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BLOG -- Guide to the Pundits' Guide

Tuesday, September 29, 2009

Nominations by Type: Some Early Data

There's been a bit of interest in comments in the various political blogs awhile back, and again a couple times more recently, to the effect that if some parties have more contested nominations than others this is inherently better than if they don't. I'm not going to take a position one way or the other, but I am collecting data so you folks can debate it to your hearts' content.

One thing that's clear, though, is that contested nominations are the exception rather than the rule for most parties in most cases. Not one incumbent has been contested for the nomination to date in this election cycle, and the vast majority of non-incumbent nominations are also non-contested (in many cases, because the previous candidate or previous M.P. was renominated without being challenged, and so it might be an artefact of the curious situation we're in right now, with the possibility of an election so close to the last one).

At any rate, this is all preliminary data, but we'll keep looking at it from time to time throughout the pre-election period, if it's of continued interest.

Nom TypeLibNDPGrnBQConsOthAll
INCUMBENTS
Acclaimed
19
21

40
Protected
Incumbent
10


142
152
TOTAL INC.1019
21142
192
NON-INCUMBENTS
Contested24
(27.3%)
4
(12.9%)
3
(7.9%)
1
(16.7%)
7
(18.4%)

39
(19.1%)
Appointed1
(1.1%)





1
(0.5%)
Acclaimed/Other63
(71.6%)
27
(87.1%)
35
(92.1%)
5
(83.3%)
31
(81.6%)
3
(100%)
164
(80.4%)
TOTAL NON-INC.8831386383204

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