Nomination News Catchup
Let's start with candidates who were nominated in the past few days and some meetings that were recently scheduled, and then follow up with some some earlier nominations we may have missed, and some new candidate announcements.
- Calgary West, AB - Lawyer and 2008 candidate Jennifer Pollock won her party's nomination in Monday night's contest. Reader reports say the meeting was well-attended with 88 people voting, and that second-place finisher Ernie Corbett may yet surface as a Liberal candidate in a neighbouring riding. The riding is currently represented by long-time Conservative M.P. Rob Anders.
- Haldimand – Norfolk, ON - Former Liberal M.P. Bob Speller was renominated by acclamation as well Monday night in this southwestern Ontario riding, currently held by Conservative M.P. Diane Finley. Speller was first elected in 1988 and this will be his third contest against Finley. He sat out the 2008 election, which saw his Liberal replacement largely hold their vote share but Finley's vote drop 8 percentage points in favour of well-performing independent candidate Gary McHale who ran to raise the issue of the Caledonia land dispute between area residents and first nations. Last I read McHale was considering a second run, which could have some interesting and unpredictable effects on the riding's outcome. Speller is the 8th former Liberal M.P. to be nominated as a candidate for the current election.
- Compton – Stanstead, QC - As he was the only declared candidate, I'm assuming that 2008 Liberal candidate William Hogg was successfully renominated by acclamation at last night's meeting in this Eastern Townships riding in Québec, currently held by three-term Bloc Québécois M.P. France Bonsant.
- Mon 27 Jul - Longueuil – Pierre-Boucher, QC
- Tue 28 Jul - Joliette, QC
- Wed 12 Aug - Argenteuil – Papineau – Mirabel, QC
- Wed 19 Aug - Jonquière – Alma, QC
- Thu 27 Aug - Lac-Saint-Louis, QC
- Thu 3 Sep - Gatineau, QC
- Sun 13 Sep - Pontiac, QC
- Eglinton – Lawrence, ON - This was the Conservatives' best riding in north Toronto in the last election, and 2008 candidate Joe Oliver has either been renominated already or looks to be keen to get the nomination at the very least. According to his recent tweets, he has been attending many community events, including some with Peter Kent and Jason Kenney, certainly looks to be keeping a candidate's schedule, and is saying on Twitter that Conservatives need MPs from Toronto in their three closest seats of last time. The riding is currently held by long-time Liberal M.P. Joe Volpe, however Oliver obtained 39.3% of the vote last time, coming within 4.7% of Volpe's vote share, and significantly outspending Volpe (nearly 100% of the spending limit vs. Volpe's 58%) in the process. It is unclear whether this former President of the Investment Dealers Association has been formally renominated just yet, but if any reader could clarify, it would be appreciated.
- Don Valley West, ON - One of the events Oliver was attending was a barbecue being organized by the 2008 Conservative in this neighbouring riding, the party's 2nd best riding in north Toronto last time out, John Carmichael. Again, a source tells me that Carmichael has been renominated, but I can't find any documentary evidence of that as yet, unless you count the barbecue with Peter Kent. This former chair of the Canadian Automobile Dealers' Association obtained 38.8% of the vote running against newly-elected Liberal by-election M.P. Rob Oliphant in 2008, and outspent him by a good margin as well (97% of the limit to Oliphant's 70%).
- Vancouver South, BC - A third Conservative candidate said to have been renominated from last time is Wai Young, who came within 20 votes (after a long and tortuous recount process) of defeating Liberal M.P. Ujjal Dosanjh in the 2nd closest race of the last election, having slightly outspent him as well (94% of the limit vs. 87%) Young had certainly indicated to Public Eye Online in May that she intended to run again somewhere, either federally or provincially, but again I can find no documentary evidence that she has actually been formally renominated here, so if anyone out there has further details I'd love to hear them.
- Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, NS - As expected, previous Liberal candidate Tracy Parsons has announced her intention to seek the Liberal nomination in this vacant Nova Scotia seat, which means a contest is on between Parsons and farmer Jim Burrows. This is the seat vacated by Independent M.P. Bill Casey in order to take a job representing the provincial government in Ottawa.
- Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, QC - Word from Radio-Canada about one of the vacant ridings, that the Mayor of La Pocatière, Bernard Généreux, is considering running for the Conservatives in any upcoming election, given that he is not planning to run for reelection municipally. Former Bloc Québécois M.P. Paul Crête was elected here in 2008, but stepped down to make an unsuccessful provincial bid in Rivière-du-Loup provincially for the Bloc's sister party, the Parti Québécois, in the spring.
- Pontiac, QC - As mentioned above, the contested Liberal nomination meeting has now been scheduled for Sunday, September 13, and a commenter here runs down the latest handicapping of the race from an insider's perspective here. Running are former Liberal Party national director Greg Fergus, former Liberal M.P. Robert Bertrand, and former 2008 Liberal candidate Cindy Duncan McMillan. The riding is currently held by two-term Conservative M.P. Lawrence Cannon, and is rated as meeting the criteria for a close three-way and four-way race, although Cannon also increased his margin from 5.0% to 8.5% between 2006 and 2008. I can't comment on the spending, as Ms. Duncan McMillan's return is not yet posted on the Elections Canada website.
- Ottawa Centre, ON - A reader writes to pass along that Janet Yale now seems fairly certain to contest the Liberal nomination here, against Scott Bradley who is all but in and has a website set up here. Yale, you'll recall, was said to be considering a run against former M.P. David Pratt in neighbouring Ottawa West – Nepean, ON but publicly removed her name from consideration. The riding is currently represented by two-term NDP M.P. Paul Dewar.
- Toronto Centre, ON - The NDP may have a nomination contest shaping up in this riding, as 2008 Willowdale candidate and a former director of the Canadian Actors' Equity, Susan Wallace, has announced a bid for the nomination there. My sources say that two-time former NDP candidate, and the recently-elected Grand Marshall of the Toronto Pride Parade, muslim lawyer El-Farouk Khaki, is also hoping to run again. [UPDATE: Per his comment below, Mr. Khaki is in fact not planning a run again this time.] No date for the meeting has been set as yet. This is the riding won by Liberal leadership candidate and former NDP MP and Premier, Bob Rae in the March 2008 by-elections. After seeing higher spending levels during the by-election, the general election was a more muted affair, with Rae spending just 54% of the limit but his rivals spending barely half of that. Already nominated in this riding are new Conservative candidate Kevin Moore (not Keith, thanks to a reader for the correction), and former Green Party candidate Ellen Michelson.
- Parry Sound – Muskoka, ON - Computer consultant Doug Banwell has announced he will be running for the Liberal nomination in this central Ontario riding, currently held by two-term Conservative M.P. Tony Clement, reports ParrySound.com. No date has been set for the nomination meeting as yet, although the riding association has asked for one to be set, and expects it for late August. After earning the ranking of the closest riding of the 2006 election when Clement won by just 28 votes, he went on to earn over 50% of the vote here last time.
Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Conservatives, Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, Liberals, Montmagny – L'Islet – Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, NDP



7 Comments:
open conservative nominations in calgary typically attractive thousands of voters , the one last year in calgary northeast attracted thousands so the liberal one in calgary west with 88 voters is not good turn out at all , thats a very blue riding and even with rob anders troubles isn't going to be going anywhere .
True, Anon, but every movement has to start somewhere. I bet the rooms weren't filled to bursting in some of the Québec Conservative nominations that transpired prior to 2006 either, so while we certainly have our preconceptions based on past results, they don't always predict the big upsets of the future.
Thanks for taking the time to read and comment.
Hey,
Just a quick note to inform you that I am not seeking the NDP nomination in Toronto Centre.
I have decided instead to focus my time and energy on advocacy and activism on human rights issues, effecting the poor, refugees, lgbt people, Muslims and other marginalized groups.
Thanks for letting us know, Mr. Khaki. I'll update the post accordingly.
Easier said than done.
well i agree that some conservative nomination in quebec likely weren't well attended but we must remember quebec and some of its ridings are generally seen as swing ridings that move around alot like louis hebert as an example has been won by the liberals , conservatives and bloc all just since 2000 . alberta is not that much of a swing province and calgary as an example has only elected mp's from the right of centre for something like the last 40 years i believe ( edmonton is the only place in alberta to elected non-conservatives as a few ndp candidates and liberals have got elected there in the more urban ridings ) . unless you'd count joe clark as breaking that trend in 2000 . so the odds of calgary west going liberals next election are likely something like 1000 - 1 .
Hi again Anon 6:23 am,
Well, I certainly take your point. At present, I am still wading through the manual preparation of election results data from 1988 to 1993, and one thing it has reinforced for me is a healthy scepticism of predicting future outcomes based on past results. I am seeing the names of current M.P.s who placed 4th in either 1988 or 1993, before any of the series of upheavals took place in the 20 intervening years. When I started watching politics, it was inconceivable that the Liberals wouldn't take most of the 75 seats in Québec, for example. And we all know how things have changed there (twice) since.
So, I do take your point. But I like to report everything here, because you never know when you're collecting data about the next unforseen trend.
Again, thanks for your comments.
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