A new vacancy occurred in the House of Commons yesterday when, as expected, long-time Bloc Québcois M.P. Réal Ménard resigned his Hochelaga, QC seat to run in the forthcoming Montréal municipal elections.

The process now is for the Speaker to notify the Chief Electoral Officer of the vacancy, the receipt of which is usually signalled by a news release from Elections Canada (although none had been posted at time of writing). Between 11 and 180 days after that, the Prime Minister must call a by-election.

Now, there has been a lot of confusion on the rules governing this issue in the past day or so, because people are not familiar with the provisions of the Elections Act. I admit that until I started this website, there was one I was not familiar with either. So, let's review the process:

• The Member resigns.
• The Commons Speaker sends a notice of the vacancy to the Chief Electoral Officer (CEO).
  
• The CEO announces receipt of that notice via an Elections Canada news release, and starts the clock on when the by-election must be called.
  
• Between 11 and 180 days after the clock is started, the Prime Minister must call the by-election, which must be held at least 36 days afterwards (but could in fact be held much further down the road), so long as voting day falls on a Monday (or a Tuesday if the preceding Monday were a statuatory holiday). There is no maximum time placed on the length of the campaign period, only a minimum time of 36 days.
  
• The CEO issues a writ to the Returning Officer in the affected riding, launching the by-election.
  
• The CEO announces the spending limits for the candidates.
• The parties nominate or select candidates according to their own process.
• The candidates must then be nominated with Elections Canada according to the provisions of the Elections Act, prior to the deadline of E-21 (i.e., 21 days before voting day) at 2:00 p.m. local-time. If they are running under the banner of a political party, they must present a leader letter containing that party leader's endorsement at the same time.
  
• A candidate may withdraw before E-21 at 5:00 p.m. local-time. If a candidate withdraws after that time, her/his name will still remain on the ballot. If a candidate who has been endorsed by a political party withdraws between 2:00 p.m. and 5:00 p.m. local-time on E-21, the political party has no further chance to field a candidate. If a candidate withdraws before 2:00 p.m. local-time, the political party still has a chance to nominate and endorse another candidate, so long as it is done before 2:00 p.m. local-time.
• The CEO announces the spending limits for the registered parties who are running candidates in that riding (or set of ridings).
  
• By-election voting takes place at advance polls and on voting day.
  
• Preliminary counts take place, followed by the validated results, and any judicial recounts that may be required.
• The writ is returned and the CEO so advises the Commons Speaker.
• The new M.P. is sworn in.
• The official count is tabulated and released somewhat later, as are the candidate financial returns.

So given that there are now 4 vacant seats, each with different clocks, what are the likely dates for by-election calls assuming the Prime Minister would like to synchronize the calls? Well, it would have to come sometime *after* the first day for calling Hochelaga, QC (estimated to fall around Sunday, September 27), but still *before* the last day for calling New Westminster – Coquitlam, BC (Tuesday, October 13), as follows:

	Hoch	MIKR	CCMV	NWC
Date of resignation:	Wed Sep 16, 2009	Thu May 21, 2009	Thu Apr 30, 2009	Mon Apr 13, 2009
Date Speaker's warrant received by CEO:	<unk.>	Fri May 22, 2009	Mon May 4, 2009	Thu Apr 16, 2009
Earliest date the by-election could be called (11 days later):	[est.] Sun Sep 27, 2009	Tue June 2, 2009	Fri May 15, 2009	Mon Apr 27, 2009
Earliest date the by-election could be held (first Monday at least 36 days after that):	[est.] Mon Nov 2, 2009	Mon Jul 13, 2009	Mon Jun 22, 2009	Mon Jun 8, 2009
Latest date the by-election could be called (180 days later):	[est.] Mon Mar 15, 2010	Wed Nov 18, 2009	Sat Oct 31, 2009	Tue Oct 13, 2009
Latest date the by-election could be held (first Monday at least 36 - [no maximum] days later, or the next non-Statuatory holiday):	[est.] on or after Mon Apr 26, 2010	on or after Tue Dec 29, 2009	on or after Mon Dec 7, 2009	on or after Mon Nov 23, 2009

This would put voting day somewhere between November 2 and 23, assuming a 36 day campaign. However as campaigns can be longer than 36 days, we don't know exactly when voting day will occur, only when the call must occur in order for them to be called together.

Now, the Quebec municipal elections will occur on November 1, 2009 this year. Assuming one would not want to run federal by-elections concurrently with these municipal elections, we could see all four by-election calls come towards the end of this window, or else the P.M. may decide to call just the first two by-elections now, and leave the two Québec ones for later on.

However we will know one way or the other by October 13, as that is the last day the call for New Westminster – Coquitlam, BC can come. And the earliest we would hear anything is the weekend before the House returns on Monday, September 28.

Labels: Hochelaga, Vacant Seats