Nomination News: Edmonton East
Two items of news to report from this western riding:
Interestingly, Martin's campaign only spent 29.5% of the expense limit in 2008 (data not entered here yet, but available at Elections Canada UPDATE: it's entered now), indicating that the NDP likely concentrated on Edmonton – Strathcona more heavily this time. Back when Martin's seat was the party's Alberta priority in 1997 (he ran in the old riding of Edmonton North, part of which was redistributed into Edmonton East), his campaign spent nearly 100% of the limit.
It will be interesting to see whether the prospect of competition in this urban Edmonton seat will play any role in Conservative party members' decision as to whether to hold a contested nomination meeting.
- Edmonton East, AB - Conservative riding association vice-president Matt Altheim stepped down from his position late last week in order to launch a nomination campaign, should his riding's membership vote to hold a candidate selection meeting in the forthcoming mail-in ballot. His campaign kicks off this coming Saturday, according to his website, which unlike a few weeks ago now explicitly acknowledges this campaign as its purpose. Also, perhaps in preparation for this challenge, Altheim appears to have taken down his former blog "Canadian Rebels", although it is still linked to from his website. Meantime, 2008 NDP candidate and former provincial Leader and MLA Ray Martin is also apparently signalling his intention to run again.
Interestingly, Martin's campaign only spent 29.5% of the expense limit in 2008 (
It will be interesting to see whether the prospect of competition in this urban Edmonton seat will play any role in Conservative party members' decision as to whether to hold a contested nomination meeting.
Labels: 41st General Election Nominations, Conservatives, NDP
posted by The Pundits' Guide at
1:48 PM
6 Comments:
there is some interesting info on here for edmonton , whats interesting is money does not equal a vistory there ( well at least for the liberals ) who regulary outspend the conservatives in those ridings , in edmonton mill woods i noticed the liberal spent the limit last election at a ratio of $ 10 for each vote he actually got . they also outspent in edmonton east in 04 and 06 yet weren't that close either .
as for the conservative candidate issue , geting 2 /3 to ask for a nomination is going to be a pretty hard number to reach in a riding held by a longtime mp . i'd be surpised if many reach that # .
Thanks for your perspective on that Anonymous. I guess time will tell on the nomination vote.
As to spending and success, I have been taking a look at that. Longstanding incumbents seem to be able to win even when spending a smaller proportion of the limit. When competition increases, so does spending. So we see that in seats with retiring incumbents, first-time incumbents, long-standing close races and 3-way and 4-way contests, spending goes up.
When trying to assess the effectiveness of spending, it's important to consider that winning the current election is only one objective. Building to increase the vote for a subsequent election might be a secondary objective. This is why, although I report the amount spent per vote obtained, I don't put a whole lot of stock in it, and prefer to look at how much was spent per voter.
On the other hand, not all kinds of spending is equally effective either, so the gross amount is not a perfect indicator.
With the NDP so low in the polls right now it is not clear if they can make a real run of this in a general election campaign. A general election would also force the NDP to protect its Strathcona incumbent who is in a weaker position from a demographic perspective. Edmonton East is definitely a friendlier seat demographically, which is why the NDP has held it before, but it should be noted that they won it by the barest of margins in 1988 and suffered a big loss in 1993. Ray Martin is almost as good as the NDP could get in that riding so the federal party should realise that it's either him or nobody. His strong showing in the last election will signal to a lot of apathetic voters (turnout was very low in 2008) that this riding could very well flip. The Liberals can't possibly drop far enough for the NDP to carry the riding so turnout becomes key. There will also be a lot of "bandwagon" Conservative voters that might turn their heads if it looks like Martin represents a little excitement, and some change, and could win. The nomination challenge could potentially be very damaging to the Conservatives. Altheim seems very young and naïve, Goldring is a very lazy MP, either way it could be bad.
If the NDP picks up in the polls, there is a byelection, and Ray Martin can convince Jack Layton to come and sing "The Toronto Song" by Three Dead Trolls in a Baggie in the riding, then the NDP will win this. In other words, don't hold your breath for it :)
"The Toronto Song" by Three Trolls in a Baggie
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_CF65H7j5Os&feature=related
Hey, so sorry I missed your comment earlier, o.NDP. Great video, which I originally didn't understand the relevance of to a post on Alberta, but now I get it :-)
Are you blogging again? There aren't too many Canadian bloggers who run correlations (like maybe three of us), so if so, it's nice to have you back.
Thanks Pundits Guide. I've been working on other projects and thus taken a blogging hiatus. I like your site a lot as it is becoming a bit of a Canadian gathering spot for the more quantitatively inclined. Here's hoping for the time and patience to get re-engaged in my blogging again :)
Well then, welcome back!
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