Estimates of Measures of Party Election Readiness
Further to my blogpost of the other week, "Measures of Election Readiness", John Ivison of the National Post asked me to crunch some numbers for him, some of which appear in his latest column.
Here is the full set of calculations:
Central party finance --
Please see here for my overview of the party balance sheets from 2000-2007, along with links to each original return at EC: http://www.punditsguide.ca/prty_balsheets.php. The new ones aren't due out until the end of June.
Party net worth as at the end of 2007:
Lib - $2,826,315
NDP - $4,732,990
Grn - $ 275,321
BQ - $ 478,885
Cons - $4,878,406
Total raised: Total raised 2008 + raised Q1-2009 + 6 quarterly subsidies rcvd*
Lib - $ 5,900,511.89 + $1,831,843.33 + $12,615,205 = $20,347,560.22
NDP - $ 5,466,434.84 + $ 595,611.16 + $ 7,495,557 = $13,557,603.00
Grn - $ 1,631,293.79 + $ 211,268.53 + $ 2,064,999 = $ 3,907,561.32
BQ - $ 713,415.22 + $ 122,842.03 + $ 4,432,913 = $ 5,269,170.25
Cons - $21,190,928.22 + $4,361,540.04 + $15,549,922 = $41,102,390.26
* - 3 Jan 2008 to 1 Apr 2009; next one due on July 1, 2009
Spent: Net spent 2008 campaign (spent less 50% rebate) + est. 2008 natl spending (based on 2007 spending):
Lib - $7,265,926.5 + $14,459,099 = $21,725,025.5
NDP - $8,406,945 + $ 7,652,812 = $16,059,757
Grn - $1,397,900 + $ 2,085,198 = $ 3,483,098
BQ - $2,439,802 + $ 1,322,315 = $ 3,762,117
Cons - $9,709,290 + $27,710,664 = $37,419,954
Estimated net worth = (2007 Net worth + Total raised - Spent)
Lib - $1,448,849.72
NDP - $2,230,836.00
Grn - $ 699,784.32
BQ - $1,985,938.25
Cons - $8,560,842.26
Riding Level Finance --
Average Riding Association Net Worth by Party, end of 2008, partial data
Lib - $8,615.46 (105 EDAs reporting so far)
NDP - $2,859.11 (135 EDAs reporting so far)
Grn - $1,212.19 (106 EDAs reporting so far)
BQ - $8,040.10 (36 EDAs reporting so far)
Cons - $21,532.02 (142 EDAs reporting so far)
Candidate Finance --
Estimated number of rebates issued out of candidate returns filed, 2008
Lib - 4/289 filed (307 candidates)
NDP - 47/299 filed (308 candidates)
Grn - 45/284 filed (303 candidates)
BQ - 23/75 filed (75 candidates)
Cons - 84/301 filed (307 candidates)
Don't forget that candidates apparently eligible for a rebate get 30% of their estimated rebate paid to them right away, then after they file their papers and the papers are reviewed, then they get the other 70%. See s.464 of the Act (here: http://tinyurl.com/o7hvbo).
Here is the full set of calculations:
Central party finance --
Please see here for my overview of the party balance sheets from 2000-2007, along with links to each original return at EC: http://www.punditsguide.ca/prty_balsheets.php. The new ones aren't due out until the end of June.
Party net worth as at the end of 2007:
Lib - $2,826,315
NDP - $4,732,990
Grn - $ 275,321
BQ - $ 478,885
Cons - $4,878,406
Total raised: Total raised 2008 + raised Q1-2009 + 6 quarterly subsidies rcvd*
Lib - $ 5,900,511.89 + $1,831,843.33 + $12,615,205 = $20,347,560.22
NDP - $ 5,466,434.84 + $ 595,611.16 + $ 7,495,557 = $13,557,603.00
Grn - $ 1,631,293.79 + $ 211,268.53 + $ 2,064,999 = $ 3,907,561.32
BQ - $ 713,415.22 + $ 122,842.03 + $ 4,432,913 = $ 5,269,170.25
Cons - $21,190,928.22 + $4,361,540.04 + $15,549,922 = $41,102,390.26
* - 3 Jan 2008 to 1 Apr 2009; next one due on July 1, 2009
Spent: Net spent 2008 campaign (spent less 50% rebate) + est. 2008 natl spending (based on 2007 spending):
Lib - $7,265,926.5 + $14,459,099 = $21,725,025.5
NDP - $8,406,945 + $ 7,652,812 = $16,059,757
Grn - $1,397,900 + $ 2,085,198 = $ 3,483,098
BQ - $2,439,802 + $ 1,322,315 = $ 3,762,117
Cons - $9,709,290 + $27,710,664 = $37,419,954
Estimated net worth = (2007 Net worth + Total raised - Spent)
Lib - $1,448,849.72
NDP - $2,230,836.00
Grn - $ 699,784.32
BQ - $1,985,938.25
Cons - $8,560,842.26
Riding Level Finance --
Average Riding Association Net Worth by Party, end of 2008, partial data
Lib - $8,615.46 (105 EDAs reporting so far)
NDP - $2,859.11 (135 EDAs reporting so far)
Grn - $1,212.19 (106 EDAs reporting so far)
BQ - $8,040.10 (36 EDAs reporting so far)
Cons - $21,532.02 (142 EDAs reporting so far)
Candidate Finance --
Estimated number of rebates issued out of candidate returns filed, 2008
Lib - 4/289 filed (307 candidates)
NDP - 47/299 filed (308 candidates)
Grn - 45/284 filed (303 candidates)
BQ - 23/75 filed (75 candidates)
Cons - 84/301 filed (307 candidates)
Don't forget that candidates apparently eligible for a rebate get 30% of their estimated rebate paid to them right away, then after they file their papers and the papers are reviewed, then they get the other 70%. See s.464 of the Act (here: http://tinyurl.com/o7hvbo).
Labels: Election Readiness, Party Finance
posted by The Pundits' Guide at
4:57 PM
1 Comments:
I think that for accuracy of current net worth you should have included in the calculations one less quarter of subsidy revenue, and one more quarter of estimated expenses [based on 2007 actual].
You used a 5 quarter time frame for fundraising revenues. [2008 + 2009 Q1]
The same should be done for expenses.
You counted the 6 quarters of subsidies apparently received during the same time period. But only the 5 should be counted. That isn't just an accounting 'technical' point. Aggregated over the long term that really is all parties get and have available during a given time period. [Otherwise you show a distorted current uptick.]
If you make those changes in the calculation, both the NDP and Liberals have even more 'negative net worth'.
The $4million debt that would show for the NDP is what they have recently said they still owe. [And have the track record of proven capability to rapidly pay down.] That's a pretty good affirmation of the credibility of the calculation method you have used here.
The same corrected numbers would show an estimated debt for the Liberals of over $3million.
Which compares to their claim that they have paid off ALL their debt.
And note that when they did that I said here that they at best have only paid of their NEW campaign debt... and that their previously existing debt would be $2-3million, if not more.
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