Pundits' Guide: UPDATED: Next Moves in Current Election Scare

A few developments should be recorded and a few new dates can now be confirmed in this spring's annual pre-summer adjournment election war dance, which we've been documenting here lately:

UPDATE: The Main Estimates vote will be held on the last opposition day (currently Friday), not on Thursday as an earlier media report indicated. Please see this later blogpost for further details.

This past Thursday, June 11, the Prime Minister released the second progress report on the government's economic stimulus package which was mandated by his earlier agreement with the Liberal Party that allowed the federal budget to pass in February.
Very quickly thereafter, NDP Deputy Leader Tom Mulcair told CBC Newsworld that "There's nothing in this report to allow us to support the government," adding that "We don't trust them. The NDP's not going to be voting for these guys anytime soon."
And a little later in Question Period, Bloc Québécois leader Gilles Duceppe told the House of Commons that "the Conservatives' economic action plan is a total flop. I am sure that their good news is not so good for the unemployed, whose numbers increase daily. The deficit is growing every day as well. We have no choice but to refuse to vote funding for this inadequate plan" [translated by Hansard].
Then, after finishing an event in Montréal, Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff told reporters that "I'm going to look at the report tonight if I get a minute and tomorrow, and then we'll make a decision. And we're not going to keep people hanging around. We'll make a decision and it will be clear: up or down".
Yesterday, Elizabeth Thompson of the Sun media chain reported that Ignatieff would in fact be taking the weekend to consult and decide what to do.
And today, we just learn courtesy of David Akin's twitter feed (@davidakin) that Michael Ignatieff has called a news conference for Monday, June 15 at 11:00 a.m. in the National Press Theatre to announce his decision.
Monday, June 15 is also the Bloc Québécois' last opposition day motion of the sitting, and they will be debating a motion which asks the Government to reject a national securities regulator.
On Tuesday, June 16, the House will be taking the deferred recorded vote on the NDP's opposition day motion from last Thursday proposing changes to the Canada Pension Plan (scheduled for just before the end of government business that day). This vote is not a confidence matter.
On Thursday, June 18 the vote on the Main Estimates will be held (these are the departmental line-by-line expenditure plans associated with the federal budget), reports the CTV's Bob Fife. As a budgetary matter, this vote is by definition a matter of confidence in the government. The voting order on the motion will be Cons/govt-Lib-BQ-NDP-Independent. [UPDATE: This is not correct, however. The Main Estimates vote always occurs on the last allotted day of the Supply Period. See later blogpost for details.]
And on Friday, June 19, if the Main Estimates pass on Thursday, the Liberals will present one of the 15+ opposition day motions currently sitting on the Order Paper under their caucus members' names, or else another motion ... which they must give notice of no later than Wednesday June 17. This motion could either be a confidence motion or not, at their discretion. The voting order on this motion will be Lib/movers-Cons/govt-BQ-NDP-Independent.
If that vote is designated a confidence vote and passes, then the Prime Minister would have to pay a visit to the Governor-General and ask her to dissolve Parliament, with the earliest election date being Monday, July 27.
If not, the Commons is expected to adjourn after the vote until Monday, September 21, with a set of 3 by-elections likely for Tuesday, September 8 (after Labour Day) or Monday, September 14.