Hill Times Articles
This morning’s Hill Times has a lengthy piece by Harris MacLeod on the forthcoming election and ridings to watch at this early stage, including a list compiled in part by yours truly.
I appreciate the publicity and opportunity to provide information to the Hill Times, but just wanted to clarify that the list in the paper *includes* ridings provided by me, and that there was some editorializing going on by them in some of the list’s comments as well. Specifically:
- While I might agree that Brampton – Springdale, ON should be on the list because the Conservatives nominated there very early, I did not write the comments about it or its incumbent M.P. (and in general I do not even like “xx-gate” terms).
- Moreover, Oakville, ON is a riding to watch, but I would have described it as a 1993 Liberal pickup of a previously Conservative seat at a time when the conservative parties split, rather than a “long-time” Liberal riding. Former Liberal M.P. Bonnie Brown won the seat in 1993, but it was previously held for 4 terms by Conservative M.P. Otto Jelinek. On the other hand, this is just the kind of seat whose fate will be interesting to watch going forward.
The riding list only appears in the printed edition, but as before I will be asking for permission to reprint it here, along with a table I prepared for last week’s story on the battle in Québec, called “Québec by the Numbers (2008 General Election)”.
Sorry to be so picky, but I really try to take care about the kinds of remarks I make, in order to keep this site a neutral place that’s useful for everyone. Otherwise, keep up the great work, Hill Times, and from someone who read you from the beginning: Happy 20th Anniversary this October!
Tags: Hill Times, Media Coverage
Sorry they editorialised your table PG. I thought the choices for the table were quite good, though. Definitely better than the usual media fare (like the "swing ridings" sample CTV used for their polls in the last election). You've definitely brought some much needed rigour to the "ridings to watch" game. Also, thanks to the poster that put the link to MapWindow. I think many PG readers will find that MapWindow is quite easy to manipulate even if you are a GIS newbie, and better yet, it is free!
the hill times has some good articles , this one was also very good . but i think though its still a little early to know for sure what ridings will become targets for each party , obvivously some of the close one or seats each has historically held will be targets , but other new targets could emerge before the next election such as seats where an incumbent is retiring ( the conservatives have been one who have made gains that way , seats like egmont or nunavut wouldn't of been targeted or won by the conservatives if not for the retirement of incumbent mp's ) or seats near the by-election ridings if one party did better than expected in that area could become targets .
Hi o.NDP,
I haven't followed up on the MapWindow link yet, but will take your recommendation and do so shortly. I'm glad you liked the list of ridings, and didn't disagree with the ones the HT included into it, but would just never have written about "nanny-gate troubles", as that's way outside my mandate of keeping things nice and data-focussed here.
Welcome back, Anon. I would have to respectfully disagree with you that it's too early for parties to be targetting seats, as that's exactly what's going on now in choices of early candidates and leaders' tour events for the summer. However if you're saying it's too early to *finalize* the list of targets, on the other hand, we would be much more in agreement, as very evidently other factors can and will surface.
I also count 46 MPs out of 308 who were first elected in or before the 1993 general election. Three of them have since stepped down to pursue other, with a fourth expected to do so mid-September. I'm guessing that before the next election call, a few more of those seats will open up.
Thanks to you both for your comments.
i also expect a few more of the older mp's to retire or move on before the next election , of course that would depend on when it is but lets say parliament lasts until early winter or late fall than its likely some would not run in the next election . the longer it goes the more likely some of the older mp's will retire .
was more thinking what you said on the targeted seats that some be known but others maybe not as sure yet as some factors still unknown . the mistake some parties make is assuming the next election will be the same as the last one and the seats close last time still be close this time , like i known my riding was super close in 06 yet a landslide for the incumbent in 08 even though it was heavily targeted but the party who closely lost in 06 . so close ridings can sometimes only be close once than more more towards one party once the mp becomes more established .
Hello again Anon 6:35 am,
Right, well I think we are probably on the same page then. If you realized that the title of the table I originally gave the Hill Times was "Ridings showing early indications of being races", then you'd see where our assumptions probably initially veered in different directions.
And your point about how parties are at risk of always fighting the last election is a good one. I think the media is equally at risk of always *covering* the last election too, which is in part why I started this website, to hopefully show the longer-term patterns, or make it easier to find the numeric evidence to counteract certain assumptions. And I'm always grateful when a news organization such as the Hill Times is prepared to devote the space to considering such trends.
Thanks as always for taking the time to add your thoughts to the discussion.