0	–	Elected in 2006 Election
+1	–	(Blair WILSON from West Vancouver – Sunshine Coast – Sea to Sky Country, BC, resigned from the Liberal caucus, and crossed the floor to the Green Party just before the election was called)
1	–	Dissolution
-1	–	(Blair WILSON lost the seat to John WESTON; he came 4th)
0	–	Elected in 2008 Election

The Green Party obtained 5 second-place finishes in the 303 ridings it contested this time out. This represented an increase over the single 2nd place finish it achieved in 2006, notwithstanding that the party was not able to run a full slate for the first time in 3 general elections. Those five ridings were:

• Central Nova, NS (Leader Elizabeth MAY obtained 32.2% of the vote in the seat retained by Peter MACKAY)
• Bruce – Grey – Owen Sound, ON (Dick HIBMA obtained 27.2% of the vote in the seat retained by Larry MILLER)
• Wild Rose, AB (Lisa Marie FOX obtained 12.6% of the vote in the seat formerly held by retiring incumbent Myron THOMPSON, and won by Blake RICHARDS)
• Calgary Southeast, AB (Margaret CHANDLER obtained 10.2% of the vote in the seat retained by Jason KENNEY)
• Macleod, AB (Jared MCCOLLUM obtained 9% of the vote in the seat retained by Ted MENZIES)

In addition, Greens placed ahead of the Conservatives in two other ridings (Bloc Québécois Leader Gilles Duceppe's riding of Laurier – Sainte-Marie, QC, and NDP Leader Jack Layton's riding of Toronto – Danforth, ON), ahead of the NDP in 16 additional ridings (mainly in Calgary and rural and suburban Ontario), and ahead of the Liberals in a further 21 ridings - all in western Canada (in Calgary, rural Alberta, rural British Columbia and a few on the prairies).

Its candidates obtained the 10% or better vote share required to become eligible for election expense rebates in 41/303 ridings, 34 more than last time. However two ridings which had previously achieved rebate levels in 2006 (both held by the NDP), saw the Green Party's raw vote and vote share fall below 10%:

• Ottawa Centre, ON (Jennifer HUNTER obtained 9.9% of the vote in the seat retained by Paul DEWAR)
• British Columbia Southern Interior, BC (Andy MOREL obtained 9.6% of the vote in the seat retained by Alex ATAMANENKO)

Nationally the Green Party's percentage of the vote increased by 2.3 points to 6.8%, and their share of the vote increased in 248/308 ridings. It was, moreover, the only major party to increase its raw vote (and thus its per-vote public funding subsidy) over the 2006 general election results.

No party owns votes or is owed the votes of another party, and participation in the electoral process as a candidate is the right of every Canadian citizen. However, for those who will ask whether the Green Party obtained more votes than the margin of victory in a riding that changed hands, only two cases can be found in the most recent unofficial results from Elections Canada:

• London West, ON, where Liberal M.P. Sue Barnes' vote share declined by 2.3 percentage points, Green Party candidate Monica Jarabek's vote share increased by 5.0 percentage points, and Barnes lost the seat to Conservative Ed Holder by 3.7% of the vote. However, Holder also increased the Conservative vote share by 3.6 percentage points, so it's hard to argue that the Green vote was decisive here.
• Vancouver Island North, ON, where NDP M.P. Catherine Bell's vote share declined by 0.3 percentage points, Green Party candidate Philip Stone increased the party's vote share by 5.2 percentage points, and Bell lost the seat to Conservative John Duncan by 4.3% of the vote. Again, Duncan increased his party's vote share by 5.2%, so the Green vote was by no means the only factor.

In the case of London West, the Green Party's growth appears more likely to have come at the expense of the NDP, leaving Liberal-Conservative switching the more likely cause of Barnes' defeat.

On the other hand, in Vancouver Island North the Liberal vote had already fallen from 21.5% in 2004 to 12.8% in 2006, and collapsed even further in 2008 to just 4.2%, splitting more or less equally in 2008 between the Greens and Conservatives. Had it held, Bell might be the MP instead.

I'll leave readers to drawn their own conclusions about whether so-called "strategic voting" had or might have had any effect on the outcomes or desired outcomes in these ridings. What I take away from these two examples is that it's very difficult to apply national assumptions about how votes might switch to the local circumstances in different parts of the country.

Labels: 40th General Election, Greens