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BLOG -- Guide to the Pundits' Guide

Wednesday, September 23, 2009

Nomination News: United Nation of Tims Edition

OK, grab your double-double and low-fat blueberry muffin because the cross-country roundup of nomination news is getting on the road, starting tonight in one of the vacant seats:
  • Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, QC - Local Conservatives met last night to formally nominate their candidate for the forthcoming (by-)election in this riding, the retiring mayor of La Pocatière, Bernard Généreux, with Québec lieutenant Christian Paradis in attendance. Meanwhile the Bloc Québécois has scheduled its nomination meeting for this coming Sunday, and will welcome Bloc Leader Gilles Duceppe as they formalize the nomination of their only declared candidate, Nancy Gagnon, a former aide to former Bloc M.P. Paul Crête whose resignation opened up the seat. The by-election here must be called by Wednesday, November 18, although that would put E-day on something like Monday, December 29 for a short writ, so I'm guessing the Prime Minister either calls it earlier with New Westminster – Coquitlam, BC and Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, NS and possibly Hochelaga, QC, or else he waits and calls this one and Hochelaga together in the new year.
In other news, some other candidates have been selected in the past few days, and some meetings have been set. Let's drive from east to west:
  • Halifax, NS - A good turnout was reported Tuesday night (September 22) for the contested Liberal nomination in this riding, which saw medical doctor and adolescent mental health researcher Stan Kutcher defeat Chris Crowell by a vote of 351 to 204. Kutcher will now face first-time NDP M.P. Megan Leslie. No Conservative or Green candidates have been identified as yet. Thanks to several folks who reported on the meeting via Twitter!
  • Fundy Royal, NB - Area Liberals have called a nomination meeting for Wednesday, September 30, and to date the only declared candidate is Habitat for Humanity director of operations and long-time Liberal volunteer Dave Delaney, reports the Kings County Record. The riding is currently held by three-term Conservative M.P. Rob Moore, who defeated PC-turned-Liberal M.P. John Herron in 2004, and obtained over 50% of the vote last time around. This riding was also the only riding in New Brunswick where the Liberals fell to third place behind the NDP's Rob Moir on his second time running. It's not known if Moir, an economic professor at UNB, is planning to run again.
  • Miramichi, NB - We mentioned earlier that the contested Liberal nomination race here was down to three candidates, and a reader has been kind enough to get in touch and advise us of the nomination date, which has now been set for October 3. Keith Vickers, a former aide to former Liberal M.P. Charlie Hubbard, Véronique Arsenault, who recently stepped down as Chamber of Commerce executive director, and riding president Rob Hutchison will vy for the opportunity to face first-time Conservative M.P. Tilly Gordon-O'Neill in the next election. No news on any other party candidates here yet.
  • Brome – Missisquoi, QC - The 2008 NDP candidate, Christelle Bogosta, in this riding was renominated here by acclamation Tuesday night, where she'll be running against two-term Bloc Québécois M.P. Christian Ouellet, and former Liberal M.P. Denis Paradis. Thanks to a reading for passing along the details of this meeting.
  • Compton – Stanstead, QC - As reported here earlier, three-term Bloc Québécois M.P. France Bonsant was to be renominated here by acclamation tonight. Her Liberal opponent, 2008 candidate William Hogg, was nominated in late July, and the seat was on Denis Coderre's list of target seats as reported by Le Devoir earlier this summer. The Liberals last won this seat with former PC-turned-Liberal M.P. David Price running for them in 2000. Bonsant switched places with him in vote share in 2004, and has continued to win against a divided opposition vote.
It's also worth making another pitstop here for a second to highlight the visit made Tuesday to Québec city by Bloc Leader Gilles Duceppe to introduce his candidates for the Capital Region, some of whom have been nominated while some are still only declared. It's clear that the Bloc is focussing a great deal of effort to retake seats from the Conservatives in the provincial capital. Here's who was in attendance at the event:
  • Québec, QC - Six-term Bloc M.P. Christiane Gagnon (not yet renominated)
  • Beauport – Limoilou, QC - Michel Létourneau (not yet nominated, and a new name for us), who will be running against two-term Conservative M.P. Sylvie Boucher
  • Charlesbourg – Haute-Saint-Charles, QC - Félix Grenier (not yet nominated, and another new name for us), who will be running against two-term Conservative M.P. Daniel Petit
  • Louis-Saint-Laurent, QC - France Gagné (nominated June 14, 2009), who will be running against two-term Conservative M.P. Josée Verner, and recently nominated Liberal candidate Johanne Brisson. Some Liberals believe this seat will be their best hope in the city.
  • Louis-Hébert, QC - First-time Bloc M.P. Pascal-Pierre Paillé (nominated May 20, 2009)
  • Portneuf – Jacques-Cartier, QC - Richard Côté (nominated September 8, 2009), who will be running against two-term Independent M.P. André Arthur in this seat that surrounds the city of Québec. Duceppe has been scathing in recent weeks about Mr. Arthur's attendance record and effectiveness, and has made no bones about the fact that he wants to win the seat back for the Bloc.
  • Montmorency – Charlevoix – Haute-Côte-Nord, QC - Six-term Bloc M.P. Michel Guimond (not yet renominated), from further north-east of the city
Continuing across the country, our next stop is in eastern Ontario:
  • Kingston and the Islands, ON - Daniel Beals finished ahead of Pauline Kuhlmann in the contested NDP nomination race in this riding this past Tuesday, September 22, which now has all candidates in place save for the incumbent, Commons Speaker and Liberal M.P. Peter Milliken. Milliken is subject to continued speculation that he will not run for his seat again, but last I read had maintained his intention to do so. Thanks to several readers for getting in touch about this riding in the past few days.
  • Trinity – Spadina, ON - Two-term NDP M.P. Olivia Chow was to be renominated by acclamation in this seat on the same evening. She now faces a rematch with recently renominated Liberal candidate Christine Innes, and renominated 2008 Green candidate Stephen La Frenie. CTV's Graham Richardson told Power Play the other day that he was watching this seat as a barometer of the overall NDP-Liberal contest, citing Ms. Chow's 2008 margin of 3,484 votes. If you consult the riding profile page for this riding, you'll see that this represents a 5.8% margin, or 11.2 votes per poll. No Conservative name has surfaced in this riding as yet.
  • Beaches – East York, ON - A good catch by the Liberal Scarf blog, who found this clipping from the Toronto Star in which two-time federal NDP candidate and former provincial cabinet minister Marilyn Churley has ruled herself out of running federally next time and is turning her eyes municipally. The seat has been another perennial target of the NDP, which held its predecessor for many years under Neil Young and Andrew Brewin before him, but has been unable to unseat six-term Liberal M.P. Maria Minna, even though it holds the seat provincially.
  • Oakville, ON - Big crowds were also on hand Tuesday, according to a Twitter correspondent, for the 2-way 4-way contested nomination in this riding, eventually won by municipal councillor Max Khan. Khan will now face first-term Conservative M.P. Terence Young, who won the seat on his second match against former Liberal M.P. Bonnie Brown.
  • St. Catharines, ON - Andrew Gill was to be acclaimed as the Liberal candidate here the same evening, and will now face two-term Conservative M.P. Rick Dykstra, and Green Party candidate Jennifer Mooradian, who was acclaimed on June 25 (thanks to a reader for getting in touch to pass along the Green nomination info).
  • Niagara Falls, ON - Our Twitter correspondent was on duty again Wednesday night, at this uncontested Liberal nomination where lawyer Bev Hodgson was formalized as her party's candidate, after the withdrawal of Joyce Morocco to attend to family health concerns. Hodgson will be taking on long-time Conservative M.P. Rob Nicholson.
  • Oxford, ON - In the first of two potential party-switchers we're covering tonight, the Woodstock Sentinel-Review is reporting that the former 2004 and 2006 Marijuana Party candidate in this riding, small-business owner Jim Bender, is putting the finishing touches on his nomination papers to run under a red banner this time after some area Liberals had mused earlier in the summer about trying to recruit him. Bender cites his potential appeal to current non-voters as a competitive advantage, along with his previous experience as a candidate, believing that "the party will allow some flexibility to express his opinions and does not treat candidates in a heavy handed manner". Should Bender be successful, it would be third match against three-term Conservative M.P. Dave MacKenzie.
  • Thunder Bay – Rainy River, ON - First-time NDP M.P. John Rafferty was to be acclaimed after a 3-day 3-city nomination process in this northwestern Ontario riding tonight, and will now face the Liberal M.P. he defeated, former Liberal M.P. Ken Boshcoff, in their 4th rematch since 2004.
  • Westlock – St. Paul, AB - Also tonight, Liberals were meeting to formalize the nomination by acclamation of new candidate Rob Fox. Thanks to a reader for passing this information along. This northern Alberta riding is currently represented by two-term Conservative M.P. Brian Storseth, who obtained 72.7% of the vote last time around as turnout dropped to 51.1%.
  • Richmond, BC - The Richmond Review is reporting that some 3,800 Liberals are eligible to vote at this 3-way battle for the party nomination in this west coast riding. Running are two former Liberal M.P.s for the riding, Raymond Chan and Joe Peschisolido, and a former nomination candidate in a neighbouring riding Mason Loh. The riding was won as part of the Conservatives' successful strategy to target new Canadians in the last election, resoundingly electing first-time Conservative M.P. Alice Wong with nearly 50% of the vote.
  • North Vancouver, BC - Thanks to a reader, we learn from the North Vancouver Politics blog of another potential party switcher: none other than "Green Jim" Stephenson, who you'll recall stepped down as candidate and switched into this riding, in order to allow former Liberal M.P. Blair Wilson to cross the floor and run as a Green in the last election in neighbouring West Vancouver – Sunshine Coast – Sea to Sky Country, where Stephenson had originally been nominated. He now says he's concluded that "Green popularity between elections is high but, strategic voting during elections is what stops them from getting any seats", that "running again as a Green in North Van. would all but, guarantee Andrew Saxton's re-election", and that "the best bet is to try to be elected as a Green Liberal because the environmental issues we face are too dire to wait for voter reform to elect Green Members to Parliament". He said he nearly wasn't going to run at all, believing that running against former Liberal M.P. Don Bell (who is yes apparently going to go for it, as has been speculated here earlier) would be a "long shot". There's a good cross-section of comments on the blogpost that will give you a feeling for the local colour. As mentioned above, the riding was won by first-time Conservative M.P. Andrew Saxton in a surprise upset over former Liberal M.P. and one-time Mayor of North Vancouver Don Bell. Since his defeat, Bell tried unsuccessfully to win a BC Liberal nomination for the recent provincial election.
Speaking of former Liberal M.P.s, I fished out and updated my list of who's in and who's out, given the trend we were observing. As things stand at present, there are 21 former Liberal M.P.s either nominated, running for the nomination, or said to be interested in running for the forthcoming election.

Nominated (12) are: Alghabra, Boshcoff, Maloney, Paradis, Pratt, Redman, Simard, Speller, St.-Amand, Telegdi, Temelkovski, Valley.

Running (6) are: Bell, Chan, Peschisolido, Thibault, Turner, Wells.

Said to be interested (3) are: Bakopanos, Torsney, Zed.

Not running (14) are: Allard, Bertrand, Cauchon, Copps, Godbout, Kadis, Keeper, Keyes, Lastewka, Macklin, McArthur, Scherrer, St.-Denis, Stronach, Whelan.

To get on the last list, the former MPs had to have been reported to be approached to run and declined, or have a news story in which they ruled themselves out from running again, thus allowing the riding to launch a new candidate search. Some others on the list were reported to have been sidelined (wanting to run again, but either told not to or observed that they could not win), or else they lost a nomination meeting.

OK, that was a long drive, but if you have news we can stop in to report on our next cross-country nominations road-trip, why not drop us a line. And follow along @punditsguide on Twitter, where you too could be a Twitter correspondent from a nomination meeting in your area.

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5 Comments:

Blogger Aaron Ginsberg said...

Just received notice in the mail. Andrew Lang will be nominated by acclamation as the Liberal candidate in Toronto-Danforth on October 4th.

September 24, 2009 9:16 AM  
Anonymous D-Bar said...

The Liberals have opened up Outremont to a nomination race, where Martin Cauchon has indicated that he will run. (Just happened today)

September 25, 2009 1:52 PM  
Blogger ming said...

Joe Peschisolido will face Alice Wong for the next election.

http://www.bclocalnews.com/breaking_news/61981912.html

September 26, 2009 8:45 PM  
Blogger The Pundits' Guide said...

Thanks for the tips, everyone. Writing them now.

September 26, 2009 9:58 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

TAKE ME OUT TO THE BALL PARK
Canadian Press reported on Friday, Oct 16 (2009):
On another ethical front Friday, a non-partisan group asked the ethics, lobbyist and elections commissioners to investigate a fundraiser organized for Tory MP Rick Dykstra.
Democracy Watch said Dykstra hosted 60 “friends” last month in the owner’s box at Toronto’s Roger’s Centre for a Blue Jays baseball game. The donors got tickets to the game, access to the owner’s suite, food and drinks, an opportunity to attend batting practice and meetings with unidentified federal cabinet ministers and Blue Jays players.
The group wants to know what, if anything, Dykstra or the party paid for the various perks – particularly the owner’s box which can’t be rented and is only used with permission of owner Rogers Communications Inc., a company which lobbies the federal government.

October 18, 2009 2:32 PM  

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