Ridings with High Advanced Voting
David Akin and the Jurist have taken note of Elections Canada's release yesterday of Advanced Voting estimates for the current election. As David remarks, the overall totals are down from the 2006 General Election. However in the Accidental Deliberations blog, Jurist wonders if we might find another story in the differences in advance poll turn-out between ridings.
So, I decided to look at the raw Advanced Voting numbers expressed as a percent of the number of Electors for each riding (data I entered on the weekend, by the way, along with the final candidate and registered party spending limits).
When we rank the ridings and look at the Top 20, some interesting observations emerge:
So, I decided to look at the raw Advanced Voting numbers expressed as a percent of the number of Electors for each riding (data I entered on the weekend, by the way, along with the final candidate and registered party spending limits).
When we rank the ridings and look at the Top 20, some interesting observations emerge:
- 5 of those 20 ridings are in the Québec city area (Québec, Louis-Hébert, Louis-Saint-Laurent, Beauport – Limoilou, and Charlesbourg – Haute-Saint-Charles), and
- a good number of ridings on the list are said to be hotly contested in the current election, and/or changed hands during the last election, and moreover
- many will appear at the top of a couple of new Election Pundit Queries I'm adding in coming days: Ridings with the Highest Turnouts, and Ridings with the greatest increases in Turnout.
Top 20 Ridings by Percent of Electors who voted in the Advance Polls, 2008 General Election
| Adv TO | Prev Contest | Riding | Prev Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13.6% | Cons-BQ | Louis-Hébert, QC | 0.4% |
| 11.2% | Lib-Cons | Madawaska – Restigouche, NB | 2.4% |
| 11.2% | Cons-Lib | Parry Sound – Muskoka, ON | 0.1% |
| 11.2% | BQ-Cons | Trois-Rivières, QC | 14.2% |
| 11.1% | Lib-Cons | Beauséjour, NB | 15.3% |
| 11.0% | Lib-Cons | Mount Royal, QC | 47.7% |
| 10.7% | Cons-Lib | Carleton – Mississippi Mills, ON | 32.6% |
| 10.6% | Lib-Cons | Egmont, PE | 22.2% |
| 10.3% | Cons-BQ | Louis-Saint-Laurent, QC | 33.5% |
| 10.2% | Cons-BQ | Charlesbourg – Haute-Saint-Charles, QC | 2.8% |
| 10.2% | Cons-Lib | Nepean – Carleton, ON | 27.0% |
| 10.1% | BQ-Cons | Québec, QC | 11.8% |
| 10.1% | Cons-BQ | Beauport – Limoilou, QC | 1.7% |
| 10.0% | Lib-Cons | Charlottetown, PE | 16.0% |
| 10.0% | Lib-Cons | Thornhill, ON | 19.4% |
| 9.9% | Cons-Lib | Lanark – Frontenac – Lennox and Addington, ON | 26.3% |
| 9.8% | Lib-Cons | Nipissing – Timiskaming, ON | 10.2% |
| 9.7% | BQ-Cons | Laurentides – Labelle, QC | 33.5% |
| 9.6% | BQ-Lib | Brome – Missisquoi, QC | 10.4% |
| 9.6% | Cons-Lib | Prince Edward – Hastings, ON | 17.1% |
| 9.6% | Cons-Lib | Bruce – Grey – Owen Sound, ON | 20.6% |
| 9.5% | BQ-Cons | Saint-Bruno – Saint-Hubert, QC | 30.5% |
| 9.5% | Cons-Lib | Stormont – Dundas – South Glengarry, ON | 27.6% |
| 9.4% | Lib-Cons | Ottawa South, ON | 6.7% |
| 9.4% | NDP-Lib | Timmins – James Bay, ON | 16.3% |
Labels: 40th General Election, Turnout
posted by The Pundits' Guide at
4:36 PM
9 Comments:
Interesting that all of ridings in the top 20 of advanced voting are in eastern Canada (central, I guess, in Ontario's case). Any idea why? We have hotly contested ridings in BC, but not one showed up in the top 20.
Brenton, I don't have any idea why just now, but I post these kinds of numbers precisely because readers find questions to ask that I didn't think of myself while I was scrambling to compile them.
Ironically, Vancouver Quadra had the highest advanced turnout of any of the 4 spring by-elections, so it can't be anything to do with BC itself.
Anyways, thanks for asking. Perhaps someone else out there has a good theory?
It would be interesting to save this list and then check after the election to see if there's any correlative between advance turn-out and final turnout, or tossing out the incumbent, or anything like that.
CalgaryGrit: I'll do that. These are estimates of Advanced Voting, Elections Canada emphasizes. It would be a worthwhile exercise to collect the actuals retrospectively, to get some perspective on it as well, but that's not something I'm going to have time for before Election Day.
The prediction sites are everyone's focus right now, but stay tuned to the Pundits' Guide for the Monday-morning quarter-backing (well, Wednesday-morning really). In fact, we should have enough fodder for several weeks!
Sorry, I mean to say "It would be a worthwhile exercise to collect ALL the actuals retrospectively" (i.e., for all the past electoral events covered here).
Where does one find voter turn-out info by riding?
You mean on the web, brenton, or on the Pundits' Guide?
Voter turnout is calculated as the number of ballots cast (they use "total ballots" which includes rejected ballots as well as all the ballots validly cast for a candidate), divided by the number of electors on the voters list (aka "National List of Electors") for that riding, and expressed as a percentage.
So, get yourself a copy of the latest results from Elections Canada, dump it into a spreadsheet and away you go.
At the Pundits' Guide, %TO is short for "percent turnout" and is shown in a lot of different places. I mean to add an election pundit query soon showing ridings according to the highest/lower turnout, as well as those having the biggest increases and decreases in turnout. Soon.
Thanks for the link. Hours of entertainment, I'm sure.
I'll see about putting something together re: advanced polling and overall turn-out.
A few things I've noticed so far:
1) 19 of the ridings had voter turn-outs greater than the national average. The highest was 70.1%, the lowest was 51.3%.
2) 22 of the 25 seats were held by the incumbent party (didn't check about actual MPs).
3) 16 of 22 held seats saw an increase in the margin of victory. The average margin of victory in the held seats was 21.3, up from 18.4 in 2006.
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