The Latest on the Earliest the New Westminster – Coquitlam By-Election Can Be Called
In an earlier blogpost, we noted that Dawn Black's resignation from the Commons was set to take effect on Monday, April 13, 2009 and calculated the earliest and latest dates that the by-election could be called ... assuming the Speaker's warrant advising of the vacancy was received by the Chief Electoral Officer (CEO) on the same day.
Elections Canada has just announced that the CEO actually received the warrant yesterday. Thus we can now calculate the true dates for a by-election call in her riding of New Westminster – Coquitlam, BC as follows:
Elections Canada has just announced that the CEO actually received the warrant yesterday. Thus we can now calculate the true dates for a by-election call in her riding of New Westminster – Coquitlam, BC as follows:
| Date of resignation: | Mon Apr 13, 2009 |
| Date Speaker's warrant received by CEO: | Thu Apr 16, 2009 |
| Earliest date the by-election could be called (11 days later): | Mon Apr 27, 2009 |
| Earliest date the by-election could be held (first Monday at least 36 days after that): | Mon Jun 8, 2009 |
| Latest date the by-election could be called (180 days later): | Tue Oct 13, 2009 |
| Latest date the by-election could be held (first Monday at least 36 - [no maximum] days later): | on or after Mon Nov 23, 2009 |
Labels: New Westminster – Coquitlam, Vacant Seats
posted by The Pundits' Guide at
12:18 PM
6 Comments:
My opinion is that Harper won't call the by election until after the May provincial election has concluded.
So, sometime after May 12 then, you think? I suspect you're right, but unless he did it almost right away after May 12, say for Monday, June 22 or Monday, June 29, the by-election would seem more likely to be delayed until the fall.
...which given Harper's record of letting by-elections go to the very last second, and the fact that we might have a fall federal election, means we might not even see this by-election.
My prediction:
Since the Cons will be disadvantaged in a by-election, we're talking AT LEAST September for Harper calling it.
And the date of the election will be sometime after the general election could be. [November]
HOW late the calling and the electiondate will be depends on:
The date for Harper calling it hinges on whether/when it becomes clear there will/won't be a Fall election.
The other factor is whether a de facto long campaign favours the Conservatives or the NDP. IE, call it in September for well into November... does that advantage either party?
Last and least factor would be who wins the provincial election. If the NDP loses, there may be some advantage to a somewhat earlier date. If they win, later to give some time for bad news for the Cons to capitalize on.
Even if by September a general election, or an election not, looks the most likely... things can change as the confidence vote date gets closer. So even if there is virtual certainty in talk of general election, or even if the Harper Crew has a planned date for precipitating an election, I think Harper will still treat the calling of the by-election as if the timing of the general election is an unknown.
I suppose June 29 by-election is a possibility if the NDP loses badly in the provincial election, and voter attitude research they will have done tells Harper this overcomes the usual disavantage for governing parties in by-elections.
And if such a move were not to pay off, as long as they come reasonably close, if there is a Fall election they ALSO get a chance in a general where the NDP MP will not have had a chance to establish the advantages of incumbency.
Anon and Ken,
All interesting points. I should note, Anon, that more than one prime minister (from more than one party) has let by-elections go to the last second, and if I recall correctly Mr. Harper has called some of them quite early.
I'm looking at historical data right now, and the one trend I'm noticing is that there used to be more single by-elections, whereas more recently (and it appeared to start under Prime Minister Chretien), by-elections tend to get called for groups of vacant ridings.
Thank you both for reading and commenting.
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