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Thursday, July 9, 2009

Nomination News: From Right Across the Spectrum

While we're waiting for the result of tonight's contested Conservative nomination in Winnipeg South Centre, NB, let's catch up on the rest of the news, from west to east this time:
  • Nanaimo – Cowichan, BC - Two Liberals, one from Duncan and one from Ladysmith, are said to be interested in their party's nomination after the riding association AGM at the end of June, reports the Ladysmith Chronicle. No date has been set for a nomination meeting as yet. This Vancouver Island riding, once held by Tommy Douglas as federal NDP Leader in the early 1970s, is currently represented by three-term NDP M.P. Jean Crowder, who won it in 2004 after two-term Canadian Alliance M.P. Reed Elley stepped down to take care of some health concerns. Elley sat out the the next election, but returned as Conservative candidate in 2008, coming within 7.5% of Crowder, in spite of outspending her (91% of the spending limit to 81%). Liberals fell to 7.5% and 4th place behind the Green Party here in 2008, but are hoping to improve in the forthcoming election.
  • York – Simcoe, ON - Christian Heritage Party candidate Vicki Gunn was nominated by her riding association's annual general meeting this past April 27, and will be running in her fourth election. The riding is currently represented by two-term Conservative M.P. Peter Van Loan. Thanks to a reader for taking the time to pass along this information.
  • Lanark – Frontenac – Lennox and Addington, ON - Dave Remington is now officially nominated as the Liberal candidate in this riding between Ottawa and Kingston, after Tuesday night's meeting. Remington joins long-time Conservative M.P. Scott Reid who was automatically renominated as the incumbent last May.
  • Stormont – Dundas – South Glengarry, ON - Cornwall city councillor and SDG Legal Clinic staff member Bernadette Clement is considering a run for the Liberal nomination in this eastern Ontario riding located along the St. Lawrence Seaway, reports the Cornwall Standard Freeholder. A nomination meeting is expected to take place in early September, and Clement says that she will make a final decision by the middle of this month. If she does and is successful, she will be facing three-term Conservative M.P. Guy Lauzon, who is having a busy summer with the Cornwall border crossing issue. Liberals last won the seat under party whip Bob Kilger in 2000, who lost to Lauzon in 2004.
  • Pontiac, QC - As we earlier reported here, former Liberal M.P. Robert Bertrand does indeed seem interested in making a run for the Liberal nomination in his old riding, according to 96,1 Renfrew radio. Already running are 2008 candidate Cindy Duncan McMillan and former Liberal Party national director Greg Fergus. The riding is currently represented by two-term Conservative M.P. Lawrence Cannon.
  • Outremont, QC - National Newswatch carried a clipping from the Montréal Suburban this morning, detailing two candidates said to be actively organizating for the Liberal nomination in the only NDP-held riding in Québec, and one other star candidate being wooed. We earlier reported that former La Presse columnist and Le Soleil editor Alain Dubuc was being courted by Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff to run here, and the Suburban is reporting this name as well. Organizing for the nomination in the meantime is 2008 candidate (and well-known Québec actor) Sébastian Dhavernas, and former Liberal M.P. Martin Cauchon may also be considering a run once again as well. Many Liberals consider winning this seat back to be "the number 1 target" in Québec, particularly as Dhavernas came within 2,300 votes of NDP M.P. Thomas Mulcair in spite of running a less than fully funded campaign (just 59% of the spending limit vs. 88% by Mulcair).
  • Jeanne-Le Ber, QC - A blog commenter is reporting that the Liberal nomination in this riding may be settled by an appointment to former Bell executive Marc Bruneau. We reported Bruneau's interest in running here last month. The riding is currently held by two-term Bloc Québécois M.P. Thierry St-Cyr, but was also targetted by the NDP in 2008, and wound up meeting the criteria for both a close two-way and four-way race.
  • Brome – Missisquoi, QC -It sounds a bit bold for a party that won just 9% of the vote in the last election, but NDP Leader Jack Layton told La Voix de l'Est and the Sherbrooke Record that his party would be targetting this riding in the next election, with their 2008 candidate Christelle Bogosta set to run again, and because of the party's strong riding association. Certainly area Liberals are taking serious aim at the riding after nominating former Liberal M.P. Denis Paradis the other week. The riding is currently represented by Bloc Québécois M.P. Christian Ouellet, who at age 75 is currently the oldest Member of the House of Commons, but intended last we read to be renominated this fall for another run. (h/t the Liberal Scarf blog, who appears to be following more than just Liberal nominations now)
  • Compton – Stanstead, QC - The Liberal nomination meeting has been called next door for July 23rd 22nd in this Eastern Townships riding, and 2008 candidate William Hogg (as reported here earlier) seems set to give it another try. The riding is currently held by three-term Bloc Québécois M.P. France Bonsant, but Hogg was able to gain a second-place finish after the Conservatives dropped about 5 points in support from 2006, much of it apparently to the NDP. Hogg's 2008 campaign spent considerably less than previous Liberal outings in this riding, at 21% of the limit vs. 71-74% in 2004-06 and certainly less than the 50-55% typically spent by the Bloc in this riding. Thanks to a reader for sending in the link.
  • Montmorency – Charlevoix – Haute-Côte-Nord, QC - Bloc Whip Michel Guimond, who is one of the 6 original Bloc Québécois M.P.s sent to Ottawa in 1993, is ready for his 7th federal run whenever the next election is held, he tells Le Soleil. Guimond is calling Bloc M.P.s back to work in mid-August, and says the party has another 30 nomination meetings planned for early September before the Commons resumes sitting (currently scheduled for Monday, September 14).
In other news, there is some further speculation about possible Liberal dream candidates at the Liberal Scarf blog.

Also, a reader writes to advise that the Green Party's internal candidate recruitment process is fairly well advanced, with 76 of 101 candidate applications being nominated, acclaimed or appointed thus far, and many other candidates identified who have yet to complete the required paperwork. Many provincial BC candidates are set to run federally, all but 5 holes are slotted in the prairies, 2/3rds of Ontario ridings have nominated or identified candidates, and Québec candidate interviews are scheduled to be conducted soon. Of course, without candidate names attached to specific ridings with nomination dates, I can't enter then into the database, and therefore they are not counted in the tables on the site's main page.

Also, New Westminster – Coquitlam, BC Conservative Party members will have two chances to meet their 4 prospective nomination candidates next week, one on Monday in New Westminster and the other on Wednesday in Coquitlam (full details available here). The contested nomination meeting will be taking place on Saturday, July 25. Thanks to a reader for sending along this information.

Well, rats, I was hoping news would have arrived by now as to the winner of the contested Conservative nomination in Winnipeg. Since it hasn't, I'll have to get back to you on that tomorrow.

Meantime, if you have nomination or prospective candidate information to share with Guide readers, drop me a line with whatever you've got. Then you can follow the Pundits' Guide on Twitter for all the latest.

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5 Comments:

Blogger Edmund said...

Brome – Missisquoi? Bold, indeed. If the NDP is venturing into southern Quebec with expectations of taking a seat (while vaulting over 3 other parties in front of them), they had better make sure Mulcair and his team have *everything* they need to win first. He's going to come under a lot of Liberal pressure next time around, and a loss there would be embarrassing even if the NDP, by some miracle, carried Brome – Missisquoi.

July 10, 2009 9:04 AM  
Blogger The Pundits' Guide said...

Well, Edmund, I'm currently assembling the 1988 and 1993 election results to enter into the Pundits' Guide, and happened to come across the NDP's best previous result in that riding ... 13.1% with Paul "The Butcher" Vachon (wrestler and brother of Maurice "Mad Dog" Vachon) in 1988.

Vachon went on to run for the party twice more, once in the 1993 General Election in Hochelaga-Maissonneuve, and again in the 1995 Brome-Missisquoi by-election that elected Denis Paradis for the first time.

Fun facts from the vault!

July 10, 2009 9:46 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

It appears the nomination will be held in early August for the Pontiac. This will be a huge disadvantage for Ms. Duncan McMillan and I doubt Mr. Bertrand will be interested in running at this point.

July 12, 2009 3:08 PM  
Blogger Edmund said...

Thanks, PG. I stand in awe of your vast trove of information.

Brome-Missisquoi is an interesting long-term target for the NDP, wrestler or no wrestler. If I was with the NDP, however, my first order of business would be Gatineau (after Outremont). Françoise Boivin ran Richard Nadeau very hard last time, and needs only a little more support to oust him. Winning with only 29.2% voting for him (the lowest % of a winning candidate in Canada, IIRC) must have been a distinctly hairy experience.

July 14, 2009 4:58 AM  
Blogger The Pundits' Guide said...

The deleted comment appeared to be spam. Please do not follow the commenter's link.

July 17, 2009 7:26 PM  

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