Browse

Quick Search

... by Riding
... by Candidate

Upcoming Nomination Meetings

|
Home: Blog--Guide to the Pundits' Guide

BLOG -- Guide to the Pundits' Guide

Monday, August 10, 2009

Nomination News: Cottage Catchup II

While I've been working on the new Party Finance module here at Pundits' Guide, and wow'ing at some new Google Earth magic over at Stephen Taylor's site, the nomination news has been piling up. So now's as good a time as any to get us caught up, starting with an important decision Green Party leader Elizabeth May seems to have made, in light of the first by-election window closing:
  • Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, NS - May is telling the Hill Times this week (subscription only) that since no summer by-election has been called as yet for this vacant riding, she's out:
    Federal Green Party Leader Elizabeth May ... said she hoped the Prime Minister would announce byelections for vacant seats in the House of Commons, but since he has not done so yet she’s ruled that out as a possible avenue to get herself into the House of Commons and is now actively searching for a riding to run in for the next general election.
    “The moment has arrived where I have to say it’s too late for a byelection. I was hoping there might be a summer byelection in Nova Scotia in [former Ind. MP] Bill Casey’s riding, but even it were to be called tomorrow we’re in a position where it would morph into a September general election, just as happened last year,” Ms. May told The Hill Times in a phone interview last week from the Ontario riding of Bruce-Grey-Owen-Sound, where she was in town gauging reaction to her possible candidacy there.
    May names the ridings of Bruce – Grey – Owen Sound, ON, Guelph, ON and Saanich – Gulf Islands, BC as still being under active consideration for her to run in during a general election. More from the BlueGreenBlogger at the Not An Official Green Party Canada Site blog here. Meantime, the Conservatives have their CCMV candidate in place, the Liberals are having a contested nomination between Tracy Parsons and Jim Burrows, and the NDP is expected to announce its nomination plans either in the leadup to their Halifax convention, which is convening later this week, or shortly thereafter.
  • Saint John, NB - The Globe and Mail's Jane Taber is reporting that Paul Zed is planning to return home to his former riding for a fundraiser with Michael Ignatieff next week and announce his intention to run for reelection there. Zed had narrowly defeated two other Conservative opponents in 2004 and 2006, narrowly lost to first-time Conservative M.P. Rodney Weston in 2008 by under 500 votes in the 14th closest race of the last election.
  • Portneuf – Jacques-Cartier, QC - The Bloc Québécois candidate who nearly defeated two-term Independent conservative M.P. André Arthur in 2008 appears to be back for another try, according to le Québec Hebdo. Although he is not listed as renominated yet at the Elections Canada website (and the Bloc is pretty fastidious about that, so I'm guessing it's not formalized yet), Richard Côté was nevertheless part of the Bloc caucus' summer tour event in the Québec city event last week. Arthur was reelected by a margin of 1.5% over Côté, in the only riding the Conservative Party did not contest in the last election. Ironically, while the Conservatives bowed out to help protect Arthur who has usually voted with them in Parliament, Arthur's raw vote actually fell by 5,000 votes, while the Liberals, NDP and Bloc (in that order) saw an increase in their raw vote instead and the overall turnout dropped from 69% to 60%. An interesting case study for the proponents of strategic voting, to be sure!
  • Saint-Maurice – Champlain , QC - This riding is on the list of new Québec Liberal nomination meetings recently announced (more on this below), and according to the Liberal Scarf blog Shawinigan city councillor (Ms.) France Beaulieu will be contesting the nomination on Wednesday August 26 when the meeting is to be held, along with 2008 candidate Ronald St-Onge Lynch who has apparently said on his Facebook page that if he doesn't win the nomination or get appointed a candidate by the leader, he will be running regardless as an independent. Two-term Bloc Québécois M.P. Jean-Yves Laforest currently represents the riding.
  • Gatineau, QC - The race for the Liberal nomination is heating up in this western Québec riding, just across the bridge from Ottawa, reports le Droit. 2008 candidate and lawyer Michel Simard held a rally last week to announce his candidacy, claiming the support of the former Mayor, while former party national director Steve McKinnon issued a news release on the same day claiming the support of the majority of the riding executive. Liberals placed a close third in this riding last time, just behind their former M.P. now running for the NDP, Françoise Boivin, and two-term Bloc Québécois M.P. Richard Nadeau. The party is evidently interested in recouping the seat, with a third candidate reportedly set to enter the nomination race, now scheduled for September 3.
  • Halton, ON - More reaction to Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff's appointment of businesswoman Deborah Gillis as the party's candidate here from the Oakville Beaver. In fact the third candidate Gary Zemlak had been greenlighted as well, and says that he's disappointed but understands that the party wants to hit its target number of women candidates, the Beaver reports. Originally from Cape Breton, Toronto businesswoman Gillis was appointed to take on another businesswoman from Toronto but formerly of Cape Breton, who also received her candidacy by appointment last time, first-time Conservative M.P. Lisa Raitt. Also running is businesswoman Amy Collard for the Green Party, which makes this riding the first one I've seen so far with all (business-) women candidates. Meantime, the Hill Times erroneously reported this morning (subscription only) that Ignatieff had appointed 4 women candidates, but that's a misreading of the news release. In fact, Gillis was the only appointee; two others were already acclaimed by their riding associations, while Marjorie Black is expected to be acclaimed in Newmarket – Aurora, ON on August 12.
  • Oakville, ON - Just south of Halton, there are now 4 candidates in the running for the Liberal nomination in this riding, currently held by first-time Conservative M.P. Terence Young, according to the Oakville Beaver. We already reported that Connie Laurin-Bowie was running, and she is now being joined by two city councillors, Max Khan and Mary Chapin, and local businesswoman Darla Campbell. Young defeated former long-time Liberal M.P. Bonnie Brown in 2008 on his second try, having narrowly lost to her in 2006. Brown won the riding formerly held by Conservative M.P. Otto Jelinek in 1993 with fewer votes than the combined Reform Party and Progressive Conservative parties' support combined, and held the seat through four further elections. This will be the kind of seat to watch to see whether the Liberals can regain their former position in Ontario in spite of a united conservative political party. Thanks to a reader for passing along this clipping.
  • Thunder Bay – Superior North, ON - I earlier erroneously reported the Liberal nomination meeting here as occurring tomorrow (August 11), but in fact it is scheduled for August 12 according to NetNewsLedger.com. As reported here several times, contesting it will be Don McArthur, Yves Fricot, and Joe Virdiramo. Michael Auld recently won a very closely contested Conservative nomination meeting on a coin toss. The riding is currently held by first-time NDP M.P. Bruce Hyer.
  • Winnipeg South, MB - In a story this past weekend Winnipeg Free Press columnist (and a former Carleton University contemporary of mine) Dan Lett ran down the brewing race in this riding, and the nomination candidacy of former Manitoba Clean Environment Commission chair and current CEO of the International Centre for Infectious Diseases, Terry Duguid (which we first reported here last month). This morning, Duguid made it official, reports Mia Rabson, with a nomination meeting expected sometime in September. The riding is currently represented by two-term Conservative M.P. Rod Bruinooge, who narrowly defeated former Liberal M.P. Reg Alcock in 2006 by just 111 votes, but held the seat more decisively last time around. Duguid has run federally twice before in Kildonan – St. Paul, MB. Thanks to a reader for sending this last clipping along.
  • Dauphin – Swan River – Marquette, MB - The Free Press would have also had a head start reporting this story, since one of their columnists, conservationist Robert Sopuck, will be seeking the Conservative nomination in this riding, about to be vacated by retiring Conservative M.P. Inky Mark. Sopuck may be joined in a nomination race by riding president Wayne Mathison. Mark first won the previous incarnation of this riding in a very tight four-way race, but was returned with over 60% of the vote on his last run for office. So far, the Green Party has renominated its 2006-08 candidate Kate Storey, but no other parties have selected their candidates.
  • Saskatoon – Rosetown – Biggar, SK - We earlier reported that two-time NDP candidate Nettie Wiebe was set to give it one more shot in the forthcoming election, and now a reader writes to confirm that the riding association has set Wednesday, September 9 for their nomination meeting and Wiebe is the only declared candidate to this point. She came within 1% of the vote of besting first-time Conservative M.P. Kelly Block in the race to replace retiring Conservative M.P. Carol Skelton last time, in a sharply divided urban-vs-rural contest.
  • Saskatoon – Humboldt, SK - In the neighbouring riding, which has gone from a tight four-way race in 2004 to a cakewalk for three-time Conservative M.P. Brad Trost, as many as three candidates are now vying for the NDP nomination to take him on in 2008 the next election (sorry, working too late there!), with a meeting pencilled in for Thursday, September 10. Apparently confirmed as running are recent U Sask grad Scott Stelmaschuk and community activist Denise Kouri, while 2008 candidate Scott Ruston apparently hasn't decided whether to enter the race as yet, but reportedly will once the meeting date is locked down. Thanks again to the reader for passing this along as well.
  • Langley, BC - Another reader passed along a link to the Liberal nomination meeting notice for this riding on Tuesday, August 18, where the indispensible Langley Politics blog is confirming (as we first reported back in January in the very first Nomination News update of the current election cycle) that Rebecca Darnell will be running, and appears uncontested to date. The riding is currently held by three-term Conservative M.P. Mark Warawa, who has won it handily on each outing.
  • Saanich – Gulf Islands, BC - Another Liberal nomination meeting date has now been confirmed as well for Saturday, September 12, this time the contested race we've reported on here before between Kit Spence and Renée Hetherington. The riding boasts one of the more interesting storylines of the last election, including more registered third party advertisers than any other single riding in the country, three candidates who at one time were all members of the Green Party and at one point proposed to hold a Shun-Lunn run-off race prior to the campaign, one of whom was later outed for some activities in his past and shunned by his own party, but whose resignation as a candidate occurred too late for his name to be withdrawn from the ballot, and allegedly on whose behalf some robo-calling was done late in the campaign. The spoof robo-calling incident and some questions about the third party spending reports were raised with the Commissioner of Canada Elections by the president of the Liberal riding association, and the reply he received from Elections Canada is, interestingly, now posted on the riding's website (warning, large PDF). The riding could continue to be interesting, should Green Party Leader Elizabeth May in fact decide to take the plunge here next time, as she mused to the Hill Times above.
  • Nanaimo – Cowichan, BC - Thanks to a reader for passing along this brief from the Nanaimo Daily News announcing the contested Conservative nomination meeting scheduled for August 29 between Duncan chiropractor Martin Baker and North Cowichan city councillor, John Koury. More here from the Cowichan News Leader and Pictorial, and the Cowichan Valley Citizen. 2008 Conservative candidate and former M.P. Reed Elley is now the riding president, and does not appear to be interested in running again. The riding is currently represented by two-term NDP M.P. Jean Crowder, and a contested Liberal nomination is also underway but with no meeting date set as yet.
OK, that's a wrap on the riding-specific news. As mentioned above, the Liberals have announced a new series of nomination meetings in Québec, all of which have now been added to the growing list of Nomination Meetings in the left-hand column, which should bring them to 54 officially nominated candidates by the time the House resumes sitting on September 14. We should also start to be seeing a new list of Bloc Québécois nomination meetings, which were promised by Gilles Duceppe and his organizer Mario Laframboise earlier this summer, while the NDP appears to be working on its next tier target ridings, and a few first-time incumbents for their earliest meetings. The Conservative process appears to be a lot more low-key, in many cases being completed by riding association candidate search committees who acclaim a candidate after a search process concludes. I've just noticed that the Green Party has added a number of new candidates to their website list, but due to the late hour I'll have to include them in the next update.

If you have nomination news to share, why not jot me a note so I can include it in the next nomination news update. And join follow the Pundits' Guide on Twitter for the latest.

Labels: , , , , , , ,

6 Comments:

Blogger o.NDP said...

Nice work on the party finance module. One graphic that would be interesting would be a histogram of the party donors/donations (perhaps by decile of annual max?) so you could see how heavily the parties were relying on different set$ of donors. A lower res stat that would be peripherally interesting would be the number of donors that gave the annual maximum. I don't know what the Elections Canada stats look like but it would be very cool to separate out donations given on monthly PACs vs. one-time donations (I'm guessing this is impossible). It would also be interesting to see the regional breakdown of donations (e.g. using the postal code data) but that sounds like it could be a lot of work.

August 10, 2009 11:43 PM  
Blogger The Pundits' Guide said...

Hi o.NDP, and thanks for the comment. It's nice to get some validation from an economist for work such as this.

As to the suggestion for a histogram on donations by size, you might recall that I did do one for the first quarter's contributions (see here). The available data allows you to download each quarter's individual donors >$200, stick them into a database, run a SQL statement using a group by clause that takes the total for each unique combination of first and last name, and then put the results of that dataset into a histogram.

A couple of problems:

* parents and children with the same names will get lumped together (although the methodology will distinguish between Fredrik J. and Fredrik S. Eaton, for example),
* someone on a monthly PAC (pre-authorized chequing contribution, such as the Liberal's Victory Fund) whose annual PAC is worth over $200, but whose monthly contributions sum to less than that, will not show up in the over $200 category until the end of the year; thus the analysis has to be done cumulatively for each quarter, and the figures are not comparable across quarters, except by people within the parties who know the true state of affairs
* as you can imagine, it's a labour intensive manual analysis that can't be automated without designing a normalized relational database for individual contributors, and writing a new module around it. I really view a database of individual contributors as outside the scope of the Pundits' Guide, and more in the realm of opposition research than strategic data analysis research. So unless someone wants to pay me to do that for them, I've got other personal priorities that are a bit higher up on the list.

Like you, I'm also interested in the number of monthly PAC contributors, but from the earlier discussion you can see the limitations on its feasibility. It's quite likely that many of the very large number of Conservative small donors give monthly contributions of $5 to $10 dollars, and would never show up by name for counting purposes. It's been explained to me that even if the cost of maintaining small monthly donations might exceed the net revenue they yield, the Conservatives view this as a way of intensifying the individuals' commitment to the party, and thus consider it worthwhile overall.

The regional distribution probably requires a file from Elections Canada. I know it's available because that's what Glen McGregor from the Ottawa Citizen used for his excellent feature of last year, "If Money Were Votes". However, you can't get it just by downloading the parties' details over $200, only by clicking on one contributor name at a time. So either McGregor separately obtained the file, or he wrote a web-scraping program to obtain it that way. Then he would have had to cross-reference the postal codes with the postal-codes-by-riding file one can purchase from Statistics Canada.

So, I love all your suggestions, and if I could ever financially make the Pundits' Guide into a full-time project, they would definitely be on the list of analyses to add. I did promise another commenter that I would try to complete an analysis of the tapped-out-ness of the parties after the 2nd quarter, and hope to get to that sooner rather than later.

Your extensive feedback is really appreciated. Thank you for taking the time to read and comment.

August 11, 2009 7:21 AM  
Blogger o.NDP said...

Great work pundits' guide. I'm not surprised that you had already thought of these angles.

August 11, 2009 5:49 PM  
Blogger Ken Summers said...

Just a follow-up comment on that.

Using the party finance module you can look at general trends that are similar to the kinds of questions o.NDP is suggesting.

For example, you can't get PACs versus one time donations for a party. But if you look at the contributions for a party across a few years, with the bar for each year broken down into quarters, you can pick out a good estimate of their fundraising floor [PACs plus one times that are 'habituals'], and what the range is for fundraising driven by the factors that are more variable.

August 12, 2009 3:45 AM  
Blogger Edmund said...

Small point, but when you say, re: Saskatoon-Humboldt:

as many as three candidates are now vying for the NDP nomination to take him on in 2008

I think you mean "in the next election". Unless the NDP has invented a time machine …

August 12, 2009 10:34 AM  
Blogger The Pundits' Guide said...

Oh dear, you're right Edmund. Thanks for your eagle-eyed reading of my posts; I'll fix that straight away!

August 12, 2009 10:38 AM  

Post a Comment

Links to this post:

Create a Link

<< Home