Look-ahead: 3rd Quarter Ends; Quarterly Subsidies Paid
Yesterday was the last day of the third quarter of 2009, meaning that any funds raised by the parties up until midnight will have to be reported to Elections Canada shortly, and will be publicly released at the end of the month. I guess recent history suggests that anyone who thinks they did well will start pre-releasing and spinning their numbers in time for the pundit panels any day now.
But, the two parties whose performance will be most closely watched are (i) the Liberals, to see if they can maintain the rate of increase in fundraising they achieved in the first two quarters, and (ii) the NDP, to see if they can recover as they maintained they would, after withdrawing from direct-ask fundraising during the first two quarters in favour of their provincial cousins with leadership races and provincial elections.
As we've noted here earlier, in an analysis of party contributions by donation size, the Liberals appeared to emphasize large donations in the first half of the year, the result of several fundraising dinners costing the maximum contribution size, and the price of delegate fees to attend their biannual convention in Vancouver (see graph below of Fundraising by Week, which shows peaks for the Toronto fundraising dinner and Vancouver convention). They showed almost 2,000 donors of $1,000 or more (representing about 38% of their funds raised to date), compared with 500 or so in the same category for the Conservatives, representing 6% or so of their fundraising totals.
If the remaining 3,900 or so Liberal donors over $200 each gave the remainder of their annual maximum in the 3rd quarter, the most the party could raise would be another $2.25M (compared with the $3.1M they raised from large donors in the 2nd quarter, and $1.8M in the 1st). This means that to maintain their current pace of fundraising (they've raised approximately $5.7M so far this year), they'll have to raise more money from their small contributors ($200 or less), certainly possible but a more organizationally-demanding undertaking, or else find and tap new donors both large and small. Historically, however, the Liberals have relied more on large and corporate donors, as the following chart demonstrates (individual donors of $200 or less are shown in dark red, with individual donors above $200, and corporate, labour and other donors all shown in light red).
Now while the Liberals raised $1.86M in the 3rd quarter of last year, that was during an election campaign. A more typical recent 3rd quarter for them was the $793K they raised in 2007, the $867K they raised in 2006, or the $1.06M they raised in 2005. However, to maintain their new pace of fundraising, we would expect to see numbers in the range of $2.0-$2.5M.
The NDP has a different kind of challenge. It had a difficult 1st quarter in 2009, similar to its 1st quarter in 2005. However its 2nd quarter was in line with recent years, both in number of donors, and average donation size in each of the major categories ($200 or less, and over $200). And while they fell off in the number and average size of small donations in the 1st quarter, most of the gap occurred in donations over $200. This kind of data would be consistent with the explanation that the central party did not do direct ask fund-raising during the 1st quarter, but continued to receive its regular monthly contributions from members and direct deposit donors.
The NDP raised $1.89M in the 3rd quarter of 2008, but again this was during an election, and so above average. A more typical 3rd quarter for them would have been the $720K they raised in 2005 or the $796K they raised in 2006 (they raised just $595 in the 3rd quarter of 2007, but posted stronger 1st and 4th quarters that year). So if we say that they needed to catch up to where they were at this stage in 2007, they would have to raise something in the order of $1.25M or so in the 3rd quarter; and if our interpretation of why their 1st and 2nd quarter numbers looked like they did is correct, we'd expect to see most of that come from their larger (i.e., over $200) donor-base. And of course their convention was held in August, with convention fees in the $300 range.
Historically, the NDP has relied more on small donors ($200 and less), although once the 76% tax creditable threshold moved from $200 to $400, they did show some commensurate improvement in the larger-size category. Again, contributions from small donors are shown in dark orange, with the remaining categories shown in light orange.
Meantime, the parties' quarterly allowances ("public subsidies") were paid out yesterday. Here's the history of payments:
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But, the two parties whose performance will be most closely watched are (i) the Liberals, to see if they can maintain the rate of increase in fundraising they achieved in the first two quarters, and (ii) the NDP, to see if they can recover as they maintained they would, after withdrawing from direct-ask fundraising during the first two quarters in favour of their provincial cousins with leadership races and provincial elections.
As we've noted here earlier, in an analysis of party contributions by donation size, the Liberals appeared to emphasize large donations in the first half of the year, the result of several fundraising dinners costing the maximum contribution size, and the price of delegate fees to attend their biannual convention in Vancouver (see graph below of Fundraising by Week, which shows peaks for the Toronto fundraising dinner and Vancouver convention). They showed almost 2,000 donors of $1,000 or more (representing about 38% of their funds raised to date), compared with 500 or so in the same category for the Conservatives, representing 6% or so of their fundraising totals.
If the remaining 3,900 or so Liberal donors over $200 each gave the remainder of their annual maximum in the 3rd quarter, the most the party could raise would be another $2.25M (compared with the $3.1M they raised from large donors in the 2nd quarter, and $1.8M in the 1st). This means that to maintain their current pace of fundraising (they've raised approximately $5.7M so far this year), they'll have to raise more money from their small contributors ($200 or less), certainly possible but a more organizationally-demanding undertaking, or else find and tap new donors both large and small. Historically, however, the Liberals have relied more on large and corporate donors, as the following chart demonstrates (individual donors of $200 or less are shown in dark red, with individual donors above $200, and corporate, labour and other donors all shown in light red).
Now while the Liberals raised $1.86M in the 3rd quarter of last year, that was during an election campaign. A more typical recent 3rd quarter for them was the $793K they raised in 2007, the $867K they raised in 2006, or the $1.06M they raised in 2005. However, to maintain their new pace of fundraising, we would expect to see numbers in the range of $2.0-$2.5M.
The NDP has a different kind of challenge. It had a difficult 1st quarter in 2009, similar to its 1st quarter in 2005. However its 2nd quarter was in line with recent years, both in number of donors, and average donation size in each of the major categories ($200 or less, and over $200). And while they fell off in the number and average size of small donations in the 1st quarter, most of the gap occurred in donations over $200. This kind of data would be consistent with the explanation that the central party did not do direct ask fund-raising during the 1st quarter, but continued to receive its regular monthly contributions from members and direct deposit donors.
The NDP raised $1.89M in the 3rd quarter of 2008, but again this was during an election, and so above average. A more typical 3rd quarter for them would have been the $720K they raised in 2005 or the $796K they raised in 2006 (they raised just $595 in the 3rd quarter of 2007, but posted stronger 1st and 4th quarters that year). So if we say that they needed to catch up to where they were at this stage in 2007, they would have to raise something in the order of $1.25M or so in the 3rd quarter; and if our interpretation of why their 1st and 2nd quarter numbers looked like they did is correct, we'd expect to see most of that come from their larger (i.e., over $200) donor-base. And of course their convention was held in August, with convention fees in the $300 range.
Historically, the NDP has relied more on small donors ($200 and less), although once the 76% tax creditable threshold moved from $200 to $400, they did show some commensurate improvement in the larger-size category. Again, contributions from small donors are shown in dark orange, with the remaining categories shown in light orange.
Meantime, the parties' quarterly allowances ("public subsidies") were paid out yesterday. Here's the history of payments:
Annual Allowances to Registered Parties, by Payment Date
| Period | Lib | NDP | Grn | BQ | Cons | Paid |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 - Q3 | $1,815,230 | $1,256,701 | $468,455 | $689,478 | $2,602,581 | 01-Oct-09 |
| 2009 - Q2 | $1,815,230 | $1,256,701 | $468,455 | $689,478 | $2,602,581 | 02-Jul-09 |
| 2009 - Q1 | $1,773,903 | $1,228,089 | $457,790 | $673,781 | $2,543,328 | 01-Apr-09 |
| 2008 - Q4 | $2,187,074 | $1,264,370 | $324,231 | $758,350 | $2,623,890 | 05-Jan-09 |
| 2008 - Q3 | $2,187,074 | $1,264,370 | $324,231 | $758,350 | $2,623,890 | 02-Oct-08 |
| 2008 - Q2 | $2,187,074 | $1,264,370 | $324,231 | $758,350 | $2,623,890 | 03-Jul-08 |
| 2008 - Q1 | $2,140,040 | $1,237,179 | $317,258 | $742,041 | $2,567,462 | 07-Apr-08 |
| 2007 - Q4 | $2,140,040 | $1,237,179 | $317,258 | $742,041 | $2,567,462 | 03-Jan-08 |
| 2007 - Q3 | $2,140,040 | $1,237,179 | $317,258 | $742,041 | $2,567,462 | 02-Oct-07 |
| 2007 - Q2 | $2,140,040 | $1,237,179 | $317,258 | $742,041 | $2,567,462 | 05-Jul-07 |
| 2007 - Q1 | $2,096,926 | $1,212,255 | $310,867 | $727,092 | $2,515,737 | 04-Apr-07 |
| 2006 - Q4 | $2,096,926 | $1,212,255 | $310,867 | $727,092 | $2,515,737 | 05-Jan-07 |
| 2006 - Q3 | $2,096,926 | $1,212,255 | $310,867 | $727,092 | $2,515,737 | 04-Oct-06 |
| 2006 - Q2 | $2,096,926 | $1,212,255 | $310,867 | $727,092 | $2,515,737 | 07-Jul-06 |
| 2006 - Q1 | $2,282,186 | $974,374 | $266,686 | $769,708 | $1,841,145 | 06-Apr-06 |
| 2005 - Q4 | $2,282,186 | $974,374 | $266,686 | $769,708 | $1,841,145 | 01-Jan-06 |
| 2005 - Q3 | $2,282,186 | $974,374 | $266,686 | $769,708 | $1,841,145 | 01-Oct-05 |
| 2005 - Q2 | $2,282,186 | $974,374 | $266,686 | $769,708 | $1,841,145 | 01-Jul-05 |
| 2005 - Q1 | $2,240,772 | $956,692 | $261,847 | $755,740 | $1,807,734 | 01-Apr-05 |
| 2004 - Q4 | $0 | $956,692 | $261,847 | $322,846 | $0.00 | 07-Jan-05 |
| 2004 - Q3 | ($49,646) | $12,958 | $261,847 | $0 | ($563,630) | 07-Oct-04 |
| 2004 - All | $9,191,054 | $1,914,269 | $2,411,022 | $8,476,872 | 01-Jan-04 | |
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Labels: Party Finance
posted by The Pundits' Guide at
6:09 PM
1 Comments:
Just a guess- essentially for the fun of putting one out there.
I don't think the Liberals are going to do that well this quarter because of the likely tapping out.
But my guess is that even if they continue to do nearly as well as the first 2 quarters, that they will lay off 'pre-releasing' good news about fundraising.
I think that monkey is sufficiently off their back.
The NDP might want to quietly let the media know if the quarter results show their fundraising dip in fact to be temporary. But they may also be less sensitive [or more used] to the digs and see it as best to leave be.
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