Online organizing is considered an essential tactic on the modern political battleground. Unfortunately, we have very few measurable metrics available in order to assess the parties' relative prowess in this domain.

One simple one to track is the number of "Supporters" a politician has on her or his Facebook Politician page. Some candidates have organized Facebook groups instead, which have "Members". Finally, a few candidates use their personal profiles rather than political pages, in which case they have "Friends".

So, here is a count of the Supporters/Members/Friends of the party leaders and their candidates in each of the three by-election ridings, as of around midnight July 30. [I'm still on crappy dialup, and so the data were excruciatingly slow to collect tonight.]

Count of Facebook Supporters, etc., July 30, 2008, Around Midnight

30-Jul-08	Lib	NDP	Grn	BQ	Cons
Leader	11,584	11,886	2,208	729	10,307
St-L	156	71		<->	<->
WVM	305	398	152	102	56
Guelph	244	728	152		121

Neither Saint-Lambert Bloc candidate Josée Beaudin nor the Conservative candidate Patrick Clune have any apparent presence on Facebook as yet. Likely Facebook is less of a phenomenon in francophone life, although if anyone knows of a good french equivalent that is in wide use in Québec, please write and let me know. Note that the Green Party has yet to identify its candidate in Saint-Lambert, and of course the Bloc Québécois will not field a candidate in Guelph.

The main observation from our first "Facebook Watch" is the dominance of the NDP in the Leaders' sweepstakes and two of the three by-election ridings. Jack Layton has apparently been gaining on Stéphane Dion in the number of Facebook Supporters for several weeks now, and passed him sometime last week in the face of an observed last-minute surge by the Liberals.

Does this matter? Is Facebook important? Does the number of one's Facebook "friends" actually predict anything?

Well, one thing's for sure: it's axiomatic in politics that if a politician is ahead on a measure, it is by definition important; and if they're behind, it's meaningless. For the rest of us, we'll just watch the numbers for a few weeks, and see if they predict anything. If not (like my previous series of "Weekly Top 10" Google searches reaching the Pundits' Guide, which really only demonstrated that my site was the best source of information for little-known candidates at the time), well I'll just drop it.

By the way, clicking on any of the numbers in the table cells above should take you to the relevant Facebook resource. If not, please report the broken link to me here.

Labels: Facebook Watch, Fall 2008 By-elections

Following on yesterday's post which examined claims made in recent coverage of the Conservative Party's ethnic outreach campaign led by Calgary Southeast, AB M.P. Jason Kenney, today we use the recently released 2006 Census Data by Federal Electoral District (i.e., federal riding) to look at which ridings rate highly in the ethnic groups said to be the most assiduously courted in Kenney's charm offensive.

David Akin has already examined the percentage concentration of certain ethnic communities by Census Metropolitan Area (i.e., municipality, more or less). But today we're looking by federal riding, in search of the likely target ridings being alluded to in a number of media reports, including this past Monday's Hill Times and the Toronto Star from last February 23.

The strategy first came to light back in the fall of 2007 after a resident in the Ontario riding of Thornhill complained to Liberal M.P. about a greeting card personally mailed to them by the Prime Minister. The Globe and Mail's Daniel LeBlanc was able to obtain a copy of the Conservatives' strategy document [very large PDF file] as presented to their Election Training Conference and covered it in a front-page story on October 16, 2007. [Owing to my current crappy dialup service, I have not been able to review the PDF file for this post, however.]

Another journalist to report on that strategy was the Calgary Herald's Ottawa columnist, Don Martin. In a column for the National Post on February 19, 2008, he wrote:

Ethnic voters matter, now more than ever. And faced with the possibility of a race tightening into a few dozen key riding showdowns, racial profiling and cultural targeting are becoming intense platform, partisan and policy considerations....

The Conservatives' strategy is simple -- any riding they lost by less than 5% of the vote and which has an ethnic electoral bloc that can swing the seat will get special attention....

Roughly 40 swing ridings have decisive ethnic populations. And if the names are any indication, the Conservatives will contest more than 30 ridings with visible minority candidates on their ballot. (The Liberals could not provide comparable information.)

Sources admit the Conservatives are selective. Chinese, Koreans, Hindus, Jews, Persians, Italians and Vietnamese are top priorities. But Muslims and Sikhs? Well, not so much.

Tonda MacCharles' list from the Toronto Star four days later was "Koreans, Chinese (more often than not Cantonese-speaking émigrés from Hong Kong), Jews, South Asians, Persians, Poles, Jamaicans, Filipinos, and Vietnamese".

The 2006 Census riding profiles do not report separate numbers for Italians, Jamaicans, Persians, or Poles (the data is collected and available for purchase, however). Also no data was collected on religious affiliation in 2006, although we do have 2001 data available as a substitute. Finally, I have used the data collected for Southeast Asians as a proxy for Vietnamese.

For a methodology, I examined the 2006 Census Data (or 2001 for the categories "Jewish" and "Hindu") for the 50 top ridings in each category (raw numbers, not percent of the riding), rolled them up together, eliminated the ridings that were either solidly Conservative for many elections (i.e., in Alberta), or core urban ridings with solid Lib-NDP or NDP-Lib contests for most of the previous elections. What remains are the 70 ridings found below. They are sorted by province, and then in descending order from greatest raw number of target voters to least.

Clearly some will be bigger targets than others, whether for numeric reasons, incumbency, the number of viable parties competing in the riding, local organization, candidate strength, and other relevant issues. Notice also that some of the ridings on the list are currently held by Conservatives, in which case the ethnic outreach strategy would be expected to help hold the seat.

[Remember that ridings are classified here according to who won them in 2006, so Halton, ON appears as a Conservative riding even though Garth Turner has since crossed to the Liberals, Mississauga – Streetsville, ON appears as a Liberal riding even though Wajid Khan has since crossed to the Conservatives, and Vancouver Kingsway similarly shows Liberal.]

Cont	Rid	Marg	Sth Asia	Chin	Jwsh	Fili	Hind	SE Asia	Kor
Lib-Cons	Mount Royal, QC	17627 47.7%	5960 6.1%	3205 3.3%	34930 36.3%	8875 9.2%	4315 4.5%	2985 3.1%	650 0.7%
Lib-BQ	Saint-Laurent – Cartierville, QC	19220 45.3%	6655 6.2%	6825 6.4%	8195 8.2%	980 0.9%	2000 2.0%	4040 3.8%	115 0.1%
Lib-Cons	Pierrefonds – Dollard, QC	13375 28.0%	8125 7.8%	2610 2.5%	11005 10.8%	2340 2.2%	2095 2.1%	880 0.8%	80 0.1%
BQ-Lib	Papineau, QC	990 2.3%	10530 10.5%	2375 2.4%	145 0.1%	120 0.1%	3840 3.7%	3575 3.6%	30 0.0%
BQ-Lib	Brossard – La Prairie, QC	1243 2.2%	3940 3.5%	8480 7.5%	245 0.2%	990 0.9%	700 0.7%	1930 1.7%	210 0.2%
Lib-BQ	Notre-Dame-de-Grâce – Lachine, QC	10850 23.5%	2250 2.2%	4435 4.3%	3040 3.0%	2220 2.2%	815 0.8%	815 0.8%	420 0.4%
Lib-Cons	Lac-Saint-Louis, QC	11424 21.5%	3740 3.6%	3835 3.7%	1470 1.5%	760 0.7%	985 1.0%	715 0.7%	320 0.3%
Lib-BQ	Laval – Les Îles, QC	3312 6.2%	1870 1.7%	745 0.7%	3635 3.7%	250 0.2%	285 0.3%	2125 1.9%	40 0.0%
Lib-BQ	Saint-Léonard – Saint-Michel, QC	15933 38.4%	1165 1.1%	2045 2.0%	120 0.1%	165 0.2%	500 0.5%	4090 3.9%	10 0.0%
BQ-Lib	Ahuntsic, QC	834 1.7%	2695 2.7%	1965 2.0%	185 0.2%	140 0.1%	1240 1.3%	1795 1.8%	20 0.0%
BQ-Cons	Rivière-des-Mille-Îles, QC	16099 33.0%	95 0.1%	250 0.3%	1515 1.6%	65 0.1%	15 0.0%	595 0.6%	0 0.0%
Lib-Cons	Scarborough – Rouge River, ON	20853 45.2%	39065 29.9%	40625 31.1%	110 0.1%	9905 7.6%	15645 13.6%	1445 1.1%	310 0.2%
Lib-Cons	Markham – Unionville, ON	18616 35.2%	32655 25.7%	49545 39.0%	325 0.3%	3710 2.9%	10260 9.2%	1090 0.9%	535 0.4%
Lib-Cons	Scarborough – Agincourt, ON	17381 38.8%	15045 13.5%	50620 45.5%	330 0.3%	4095 3.7%	7300 6.6%	1005 0.9%	775 0.7%
Lib-Cons	Thornhill, ON	10929 19.4%	8400 6.4%	15755 12.0%	42710 36.6%	3820 2.9%	3250 2.8%	830 0.6%	4215 3.2%
Lib-Cons	Bramalea – Gore – Malton, ON	8981 18.0%	60280 39.6%	2250 1.5%	265 0.2%	2920 1.9%	8880 7.4%	2500 1.6%	110 0.1%
Lib-Cons	Mississauga – Brampton South, ON	11765 23.2%	37975 28.0%	11410 8.4%	210 0.2%	7320 5.4%	7365 6.5%	4570 3.4%	1630 1.2%
Lib-Cons	Willowdale, ON	14369 25.9%	6335 4.9%	40115 31.2%	9050 8.4%	2720 2.1%	1645 1.5%	575 0.4%	10035 7.8%
Lib-Cons	Brampton West, ON	7643 13.4%	45500 26.8%	2635 1.6%	160 0.1%	5550 3.3%	4845 4.3%	2315 1.4%	255 0.2%
Lib-Cons	Oak Ridges – Markham, ON	6400 8.6%	14055 8.4%	37185 22.1%	1440 1.3%	3300 2.0%	1525 1.4%	1135 0.7%	1215 0.7%
Lib-Cons	Mississauga – Erindale, ON	3328 5.6%	27820 19.5%	13345 9.3%	550 0.5%	7045 4.9%	5005 4.2%	2475 1.7%	2090 1.5%
Lib-Cons	Brampton – Springdale, ON	7802 16.6%	42075 32.1%	2910 2.2%	235 0.2%	3170 2.4%	6795 5.8%	1720 1.3%	150 0.1%
Lib-Cons	Scarborough – Guildwood, ON	10087 24.6%	30855 28.6%	3135 2.9%	345 0.3%	5940 5.5%	14875 13.3%	1240 1.2%	335 0.3%
Lib-Cons	Scarborough Centre, ON	11810 28.0%	22715 21.3%	12930 12.1%	235 0.2%	8805 8.3%	9610 9.5%	1045 1.0%	640 0.6%
Lib-Cons	Etobicoke North, ON	14146 39.3%	34185 31.9%	2155 2.0%	200 0.2%	3085 2.9%	12310 11.1%	1665 1.6%	680 0.6%
Lib-Cons	Richmond Hill, ON	11273 21.7%	7880 6.4%	28770 23.5%	9385 8.6%	2135 1.7%	2040 1.9%	630 0.5%	3290 2.7%
Lib-Cons	Mississauga East – Cooksville, ON	9204 20.2%	24530 19.4%	8260 6.5%	240 0.2%	8715 6.9%	7190 5.9%	3630 2.9%	1435 1.1%
Lib-Cons	York Centre, ON	9640 22.6%	5405 4.8%	4540 4.0%	27395 24.4%	8520 7.6%	2565 2.3%	2500 2.2%	3035 2.7%
Lib-Cons	Don Valley West, ON	10801 20.1%	19170 16.5%	10355 8.9%	9340 8.2%	4430 3.8%	4235 3.7%	585 0.5%	2255 1.9%
Lib-Cons	Don Valley East, ON	10780 24.8%	13610 12.5%	20295 18.7%	1615 1.5%	4970 4.6%	4900 4.4%	745 0.7%	2475 2.3%
Lib-Cons	Mississauga – Streetsville, ON	5792 11.1%	25180 19.4%	9625 7.4%	420 0.4%	5315 4.1%	4495 3.8%	2105 1.6%	1045 0.8%
Lib-Cons	York West, ON	15174 45.2%	19140 18.5%	5985 5.8%	315 0.3%	1895 1.8%	8635 7.8%	7350 7.1%	440 0.4%
Lib-Cons	Eglinton – Lawrence, ON	11147 22.6%	2570 2.4%	3520 3.2%	24435 23.2%	6940 6.4%	1105 1.0%	1095 1.0%	880 0.8%
Lib-Cons	Scarborough Southwest, ON	9913 23.8%	15440 15.3%	7645 7.6%	300 0.3%	7855 7.8%	6500 6.2%	890 0.9%	490 0.5%
Lib-Cons	St. Paul's, ON	14274 24.5%	2705 2.5%	4095 3.7%	15515 14.0%	4435 4.0%	780 0.7%	605 0.6%	1055 1.0%
Lib-Cons	Pickering – Scarborough East, ON	11026 21.0%	14290 13.5%	3730 3.5%	275 0.3%	4390 4.1%	4505 4.2%	695 0.7%	575 0.5%
Lib-Cons	Vaughan, ON	20844 33.7%	14250 9.3%	3615 2.4%	630 0.6%	2590 1.7%	1830 1.6%	3675 2.4%	750 0.5%
Lib-Cons	Ajax – Pickering, ON	8644 16.6%	12945 11.1%	2390 2.1%	280 0.3%	3865 3.3%	2735 2.7%	565 0.5%	310 0.3%
Cons-Lib	Halton, ON	1897 2.7%	10510 7.0%	4125 2.7%	425 0.4%	2435 1.6%	990 1.0%	820 0.5%	1105 0.7%
Lib-Cons	Mississauga South, ON	2130 4.1%	8130 7.4%	3495 3.2%	440 0.4%	2640 2.4%	2220 2.0%	975 0.9%	735 0.7%
Lib-Cons	Etobicoke Centre, ON	10807 19.2%	7390 6.7%	3460 3.1%	385 0.3%	1790 1.6%	2510 2.3%	845 0.8%	2220 2.0%
Cons-Lib	Nepean – Carleton, ON	19401 27.0%	5655 4.3%	5625 4.3%	2245 2.1%	1055 0.8%	1205 1.1%	1875 1.4%	380 0.3%
Cons-Lib	Ottawa West – Nepean, ON	5357 9.0%	4155 3.9%	5445 5.1%	2745 2.5%	1110 1.0%	1870 1.7%	1695 1.6%	365 0.3%
Lib-Cons	Kitchener – Waterloo, ON	12319 18.5%	5390 4.3%	5915 4.7%	485 0.4%	515 0.4%	1840 1.6%	1875 1.5%	960 0.8%
Lib-Cons	Etobicoke – Lakeshore, ON	4724 8.5%	4645 4.1%	3075 2.7%	545 0.5%	3570 3.1%	1640 1.5%	795 0.7%	1880 1.7%
Lib-Cons	Ottawa South, ON	4130 6.7%	4395 3.8%	4345 3.7%	1890 1.6%	1260 1.1%	1450 1.2%	1285 1.1%	465 0.4%
Cons-Lib	Carleton – Mississippi Mills, ON	22644 32.6%	3905 3.1%	5740 4.5%	615 0.6%	745 0.6%	810 0.7%	2015 1.6%	395 0.3%
Lib-Cons	Newmarket – Aurora, ON	4800 8.2%	2930 2.4%	3405 2.8%	1710 1.6%	1370 1.1%	505 0.5%	2510 2.1%	745 0.6%
Lib-Cons	Oakville, ON	744 1.2%	5240 4.6%	2900 2.6%	845 0.8%	1225 1.1%	1230 1.1%	505 0.4%	1065 0.9%
Lib-Cons	London North Centre, ON	6141 10.2%	2375 2.1%	3135 2.8%	1215 1.1%	640 0.6%	625 0.6%	1520 1.3%	865 0.8%
Cons-Lib	Ancaster – Dundas – Flamborough – Westdale, ON	2874 4.6%	2295 2.1%	2395 2.2%	1905 1.8%	265 0.2%	560 0.5%	235 0.2%	490 0.4%
Lib-Cons	Kitchener Centre, ON	5583 11.1%	2905 2.7%	1230 1.2%	350 0.3%	285 0.3%	610 0.6%	1890 1.8%	300 0.3%
NDP-Lib	London – Fanshawe, ON	868 1.9%	1485 1.4%	1105 1.0%	170 0.2%	730 0.7%	290 0.3%	1840 1.7%	290 0.3%
Lib-Cons	Winnipeg South Centre, MB	3219 7.8%	1235 1.6%	1285 1.7%	6990 9.2%	1210 1.6%	265 0.3%	250 0.3%	315 0.4%
Cons-Lib	Kildonan – St. Paul, MB	3927 9.7%	1375 1.7%	535 0.7%	3205 4.2%	3095 3.8%	125 0.2%	295 0.4%	15 0.0%
Lib-Cons	Vancouver South, BC	9135 20.9%	17990 15.1%	51940 43.7%	1410 1.3%	7865 6.6%	2815 2.5%	3430 2.9%	1425 1.2%
Lib-NDP	Vancouver Kingsway, BC	4592 9.9%	7775 6.5%	47605 40.1%	1135 1.0%	11930 10.0%	3310 2.9%	5685 4.8%	1015 0.9%
Lib-Cons	Richmond, BC	1808 4.1%	4930 4.3%	56940 50.2%	2230 2.1%	5770 5.1%	1050 1.0%	800 0.7%	955 0.8%
Lib-NDP	Newton – North Delta, BC	1000 2.3%	50510 42.7%	5975 5.0%	255 0.2%	3510 3.0%	4595 4.1%	1275 1.1%	430 0.4%
Cons-Lib	Fleetwood – Port Kells, BC	828 1.9%	31005 25.3%	10040 8.2%	105 0.1%	5735 4.7%	2000 2.0%	4135 3.4%	4695 3.8%
NDP-Lib	Burnaby – New Westminster, BC	3971 8.9%	12285 10.4%	29430 25.0%	235 0.2%	6970 5.9%	1830 1.7%	1355 1.2%	4205 3.6%
NDP-Cons	Surrey North, BC	6443 18.1%	33655 30.3%	4965 4.5%	110 0.1%	7590 6.8%	4465 4.2%	3555 3.2%	1620 1.5%
Lib-Cons	Vancouver Quadra, BC	11811 20.3%	2155 1.8%	28070 23.6%	4195 3.8%	1030 0.9%	445 0.4%	455 0.4%	3245 2.7%
Cons-Lib	Delta – Richmond East, BC	8068 16.6%	10935 10.4%	20435 19.4%	915 0.9%	4390 4.2%	1290 1.3%	760 0.7%	545 0.5%
Cons-Lib	Port Moody – Westwood – Port Coquitlam, BC	6827 14.1%	4245 3.7%	17420 15.0%	250 0.2%	2965 2.6%	1135 1.0%	1050 0.9%	5535 4.8%
Lib-NDP	Vancouver Centre, BC	8639 15.1%	2805 2.3%	13515 11.1%	2440 2.3%	2345 1.9%	295 0.3%	950 0.8%	3545 2.9%
NDP-Cons	New Westminster – Coquitlam, BC	2933 5.8%	4290 3.9%	11460 10.4%	465 0.4%	3405 3.1%	730 0.7%	660 0.6%	3630 3.3%
Lib-Cons	North Vancouver, BC	3336 5.6%	3715 3.1%	7185 5.9%	935 0.8%	3200 2.6%	400 0.3%	335 0.3%	3285 2.7%
Lib-Cons	West Vancouver – Sunshine Coast – Sea to Sky Country, BC	976 1.5%	3100 2.4%	4350 3.4%	1215 1.0%	1380 1.1%	225 0.2%	345 0.3%	1585 1.2%
Cons-NDP	Pitt Meadows – Maple Ridge – Mission, BC	2721 5.2%	4730 4.0%	2455 2.1%	110 0.1%	1240 1.0%	290 0.3%	740 0.6%	1020 0.9%

I do not claim that every seat on the above list is or ought to be a target of the Conservatives' ethnic outreach strategy. However, they will no doubt be measuring the success of their strategy on the basis of advances or retreats in their vote in seats such as these.

It is a little ironic, and worth noting, that Kenney's own riding of Calgary Southeast, AB does not rank in the top 50 in any of these categories, and is #120/308 in the percentage of visible minority residents.

Labels: Census Data, Conservatives, Ethnic Communities

In Monday's Hill Times Abbas Rana reports further details of the Conservative outreach strategy to ethnic communities being spearheaded by Jason Kenney (long-time Conservative M.P. for Calgary Southeast, AB), and recalls an earlier February story by Tonda MacCharles of the Toronto Star outlining the Kenney's strategic targets. As MacCharles wrote in February:

This is ethnic outreach with a purpose. Conservative strategists are eyeing 30 ridings across Canada that were lost by 5 per cent of the vote and where ethnic groups make up a large enough percentage of voters to swing the result next time. In the GTA, 16 ridings have been identified.
Nine ethnic groups in particular are coming in for special attention: Koreans, Chinese (more often than not Cantonese-speaking émigrés from Hong Kong), Jews, South Asians, Persians, Poles, Jamaicans, Filipinos, and Vietnamese.

Rana adds another wrinkle, reporting that "Conservative strategists are eyeing 30 ridings across the country where they lost by five per cent of the vote and where ethnic groups make up a large enough percentage of voters to swing the result in the next federal election" [emphasis added].

Well, now that we have the 2006 Census Data available, and with an eye on the Percent Margin from the 2006 General election, how well can we guess which ridings these might be?

First of all, Rana can't be right because there were only 14 ridings which the Conservatives lost by fewer than 5 percentage points, 12 of which met the criteria that the number of people who identify themselves as visible minorities exceeded the previous margin of victory.

Contest	Riding	% Marg	Raw Marg	# Vis Min	% Vis Min
Lib-Cons	Desnethé – Missinippi – Churchill River, SK	0.27%	67	*355	0.52%
Lib-Cons	Brant, ON	0.97%	582	*6715	5.44%
NDP-Cons	Vancouver Island North, BC	1.09%	616	*3415	3.03%
Lib-Cons	West Nova, NS	1.13%	512	*1815	2.14%
Lib-Cons	Oakville, ON	1.25%	744	*17190	15.18%
Lib-Cons	West Vancouver – Sunshine Coast – Sea to Sky Country, BC	1.53%	976	*17905	13.97%
Lib-Cons	Huron – Bruce, ON	1.82%	971	*1680	1.63%
Lib-Cons	London West, ON	2.18%	1329	*14670	12.52%
Lib-Cons	Madawaska – Restigouche, NB	2.45%	885	520	0.85%
Lib-Cons	Saint Boniface, MB	3.58%	1524	*8290	9.91%
Lib-Cons	Saint John, NB	3.62%	1449	*3375	4.18%
Lib-Cons	Mississauga South, ON	4.09%	2130	*26280	23.90%
Lib-Cons	Richmond, BC	4.14%	1808	*75995	66.94%
Lib-Cons	Random – Burin – St. George's, NL	4.73%	1420	550	0.78%

We don't see many events in Northern Saskatchewan, Vancouver Island North or West Nova on Kenney's schedule as reported in the Hill Times story, so let's assume we have to cast a wider net.

Suppose instead that the criterion is ridings lost in 2006 by less than 5% by anyone, but which were not won by a Conservative (to see the full list of ridings won by less than 5%, use the Party Pundit Query called "Closest contests (MargPct <= 0.05)" found on the "Search the Database" page). This brings us up to 31 ridings, of which 26 report a greater percentage of visible minorities than their 2006 Percent Margin of victory:

Contest	Riding	% Marg	Raw Marg	# Vis Min	% Vis Min
Lib-Cons	Desnethé – Missinippi – Churchill River, SK	0.27%	67	*355	0.52%
NDP-Lib	Hamilton East – Stoney Creek, ON	0.87%	466	*14695	12.68%
Lib-Cons	Brant, ON	0.97%	582	*6715	5.44%
Lib-NDP	Thunder Bay – Superior North, ON	1.05%	408	*2195	2.69%
NDP-Cons	Vancouver Island North, BC	1.09%	616	*3415	3.03%
Lib-Cons	West Nova, NS	1.13%	512	*1815	2.14%
Lib-Cons	Oakville, ON	1.25%	744	*17190	15.18%
Lib-Cons	West Vancouver – Sunshine Coast – Sea to Sky Country, BC	1.53%	976	*17905	13.97%
BQ-Lib	Ahuntsic, QC	1.67%	834	*25225	25.70%
Lib-NDP	Thunder Bay – Rainy River, ON	1.71%	658	*1355	1.61%
Lib-Cons	Huron – Bruce, ON	1.82%	971	*1680	1.63%
NDP-Lib	London – Fanshawe, ON	1.86%	868	*16910	15.90%
BQ-Lib	Brossard – La Prairie, QC	2.16%	1243	*26130	23.06%
Lib-Cons	London West, ON	2.18%	1329	*14670	12.52%
BQ-Lib	Papineau, QC	2.27%	990	*36505	36.37%
Lib-NDP	Newton – North Delta, BC	2.28%	1000	*67020	56.62%
Lib-Cons	Madawaska – Restigouche, NB	2.45%	885	520	0.85%
NDP-Lib	Burnaby – Douglas, BC	2.55%	1244	*57705	51.89%
Lib-BQ	Hull – Aylmer, QC	3.32%	1788	*10595	9.67%
Lib-BQ	Honoré-Mercier, QC	3.40%	1743	*22005	21.12%
Lib-Cons	Saint Boniface, MB	3.58%	1524	*8290	9.91%
Lib-Cons	Saint John, NB	3.62%	1449	*3375	4.18%
Lib-NDP	Esquimalt – Juan de Fuca, BC	3.64%	2166	*9670	8.06%
Lib-NDP	Algoma – Manitoulin – Kapuskasing, ON	3.67%	1408	980	1.27%
Lib-Cons	Mississauga South, ON	4.09%	2130	*26280	23.90%
Lib-Cons	Richmond, BC	4.14%	1808	*75995	66.94%
NDP-Lib	Parkdale – High Park, ON	4.47%	2301	*26150	26.13%
Lib-NDP	Nickel Belt, ON	4.61%	2107	815	0.92%
NDP-Lib	Sault Ste. Marie, ON	4.66%	2154	1060	1.20%
Lib-Cons	Random – Burin – St. George's, NL	4.73%	1420	550	0.78%
Lib-NDP	Welland, ON	4.86%	2775	*4880	4.37%

But only 2 of these are in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), 2 are in London, and only another 4 (Brant, Hamilton East – Stoney Creek, Oakville and Welland) are even in the broad vicinity.

Instead then, suppose we switch gears and examine the 50 ridings having the highest percentage of identified visible minorities, regardless of the margin of victory. Would this give us a better idea of Kenney's priorities?

Contest	Riding	% Marg	Raw Marg	# Vis Min	% Vis Min
Lib-Cons	Scarborough – Rouge River, ON	45.18%	20853	*117085	89.68%
Lib-Cons	Markham – Unionville, ON	35.16%	18616	*98860	77.89%
Lib-Cons	Scarborough – Agincourt, ON	38.76%	17381	*85250	76.68%
Lib-Cons	Vancouver South, BC	20.91%	9135	*89595	75.35%
Lib-Cons	Etobicoke North, ON	39.27%	14146	*76020	70.97%
Lib-NDP	Vancouver Kingsway, BC	9.95%	4592	*81385	68.52%
Lib-Cons	York West, ON	45.19%	15174	*70425	67.98%
Lib-Cons	Richmond, BC	4.14%	1808	*75995	66.94%
Lib-Cons	Bramalea – Gore – Malton, ON	17.96%	8981	*97810	64.22%
Lib-Cons	Scarborough Centre, ON	28.03%	11810	*65125	61.17%
Lib-Cons	Scarborough – Guildwood, ON	24.56%	10087	*65760	61.03%
Lib-Cons	Mississauga – Brampton South, ON	23.19%	11765	*82020	60.45%
Lib-Cons	Willowdale, ON	25.92%	14369	*76955	59.84%
Lib-Cons	Don Valley East, ON	24.83%	10780	*62020	57.00%
Lib-NDP	Newton – North Delta, BC	2.28%	1000	*67020	56.62%
Lib-Cons	Brampton – Springdale, ON	16.57%	7802	*74010	56.52%
NDP-Lib	Burnaby – New Westminster, BC	8.86%	3971	*64075	54.46%
Lib-Cons	Brampton West, ON	13.41%	7643	*91555	54.01%
NDP-Cons	Surrey North, BC	18.05%	6443	*59800	53.88%
NDP-Lib	Burnaby – Douglas, BC	2.55%	1244	*57705	51.89%
Lib-Cons	Mississauga – Erindale, ON	5.55%	3328	*74135	51.88%
Lib-Cons	Mississauga East – Cooksville, ON	20.20%	9204	*64530	51.17%
Lib-NDP	York South – Weston, ON	35.79%	14346	*57785	50.90%
Cons-Lib	Fleetwood – Port Kells, BC	1.90%	828	*61560	50.24%
Cons-Lib	Calgary Northeast, AB	42.80%	17928	*62405	48.51%
Lib-Cons	Scarborough Southwest, ON	23.79%	9913	*49040	48.44%
Lib-Cons	Mississauga – Streetsville, ON	11.13%	5792	*62235	47.95%
Lib-Cons	Richmond Hill, ON	21.70%	11273	*58105	47.55%
NDP-Lib	Vancouver East, BC	33.15%	14020	*49945	47.49%
Lib-Cons	Don Valley West, ON	20.08%	10801	*50005	43.09%
Lib-Cons	Oak Ridges – Markham, ON	8.58%	6400	*70070	41.66%
Lib-BQ	Saint-Laurent – Cartierville, QC	45.27%	19220	*44500	41.48%
Lib-NDP	Toronto Centre, ON	28.48%	16838	*48435	40.98%
Cons-Lib	Delta – Richmond East, BC	16.56%	8068	*42435	40.28%
Lib-Cons	Pickering – Scarborough East, ON	20.96%	11026	*40230	37.99%
Lib-Cons	York Centre, ON	22.59%	9640	*41840	37.11%
NDP-Lib	Trinity – Spadina, ON	5.89%	3681	*41165	36.48%
BQ-Lib	Papineau, QC	2.27%	990	*36505	36.37%
Lib-Cons	Ajax – Pickering, ON	16.65%	8644	*42360	36.34%
Lib-BQ	Saint-Léonard – Saint-Michel, QC	38.43%	15933	*36555	34.98%
Cons-Lib	Calgary – Nose Hill, AB	51.38%	28372	*45685	34.97%
Cons-Lib	Port Moody – Westwood – Port Coquitlam, BC	14.06%	6827	*40295	34.79%
Lib-Cons	Mount Royal, QC	47.65%	17627	*33425	34.49%
Lib-Cons	Vancouver Quadra, BC	20.25%	11811	*40615	34.19%
NDP-Lib	Toronto – Danforth, ON	14.19%	7156	*34485	33.91%
Lib-Cons	Thornhill, ON	19.39%	10929	*43930	33.33%
Lib-NDP	Davenport, ON	19.26%	7491	*34455	33.15%
NDP-Lib	Winnipeg North, MB	36.07%	9830	*25415	32.31%
Cons-Lib	Edmonton – Mill Woods – Beaumont, AB	37.47%	17382	*35335	31.44%
Lib-NDP	Beaches – East York, ON	5.43%	2778	*32595	31.32%

Now we see a lot more GTA ridings, although certainly not many with a narrow margin last time out. In fact only one GTA riding was decided by less than 5% in 2006 (Parkdale – High Park), and only 4 ridings in the entire GTA were decided by less than 10% (including Beaches – East York, Trinity – Spadina, and Etobicoke – Lakeshore). Still a number of these ridings are good candidates for Kenney's list.

Next, we'll begin looking at ridings that rate highly in the nine ethnic groups said to be of most particular interest in the Conservative outreach programme.

Labels: Census Data, Conservatives, Ethnic Communities

The Prime Minister has made it official: the three ridings for September 8. Residents of Don Valley West, ON will not be going to the polls for awhile, it seems.

Labels: Fall 2008 By-elections

Hurry, hurry, snap one up before they're all gone! That's right, by my count there are only 5 vacant Conservative nominations left in B.C., so if there's a certain cabinet minister who's looking, here are the remaining choices:

[UPDATE: OK, there are actually 6 seats left. Turns out (again) it was not a good idea to rely on Wikipedia, and so we can add Vancouver Centre, currently held by long-time Liberal M.P. Hedy Fry, to the list as well.]

• Burnaby – Douglas, where a reader wrote me tonight to advise that Wikipedia was wrong again, and in fact no nomination meeting has been scheduled as yet. Wikipedia lists Ronald Leung, but in fact he is currently a candidate for the Conservative nomination, as is Salomon Rayek. The incumbent M.P. is two-term NDP'er Bill Siksay.
• Kamloops – Thompson – Cariboo, a very interesting choice points out one Kamloops blogger, since incumbent Conservative M.P. Betty Hinton will not be running again.
• Vancouver East, where the incumbent is long-time NDP M.P. Libby Davies.
• Vancouver Kingsway, the riding currently held by two-term Conservative M.P. David Emerson, who was elected on both occasions as a Liberal, but subsequently changed parties to accept a cabinet position.
• Vancouver Quadra, narrowly won by first-time Liberal M.P. Joyce Murray in this past spring's by-election.

Labels: 40th General Election Nominations, Conservatives

Tonight the Canadian Press' Joan Bryden has her own entry in the by-election date pool, the earlier CanWest prediction of July 20 for September 8 having already been superceded by events.

Bryden is reporting that some Conservative insiders are now speculating on the likelihood that Prime Minister Harper will choose the earliest possible election day, Tuesday September 2nd, right after the Labour Day weekend.

She is also reporting some internal polling data one party is talking up, as well as the positioning spin of all the key party insiders, including Liberal Senator David Smith, Conservative Party spokesperson Ryan Sparrow, and NDP Deputy Leader Thomas Mulcair.

Labels: Fall 2008 By-elections

A couple of database changes to record tonight:

• 2006 candidate Neal Gray apparently stepped down from the NDP nomination in Edmonton – Mill Woods – Beaumont, AB awhile back for personal reasons. Although another candidate has declared interest in the nomination, nothing is finalized for the NDP as yet in the race against first-term Conservative M.P, Mike Lake.
• Naming 2007 by-election candidate Louise Boulanger as the Liberal candidate in Roberval – Lac-Saint-Jean, QC for the general election is not correct, a reader has written to advise. The Liberals have yet to nominate a candidate to face first-time Conservative M.P. Denis Lebel.

There are two other items worth noting:

• Needless to say, the Prime Minister did not do as expected by the Ottawa rumour mill and call those three by-elections yesterday. He has until Saturday July 26 to call Westmount – Ville-Marie, QC. If he calls them for any date before September 22 or so, Don Valley West, ON will not be included in this round. The Commons is scheduled to resume sitting on Monday September 15.
• Elections Canada is conducting a survey of users of its website. If you are a regular or occasional user of the agency's website, do take a second to fill it out and give your constructive comments and suggestions for improvement.

Labels: 40th General Election Nominations, Fall 2008 By-elections, Liberals, NDP

I've begun the slow process of recording the exact way to link to each Candidate's financial return details at the Elections Canada site ... and not surprisingly, I started with the three ridings in which -- if the Ottawa rumour mill is right -- we're expecting by-election calls later today.

So, if you reach the "Financial Metrics" tab of a riding profile, and see an icon like this () next to the candidate's name, click on it and you'll be instantly transported to the correct spot at the Elections Canada web-site. I'll be adding them to the candidate profile page as well shortly.

Labels: Election Expenses, Election Finance

Data is now up for the Candidate and Party Election Campaign Returns from the three Québec ridings in the 2007 By-elections, namely:

• Outremont, QC
• Roberval – Lac-Saint-Jean, QC
• Saint-Hyacinthe – Bagot, QC

You can also find a good summary on the "Browse Parties" page for that electoral event here.

Rebate information is not yet available for parties or candidates however, and not all candidates' returns have been finally reviewed by Elections Canada. Remember, when the Candidate Finance data at the Pundits' Guide is not "as reviewed by Elections Canada", but only "as submitted to Elections Canada", it appears in italics on the "Financial Metrics" tab of the riding profile page.

A couple of notes:

• Only Conservative Party candidates spent > 75% of the candidate spending limits in each of the 3 ridings, and in total its candidates spent some 95% of the limit.
• The Bloc spent >75% in 2 of the 3 ridings (total spending of 86% of the candidate limits), while the Liberals and NDP clearly concentrated on Outremont.

In addition to the $254,876 that could be spent by candidates across the 3 ridings, a registered party fielding 3 candidates in that set of by-elections could itself spend an additional $171,997 in support of those campaigns. The amounts spent are reported in Part 3a of the Registered Parties annual returns (you can find the details here, at the Elections Canada site, for the 2007 By-Elections; select the party you're interested in from their drop-down list once you get there).

• Again, the Conservative Party spent 92% of its party by-election spending limit. However, interestingly it split the spending mainly between Roberval – Lac-Saint-Jean and Saint-Hyacinthe – Bagot, the two seats where they wound up being more competitive.
• The Liberal Party spent just under half (46%) of its party by-election spending limit; and all but $3800 or so of that was put into Outremont.
• The NDP spent 12% of its by-election spending limit, split equally between the three ridings.
• Neither the Bloc nor the Green Party reporting reported any party-level spending on the three by-election campaigns.

Labels: Election Expenses, Sept 17 2007 By-elections

As first teased last weekend, the 2006 Census Data by federal riding has arrived at the Pundits' Guide ... and a big thank you to Paul Wells for the advance fanfare. I'm not sure but I think he may have called me a know-it-all, however in this case it might be compliment.

A couple of points to keep in mind:

• You can find the Census Data by clicking on the "Census Data" tab on the riding profile page of any riding you find when browsing or searching the database.
• OK, make that "nearly any riding you find". Right now, the 2006 and 2001 Census Data can be found for any riding in the 2003 Representation Order, but *not* for the 2001 Representation Order ridings. "What's the diff," you may ask. You'll find the full discussion here on the "Pundit Metrics" page, but it boils down to "the riding boundaries we're using now" as opposed to the ones we used before the last redistribution. So, if you searched for a riding and went to look for its Census Data but didn't find any ... you've probably got a 1996 Rep Order riding. Once I start to add in ridings for the Rep Order before that you're going to have to start paying really close attention, so get used to it now. I will eventually add in the older Census data to the older ridings, but Rome wasn't built in a day.
• To verify any of the data, or find the raw underlying numbers, look for an icon like this () on the riding profile page. Hover your mouse over it to see if it's the link for the 2001 or 2006 census, and then click on the one you want. Instantly you'll be transported to the Statistics Canada Census site for that very riding, in the census and official language of your choice.
• Once I get a bit of free time, I'll be reorganizing the Census Data section so that related census measures from both 2006 and 2001 get grouped together for easier comparison, rather than listing one whole census followed by the next.
• As well, I'll be building a search engine so you can find the Top ridings by Immigrants who arrived since 1991, or the Bottom ridings for dwellings built within the last 20 years, or whatever other top-down or bottom-up list you like.
• It's also been suggested that I add the mean and standard deviation for each measure, for each population and census. I can work on adding that, but will need to figure out where exactly to put it all.

As before when Paul linked to me the last time, I've had some very interesting and thoughtful emails, suggestions, and one very eagle-eyed bug report from his readers. Not to get all sycophantic or anything, but he has a very literate and numerate readership. Welcome, and thanks to those of you who got in touch.

Labels: Census Data

Two more candidates, including a sitting M.P., are stepping aside from the next election:

• In Surrey North, BC, the riding previously held by Independent M.P. Chuck Cadman, first-term incumbent NDP M.P. Penny Priddy has decided that the delayed election is a good opportunity to step aside from her renomination and spend time with her grandchildren.
• In Calgary Northeast, AB, Liberal candidate Dobie Yiu-Chung To's name has disappeared from the party's web-site, and a reader confirms that "life has happened" for him as well. The Liberals will now be looking for a new candidate in the riding being vacated by retiring Conservative M.P. Art Hanger.

This adds Surrey North to the list of "Ridings with Retiring Incumbents" for which we're tracking Nominations Progress over on the "Search the Database" page where it joins Calgary Northeast among others. Ironically, it's also by definition on the list of "Ridings with First-Time Incumbents" since Priddy was elected for the first time federally in 2006.

Chuck Cadman's wife, Dona Marie, is the nominated Conservative candidate in Surrey North and Kevin Pielak is nominated for the Christian Heritage Party, however no other candidates are in place there. Together with Halifax, NS, where former NDP Leader and Halifax M.P. Alexa McDonough earlier announced her resignation and only provincial Green Party leader Ryan Watson has been nominated, these are two ridings with retiring incumbents where the race is now wide open, and all parties -- especially the incumbent party -- will be putting their best foot forward in terms of candidate recruitment. These are definitely two ridings to watch.

Only Conservative candidate Devinder Shory remains in Calgary Northeast, however it has only elected different flavours of Conservatives since well before I was born (and I'm no spring chicken), so forgive me but history would suggest we're not looking at quite as open a race there, barring an upset or some kind of seismic event out west. Still, these things do happen every so often, which is after all why we're all so addicted to politics, so I'll be keeping an eye out there too.

-------------

One other passage of note: Canadian Action Party (CAP) leader Connie Fogal-Rankin has announced that she will retire at the party's upcoming convention in Ottawa, August 22-24. Voting for a replacement will proceed by a mail-in ballot afterwards, on a date on or before sometime in November 2008.

Labels: 40th General Election Nominations, Liberals, NDP, Retiring Incumbents

Events have conspired, or may conspire, to interfere with the electoral careers of a number of folks during this election window that goes on and on; and tonight we have a few more cases:

• In Sudbury, ON, family reasons have intervened, leading two-time NDP candidate Gerry McIntaggart to resign his third nomination on behalf of his party. The party has not yet announced their plans to replace him in the riding of long-time Liberal incumbent Diane Marleau.
• In Palliser, SK, two-time Conservative M.P. Dave Batters was hospitalized on Canada Day and is currently on medical leave, dealing with a serious medical situation. He is hoping for a full recovery and asking for privacy. We join with the Moose-Jaw Times Herald in honouring that request and wishing him well.

Labels: 40th General Election Nominations, Conservatives, NDP

I'm nearly done working with the 2006 Federal Electoral District Census Profiles, so they can be imported into the Pundits' Guide riding profile pages, with the percents and ranks already calculated for you.

This year Statistics Canada has added quite a few more measures to their publicly available offerings. As a tease of what's to come, here are the Top 10 Ridings by Walking or Cycling to Work.

Ridings having the highest percentages of walking or cycling to the person's usual place of work (2006 Census)

Rank	Riding	Contest	Pct Walking or Cycling
1.	Nunavut, NU	Lib-Cons	49.7%
2.	Trinity – Spadina, ON	NDP-Lib	35.5%
3.	Vancouver Centre, BC	Lib-NDP	35.2%
4.	Toronto Centre, ON	Lib-NDP	33.6%
5.	Halifax, NS	NDP-Lib	31.2%
6.	Victoria, BC	NDP-Lib	29.4%
7.	Laurier – Sainte-Marie, QC	BQ-NDP	28.8%
8.	Ottawa Centre, ON	NDP-Lib	28.6%
9.	Western Arctic, NT	NDP-Lib	28.4%
10.	Westmount – Ville-Marie, QC	Lib-Cons	26.3%

Of the other by-election ridings, Guelph, ON ranks #95 and Saint-Lambert, QC is #157. At #308/308, Vaughan, ON is the riding whose residents are least likely to walk or cycle to work. Eight of the bottom 10 ridings come from area code 905, while the other 2 are in Calgary.

To find census data for a riding, go to its riding profile page (try a "Quick Search" by part of the riding name), and then once on the page click on the tab called "Census Data".

To see the original census data, you can click on the relevant StatsCan icon under "Related Links" also on the riding profile page. I expect to have the links up to the 2006 Census source pages today, and hope to have the census data up within another day or two, so stay tuned. Then, once I get a bit more time (say at the cottage) I'll build a search engine so you can search for your favourite Top 10, Bottom 10, and anything in between.

Labels: Census Data, Fall 2008 By-elections

Just because we're in by-election mode, doesn't mean we've stopped watching general election nominations. And as first reported here last week, today Liberal Québec lieutenant Senator Céline Hervieux-Payette formally announced the appointment of party vice-president Brigitte Legault in Vaudreuil – Soulanges, QC, along with another candidate:

• In Hochelaga, QC, multilingual Montréal paralegal Diane Dicaire will face long-time Bloc Québécois M.P. Réal Ménard.

In addition, Hervieux-Payette announced that the party will select its candidate in Jeanne-Le Ber, QC at a nomination meeting scheduled for September 14.

Labels: 40th General Election Nominations, Liberals

You're probably noticing a different look to the main page of the Guide today. For those of you who've been long-time readers (like, more than six months) it may look familiar, because we're back in by-election mode here at the Pundits' Guide.

This means that the main page chart now tracks by-election nominations, and I'm showing handy links to all the by-elections resources available here at the Guide. The chart tracking nominations for the forthcoming General Election which used to be there is still available through the "Search the Database" page, in case you're looking for it. The tallies there have all been adjusted downwards slightly, you'll notice, since the by-election nominations were deleted from that list and moved to the tallies for the by-election instead.

So, a couple of points:

• Yes, I'm guessing at the date September 8, but it seems to be the best guess based on the scuttlebutt around here (see this earlier post for why) and I need a date to keep the sort orders all working; and
• Yes, I'm only listing three of the four ridings we've previously assumed would be called, given John Godfrey's decision to delay his resignation to August 1, past the deadline for including Don Valley West, ON in this round, assuming they're called on July 20 for September 8 (again, see this earlier post for why). Luckily this is the Internet, so I can always change things later if circumstances change.

As part of the Guide's by-election coverage, I'll soon be adding the 2006 Census Data from the Federal Electoral District profiles that have been recently released to the StatsCan web-site, but with the percentages and national/regional/provincial/local ranks already calculated for you. I'll also make sure all the candidates' websites are listed as they become available.

Don't forget: from the riding profile page for each riding you can also easily access that riding's page at Elections Canada, Statistics Canada, the Library of Parliament, Wikipedia, the CBC (2004 and 2006 sites), CTV, and the Election Prediction Project, just by clicking on the icons.

Also, by clicking on any candidate's name, you can also see their electoral history (if any) in any of the previous federal electoral events covered by this database so far (i.e., any election or by-election since 1997). For example, click on Westmount – Ville-Marie Conservative candidate Guy Dufort's name, and you'll see that he previously ran for the Progressive Conservative party in Hull – Aylmer in 2000, where he garnered 10% of the vote and placed third. Or click on Green candidate Claude William Genest's name to see the two other Québec ridings he's run in before. Or remind yourself where Liberal candidate Marc Garneau ran last time and how he did.

As well, I'll be writing another series of "By-Elections By the Numbers" riding profiles that use the data available at the Guide to examine the demographics, and electoral and campaign financial history of each riding (see the earlier profiles here, here, here, and here).

And, on Election Night, I'll have another By-Election Party Scorecard, and results summaries much like last time. So, stay tuned pundits, you'll have everything you need to practice your dark arts to your dark hearts' content!

Labels: Fall 2008 By-elections

John Ivison is right, and I'm wrong. When he writes about seven weeks being the earliest a by-election can be called after an M.P.'s resignation, he's counting the 11 days after the Chief Electoral Officer receives the warrant of resignation from the Speaker of the House of Commons (see FAQ at Elections Canada site), plus a five-week campaign. So, seven weeks, or close enough for jazz.

By deferring his resignation until August 1, John Godfrey has guaranteed that Don Valley West, ON will not be part of any by-elections called for any date earlier than September 22, and that's assuming that the Speaker's warrant is issued and received within six days after Friday August 1 (the Friday before a long weekend in Ontario), which is not always the case.

Remember, at this point in time, assuming Parliament is not prorogued, the House of Commons is scheduled to return on Monday, September 15.

[UPDATE] I'm oh-so-behind-the-curve on this one, as David Akin blogged last night that the expected call will come on June 20 July 20 for a Monday, September 8 by-election in just the three ridings. Time to get the Guide into by-election mode, I guess.

Labels: Don Valley West, Fall 2008 By-elections, Vacant Seats

As we count down to the expected call of four by-elections, the Green Party has nominated another candidate in one of the by-election ridings:

• In Don Valley West, ON, the Chief of the Obstetrics and Gynecology Department at the Scarborough Hospital, Georgina Wilcock, was selected at a nomination meeting last Friday to represent her party in the riding vacated by Liberal M.P. John Godfrey.

Godfrey announced he would be stepping down on July 1 of this year. However it appears his resignation has not yet taken effect, since the seat is not yet listed as vacant at the Parliamentary web-site's list of vacant seats. Thus, if we wanted to speculate (what pundits do, after all), perhaps the Prime Minister is waiting for the seat to become vacant, and then call all four by-elections on his return from the G8 meeting.

[UPDATE] Any speculation on the situation in Don Valley West, ON should take into account the reporting by John Ivison at the National Post this morning that John Godfrey will apparently not now resign until August 1. This was news to me, but if true, need only delay the call for Don Valley West by a week or so beyond the last day for calling Westmount – Ville-Marie, QC.

[FURTHER UPDATE] Ivison's column does make a small factual error that affects the calculations, however. He writes "The Tories are obliged to call a vote in the Montreal riding of Westmount on July 23 for a by-election as early as seven weeks later", however the minimum length of an election is now five weeks (and thank goodness for that, too, because the old 7-week campaigns were brutal). Thus, the Prime Minister could call a by-election for the three other seats on or before July 26 with a date of Monday September 8, and then call Don Valley West the following week for the same date. Parliament is currently scheduled to return on Monday September 15. So, there: I guess I've picked September 8 as the likely date. Now just watch events go and prove me wrong!

---------------

The Guide has been in the news again, well at least in the blogosphere, thanks to a mention in the well-read blog of The Toronto Star's Susan Delacourt, aptly named "Politics". An interesting discussion ensued, and Liberal blogger James Curran suggested an alternate calculation for the percentage of women (or presumably other) candidates, not as a percentage of candidates nominated, but as percentage of seats to be contested. Like I said, I'll have to figure out how to fit that extra calculation into the teeny tiny table, but it's now firmly on my to-do list, so thanks for the suggestion James. Now if only I could find some time ...

Labels: 40th General Election Nominations, Fall 2008 By-elections, Greens, Women Candidates

While Stéphane Dion has been campaigning for his party's "Green Shift" in Alberta, Jack Layton's party has taken the first part of the summer announcing and nominating more candidates to fill out its slate. Here are two more:

• In Don Valley West, ON, one of the by-election seats, the party will be represented by Canadian actor and ACTRA vice-president, David Sparrow.
• In Edmonton – Leduc, AB, human resources consultant and LEAF (the Women's Legal Education and Action Fund) activist, Hana Razga won a contested nomination to run against four-term Conservative M.P. James Rajotte.

With these names, two milestones have been reached by the NDP: (i) given the expected announcement of the party's candidate in Westmount-Ville Marie later today, its slate is now complete for the set of by-elections expected to be called soon, and (ii) the party, although hovering just below for sometime, has just passed the 40% threshold in women candidates.

It may seem that the Green Party and NDP are getting the lion's share of nomination write-ups at the Pundits' Guide these days, but that's for the simple reason that the Conservatives (85%), the Bloc Québécois (81% in Québec only), and to a slightly lesser extent the Liberals (76%), already have the vast majority of their general election slate of candidates in place. The NDP is sitting at 62% nominated, and the Greens are at 44% (they claim this number is low, but I just can't track down all the names, although it is time for another scavenge hunt).

If you have a name of a nominated candidate that's not in the Pundits' Guide, please do send it along to me here.

Labels: 40th General Election Nominations, NDP, Women Candidates

The Bloc Québécois now has candidates in place for both of the Québec ridings expected to be called soon, having already selected Josée Beaudin in a contested nomination for Saint-Lambert, QC, and now having announced that:

• Recent McGill University graduate and business development officer, Charles Larivée, will carry the party colours in Westmount – Ville-Marie, QC.

Labels: 40th General Election Nominations, Bloc Québécois, Fall 2008 By-elections

Back from Alberta and B.C., and yes Paul I actually did hear some carbon tax ads on the radio out there: a radio version of one of these, and this one, both on Classic 101 FM from Vancouver, which reached all the way up to somewhere between New Denver and Nakusp in Conservative M.P. Jim Abbott's riding of Kootenay – Columbia, BC.

I also caught what will probably be the last (second last?) Canada Day parade of retiring Wild Rose, AB Conservative M.P. Myron Thompson in the Village of Lake Louise (see below). They were giving away purple scarves of some kind, but I didn't get one. The town had lost power for 14 hours the night before due to an electrical storm, but this didn't keep the local M.P. from his patriotic duties ... in one of the few occasions we will ever see a true blue conservative wearing red!

While I was away, however, there were a few nomination developments that I can report now:

• The Conservatives in Miramichi, NB are looking for a new candidate to run against long-time Liberal M.P. Charles Hubbard, now that their candidate Bill Tozer has stepped down to pursue a business project in the area.
• A reader wrote to pass along the news that National Vice President (French), Brigitte Legault, has been chosen the Liberal Party's candidate in Vaudreuil – Soulanges, QC, where she will face two-term Bloc Québécois M.P. Meili Faille.
• A closer look at daveberta.ca's updated list of Alberta candidates has also yielded the name of healthcare provider Kelly Bickford, who will be returning as the NDP candidate in Red Deer, AB, the seat being vacated by retiring Conservative M.P. Bob Mills.

Other nomination tidbits:

• Liberals in West Vancouver – Sunshine Coast – Sea to Sky Country, BC have been meeting with a number of prospective candidates to replace Independent M.P. Blair Wilson as their candidate in the next election, in anticipation of a contested nomination.
• Whoever that candidate winds up being, it won't be UBC Professor Michael Byers, who has announced he will be running for the NDP nomination in Vancouver Centre, BC, recently freed up by the resignation of former candidate Randall Garrison. Should Byers win, he will face off against long-time Liberal M.P. Hedy Fry.
• New Democrats in the riding of Westmount – Ville-Marie, QC, where a by-election must be called within weeks to fill the seat vacated by long-time Liberal M.P. Lucienne Robillard, are busy speculating on the rumours that CBC Radio Noon host, Anne Lagacé-Dowson, may be one of the leading contenders for that nomination.

Finally, one anonymous reader wrote to correct my French in the version français of the "Browse Parties" page. I've made the correction wherever I could find the boo-boo, and will continue to hunt down other occurrences. The notes, updates and corrections from everyone are very much appreciated, believe me, so thanks again.

Labels: 40th General Election Nominations, Conservatives, Liberals, NDP

Although the scope of this website is for now usually limited to federal elections, your Guide is visiting Alberta and British Columbia this Canada Day long weekend, and happened across an excellent series of features in the Calgary Herald that readers might find interesting.

"Black Mark: Why We Don't Vote" is an in-depth look at why voter turnout (that's the percent of people on the voters list who actually cast a vote) hit an all-time low of 41.3% in Alberta during the recent provincial election.

To quote from the lead story, penned by Renata D'Aliesio and Jason Fekete:

Alberta gave the country Senate reform, spawned several historical political movements and helped women gain the right to vote.

But can the province with the lowest turnout in Canada rescue itself from a disturbing new trend -- where more than half of its population decides not to mark an X at the ballot box? This is the question confounding politicians, pundits and pollsters as the electorate grapples with the stark fact that six in 10 Albertans didn't vote in the March election. It's believed to be the worst showing ever in a provincial campaign.

Leaders from municipal councils to the House of Commons worry a troubling trend is emerging across the country as more people disengage from the democratic process.

"We Canadians sometimes take our democracy for granted, but we don't realize how unique we are," Prime Minister Stephen Harper told the Herald in an editorial column to be published Sunday.

The Prime Minister was joined by Preston Manning, and other prominent Albertans and academics in contributing their perspectives on why turnout was low in the last provincial election, and how it might be increased, and included the results of a poll commissioned by Elections Alberta exploring people's reasons for non-participation.

So, how can we use the Pundits' Guide to look at Voter Turnout in Federal Elections?

• Nationally -- The summary chart at the top of the "Browse Elections" page shows us the three relevant numbers for all the general elections in the guide:
• (a) "Electors" - the number of people eligible to vote, by virtue of citizenship, residency and age,
• (b) "Voted" - the number of electors who voted, and
• (c) "% TO" - where TO stands for "Turnout"; it is calculated as (b) - Voted divided by (a) - Electors and then multipled by 100 (for further information, see the description on the Pundit Metrics page).
• Broken down by Electoral Event -- Still on the "Browse Elections" page, and looking down the left-hand column of the "Election Summary Data" tab, you will see the Percent Turnout (% TO) for every electoral event, including by-elections as well as general elections. For example, the electoral events with the lowest turnouts in recent history (that means with the lowest turnout in this database, i.e., since 1997) were:
• the June 16, 2003 By-elections (at just 25.7%) in the ridings of QC: Lévis-et-Chutes-de-la-Chaudière (23.5%), and QC: Témiscamingue (29.2%)
• the November 15, 1999 By-Elections (at 28.1% TO) in the ridings of ON: York West (27.4%), QC: Hull – Aylmer (25.4%), QC: Mount Royal (27.5%), and SK: Saskatoon – Rosetown – Biggar (33.7%), and
• the March 17, 2008 By-elections (28.0%), which have been covered extensively in this blog already.
• Broken down by Region, Province or lower -- Still on the "Browse Elections" page, notice the drop-downs and list-boxes to the left of the chart. Select a province from the drop-down list, and notice that all the calculations have been re-done for just that province (let's pick Prince Edward Island, for example). Turnout there jumped from 70.8% in the 2004 General Election to 73.2% in the 2006 General. Now let's select a different province (I guess we ought to look at Alberta then). Notice that turnout in federal elections in Alberta has varied between 58.5% and 61.9%. And in fact, the by-election that returned Stephen Harper to Ottawa as an M.P. showed only a 23% turnout in the lone Alberta riding voting that day, namely Harper's riding of AB: Calgary Southwest (although the Liberal party did not field a candidate in that race).
• Broken down by Riding -- The riding profile page for any riding shows the history of its voter turnout for each electoral event. For example, Lac-Saint-Louis, QC on the West Island of Montréal had the highest turnout in 1997, Cardigan, PE had the highest turnout in both the 2000 and 2004 General Elections, while Nepean – Carleton, ON, currently represented by Conservative M.P. Pierre Poilievre, had the highest voter turnout in the 2006 General Election.

Anyway, I can see that it would be nice to have a Turnout by Province by Electoral Event cross-tabulation table somewhere (likely the "Search Data" page), for comparisons' sake. There also needs to be a new Election Pundit Query about ridings with the highest and lowest turnouts. For now, have fun exploring the data on turnout currently available throughout the Pundits' Guide.

Labels: 2_How to Search the Database, Voter Turnout