This is the third part in the series ... Part I is found here and Part II is found here, while the list of Conservative candidates identified as participants in the in-out advertising plan ... which I have also just corrected today ... can be found here. Today's Hill Times has an article listing 11 of the 17 candidates who apparently received a rebate of election expenses prior to the commencement of the Elections Canada review/investigation. The Hill Times reports that all 11 of the elected MPs on the list were in that group, plus 6 other unsuccessful candidates (which it did not name).

[And with this blog-post, I'm going to conclude and set aside the listing of lists relating to election expenditures in the last elections, so I can get back to some more data gathering for the next election and some more analysis and search features for the Guide's users.]

The third main activity claimed to be a common practice of all political parties by Conservative Party's political operations officer Geoff Donald in his October 2007 affadavit, but for which he asserted only the Conservative Party was being criticized, is the claiming of local advertising expenses that were in some way "unidentified". The affadavit lists the names of 45 Liberal, Bloc and NDP candidates whose returns are said to include such expenses, but although exhibits were attached to the affadavit which probably indicated which election those expenses were incurred in, that piece of information was not included in the main affadavit. Thus, I have included the latest general election for each of the candidates below.

Curiously only one of the candidates named in this category has a last name starting with the letter 'N' or higher (you notice these kinds of things working with lists in the context of a database). We can guess that the review of candidate returns was perhaps terminated somewhere in the middle of this work. I haven't run an analysis of candidates by first letter of last name, but believe we're safe in assuming a pretty even distribution there.

List of 45 Liberal, NDP and BQ candidates named by the Conservatives as having unidentified local advertising expenses

(courtesy Stephen Taylor of the Blogging Tories, at stephentaylor.ca)

Riding		Elec: Candidate	Contest
QC	Gatineau	2006 GE: LEVESQUE, Anne (F)	BQ-Lib
QC	Trois-Rivières	2004 GE: GUINDON, Jean-Éric (M)	BQ-Lib
QC	Manicouagan	2006 GE: DUCASSE, Pierre (M)	BQ-Cons
QC	Hull – Aylmer	2006 GE: LALIBERTÉ, Pierre (M)	Lib-BQ
QC	Notre-Dame-de-Grâce – Lachine	2006 GE: DESLAURIERS, Peter (M)	Lib-BQ
QC	Saint-Laurent – Cartierville	2006 GE: DION, Stéphane (M)	Lib-BQ
NS	Sydney – Victoria	2006 GE: EDWARDS, John Hugh (M)	Lib-NDP
ON	Beaches – East York	2006 GE: CHURLEY, Marilyn (F)	Lib-NDP
ON	Hamilton Mountain	2004 GE: CHARLTON, Chris (F)	Lib-NDP
ON	Kenora	2004 GE: BARCLAY, Susan (F)	Lib-NDP
ON	Nickel Belt	2006 GE: GRAVELLE, Claude (M)	Lib-NDP
ON	Sudbury	2006 GE: MARLEAU, Diane (F)	Lib-NDP
ON	Trinity – Spadina	2004 GE: CHOW, Olivia (F)	Lib-NDP
NL	Humber – St. Barbe – Baie Verte	2006 GE: BYRNE, Gerry (M)	Lib-Cons
PE	Egmont	2006 GE: MCGUIRE, Joe (M)	Lib-Cons
PE	Malpeque	2006 GE: EASTER, Wayne (M)	Lib-Cons
NB	Beauséjour	2006 GE: LEBLANC, Dominic (M)	Lib-Cons
NB	Moncton – Riverview – Dieppe	2006 GE: MURPHY, Brian (M)	Lib-Cons
ON	Ajax – Pickering	2006 GE: HOLLAND, Mark (M)	Lib-Cons
ON	Huron – Bruce	2006 GE: ROBERTSON, Grant (M)	Lib-Cons
ON	Kenora	2006 GE: BARCLAY, Susan (F)	Lib-Cons
ON	Parry Sound – Muskoka	2004 GE: MITCHELL, Andy (M)	Lib-Cons
SK	Desnethé – Missinippi – Churchill River	2006 GE: JACKSON, Anita (F)	Lib-Cons
SK	Wascana	2006 GE: GOODALE, Ralph (M)	Lib-Cons
AB	Edmonton Centre	2004 GE: MCMASTER, Meghan (F)	Lib-Cons
NS	Halifax	2006 GE: MACKINNON, Martin (M)	NDP-Lib
ON	Hamilton Centre	2006 GE: CHRISTOPHERSON, David (M)	NDP-Lib
ON	Hamilton East – Stoney Creek	2006 GE: MARSTON, Wayne (M)	NDP-Lib
ON	Hamilton Mountain	2006 GE: CHARLTON, Chris (F)	NDP-Lib
ON	Toronto – Danforth	2006 GE: LAYTON, Jack (M)	NDP-Lib
ON	Trinity – Spadina	2006 GE: CHOW, Olivia (F)	NDP-Lib
BC	Burnaby – New Westminster	2006 GE: JULIAN, Peter (M)	NDP-Lib
BC	British Columbia Southern Interior	2006 GE: ATAMANENKO, Alex T. (M)	NDP-Lib
QC	Louis-Hébert	2006 GE: BLANCHETTE, Denis (M)	Cons-BQ
QC	Pontiac	2006 GE: BRAULT, Céline (F)	Cons-BQ
NL	St. John's East	2006 GE: ANTLE, Paul (M)	Cons-Lib
ON	Nepean – Carleton	2006 GE: GAFFNEY, Michael (M)	Cons-Lib
ON	Parry Sound – Muskoka	2006 GE: MITCHELL, Andy (M)	Cons-Lib
AB	Edmonton East	2006 GE: CHAPMAN, Arlene (F)	Cons-Lib
BC	Delta – Richmond East	2004 GE: LEONHARDT, Shelley (F)	Cons-Lib
BC	Kamloops – Thompson – Cariboo	2004 GE: CARROLL, Brian (M)	Cons-Lib
SK	Regina – Lumsden – Lake Centre	2006 GE: ANDERSON, Gary (M)	Cons-NDP
SK	Regina – Qu'Appelle	2006 GE: HERLE, Allyce (F)	Cons-NDP
BC	Kootenay – Columbia	2006 GE: BURWELL, Jhim (M)	Cons-NDP
BC	Prince George – Peace River	2006 GE: BAUDER, Nathan (M)	Cons-NDP

Labels: 38th (2004) General Election, 39th (2006) General Election, Election Expenses, Election Finance

Here is the list associated with the second activity described by Geoff Donald in his affadavit (see my earlier blog post here).

List of 28 Liberal, NDP and BQ candidates named by the Conservatives as participating in reciprocal transfers of funds between central and candidate campaigns

(courtesy Stephen Taylor of the Blogging Tories, at stephentaylor.ca)

Riding		Elec: Candidate	Contest
NB	Madawaska – Restigouche	2006 GE: MARTIN, Rodolphe (M)	Lib-Cons
PE	Malpeque	2006 GE: EASTER, Wayne (M)	Lib-Cons
NS	Sackville – Eastern Shore	2006 GE: STOFFER, Peter (M)	NDP-Lib
BC	British Columbia Southern Interior	2006 GE: ATAMANENKO, Alex T. (M)	NDP-Lib
BC	Vancouver East	2006 GE: DAVIES, Libby (F)	NDP-Lib
BC	Vancouver Island North	2006 GE: BELL, Catherine J. (F)	NDP-Cons
BC	Fleetwood – Port Kells	2006 GE: BELL, Barry (M)	Cons-Lib
QC	Mégantic – L'Érable	2006 GE: CORRIVEAU, Yvan (M)	Cons-BQ
BC	Pitt Meadows – Maple Ridge – Mission	2006 GE: BOCKING, Mike (M)	Cons-NDP
BC	Saanich – Gulf Islands	2006 GE: BURGIS, Jennifer (F)	Cons-NDP
NL	Random – Burin – St. George's	2004 GE: MCGRATH, Des (M)	Lib-NDP
NS	Dartmouth – Cole Harbour	2004 GE: MACALPINE-GILLIS, Susan (F)	Lib-NDP
ON	Hamilton Mountain	2004 GE: PHINNEY, Beth (F)	Lib-NDP
ON	Barrie	2004 GE: CARROLL, Aileen (F)	Lib-Cons
ON	Don Valley West	2004 GE: GODFREY, John (M)	Lib-Cons
ON	Glengarry – Prescott – Russell	2004 GE: CAUVIER, Martin (M)	Lib-Cons
ON	Oak Ridges – Markham	2004 GE: TEMELKOVSKI, Lui (M)	Lib-Cons
ON	Ottawa South	2004 GE: MAZIGH, Monia (F)	Lib-Cons
ON	Ottawa West – Nepean	2004 GE: CATTERALL, Marlene (F)	Lib-Cons
QC	Honoré-Mercier	2004 GE: RODRIGUEZ, Pablo (M)	Lib-BQ
QC	Notre-Dame-de-Grâce – Lachine	2004 GE: JENNINGS, Marlene (F)	Lib-BQ
QC	Pontiac	2004 GE: LEDUC, L. Hubert (M)	Lib-BQ
QC	Saint-Laurent – Cartierville	2004 GE: DION, Stéphane (M)	Lib-BQ
QC	Québec	2004 GE: GAGNON, Christiane (F)	BQ-Lib
ON	Hamilton Centre	2004 GE: CHRISTOPHERSON, David (M)	NDP-Lib
ON	Windsor – Tecumseh	2004 GE: LIMOGES, Rick (M)	NDP-Lib
ON	Simcoe – Grey	2004 GE: BONWICK, Paul (M)	Cons-Lib
AB	Calgary West	2004 GE: PATTERSON, Tim (M)	Cons-Lib

Labels: 38th (2004) General Election, 39th (2006) General Election, Election Expenses, Election Finance

From Stephen Taylor's blog, the "Donald Affadavit" is an affadavit sworn by Conservative political operations officer Geoff Donald in October 2007, as part of the civil proceedings between the Conservative Party and Elections Canada.

In it, Mr. Donald detailed cases he believed would illustrate that there are three different aspects of activities, claimed to be common practices of all political parties, but for which Elections Canada is targetting only the Conservative Party. The three activities are: (i) grouped ad buys with "national" content, arranged by national campaign staff, (ii) reciprocal transfers of funds between the central and local campaigns or electoral district associations (EDAs), and (iii) unidentified advertising and publicity line items in candidate election expense returns. The cases spanned both the 2004 and 2006 General Elections.

There are a lot of names and ridings in that affadavit, which are proving time-consuming to document here in one sitting. Thus, first I offer the "Ad Buys". Tomorrow, I'll round things out with the "Transfers" and "Unidentified advertising".

As with the Conservative list of yesterday, clicking on the riding name will take you to the riding profile page (financial metrics pane) for that riding.

List of 59 Liberal and NDP candidates named by the Conservatives as participating in group advertising purchases containing possible national content

(courtesy Stephen Taylor of the Blogging Tories, at stephentaylor.ca)

Riding		Elec: Candidate	Contest
NB	Beauséjour	2006 GE: LEBLANC, Dominic (M)	Lib-Cons
NB	Fredericton	2006 GE: SCOTT, Andy (M)	Lib-Cons
NB	Madawaska – Restigouche	2006 GE: D'AMOURS, Jean-Claude (J.C.) (M)	Lib-Cons
NB	Miramichi	2006 GE: HUBBARD, Charles Isaac (M)	Lib-Cons
NB	Moncton – Riverview – Dieppe	2006 GE: MURPHY, Brian (M)	Lib-Cons
NB	Saint John	2006 GE: ZED, Paul (M)	Lib-Cons
NB	Fundy Royal	2006 GE: HUNTER, Eldon (M)	Cons-Lib
NB	New Brunswick Southwest	2006 GE: SMITH, Stanley John (M)	Cons-Lib
NB	Tobique – Mactaquac	2006 GE: SAVOY, Andy (M)	Cons-Lib
NB	Acadie – Bathurst	2006 GE: MERSEREAU, Marcelle (F)	NDP-Lib
ON	Trinity – Spadina	2006 GE: CHOW, Olivia (F)	NDP-Lib
BC	Burnaby – Douglas	2006 GE: SIKSAY, Bill (M)	NDP-Lib
BC	Burnaby – New Westminster	2006 GE: JULIAN, Peter (M)	NDP-Lib
BC	British Columbia Southern Interior	2006 GE: ATAMANENKO, Alex T. (M)	NDP-Lib
BC	Vancouver East	2006 GE: DAVIES, Libby (F)	NDP-Lib
BC	Victoria	2006 GE: SAVOIE, Denise (F)	NDP-Lib
BC	Nanaimo – Cowichan	2006 GE: CROWDER, Jean A. (F)	NDP-Cons
BC	New Westminster – Coquitlam	2006 GE: BLACK, Dawn (F)	NDP-Cons
BC	Vancouver Island North	2006 GE: BELL, Catherine J. (F)	NDP-Cons
SK	Blackstrap	2006 GE: KOSSICK, Don (M)	Cons-NDP
SK	Palliser	2006 GE: DUSEL, Jo-Anne (F)	Cons-NDP
SK	Regina – Lumsden – Lake Centre	2006 GE: KOVATCH, Maurice (Moe) (M)	Cons-NDP
SK	Regina – Qu'Appelle	2006 GE: NYSTROM, Lorne Edmund (M)	Cons-NDP
SK	Saskatoon – Humboldt	2006 GE: MASON, Andrew (M)	Cons-NDP
SK	Saskatoon – Rosetown – Biggar	2006 GE: WIEBE, Nettie (F)	Cons-NDP
BC	Nanaimo – Alberni	2006 GE: UPPAL, Manjeet (M)	Cons-NDP
BC	Saanich – Gulf Islands	2006 GE: BURGIS, Jennifer (F)	Cons-NDP
SK	Saskatoon – Wanuskewin	2006 GE: MADDIN, Jim (M)	Cons-Lib
BC	Vancouver Centre	2006 GE: ROBINSON, Svend J. (M)	Lib-NDP
BC	Vancouver Kingsway	2006 GE: WADDELL, Ian (M)	Lib-NDP
SK	Wascana	2006 GE: YUM, Helen (F)	Lib-Cons
AB	Calgary East	2004 GE: MAXIM, James (M)	Cons-Lib
AB	Calgary Centre-North	2004 GE: MCCLUSKY, Cathy (F)	Cons-Lib
AB	Calgary Northeast	2004 GE: MUTI, Dale (M)	Cons-Lib
AB	Calgary – Nose Hill	2004 GE: HANEY, Ted (M)	Cons-Lib
AB	Calgary Centre	2004 GE: TURNBULL, Julia (F)	Cons-Lib
AB	Calgary Southeast	2004 GE: TANNER, Jim (M)	Cons-Lib
AB	Calgary Southwest	2004 GE: ROBERTS, Avalon (F)	Cons-Lib
AB	Calgary West	2004 GE: THOMPSON, Justin (M)	Cons-Lib
AB	Crowfoot	2004 GE: CAMPBELL, Adam (M)	Cons-Lib
AB	Fort McMurray – Athabasca	2004 GE: FAULKNER, Doug (M)	Cons-Lib
AB	Edmonton – Mill Woods – Beaumont	2004 GE: KILGOUR, David (M)	Lib-Cons
AB	Edmonton Centre	2004 GE: MCLELLAN, Anne (F)	Lib-Cons
AB	Edmonton East	2004 GE: BETHEL, John (M)	Cons-Lib
AB	Edmonton – Leduc	2004 GE: KING, Bruce (M)	Cons-Lib
AB	Edmonton – St. Albert	2004 GE: SAEED, Moe (M)	Cons-Lib
AB	Edmonton – Sherwood Park	2004 GE: TOWNS, Maureen (F)	Cons-Lib
AB	Edmonton – Spruce Grove	2004 GE: MATHER, Neil (M)	Cons-Lib
AB	Edmonton – Strathcona	2004 GE: CARLSON, Debby (F)	Cons-Lib
AB	Lethbridge	2004 GE: NICOL, Ken (M)	Cons-Lib
AB	Macleod	2004 GE: SHADE, Chris (M)	Cons-Lib
AB	Medicine Hat	2004 GE: COCKS, Bill (M)	Cons-Lib
AB	Peace River	2004 GE: CARLSTROM, Lyle (M)	Cons-Lib
AB	Red Deer	2004 GE: KURATA, Luke (M)	Cons-Lib
AB	Vegreville – Wainwright	2004 GE: STEWART, Duff (M)	Cons-Lib
AB	Westlock – St. Paul	2004 GE: DION, Joe (M)	Cons-Lib
AB	Wetaskiwin	2004 GE: BONNETT, Rick (M)	Cons-Lib
AB	Wild Rose	2004 GE: STEWART, Judy (F)	Cons-Lib
AB	Yellowhead	2004 GE: CROSSLEY, Peter (M)	Cons-Lib

Labels: 38th (2004) General Election, 39th (2006) General Election, Election Expenses, Election Finance

In a blog-post earlier today, Aaron Wherry of "The Commons" at Macleans.ca transcribed a list of 65 of the 2006 Conservative candidates identified by Liberal M.P. Dominic LeBlanc as being possible persons of interest in the legal dispute between Elections Canada and the Conservative Party.

To be helpful, I've further transposed that list here, added hyperlinks to the Riding Financial Metrics pages here at the Pundits' Guide, and re-organized them by the party contest in 2006.

If anyone knows who the other two candidates might be (I've been reading 67, but only count 65 here), drop me a line and I'll add them.

Also, for the sake of balance and comparison, I'll now be looking for the names of the examples the Conservative Party gave of transfers in other parties, but again if anyone can point me in the right direction on that score as well, they'll be posted here sooner.

[UPDATE: I believe, based on some reader correspondence, the print edition of the Globe & Mail and a CBC television story from last night that the other two are Liberato Martelli in Bourassa, and Patrick Robert in Gatineau. Those two names have been added below.]

[FURTHER UPDATE: I also notice that Stephen Taylor and Steve Janke have posted documents from the Conservatives about other cases of transfers, so I'll document any names I find there in a separate post tonight.]

[FINAL UPDATE: An alert reader has drawn my attention to this CP story from last week, which had the complete and correct list from the Elections Commissioner's warrant documents. In fact, Liberato Martelli in Bourassa was not the 67th name, Garreth McDonald from Winnipeg North was. The list below has been amended accordingly.]

List of Conservative candidates named by the Liberals as participating in election finance transfers

(courtesy Aaron Wherry, "The Commons" at macleans.ca)

Riding		Cons. candidate	Contest
QC	Beauce	BERNIER, Maxime (M)	Cons-BQ
QC	Beauport – Limoilou	BOUCHER, Sylvie (F)	Cons-BQ
QC	Charlesbourg – Haute-Saint-Charles	PETIT, Daniel (M)	Cons-BQ
QC	Lévis – Bellechasse	BLANEY, Steven (M)	Cons-BQ
QC	Lotbinière – Chutes-de-la-Chaudière	GOURDE, Jacques (M)	Cons-BQ
QC	Louis-Hébert	HARVEY, Luc (M)	Cons-BQ
QC	Louis-Saint-Laurent	VERNER, Josée (F)	Cons-BQ
QC	Mégantic – L'Érable	PARADIS, Christian (M)	Cons-BQ
QC	Pontiac	CANNON, Lawrence (M)	Cons-BQ
ON	Sarnia – Lambton	DAVIDSON, Patricia (Pat) A. (F)	Cons-Lib
BC	Cariboo – Prince George	HARRIS, Richard (Dick) (M)	Cons-Lib
BC	Kelowna – Lake Country	CANNAN, Ronald D.E. (M)	Cons-Lib
BC	Okanagan – Coquihalla	DAY, Stockwell B. (M)	Cons-Lib
SK	Cypress Hills – Grasslands	ANDERSON, David L. (Cons) (M)	Cons-NDP
BC	Kootenay – Columbia	ABBOTT, Jim (M)	Cons-NDP
BC	Okanagan – Shuswap	MAYES, Colin (M)	Cons-NDP
BC	Prince George – Peace River	HILL, Jay D. (M)	Cons-NDP
NL	Bonavista – Gander – Grand Falls – Windsor	HYNES, Aaron (M)	Lib-Cons
NL	Humber – St. Barbe – Baie Verte	PELLEY JR., Cyril (M)	Lib-Cons
NL	Labrador	GOUDIE, Joseph (M)	Lib-Cons
NL	Random – Burin – St. George's	DOWNEY, Cynthia (F)	Lib-Cons
PE	Malpeque	NOBLE, George (M)	Lib-Cons
NB	Beauséjour	LEGER, Omer (M)	Lib-Cons
NB	Moncton – Riverview – Dieppe	DOUCET, Charles (M)	Lib-Cons
QC	Lac-Saint-Louis	PAINE, Andrea (F)	Lib-Cons
QC	Mount Royal	DRABKIN, Neil Martin (M)	Lib-Cons
QC	Pierrefonds – Dollard	RAE, Don (M)	Lib-Cons
ON	Kitchener Centre	CAGE, Steven (M)	Lib-Cons
ON	Scarborough Centre	JAMES, Roxanne L. (F)	Lib-Cons
ON	Vaughan	MAJKOT, Richard (M)	Lib-Cons
SK	Desnethé – Missinippi – Churchill River	HARRISON, Jeremy E. (M)	Lib-Cons
NS	Dartmouth – Cole Harbour	CAMPBELL, Robert A. (M)	Lib-NDP
NS	Halifax West	KHOSLA, Rakesh (M)	Lib-NDP
ON	Algoma – Manitoulin – Kapuskasing	WEST, Ian (M)	Lib-NDP
ON	Davenport	RODRIGUES, Theresa (F)	Lib-NDP
ON	Thunder Bay – Rainy River	LESKOWSKI, David (M)	Lib-NDP
ON	York South – Weston	HALICKI, Stephen (M)	Lib-NDP
BC	Esquimalt – Juan de Fuca	DESOUZA, Troy (M)	Lib-NDP
BC	Vancouver Kingsway	WONG, Kanman (M)	Lib-NDP
QC	Bourassa	MARTELLI, Liberato (M)	Lib-BQ
QC	Hull – Aylmer	POIRIER, Gilles (M)	Lib-BQ
QC	Notre-Dame-de-Grace-Lachine	MACKENZIE, Allen F. (M)	Lib-BQ
QC	Saint-Laurent – Cartierville	ALAM, Ishrat (F)	Lib-BQ
BC	Burnaby – Douglas	DRAZENOVIC, George (M)	NDP-Lib
BC	Burnaby – New Westminster	DALTON, Marc (M)	NDP-Lib
BC	Vancouver East	PAGTAKHAN, Elizabeth M. (F)	NDP-Lib
MB	Winnipeg Centre	STERZER, Helen (F)	NDP-Lib
MB	Winnipeg North	MCDONALD, Garreth (M)	NDP-Lib
ON	London – Fanshawe	MAILER, Dan (M)	NDP-Lib
ON	Parkdale – High Park	KLUFAS, Jurij (M)	NDP-Lib
ON	Timmins – James Bay	GRAHAM, Ken (M)	NDP-Lib
ON	Toronto – Danforth	CLAUSEN, Kren (M)	NDP-Lib
ON	Trinity – Spadina	GOLDSTEIN, Sam (M)	NDP-Lib
ON	Windsor West	TESHUBA, Alfonso (M)	NDP-Lib
NS	Halifax	HOUSE, Andrew (M)	NDP-Lib
BC	Nanaimo – Cowichan	SOWDEN, Norm (M)	NDP-Cons
QC	Argenteuil – Papineau – Mirabel	COURVILLE, Suzanne (F)	BQ-Cons
QC	Bas-Richelieu – Nicolet – Bécancour	HÉLIE-LAMBERT, Marie-Ève (F)	BQ-Cons
QC	Compton – Stanstead	CALDWELL, Gary (M)	BQ-Cons
QC	Drummond	PINEAULT, Jean-Marie (M)	BQ-Cons
QC	Laurentides – Labelle	BEAUREGARD, Jean-Serge (M)	BQ-Cons
QC	Montmorency – Charlevoix – Haute-Côte-Nord	LABERGE, Yves (M)	BQ-Cons
QC	Québec	BOISVERT, Frédérik (M)	BQ-Cons
QC	Richmond – Arthabaska	LANDRY, Jean (M)	BQ-Cons
QC	Shefford	LAMBERT, Jean (M)	BQ-Cons
QC	Sherbrooke	NADEAU, Marc (M)	BQ-Cons
QC	Gatineau	ROBERT, Patrick (M)	BQ-Lib
QC	Portneuf – Jacques-Cartier	BRUCE, Howard M. (M)	Ind-BQ

Labels: 39th (2006) General Election, Election Expenses, Election Finance

In light of the past week's news, it is quite timely (although certainly coincidental) that the big chunk of work involved in showing party spending limits and expenditures is starting to be ready for prime time.

I have now placed a "Party Stats" table on the "Browse Parties" page, which becomes visible when either a Party and/or an Electoral Event is selected. For example,

• click here to see the Liberal Party's general election spending since 1997 (you can then switch to any party you like), or
• click here to see all parties' spending in the 2006 By-elections in Repentigny, QC and London North Centre, ON (and afterwards you can switch to any Electoral Event you wish)

A couple of things to remember:

• Parties ("registered parties") are assigned spending limits based on the number of electors on the voters list in the riding(s) in which they nominate candidates, for both general elections and by-elections.
• In the former case, their spending is reported on their election return; in the latter it is a special sub-section of their annual financial report.
• A party must earn 2% of the vote nationally, or 5% in the riding(s) it contests in order to be eligible for a rebate of its election expenditures.
• Candidates have a separate spending limit, and must earn 10% of the vote (15% prior to 2004) in order to be eligible for a rebate of their election expenses.

... and a few more points to take note of:

• Because these are aggregate numbers for each Party, for each Election, they do not change as you modify your query to drill down on province, region, etc. [UPDATE: Yes, they do now; at least on the right-hand side.] (On the other hand, if you need to know what the total candidate spending limits are for a sub-national region or province, etc. , then the Browse Elections page is the place you want to be.)
• The candidate expenditure data has been entered for 2004 and 2006, and as many of the by-elections as I could. However in the case of 2004 and 2006 (see earlier blog posts on this subject), not all the candidates' returns have been reviewed by Elections Canada ... we can see some of the reasons for that this past week. If a return had not been reviewed, I entered the data "as submitted" by the candidates (and it appears on the riding financial metrics page in italics). Thus the totals for candidate spending here reflect a sum of the best data available for each candidate. I will make any additional updates in due course.
• The party and candidate rebate data has not been completely entered ... and actually I'm still looking for some of it. Nevertheless, the functionality is here now, so as the data gets added, it will become available to use, and totals will update accordingly.

A couple of metrics have been added to the tables:

• "Party % Spent" and "Cand % Spent": These numbers reflect the amount spent (either by the registered party or the candidate) as a percentage of their valid limit ... i.e., for that party and/or candidate. In other words, a party might not have run a full slate: thus it won't have a full limit. The "Party % Spent" for the Bloc Québécois in this case is the percentage of their limit (which is based on running only 75 candidates), not of the national limit for 308 ridings.
• "# > 75%" and "# > 50%": These metrics show the number of ridings in which the party's candidates spent 75% or more (and 50% or more) of their candidate expense limit. This is a rough indicator of how serious a campaign was run in those constituencies. Surprise upsets can sometimes occur that see the winner spend less than 50% of the limit, but incumbents would rarely spend less than 75% to keep their seat ... especially the first time they are defending it.

I am thinking about how best to add the rest of the party financial metrics to the site's existing structure, for maximum ease of use. However, stay tuned in the coming days for many new party financial metrics, such as "Party Spent per Vote", "Total Spent per Seat + Second", "Party Spent per Candidate", etc., etc.

Labels: Election Expenses, Election Finance

Just a short note to say that the "Report an Error on This Page" feature which had stopped working during an upgrade of server software is now working again ... and I've already received some emails this evening as a result.

I apologize for any annoyance this may have caused anyone earlier (kind of ironic to have an error in the "report an error" part, eh!). Please take this as an invitation to send along any errors you do notice in the data, and I'll undertake to have them corrected as soon as possible.

Labels: 2_How to Search the Database

I've added some new "Nominations Progress" queries on the Search the Database page tonight, which will help readers follow the parties' preparations in several different categories of "ridings to watch".

The media love "ridings to watch", because picking a few of them helps boil down a big complicated story of 308 ridings into a few colourful local scrimmages. But what makes a riding worth watching?

• Professor Michael Geist has identified 27 ridings containing universities that were previously won by 10% or less as ones to target in his Digital Copyright campaign, for example.
• The Hill Times wrote this past February about how parties might be targetting the 49 ridings previously won by 5% of less, and called them "swing" ridings.

The trouble with these approaches is that they assume past voting behaviour in a riding can predict future voting behaviour or at least future electoral jeopardy. Demonstrably this is not the case when a government changes hands, at least not in every riding.

"Swing" ridings, in my view and contrary to what the Hill Times suggested earlier, are not necessarily "close" ridings, but rather ridings that change hands when the government changes (aka "bellwether ridings"). I don't have a dataset spanning enough elections to determine which they all are, but anecdotally the most commonly identified "swing" ridings in English Canada are Peterborough, ON and Ottawa West-Nepean, ON (both currently held by Conservatives).

I can say, though, that being a close riding in the previous election did not necessarily predict a seat changing hands party-wise in the next election, because I ran an analysis myself not long after that story ran. Only half of the ones that were close in 2006 had been close in 2004, and more ridings that wound up changing hands had been won by > 5% than by <.

This is why I prefer indicators that look at incumbency and competitiveness between parties, rather than simply "close margins". But I do love a good race too, so today I'm adding a few new queries and therefore a few more perspectives to the two already identified under Queries for Current Election(s). In order of potential volatility and therefore excitement, I would rank them as follows:

• Nominations Progress in Ridings with Retiring Incumbents
• Nominations Progress in Ridings with First-Time Incumbents
• Nominations Progress in Ridings with the Closest 4-Way Races (MargPct MargPct_1_to_4 <= 25%)
• Nominations Progress in Ridings with the Closest 3-Way Races (MargPct MargPct_1_to_3 <= 15%)
• Nominations Progress in Ridings with Close Races (MargPct <= 5%)

I've also improved on the earlier versions by adding riding counts, party candidate counts and party women candidate counts for each category.

As a note to the data, the ridings shown here in the "Nominations Progress" queries for the current election may be slightly different than the ones that appear when running the "Elections Pundit Queries" with the same names. This is because the latter looked at the electoral event in question. The former looks at the last electoral event for each riding.

For example, Outremont, QC was one of the 3 closest four-way races in 2006, yet it doesn't show up in the Nominations Progress query on 4-way races because the 2007 by-election was its last electoral event and that was not a 4-way race (however, the riding now shows up under First Time Incumbents). Similarly, Vancouver Quadra, BC now shows up as a 4-way race (it barely meets the mathematical criteria ... really it was a 2-way race for first place and a 2-way race for third place), which it wasn't at all in 2006.

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As your Guide was a golf widow last week, the lion's share of it could be spent fixing database performance issues, resolving some charting problems, and fixing various bugs that required some deeper concentration.

When I got bored or tired with that, I started looking up and adding web-site addresses where available for candidates in the above categories, or anywhere else that readers have sent me addresses for. As there are almost 1000 candidates identified to date, this will be a long, drawn-out process, so be patient ... and sending me any candidate web-site addresses you do have would be a big help. Or, you could invite my partner out golfing to give me more time to work.

Meantime I have a pretty long list of new functionality and new datasets I'd like to add to the database ... with one eye on the Parliamentary Calendar and one eye on the Election Fever Meter at National Newswatch (personally I think it should be a little higher than 20% though). If readers have suggestions for items they consider higher priorities than others and would like to see here soon, leave a comment, drop me a line, or stand by for a survey I'll try and compile for a separate blog post in the near future.

[UPDATE: I had to correct the criteria for the 3-way and 4-way race definitions, which were written far too late into the night.]

Labels: Data Analysis

As expected, Guelph, ON Liberal M.P., Brenda Chamberlain resigned her seat April 7. All four parties have candidates in place for an anticipated by-election should the government survive its remaining confidence tests this spring.

The resignation brings to three the number of seats currently vacant, including Westmount – Ville-Marie, QC, vacated by Liberal M.P. Lucienne Robillard, and Saint-Lambert, QC, vacated by Bloc Québecois M.P. Maka Kotto. In addition, Liberal M.P. John Godfrey's resignation takes effect on July 1, in Don Valley West, ON.

The NDP has yet to announce or nominate candidates in the two Québec ridings, while the Greens have yet to announce for Don Valley West and Saint-Lambert. The Conservatives and Liberals are nominated in all four. The Bloc Québecois has yet to pick candidates in either Québec riding.

The Prime Minister has until July 25, 2008 to call the first by-election in Westmount – Ville-Marie.

The riding profile pages for each constituency show the riding election results, campaign financial history, and census data from the 2001 census, depending on which tab is selected. For example, you can discover that in:

Westmount – Ville-Marie:

• the NDP transferred $15,000 into the riding in 2006
• the Conservatives spent less there in 2006 than in 2004
• the Liberals outspent all their opponents combined in 2006
• the Bloc and Conservatives switched places between 2004 and 2006, with the Bloc coming 4th behind the NDP, and the Conservatives moving into 2nd place
• the riding's population comprised 24% visible minorities in the 2001 census, including Chinese 5.9%, Arab 5.1% (the 4th highest concentration in Canada), 3.7% Black, and 2.4% South Asian
• at 51%, it had the highest proportion of university graduates of any riding in Canada in 2001, and the lowest proportion of trade certificate holders (at 4%)
• it had the 7th highest average family income, and the 9th highest average dwelling value, but also the 7th highest proportion of tenants

Saint-Lambert:

• the Bloc won the seat twice (in 2004 and 2006), in spite of being outspent by the Liberals both times
• Conservative spending doubled, but their vote tripled between the last two general elections
• the NDP and Greens both ran nominal campaigns financially
• the riding's visible minority population in 2001 was 9%, mainly Black 3%, Arab 1.2% and Chinese 1.1%
• 76% reported a mother tongue of French, 12% English and 9% another language
• it had more tenants (56%) than homeowners (44%) as residents, and ranked somewhere in the middle on most economic and labour force measures

Guelph:

• the Conservatives increased their spending in the riding over the past two elections, including a transfer from headquarters of almost half their spending in the last election
• the Liberals were able to win the seat without spending more than 3/4's of the limit in either of the last two elections
• the Greens raised and spent about one-third of the spending limit here in 2006, up from one-fifth in 2004, and achieved almost 9% of the vote
• the NDP spent a bit more than a third of the limit in 2006, and obtained 22% of the vote
• the riding had a spread of 16.4% between first and third place in 2006 (just over the 15% threshold for a "close 3-way race" as defined in this database)
• its visible minority population in 2001 was 12%, including 2.6% each Chinese and South Asian, and 1.3% each South East Asian and Black
• while most people worked in Sales and service occupations (22%) and Business, finance and administrative occupations (15%), it ranked in the top 10% of ridings nationally in terms of residents employed in occupations unique to processing, manufacturing and utilities (14%)

Don Valley West:

• the Liberals and Conservatives both spent close to the limit in 2004 and 2006, while the NDP and Greens ran very limited campaigns financially
• its visible minority population in 2001 was 39%, including South Asian 14.3%, Chinese 8.6%, Filipino 4.6%, Black 4%, West Asian 3% (5th highest concentration of any riding in Canada)
• it also had the highest proportion of followers of the Muslim faith of any riding nationally (13.6%)
• the riding had the 6th highest proportion of university graduates cross-Canada, and the Number 1 average individual income, average household income, and average family income of any riding in the country (Toronto Centre was #3 in average individual and average family income, and Vancouver Quadra was #6)
• it also had the 2nd highest average dwelling value in 2001 (the highest being Vancouver Quadra, and Toronto Centre ranking #5)

Labels: Don Valley West, Guelph, Saint-Lambert, Westmount-Ville Marie

Today's update concentrates on the Conservatives and NDP.

• The Conservatives have recently nominated two new candidates: Realtor Sam Rakhra in Burnaby – New Westminster, BC (now held by the NDP's Peter Julian) and party strategist Candice Hoeppner in Portage – Lisgar, MB (held by retiring Conservative M.P. Brian Pallister). This brings their number of nominated candidates up to 254, or 82%, including a full slate of 32 28 candidates in Alberta.
• Meantime, the NDP has been adding to its ranks across the country, with 178 identified candidates now in place. This represents 97% of their incumbent seats (Elmwood – Transcona, MB has yet to select retiring M.P. Bill Blaikie's replacement as candidate), as well as 74% of their previous second-place finishes, and 75% of their previous strong-third place finishes. To see these totals for every party, go to the "Search the Database" page (or click here), and select the "Current Election" query entitled "Nomination counts by party and previous rank for the 40th General Election".

Tomorrow, the Bloc Québecois and smaller parties.

Labels: 40th General Election Nominations

Vincent Marissal of La Presse published "the list" yesterday, and wrote about the background to the previous day's story here. I compared that list with names I had previously sourced, and discovered 8 new names of Liberal Québec candidates to add to the Pundits' Guide database.

Thus for those who are counting, out of 75 Québec ridings there are at least 43 Liberal candidates named or nominated at the moment.

Labels: 40th General Election Nominations, Liberals

Now that the by-elections are wrapped up, it seemed like a good time to catch up on all the nomination news. I've been working on a thorough review of all the public sources of data on nominations, starting with the Liberals and the Greens, and then will have a few other names to report as well.

Liberals:

• They have a full slate of nominated and/or publicly identified candidates in Newfoundland & Labrador and PEI, are off by 3 in Nova Scotia, and missing just 1 in New Brunswick.
• Across the west and the north, they have 2/3 candidates in place North of 60, 3/4's of their BC slate in place, all but 4 candidates in Alberta, half their slate in Saskatchewan, and 8 or 9 of 14 in Manitoba.
• Reflecting their strength in Ontario, some 93 of 106 candidates are lined up, with several more meetings scheduled in the next month.
• And then there's Québec. I have now documented 35 names of Liberal candidates in Québec from publicly available sources, including Elections Canada, Wikipedia, and Google News searches in both English and French (there are still no candidate names on the website of the Quebec section of the federal Liberal Party). My list is available here alongside the sources used for each name -- a methodology that is transparent and repeatable (by anyone willing to invest the time to do so). A little bird suggested this list might have been the one used by La Presse, but it could equally have been either of the candidate lists at Wikipedia, the list at NoDice.ca, or the reporter's own legwork. I guess we'll find out in our morning paper. [UPDATE: Nah, I didn't think it was my list anyway.]

Greens

• The Green Party's nomination process is the reverse of the other parties, inasmuch as the local riding nominates a candidate first, and then sends the name on to Ottawa for screening. As documented here previously, this has led to some delays in the publication of names on their website's Candidate List. I was contacted and assured that their numbers were much higher than this site was reporting. However, as with all other parties, I can't count 'em if I can't document 'em.
• Still, based on names I've assembled from Elections Canada, Wikipedia, the party's own web-site and Google searches, their slate is starting to fill out nicely in many parts of the country, although there are still some bare patches. Their best coverage is in Alberta and Ontario (co-incidentally sites of two recent provincial elections), while their thinnest showings to this point are in Saskatchewan and Québec. If their four by-elections candidates were indeed all running again, the numbers would be that much higher as well, however I couldn't tell if the listings I located were merely stale-dated.

The latest live counts of database nomination entries for each party, by province, are now located on the Guide's main page, and can also be found ... along with candidate counts by party rank in the last general election ... at the "Seach the Database" page (or click here).

Tomorrow night, the Conservatives, NDP and Bloc.

Labels: 40th General Election Nominations