Nomination News: Once More Across the Country
- St. John's South – Mount Pearl, NL - 2008 NDP candidate and recently-stepped-down evening show host on VOCM Radio (the "voice of the common man" for those unfamiliar with that mainstay of St. John's political culture), Ryan Cleary, won a contested nomination over Cory Collins this past Thursday, September 17, according to an email from a reader. He will now face a rematch with first-time Liberal M.P. Siobhan Coady, who placed about 2.8% of the vote ahead of him in the last race to replace retiring Conservative M.P. Loyola Hearn. What's unknown in this riding is the impact a more traditional Conservative vote share (if it is restored) would have on either Coady or Cleary, given that the Conservatives scored just 12.6% of the vote last time in contrast to Cleary's 40.6% and Coady's 43.3%. The Greens are not much of a factor in Newfoundland owing to conflicts related to the seal hunt issue, but even though their average vote rose from 0.9% to 1.7% last time across the province, the 2 St. John's seats were still their 2 smallest vote shares. NDP-PC switching, which might seem unusual in Toronto or Ottawa, is quite common in St. John's on the other hand, and of the 12,000 drop in Conservative votes between 2008 and 2006, it appears that Cleary got about 6,000 of them, Coady got another 2,500, with the other 3,500 staying home. And Coady has the incumbency advantage. Still there's also the strong likelihood that forces outside the control of either candidate could ultimately shape the outcome of this race, but either way this should be a very interesting riding to watch.
- South Shore – St. Margaret's, NS - In our last look at the east coast, we reported that former Liberal M.P. Derek Wells was seeking his party's nomination anew here. However, a clipping I subsequently came across from last weekend's Chronicle-Herald (and therefore probably offline by now) reported that software engineer Mark Delory (the son of 1988 Liberal candidate Mike Delory) is also running for the nomination, and a former provincial candidate Rick Welsford is also considering jumping in as well. The Liberal meeting will be held on Sunday, October 3. Former Halifax West NDP M.P. and 2008 candidate in this riding, Gordon Earle, will be running for his party's nomination a week earlier on Sunday, September 27, but may be contested, we're now hearing. The riding is currently held by five-term Conservative M.P. Gerald Keddy.
- Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, NS - We also reported on the outcome of the contested Liberal nomination race here last week, which was won by farmer Jim Burrows. Meanwhile, however, the NDP has announced the date of its nomination meeting, which will be held on Thursday, September 24 with two candidates vying for the prize. Running are 2008 candidate Karen Olsson, who placed a distant second to Independent M.P. Bill Casey last time, and Mark Austin (no biographical information available at time of writing). Conservative candidate Scott Armstrong has been in place since the end of May, while new Christian Heritage Party leader Jim Hnatiuk announced his candidacy here over the summer. The by-election in this riding must be called by Saturday, October 31, and might thus experience a small bit of overlap in timing (although not in boundaries) with two provincial by-elections which have just been called for Tuesday, October 20 in the ridings of Inverness and Antigonish following the resignations of the former Premier and Deputy Premier, Rodney MacDonald and Angus MacIsaac.
- West Nova, NS - Last weekend's Herald also reported that former three-term Liberal M.P. Robert Thibault is hoping to return to Ottawa, says he has Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff's encouragement to do so, and does not know of any challengers. The nomination meeting date has yet to be set, however. Thibault lost his seat in a surprise upset last time to retired teacher and first-time Conservative M.P. Greg Kerr, whom Thibault had ironically at one point dismissed as being too old to be a serious threat. The riding has often been settled by narrow margins between the Liberals and Conservatives, and has tossed out incumbents more than once. No potential NDP or Green candidates were mentioned in the story.
- Dartmouth – Cole Harbour, NS - One rumour that does appear to be off-base from the Herald story is the report that former NDP MLA Kevin Deveaux is looking at the NDP nomination here. Babblers report that Deveaux only just returned from a UN posting in Vietnam and is not likely to jump back into politics right away, although they felt his candidacy could be a "game-changer". The riding has been held by three-term Liberal M.P. Mike Savage since he won it away from the NDP on the retirement of former NDP M.P. Wendy Lill, and has been a perennial target seat for the NDP, particularly now as it contains premier Darrell Dexter's provincial seat of Cole Harbour.
- Miramichi, NB - Former Miramichi mayor John McKay cannot afford to run in the next election, he says, and is dropping out of the contested nomination race, even though he was the first to enter it. McKay told the Miramichi Leader that the Liberal riding association made it clear to him he would have to spend about $25,000 of his own money as the candidate, and he said he was reluctant to put the burden on his family by borrowing it. This leaves Keith Vickers, Véronique Arsenault, and Rob Hutchison still in the race, the winner of which will take on first-time Conservative M.P. Tilly O'Neill-Gordon.
- Abitibi – Baie-James – Nunavik – Eeyou, QC - Ah, the perils of democracy. We've been following the hints that have dropped about three-term Bloc Québécois incumbent Yvon Lévesque possibly encountering a rival for his nomination, and now we have a name courtesy of Radio-Canada, which is reporting that regional FTQ organizer Gilles Chapadeau met with party leader Gilles Duceppe when he was last through Abitibi-Témiscamingue next door, although parties insist the meeting was only to discuss union business. Still Chapadeau does admit he's been approached by many people in the riding asking him to run. The Bloc apparently plans to hold its nomination meeting in this riding 5 days into the campaign. The Liberals recently nominated engineer Léandre Gervais.
- Sherbrooke, QC - NDP Leader Jack Layton will be in Austin, Qué. next Wednesday to attend a fundraiser for his star candidate in this riding, TV host Yves Mondoux, reports the Sherbrooke Tribune. Mondoux was substituted in as NDP candidate very late in the 2008 campaign, when Bishops University professor Cheryl Gosselin had had to step down, and yet he still achieved 13% of the vote with few resources, said NDP Québec Lieutenant Tom Mulcair, who has promised the riding a much higher level of support this time around, and indeed it was named one of the Québec target seats by newly-appointed NDP campaign chair Brad Lavigne last week. 2008 Conservative candidate André Bachand has accepted a government appointment with UNESCO, while 2008 Liberal candidate Nathalie Goguen has elected to run municipally this fall instead, and no replacement has been identified as yet. Mondoux does not underestimate his remaining opponent, five-term Bloc Québécois M.P. Serge Cardin, but notes that "M. Cardin ne sera pas éternel". "Il faut préparer le changement," he says. No word on when the NDP nomination meeting is expected to be held, and Cardin has not been renominated for the Bloc in this riding as yet either.
- Trois-Rivières, QC - It appears that 2008 Conservative candidate Claude Durand will be running again in this riding, in light of the interview she gave to Le Nouvelliste about the "cost of the Bloc" this past week. The riding is currently held by three-term Bloc Québécois M.P. Paule Brunelle. Last we heard at the beginning of September, the Conservatives had not yet "opened" this riding for a nomination meeting, and were still interviewing several candidates, while Liberal Québec Lieutenant Denis Coderre was having trouble persuading the Liberal riding association to embrace his choice of a former Adéquiste, Sébastien Proulx, to run for their nomination.
- Shefford, QC - The NDP nomination meeting here will be held on Saturday, October 3. 2008 candidate Simon Gnocchini Messier is expected to be acclaimed once again. The riding is currently represented by three-term Bloc Québécois M.P. Robert Vincent.
- Montcalm, QC - The NDP nomination meeting here will be held tomorrow, but I don't have any information about who the candidate(s) might be. The riding is currently represented by four-term Bloc Québécois M.P. Roger Gaudet.
- Repentigny, QC - The NDP nomination meeting here will be held tomorrow as well, but again I have no information about who the candidate(s) might be. The riding is currently represented by first-time Bloc Québécois M.P. Nicolas Dufour.
- Outremont, QC - More developments tonight in the on-going story of how the Liberal candidate will be selected in this riding, as Joan Bryden from the Canadian Press gets former Liberal M.P. Martin Cauchon on the record asking Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff to hold an open nomination meeting, rather than let Québec lieutenant Denis Coderre appoint a woman candidate, said to be business executive Nathalie Le Prohon, "someone few Liberals know anything about," as Bryden writes. Cauchon tells CP that "somebody very, very close to the leader" had visited him in the spring asking him to run again, and he was quite surprised to learn after asking for the summer to think about it, that the riding had since been reserved for an appointed woman candidate by Coderre. The riding is currently held by two-time NDP M.P. Thomas Mulcair, but the Liberals want it back badly.
- Burlington, ON - The Liberal nomination meeting here, originally scheduled for tonight, had in fact been postponed on Wednesday (unfortunately I didn't see the email until this afternoon, so I apologize for any confusion my continuing to post it here may have caused). As at last we heard, former M.P. Paddy Torsney was intending to run again. She lost the seat to two-term Conservative M.P. Mike Wallace in 2004, and this would make their fourth consecutive contest.
- Renfrew – Nipissing – Pembroke, ON - Toronto lawyer Christine Tabbert who grew up in this riding was acclaimed its Liberal candidate at a nomination meeting this afternoon, reports the Daily Observer. She will now face four-term Conservative M.P. Cheryl Gallant.
- London – Fanshawe, ON - Thanks to a follower on Twitter for helping me to finally ascertain that municipal councillor Roger Caranci was indeed nominated for the Liberals in this riding. Now we just need to determine whether he was acclaimed, or won a contest, in order to enter him in the database (please get in touch if you can help). The riding is currently held by two-term NDP M.P. Irene Mathyssen, and Conservative candidate Jim Chahbar was also recently nominated.
- We should learn the names of the Liberal candidates in the three Hamilton area ridings (Hamilton East - Stoney Creek, Hamilton Centre, and Hamilton Mountain) this weekend, according to this story in the Stoney Creek News.
- Winnipeg Centre, MB - Well, it's the night for solving mysteries in Manitoba. Thanks first of all to one reader who got in touch to confirm that Conservative candidate Bev Pitura was acclaimed her party's candidate on May 15. Meanwhile, five-term NDP M.P. Pat Martin is set to be renominated on Friday, September 25, while the Liberals will select their candidate the following evening, where Allan Wise, who is on the staff of the Community Education Development Association (CEDA), is so far the only nominated candidate.
- Churchill, MB - And another reader was kind enough to get in touch and pass along this clipping from the Thompson Citizen, which confirms what we had wondered about before: Wally Daudrich was renominated as the Conservative candidate earlier this summer, after a 3-way contested nomination against Opaskwayak Educational Authority education director James B. Wilson and retired RCMP officer and Cross Lake businessman Derick Hilliker that concluded on July 25, 2009. The riding is currently held by first-time NDP M.P. Nikki Ashton, who was recently renominated herself, and Liberal candidate Sydney Garrioch has been in place for several months now.
- Edmonton – Spruce Grove, AB - Apparently Liberals have already renominated 2008 candidate Chris Austin here, but I haven't been able to determine either the date on which this occurred or whether there was a contest. If you can fill us in on either detail, please get in touch. The riding is currently represented by three-term Conservative M.P. Rona Ambrose, who earned 68.5% of the vote last time.
- Edmonton – Leduc, AB - Liberals have scheduled a nomination meeting here for Wednesday, September 30 at which 2008 candidate Donna Lynn Smith is expected to be acclaimed. The riding is currently held by four-term Conservative M.P. James Rajotte, who received 63.5% of the vote in the last election.
- Westlock – St. Paul, AB - A week earlier Liberals will meet in this northern Alberta riding to pick a new candidate, likely to be Rob Fox (no biographical information available at time of writing). The riding is now represented by two-term Conservative M.P. Brian Storseth, who took over on the retirement of former Conservative M.P. Dave Chatters. Storseth earned nearly 73% of the vote here last time. Wow. Thanks to a reader for passing these two items along, by the way.
- Richmond, BC - We earlier wrote about the brewing 3-way heavy-weight contest for the Liberal nomination in this riding, but the Richmond News has taken the moniker literally in this review of the race between former MPs Raymond Chan and Joe Peschisolido and newcomer Mason Loh. The race will be decided at a nomination meeting scheduled for Saturday, September 26, and the winner will then face first-time Conservative M.P. Alice Wong.
- Vancouver Quadra, BC - Our fellow political junkies on the Blogging Tories board have been watching this riding, and report that in addition to Tony Fogarassy, by-election and 2008 general election candidate Deborah Meredith is also planning to run for the Conservative nomination again here. No meeting date is being reported as yet. The riding is currently held by Liberal M.P. Joyce Murray, who narrowly won the March 2008 by-election, and then returned with a bigger margin in October.
- Skeena – Bulkley Valley, BC - Three-term NDP M.P. Nathan Cullen was renominated by acclamation in this northern BC riding this evening. So far, Cullen has no nominated opponents. He won the riding with almost 50% of the vote last time around.
- Saanich – Gulf Islands, BC - Last but not least, Green Party Leader Elizabeth May is celebrating the completion of the first hurdle in this leg of her race to be elected the country's first Green M.P. With 100 party members in attendance, May outpolled her challenger Stuart Hertzog, to win the party's nomination, accusing him of "trying to throw mud at somebody and hoping some of it sticks", but saying that she's "not going to waste anymore time thinking about it frankly because there was nothing to it". She will now face recently nominated Liberal candidate Renée Hetherington, five-term Conservative M.P. Gary Lunn, and an NDP candidate to be picked later this fall.
Thanks also to the many people who've started following me on Twitter. Now that I'm caught up with the nomination news, I'll be sorting through all those emails and adding most of you in return (not you spammers though, and not that one guy who posted pictures of women's derrières at the Calgary Stampede), since it actually makes a great network of people to ask these kinds of picky questions to from time to time.
The only real remaining gap is the list of Green candidates, for most of whom I do not have a nomination date and/or nomination type, since no associated news clippings have emerged from my Google Alerts. As time permits, I will be writing to them and trying to track that down, but of course if people could help me out there (hint, hint) it would always be appreciated.
Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Bloc Québécois, Conservatives, Greens, Liberals, NDP



5 Comments:
Caranci was acclaimed in London Fanshawe.
Thanks, Anon. Just entered the data. Home sick today :-(
My understanding is that the majority of the GPC candidates have been identified, but the nominations have not been officially confirmed yet. You will see a really big rush when there is more certainty, (ie when the writ is dropped).
Many of the putative candidates are already out canvassing etc. so it won't be as lame as usual, and I expect fewer 'warm bodies' and more real candidates this time around, although some of the stronger candidates, like Mike Nagy in Guelph won't be running again.
Thanks, BGB. I'm going to redouble my efforts this week to make sure that list is more complete. There was a lot of early activity in Ontario that I picked up through my Google Alerts, but a lot of the rest has evidently been flying under the radar.
HaHaHa! What, the Green Party under the radar? Sometimes I shake my head at my own Party, perhaps you should convert to sonar if you want to spot Greens in action.
If you remember the election scare in spring 2005, a lot of EDA's got snookered because they selected candidates early, and were left with candidates who changed their minds, or had their circumstances altered in the 9 months between nomination and actual election. That's part of the reason why EDA's hold their fire. Another is that all the EDA's were ordered to find a Candidate by June of this year. Being Greens, the natural reaction of the Grass roots was to stop their public candidate searches, and make every effort not to nominate by June.
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