elections Canada database, the NDP was on track to spend around 25% of its 2008 candidate spending limits overall, roughly the same as in both 2004 and 2006. 36/308 candidates spent over 75% of the spending limit in their riding, while 66 spent over 50% (up slightly from 54 in 2004 and 61 in 2006).
  • With 12 returns yet to be filed or entered into the Elections Canada database, the Green Party looks to have more than doubled its candidate spending in 2008, moving from 3% or so in both 2004 and 2006 to some 7% in 2008. 4/303 candidates spent greater than 75% of the limit, while 7/303 spent 50% or more.
  • All the Bloc Québécois returns are filed, and all but 15/75 have already been reviewed. Their spending patterns were not significantly different in 2008 from 2006.
  • With just 1 return yet to be filed or entered into the Elections Canada database, the Conservatives again dominated candidate election spending, and in fact increased their own percent spent from 69% in 2006 to 72% or more in 2008. Fully 170/308 of their candidates spent 75% of the riding spending limit or more (the same number as in 2006), with 248/307 spending 50% of the limit or more.
As more returns move from "as submitted" to "as reviewed" status and I get a chance to enter the amended figures, we'll have an even clearer picture of what the candidates spent and where.

Remember that this is candidate spending, according to the candidate financial returns, and is in addition to the central spending done by party headquarters and already reported by them six months after Election Day. In the Browse Parties financial table, the national spending is on the left, and doesn't change as you drill down further by region, while the candidate spending is found on the right, and does show regional subsets as you drill down.

# of Candidate Returns by Status, by Party, 2008 General Election

PartyParty NameNot
In
As
Sub
As
Rev
Ran in
2008 GE
LibLiberal Party of Canada9
183
114
307
NDPNew Democratic Party7
213
88
308
GrnGreen Party of Canada12
199
92
303
BQBloc Québécois
15
60
75
ConsConservative Party of Canada1
118
188
307
PCProgressive Canadian Party1
4
5
10
IndIndep/No Affil13
34
24
71
1stFirst Peoples National Party2
4

6
AnmlAnimal Alliance Environment Voters Party
1
3
4
CAPCanadian Action Party4
8
8
20
CHPChristian Heritage Party2
32
25
59
CPCCommunist Party of Canada
24

24
LbtnLibertarian Party of Canada2
14
10
26
MarjMarijuana Party
1
7
8
M-L
Marxist-Leninist Party of Canada
15
44
59
N1stNewfoundland and Labrador First Party1
2

3
PPPPeople's Political Power Party
2

2
RhinneoRhino.ca
4
3
7
WBlkWestern Block Party1


1
WrkLWork Less Party
1

1

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2 Comments:

Blogger Ken Summers said...

I am quite surprised at how much aggregate Liberal candidate spending has gone down over the last 3 elections.

I was wodering how much that might have to do with spending limits.

Were the new spending limits in effect for the 2004 election?

If they were NOT, that could account for a lot of the drop from 2004 to 2006. Then, the limit drop from $5500 to $1100 possibly accounting for a lot of the drop in spending 2006 to 2008.

Is it possible to do a quick check from 2000 to see what proportion of Liberal candidate contributions were over $5,000?

Whatever the root causes of the drop- I remember having the sense that the ridings were doing fine while the Liberal party was wilting financially. Obviously that was just from the profile of the ridings that not surprisingly are most visible.

When combined with how much the Conservatives have to put into the ground campaigns, and which is increasing.... thats a pretty wicked crunch the Liberals face.

Its also one which their modest improvements in central fundraising will have zero impact on.

December 3, 2009 6:39 AM  
Blogger Ken Summers said...

.

December 3, 2009 6:40 AM  

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