The latest judicial recount, whose results were announced late this afternoon, has changed the rankings of the Closest Contests in the recent general election. The new "Closest Contest" (and most narrow upset, for that matter) in the 2008 General Election is now (drum roll):

• Kitchener – Waterloo, ON, where Conservative candidate Peter Braid was confirmed to have defeated Liberal incumbent Andrew Telegdi by just 17 votes.
• Anecdotally the next narrowest is Vancouver South, BC, where incumbent Liberal M.P. Ujjal Dosanjh was reported earlier this week to be ahead of Conservative candidate Wai Young by just 22 votes after a partial recount (down from 33 in the validated results), although the presiding judge agreed to reexamine the count today, and no final result has been officially announced as yet. [UPDATE: ... because they hadn't finished yet, according to the Vancouver Sun Saturday morning. They'll go back at it on Monday.]

For the record, 17 votes represents a margin of less than 0.0% of the valid ballots cast (17/60534 = 0.02808339115207982290943932335547% of the vote, to be precise).

It also represents less than 1 vote per poll (in fact, 17/265 = 0.064150943396226415094339622641509 votes per poll if you want it to that many decimal places).

Voter turnout in Kitchener – Waterloo also declined from 70.4% in 2006 to 64.5% in 2008.

If anyone needed any additional evidence to prove just how much difference a single vote can make ... in, let's be honest, a riding that not one national pundit had seriously suggested was in play ... let this one be a lesson to us all.

Labels: 40th General Election, Close Margins, Recounts

One of the most frequent user requests for additional queries is the ranking of ridings by their rate of voter participation, or "Turnout" (TO). Although Turnout is reported throughout the database, nowhere are ridings ranked by turnout, whether high or low, and nowhere was it easy to find ridings with the greatest increases and decreases in turnout ... until now.

In fact, given the very low overall rate of voter turnout in the recent election, now seemed as good a time as any to get around to this item of work.

For a full definition and discussion of Turnout see the relevant section on the Pundit Metrics page. It is usually expressed as a percent -- "Total Ballots"/"Electors on the List" -- meaning that rejected ballots as well as ballots validly cast for a candidate are all included when determining Turnout. On the other hand, the vote share/vote percent obtained by a candidate and/or a party is calculated using only the "Valid Ballots" ("Candidate Vote"/("Total Ballots" - "Rejected Ballots")).

So without further ado I present four new "Election Pundit Queries", which you can access from the "Search the Database" page, from the "Pundit Queries" tab on the "Browse Elections" page, or more simply just from here:

• Ridings with the highest turnouts
• Ridings with the lower turnouts
• Ridings with the greatest increases in turnout
• Ridings with the greatest decreases in turnout

Since results are shown for every riding for every election, they can all take a second to load ... so try to be patient !

Labels: Voter Turnout

Before continuing with the series of "Gains and Losses" posts, it would probably be a good idea to review the state of the election results in each of the ridings, and where we're at with the various recounts. I'll update this post as developments unfold.

[For example, see below for the latest on Vancouver South and now also Esquimalt – Juan de Fuca. And, just in ... Kitchener – Waterloo. Brampton West is now finished, in fact, so this will be the final update.]

Results have now proceeded from the "Preliminary" stage to the "Validated" stage in all 308 ridings, and there have been a further 6 judicial recounts announced and/or completed (see this Elections Canada page for the latest results, and an explanation of the circumstances under which an Automatic recount is considered, versus one that is requested by an elector):

• Egmont, PE: announced here, and results reported here
• Brossard – La Prairie, QC: announced here, and results reported here
• Brampton West, ON: announced here, and [VERY LAST UPDATE:] results reported here
• Kitchener – Waterloo, ON (Automatic judicial recount): announced here; results reported here
• Esquimalt – Juan de Fuca, BC: announced here, and [UPDATE:] results reported here
  
• Vancouver South, BC (Automatic judicial recount): announced here, and [FINAL Van South UPDATE:] results reported here. Early results were available anecdotally through news stories [UPDATE: and Kady's investigations ... it now appears that the partial results, as yet unreported on the Elections Canada site, may become the subject of a legal intervention by the Conservative candidate, who is said to be seeking an order that all the ballots be judicially recounted. Stay tuned. FURTHER UPDATE: The saga continues ... as the judge reconsiders his original methodology.

Because all the queries in the Pundits' Guide database are dynamically generated, as soon as I receive and enter the latest results, all the queries ... including the Party Scorecard on the main page ... are instantly updated.

Labels: 40th General Election, Recounts

0	–	Elected in 2006 Election
+1	–	(Blair WILSON from West Vancouver – Sunshine Coast – Sea to Sky Country, BC, resigned from the Liberal caucus, and crossed the floor to the Green Party just before the election was called)
1	–	Dissolution
-1	–	(Blair WILSON lost the seat to John WESTON; he came 4th)
0	–	Elected in 2008 Election

The Green Party obtained 5 second-place finishes in the 303 ridings it contested this time out. This represented an increase over the single 2nd place finish it achieved in 2006, notwithstanding that the party was not able to run a full slate for the first time in 3 general elections. Those five ridings were:

• Central Nova, NS (Leader Elizabeth MAY obtained 32.2% of the vote in the seat retained by Peter MACKAY)
• Bruce – Grey – Owen Sound, ON (Dick HIBMA obtained 27.2% of the vote in the seat retained by Larry MILLER)
• Wild Rose, AB (Lisa Marie FOX obtained 12.6% of the vote in the seat formerly held by retiring incumbent Myron THOMPSON, and won by Blake RICHARDS)
• Calgary Southeast, AB (Margaret CHANDLER obtained 10.2% of the vote in the seat retained by Jason KENNEY)
• Macleod, AB (Jared MCCOLLUM obtained 9% of the vote in the seat retained by Ted MENZIES)

In addition, Greens placed ahead of the Conservatives in two other ridings (Bloc Québécois Leader Gilles Duceppe's riding of Laurier – Sainte-Marie, QC, and NDP Leader Jack Layton's riding of Toronto – Danforth, ON), ahead of the NDP in 16 additional ridings (mainly in Calgary and rural and suburban Ontario), and ahead of the Liberals in a further 21 ridings - all in western Canada (in Calgary, rural Alberta, rural British Columbia and a few on the prairies).

Its candidates obtained the 10% or better vote share required to become eligible for election expense rebates in 41/303 ridings, 34 more than last time. However two ridings which had previously achieved rebate levels in 2006 (both held by the NDP), saw the Green Party's raw vote and vote share fall below 10%:

• Ottawa Centre, ON (Jennifer HUNTER obtained 9.9% of the vote in the seat retained by Paul DEWAR)
• British Columbia Southern Interior, BC (Andy MOREL obtained 9.6% of the vote in the seat retained by Alex ATAMANENKO)

Nationally the Green Party's percentage of the vote increased by 2.3 points to 6.8%, and their share of the vote increased in 248/308 ridings. It was, moreover, the only major party to increase its raw vote (and thus its per-vote public funding subsidy) over the 2006 general election results.

No party owns votes or is owed the votes of another party, and participation in the electoral process as a candidate is the right of every Canadian citizen. However, for those who will ask whether the Green Party obtained more votes than the margin of victory in a riding that changed hands, only two cases can be found in the most recent unofficial results from Elections Canada:

• London West, ON, where Liberal M.P. Sue Barnes' vote share declined by 2.3 percentage points, Green Party candidate Monica Jarabek's vote share increased by 5.0 percentage points, and Barnes lost the seat to Conservative Ed Holder by 3.7% of the vote. However, Holder also increased the Conservative vote share by 3.6 percentage points, so it's hard to argue that the Green vote was decisive here.
• Vancouver Island North, ON, where NDP M.P. Catherine Bell's vote share declined by 0.3 percentage points, Green Party candidate Philip Stone increased the party's vote share by 5.2 percentage points, and Bell lost the seat to Conservative John Duncan by 4.3% of the vote. Again, Duncan increased his party's vote share by 5.2%, so the Green vote was by no means the only factor.

In the case of London West, the Green Party's growth appears more likely to have come at the expense of the NDP, leaving Liberal-Conservative switching the more likely cause of Barnes' defeat.

On the other hand, in Vancouver Island North the Liberal vote had already fallen from 21.5% in 2004 to 12.8% in 2006, and collapsed even further in 2008 to just 4.2%, splitting more or less equally in 2008 between the Greens and Conservatives. Had it held, Bell might be the MP instead.

I'll leave readers to drawn their own conclusions about whether so-called "strategic voting" had or might have had any effect on the outcomes or desired outcomes in these ridings. What I take away from these two examples is that it's very difficult to apply national assumptions about how votes might switch to the local circumstances in different parts of the country.

Labels: 40th General Election, Greens

29	–	Elected in 2006 Election
+1	–	(Thomas MULCAIR elected in a by-election)
30	–	Dissolution
-2	–	Peggy NASH lost to Gerard KENNEDY in Parkdale – High Park, ON; Catherine BELL lost to John DUNCAN in Vancouver Island North, BC
-1	–	Retiring incumbent (Penny PRIDDY in Surrey North, BC); seat lost to Conservative Dona Marie CADMAN
+10	–	(see Gains below; 6 from the Liberals and 4 from the Conservatives)
37	–	Elected in 2008 Election

Gains (defeated incumbent) - newly elected:

• NL: St. John's East (retired Conservative incumbent, Norman DOYLE) - Jack HARRIS
• ON: Welland (John MALONEY) - Malcolm ALLEN
• ON: Sudbury (Diane MARLEAU) - Glenn THIBEAULT
• ON: Nickel Belt (retired Liberal incumbent, Raymond BONIN) - Claude GRAVELLE
• ON: Algoma – Manitoulin – Kapuskasing (Brent ST. DENIS) - Carol HUGHES
• ON: Thunder Bay – Superior North (retired Conservative incumbent, Joe COMUZZI, last elected as a Liberal) - Bruce HYER
• ON: Thunder Bay – Rainy River (Ken BOSHCOFF) - John RAFFERTY
• MB: Churchill (Tina KEEPER) - Nikki ASHTON
• AB: Edmonton – Strathcona (Rahim JAFFER) - Linda DUNCAN
• BC: Vancouver Kingsway (retired Conservative incumbent, David EMERSON, last elected as a Liberal) - Don DAVIES

The New Democratic Party obtained 37 seats + 67 second-place finishes in the 308 ridings it contested (its largest share of seats-plus-seconds in this database). Its candidates obtained the 10% or better vote share required to become eligible for election expense rebates in 244/308 ridings. Nationally its percentage of the vote increased by 0.7%, and its share of the vote increased in more ridings than it declined (176 vs. 132). Nevertheless, the party was unable to achieve its unstated goal of overtaking one or more of the parties ahead of it.

Labels: 40th General Election, NDP

LAST UPDATED: Friday, October 24, 2008, after a Judicial recount overturned the preliminary results in Brossard – La Prairie, QC.

51	–	Elected in 2006 Election
-5	–	Benoît SAUVAGEAU deceased; Louise THIBAULT expelled from the caucus; Yvan LOUBIER, Michel GAUTHIER and Maka KOTTO retired)
+2	–	(Raymond GRAVEL and Ève-Mary Thaï THI LAC both elected in by-elections)
48	–	Dissolution
-2	–	Vivian BARBOT lost to Justin TRUDEAU in Papineau; Marcel LUSSIER lost to Alexandra MENDÈS in Brossard – La Prairie
+3	–	(see Gains below)
49	–	Elected in 2008 Election

Gains (defeated incumbent) - newly elected:

• QC: Rimouski-Neigette – Témiscouata – Les Basques (Louise THIBAULT, Ind/former BQ; she came 5th) - Claude GUIMOND
• QC: Louis-Hébert (Luc HARVEY, Cons) - Pascal-Pierre PAILLÉ
• QC: Saint-Lambert (vacant at dissolution after resignation of Maka KOTTO, BQ) - Josée BEAUDIN

In addition, 4 new members are joining the Bloc caucus, replacing 4 of their members who chose not to run in 2008:

• QC: Drummond (Pauline PICARD retired) - Roger POMERLEAU
• QC: Longueuil – Pierre-Boucher (Caroline ST-HILAIRE retired) - Jean DORION
• QC: Repentigny (Raymond GRAVEL retired) - Nicolas DUFOUR
• QC: Rivière-des-Mille-Îles - (Gilles A.-Perron retired) - Luc DESNOYERS

The Bloc Québécois obtained 49 seats + 17 second-place finishes in the 75 ridings it contests in the province of Québec (its smallest share of seats-plus-seconds in this database). Its candidates obtained the 10% or better vote share required to become eligible for election expense rebates in 71/75 ridings. Province-wide their percentage of the vote declined by 0.5%, and their share of the vote declined in 65/75 ridings. Nevertheless, the Bloc continues to dominate the political landscape federally in Québec, as it has since its creation.

Labels: 40th General Election, Bloc Québécois

1	–	Elected in 2006 Election (André ARTHUR in Portneuf – Jacques-Cartier, QC)
+1	–	(Bill CASEY from Cumberland – Colchester – Musquodoboit Valley, NS, was expelled from the Conservative caucus after voting against the Budget)
2	–	Dissolution
-0	–	(none defeated)
2	–	Elected in 2008 Election

In addition to the two seats above, Independent candidate James FORD obtained a second-place finish with 32.5% of the vote against first-time Conservative candidate Tim Uppal in Edmonton – Sherwood Park, AB.

Two other candidates obtained the 10% or better vote share required to become eligible for election expense rebates:

• Roger RICHARD obtained 13.2% of the vote in Calgary Northeast, AB
• Gary McHALE received 10.2% of the vote in Haldimand – Norfolk, ON

Labels: 40th General Election, Independent Candidates

During the 2008 election, CTV and its pollster the Strategic Counsel attempted a different look at the state of the race. With an idea undoubtedly inspired by the close red-blue states in recent American elections, they attempted to pick the closest races in three Canadian provinces and argued that the outcome of these races would determine the outcome of the election.

Points for trying something new, but as I've argued here previously, more of the ridings that changed hands in the 2000, 2004 and 2006 general elections had previously been won by more than 5% than had been won by less than 5%. Simply being a close-margin riding last time is no guarantee of being a close-margin riding this time, nor one that changes hands party-wise. Other factors, such as incumbency, which party is the government, the strength of the local candidates, and other local and regional factors, play at least as big a role as previous margins of victory.

In fact once we examine the current set of results, we see that this pattern repeated itself again in the 2008 General Election:

• Of the 42 Ridings that changed hands party-wise in 2008, 19 had been won by <= 5% in 2006, while 23 were won by > 5%.
• In other words just 19 of the 49 "Closest Contests" in 2006 (i.e., ridings won by <= 5% in 2006) subsequently changed hands in 2008, while the other 30 of them did not.
• Moreover, only 13 of the 42 "Closest Contests" in 2008 were also among the 49 "Closest Contests" in 2006 .
• So, only 13 ridings in Canada were settled by 5% or less in both 2006 and 2008. Just under half of them, 6 in fact, actually changed hands in 2008 (West Nova, NS; Saint John, NB; Papineau, QC; Welland, ON; London West, ON; and Vancouver Island North, BC). And only 2 of those (Papineau, QC and Vancouver Island North, BC) had changed hands in 2006 as well.

OK, so "close ridings" are not necessarily "swing ridings", nor necessarily close the next time around. But another claim that CTV and the Strategic Counsel made was that these ridings would decide the 2008 election. Does that assertion hold up?

Well, the change in winners of the "Battleground Ridings" did predict the direction of the election's outcome, but only about one-third of the magnitude of the swing from the Liberals to the Conservatives (and to a lesser extent the NDP).

Category	Cons	Lib	BQ	NDP	Ind
Actual 2008 GE Total	143	76	50	37	2
Non-Battleground 2006 GE (A)	108	86	43	25	1
Battleground 2006 GE (B)	16	17	8	4
Original 2006 GE Total (A + B)	124	103	51	29	1
Battleground 2008 GE (C)	23	8	8	6
Battleground Total (A + C)	131	94	51	31	1

Seven of the Ontario "battleground" ridings changed hands since 2006 (all previously held by the Liberals; 4 went to the Conservatives and 3 to the NDP). Two of the Quebec "battleground" ridings changed hands (the Bloc picked up a Conservative seat, and the Liberals picked up a Bloc seat). And four of the B.C. "battleground" ridings changed hands (the Conservatives picked up 1 NDP and 3 Liberal seats).

In other words, of the 42 ridings that changed hands party-wise in 2008 as compared with their 2006 General Election results, only 13 were found amongst the 45 CTV-Strategic Counsel battleground ridings (CTV counts 14, but they include changes since dissolution such as Halton, ON, where incumbent Garth Turner was elected as a Conservative but crossed the floor and ran for re-election as a Liberal). Another 14 were from provinces other than Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia. And the remaining 15 were Ontario, Quebec and BC ridings not included in the CTV-Strategic Counsel "battleground riding" list.

I do think it's interesting to try and predict ahead of time the battlegrounds on which an election will be fought. Unfortunately, I think the "close margin battleground" approach might be better suited for countries with two-party systems, whose elections turn on the votes of a few swing states. With Canada's multi-party parliamentary system, its 308 ridings spread across very distinct regions, each having different sets of parties in contention, this approach was perhaps not ideal.

If I were picking ridings to watch, I would have selected all the 3-way and 4-way races from last time, the seats with retiring incumbents, floor-crossers, or where previous incumbents were coming back to challenge the first-time incumbents who had defeated them in 2006, along with the traditional bellwether seats such as Peterborough, ON and Ottawa West – Nepean, ON. In this election I would also have added in the likely target ridings of the Conservative Party's ethnic outreach campaign, along with Quebec ridings where the Conservatives placed second in 2006 that had a military presence, and rural Maritime ridings especially those with no incumbent.

For the record, here are the CTV-Strategic Counsel Battleground Ridings for the 2008 General Election, their 2006 (or last by-election) margins of victory and contests, and their 2008 margins of victory and contests.

Riding	2006 Margin	2006 Cont	2008 Margin	2008 Cont
Ontario (20)
Parry Sound – Muskoka	0.1% 28	Cons-Lib	25.2% 10,960	Cons-Lib
Glengarry – Prescott – Russell	0.4% 203	Cons-Lib	10.4% 5,662	Cons-Lib
St. Catharines	0.4% 246	Cons-Lib	17.2% 8,822	Cons-Lib
Hamilton East – Stoney Creek	0.9% 466	NDP-Lib	13.4% 6,464	NDP-Lib
Brant	1.0% 582	Lib-Cons	8.8% 4,793	*Cons-Lib
Thunder Bay – Superior North	1.0% 408	Lib-NDP	8.7% 3,104	*NDP-Lib
Oakville	1.2% 744	Lib-Cons	9.9% 5,483	*Cons-Lib
Thunder Bay – Rainy River	1.7% 658	Lib-NDP	8.0% 2,884	*NDP-Lib
Huron – Bruce	1.8% 971	Lib-Cons	11.8% 5,846	*Cons-Lib
London – Fanshawe	1.9% 868	NDP-Lib	12.2% 5,013	NDP-Cons
Ottawa – Orléans	2.0% 1,231	Cons-Lib	6.1% 3,702	Cons-Lib
Simcoe North	2.1% 1,188	Cons-Lib	22.0% 11,658	Cons-Lib
London West	2.2% 1,329	Lib-Cons	3.7% 2,121	*Cons-Lib
Barrie	2.7% 1,543	Cons-Lib	28.5% 15,195	Cons-Lib
Kitchener – Conestoga	2.7% 1,369	Cons-Lib	24.4% 11,649	Cons-Lib
Halton	2.7% 1,897	Cons-Lib	11.3% 7,850	Cons-Lib
Peterborough	3.5% 2,242	Cons-Lib	15.8% 9,213	Cons-Lib
Algoma – Manitoulin – Kapuskasing	3.7% 1,408	Lib-NDP	13.0% 4,344	*NDP-Lib
Burlington	4.0% 2,599	Cons-Lib	15.4% 9,037	Cons-Lib
Mississauga South	4.1% 2,130	Lib-Cons	4.6% 2,152	Lib-Cons
Québec (15)
Louis – Hébert	0.4% 231	Cons-BQ	8.0% 4,649	*BQ-Cons
Ahuntsic	1.7% 834	BQ-Lib	0.9% 423	BQ-Lib
Beauport – Limoilou	1.7% 820	Cons-BQ	4.2% 2,032	Cons-BQ
Brossard – La Prairie	2.2% 1,243	BQ-Lib	0.2% 102	BQ-Lib
Papineau	2.3% 990	BQ-Lib	2.8% 1,189	*Lib-BQ
Charlesbourg – Haut-Saint-Charles	2.8% 1,372	Cons-BQ	11.9% 5,964	Cons-BQ
Hull – Aylmer	3.3% 1,788	Lib-BQ	15.4% 8,125	Lib-BQ
Honoré-Mercier	3.4% 1,743	Lib-BQ	15.6% 7,673	Lib-BQ
Saint-Hyacinthe – Bagot* (ByElec)	4.6% 1,478	BQ-Cons	26.1% 12,524	BQ-Cons
Pontiac	5.0% 2,371	Cons-BQ	8.5% 3,627	Cons-Lib
Jeanne-Le Ber	6.2% 3,095	BQ-Lib	2.7% 1,303	BQ-Lib
Laval – Les Îles	6.2% 3,312	Lib-BQ	16.9% 9,027	Lib-BQ
Gatineau	7.9% 4,267	BQ-Lib	3.0% 1,577	BQ-NDP
Chicoutimi – Le Fjord	9.3% 4,645	BQ-Lib	6.4% 3,057	BQ-Cons
Brome – Missisquoi	10.4% 5,027	BQ-Lib	2.4% 1,204	BQ-Lib
British Columbia (10)
Vancouver Quadra* (ByElec)	0.5% 151	Lib-Cons	8.6% 4,808	Lib-Cons
Vancouver Island North	1.1% 616	NDP-Cons	4.3% 2,485	*Cons-NDP
West Vancouver – Sunshine Coast – Sea to Sky Country	1.5% 976	Lib-Cons	18.1% 10,848	*Cons-Lib
Fleetwood – Port Kells	1.9% 828	Cons-Lib	18.6% 8,887	Cons-Lib
Newton – North Delta	2.3% 1,000	Lib-NDP	5.5% 2,493	Lib-Cons
Burnaby – Douglas	2.6% 1,244	NDP-Lib	1.7% 798	NDP-Cons
Esquimalt – Juan de Fuca	3.6% 2,166	Lib-NDP	0.1% 68	Lib-Cons
Richmond	4.1% 1,808	Lib-Cons	19.0% 8,138	*Cons-Lib
Pitt Meadows – Maple Ridge – Mission	5.2% 2,721	Cons-NDP	18.8% 9,618	Cons-NDP
North Vancouver	5.6% 3,336	Lib-Cons	4.9% 2,820	*Cons-Lib

Labels: 40th General Election, Swing Ridings

[Moved from the main page. The party leaders and their results in their ridings.]

Party Leaders (east to west)

Leader	Party	Riding
Elizabeth MAY	Green Party	Central Nova, NS
Blair T. LONGLEY	Marijuana Party	Hochelaga, QC
Gilles DUCEPPE	Bloc Québécois	Laurier – Sainte-Marie, QC
François Yo GOURD	neorhino.ca	Laurier – Sainte-Marie, QC
Stéphane DION	Liberal Party	Saint-Laurent – Cartierville, QC
Jack LAYTON	New Democratic Party	Toronto – Danforth, ON
Miguel FIGUEROA	Communist Party of Canada	Davenport, ON
Liz WHITE	Animal Alliance Environment Voters Party	Toronto Centre, ON
Roger F. POISSON	People's Political Power Party	Winnipeg North, MB
Stephen HARPER	Conservative Party	Calgary Southwest, AB
Dennis YOUNG	Libertarian Party	Calgary Southwest, AB
Ron GRAY	Christian Heritage Party	Langley, BC
Douglas L. CHRISTIE	Western Block Party	Not running this time
Connie FOGAL	Canadian Action Party	Not running this time (stepping down after election)
Thomas V. HICKEY	Newfoundland Labrador First Party	Not running this time
Conrad SCHMIDT	Work Less Party	Not running this time
Sandra L. SMITH	Marxist-Leninist Party of Canada	Not running this time
Sinclair STEVENS	Progressive Canadian Party	Not running this time
Barbara WARDLAW	First Peoples National Party	Not running this time (interim leader)

Labels: 40th General Election, Party Leaders

Hi folks: I apologize that the Pundits' Guide appeared to have been offline for a bit this morning. Apparently my host had to reboot the server. This morning of all times. Sigh. We do seem to be back online now. I apologize.

So, Election Day has arrived, which means a few more changes to the site.

First of all, I've taken the nominations progress table off the main page (you can still find it at the "Search the Database" page as usual, however).

Next, I've realized that this site is subject to the provisions of the Elections Act regarding the non-transmission of results until our friends on the west coast have finished making their electoral contribution. So apart from the main page, previous blog-posts, and innocuous pages like the FAQ and About pages, I've decided to put all the result pages behind an authentication barrier between 7:00 p.m. and 10:00 p.m. Eastern time. Apparently I should be turning off comments during that time as well, so I'll figure out how to do that before 7:00 p.m. too.

Hopefully by 10:00 PM I'll have some data for you to start pouring over. Meantime, take a look at the Party Scorecard from the 2006 General Election, which I've added to the top of the main page now as a point of reference.

If you're a candidate or party worker: have a great Election Day today, and the Pundits' Guide thanks you for participating in the democratic life of our country and wishes you all the best of personal luck. Voting in and of itself is not the be-all and end-all of citizenship and political participation in a democracy. But a lot of people have fought long and hard for us to have this right. So it is the first and most important element; one we should not take for granted.

For myself, I've already been to the Advance Poll and was fortunate to have a long-time and trusted friend on the ballot for whom I was proud to vote.

See you when the polls close!

Labels: 40th General Election

David Akin and the Jurist have taken note of Elections Canada's release yesterday of Advanced Voting estimates for the current election. As David remarks, the overall totals are down from the 2006 General Election. However in the Accidental Deliberations blog, Jurist wonders if we might find another story in the differences in advance poll turn-out between ridings.

So, I decided to look at the raw Advanced Voting numbers expressed as a percent of the number of Electors for each riding (data I entered on the weekend, by the way, along with the final candidate and registered party spending limits).

When we rank the ridings and look at the Top 20, some interesting observations emerge:

• 5 of those 20 ridings are in the Québec city area (Québec, Louis-Hébert, Louis-Saint-Laurent, Beauport – Limoilou, and Charlesbourg – Haute-Saint-Charles), and
• a good number of ridings on the list are said to be hotly contested in the current election, and/or changed hands during the last election, and moreover
• many will appear at the top of a couple of new Election Pundit Queries I'm adding in coming days: Ridings with the Highest Turnouts, and Ridings with the greatest increases in Turnout.

So, without further ado, here's that list.

Top 20 Ridings by Percent of Electors who voted in the Advance Polls, 2008 General Election

Adv TO	Prev Contest	Riding	Prev Margin
13.6%	Cons-BQ	Louis-Hébert, QC	0.4%
11.2%	Lib-Cons	Madawaska – Restigouche, NB	2.4%
11.2%	Cons-Lib	Parry Sound – Muskoka, ON	0.1%
11.2%	BQ-Cons	Trois-Rivières, QC	14.2%
11.1%	Lib-Cons	Beauséjour, NB	15.3%
11.0%	Lib-Cons	Mount Royal, QC	47.7%
10.7%	Cons-Lib	Carleton – Mississippi Mills, ON	32.6%
10.6%	Lib-Cons	Egmont, PE	22.2%
10.3%	Cons-BQ	Louis-Saint-Laurent, QC	33.5%
10.2%	Cons-BQ	Charlesbourg – Haute-Saint-Charles, QC	2.8%
10.2%	Cons-Lib	Nepean – Carleton, ON	27.0%
10.1%	BQ-Cons	Québec, QC	11.8%
10.1%	Cons-BQ	Beauport – Limoilou, QC	1.7%
10.0%	Lib-Cons	Charlottetown, PE	16.0%
10.0%	Lib-Cons	Thornhill, ON	19.4%
9.9%	Cons-Lib	Lanark – Frontenac – Lennox and Addington, ON	26.3%
9.8%	Lib-Cons	Nipissing – Timiskaming, ON	10.2%
9.7%	BQ-Cons	Laurentides – Labelle, QC	33.5%
9.6%	BQ-Lib	Brome – Missisquoi, QC	10.4%
9.6%	Cons-Lib	Prince Edward – Hastings, ON	17.1%
9.6%	Cons-Lib	Bruce – Grey – Owen Sound, ON	20.6%
9.5%	BQ-Cons	Saint-Bruno – Saint-Hubert, QC	30.5%
9.5%	Cons-Lib	Stormont – Dundas – South Glengarry, ON	27.6%
9.4%	Lib-Cons	Ottawa South, ON	6.7%
9.4%	NDP-Lib	Timmins – James Bay, ON	16.3%

Labels: 40th General Election, Turnout