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BLOG -- Guide to the Pundits' Guide

Wednesday, November 11, 2009

2000 Transposition Properly Entered Now

If you've had a close look at any of the riding profile pages (for example Hochelaga, QC) for the 2003 representation ridings before, you'd have noticed that the listings under "2000 Tr" often seemed incomplete, especially in ridings having large numbers of parties running in the 2000 GE.

Without getting too long and complicated here, Elections Canada assembles several documents after a redistribution is finalized, to redistribute the population between old and new ridings, as well as to redistribute the votes to see how the parties would have fared on the new boundaries. One of the documents they generate in that process is a listing of which parties won each new seat, based on the previous vote, and listing them in order of votes obtained (called the "Ranking"). But they only do the first 4 parties per riding in that document, lumping everyone else together under "Others", and this is the only document available on their website for free. So when I first assembled the data for this website, that's what I used for the 2000 Transposition Order riding level results.

However, particularly in either Québec ridings, or ROC ridings where the Canadian Alliance and Progressive Conservatives were both running, this masked the actual vote of the NDP, and occasionally some of the other parties as well (e.g. the Canadian Alliance vote in some Québec ridings). The full Transposition of Votes, on the other hand, shows true totals in each riding for the Liberals, Bloc Québécois, Canadian Alliance, NDP and Progressive Conservative Party, regardless of their ranking or performance, grouping the rest of the candidates into "Others". Sorry, the totals were not computed for the Greens by Elections Canada, so I'd have to manually break that out for them, which I haven't done just yet.

But I have now entered the complete values for the other 5 parties plus "others" into the 2000 Transposition, and also added the Population and the number of Electors for each riding. Now we can see that the NDP obtained 1.9% of the vote in the 2000 Transposition in Hochelaga (one-tenth of what they got on Monday night).

Something about this has caused a slight problem with the calculation of the top of the stacked area chart part of the Bar + Stacked Area Chart graph, but I'll get to fixing that in a bit. I have deleted all the old charts, and so they'll be regenerated one at a time for each riding the next time one of you requests that riding in a given language in a given chart format. It shouldn't take too long to regenerate the whole batch of them, and hopefully will be imperceptible to the user.

Other calculations will also have changed slightly as a result, but in favour of being more accurate. It would be good to eventually tease out the vote for the other parties manually, not only to see the Green Party vote, but also the seat where the Marijuana Party came second, etc. etc.

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