More Lib-Green Nomination News
Boy, no sooner do I hit publish when a few more items surface to report on. Here are the latest:
Do you have information about nominations or potential candidates? If so, you can always tell Tim Powers or Susan Delacourt, but I hope you'll consider telling us too, by dropping me a line here, and then following all the news on Twitter.
- Saint John, NB - Former two-term Liberal M.P. Paul Zed, who has been serving as interim chief of staff to Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff, is apparently stepping down in favour of a permanent replacement in the fall, in order to return home and prepare another run for office, reports the Toronto Star's Susan Delacourt in her blog. She doesn't mention which riding, but Saint John is where Zed has run six times before, finally winning after former PC M.P. Elsie Wayne's retirement, and where he lost in 2008 to first-time Conservative M.P. Rodney Weston after serving two terms. Saint John looks like a true swing riding, as it has been settled by close margins two different ways over the last two elections, but has obviously not always swung to the government side either, given that Mrs. Wayne was able to get elected as one of only 2 Progressive Conservative M.P.s in 1993. Zed was outspent by his two Conservative challengers in each of the last two outings, however.
- Gatineau, QC - We earlier reported that former Liberal National Director Steve McKinnon was rumoured to be running for the nomination in this western Québec, and now word comes through the Globe and Mail's house Conservative blogger and fellow pundit Tim Powers that indeed McKinnon is making the leap. The riding is currently held by two-term Bloc Québécois M.P. Richard Nadeau, and 2008 NDP candidate and former Liberal M.P. for the riding Françoise Boivin has also let it be known she will run again. The closeness of this riding, both as a two-way, three-way and the #1 closest four-way race of the last election has been extensively documented here before, but it figures to be at or near the top of most political watchers lists next time around.
- Winnipeg Centre, MB - A reader wrote to pass along the news that Jacqueline Romanow, former acting director of the Centre for Aboriginal Governance at the University of Winnipeg, and still on the faculty there, was recently acclaimed as the Green Party's candidate in this core urban Winnipeg seat. Romanow will also join the Leader Elizabeth May's shadow cabinet, responsible for International Trade. We were talking about Edmonton East, AB being a low turnout riding the other day, but Winnipeg Centre is actually a bit worse in that department, coming in at 43.2% in 2008, the 8th lowest turnout of the last election, but always consistently below 50% over the past number of elections. Still five-term NDP M.P. Pat Martin has increased his vote share over that time from 41% to 49%, and the only recent change in standings in this riding saw the Conservatives move into 2nd place ahead of the Liberals, with the Green vote also increasing enough last time (up to 11%) to earn a rebate of candidate expenses, not that they spent much on the last campaign.
Do you have information about nominations or potential candidates? If so, you can always tell Tim Powers or Susan Delacourt, but I hope you'll consider telling us too, by dropping me a line here, and then following all the news on Twitter.
Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Aboriginal Candidates, Greens, Liberals
posted by The Pundits' Guide at
1:01 PM
6 Comments:
Actually, Paul Zed has only run in the riding of Saint John *four* times before. Before that, he ran in Fundy-Royal twice (winning 1993; losing 1997). NB: Saint John annexed Rothesay from Fundy-Royal in the latest redistribution.
Thanks for the correction, adma. You're right, I did gloss that over. Mr. Zed's candidate index page here does indeed show the second of the 2 tries in the old riding of Fundy – Royal, NB, and as soon as I can get the older data ready for inclusion here, we'll see his earlier run as well.
Thanks for taking the time to highlight this point with a comment.
I'll say!
On turnout in Winnipeg Centre, I'll just note that we have one poll with 15% turnout. Does anyone know if this competes for national record?
What a sad state of affairs to have such low participation in our democracy.
Mike, I'm sure you're very familiar with the area, as am I (having worked in the area myself several times in years gone by), and recognize that it's probably demographic factors at play here.
Winnipeg Centre ranks first in the country for the percentage of the population defined as low income, along with having the lowest median income and lowest median after tax income for households. It is hardly surprising that political or civic engagement is not a higher priority in some of these polls.
Moreover, the riding also ranked #2 in the country in 2006 for the percentage of people who had moved within the municipality the previous year, and high mobility is also probably strongly associated with low turnout (not to mention crappy voter registration, another likely intervening explanatory variable).
I haven't analyzed the poll-by-poll data yet , but 15% might be close to the record.
Thank you for taking the time to read and comment.
Tastes differ.
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