Green Day in Saanich – Gulf Islands
Green Party Leader Elizabeth May, believing that a general election will be held this fall, has picked her seat, and tells the Vancouver Sun's Barbara Yaffe that she plans to run in Saanich – Gulf Islands, BC this time.
Green activists have been expecting that this seat would be her eventual choice for some time, although some favoured other seats for her. The riding boasted the Green Party's best performance in terms of vote-share under candidate Andrew Lewis in 2004, with 16.7% of the vote, but fell to 9.9% and the 9th best seat in 2006, returning above the rebate threshold to 10.5% in 2008 with Lewis running again, but former Green Party member Briony Penn running for the Liberals.
This selection appears to cap a summer of either decision-making or public relations peek-a-boo for Ms. May, who told Ontario CBC radio only last week that she was still considering running in Bruce – Grey – Owen Sound, ON, according to Susan Delacourt's blog. Nevertheless, she now tells Yaffe that she will be picking up and moving out west from Nova Scotia "almost immediately".
What it also appears to do is rule May out of the running in any by-elections that might be held this fall. She concluded based on experience from last year that by-elections can be precluded by the call of unexpected general elections, as she told the Hill Times for yesterday's edition. But of course this assumes that the government will indeed fall in the autumn sitting, an eventuality that is by no means a foregone conclusion yet either.
May also tells Barbara Yaffe that Liberal Party President Alfred Apps asked her to run for them earlier this summer, an offer she says she declined but countered with an offer to serve as the Environment Minister in a Liberal government.
She claims the party's polling indicates that the BC seat could be winnable for her, and notes that Tommy Douglas once turned to the seat to enter the House of Commons. In fact, Douglas ran in the old riding of Nanaimo-Cowichan-The Islands, which shares the Islands with Saanich-Gulf Islands but not much else: the former contained Nanaimo, Duncan, Cowichan and Chemainus, while the latter contains the Saanich peninsula and Sidney: very different demographics to say the least.
The riding is currently held by five-term Conservative M.P. Gary Lunn. I've just updated the candidate financial returns data from the last election, and see that 2008 Green Party candidate Andrew Lewis' return has still not been filed. As to be expected, Lunn and Penn both waged close to fully-funded campaigns, with Lunn spending 98% of the limit and Penn spending 90%. NDP candidate Julian West's return shows just 19% of the limit spent, virtually all of it except a few items like credit union fees paid out prior to his resignation as the NDP candidate.
Liberals in the riding have just scheduled their nomination contest for Saturday, September 12, the weekend before the House of Commons is scheduled to resume sitting on Monday September 14.
All in all, this should be a riding worth watching in the coming political season, as Ms. May's strategic decision here will have a significant influence over her future and that of her party, and may also have some influence on decisions taken by other parties in the ridings she declined to run in.
Green activists have been expecting that this seat would be her eventual choice for some time, although some favoured other seats for her. The riding boasted the Green Party's best performance in terms of vote-share under candidate Andrew Lewis in 2004, with 16.7% of the vote, but fell to 9.9% and the 9th best seat in 2006, returning above the rebate threshold to 10.5% in 2008 with Lewis running again, but former Green Party member Briony Penn running for the Liberals.
This selection appears to cap a summer of either decision-making or public relations peek-a-boo for Ms. May, who told Ontario CBC radio only last week that she was still considering running in Bruce – Grey – Owen Sound, ON, according to Susan Delacourt's blog. Nevertheless, she now tells Yaffe that she will be picking up and moving out west from Nova Scotia "almost immediately".
What it also appears to do is rule May out of the running in any by-elections that might be held this fall. She concluded based on experience from last year that by-elections can be precluded by the call of unexpected general elections, as she told the Hill Times for yesterday's edition. But of course this assumes that the government will indeed fall in the autumn sitting, an eventuality that is by no means a foregone conclusion yet either.
May also tells Barbara Yaffe that Liberal Party President Alfred Apps asked her to run for them earlier this summer, an offer she says she declined but countered with an offer to serve as the Environment Minister in a Liberal government.
She claims the party's polling indicates that the BC seat could be winnable for her, and notes that Tommy Douglas once turned to the seat to enter the House of Commons. In fact, Douglas ran in the old riding of Nanaimo-Cowichan-The Islands, which shares the Islands with Saanich-Gulf Islands but not much else: the former contained Nanaimo, Duncan, Cowichan and Chemainus, while the latter contains the Saanich peninsula and Sidney: very different demographics to say the least.
The riding is currently held by five-term Conservative M.P. Gary Lunn. I've just updated the candidate financial returns data from the last election, and see that 2008 Green Party candidate Andrew Lewis' return has still not been filed. As to be expected, Lunn and Penn both waged close to fully-funded campaigns, with Lunn spending 98% of the limit and Penn spending 90%. NDP candidate Julian West's return shows just 19% of the limit spent, virtually all of it except a few items like credit union fees paid out prior to his resignation as the NDP candidate.
Liberals in the riding have just scheduled their nomination contest for Saturday, September 12, the weekend before the House of Commons is scheduled to resume sitting on Monday September 14.
All in all, this should be a riding worth watching in the coming political season, as Ms. May's strategic decision here will have a significant influence over her future and that of her party, and may also have some influence on decisions taken by other parties in the ridings she declined to run in.
Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Greens
posted by The Pundits' Guide at
7:44 AM
5 Comments:
May to run in Saanich–-Gulf Islands?? Say-WHAT?
Only a few months ago May said “I’m never running anywhere but Central Nova. This is where I live. This is where I’ll always run.”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fGQFrhfY5-8&feature=channel
No wonder even grassroots Greens are tired of her.
Hi Oppo, and thanks for the comment. That video has certainly been around for awhile (here is the clickable version of the link for anyone who hasn't seen it yet).
However, in fairness, I believe Ms. May is now responding to entreaties from her party's membership to consider running elsewhere, in spite of what she may have said during the campaign. I certainly remember virtually every party leader promising to run balanced budgets during the election as well; it can be hard to pivot a position in that pressure-cooker, to be sure.
The question for me is not so much whether a politician ever does, or ever should, change her or his mind. It's whether the resulting decision was a good one.
May is in a tricky situation now (perhaps in part due to her previous decision not to stay in London North Centre, ON but move on to Central Nova, NS). Her best way to get into the Commons might be through a by-election, but the current crop of by-election seats might not make the most winnable seats for her during a general election either.
It's hard to know in politics when it's time to apply the learning you acquired from past experience, and when you're making the mistake of trying to fight the last election. In this case, May has reason to believe the Liberals will pull the plug in the fall and that no other opposition party will come to an agreement with Mr. Harper. And perhaps she knows better than we do, if she was speaking with Mr. Apps over the summer.
However, if the fall general election window comes and goes, and she turns out to have missed a chance to run in a by-election, then she'll be facing her next leadership contest without having won a seat, something that would otherwise have innoculated her against the leadership challenge it is widely rumoured she'll face next February.
Unlikely that the Libs will give her a free pass this time. I highly doubt she can win that riding against 3 major party candidates when Lunn won it last time with no NDP candidate. If the Libs didn't oppose her AND the NDP dropped out I would give her a 50-50 shot.
Just for the record I have lived on one of the Gulf Islands.
The Liberals have a contested nomination, and at least one of the candidates would contend with May and the NDP for the environmental vote.
Although the Liberals are now no more likely to give May a pass anywhere, the NDP has never given anyone a pass.
May in saanich ?
somehow wonder who her advisors are as she has chosen to run against another personally popular cabinent minister in a riding she does not even live in . it all seems like another doomed central nova run but this time on the west coast .
i also read some articles from ontario and it appeared she was seriously considering grey bruce owen sound as well but maybe john tory's experience in nearby haliburton kawartha lakes riding at provincial level scared her off on that one . as locals there don't always go for outsiders that often and sometimes all out reject them .
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